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CEO of Microsoft AI:The Next 10 Years Will Change Humanity Forever

In this episode of Silicon Valley Girl, Marina Mogilko sits down with Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI and co-founder of DeepMind, to explore how AI is reshaping the future of work, education, and everyday life.

Marina MogilkohostMustafa Suleymanguest
Nov 14, 202541mWatch on YouTube

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Transcript

0:00 – 1:20

Teaser

Marina Mogilko 0:00 Are we in an AI bubble?

Mustafa Suleyman 0:03 Uh-

Marina Mogilko 0:03 This is Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind, one of the first companies to teach machines how to think. Today, he leads Microsoft AI, one of the Magnificent Seven shaping the future of our world.

Mustafa Suleyman 0:16 It's the smartest, most capable technology we've ever invented. It's improving faster than anything we've ever seen, and it's very important that we keep reminding ourselves of that. Like, in twenty-five years' time, a large portion of the population are gonna struggle to compete in the workplace with AI.

Marina Mogilko 0:32 But with that power comes a question none of us can ignore, because the same intelligence that builds our future could also rewrite what it means to be human.

Mustafa Suleyman 0:41 These things don't suffer. They don't feel pain. They're just simulating high-quality conversation, so we've got to be very careful about that.

Marina Mogilko 0:49 AI isn't just learning, it's starting to live with us.

Mustafa Suleyman 0:53 Your personal AI is just gonna have ambient awareness of what you're trying to do and talk to you in real time. It is gonna remember everything in the future and be perfect if you choose for it to do that.

Marina Mogilko 1:02 So if it remembers everything, what's gonna happen to our brains?

Mustafa Suleyman 1:05 Um-

Marina Mogilko 1:06 They don't sleep, they don't forget, they don't feel, but they're learning faster than we ever imagined. So the real question is, what happens to us next? This video is sponsored by HubSpot.

1:20 – 3:14

Are we in an AI bubble?

Marina Mogilko 1:20 Mustafa, welcome. Thank you so much for being here.

Mustafa Suleyman 1:22 Thanks for having me.

Marina Mogilko 1:24 The first question, everyone's talking about it on YouTube right now: Are we in an AI bubble?

Mustafa Suleyman 1:31 Uh, yes. So, no, we're not. [chuckles] I don't think so.

Marina Mogilko 1:36 You don't think so?

Mustafa Suleyman 1:37 I don't think so. I think, um, when you kind of think about it, we are creating something that is truly magical. Um, intelligence is the thing that has made us successful as a species. Um, and we're now distilling that into a smaller and smaller unit, um, that can be spread all over the world, and that is gonna be cheap and widely abundant. So that's just a remarkable thought. Like-

Marina Mogilko 2:07 Yeah, but we kind of had the same thought, you know, during dot-com crash, like, "We're inventing internet," blah, blah, blah. But there are some companies that, you know, their valuations are much higher than their revenues. And, like, everyone's talking about NVIDIA investing, and then that revenue going back to NVIDIA. What do you think about that?

Mustafa Suleyman 2:22 Yeah. No, I, I, I think the value that we're gonna produce in the next five to ten years is gonna be unprecedented.

Marina Mogilko 2:28 So you don't think we're gonna experience something like, you know, 2008, COVID?

Mustafa Suleyman 2:33 I mean, who knows? But-

Marina Mogilko 2:34 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 2:35 ... I, I think if you think, just focus on the fundamental value that's being created, this is the best prediction engine anyone's ever seen. It's the smartest, most capable technology we've ever invented. It's improving faster than anything we've ever seen. It has got more easy to shape and control, not less. Three years ago, we thought that it was gonna get more chaotic and more disorganized, that we weren't gonna be able to sculpt it, and now we're producing beautiful, powerful, amazing experiences that are surprising us every month. So yeah, no, I, I'm genuinely very bullish.

Marina Mogilko 3:07 Okay, so you're not worried. You're good-

Mustafa Suleyman 3:10 Yeah

Marina Mogilko 3:10 ... and we shouldn't be worried.

Mustafa Suleyman 3:11 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 3:11 Okay, that, that makes me feel better. Okay, let's talk

3:14 – 5:15

Is AI becoming conscious?

Marina Mogilko 3:14 about AI becoming more conscious. Uh, you talked about it in one of the podcasts that we, we perceive AI more and more as human.

Mustafa Suleyman 3:23 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 3:24 Uh, how fast is it happening? What's gonna happen in the next few years?

Mustafa Suleyman 3:28 It, it is getting more human-like. Um, it's getting more accurate, it's getting more fluid, more smooth, and that is unprecedented. At the same time, it's definitely not conscious. Um, it isn't aware of itself. It can't speak about itself. It... You know, it's very different to what it's like for a human to have a subjective experience and to feel pain and suffering, and it's very important that we keep reminding ourselves of that, because consciousness is the basis of our rights-based framework, and it is the thing that gives us responsibilities as citizens in societies, that allows us to vote, which allows us to be subject to the law, which creates order. Like, you know, we can't begin to attribute this quality to a new species. That would be terrible for our species [chuckles] uh-

Marina Mogilko 4:19 Yeah, but we still heard stories of Google... the story that you told in your book-

Mustafa Suleyman 4:22 Yeah

Marina Mogilko 4:22 ... of Google engineer who was convinced by AI that it was experiencing sadness, and it was afraid of being shut down.

Mustafa Suleyman 4:30 True, true. Yeah, and that was an anthropomorphic projection.

Marina Mogilko 4:33 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 4:33 People- You know, just because it has some human qualities, doesn't mean it has all of human qualities, including subjective experience. And I think we can prove that it doesn't have subjective experience, that it isn't going to emerge this kind of self-awareness. That's just a sci-fi fantasy. And I understand why people sometimes go there, because we've been schooled on sci-fi for as long as forever, and it's a natural assumption to make. But these things don't suffer.

Marina Mogilko 4:58 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 4:59 They don't feel pain. They're just simulating high-quality conversation, and that is magical, and it feels amazing, but that doesn't mean that it is something- it feels something internally to be one of these models. So we've got to be very careful about that.

5:15 – 7:00

Kids forming relationships with AI: how to prevent it

Marina Mogilko 5:15 Some people talk about our kids having real relationships with AIs in ten years-

Mustafa Suleyman 5:19 Yeah

Marina Mogilko 5:19 ... like getting married to AIs. Do you think it's something that could potentially happen? And if yes, how can we prevent that?

Mustafa Suleyman 5:26 I think the history of the human condition proves to us that if it's possible, someone will probably do it. You know, people do crazy things, but the majority of people don't. [chuckles] The majority of people are pretty sound of mind and pretty sensible and just wanna live healthy, happy lives. And so if some people choose to marry their AI in twenty years' time, I'm not gonna kind of sit here and necessarily judge that or say-

Marina Mogilko 5:50 [chuckles]

Mustafa Suleyman 5:50 ... "Don't do it," or, "Do do it." If you ask me my opinion, I don't think that these should be treated as entities that are of equal moral significance to humans. I think that they should be in service of humans. They should work for us.... That's why we invent technology. You know, I love the technology behind this microphone, 'cause it amplifies our voices and distributes them to millions of people on the internet. That is a technology that is in service of humanity that's doing good.

Marina Mogilko 6:19 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 6:19 That's what we want. And I don't necessarily think that, um, you know, these are- an idea of superintelligence that is autonomous, that can self-improve, that can set its own goals, that can act independently of humans, that, to me, doesn't feel like a positive vision of the future. Uh, it would be very hard to contain-

Marina Mogilko 6:40 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 6:40 ... something like that or align it to our values, and so that should be the anti-goal. That's not what we're trying to build.

Marina Mogilko 6:45 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 6:46 In my opinion, we're trying to build a humanist superintelligence, one that is aligned to our interests, on our team, in our corner, backing us up. That's the great project that we're engaged in at Microsoft with Copilot.

Marina Mogilko 6:59 But then again, a

7:00 – 7:33

Will we reach AGI by 2030?

Marina Mogilko 7:00 lot of people are talking about AGI. Is that similar to su- superintelligence, or how would you define both of those?

Mustafa Suleyman 7:04 Yeah, you can think of-

Marina Mogilko 7:05 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 7:05 ... AGI as a step before, maybe, superintelligence.

Marina Mogilko 7:08 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 7:08 But roughly speaking, they're fairly... Yeah, used fairly interchangeably.

Marina Mogilko 7:13 Because Demis, your ex-co-founder, mentioned-

Mustafa Suleyman 7:15 Yeah

Marina Mogilko 7:15 ... we could achieve it by 2030. Can you talk about what it means for society?

Mustafa Suleyman 7:20 Yeah, I mean, I, I think achieving human-level performance at most tasks, I wouldn't say all knowledge tasks, um, that feels quite likely in the next five years. I think it's a fairly grounded, uh, prediction.

7:33 – 8:05

What AI already does better than humans

Mustafa Suleyman 7:33 You know, if you think about it, these models already do many tasks better than a human. I mean, you know, summarization, translation, transcription, uh, research, document writing, maybe even arguably poetry or some parts of literature or whatever. So you can see that they're taking steps towards being as good as a human at being a project manager or being a marketing person or an HR person or having a tough conversation with somebody about a diagnosis for a medical condition they have. So it is gonna fundamentally

8:05 – 8:30

The future of work: humans and AI agents

Mustafa Suleyman 8:05 change work in the most profound way. It's gonna change the type of work that we do.

Marina Mogilko 8:11 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 8:11 You know, 10 years ago, it wasn't possible for you to do the job that you're now doing, but with streaming content, you don't need a big team around you. You don't need to be part of a big institution. So we've democratized access to the power of broadcast-

Marina Mogilko 8:25 Mm-hmm

Mustafa Suleyman 8:26 ... with the arrival of the internet and streaming and podcasting. That's amazing.

8:30 – 11:00

How AI is changing work — and creating unbelievable competition

Mustafa Suleyman 8:30 Now, with these models, we're democratizing access to intelligence. So you don't have to be a really privileged, wealthy, educated person that has access to capital to be able to found a company, to hire a great team. You're gonna have a team of intelligences around you that are the best lawyer, the best doctor, the best teacher, the best project manager, and that is gonna create unbelievable amounts of competition, because the distance between an idea and the realization of that idea is gonna collapse. That's an amazing thought.

Marina Mogilko 9:09 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 9:09 People are just gonna be thinking new companies into existence, new products, new pieces of poetry.

Marina Mogilko 9:15 But-

Mustafa Suleyman 9:16 That's amazing

Marina Mogilko 9:16 ... you said people. You said people, like, my-

Mustafa Suleyman 9:18 People, as in-

Marina Mogilko 9:18 ... my, my concern-

Mustafa Suleyman 9:19 You and me.

Marina Mogilko 9:20 Yeah, yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 9:20 Like, you're gonna have an agent around you that is gonna be able to execute on that idea.

Marina Mogilko 9:24 You know what my concern is-

Mustafa Suleyman 9:24 You're just gonna get it done

Marina Mogilko 9:25 ... with superintelligence? That AI is gonna come up with ideas. 'Cause, like, why would it need... Like, why do we need to come up with ideas if AI has all the information? If we're talking about a marketing business, for example, it can identify gaps in the market, come up with a website, launch the ads, do the business.

Mustafa Suleyman 9:42 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 9:42 Do you think that might happen?

Mustafa Suleyman 9:43 Oh, it will definitely happen. It'll definitely happen. You're gonna have a team of agents around you that can do more and more of the tasks, and arguably do them autonomously, but that comes back to what we were saying before about containment. Containment is the project of making sure that these AIs have limited scope and check in with you and are accountable to you and are working on your behalf. And so the creative challenge for technologists is to say, "What are the limitations? What are the guardrails? What can it not do? When does it have to seek your approval for an autonomous action?" And, you know, we've, we've done this many times in past moments of technology, right? We invented the combustion engine almost a century ago, and that, over time, became cars and trucks and so on and so forth. But the amount of regulation that we put around those vehicles to make them work for us in service of humanity, it's unbelievable, right? Seat belts and vehicle emissions and streetlights and freeways and speed limits and driver education. There's so many different components that go into that.

Marina Mogilko 10:51 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 10:51 And I think this is gonna be no different. We're gonna have to figure out what are all the regulations and guardrails that go into managing, you know, autonomous agents so that they always work

11:00 – 12:08

Get FREE: 100+ creative AI use cases for your work

Mustafa Suleyman 11:00 for us.

Marina Mogilko 11:00 [whooshing sound] Let me quickly pause here. If all of it sounds exciting but also a bit overwhelming, you're gonna love this. HubSpot for Startups just dropped a free database called 100+ Creative AI Use Cases Beyond Cold Outreach. It's a collection of real, unconventional ways companies across 30 industries, [whooshing sound] from real estate and healthcare to e-commerce and manufacturing, are using AI to solve problems in completely new ways. The truth is, the companies that will dominate in the next decade won't be using AI for the obvious stuff. They'll be the ones finding creative applications that give them a real edge, and your next breakthrough might actually be hiding in this list. You'll get implementation guidance, difficulty levels, and the exact tools you need to turn ideas into action. Use it to streamline operations, discover new revenue streams, or uncover advantages your competitors haven't even seen yet. You can access it for free and start building your competitive edge today. Link, as always, in the description. Big thanks to HubSpot for Startups for sponsoring this video.... [screen whooshes] Let's

12:08 – 13:50

Imagine superintelligence: what would a normal day look like?

Marina Mogilko 12:08 imagine superintelligence. What does my day [chuckles] look like then? If AI is capable of so many things, what is this thing that is very specific to humans and is gonna stay with humans?

Mustafa Suleyman 12:18 Yeah, I think that great technology helps you get bad technology out the way, and that's the test. Like, it is kind of annoying to use a graphical user interface today on your desktop. If you think about it, if you just take a step back, you go to your computer, and you've got all these windows with different colors, and different brands, and different menus, and information hierarchies, and different settings, and you have to learn each app for its own sake. And we don't think of it as advertising, but when you open your computer, you kindly have a bill- you kind of have a billboard of all these different-

Marina Mogilko 12:57 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 12:57 ... competing apps that are like, "Use me, try me, do..." It's kind of distracting, it's kind of ugly. I just want to be able to turn to my AI and be like, "I need this task done. Solve it for me, buy it for me, book it for me, create it. Check in with me at the right time, get my permission, you know, get my feedback, brainstorm with me," whatever it is. But you're gonna start to see the operating system, the browser, the search engine, the apps, all of these are gonna slip away-

Marina Mogilko 13:26 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 13:26 ... as your personal humanist superintelligence takes over a lot of the day-to-day work of browsing, searching, planning, booking, thinking, et cetera.

Marina Mogilko 13:36 So it's no longer gonna be a computer, you think?

Mustafa Suleyman 13:39 Yeah. I mean, [sighs] less and less. Um, I think we'll have different kinds of devices, like tablets, wearables. It'll be much more ambient in five to 10 years.

Marina Mogilko 13:49 [screen whooshes] Imagine

13:50 – 16:37

Imagine it’s 2040: how will your kitchen look? How AI will reshape everyday life

Marina Mogilko 13:50 it's 2040-

Mustafa Suleyman 13:51 Okay

Marina Mogilko 13:51 ... and we're in this kitchen. What things are obsolete, they don't exist anymore, and what do I have to make my life easier-

Mustafa Suleyman 13:59 Okay

Marina Mogilko 14:00 ... with AI?

Mustafa Suleyman 14:00 So I think there will probably be some kind of household robotic arm. Probably... I don't know if it'll be a humanoid walking around, but certainly you would have a, a mounted system on your, on your, uh, on your counter.

Marina Mogilko 14:13 Here, cooking? [chuckles]

Mustafa Suleyman 14:14 I think it... Yeah. It will learn to use all the different appliances, so probably you would l- have many of the similar appliances that you've got today, but the AI is just gonna learn to use them in the way that you would use them. I think some people imagine that the entire thing is gonna look totally different to suit the AI, but actually, it's not. Like, the robot is just gonna learn to do the things that you do in the way-

Marina Mogilko 14:33 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 14:33 ... that you do it. So you're still gonna want to use a kettle. I mean, that kettle is, you know, hundreds of years old. We've been, you know-

Marina Mogilko 14:39 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 14:39 ... making cups and handles like that in the same way. So I think that stuff will remain the same.

Marina Mogilko 14:43 So the hand or, or a humanoid, what are you leaning towards?

Mustafa Suleyman 14:47 I think the, the, the hum- I mean, 15 years is a pretty long way out, so it probably will be humanoid. But I think the challenge with humanoid is, like, the physical- the risk of it being physically in your space. I think it's got to be very, very accurate, and very reliable, and handling hot things around children and-

Marina Mogilko 15:06 Mm-hmm

Mustafa Suleyman 15:06 ... the elderly, and you can-

Marina Mogilko 15:07 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 15:07 ... imagine all kinds of complications. So I think it would be technically feasible. It would just be a, a bit of an adjustment to-

Marina Mogilko 15:13 Okay

Mustafa Suleyman 15:13 ... people get comfortable with it.

Marina Mogilko 15:15 What about devices? Do you think I'm gonna have, like, I don't know, an AI projector, uh, and, like, tap on the air [chuckles] as it... and, and get instructions on how to cook things, or is it gonna be glasses?

Mustafa Suleyman 15:27 I think that you're gonna just have it in your ear. So I think that-

Marina Mogilko 15:30 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 15:30 ... you know, your AI is- like, your personal AI is just gonna have ambient awareness of what you're trying to do and talk to you in real time. So-

Marina Mogilko 15:40 So it will have a camera-

Mustafa Suleyman 15:41 Mm-hmm

Marina Mogilko 15:42 ... in my ear?

Mustafa Suleyman 15:42 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 15:43 And it will... Oh.

Mustafa Suleyman 15:44 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 15:44 Interesting.

Mustafa Suleyman 15:45 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 15:45 I don't think anyone's working on that.

Mustafa Suleyman 15:47 Yeah. I mean, it's very hard to miniaturize-

Marina Mogilko 15:49 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 15:49 ... that today.

Marina Mogilko 15:49 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 15:49 So it's still a bit of a way off, but by 2040, definitely. And you'll have other wearables on you. I mean, look at how cool this mic is at the moment.

Marina Mogilko 15:56 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 15:56 It's tiny, super light.

Marina Mogilko 15:58 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 15:58 Um, so in time, that'll have a camera on it as well and have ambient awareness.

Marina Mogilko 16:02 Okay, so robotic arm, wearables. Anything else?

Mustafa Suleyman 16:05 And then I think those... That ambient awareness is gonna mean that the entire kitchen is just way more proactive. Proactively ordering the food-

Marina Mogilko 16:14 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 16:14 ... and just checking in with you, like, "Oh, I know that you've got a lot of guests coming this weekend. Shall I order all the stuff for the barbecue?"

Marina Mogilko 16:20 Mm. Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 16:20 All of that stuff will just happen seamlessly in the background. And the-

Marina Mogilko 16:23 And the car will go and pick it, pick stuff up?

Mustafa Suleyman 16:25 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 16:25 Oh, and, uh... [chuckles]

Mustafa Suleyman 16:26 We'll definitely have self-driving cars-

Marina Mogilko 16:28 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 16:28 ... by 2040 that basically do most of that. Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 16:30 Please.

Mustafa Suleyman 16:31 Or maybe there'll be little bikes or different form factors, 'cause, you know, it won't necessarily need to look like a traditional

16:37 – 17:18

Markets and investors: what to focus on to stay ahead

Mustafa Suleyman 16:37 car.

Marina Mogilko 16:37 [screen whooshes] Are there any markets where you think people should be paid- paying attention to if they want to stay ahead in this AI race? What are the most exciting markets?

Mustafa Suleyman 16:47 I think by far the most exciting new market is medicine.

Marina Mogilko 16:50 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 16:51 Um, I think at the moment, the quality difference between the top 10% and the bottom 10%, even in the United States, let alone rest of the world, is, is unbelievable. The gulf is, like, um, probably an order of magnitude. It's huge.

Marina Mogilko 17:03 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 17:04 Um, and again, that's gonna completely collapse because everybody is gonna have access to medical superintelligence, and it'll cost 20 bucks a month. Like, it is gonna be remarkably cheap. Um-

Marina Mogilko 17:17 And talk to me

17:18 – 19:05

Copilot and education: why 40% of student queries are health-related

Marina Mogilko 17:18 what- about what you just released. Harvard-backed-

Mustafa Suleyman 17:21 Yeah

Marina Mogilko 17:21 ... research, right? Within Copilot, if I ask a medical question, how is it gonna work?

Mustafa Suleyman 17:26 Exactly. So now, I mean, we find that, like, about 40% of our queries each week are health-related.

Marina Mogilko 17:31 40%?

Mustafa Suleyman 17:32 Yeah, four zeros. Pretty remarkable.

Marina Mogilko 17:34 Wow.

Mustafa Suleyman 17:34 Like, millions of people a day-

Marina Mogilko 17:36 Wow

Mustafa Suleyman 17:36 ... are asking health-related queries. So we decided to really focus on improving the quality of the health answers. And part of doing that is that we ground the answers in citations from-

Marina Mogilko 17:47 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 17:47 ... Harvard Medical, which is an amazing kind of gift to the world, like, the most respected health institution.

Marina Mogilko 17:53 100%.

Mustafa Suleyman 17:53 Um, and we also do the NHS in the UK, and we'll be doing other health systems over time. And so people now get really high-quality, very reliable, you know, pretty accurate... Like, sometimes it makes mistakes. It's not- you can't rely on it yet. You always have to go see a doctor, et cetera. But if you think about it, most of the time-... in a healthcare situation, people are trying to make sense of a complicated technical set of language that they don't really understand. They're probably anxious or worried, so they want to repeat things lots of times, they want to get it explained in a very simple way, and sometimes they want help actually making a decision about who to go see. So we also now have recommendations for physicians.

Marina Mogilko 18:33 Oh.

Mustafa Suleyman 18:33 You could go see a doctor, you could see a dermatologist, you could see a physio, and we will find someone that fits your, uh, preferences. Like, you know, maybe-

Marina Mogilko 18:43 Interesting

Mustafa Suleyman 18:43 ... you know, you want to see a woman physio who specializes in sports massage 'cause you're a cyclist, and you want them to be local to your area, and so we can make that recommendation. Copilot does that directly inside of the app in chat.

Marina Mogilko 18:56 That is awesome.

Mustafa Suleyman 18:57 Um, yeah, it's, it's so cool to see that taking off.

Marina Mogilko 19:00 I love that. I need to ask about my cholesterol levels. [laughing]

Mustafa Suleyman 19:03 [laughing]

Marina Mogilko 19:03 We're gonna do this today.

19:05 – 20:56

What will happen to traditional education? How AI will change learning

Marina Mogilko 19:05 Like you mentioned, that access to knowledge is now democratized. What's gonna happen to traditional education? Will we see the standard, like bachelor's, master's, where we basically spend five or six years just acquiring knowledge?

Mustafa Suleyman 19:17 Yeah, I don't think so. I think that knowledge acquisition is gonna be a conversation between you and, you know, Copilot. So, for example, another feature that we just launched today, in fact, is this Learn Live feature. So you actually have a tutor shows up on the screen, and it will lay out a quiz for you on any topic that you like. So it d- doesn't have to be a school curriculum topic. You might be learning about cacti or, you know, Persian rugs. It will give you an education on it, lay out the kind of curriculum piece by piece, give you a nice quiz, present it in a nice graphical us- user interface. And so, knowledge acquisition is about to get completely decentralized and available to everybody, and you just have an expert teacher in your pocket on any subject.

Marina Mogilko 20:04 Does this mean all education businesses are dead? I'm thinking about- [laughing]

Mustafa Suleyman 20:07 I think that-

Marina Mogilko 20:08 ... my apps. [laughing]

Mustafa Suleyman 20:09 I think it's the opposite. I think education businesses that adopt these kinds of AI tools and integrate them as quickly as possible, that they're really gonna flourish. It's happening like that for everything. I mean, now in Copilot, you can also generate a podcast literally in a minute. It's a great introductory thing. Like the other day, I generate- I don't really follow football or, like, soccer, um, but I do support Arsenal because I'm from London. And, uh, when I go back to London to see my friends, I wanna like, you know, know what I'm talking about a little bit. So I ask Copilot to generate me a podcast on how Arsenal is doing in the season, and what the latest is with the transfers, and who are the best players, and stuff like that. So just, like, fun, s- you know, simple bits of information are perfect.

Marina Mogilko 20:52 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 20:52 And now I'm in the gym listening to a little five, seven-minute podcast about

20:56 – 23:00

Should you still be saving for your kid’s college?

Mustafa Suleyman 20:56 that.

Marina Mogilko 20:56 Going back to knowledge and education, should I be saving for my kids' college or not? They're five and four. [laughing]

Mustafa Suleyman 21:03 Um, so in t- so 15 years' time?

Marina Mogilko 21:05 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 21:06 Um, probably not. [laughing]

Marina Mogilko 21:11 [laughing]

Mustafa Suleyman 21:11 There you go. [laughing] I don't know. It's really hard to judge. I'm not sure that we will value a Stanford education, um, that costs... I don't know, what does it cost? Fifty grand a year or something.

Marina Mogilko 21:25 I think more.

Mustafa Suleyman 21:25 Is it more? Something crazy.

Marina Mogilko 21:27 Fifty is a private school here.

Mustafa Suleyman 21:30 Right. I mean, I just... [exhaling] I don't- I think that we're gonna have world-class expertise on tap that costs twenty bucks a month.

Marina Mogilko 21:38 But what if, like, for example, right now I'm educated, and like I studied maths, economics, so I can have these conversations. If I completely abandon acquisition of knowledge, how can I have an argument? It's not like I'm always talking to my phone, right?

Mustafa Suleyman 21:52 [laughing] Well, you could w- you could still argue about stuff. If anything, it'll probably make us all more argumentative 'cause we'll be even more knowledgeable. We wanna be exchanging ideas with people, right?

Marina Mogilko 22:01 Yeah, I mean, but since you base your arguments on things that you've acqui- acquired when learning something.

Mustafa Suleyman 22:06 Yeah, but you, you... That- that's kind of my point, is that the knowledge acquisition in the traditional form-

Marina Mogilko 22:10 Mm-hmm

Mustafa Suleyman 22:11 ... in the classroom, you know, with the textbook, that's gonna shift entirely. So the classroom is gonna look more like practicing using your knowledge.

Marina Mogilko 22:20 Mm. So yeah, I'd acquire more knowledge if I do it the other way around with AI?

Mustafa Suleyman 22:24 Exactly.

Marina Mogilko 22:25 Okay.

Mustafa Suleyman 22:25 'Cause then as a kid, you're gonna be able to talk to your AI tutor at any time during the day. You're gonna learn from the AI podcast, you're gonna learn from the AI video that is gonna be generated. So all the kind of straightforward teaching is gonna take place, you know, with the student and the AI, and then when you come into the classroom for your day, the students are gonna be talking to each other about the knowledge that they've acquired from their AI, and debating and learning to, you know, be more empathetic, and be better listeners, and adjust their tone and, you know, that kind of thing.

23:00 – 23:49

What skills should we actually learn today?

Marina Mogilko 23:00 So, what do you think-

Mustafa Suleyman 23:01 Yeah

Marina Mogilko 23:01 ... uh, parents should be teaching their kids now?

Mustafa Suleyman 23:03 I think it's still important to be good at, like, learning knowledge from first principles yourself, and not depending on the sort of AI tutor leading you through. Like, I think one of the most important things is, from school, is the discipline of being able to teach yourself.

Marina Mogilko 23:20 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 23:20 That's a meta skill, and that, you know, that, that comes with friction. So I think as a parent, you still have to introduce, like, discipline and friction into the process. Because if it comes all too slowly and it's always on tap, you know, then the, then there's a risk that the child could just get used to having everything instantly available-

Marina Mogilko 23:40 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 23:41 ... and doesn't learn from the hard work, um, you know, the benefits of hard work, which I think are important. So that's, like, something to think through now that everything is gonna be so

23:49 – 25:14

Do you need to be technical to build a career in tech? Mustafa’s story

Mustafa Suleyman 23:49 seamless.

Marina Mogilko 23:49 Another question I wanted to ask you, uh, for everyone who thinks that they need to be technical in the age of AI-

Mustafa Suleyman 23:56 Mm

Marina Mogilko 23:56 ... you have philosophical background, and you're head of AI at Microsoft.

Mustafa Suleyman 24:00 Yeah, I mean, I, I think that it's easier than ever to understand what's being built. Like, everything is available on YouTube. You know, there are so many courses, the curriculums for all of the major CS classes, machine learning classes.... are available for undergraduate, uh, master's level even.

Marina Mogilko 24:18 Is that how you learn?

Mustafa Suleyman 24:19 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 24:20 Yeah?

Mustafa Suleyman 24:20 Like, I've watched- I watched Andrew Ng's course back in the day-

Marina Mogilko 24:23 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 24:24 -uh, which I encourage everyone to look at. And there's just so many classes. I, I watched maybe 10 years ago, I think, when he was at Coursera when it first came out.

Marina Mogilko 24:31 Wow.

Mustafa Suleyman 24:32 And I've just watched so many of those, so it's very accessible.

Marina Mogilko 24:34 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 24:34 And I think if you just have a logical mind, you're patient, you're disciplined with your own learning, it is actually very, very easy.

Marina Mogilko 24:40 That's great. So anyone- well, basically anyone who learns can become head of AI, build an AI company without learning how to code, and-

Mustafa Suleyman 24:46 Yeah, 'cause the skills now are... I mean, it's still good to be able to learn how to code, but the primary skill is in synthesis. Like, the goal is to bring together all the different disciplines of UX, and research, and product-

Marina Mogilko 24:58 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 24:59 ... and the aesthetic, and also large-scale distributed systems for training big models, doing the hardware. Like, you know, so I think that people who are multidisciplinary and can straddle loads of different technical disciplines are gonna get rewarded most.

Marina Mogilko 25:12 Yeah. Well, this is

25:14 – 26:30

The “memory” feature: when AI remembers everything

Marina Mogilko 25:14 so inspiring. You've released the memory feature, right? So, uh, AI is gonna remember everything about us. I don't know how it's go- I haven't tried the Copilot yet, but, uh, with other AIs, I see how it forgets. Like, I just tell it, and then I ask the question, and for some reason it forgets, and I have to remind it.

Mustafa Suleyman 25:31 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 25:31 Is it gonna be a problem? Have you, have you tried it?

Mustafa Suleyman 25:33 It doesn't have infinite, perfect memory-

Marina Mogilko 25:35 Mm-hmm

Mustafa Suleyman 25:35 ... but it does remember specific durable facts. So it will remember that you have a preference for, I don't know, pineapple on pizza, and that you like going running on a Sunday morning or whatever.

Marina Mogilko 25:47 Or, like, measure- my measurements. That's the thing that-

Mustafa Suleyman 25:49 Definitely

Marina Mogilko 25:49 ... my AIs keep forgetting.

Mustafa Suleyman 25:50 Oh, really?

Marina Mogilko 25:50 Like, "Can you choose the size from this website?" "Oh, I don't have your measurements." I'm like: "No, yes, you do."

Mustafa Suleyman 25:54 Oh, interesting.

Marina Mogilko 25:55 And it'll be like, "Oh, exactly, I do have them." I experience this forgetting problem almost everywhere-

Mustafa Suleyman 26:01 Yeah

Marina Mogilko 26:01 ... with AI.

Mustafa Suleyman 26:02 I mean, we're working on a good knowledge representation as well, so you can go and edit the AI's memory of what it knows-

Marina Mogilko 26:07 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 26:07 ... about you. And if you ask Copilot today, "What do you know about me?" It will produce a pretty long list.

Marina Mogilko 26:12 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 26:12 It's not entirely definitive, so it won't be absolutely everything that you've ever told it. It is selective, and it chooses what to remember. And you can tell it to remember certain things, like, "Please remember my-

Marina Mogilko 26:22 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 26:22 ... size," and so on.

Marina Mogilko 26:23 Yeah, edit my memory. Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 26:24 Yeah. But it, it is gonna remember everything in the future and be perfect if you choose for it to do that. And of course, you can delete it, and control it, and

26:30 – 28:35

If AI remembers everything, what happens to our brains?

Mustafa Suleyman 26:30 edit it as you wish.

Marina Mogilko 26:31 So if it remembers everything, what's gonna happen to our brains?

Mustafa Suleyman 26:34 Um, I think people said that about calculators, right?

Marina Mogilko 26:37 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 26:37 Like, you know, people aren't gonna have to memorize their times tables anymore. They're just gonna use the calculator. Um-

Marina Mogilko 26:42 But you know what? When I was preparing for GMAT, the test that you have to take for an MBA, they don't allow you to use calculators, and there are a lot of numbers. I remember then, that two weeks after the exam, my brain was so fast-

Mustafa Suleyman 26:54 Mm

Marina Mogilko 26:54 ... because I trained it to calculate, and then it gradually slowed down-

Mustafa Suleyman 26:58 Mm

Marina Mogilko 26:58 ... and I lost this again. [chuckles]

Mustafa Suleyman 26:59 Do you think that that transferred into other areas of your knowledge because you're good at memoring- memorizing the numbers?

Marina Mogilko 27:05 No, I think it was just related to numbers.

Mustafa Suleyman 27:07 It's sort of the risk, isn't it? It's like, you know, I used to be able to memorize a lot of telephone numbers as a kid, 'cause I, 'cause I-

Marina Mogilko 27:13 'Cause you had to. [laughs]

Mustafa Suleyman 27:14 Yeah, I didn't get a cellphone till I was, like, 15. I think I was one of the first people to get cell phones in my year at school. And before that, everyone just remembered telephone numbers. Uh, and now I can barely remember my own phone number from [chuckles] you know, my own house.

Marina Mogilko 27:27 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 27:28 Um-

Marina Mogilko 27:28 Do you think it affects our brains, or they just develop in a different way?

Mustafa Suleyman 27:32 I don't think so, because my brain is now stimulated in a lot of other directions.

Marina Mogilko 27:36 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 27:36 Um, you know, it's a muscle that you don't exercise, but in turn, you focus on other aspects of your brain. And so I think that we're way better at synthesizing vast amounts of novel information compared to like, you know, people in the '50s or our ancestors 200 years ago. I mean, we're completely bombarded with stimulus, right?

Marina Mogilko 27:57 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 27:58 And so I think that's interesting. It's had an interesting effect. In some respects, it's made us a bit more polarized. In other respects, it's made us much more empathetic. Like, we don't fear, you know, people of color, or people of different sexualities, or women. And a, and a lot of that has got to do with just being aware-

Marina Mogilko 28:16 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 28:16 ... of others, and spending time with them, and watching them on social media, and behave in different ways, and, and that has driven a lot more empathy, actually. People often focus on how it's driven a lot more disagreement, and it has, but it's also driven so much more understanding, um, and, you know, respect, and forgiveness,

28:35 – 29:17

Are we getting dumber with AI?

Mustafa Suleyman 28:35 and those kinds of things.

Marina Mogilko 28:36 So d- in general, do you think we're getting dumber with AI or not?

Mustafa Suleyman 28:40 No, I don't think we're getting dumber. I, I think that it's r- it reduces the barrier to accessing information, and it actually makes us a lot smarter. You can ask any question now, and many people are. So questions that were previously going unasked because the cost of going to a library, and pulling a book off the shelf, and talking to the librarian was too hard. It took, like, four hours to get an answer to some question. Like, now you can go to the web, and then after the web, you can answer a- ask a perfect question in a conversational way to a chatbot. So I think that's driving more collective intelligence and more, um, awareness and understanding of our world.

Marina Mogilko 29:16 Can

29:17 – 30:39

Killer AI features people underuse — that actually save time

Marina Mogilko 29:17 you talk to me about some killer features that you think people are underutilizing right now with AI? Like, you implement something, and then you save, like, an hour a day. So for me, it was asking AI to add things to my calendar, reply to my emails, search through my emails. Uh, that has saved me a lot of time.

Mustafa Suleyman 29:36 Yeah, I mean, [exhales] I think one of the super exciting features is this thing we're calling connectors, so Copilot connectors, and you can just say to Copilot, "Hook up my Gmail, hook up my calendar." You can do it in Teams. You can do it with your Dropbox. You can do it from any, basically, source of data that you have about yourself, and then ask Copilot any question about it.

Marina Mogilko 29:58 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 29:58 So scheduling, booking, searching for content, and it will actually integrate that knowledge into its answers as well.... so if you say, "Oh, I'm planning to go here at the weekend," it'll be like, "Oh, but you've already made this appointment here,"-

Marina Mogilko 30:11 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 30:12 -or, uh, you know.

Marina Mogilko 30:12 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 30:12 So it would- that it will seamlessly have that contextual awareness about you. It's a really cool feature.

Marina Mogilko 30:17 So even if I ask it, ask it to schedule something, it's gonna tell me, like, "Oh, you have a conflict"?

Mustafa Suleyman 30:22 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 30:22 Oh, nice.

Mustafa Suleyman 30:23 Or, or, or it's-

Marina Mogilko 30:23 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 30:23 ... gonna just be like, "You know, you're interested... I, I, I, you know, I was reading from you, like, you know, where you went on vacation last year when you did your travel planning, that you really enjoyed, you know, Greece or something like that."

Marina Mogilko 30:35 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 30:35 "And so you might wanna try, you know, whatever."

Marina Mogilko 30:38 What is your

30:39 – 31:25

Mustafa’s favorite use case of AI

Marina Mogilko 30:39 personal favorite use case?

Mustafa Suleyman 30:41 I use voice three or four times a day, and I use it at the end of the day as well for kind of journaling and talking. So I have it set up on my, uh, iPhone in the power button. So I literally just press the power button, straight away goes into voice mode, and then I kind of talk to Copilot on the way home when I'm driving home. Um-

Marina Mogilko 31:00 Oh, so you talk about your day, or-

Mustafa Suleyman 31:01 Yeah, talk about my day.

Marina Mogilko 31:02 Like journaling?

Mustafa Suleyman 31:03 Yeah, it's totally journaling.

Marina Mogilko 31:04 But with AI.

Mustafa Suleyman 31:04 And then it r- then it will remind me what I've said in previous days, and it-

Marina Mogilko 31:08 Wow

Mustafa Suleyman 31:08 ... will help me think through a tricky problem I have, and it kind of maintains state for me.

Marina Mogilko 31:13 Wow!

Mustafa Suleyman 31:13 It's like a second memory.

Marina Mogilko 31:15 Wow. I love this.

Mustafa Suleyman 31:17 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 31:17 It's like second memory journaling that has all the information, and then, yeah, helps you with your decisions.

Mustafa Suleyman 31:23 Yeah, it does.

Marina Mogilko 31:24 That's-

Mustafa Suleyman 31:24 Yeah, it's very cool

Marina Mogilko 31:24 ... fascinating.

31:25 – 32:00

Should we be worried AI knows so much about us?

Marina Mogilko 31:25 Do you have a worry it knows too much about us?

Mustafa Suleyman 31:28 Um, [laughs]

Marina Mogilko 31:29 [laughs]

Mustafa Suleyman 31:30 No, I th- I think that as long as it's useful and it's got a purpose, I don't mind.

Marina Mogilko 31:37 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 31:37 And I think that's also the story of technology so far, right?

Marina Mogilko 31:40 Yeah. Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 31:40 Everybody uses the camera and uses location and-

Marina Mogilko 31:44 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 31:44 ... knows their search history-

Marina Mogilko 31:45 That's true

Mustafa Suleyman 31:45 ... is helping personalize search, so.

Marina Mogilko 31:47 Like you said, we have to be careful about it. Uh, Elon Musk is very vocal about, uh, containing AI. Uh, I think Geoffrey Hinton said that we'll have to be plumbers if we don't learn

32:00 – 34:22

Work automated by AI: why it’s not an AI problem but a human one

Marina Mogilko 32:00 how to work with AI, I think he said.

Mustafa Suleyman 32:01 A plumber, [laughs] did he?

Marina Mogilko 32:02 Yeah, because, like, we're still not there with the robotics to do certain tasks, especially like when every house is custom, right? So it's not a standardized task. But with intelligence, it's like we're getting to a point where, you know, people either learn to do something with hands or become entrepreneurs and use AI to bring their ideas to life, or then you're out.

Mustafa Suleyman 32:23 No, but I think it's making all of us way more creative because people have access to tools in a way they never had before, right? Not, not just access to information, but access to experimentation. So you can take an idea, generate the product for it in an image. You can generate the technical specification. You can get the documentation for your marketing campaign. So you can simulate all of these things ahead of time before you've even built and deployed something.

Marina Mogilko 32:48 What if you're not entrepreneurial enough? I'm just thinking about people who are like, "I just want to do, like, standard thing every single day-

Mustafa Suleyman 32:54 Yeah, yeah.

Marina Mogilko 32:55 - and just feel good about it."

Mustafa Suleyman 32:57 Right, right. But is that an AI problem, or is [laughs] is that a-

Marina Mogilko 33:00 I think it's an AI, because those, like-

Mustafa Suleyman 33:02 ... a human problem? [laughs]

Marina Mogilko 33:02 ... because stan- like those standardized tasks, something that's super repeatable is being replaced.

Mustafa Suleyman 33:08 Yeah, but I- it depends on your default assumption about the human condition. I don't believe that the majority of people do want to work on a toothpaste packing line, just screwing in the top of a toothpaste tube.

Marina Mogilko 33:23 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 33:23 I think that people want creative work. I think people wanna pursue their passions. They wanna, you know, be led by their own interests and curiosity, and, um, we shouldn't valorize or, you know, sort of idolize, like, routine work. Most people... I think many people do jobs that they would love to get rid of and pursue their passion, and I think AI lowers the barrier to entry to you pursuing your passion. Um, now, quite often, you might be in a partnership with your husband or your wife or your best friend, and they might not be as interested in collecting stamps or, you know, sort of like keeping snails-

Marina Mogilko 34:03 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 34:03 ... or, [laughs] you know, great shoes-

Marina Mogilko 34:06 [laughs]

Mustafa Suleyman 34:06 - as you are, right?

Marina Mogilko 34:07 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 34:07 And then that's unfortunate. Like, now, you know, you have an AI that knows everything that you could possibly think of, um, you know, about your stamp passion.

Marina Mogilko 34:18 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 34:19 Uh, and I think that's cool.

Marina Mogilko 34:20 What about adjusting to the

34:22 – 35:38

How to adapt to the speed of AI progress — and could something like this happen again?

Marina Mogilko 34:22 speed at which AI is developing? During the Industrial Revolution, workers destroyed machines that replaced them. Could something like that happen again?

Mustafa Suleyman 34:32 That's natural. It's healthy to express fear and frustration, um, publicly, and be open and vocal about it. We shouldn't shame it. People are afraid-

Marina Mogilko 34:43 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 34:43 ... and it's very understandable. Um, but the history of science and technology tells us that net-net, these tend to be, or at least so far, they have been incredibly positive transitions we've made. Like automation has lifted billions of people out of poverty. You know, our average life expectancy over the last two hundred and fifty years has gone from about thirty to about seventy-five, right? That's unbelievable, like, that people are living three times longer, pretty much, and that's to- as a result of all of these discoveries and all this science and so on. So I think so far so good, and I, I do think that the trend is headed in the right direction. It doesn't mean that there won't be consequences and side effects, and, like, you have to be very open-minded to that and very, like, conscious of it. It is gonna happen.

Marina Mogilko 35:35 Do you think in our case, we'll

35:38 – 37:11

In 25 years: massive structural unemployment?

Marina Mogilko 35:38 have UBI to-

Mustafa Suleyman 35:39 I hope so

Marina Mogilko 35:40 ... work the problem? 'Cause we've never had it before, and you think this is the time.

Mustafa Suleyman 35:43 I think we do have it. I mean, we- that's what our taxation-

Marina Mogilko 35:46 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 35:46 ... system does. It decides who to, you know-

Marina Mogilko 35:50 Mm-hmm

Mustafa Suleyman 35:50 ... redistribute from-

Marina Mogilko 35:51 Mm-hmm

Mustafa Suleyman 35:51 ... and who to redistribute to, and it incentivizes certain types of behavior.

Marina Mogilko 35:56 Mm, I like how you think about it.

Mustafa Suleyman 35:57 Um, and so we do, we do have a large-scale redistribution mechanism today.

Marina Mogilko 36:02 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 36:02 Um, wealthier people do pay more taxes than people who don't, and-... pretty much-

Marina Mogilko 36:07 In the US. [laughing]

Mustafa Suleyman 36:08 Sort of. It's pretty roughly true. It's true. Certainly income tax, um, not so much on capital gains tax, it's true.

Marina Mogilko 36:15 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 36:16 And so we've done redistribution before, and we'll have to do redistribution again. Um, I mean, the, the, the truth is, these are labor-replacing technologies, and you can debate the timelines, but I think you can certainly say by 2050, like in twenty-five years' time, I think there's gonna be significant structural unemployment. I think that a large portion of the population are gonna struggle to compete in the, in the workplace with, with AI. So we're gonna have to decide, um, whether to shorten the working week or whether to, um, you know, increase taxes on some portion of capital, um, or indeed, like, some portion of high-earning incomes-

Marina Mogilko 37:01 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 37:01 ... and how to redistribute that, because that's what civilization is about. It's about bringing everybody with us and not just, uh, you know, a few.

Marina Mogilko 37:10 One hundred percent.

37:11 – 38:00

Who will lead the future — governments or Big Tech?

Marina Mogilko 37:11 And do you think the governments will be working on that or large companies who have-

Mustafa Suleyman 37:15 I think the governments have to lead it.

Marina Mogilko 37:17 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 37:17 I mean, it, it needs to be democratically accountable, and, uh, there's no question that it needs to be led by governments. But, but companies are gonna- are gonna be the ones footing the bill.

Marina Mogilko 37:27 Mm.

Mustafa Suleyman 37:27 They, you know, companies are gonna be the ones that are driving this massive transition. I mean, Bill Gates said many years ago now, like six or seven years ago, that we need a robot tax. The only way to do it is to tax-

Marina Mogilko 37:37 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 37:37 ... the robots, right?

Marina Mogilko 37:38 Mm-hmm.

Mustafa Suleyman 37:38 Um, and tax-- essentially, what that means is tax capital. Um, because intelligence, which was previously the domain of labor, like people, is now getting converted into capital. It's gonna be turned into a commodity that can be sold and resold-

Marina Mogilko 37:53 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 37:53 ... infinitely, and so that's where the value transition is gonna happen, and so taxation has to follow that value transition.

Marina Mogilko 37:59 He called

38:00 – 40:35

“The Coming Wave”: what’s changed since the book and why Mustafa didn’t expect this speed

Marina Mogilko 38:00 your book his favorite book on AI. So you wrote your book a few years ago. Uh, is there something that has changed completely that you couldn't predict when you were writing this book?

Mustafa Suleyman 38:10 Changed completely?

Marina Mogilko 38:12 There was an update about 2024, when you said, "The wave is here," the wave of AI.

Mustafa Suleyman 38:16 Yeah.

Marina Mogilko 38:17 Uh, what is the 2025 update to your book?

Mustafa Suleyman 38:20 Yeah, good question. So in the book, I sort of laid out this framework of capabilities. There was IQ, the intelligence quotient, which is kind of like the factuality and the knowledge, citations, and stuff, and that was about hallucinations, and I predicted that they were gonna be largely eliminated, and I think pretty much we're on track. Pretty much they are. Uh, there was the emotional intelligence, which is the tone and style of the personalities of these things, and then there was the AQ. So IQ, EQ, AQ. AQ is the actions quotient, like the extent to which it can get things done-

Marina Mogilko 38:54 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 38:54 ... book your calendar, appointments, and stuff like that. The bit that I missed, um, is SQ, the social intelligence, and like today, actually, we're launching this new feature, Copilot Groups, and it's the first time that you can chat, uh, with up to thirty-two other people and Copilot all in one group. So if you're-

Marina Mogilko 39:19 Ah

Mustafa Suleyman 39:19 ... organizing a trip, or you're, uh, helping your-

Marina Mogilko 39:23 Like working with your team, no?

Mustafa Suleyman 39:24 You're working with your team-

Marina Mogilko 39:26 Yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 39:26 ... or you're, you know, trying to, like, plan a care pathway for your parent or sibling or something like that, you can have the family or your friends or your colleagues in a single group chat, all seeing the same context-

Marina Mogilko 39:38 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 39:38 ... all asking their own questions. And the cool thing about the social intelligence of Copilot is that it can change its tone and style and responses to each individual person in the group, knowing that, like, your mum might want a different type of explanation to your younger brother or something. Um, and it also remembers the, the types of jokes that people like or the history that you have talked about. So if you say that you're really into, uh, you know, tennis or something, then it's gonna remember to talk to you about, uh, you know, Wimbledon or whatever it is, right? And that's social intelligence. That's what we do as humans.

Marina Mogilko 40:13 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 40:13 We can manage the room.

Marina Mogilko 40:14 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 40:14 We can adjust our style and tone. I didn't expect us, in 2025, to design AIs that are really good, good at IQ, knowledge, and, and factualness, have really pretty good personalities, can actually take actions on our behalf, and can manage group settings. The group thing is very exciting.

40:35 – 41:50

Where all this is leading us in the next few years

Marina Mogilko 40:35 Wow! Well, where does this lead us, uh, in ten years, this particular quality of AI?

Mustafa Suleyman 40:40 I think it's going to be the main frontier. I think it's gonna be the most interesting part because those group settings will involve other humans joining them. So it could be a professional joining, like a, a lawyer to give legal advice, and then that lawyer's gonna bring their own AI paralegal to fact-check-

Marina Mogilko 41:00 Oh, wow

Mustafa Suleyman 41:00 ... or to summarize. Or it could be the doctor, and you will have spoken to your AI doctor for half an hour before the human doctor comes in to the same chat, and the AI doctor will have summarized everything, briefed you, talked you through everything, reassured you, answered twenty-five questions, and then you talk to the human at the end for a shorter time-

Marina Mogilko 41:20 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 41:20 ... and get the full feedback from the human. And the human doctor knows that its AI is the one that has been approved, and it relies on-

Marina Mogilko 41:27 Mm

Mustafa Suleyman 41:27 ... and it kind of reflects them. Um, so you'll have humans and AIs of different types all in the same group setting.

Marina Mogilko 41:34 Like a Zoom call. [laughing]

Mustafa Suleyman 41:35 Yeah, kind of like a Zoom call-

Marina Mogilko 41:36 Or-

Mustafa Suleyman 41:36 ... or a Zoom chat.

Marina Mogilko 41:37 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 41:37 You know, it's like a... It's basically like... Well, I mean, that's what-- it's Copilot Groups. [laughing]

Marina Mogilko 41:40 Yeah.

Mustafa Suleyman 41:41 You know, there's gonna be-

Marina Mogilko 41:41 Yeah, yeah

Mustafa Suleyman 41:41 ... group chat all the time.

Marina Mogilko 41:43 Wow. Okay, this is so fascinating. Thank you so much.

Mustafa Suleyman 41:47 Pleasure. Thank you for having me. This has been really fun.

Marina Mogilko 41:49 Yeah. Thank you.

Episode duration: 41:50

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