Nobel Prize Winner: Nobody Sees What's Coming After AI

1. 0:00 – 1:46

   Intro

   1. MMMarina Mogilko0:00

      The skills you're building right now are for the AI era, but they have an expiration date. Every few years, something comes along that changes what's actually possible. The internet didn't make libraries faster, it made them irrelevant. AI didn't make search engines better, it made a completely different way of finding answers. And now we have something that's coming that most people haven't even heard of yet, and it does the same thing to computing itself. In December 2024, Google unveiled a quantum processor that completed a calculation in minutes. That exact calculation that would take today's supercomputers longer than the age of the universe, and that is a different category of a machine. And here's where it gets a little scary. A few days ago, Google published another paper. They say quantum computers could crack Bitcoin encryption in nine minutes using 20 times fewer resources than anyone thought. As someone who holds crypto and is curious about implications of quantum on my day-to-day life, I wanted to ask questions. So I was in Davos this January, and I met the man whose 1985 discovery made all of this possible. He just won the Nobel Prize for it, and President Donald Trump just put him on his science advisory council, alongside with Mark Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin, and Jensen Huang. He's the only scientist in that room, and he gave me a timeline, five to 10 years. And to understand why this matters for your career, you need to understand what he actually discovered. Let's talk to John Martinis. I wanted to talk to you about something that you discovered. So I don't have any experience in quantum physics, but the way I understood it, if you throw a ball against the wall, it bumps, right?

   2. JMJohn Martinis1:40

      Right.

   3. MMMarina Mogilko1:41

      But you discovered that an electron can pass the wall without passing it-

   4. JMJohn Martinis1:45

      Yes

   5. MMMarina Mogilko1:45

      ... and be on both

2. 1:46 – 2:37

   John Martinis explains quantum tunneling

   1. MMMarina Mogilko1:46

      sides?

   2. JMJohn Martinis1:47

      Yeah, so it's possible that the, the ball... You know, the wall can tunnel through the wall, uh, and, and not just bounce off-

   3. MMMarina Mogilko1:55

      Mm-hmm

   4. JMJohn Martinis1:55

      ... but every once in a while actually tunnel through it. And the way I like to say it is that, you know, people are accustomed that quantum mechanics is the physics of atoms and molecules and microscopic particles. In here, we made electrical circuit about that big, and the currents and voltages in that big macroscopic electrical circuit is actually, uh, obeying quantum mechanics-

   5. MMMarina Mogilko2:19

      Mm-hmm

   6. JMJohn Martinis2:19

      ... and showing this tunneling phenomenon.

   7. MMMarina Mogilko2:21

      That's the moment quantum stopped being just theory. He proved it works in machines, and that's what started everything. So before this discovery, scientists thought quantum mechanics only lived inside atoms. He proved it works in machines. So what does

3. 2:37 – 4:55

   Why this discovery won the Nobel Prize

   1. MMMarina Mogilko2:37

      that unlock?

   2. JMJohn Martinis2:38

      What really happened, uh, with, with this idea, and frankly, it's the reason for the Nobel Prize [laughs] , is that we took this discovery, and then people built on it, built on it, and then the idea of build... Of qu- qubits and building a quantum computer came along, which naturally... Our just physics naturally fit into this. So, uh, it's really kind of the, the c- creation of a field of discovery and innovation and technology that these experiments got developed into and why it's important today.

   3. MMMarina Mogilko3:14

      Yeah. When you, when you say quantum computer, a lot of people think science fiction.

   4. JMJohn Martinis3:18

      Right.

   5. MMMarina Mogilko3:18

      For people who don't know how it affects their daily lives or might affect their daily lives, can you give two or three examples where quantum computers really make a difference?

   6. JMJohn Martinis3:26

      Um, the, the idea I like to talk about is, um, for, uh, doing design of materials or molecules or chemistry. And, uh, people are, are very familiar right now how you use computers to [laughs] design your kitchen, make a mechanical part, des- design electronic circuit, uh, you know, other things. So you can build it virtually.

   7. MMMarina Mogilko3:56

      Yeah.

   8. JMJohn Martinis3:56

      And then when you go and you build it in the real world, building it virtually in the digital is a lot cheaper and better, and you can think about the trade-offs. Well, a quantum computer would enable you to do that with molecules-

   9. MMMarina Mogilko4:11

      Mm-hmm

   10. JMJohn Martinis4:11

       ... and, you know, certain atomic molecules, other things.

   11. MMMarina Mogilko4:14

       This, this moving part. What about drug discovery? I feel like if we're-

   12. JMJohn Martinis4:17

       Yes, and, and the, the same kind-

   13. MMMarina Mogilko4:19

       Yeah

   14. JMJohn Martinis4:19

       ... of thing, uh, with drug discovery. So if you can simulate the molecules really well, then, uh, you can maybe even just gain some insight. I mean, what I've been told is that, for example, the drug discovery, it's very expensive to do this. And if you can improve, let's just say, your insight on how the drug works by 1% or a few percent, that's really valuable and could be worth a lot of money.

   15. MMMarina Mogilko4:45

       Yeah.

   16. JMJohn Martinis4:45

       So, so it's not like we have to totally change things, but, uh, um, I, I think just improvements and better insights can be quite valuable for companies.

4. 4:55 – 6:04

   What does life look like in 10 years with quantum everywhere?

   1. MMMarina Mogilko4:55

      But if we go 10 years forward, what do you think our life is gonna look like if quantum computing is everywhere and accessible to everyone? How's it gonna change?

   2. JMJohn Martinis5:03

      So, um, there's kind of two things involved in this. First of all, we have to build better hardware, and then we have to be... You know, think about algorithms, be smarter with the algorithms and the like. And there's just kind of a gap now, and maybe some people think there's not much of a gap, and other people think there's a big gap, but we need to close the gap, and that's b- building better hardware, which is what I'm doing in my company. We're trying to do that as well as many other people, and then people have to be more clever. And what's interesting, as you build better hardware, you can test out the algorithms better, and then you can maybe discover exactly what's... You know, what you need to get it to work right. So it's a very interesting time where, you know, we're... Everyone's really trying to, to push these things together and get it to work properly.

   3. MMMarina Mogilko5:55

      Yeah. It feels like it's a really fast-growing market. According to Quantum Insider Report, it's gonna generate $1 trillion in economic value in the next 10 years.

5. 6:04 – 8:54

   What it actually takes to build a real quantum computer

   1. JMJohn Martinis6:04

      Uh, well, that's a optimistic scenario-

   2. MMMarina Mogilko6:06

      Uh-huh

   3. JMJohn Martinis6:06

      ... that we find useful things to do. It's quite possible that will happen, and certainly I like those kind of forecasts because when we try to raise money-

   4. MMMarina Mogilko6:15

      Because you're running a company. Yeah. [laughs]

   5. JMJohn Martinis6:16

      But our idea is that what we're really trying to do in our company is make a general purpose error-corrected quantum computer-And not at hundreds of cube, physical qubits, what are people now, but you may need a million physical qubits operating in the way where the errors go down and, and, and it works properly, where I think the real value will be unlocked. And, you know, uh, the long-term value. But certainly there... I... You know, if people do this in the next few years, you'll get, you'll get good value. But the ult- those kind of numbers you're talking about, you know, our thesis is you're gonna build this big computer and make it very well.

   6. MMMarina Mogilko6:59

      As you might have realized, I had this conversation with John at Davos, and honestly, every conversation during World Economic Forum was with someone like John, a Nobel Prize winner, a professor, a founder of an AI company. And then you walk out knowing something important was said, but by the time you sit down to act on it, you've lost the nuance, the exact words. What was the tool that he mentioned? What was the hack that was gonna work for my case? And that's the problem this device solves. It's called Plaud. Guest calls, partner calls, internal team syncs, the conversations that actually move things forward, this little device records and analyzes everything. It's a small wearable, one press to record, no phone on the table between you and the person you're talking to. You stay fully present in the conversation, and afterwards you get a structured summary. Decisions, next steps, key insights, 10,000 plus templates by conversation type, industry, and language. So what you get back actually reflects what the meeting was. This is our conversation with John. Here's the transcript, every speaker labeled, and here's the summary. Key insights, action items pulled automatically. 1.5 million people use it. 98 transcription accuracy, works in person, on Zoom, over the phone, and it fits in my phone's case. Find the link in the description. If you're having conversations that matter, and clearly you are 'cause you're here, this device is worth checking out. And of course, you always disclose when you record conversations. That's natural. So he's betting on hardware the way Jensen Huang bet on GPUs before anyone knew what they were for. Now, that's the question that has been on my mind since I heard about quantum computing. Yeah, what, what do you think for all the entrepreneurs who are watching who want to start building something in this field, what are the most, uh, exciting markets when it comes to quantum computing? Is it building hardware or is it, like, applying the algorithms?

6. 8:54 – 10:21

   Advice for entrepreneurs

   1. JMJohn Martinis8:54

      Well, there's a lot of effort into algorithms because building software and algorithms is a relatively low cost.

   2. MMMarina Mogilko9:03

      Yeah. [laughs]

   3. JMJohn Martinis9:04

      Uh, you don't have to buy... So, so our company is doing the exact wrong thing [laughs] , which is investing in building hardware really well. Now, the nice thing is, is that once you do that, you can be... and you're successful, you can be a extremely successful company. And I, I, uh, I like to think about Nvidia-

   4. MMMarina Mogilko9:25

      Yeah

   5. JMJohn Martinis9:25

      ... although they're partnering with TSMC, but their knowledge of designing the computers and putting together the systems have made them extremely, uh, valuable company. And w- and our view on hardware is that, um, you know, it's possible for us to do that, uh, do that too. So we're taking the hard approach-

   6. MMMarina Mogilko9:47

      Mm-hmm

   7. JMJohn Martinis9:47

      ... uh, and, and focusing on the hardware. And then our particular thesis is that if you look at superconducting qubits right now and where they are, I mean, I helped invent all the things to get there, um, and, uh, I think it's great and- but it's still kind of, um, a little bit, I'd say academic or maybe even artisanal-

   8. MMMarina Mogilko10:09

      Mm-hmm

   9. JMJohn Martinis10:09

      ... uh, uh, fabrication, and that we're trying to use much more established semiconductor, uh, tools and fabrication process and the like in order to scale up and make the

7. 10:21 – 11:50

   Which industries will be transformed most?

   1. JMJohn Martinis10:21

      qubits better.

   2. MMMarina Mogilko10:22

      Yeah. And w- when it comes to markets, what, what do you think are the markets that are gonna be transformed the most? We talked about healthcare, finance. Any other markets?

   3. JMJohn Martinis10:30

      I- it, it's all, all of the above.

   4. MMMarina Mogilko10:32

      Yeah, I agree.

   5. JMJohn Martinis10:32

      And, and you hear people working, working on that, but I like that we have very definite, um, ideas on how to build it. So let me... I, I, I can explain this for maybe some of the Silicon Valley types. I really love Peter Thiel's book, Zero to One.

   6. MMMarina Mogilko10:50

      Mm-hmm.

   7. JMJohn Martinis10:50

      Okay? And that kind of, in some sense, explains my, uh, my career. So I am very much a definite optimist. I wanna know what to build. I wanna know what to build to make it useful, and that's what that paper was all about. Now, there's a lot of people in this field who are indefinite optimists. In fact, most people in the United States are, and they, they have all the ideas like you're talking about, and I think that's great. I'm glad people are pushing that. My particular, um, way my mind works and what's al- always been successful is to really focus it, focus in on something definite you have to do.

   8. MMMarina Mogilko11:29

      Mm-hmm.

   9. JMJohn Martinis11:29

      However, I'm very well aware you're in a startup company, you'll probably have to pivot-

   10. MMMarina Mogilko11:35

       Yeah

   11. JMJohn Martinis11:35

       ... and think about different things, and we'd be happy to do that-

   12. MMMarina Mogilko11:38

       Yeah

   13. JMJohn Martinis11:38

       ... once, uh, those ideas come to fruition. But the one thing I know for sure is we have to make better qubits, and we have to make it scalable.

   14. MMMarina Mogilko11:45

       We need the hardware.

   15. JMJohn Martinis11:45

       Yeah. You know.

   16. MMMarina Mogilko11:46

       Yeah.

   17. JMJohn Martinis11:46

       So we need the hardware and... Okay. So that's what we're doing no matter what happens.

8. 11:50 – 17:08

   Will quantum computing break crypto?

   1. MMMarina Mogilko11:50

      Yeah. Uh, I think... So this question has been bothering me for a while. I think you're the right person to ask. Is quantum computing gonna break cryptocurrencies?

   2. JMJohn Martinis11:59

      Um, so, um, my, uh, the CEO of my company is an expert here, and I'm gonna hopefully, uh, re- re- re- represent it, uh, well enough.

   3. MMMarina Mogilko12:13

      Mm-hmm.

   4. JMJohn Martinis12:14

      Um, my understanding is if you have some of the older cryptocurrency that was encoded in a way that could be broken-But, um, some of the, it, it's the newer versions, it's, um, it's a little bit stiffer encryption.

   5. MMMarina Mogilko12:29

      Is that Bitcoin, the oldest?

   6. JMJohn Martinis12:30

      I, I think this is Bitcoin, i- as I recall.

   7. MMMarina Mogilko12:33

      So that one's-

   8. JMJohn Martinis12:34

      And then you can take your old Bitcoin-

   9. MMMarina Mogilko12:36

      Mm-hmm

   10. JMJohn Martinis12:37

       ... and, um, you know, pull it out and then re-encrypt it to make it, make it better.

   11. MMMarina Mogilko12:42

       Oh.

   12. JMJohn Martinis12:42

       Okay? So you can make it safe.

   13. MMMarina Mogilko12:44

       Okay.

   14. JMJohn Martinis12:44

       But there's a lot of Bitcoin that's kind of unclaimed that's old.

   15. MMMarina Mogilko12:48

       Mm-hmm.

   16. JMJohn Martinis12:48

       And it's a lot of money.

   17. MMMarina Mogilko12:50

       Oh, interesting.

   18. JMJohn Martinis12:51

       So-

   19. MMMarina Mogilko12:51

       So once quantum computer, computing breaks into that-

   20. JMJohn Martinis12:54

       So that is a market for a quantum computer.

   21. MMMarina Mogilko12:58

       Business idea. [laughs]

   22. JMJohn Martinis12:59

       Well, so we're aware of that.

   23. MMMarina Mogilko13:01

       Yeah, wow.

   24. JMJohn Martinis13:01

       Okay, and that's fine. Now what my CEO is doing, which I think is very responsible, is talking to the US Treasury about this.

   25. MMMarina Mogilko13:11

       Mm-hmm.

   26. JMJohn Martinis13:12

       Because the US Treasury is gonna be concerned that if other companies or, uh, you know, criminal organizations get, get ahold of that money-

   27. MMMarina Mogilko13:23

       Yeah

   28. JMJohn Martinis13:23

       ... it's a lot of money.

   29. MMMarina Mogilko13:24

       Yeah, it is.

   30. JMJohn Martinis13:25

       That, um, you know, that's a real issue, and you probably wanna set up laws and some system in order to, uh, you know, do that.
9. 17:08 – 19:41

   How he got pushed out of Google

   1. JMJohn Martinis17:08

      that, you know-

   2. MMMarina Mogilko17:09

      Oh

   3. JMJohn Martinis17:09

      ... uh, and, and the way that the, everything's operating, that they don't think anyone has break- has broken it.

   4. MMMarina Mogilko17:14

      Yeah.

   5. JMJohn Martinis17:15

      So, so it needs time to do this.

   6. MMMarina Mogilko17:17

      You know, you've, you're observing extremely rare, uh, extremely, extremely rare events, and you're building something that is completely new. Has that changed how you think about luck, black swan moments? Because you're observing them b- basically in your work.

   7. JMJohn Martinis17:32

      Um, what's kind of, uh, strange in my career is, um, I've been developing a series of experiments, uh, and, um, uh, how I've gone from, you know, one project to the other. And what's kind of funny in my career is I do a project, and then somehow it doesn't work out in some way, and then I'm, you know, stuck wondering, "Well, I have to do something else." And, um, and then I figure out what else to do that's really interesting. So changing all the, the different topics and projects is, has always come through some strange event, often kind of a negative event. And just to give you an example, I, I was, w- I went to Google-They paid me well. We did this quantum supremacy experiment. And, uh, but then at some point after the quantum supremacy, they wanted to change the way they managed the group, and essentially I was not Googly enough to stay at Google, and I had to leave.

   8. MMMarina Mogilko18:46

      Mm-hmm.

   9. JMJohn Martinis18:46

      Which was, uh, you know, kind of difficult to, to essentially leave a project you started-

   10. MMMarina Mogilko18:52

       Yeah

   11. JMJohn Martinis18:52

       ... way back in graduate school. However, by leaving Google, I was then free to think very creatively and free to think, "Well, we're building in a certain way, and how do I really wanna build this to make it scalable and better and whatever?" And by starting my own company and through think- thinking freely and, you know, starting it with the co-founders, we were able to come with, with a bunch and, uh, ideas how to make it better.

   12. MMMarina Mogilko19:22

       Yeah.

   13. JMJohn Martinis19:22

       And it could be that although that was a very, let's say, traumatic, uh, thing, I'm, I'm sure other people have gone through this, that may be the best thing for me and the field that I was able to do something, uh, something new out of it.

   14. MMMarina Mogilko19:36

       Absolutely. And now you have your company.

   15. JMJohn Martinis19:38

       So, so, you know-

   16. MMMarina Mogilko19:39

       Yeah

   17. JMJohn Martinis19:39

       ... that's one thing. And, and this

10. 19:41 – 22:26

    What to do about quantum and AI right now

    1. JMJohn Martinis19:41

       has happened to me over and over again, and you, I kind of have to accept that, you know, that's, you know, sometimes these setbacks in life are actually very good for you. So the good thing is this year I just kind of... I knew it was coming up, but I totally forgot about it. So when the phone call came, it was a complete surprise.

    2. MMMarina Mogilko19:58

       Is it like in the middle of the night or like-

    3. JMJohn Martinis19:59

       Middle of the night. Well, and it was... My wife was awake when she saw, she heard the phone, phone ringing, but she thought she'd catch in the morning. And then she was just going to sleep, and she looked at her email, and there was all these congratulations. But that was like, you know, 2:30 in the morning.

    4. MMMarina Mogilko20:17

       Yeah.

    5. JMJohn Martinis20:18

       And she knows I need my sleep, so, um, she didn't tell me-

    6. MMMarina Mogilko20:24

       Oh

    7. JMJohn Martinis20:24

       ... uh, until about 6:00.

    8. MMMarina Mogilko20:27

       That needs a little- [laughs]

    9. JMJohn Martinis20:27

       You know, because I needed my sleep.

    10. MMMarina Mogilko20:30

        Yeah.

    11. JMJohn Martinis20:30

        And also, there were reporters who were coming to that house, and they wanted to wake me up in bed.

    12. MMMarina Mogilko20:37

        And she, she pushed them away, like, "Let him get his sleep." [laughs]

    13. JMJohn Martinis20:39

        She said, "No way are we gonna do that."

    14. MMMarina Mogilko20:42

        Wow.

    15. JMJohn Martinis20:43

        S- but, um, I do remember her, like, you know, sitting in the bed and, you know, waking me up gently and saying, "Hey, there's some reporters." And [laughs] and, and you know, I kinda, I knew it's October. So I, I just opened my computer and I saw, you know, my picture there-

    16. MMMarina Mogilko21:00

        Wow

    17. JMJohn Martinis21:00

        ... with, uh, with John and Michelle. So that was a very, like, it's just you can't believe that it- it's happening to you.

    18. MMMarina Mogilko21:07

        Sounds like a fairy tale.

    19. JMJohn Martinis21:08

        It's a fairy tale.

    20. MMMarina Mogilko21:09

        It's amazing.

    21. JMJohn Martinis21:09

        And what I would say is I think the most interesting part is you get to go to things like this, uh, and, and see, have these very amazing experiences.

    22. MMMarina Mogilko21:19

        You mean like Lifetime? Here's what I actually walked away with. JP Morgan and Google aren't waiting for quantum to be ready. They are already deploying it. The race is happening whether your industry knows it or not. The encryption protecting everything you do online, your bank, your company data, your messages, was built before quantum computers existed. John's timeline, five to 10 years. So that's not a distant problem. If you work in tech, finance, or cybersecurity, this is the conversation I think we should be having right now. In my newsletter this week, I mapped out which industries are most exposed right now and what people in those fields are actually doing about it, and how can you start adjusting your career for what's to come. My newsletter is called Future Proof. The link is in the description. Quantum is five to 10 years out. AI is right now. I talked to a Stanford professor about exactly what to do in the next 30 days. That video's right here on the screen. It is very practical. It's gonna make you excited about AI and excited about introducing it into your workflows. See you in that episode, and thank you for watching this up to the very end. Bye.

Episode duration: 22:27