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Will Former Prince Andrew’s Arrest Prompt More Legal Action in the U.S.? | Pivot

Kara and Scott discuss the arrest of former Prince Andrew as pressure mounts from the Epstein files, and Mark Zuckerberg’s testimony in the social media addictio n trials. Then, Stephen Colbert takes on Paramount and the FCC, Warner Bros. Discovery reopens merger talks with Paramount, and The Pentagon weighs cutting ties with Anthropic. #pivot #podcast #karaswisher #scottgalloway #epstein #AndrewMountbattenWindsor #colbert #paramount #pentagon #anthropic #fcc #warnerbros 00:00 Intro 2:40 Former Prince Andrew Arrested 11:42 Zuckerberg Testifies 27:02 Colbert’s Talarico Interview 32:31 Warner Bros. Restarts Paramount Talks 45:15 Pentagon vs. Anthropic 51:35 Predictions Producers: Lara Naaman Zoë Marcus Taylor Griffin Video Producer: Manolo Moreno Vox Media's Executive Producer of Podcasts: Nishat Kurwa Visit www.resistandunsubscribe.com Subscribe to Pivot on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/pivot/id1073226719 Subscribe to Pivot on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4MU3RFGELZxPT9XHVwTNPR Follow us on Instagram and Threads at: https://www.instagram.com/pivotpodcastofficial/ Follow us on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@PIVOTPODCAST Send us your questions by calling us at 855-51-PIVOT, or email pivot@voxmedia.com

Scott GallowayhostKara Swisherhost
Feb 20, 20261h 5mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:002:40

    Intro

    1. SG

      I think the UK just demonstrated more institutional courage in one morning than the entire US Department of Justice has managed in five years. [upbeat music]

    2. KS

      Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

    3. SG

      And I'm Scott Galloway.

    4. KS

      And I am a trad wife.

    5. SG

      What does that mean?

    6. KS

      I made bread and butter this morning, butter from scratch, and I made this delicious bread. Let me unwrap my bread.

    7. SG

      Yeah, you're really proud of it. You sent me a, a photo of it.

    8. KS

      I know. Well, I... You know, I made it. I, I, I know it sounds really stupid, but I get [chuckles] I, I'm on Instagram... Here's the whole bread. You can see it. Everybody see it. It's a, it's a loaf. It's a baguette. This today is a baguette.

    9. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    10. KS

      And I also made butter with a marble and a jar and some heavy cream, uh, last night at dinner, fresh butter. I'm going to make cultured butter next. Um, I, I get on Instagram, and I'm obsessed with watching, uh, food videos.

    11. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    12. KS

      And I save them, and I'm starting to make all of [chuckles] -

    13. SG

      What's the next thing you're gonna make?

    14. KS

      Uh, we're gonna probably make another bread. Bread-- We're going for bread and butter. We like bread and butter 'cause I'm a trad wife, so anyway. There you go.

    15. SG

      Yeah. No, I think I like that white supremacist baking company, and-

    16. KS

      [laughing]

    17. SG

      ... he said that his family had a long history of being inbred.

    18. KS

      [laughing] Ah!

    19. SG

      Get it?

    20. KS

      Oh, I can't believe you have a bread joke. Um, I have to say, it takes me out of, um-

    21. SG

      Takes you out of your head.

    22. KS

      Out of my head.

    23. SG

      Yeah, it's relaxing.

    24. KS

      Like, I, it was an ex- it was advice, you know, from doing-

    25. SG

      Mm

    26. KS

      ... this series that's coming out. I t- I spend too much time in my head, and so Zeke Emanuel suggested... He makes honey. I was like: "I'm gonna do things that isn't in my head," and I have to say, um, uh, baking is really chemical... You know, it's, you have to pay attention, and I'm learning, and so it's-- And it's totally, you cannot pick up... I mean, I have the phone there with the rest as they're talking to me, but it's a useful use of the phone, I guess. I don't know what else to say. Anyway, I really like it.

    27. SG

      So two muffins are in the oven when one turns to the other and says: "Man, it's so hot in here today." And the other muffin, and the other muffin says, "Holy shit, it's a fucking talking muffin."

    28. KS

      [laughing] I can't believe you have bakery jokes.

    29. SG

      Kara, my wife has been sleeping around with other men. Our church pastor is coming over tonight to offer advice, and my wife is baking cookies, but I'm embarrassed because the cookies are homemade. [laughing] I could do this all night.

    30. KS

      Why do you have them? Are you on the... Did you suddenly get on the internet and said, "Baking jokes?" Is that what happened there?

  2. 2:4011:42

    Former Prince Andrew Arrested

    1. KS

      today, so let's dig in. Um, this is an astonishing development. Former Prince, uh, Prince Andrew has been... We call him former Prince Andrew right now, uh, uh, used to be known as Prince, has been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office by British police. Uh, you know, w- he should be arrested for something else, but this is what they could get him on. The full details of the arrest are not clear at the time of the taping, but former prince has been under increasing pressure after the latest release of the Epstein files. Andrew Mountbatten, Mountbatten-Windsor, which is his name, was previously stripped of his royal title due to his, uh, involvement with Epstein, mean- finally, after many, many years of this. Meanwhile, Casey Wasserman has decided to put his talent agency and marketing firm up for sale amidst criticism, his past relationship with Ghislaine Maxwell. Uh, there's a ton of people, Dink. There's-- So I sent you the list of people that are, you know, obviously, um, uh... Larry, what's his name? Larry, oh, Summers, uh, ha- stepped down. Dean Kamen i- is having trouble. He's the famous robotics guy. Um, all, all manner of people, n- uh, the former Prime Minister of Norway, um, everyone but the guy who said, "They let you do it." Uh, Grab the Pussy guy is not being investigated, but, uh, this is really interesting. So from... You're not in England right now, but-

    2. SG

      Mm-hmm

    3. KS

      ... what, explain to people y- what this is like, th- what this, this is akin to arresting a royal.

    4. SG

      I think the UK just demonstrated more institutional courage in one morning than the entire US Department of Justice has managed in five years.

    5. KS

      Yep. Yep.

    6. SG

      And it's just ironic. And, um, you know, my attitude is, okay, now do Epstein's flight logs. [chuckles]

    7. KS

      Mm-hmm. Yep.

    8. SG

      This is, I mean, some of it's probably pretty political. The, the Crown is probably looking to try and renew their brand in an era where monarchies-

    9. KS

      Mm-hmm

    10. SG

      ... are fading. This really is the last monarchy. And also, the Prime Minister is feeling heat and potentially calls for his resignation, but I think that, I think the UK, quite frankly, is actually showing some fidelity to the notion that no one is above the law.

    11. KS

      Yep, absolutely. I, I agree. One of the things that's really, that's really important is the investigation should have gone on, these investigations that should have happened, whe- how badly prosecutors over the entire period of time, um, from down in Florida to now, have fucked this up. And in terms of, I think, the moment with Pam Bondi, and she had never talked to those people. Like, all of them are liars? Like, I don't know. Why don't you do an investigation? And so she's obviously not going to because she's bought and paid for. But, um, but the fact that they didn't do investigations here on, as you say, the people who are criminally liable and the other people who are getting... You know, Bill Gates had to pull out of something because of this. Uh, look, that'll play itself out because that's about- I don't think it's about shaming. It's about like, ugh, bad judgment. People are gonna have to pay for their actions e- eventually. Um, but the criminal investigations that haven't gone on here, the, the ability... And I have to say, we owe a debt of gratitude to, uh, uh, Ro Khanna and Thomas Massey for pushing-

    12. SG

      Agree

    13. KS

      ... this through. And w- we need, and the, the redactions that this Bondi Justice Department is doing are, you know, they're... Ted Lieu, who is a l- a, a trained lawyer, got up and said: "There's credible evidence that Donald Trump..." Um, this is what he is saying. I have not seen these things that he, he, uh, he, he-... has actually, uh, attacked, sexual-- what is the right way to do?

    14. SG

      Assaulted?

    15. KS

      Assaulted a, an underage girl, and for him to get up and say that at, knowing that he's a lawyer is really something. Like, w- and of course, Trump is saying he's exonerated. He's not exonerated. He hasn't been investigated properly, right? And so, you know, when he said... Let me just read this again, "Maybe, just maybe, um, a- as this fetid penny drops, maybe it wasn't locker room talk," right? Do you remember that?

    16. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    17. KS

      I mean, this is what he said. Let me read it: "I don't even wait, and when you're a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything." I don't know if he did anything, but I'd like to have investigators really... I don't know if they need a, an, um, independent investigator or-

    18. SG

      A special counsel, yeah.

    19. KS

      A special-- To me, I never like those things, but in this case, everybody's dirty, right? And certainly, Pam Bondi has no business being in the job she's in. They should, they should have a special counsel release all the files and especially the criminal stuff. Keep it as, maybe not release those because they really need to-- and it might not lead to anything, but to show that we have what the UK is doing, and it, there may be a statute of limitations, by the way, Scott, on this stuff.

    20. SG

      Well, but that's-

    21. KS

      I don't know.

    22. SG

      ... that's what's kind of interesting about this specific case with Prince Andrew is that-

    23. KS

      Mm-hmm

    24. SG

      ... or the person formerly known as Prince [chuckles] -

    25. KS

      Yeah

    26. SG

      ... the-

    27. KS

      I know it is kind of funny, but he's not funny. He's gross, but go ahead.

    28. SG

      But when, when the feds come for you and say: You've clearly committed, engaged in criminal activity here, they usually don't get you for what, you know... They didn't, they got Al Capone for money laundering or for, for-

    29. KS

      No, no, for tax, tax evasion.

    30. SG

      Yeah, for tax evasion.

  3. 11:4227:02

    Zuckerberg Testifies

    1. KS

      this: everyone's tired of these fucking rich people taking everything. Like-

    2. SG

      Yeah

    3. KS

      ... so right now, Mark Zuckerberg took the stand this week that the, in this landmark social media addiction trial, defending Meta against claims Instagram was designed to hook young users and damage mental health. Zuckerberg said in his testimony that Instagram was not a harmful product. It's a valuable service. Of course, he'd say that. He's said that all along. He believes he's navigated the safety of young users in a reasonable way. He has not. He also defended the company's decision to allow beauty filters even after experts warned they could harm teen girls, including people internally. Um, when pressed about old emails and growth targets, Zuckerberg repeatedly pushed back, saying the same answer more than a dozen times: "You're mischaracterizing this." This is an old Mark Zuckerberg trick. We don't understand him. Uh, well, neither of us are lawyers, and it's a really complex case, and what, what, what... Two things: it's not just Facebook, it is also YouTube is involved in this one. Others settled. Other social media sites seem to have settled here. Um, so, and it's not clear if YouTube is gonna settle before this, but this idea of, of whether they're entertainment or they're actually addictive, the lawyers for the, the tech-... company's sides are gonna try to portray this young woman who got on Instagram when she was nine as troubled, had nothing to do with social media. She's alleging that social media dragged her down a addictive hole of shame and self-esteem. Um, it's a jury trial. Um, uh, I, I'm-- putting Mark in front of a jury helps or hurts. He's, he's not great at that, and he also, the judge wasn't happy to see Meta's Ray-Ban AI glasses worn by several members of Zuckerberg's team, which I thought was super fucking obnoxious to do, for Zuckerberg-

    4. SG

      Mm-hmm

    5. KS

      -to use it as a marketing event. Um, she warned anyone wearing smart glasses to be held in contempt, noting concern about facial recognition o- of the j-- uh, of it. Um, so just thoughts on this case? 'Cause I think it's really fa-- there's, there's thousands of more behind it, by the way.

    6. SG

      I think Jon Ossoff, who's running for Senate, has come up with a brilliant term, and that is a lot of Democra-- How we lose is this stereotyping and, and keyboard virtue signaling that if you like, all white people are racist, all billionaires are evil, and all young men are sexist, fine, they're gonna leave the party, and we're gonna... and you're gonna have Vance as president. What Ossoff has done is really smart. He has started describing this group of people as, he doesn't say the billionaire class, he says the Epstein class. Because the majority of Americans like the idea of being rich someday and believe that if they get richer, it doesn't necessarily mean they're gonna become depraved weirdos. So I think that is a really powerful distinction, that there is a class of people-- M- most rich people I do not believe are like this, but there is [chuckles] a class of people who believe they are, again, as we talked about-

    7. KS

      Unaccountable

    8. SG

      ... um, protected by the law, but not bound by it. There's smoking guns everywhere, but the, the real smoking gun I would focus on if I were advising the prosecution is their own internal research.

    9. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SG

      So let's go through it. Body image-

    11. KS

      It's, it's not a prosecution, it's a, it's a law, civil lawsuit.

    12. SG

      It's civil. But the pe- but the people, the plaintiff's attorney or whatever you would call... It, their own internal research regarding body image harm, "We make body image issues worse for one in three teen girls." This is according to a twenty nineteen internal Meta presentation. Thirty-two percent of teen girls said that when they felt bad about their bodies, Instagram made them feel worse. That was a March twenty twenty internal presentation. Meta's leaked internal research showed that thirty-two percent of teen girls, one-third, said Instagram made them feel worse about their bodies, and the company knew it. Addiction by design, Meta employee internal message: "I, I worry that driving sess- session incentivize us to make our products more addictive without providing much more value. How to keep someone returning over and over to the same behavior each day? Question mark. Intermittent rewards are most effective, think slot machines. In focus groups, teens told us they didn't like the amount of time they spent on the app, and they felt like they had to be present. They often felt addicted and know that what they're seeing is bad for their mental health, but feels-- but they feel unable to stop themselves." On depression and anxiety, "Teens blame Instagram for increases in the rate of anxiety and depression," said another slide in a twenty nineteen presentation. This reaction was unprompted and consistent across all groups. This is their own research.

    13. KS

      They also, their own research showed they have four million kids between ten and twelve on the platform, when it's not supposed to be... Thirteen is when they're not-- They didn't have age, age verification, which isn't very good anyway, on the platform until two thousand nineteen. They n- this is what kills me with these people. It's like, how did, how did four million... It's like, oh, four million kids got into liquor stores somehow. Are you fucking kidding me, four million kids? How did that happen without them knowing it, when they know everything that is happening on that platform? Whenever they go into this, "I don't, uh, you know, kids can get into things, you know. My kid just got into the refrigerator and took a, you know, took a cookie the other day." That's what they act like. And in their own-- Uh, let me tell you, I can't tell you how many times I have harangued Mark Zuckerberg on safety, and people inside the company harangued him on safety. He just didn't agree, and because he, uh, cannot be fired, if the board [chuckles] decides to fire him, he can fire the board and appoint a new board that likes him. He, he can make decisions on his own, and we are all subject to decisions of one person who has no accountability on him becau- been making bad decisions, whether it's about antisemitism, whether it's about, uh, anything, and he always-- and he did this again. I, "I si- I sighed for free speech or not, you know, the filter thing." Uh, like, "Well, I decided not to act paternalistic." Okay, Mark, don't act paternalistic to, toward adult users. We get it, but you absolutely have to act paternalistic towards young people. Like, the, uh, the safety issues about young-- The fact that they still stick to their idiotic guns when it comes to young people... Let me mention another big tech suit that just broke. Apple just got sued by West Virginia for alleged failure to curb child sexual abuse materials on iOS devices and cloud services. They should sue Grok. They should sue all of them for these things. And this is the way these companies are going to go down, like the cigarette companies. And they still, to me, uh, and I'll stop ranting, his testimony show me once again, he is absolutely intractable in his decision that everything he decides is correct, and he-- it is simply not. It is simply not. And l- let me be fair, YouTube is bigger, but I f- uh, uh, it's all the same to me. They're all enormous and deleterious to the impact on our kids, period.

    14. SG

      Just one more piece of data. Between 2010 and 2015, the number of eighth grade through twelfth graders exhibiting high levels of depressive symptoms increased by thirty-three percent. In the same period, the suicide rate for girls in that age group increased by sixty-five percent.... By twenty fifteen, ninety-two percent of teens owned a smartphone. And today, here and now, let's talk a little bit about young men. Young men between the ages of twenty and thirty are spending less time outdoors than prison inmates. The data here, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of families whose kids have killed themselves. There are millions of families struggling with anxiety and depression, and there's a lot of different factors here, but this definitively has made things worse. The, the good news is that I do think finally, and I've said this before, and I've been wrong, but I'm gonna say it again: [chuckles] I think the worm has turned, and that is typically it takes twenty to thirty years before the public moves in on a well-funded, addictive substance that is creating harm across our society. It took us thirty years with tobacco. It took us twenty years with opiates. It looks like it's gonna take us about twenty years here. But what you're seeing is it's getting tied up in politics in sort of a good way, and that is, I think the tariffs, I think the ultimate reciprocal tariff from different nations is gonna be, they're gonna start banning, uh, US tech companies, and they're gonna use this as a valid excuse. They're gonna say, "You're out. We're age-gating, we're banning this," or where they're gonna ban an entire platform. But it does feel like we're, we are at a turning point.

    15. KS

      Well, the only th-- This is a jury trial. This is what's really interesting because what I think is gonna be the problem for them is... And by the way, sometimes, like, when some of the, the FTC stuff, I see why Facebook or whatever company won in certain ones of them, right? But jury members, either they have kids and get it, know it at, in their bones-

    16. SG

      Oh, yeah.

    17. KS

      -or they themselves are addicted. And you call it problematic usage when it's everybody who you... I'm addicted to food videos on your, on Threads, Mark. I can't stop watching them, and I am not an addictive-- I don't drink. I don't take drugs. I am a- absolutely addicted. There is no question-

    18. SG

      Tell me about it

    19. KS

      ... in my mind, and same with you, right?

    20. SG

      Oh.

    21. KS

      Some of it's good. Some of it's good, and I use-- Most of the time, I use... I was looking at the time spent. I use it for texting, like bothering you, for example. But, um, but a lot of it is addiction, and this jury is going to hand you your head if you keep insisting it's problematic usage. We don't think you're totally at fault. I'm sure this, this poor girl had problems in her family life, but this is a contributing factor. Just like people can have bad families and smoke cigarettes, i- it is, it is part of a, of, of a, a thing that is making us worse as, as, as a country. Um, and the same thing with Apple. They should get sued. They should all get sued, and then we can have it out in court. Same thing with the Epstein victims and, and the peop- and the perpetrators. Let's have it all out in court. Let's do it. Like, if we lose, we lose, but if we win, we win, and that, to me, is the fairest thing.

    22. SG

      I think we'll-- I think it'll start with the kids.

    23. KS

      Mm-hmm, yes.

    24. SG

      What I'm curious is if it starts to melt upwards, and that is-

    25. KS

      Like cigarettes.

    26. SG

      Well, the kids are the biggest problem, right?

    27. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    28. SG

      And that's the one we're most sensitive to. I also think-

    29. KS

      That's where cigarettes started, but go ahead.

    30. SG

      I, I also think there's a real issue around the coarsening of our discourse. I think it's making us all more anxious and making us all hate each other more. I think i- i- if, if you type into OpenAI how to ruin youth or how to undermine the power of the United States, b- both times it'll come back with something that resembles social media. There's just people-- There's a reason, and a lot of it's economic, that young people feel worse and worse about America, but social media is basically... It's like when you're in the third grade and two kids start having words, and everyone surrounds them and shoves them and says, "Fight, fight," encourages them to fight. That's happening a trillion times a day on these platforms. It's turning, even amongst, I'm spending a lot-- I'm thinking a lot about how ways the left might fuck it up and lose in twenty-six and twenty-eight, and one of those w- one of those ways is the algorithms do a really good job of convincing people who agree on ninety percent of things to find the ten percent they don't agree on and figure out a way to get them fighting and hating each other. You know, it's just, it really is ripping at the fabric of society. I, I, I think our adversaries are sitting back and watching this and just loving it.

  4. 27:0232:31

    Colbert’s Talarico Interview

    1. KS

      we're back. Late night host Stephen Colbert is calling out CBS and his parent company, Paramount, for not standing up to the bullies. Colbert revealed this week that CBS lawyers told him he could not air an interview with Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico. Uh, there were concerns about running afoul of FCC Chairman Brandon Carr, The Moron, as I like to call him, and the FCC's equal time rule. Colbert ended up posting the interview on YouTube, where, as of this recording, it has nearly seven point five million views. The broadcast typically gets around two point five million viewers. This is just one single interview. Colbert summed up the irony on his Tuesday episode. Let's listen. [audience cheering]

    2. SP

      So we obeyed our network and put the interview on YouTube, where it's gotten millions of views. [audience cheering] And, and I, I can see why. Talarico is an interesting guy. I don't know what-- if he should be the senator, but it was a good discussion. I wish we could have put it on the show, where no one would have watched it. [audience laughing]

    3. KS

      Uh, CBS initially, they've been very quiet lately, has been pushing back on Colbert's version of events, saying the show was not prohibited from airing the Talarico and UNTV, but was given legal guidance and options. [chuckles] I've been in that sphere. Colbert took issue with that statement, calling it crap, and it indeed is crap. All of this has been a major boost for Talarico, who said, who raised more than two point five million, uh, dollars in the first twenty-four hours after the interview went on YouTube. Uh, Brandon Carr, The Moron, is calling it a hoax, by the way, saying Talarico did this for the purpose of raising money and getting clicks. Except he then, uh, on this interview he did, I think it was on Fox, uh, said: "Oh, I would have enforced it." So he said he would have done what they, what, what Colbert said he would have done, um, and then also noted that this fair, this, this-- the way he's in- trying to thinking about enforcing this equal time rule i- has not been done in forever. So he just admitted every... Calling it a hoax, and then admitted he was gonna do exactly what they said he was gonna do. Again, a moron. Um, and he thought, "This is, like, some story," like, and I love-- Colbert, I think, is handling it beautifully. I don't think he's being too virtue signaling, but it is definitely a nail in the coffin for broadcast television.

    4. SG

      If we just to step back and try and understand the real dynamics and the, the, the shape of power here, because we've moved from a democracy and capitalism to an autocracy and kleptocracy, this is what's going on. The President has made it clear he will exercise his authority unilaterally and illegally, in my view, to decide who gets to acquire which companies. And essentially, he has decided that, okay, um, if the Ellisons, who own Paramount and CBS, fly their partisan pro-Trump flag, I will figure out a way to get them Time Warner. And so they are very sensitive to trying to not offend him, placate him, do whatever he wants, regardless of the First Amendment, and the, the excuse they're using is the following: The FCC's equal time rule is a federal law that requires broadcast stations to provide equivalent air t- time to all legally qualified candidates for the same political office. Uh, that theoretically makes sense, right? Historically, though, the FCC has exempted many entertainment talk shows, and now they've decided to update this, and they're selectively enforcing it. And by the way, folks, curiously, FCC Chairman Carr has not yet attempted to apply these rules to any conservative- [chuckles]

    5. KS

      No, he hasn't.

    6. SG

      Talk shows.

    7. KS

      He's, he's sued the... He's, he's investigating The View, just on ABC, for having Talarico on.

    8. SG

      Oh, yeah, The View and Colbert. [chuckles] Anyway, this is-

    9. KS

      By the way, Colbert has had Jasmine Crockett on-

    10. SG

      This is so-

    11. KS

      And has probably asked right-wing people.

    12. SG

      This is so ridiculous, but this is what has happened. There's a decent chance that FCC Chair Carr-... has given, uh, Representative Talarico a decent shot at being a senator in Texas now.

    13. KS

      Yep. Yeah, he has.

    14. SG

      This has done nothing but bolster-- Talarico raised two and a half million dollars-

    15. KS

      Yeah, right

    16. SG

      ... in the subsequent forty-eight hours.

    17. KS

      Yeah.

    18. SG

      The, the big loser here is the FCC and Trump. This has backfired. This has blown up in their face.

    19. KS

      Yeah, well, he's a moron.

    20. SG

      The Ellisons-

    21. KS

      Yeah

    22. SG

      ... the Ellisons are now, now sitting on top of a collapsing-

    23. KS

      Collapsing

    24. SG

      ... asset.

    25. KS

      Right. Yeah, I agree.

    26. SG

      Uh, and in addition, the other loser here, just quite frankly, is Jasmine Crockett, because she, she came out, uh, it, unfortunately, this has elevated Talarico and Colbert to hero status, and Crockett wishes she was the one that got, you know, that got sort of blacklisted, right? 'Cause they were running neck and neck, and the likelihood, according to the prediction markets, that-

    27. KS

      Well, it wasn't quite neck and neck. It was like sixty, forty, and now it's seventy.

    28. SG

      It was pretty close, I think.

    29. KS

      No, no, the prediction markets were-- he was winning quite substantively-

    30. SG

      Well, he went-

  5. 32:3145:15

    Warner Bros. Restarts Paramount Talks

    1. KS

      Warner Brothers Discovery is reopening negotiations with Paramount for the best and final offer, but the clock is ticking. Netflix has granted Warner a seven-day waiver for these Paramount talks. The deadline is February twenty-third. Uh, Zaslav wrote to Paramount's board that, uh, David Zaslav, who's the CEO of Warner, uh, "welcomes the opportunity to see whether the company can expeditiously deliver a proposal that provides superior value," meaning he's not calling it superior value. Paramount has indicated it will raise its bid to thirty-one dollars a share and has agreed to cover Warner's two point five billion dollar breakup fee owed, uh, to Netflix, which it should have done in the first fucking place. A lot of these things they've just agreed to, they should have done months ago. Uh, Netflix C-- co-CEO Ted Sarandos explained why he agreed to this in an interview with CNBC. Let's listen.

    2. SP

      [whooshing sound] We've given the opportunity to give, get those shareholders exactly what they deserve, which is complete clarity and certainty about what the value of these deals are. And what we're certain is, is that the Netflix deal to acquire these assets is the best deal, creates-- it generates the best value for their shareholders, and they think so, too. That's why they recommended the deal and why they reiterated recommending that deal post this. So give them seven days to put their money where their mouth is.

    3. KS

      [whooshing sound] He's so smart, [chuckles] I gotta say. The other part, before you go in, um, uh, they have to, they have to, basically, they have to give more money. Really, that's-- if they give more money, they'll probably get it. That said, there's been a really, y- you know, even though most of the narrative has been anti-Netflix, with Paramount has done quite a bit of the m- making that happen, uh, this idea that they will have to cut, uh, Paramount will be disastrous because they're gonna have to cut because of the finances here. They will, they will decimate, um, employment in [chuckles] Hollywood, and Netflix will not. And, uh, there are-- Uh, both of them face different challenges, uh, both regulatory and what's gonna happen. Warner Brothers has scheduled a shareholder vote on the Netflix deal for March twentieth. Um, we'll see what happens. Uh, David Ellison was at the White House last week, by the way, this after Trump said in an interview he wasn't involved in the deal. Who knows? Um, and let me link this to Anderson Cooper. He's leaving 60 Minutes, which is a CBS property, after twenty years. Uh, he's still at CNN, of course. He'd signed a big deal, an eighteen million dollar deal with them recently. So if this deal w- works out for Paramount, they could take Warner's cable properties, and Anderson might find him-self back. Uh, the reason he did so was he said he was to spend time with his family. He didn't want to work with Barry Weiss, but I know this to be [chuckles] true. Um, he didn't like where s- uh, 60 Minutes was going, and he, he also didn't like what was happening to his colleagues. He's a, he's a great journalist, and he just didn't want to work with these people, so, 'cause he thinks... I, I would assume he thinks they're lesser than, and, and they are compared to him. So, uh, another high-profile exit, not just Anderson. Taylor Sheridan left, uh, who does Yellowstone. Um, a lot of messes there, both in the news division and obviously with Colbert. He's-- He'll be leaving in May. Uh, your thoughts on, on these two things with the Ellisons? They seem to be really-- They may still win it, but boy, they look like idiots.

    4. SG

      Well, first off, the way this is supposed to work in a capitalist-

    5. KS

      Yeah

    6. SG

      ... society is the person who shows up with the biggest bag of money-

    7. KS

      Correct

    8. SG

      ... gets preliminary approval by the shareholders-

    9. KS

      Mm-hmm

    10. SG

      ... and then it goes under regulatory review to make sure that-

    11. KS

      Mm-hmm

    12. SG

      ... there's not too great a concentration of power. In my view, neither of these companies should be [chuckles] able to acquire Warner Brothers-

    13. KS

      Yes, I know you agree

    14. SG

      ... because it's too much concentration of power. Having said that-

    15. KS

      Yeah

    16. SG

      ... this is the world we live in. One of them is gonna get it. What's interesting is that it's clearly s- now such a kleptocracy that on Kalshi, the likelihood that Paramount takes over WBB, WBD, 'cause it has become obvious that the president is doing the Ellisons' bidding, is now fifty-three percent, and Netflix's odds have fallen to just thirty-six percent. So, [scoffs] uh, Paramount-

    17. KS

      It's neck and neck on Polymarket, just so you know, but I-

    18. SG

      Paramount has sweetened the deal. They agreed to pay a two point eight billion dollar fee that WB, WBD would owe Netflix if the merger agreement-

    19. KS

      Mm-hmm

    20. SG

      ... falls apart. They also added a, uh, ticking fee of twenty-five cents per share paid to Warner shareholders for every quarter that the deal isn't closed starting next year, and the total cash bid was raised to seventy-eight billion back in December. Here's what I don't understand. The union, SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild, decide to strike at exactly the wrong moment a coup- cou- couple years ago and basically took everyone's-- uh, had everyone not work for seven months in order to get nothing in exchange when they... They decided to strike at a weak point, and yet now-... A- a- you just referenced this. If the Ellisons own, they've already overpaid for Paramount, which looks to be through a series of-

    21. KS

      Leaky yacht. I call it a leaky yacht.

    22. SG

      Which looks to be just one after the other, creating self-inflicted wounds, that they just unforced errors, ungoals, whatever you wanna call it, that are substantially reducing the equity value and showing how much, uh, they did in fact, overpay, whether it's CBS News going from five million viewers to four million in one week after the anchor transition. S- uh, 60 Minutes might go away.

    23. KS

      Right.

    24. SG

      I mean, these things literally-

    25. KS

      Why would you stick-- why would you poke that in the eye? That actually was successful. Oh, yi, yi.

    26. SG

      So they've overpaid for Paramount. They're probably gonna have to overpay, and I understand why, the rationale for Warner, such that they can get something resembling consolidation. But hey, hey, Writers Guild, hey, SAG-AFTRA, what the fuck do you think Ellison, one of the largest providers of inference and compute for AI, what do you think their idea is going to be to rationalize costs and somehow get a return on investment here? What do you think is gonna ha-? Say what you want about Ted Sarandos, he's a disciplined operator. He likes the old Hollywood model.

    27. KS

      Yeah.

    28. SG

      He likes-

    29. KS

      Well, some of it. Some of it he likes, some of it he doesn't, let's be fair.

    30. SG

      Yeah, but he's not... Oh, my God!

  6. 45:1551:35

    Pentagon vs. Anthropic

    1. KS

      Scott, we're back with more news. There's so much news, it's all different. The Pentagon is considering cutting ties with Anthropic amid a dispute over how Claude can be used by the military. Anthropic wants limits on uses like for weaponry that fires without human input and mass, uh, des- des- domestic surveillance. Seems reasonable, but the Pentagon wants access for all lawful purposes. OpenAI, Google, and xAI have agreed to have models deployed in a lawful use cases in principle. Pete Hegseth is reportedly also considering labeling Anthropic a supply chain risk, which could force contractors seeking to work with the US military to stop using Claude. Senior Pentagon officials said the change would be a pain in the ass, and the Pentagon would make sure Anthropic pays a price. Pete Hegseth is a fucking idiot. He just actually let go of someone who was an incredible, um... He, he forced out this, a colonel who had this incredible record 'cause, just 'cause he's competent. Um, w- really interesting, there was just a picture from, I think it was India, where the Anthropic CEO and Sam Altman wouldn't hold [chuckles] hands for a second together, which was funny. They're in a big beef, but that's a separate beef. Um, this is really interesting. I'd love to know what you think about this because they're not- they're standing firm, it looks like. Anthropic is like, "We're not gonna be used, you know, to attack humans without a human intervention or domestic surveillance, et cetera."

    2. SG

      Yeah, so the, the Pentagon, they're threatening to se- se-- they're threatening to sever its two hundred million dollar relationship with Anthropic because-

    3. KS

      Yeah, not big. Not too big.

    4. SG

      Because the AI firm insists on maintaining limitations on how the mil- military uses their LLM. Uh, Anthropic's red lines are no mass surveillance of Americans and no fully autonomous weaponry, right? So, uh, but [exhales] this is a, yet another example of a, a loss of capitalism. This is technically a very severe form of socialism, and that is the state has decided they control the means of production. Private companies are allowed to have their own guidelines, and if those guidelines mean they can't work with a military contractor, they, they get to make that decision. So this is-- and them trying to shame them and threaten them economically is the worst type of socialism. So all of these, quote, unquote, "free market" people claiming, uh, this is... Private companies, uh, Vox gets to decide if it doesn't want to work with the Pentagon. [chuckles] A- and so i- if they sign a contract, fine, they have to live up to their contract, but i- i- the fact that Anthropic has these guidelines, I again think this is a bit of a cold bear moment for Anthropic, and that is Anthropic has starts their hat white in an environment where the majority of Americans feel really uneasy about AI.

    5. KS

      Yeah.

    6. SG

      So Anthropic has sort of positioned itself as the-

    7. KS

      Yeah, like you said

    8. SG

      ... clean, well-lit corner of the bookstore here.

    9. KS

      Like Apple and privacy or Apple and not big brother.

    10. SG

      Hundred percent.

    11. KS

      Same thing.

    12. SG

      We're the good guys.

    13. KS

      Mm-hmm.

    14. SG

      And so I th- I, I-- as we sit here today, I actually think that Anthropic, or in the next twelve months from this, one of our predictions, is gonna be worth more than OpenAI. But this is a win for Anthropic and another example of the government deciding they get to dictate... T- they're not bly- breaking the law. The government gets to dictate vis-à-vis laws that, okay, you can't discriminate based on someone's sexual orientation, race, ethnicity, gender, whatever. They can enforce that. There's no law saying that if you're a company that doesn't wanna engage in mass surveillance of citizens, that you're, you have to work with the government. That there-- This is, this is socialism gone awry. This is market-... intervention where there shouldn't be any, and when it comes from on Pentagon stationery, I mean, they might as well just have had Donald Trump sign this.

    15. KS

      Yeah.

    16. SG

      I think this is actually gonna be-

    17. KS

      It's a, it's a tech says, "Well, you do what I say." W-

    18. SG

      It's a Colbert moment. Uh, Dario Amodei is being like Colbert and sticking up the middle finger, and a lot of enterprises and a lot of consumers are gonna go, "You know, I like a company that refuses [chuckles] to engage in mass, mass surveillance-

    19. KS

      Mass surveillance on-

    20. SG

      ... of its own citizens."

    21. KS

      Yeah. Well, I think this is a good... Anyway, we'll see. Pete says, "You're also a moron." Anyway, um, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. [upbeat music]

    22. SG

      Support for today's show comes from Upwork. Scaling a business takes the right expertise at the right time. Upwork helps growing teams quickly bring in specialized freelancers, so you can move faster and take your business to the next level. Upwork is a one-stop platform to find, hire, and pay expert freelancers across web and software development, data and analytics, marketing, business operations, and more. They help grow your business by giving you fast access to specialized talent across 125-plus categories, so you can fill skill gaps, launch projects faster, and scale support up or down without committing to full-time headcount. You can browse profiles, review past work, and get help scoping the role so you can hire with confidence and get started quickly. With Business Plus, you can access the top 1% of talent on Upwork with an AI-powered shortlisting. You'll get matched to the right freelancer in under six hours, no endless searching required. You can visit upwork.com right now to post your job for free and connect with top talent ready to help your business grow. That's U-P-W-O-R-K dot com, upwork.com. [upbeat music] Support for today's show comes from SelectQuote. It's time to talk about life insurance. If you have a policy right now, do you know how much you're paying for it and for how much you're being covered? Odds are you pay too much for too little. And sure, it's not the easiest thing to think about, but it's simple to get right, thanks to SelectQuote. For over forty years, SelectQuote has been one of the most trusted brokers in insurance, helping more than two million Americans secure over seven hundred billion dollars in coverage. Their mission is simple: to find you the right insurance policy for your unique needs. They shop, you save. No medical exam? No problem. They partner with providers offering same-day coverage up to two million dollars without needing to visit your doctor. When you work with SelectQuote, a licensed insurance agent will call you right away with a policy for your life and your budget. Get the right life insurance for you for less, and save more than fifty percent at selectquote.com/pivot. Save more than fifty percent on term life insurance at selectquote.com/pivot today to get started. That's selectquote.com/pivot.

    23. KS

      [upbeat music] Okay,

  7. 51:351:05:25

    Predictions

    1. KS

      Scott, we're gonna talk about predictions, but first, um, I, I have a one prediction I'm gonna make, but I'm gonna want to do this first. The U.S. military is moving into place for a possible Iran strike, probably because this Epstein stuff is getting hot again for Trump, as early as this weekend. Scott, let's hear what you said in January.

    2. SG

      Bottom line is, my prediction is that I think we're about to see the U.S. conduct a military strike on Iran.

    3. KS

      Now, you thought it was pretty quickly, but the state, uh... But, but it's happening possibly this weekend. There's- th- they've, they've m- amassed an enormous amount of military might in the region, prob- I think more than when they were doing the last war they were over there. So it's, eh, the, the, the things are in place, the battleships are in place. You, you wanna talk about that, or do you have a different prediction?

    4. SG

      Oh, no, I, I think it's on, and, and let me be clear, I like this. I would like to see... I think the Islamic Republic is one of the most misogynistic, brutal regimes in the world right now, and I think Iran has the ca- the potential, uh, to be a, an outstanding ally, and I think if... And there's a lot of unknowns here. Regime change, you know, uh, brings its own risk. But I think-

    5. KS

      And why he's doing it at this moment, but go ahead.

    6. SG

      But he can be doing it for the wrong reasons and can still have a good outcome. I'm, I'm absolutely a hundred percent in favor of this, and I think that Iran, uh, being, quote-unquote, "just less oppressive, less brutal," will be really good for the region and really especially good for the women of Iran.

    7. KS

      If they can complete what they need to complete. If they just don't, and they just beat them up again and then leave, it's a different issue.

    8. SG

      Well, I, I think the reji- the regime is hobbled, and I think this could tip it over. I, a- and not to get into too much of the details, I think they need to coordinate with the Mossad and have agents on the ground and do a series of, of targeted executions, quite frankly, or assassinations. Uh, execution is the wrong word, assassinations. Uh, but, uh, I- I'm a, I'm a huge, I'm a huge proponent of this. If you look at troop movements, whether it's refueling planes, supply chain cargo, aircraft carriers, uh, specialized operations troops, i- they are either playing serious poker [chuckles] or they are about to do this imminently.

    9. KS

      They kinda have to, right? And Trump's probably in the mood. I think the, I think the other a- factor here is he, he has the State of the Union on Tuesday. I think he can't complete a [chuckles] State of the Union. I just-

    10. SG

      Well, uh, he, he also wanted-

    11. KS

      This sort of takes-

    12. SG

      He also wanted a distraction from the Epstein files.

    13. KS

      Epstein files.

    14. SG

      He loves, he loves the macho flex-

    15. KS

      Mm-hmm

    16. SG

      ... of what happened to Venezuela. This, he thinks, is gonna be part two, right?

    17. KS

      Which didn't last too long.

    18. SG

      And also, Rubio positions himself for president with these types of actions, and Rubio is probably whispering in his ear, "This would be a great move for us." Uh, I, I'd be very curious how our allies in the region, what they think of this, but I, I think it's on, and I have th- I have thought... If you just look, if you just track, um, uh, troop movements, ship movements, supply chain movements, I mean, we are moving a lot of stuff to the region, and we are sort of, we are ready to go. We are at the starting line right now.

    19. KS

      Yeah, he'll cancel the State of the Union, would be my guess, if this is happening. Anyway-

    20. SG

      That's interesting. I hadn't thought of that.

    21. KS

      Um, and I don't think he can complete one. I don't. I think he is q- quite losing it, as, you know, in some fashion. I'm not so sure he's, he's... I think, I, I know he seems vibrant, but I, I suspect that it's, there's problems around that.... Um, that's just me. Uh, one, uh, what-- the only prediction I would say is today, ah, Wired published a story about, uh, the gay mafia in Silicon Valley. They had written me about it, and I was like: "There's no such thing. [chuckles] Like, there just isn't. Sorry."

    22. SG

      The gay mafia?

    23. KS

      Uh, yeah, I know. It's the, it's a story that they wanted to work on, but they had contacted me years ago about it, and they're like: "Y- let's talk about you and the gay..." I'm like, "There is no-- I don't have friends with Kim Cook. There's no gay mafia." There's no-- I mean, sorry, but I thought it was a silly idea, and I still think it is, and I have to say, I think they're gonna get a lot of pushback for the illustration, which shows, uh, two hands coming out of two crotches, one with a, with a rainbow, uh, you know, Apple Watch on. Uh, com- but the penises are hands, and they're shaking. So I thought that was so fucking insulting to gay people. [chuckles] I'm sorry, guys. That was a terrible illustration. Like, I don't usually... I usually laugh at most, like, jokes about gays, but oh, my God, you don't have to have, you know, penis hands.

    24. SG

      Well, there's definitely no gay mafia, but it's obvious that Jews run the world.

    25. KS

      [laughing] Um, right.

    26. SG

      I mean-

    27. KS

      [chuckles] What the fuck? But why do you have penis hands? We don't need penis hands.

    28. SG

      Yeah, just speaking along those lines, George Han pointed out something that really struck me as very-

    29. KS

      Yeah

    30. SG

      ... insightful. He said-

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