The Future You Avoid Is Riskier Than the One You Face with Reid Hoffman | A Bit of Optimism Podcast

1. 0:00 – 2:06

   Reid Hoffman’s sci‑fi roots and the urge to shape a better world

   1. SSSimon Sinek0:00

      I'm going down that rabbit hole. [chuckles] What science fiction do we need these days, Reid? [laughs]

   2. RHReid Hoffman0:07

      So the thing that was really magical for me, but for us-

   3. SSSimon Sinek0:11

      Yeah

   4. RHReid Hoffman0:12

      ... you know, in the '60s, '70s, '80s, even to some degree the early '90s, was a notion that what we're creating with technology, what we're creating as the possible human future-

   5. SSSimon Sinek0:24

      Yep

   6. RHReid Hoffman0:25

      ... can be amazing. Like this, the sense of the world could be much better-

   7. SSSimon Sinek0:31

      Mm-hmm

   8. RHReid Hoffman0:32

      ... for all human beings.

   9. SSSimon Sinek0:33

      Mm-hmm.

   10. RHReid Hoffman0:34

       Not to say without big challenges and navigations and issues, but it could be. And you don't have to be as simplistic as, like, "The Jetsons." Um-

   11. SSSimon Sinek0:41

       Right. [pensive music]

   12. RHReid Hoffman0:42

       But it just kind of a sense of what are the, what does the path ahead look like?

   13. SSSimon Sinek0:47

       There are only a handful of entrepreneurs who it's safe to say that their companies changed the way we do things. Reid Hoffman is one of those entrepreneurs, and LinkedIn is one of those companies. There was a time when posting our resumes online would get us fired. [whip cracking] Now, being on LinkedIn is just how we work. His mentality of giving power back to the people has permeated every aspect of Reid's life, even his full embrace of AI and what it can do for humanity, which he writes about in his book, "Superagency." But it was our conversation about idealism, the need for it, and what happened to it that really inspired me. This is "A Bit of Optimism." [whimsical music] What did you wanna be when you were a kid?

   14. RHReid Hoffman1:43

       Oh, that's interesting. There are different phases. Um, it was, um... I'd say the first thought was probably a science fiction author, um, because I was reading a lot of science fiction.

   15. SSSimon Sinek1:58

       How old, how, how old are you now a- approximately?

   16. RHReid Hoffman2:00

       Uh, I am... Well, my birthday was two days ago, so I'm 58 and two days. [chuckles]

   17. SSSimon Sinek2:05

       Oh, happy birthday.

2. 2:06 – 4:10

   From ‘director of the CIA’ to rejecting power fantasies and finding real leverage

   1. RHReid Hoffman2:06

      Thank you. And then I started realizing that you wanted to kind of m- uh, contribute to making the world better. So then I had this kind of plan, and I think it's a very science fiction, uh, enhanced plan, that I and a group of friends would all get into positions by which we could influence the world to try to make it more peaceful, less warlike, more compassionate, you know, kind of key, what we think of as essential human virtues.

   2. SSSimon Sinek2:38

      Right.

   3. RHReid Hoffman2:38

      And then realized that... Oh, and, [chuckles] and, and this is, this will be a very weird thing that I've never, ever said before on a public camera. My theory, now this is again a 12-year-old's theory-

   4. SSSimon Sinek2:51

      Right. Okay

   5. RHReid Hoffman2:53

      ... uh, is, was like, "Oh, and the right way to do that will be to become the director of the CIA." And then when I was talking about that with my dad, he bought a book for me called "The Crimes of the US Intelligence Agencies." [both laughing] And I was reading through it, like, "Oh, assassinations. Oh," [laughs] like... And I was like, "Okay, scratch that plan." Uh, and then after that, I didn't have a plan for a long time. Um, I guess through universities it was try to contribute to public intellectual discourse, which what I mean is, is who are we and who should we be as individuals-

   6. SSSimon Sinek3:27

      Mm-hmm

   7. RHReid Hoffman3:27

      ... and as groups. Um, and you know, I thought maybe being an academic would be a path to that, so there was a, there was a number of years where I thought I'd become a philosophy professor. Uh, and then, uh, I realized that the, that the kind of the scholarship canon of-

   8. SSSimon Sinek3:45

      Yeah

   9. RHReid Hoffman3:45

      ... the academic humanities was more about scholarship and less about the kind of the evolution of the human condition, about the participation and-

   10. SSSimon Sinek3:53

       Yeah

   11. RHReid Hoffman3:54

       ... the improvement of society. And I was like, "Okay, I don't wanna do that."

   12. SSSimon Sinek3:56

       Yeah.

   13. RHReid Hoffman3:57

       Fortunately, I'd gone through Stanford, so I understood, I was like, "Wait a minute. What is this software entrepreneurship thing? That could be interesting." [chuckles] And that's, you know, how I ended up on my modern path.

   14. SSSimon Sinek4:07

       And, and the rest, as they say, is history.

   15. RHReid Hoffman4:10

       Yes.

3. 4:10 – 5:48

   Why Reid always answers with a plan (and what that reveals)

   1. SSSimon Sinek4:10

      Um, what I think is so interesting is I asked you what did you wanna be when you grew up, like when, what did you wanna be when you were a little kid, and you said, "My plan was..."

   2. RHReid Hoffman4:18

      Yes.

   3. SSSimon Sinek4:19

      Those are not the same que- [laughs] question.

   4. RHReid Hoffman4:23

      Yes.

   5. SSSimon Sinek4:24

      Like, I wanted to be an astronaut.

   6. RHReid Hoffman4:26

      Mm-hmm.

   7. SSSimon Sinek4:26

      There was no plan for that. It was just the idea of it was so magical and fantastical.

   8. RHReid Hoffman4:33

      I don't think I have ever had a, a thing that it wasn't a plan, like all the way back to five. Like, so like that's the way I an- like the, the way that Reid answers that question-

   9. SSSimon Sinek4:47

      Yeah. Yeah, yeah

   10. RHReid Hoffman4:47

       ... is that way, right?

   11. SSSimon Sinek4:48

       Yeah.

   12. RHReid Hoffman4:48

       It's like you say, "Okay, what do you wanna be? You wanna be an astronaut. Okay, what do you need to do in order to become an astronaut?"

   13. SSSimon Sinek4:56

       Right.

   14. RHReid Hoffman4:57

       Like, okay, I need to understand physics. I need to have a certain kind of physical capability. I need to be within certain kinds of, of programs in order to do it, you know, et cetera, et cetera. And then that would start being like, like, you know, like, like at least components of thinking to start-

   15. SSSimon Sinek5:11

       Right. Right

   16. RHReid Hoffman5:11

       ... if not action.

   17. SSSimon Sinek5:13

       The, the... But you, the one fantasy you had, I guess, was to be a science fiction author.

   18. RHReid Hoffman5:19

       Yep.

   19. SSSimon Sinek5:20

       What was the reason you wanted to be a science fiction author?

   20. RHReid Hoffman5:23

       Well, it was participating in the dialogue. I mean, the thing that I loved about science fiction as a child-

   21. SSSimon Sinek5:28

       No five-year-old or 12-year-old says, "I wanna participate in the dialogue."

   22. RHReid Hoffman5:32

       Oh, yeah. No, no. The... Look, I, I, I, [chuckles] I was, I was... Well, look, I may not have said that sentence, but that was what the intent was.

   23. SSSimon Sinek5:41

       "Mom, Dad,"

   24. RHReid Hoffman5:41

       [chuckles]

   25. SSSimon Sinek5:41

       "I would like to contribute to the discussion of the betterment of humankind through my works of science fiction."

4. 5:48 – 8:45

   D&D, Chaosium, and ‘participating in the dialogue’ by doing the work

   1. RHReid Hoffman5:48

      Yes. Look, to give you a sense here, I'll, I'll tell you a funny anecdote from 12. Um, so I was actually intensely into fantasy role-playing games. Um-

   2. SSSimon Sinek5:57

      Yes

   3. RHReid Hoffman5:57

      ... I started when I was eight because my dad hired a babysitterUm, who introduced me to Dungeons & Dragons, and then was surprised by my-- the next day when I was talking to him, was like, "Could you go out on dates more often?" [laughing] Right? Like, "Hire Michael the babysitter back."

   4. SSSimon Sinek6:15

      Right.

   5. RHReid Hoffman6:16

      Like, every night's good, right? Um, and, and so when I got to 12, I was talking to some of my, uh, friends at school, and one of them said, "Hey, there's this, there's this, um, fantasy role-playing game company called The Chaosium," um-

   6. SSSimon Sinek6:31

      Mm-hmm

   7. RHReid Hoffman6:31

      ... which publishes a game called "RuneQuest" that is, like, uh, the next block over from my house. And so I literally walked down there, walked into the office, and started trying to, like, get in the action, 'cause it was kinda-

   8. SSSimon Sinek6:45

      Yeah

   9. RHReid Hoffman6:45

      ... like, like, how do I, how do I participate in this making of fantasy role-playing games and doing stuff? And I remember the, the really irritated, um, look that the, uh, editor-in-chief was like, "Who the f..." Like, it's our customers, so we kinda can't kick them out brutally.

   10. SSSimon Sinek7:01

       Right.

   11. RHReid Hoffman7:01

       But like, how the fuck do we get rid of this kid? And, and so what he did, and, and it was only years later when I realized what that look meant.

   12. SSSimon Sinek7:09

       Right. Right.

   13. RHReid Hoffman7:09

       [chuckles] It was like at the time it was like, "Hmm, I'm here." Uh, and he, um, he handed me a, uh, a scenario pack, which is kinda what they give to the person who's leading the game adventure, the game master-

   14. SSSimon Sinek7:22

       Right

   15. RHReid Hoffman7:22

       ... dungeon master to do stuff.

   16. SSSimon Sinek7:23

       Right.

   17. RHReid Hoffman7:23

       He said, "We're working on this. Go look at this and then come back." And I think he thought, "Okay, this kid'll never come back 'cause, like, I've given the kid work." Being the obsessive kid that I was, this was, I think, Friday afternoon. I came back Monday afternoon with the entire thing, like, red-lined. But like, I'd worked through it. I was like, "This part doesn't work. You need a character here." You know, da, 'cause I just worked the entire weekend-

   18. SSSimon Sinek7:49

       Right

   19. RHReid Hoffman7:49

       ... on this thing.

   20. SSSimon Sinek7:49

       Right.

   21. RHReid Hoffman7:50

       And, [chuckles] and I... No, I did know when he, when I handed it to him, he was like, "Oh, God. That didn't work." Uh, and then he started looking at it and went, "I need to pay you for this." [laughs] Right? 'Cause, like, "I wanna use this, so I'm gonna write you a check." And, uh, and so it was my actually first ever, uh, job for payment. But it was that same kind of participate in the dialogue. Be-

   22. SSSimon Sinek8:13

       Yeah

   23. RHReid Hoffman8:13

       ... be, be kind of part of what is being created. And that was the... You know, that's, that, that's the reason why, like, that as a science fiction author, which I may still at some point try to get some science fiction created. I don't know if I will ever write any myself, but I may try to organize a project to create some of the kind of science fiction I think we need these days.

   24. SSSimon Sinek8:35

       Ooh. I was about to go to the next question. Some of the science fiction dot dot dot that we need these days.

   25. RHReid Hoffman8:43

       Yes.

   26. SSSimon Sinek8:43

       Okay. [chuckles]

   27. RHReid Hoffman8:45

       Yeah.

5. 8:45 – 11:26

   The science fiction we need now: optimistic futures, not just dystopias

   1. SSSimon Sinek8:45

      I'm going down that rabbit hole. [laughs] What science fiction do we need these days, Reid? [laughs]

   2. RHReid Hoffman8:52

      So the thing that was really magical for us, for me, but for us-

   3. SSSimon Sinek8:58

      Yeah

   4. RHReid Hoffman8:58

      ... you know, in the, you know, the '60s, '70s, '80s, even to some degree the early '90s, maybe even into the '90s, was a notion that what we're creating with technology, what we're creating as the possible human future-

   5. SSSimon Sinek9:13

      Yep

   6. RHReid Hoffman9:14

      ... can be amazing. Doesn't mean that there aren't real issues. You know, "Terminator" was made in the '90s, and so are then some things to kind of navigate. But, like, this, this sense of the world could be much better-

   7. SSSimon Sinek9:28

      Mm-hmm

   8. RHReid Hoffman9:28

      ... for all human beings.

   9. SSSimon Sinek9:30

      Mm-hmm.

   10. RHReid Hoffman9:30

       Not to say without big challenges and navigations and issues, but it could be. And you don't have to be as simplistic as, like, you know, "The Jetsons." Um-

   11. SSSimon Sinek9:38

       Right

   12. RHReid Hoffman9:38

       ... but it's just kind of a, um, you know, kind of a sense of what are the, what does the path ahead look like? And right now, when you look at the majority of science fiction, especially of the, the video format, you know, movies-

   13. SSSimon Sinek9:55

       Mm-hmm

   14. RHReid Hoffman9:55

       ... and so forth, the vast majority of that is dystopic.

   15. SSSimon Sinek9:58

       Yes.

   16. RHReid Hoffman9:59

       Um, and the problem is you don't get a future... Like, you don't get a future that you want by avoiding-

   17. SSSimon Sinek10:05

       Right

   18. RHReid Hoffman10:05

       ... the futures you don't want. It's a little bit like if I was planning on driving from San Francisco down to see you in LA, if I said, "Well, I first have to plan to avoid all possible traffic accidents, all possible potholes, all possible..." I'll never get to LA.

   19. SSSimon Sinek10:20

       Right.

   20. RHReid Hoffman10:20

       It's just I won't get there. I won't even get-

   21. SSSimon Sinek10:22

       Right

   22. RHReid Hoffman10:22

       ... in the car to go.

   23. SSSimon Sinek10:23

       Right.

   24. RHReid Hoffman10:23

       And so you have to have a, like, this is the future that we're trying to get to. And of course you go, "Hey, it's raining a lot. I should drive a little slower." [chuckles] You know, there's a lot-

   25. SSSimon Sinek10:32

       You adjust.

   26. RHReid Hoffman10:32

       You know, you adjust. But you have to have that, and we need that in science fiction. We need that, that kind of sense of imagination of, of goodness. And matter of fact, in 2019, 'cause I had been talking to the creative arts agency about this, um, you know, some of my friends there, Richard Lovett and others, had asked me to come and, and give a talk at the end-

   27. SSSimon Sinek10:53

       Mm-hmm

   28. RHReid Hoffman10:53

       ... of their talent summary, and I basically was like, "You know, it's up to you guys to start, stop harming our, the imagination of our human futures."

   29. SSSimon Sinek11:02

       Yeah.

   30. RHReid Hoffman11:02

       And I get it that the most natural drama is man versus machine, where the evil-
6. 11:26 – 14:17

   AI discourse as today’s sci‑fi—and how much to trust the builders

   1. SSSimon Sinek11:26

      Two completely different paths. I'm gonna go down one, and I'll come back and go down the other. Okay, two rabbit holes. One, is the whole discussion about AI right now the science fiction? Is the discussion of AI the imagining the future, what could be the idealism to some of the scariness as well? Because it's dominating every conversation, every conference, you know, for good, for good reasons and annoying reasons. But, uh, is that the s- the s- the, the, the science fiction dis- discourse of the day?

   2. RHReid Hoffman11:59

      Most of it. Most of it is because, um-It's much easier to imagine how things go wrong than how they go right.

   3. SSSimon Sinek12:10

      Mm-hmm.

   4. RHReid Hoffman12:10

      Uh, and so-

   5. SSSimon Sinek12:11

      But tho-those, those that are investing in, in AI, you know, have no dystopian anything, it's all utopian, and i- is-- it-- can we trust that their science fiction views of the future are the ones that should inspire us? Or should w- should we be cynical given their, their conflicts of interest?

   6. RHReid Hoffman12:30

      Well, I would say call it 85% trust, 15% cynicism. [chuckles]

   7. SSSimon Sinek12:34

      Okay.

   8. RHReid Hoffman12:35

      Right? So is the fact that, you know, the facts, the people at OpenAI and Anthropic and Google and Microsoft are all actually, in fact, people like you and I care about what happens with, you know, their friends and family, their communities, and all the rest, that cares about, like, what happens in terms of the progress of the elevation of human welfare? Absolutely, yes.

   9. SSSimon Sinek12:57

      Mm-hmm.

   10. RHReid Hoffman12:58

       Um, and so, you know, the kind of the simplistic, you know, what is kind of classic, mostly lefty populist story, which is, "Oh, because of profit, they're gonna, like, ruin the whole-

   11. SSSimon Sinek13:10

       Yep

   12. RHReid Hoffman13:10

       ... human race." It just, it's, it's literally a deep misunderstandings in both human nature and the nature of corporations and how people work together, in the nature of, like, for example, even when you're a completely full-blooded capitalist, you're like, "Well, actually, in fact, ru- ruining humanity would be bad not just for me, but for my business." So it's kind of like it's this question on, like, the intents and so forth are good. Now, the reason why the 15% holdback is blind spots. Um, and part of where it's useful for, uh, for people who have, you know, uh, concerns is to say, "Well, I think there's a blind spot here, and there's something you-- we should do something about." Now, the most often blind spot is, "Well, we're driving to LA and we don't know, um, what the danger is ahead, so we should go five miles an hour." And you're like, "Well, that's not gonna work because-

   13. SSSimon Sinek14:03

       Right

   14. RHReid Hoffman14:03

       ... other people are not gonna go five miles an hour. Not other companies, not other countries, not other industries, et cetera, et cetera." So you, you have to say, "No, no, we're gonna go at, at the kind of speed of traffic."

   15. SSSimon Sinek14:13

       Right.

   16. RHReid Hoffman14:14

       "But we're gonna try to navigate it within going the speed of traffic."

7. 14:17 – 19:34

   Capitalism’s failures and tradeoffs: Kodak, medicine, and the ad model

   1. SSSimon Sinek14:17

      Okay. I, I ha- I'm gonna put on my cynical hat here.

   2. RHReid Hoffman14:20

      Mm-hmm.

   3. SSSimon Sinek14:20

      So you, you talk about the, the mi- the misunderstanding of capitalism, you know, that, you know, it's not good for business to destroy the planet or to destroy the inv- the, the market.

   4. RHReid Hoffman14:28

      Yeah.

   5. SSSimon Sinek14:28

      Um, you're talking about Adam Smith capitalism, which is, you know, which is, which is more long-term focused.

   6. RHReid Hoffman14:38

      Mm-hmm.

   7. SSSimon Sinek14:38

      It's what old-fashioned Goldman Sachs used to called long-term greed.

   8. RHReid Hoffman14:42

      Mm-hmm.

   9. SSSimon Sinek14:43

      Right? And a strong argument can be made because of the way that capitalism has become more and more short-termist, more and more shareholder-focused, not customer or, uh, employee-focused, that we will do damage to the market because by the time it's damaged, I'm out of here, right? And it, it just reminds me of, of Kodak-

   10. RHReid Hoffman15:11

       Yep

   11. SSSimon Sinek15:11

       ... where Kodak, in the 1970s, invented the digital camera-

   12. RHReid Hoffman15:16

       Hmm

   13. SSSimon Sinek15:17

       ... suppressed the technology f- because they didn't wanna cannibalize film sales and paper sales and chemical sales, and the thought of having to reinvent their company was like, "Ugh," and licensed their digital technology to Fuji and other Ja- Canon, other Japanese companies who sort of pioneered digital photography, and then eventually digital photography takes over and basically bankrupts Kodak. And the executives who made those decisions, who had foresight, let's be honest, they knew the world was gonna go digital. They weren't idiots. But at the end of the day, they bankrupted the company, but they were long gone and retired with their big, fat bonuses for driving the stock price up for the 10 years that, you know, they were making money, making coin off of the license. So is it maybe 50/50, not 85/15? [laughs]

   14. RHReid Hoffman16:08

       Well, but it would be... Can we-- Look, the worst part is actually the, the one that I most often use for where I think capitalism goes very wrong in human welfare is unfortunately the incentives in the medical industry, which is the incentives in the medical industry are we are all in cross, uh, chronic desperate conditions and need to be paying for drugs and dialysis and everything else every week in order to sustain. And I think that's the classic where the economic incentives kind of align to, to, you know, bad for society and stuff.

   15. SSSimon Sinek16:44

       The, the wrong thing.

   16. RHReid Hoffman16:44

       The wrong thing.

   17. SSSimon Sinek16:45

       Yeah.

   18. RHReid Hoffman16:45

       'Cause by the way, the, the collapse of Kodak is exactly the kind of thing where bad board of directors, bad management causes a company to collapse. And by the way, that does create chaos for the workers of Kodak, for the company town in Kodak, and so on. So it re-

   19. SSSimon Sinek17:00

       It destroyed Rochester.

   20. RHReid Hoffman17:02

       Yes, exactly.

   21. SSSimon Sinek17:02

       Yeah.

   22. RHReid Hoffman17:02

       So real issues. But at the overall, they, the, the market actually still assumes and goes to places beyond those bad actors, and the impact on, call it society as a whole, humanity, is not necessarily bad-

   23. SSSimon Sinek17:17

       Oh, I see what you mean. So they made, they made bad decisions for the company.

   24. RHReid Hoffman17:21

       Yes. And for their community-

   25. SSSimon Sinek17:22

       They didn't necessarily make bad decisions-

   26. RHReid Hoffman17:24

       ... and their employees

   27. SSSimon Sinek17:24

       ... for society writ large-

   28. RHReid Hoffman17:26

       Yeah

   29. SSSimon Sinek17:26

       ... you know, e- excluding the, the town in which they worked in.

   30. RHReid Hoffman17:29

       Yes. So but that's also-
8. 19:34 – 21:59

   ‘Superagency’ and the risk of precautionary paralysis in AI

   1. RHReid Hoffman19:34

      important... Look, if there was no t- you know, earlier this year, as you know, I, I, I published a book, "Superagency," to try-

   2. SSSimon Sinek19:41

      Yeah

   3. RHReid Hoffman19:41

      ... to make the optimistic case for AI. And, and obviously, it's, like, the most optimistic book for AI-

   4. SSSimon Sinek19:47

      Yeah

   5. RHReid Hoffman19:47

      ... that's out there, especially written by, you know-

   6. SSSimon Sinek19:49

      Dare I say, dare I say science fiction.

   7. RHReid Hoffman19:52

      Yeah. Well, um-

   8. SSSimon Sinek19:53

      [laughs]

   9. RHReid Hoffman19:53

      ... a, a lens to a, a more pragmatic science fiction. But yes. And, and, um... Now, if there was, if, if, if, if there was no criticism, I would've put more criticism in it, 'cause it's not that I'm absent to criticism, it's just that-

   10. SSSimon Sinek20:06

       Yeah, yeah

   11. RHReid Hoffman20:06

       ... the dialogue is so much like, "AI is coming for your jobs and for your lives and for..." You know, like, it's like, okay, like, that's science fiction, right? And it doesn't mean there aren't huge transformations, but the way that-

   12. SSSimon Sinek20:21

       Right

   13. RHReid Hoffman20:21

       ... we're talking about AI, part of what I was trying to remind people is, is the same way people talked about the printing press, right?

   14. SSSimon Sinek20:27

       Yeah.

   15. RHReid Hoffman20:27

       They said, "Well, but this time it's different." It's like, well, each time is indeed different.

   16. SSSimon Sinek20:31

       Yeah.

   17. RHReid Hoffman20:31

       And this time might be different. It has a lot of differences.

   18. SSSimon Sinek20:34

       Yeah.

   19. RHReid Hoffman20:35

       But don't take the trivial of I can think of something to go wrong, and therefore... 'Cause this is like, for example, a classic thing that is dis-discussed in this, and I'll get back to the, to the how much do we trust the companies. But classic thing is precautionary principle.

   20. SSSimon Sinek20:49

       Yeah.

   21. RHReid Hoffman20:49

       Which is, well, if something serious can go wrong, we should actually in fact try to totally minimize it. And if you're like, "Well, okay, you could die driving to LA." And if you say, "Well, I'm never gonna get in the car until I know that I couldn't drive dy- you know, die driving to LA," then you're never gonna get in the car.

   22. SSSimon Sinek21:09

       Right.

   23. RHReid Hoffman21:09

       [chuckles] So you have to be- have precautionary principles-

   24. SSSimon Sinek21:12

       Well, th- but there's, there's, there's acceptable risks.

   25. RHReid Hoffman21:14

       Yes.

   26. SSSimon Sinek21:15

       You know, you're not gonna get in a car without brakes.

   27. RHReid Hoffman21:17

       Yes. Uh, 100%.

   28. SSSimon Sinek21:19

       We have our cars inspected for a reason.

   29. RHReid Hoffman21:21

       Yes.

   30. SSSimon Sinek21:22

       And we want pilots to walk around-
9. 21:59 – 23:54

   What human faculties do we lose when we outsource thinking to AI?

   1. SSSimon Sinek21:59

      So, so here's, so here's, here... I have a question. I-

   2. RHReid Hoffman22:01

      Yeah

   3. SSSimon Sinek22:01

      ... I'd love to get your opinion about this, which is, and y- you know, you talked about how technology throughout history is disruptive and scary, and it does absolutely change the way our lives work. And I think we have to accept that depending on the technology, but some of those technologies change our, our brain. They change how we work. The Iliad was handed down through oral history. It's like, "Son, it's time I tell you the story of the Iliad." I'm like, "You memorized 800 pages?" Like, "No, no, my dad told me, and now I'm gonna tell you." And like-- And then when the printing press came out, the brain literally was like, "I don't need to remember stuff anymore," and it just stopped remembering stuff. I remember just in, in my lifetime, I used to have a mind like a steel trap for phone numbers. You told me your phone number, I knew everybody's phone number, lists of phone numbers. And then I was one of the first people to get a Casio digital diary with 2K of memory, and I put all the phone numbers out of my head into the technology 'cause I like technology. To this day, I know my phone number and my sister's phone number, and I can't remember anybody's phone number because my brain was like, "You don't need it. I'm gonna turn that function off." Or the calculator, we just stopped being good at math, right? Like, I think most of us are okay letting go of some of our talents and gifts and, and outsourcing it to technology. The question I'm asking is what facilities, what faculties are we gonna lose because we're outsourcing to the AI? And my fear is that it's not just our memories, maybe that's acceptable, but rather there's gonna be a decline in, in, in human skills and other really important things like ability to cope with stress and other things because we outsourced it to the machine. That's what I'm asking, which is what faculties are we gonna lose because of the technology?

10. 23:54 – 34:15

    AI-driven examination, zero-cost testing, and the end of easy credential games

    1. RHReid Hoffman23:54

       Well, the faculties are definitely gonna change, but let me give you an example that I've been telling a bunch of the, you know, educators, university people, because it's a very common thing to say, "Hey, I'm gonna, I'm gonna..." You know, we're, we're, we're, we're at the day of the, you know, the GPD 5 launch. "I'm not gonna write an essay. I'm just gonna have GPD 5 write the essay, and I'm gonna submit it, and I'm not gonna have to think or suffer or, you know, stare at a blank page in order to do that."

    2. SSSimon Sinek24:16

       Right.

    3. RHReid Hoffman24:18

       Actually, in fact, I actually think the, the, the-- our capabilities for training human beings is gonna go way up, because what's gonna happen is examination is all gonna happen by AI, and the examination will be like oral exams for PhDs, right? Like, like we all learn going through college, you know, to say, "Hey, I can predict the three to five questions that are likely to be on the exam. I'll prepare for those. I prepare just enough to be able to answer those within a three-hour period and get a good grade," and da, da, da, and that's my competence level.

    4. SSSimon Sinek24:50

       Right.

    5. RHReid Hoffman24:50

       Now, what we're gonna have in small N years, this might be three, right?

    6. SSSimon Sinek24:57

       Yeah.

    7. RHReid Hoffman24:57

       Two. Um, could be five, where literally the cost of examination is zero, and literally you can start taking the examination whenever you want. You could take it on day two of the class and take it on day 17 as well, and 23, and however you learn. And part of the reason why we reserve oral exams for PhDs is because it's the one that you have to... If you're really gonna do it, you have to prep the whole area.

    8. SSSimon Sinek25:22

       Yeah.

    9. RHReid Hoffman25:22

       Like you have to be A to Z on it. [clears throat] And so what I think is actually gonna happen is we're gonna be able to calibrate what we've said as a human society-

    10. SSSimon Sinek25:32

        Yeah

    11. RHReid Hoffman25:33

        ... for which skills do we want, how do we want those examined, and how are people prepared? So I actually am not a idiocracy believer here.

    12. SSSimon Sinek25:42

        Yeah.

    13. RHReid Hoffman25:42

        I'm a, um, I'm a, "No, no, this is our question of our choice about how we set this up," and actually, in fact, it's gonna get a lot more rigorous.

    14. SSSimon Sinek25:52

        I think you make, I think you make a very good point with regards to school.

    15. RHReid Hoffman25:55

        Yep.

    16. SSSimon Sinek25:57

        But let's now leave school, and the AI is writing the press release for me, it's writing the blog entry for me, it's writing my article for the newspaper, it's writing my book for me. You know, and very competently, I might add. When I was in school, I had to do the studying to demonstrate to the test that I knew it. But in the-- in-- once I go get a job, the-- I'm not getting tested anymore. They only want me to do a good thing, like write, write a piece, and that's it. That's my job, to keep writing press releases or whatever. Um, so where is the learning? Where is the struggle? Where is the, the ability to, to hone your craft if you're actually never doing your craft?

    17. RHReid Hoffman26:40

        Well, what I think, as opposed to the, like, like if you, you compare person A and person B competing, and today's environment is, you know, person A and person B sit down with a blank page and have to craft what looks like a press release.

    18. SSSimon Sinek26:55

        Right.

    19. RHReid Hoffman26:55

        You know, a press statement, and you do it from scratch, is like that's no longer the-

    20. SSSimon Sinek26:58

        Correct

    21. RHReid Hoffman26:58

        ... that's no longer the-

    22. SSSimon Sinek26:59

        That's no longer a thing

    23. RHReid Hoffman27:00

        ... the thing. Um, but then the question is, well, what does it look like? 'Cause person A and person B are still gonna be competing, you know-

    24. SSSimon Sinek27:08

        Yeah

    25. RHReid Hoffman27:08

        ... c- in our universe, and maybe it's the which way do they prompt the AI better, recognize the strategic game of the, of the, of the nature, do things that are, um, better evocations for, you know, the competitive game of, of press releases.

    26. SSSimon Sinek27:25

        But the c- but the c- I don't know if the construction is a fair construction, right? Because I ag- school, it was me versus test.

    27. RHReid Hoffman27:31

        Yes.

    28. SSSimon Sinek27:33

        You're talking about, uh, not-- We're not always in competition. You know, we're in competition sometimes for promotion. We're in competition sometimes for the job. But sometimes I'm the guy. I'm the guy doing the thing. I'm, I'm, I'm the guy. There's no competition. So what do you do when there's no-

    29. RHReid Hoffman27:50

        But actually, in fact-

    30. SSSimon Sinek27:51

        ... 'cause the competition is in sense a, a, a, a, a, a test, a measurement.
11. 34:15 – 35:27

    Real stakes for optimism: AI as medical assistant and accelerating cancer cures

    1. RHReid Hoffman34:15

       Like, don't do that. And like, for example, if someone said, "Hey, I'm gonna take the AI system today, and I'm gonna run the, like the, the, the nuclear defense system-

    2. SSSimon Sinek34:24

       Yeah

    3. RHReid Hoffman34:24

       ... with it." You're like-

    4. SSSimon Sinek34:26

       Yeah, don't do that

    5. RHReid Hoffman34:26

       ... "Yes, there have been bad movies about that. You know, 'Terminator,' 'War Games.' Don't do that." [laughs] Right?

    6. SSSimon Sinek34:33

       Yeah.

    7. RHReid Hoffman34:33

       But that doesn't mean don't build AI. That doesn't mean, you know, like, you know, for example, like Siddhartha Mukherjee and I are doing is, like, how can we accelerate the cure of cancer? And oh, this reminded me of the, the note that I wanted to say earlier, just so people hear it. My optimism is not just a blind faith or a reasoned faith in the future. We have a line of sight to creating a medical assistant that's as good or better than current GPs, available to everyone who can access a smartphone on the planet-

    8. SSSimon Sinek35:03

       Yeah

    9. RHReid Hoffman35:03

       ... that runs for less than $5 an hour.

    10. SSSimon Sinek35:06

        Yeah.

    11. RHReid Hoffman35:07

        The quality of human life elevation for that is immeasurable. It is so-

    12. SSSimon Sinek35:13

        Yeah

    13. RHReid Hoffman35:13

        ... large that it just, it's, it's life-changing. So there are there prizes that are-

    14. SSSimon Sinek35:18

        Yeah

    15. RHReid Hoffman35:18

        ... worth paying, playing for here that are-

    16. SSSimon Sinek35:21

        Yeah

    17. RHReid Hoffman35:21

        ... actually really important, and they're not just, like, abstractions about, like, "Oh, good, we'll, we'll be able to code a lot better."

12. 35:27 – 39:17

    Why optimism got harder: awe, agency, and suspicion of technologists

    1. SSSimon Sinek35:27

       Okay, this is the perfect segue to go back to the second rabbit hole that I was gonna go down about the changing nature of science fiction-

    2. RHReid Hoffman35:34

       Mm-hmm

    3. SSSimon Sinek35:34

       ... as you, as you articulated, which it was very, very optimistic, and it became dystopian at some point. Uh, w- why was science fiction so optimistic for so many years? And where are we getting the optimistic views of the future now, if not from science fiction?

    4. RHReid Hoffman35:56

       I think it was optimistic because people allowed themselves to simply be amazed by what technology can create. And I, I actually do think that some remembrance of that simple amazement is a very good thing. I mean, like, for example, one of the things that I say about, you know, ChatGPT and Copilot and Gemini and Claude is-If you're encountering any serious decision in your life, you should always consult for a second opinion. It's a little different about a first opinion, you'd be a little bit more careful. But I've literally had, like a friend of mine was at a hospital with his cousin where he was uncertain about what that, that hospital was telling the cousin. Consulted GPT-4, and GPT-4 said, "Go to another hospital." Got to the other hospital, and the people at that hospital said, "It's a good thing you're here 'cause two hours later you'd be dead." Right? And, and fixed it. 'Cause the first hospital's like, "Ah, take some antibiotics, you're fine." And it's like, um, and that second opinion is a hugely valuable thing. Um, and so I, I think that's where we kind of are already, and that, that's the simple amazement. The, oh my gosh, the, these really amazing things can happen. And by the way, how do we evolve as human beings? We're Homo techni more than Homo sapiens.

    5. SSSimon Sinek37:16

       Yeah.

    6. RHReid Hoffman37:16

       We evolve through technology. Not just things like this podcast or the glasses that you and I are wearing or [chuckles] you know, these kind of things, but, you know, the books and all the rest. There's all kind of evolution through technology. So that's what I think is a thing that we kind of shifted off of. Now, in terms of the optimism today, I think that it's, um, much harder because it's a little har- like it's a little harder to, to state that simple optimism without getting a lot of critique. And like people say, "Well, it's very nice and good for you to say as a technologist inventing this that it's gonna change the world. What about all the people who aren't inventing the technology and just have to kind of go along with it?" And you go, "Well, whether or not I do it or not, the technology [chuckles] is gonna change and it's gonna go through it, so I'm in it 'cause I'm trying to shape it in a way that would be best for them and best for kind of our children and grandchildren, future generations and future societies, and all the rest." But, um, I do understand that kind of agency question, part of the reason why I called it superagency. But so it means that, that, like for example, I, I get tons and tons of, of, of critique that I'm not a call it an intellectually honest optimist, which by the way I am, but like I'm a commercial, I'm an investor, you know, I'm a, I'm a technologist, et cetera. Because it, that's the kind of critique you run into. And so I don't really know where the sources of optimism come, and that's part of the reason. Like, you know, in my normal life right now, I would be more focused on like building the cancer drug cures than writing the book "Superagency," but I think that voice needs to be heard. I would be completely delighted when it's other people. And I do track the other, you know-

    7. SSSimon Sinek39:09

       Yeah

    8. RHReid Hoffman39:09

       ... the other, you know, kind of really great leading AI voices like Ethan Mollick and other people and try to support them and help them in terms of what they're doing 'cause it's, it's, it's really important.

13. 39:17 – 44:32

    Simon’s Cold War theory: losing shared ideology turned sci‑fi inward and dystopian

    1. SSSimon Sinek39:17

       Like can I share a theory-

    2. RHReid Hoffman39:19

       Yeah

    3. SSSimon Sinek39:19

       ... as to why I think we had more optimism in our science fiction then and-

    4. RHReid Hoffman39:23

       Mm. Please

    5. SSSimon Sinek39:23

       ... and what, what happened to it? I think it's, I think it's the Cold War. [clears throat]

    6. RHReid Hoffman39:27

       Hmm.

    7. SSSimon Sinek39:28

       I think because one of the, you know, great, great competitions exist on three tensions I'll call them I guess.

    8. RHReid Hoffman39:35

       Hmm.

    9. SSSimon Sinek39:36

       There's an existential tension, life or death.

    10. RHReid Hoffman39:38

        Hmm. Hmm.

    11. SSSimon Sinek39:39

        There's an economic tension. Are we gonna make money and be able to provide for ourselves, our economy, our families? And the third one is the philosophical one, that we have a philosophy, a, a, an ideology that we believe in and it, and we belong to this ideology and it gives us a sense of camaraderie and, and patriotism. But it also, it also connects us, right?

    12. RHReid Hoffman40:00

        Hmm.

    13. SSSimon Sinek40:00

        And I would argue that our, our science fiction in part was a reflection of, uh, our ideology that was competing against, at the time, Soviet-style communism.

    14. RHReid Hoffman40:14

        Hmm.

    15. SSSimon Sinek40:14

        And so if you look at all our utopian versus dystopian science fiction, it was we all get along, we live in peace, there's prosperity, like we're accepting, we're including of people who, who are alien to us literally in, in many cases. And there were conflicts along the way, but we wanna include everybody else. And this was an e- it was an exaggerated and tangible depiction of our values to remind us what we stand for as we stand in great competition against the thing that would challenge that idealism and, or that ideology.

    16. RHReid Hoffman40:51

        Hmm.

    17. SSSimon Sinek40:51

        And idealism is the reflection of the ideology.

    18. RHReid Hoffman40:53

        Mm-hmm.

    19. SSSimon Sinek40:54

        And then with the collapse of the Soviet Union, we still had the economic competition versus everybody else.

    20. RHReid Hoffman40:59

        Hmm.

    21. SSSimon Sinek40:59

        We still have the existential competition. We still would like to live in peace, and we, we, we still have enemies.

    22. RHReid Hoffman41:05

        Hmm.

    23. SSSimon Sinek41:05

        But I would argue that the ideological, uh, uh, thing kind of just went away.

    24. RHReid Hoffman41:10

        Mm-hmm.

    25. SSSimon Sinek41:10

        And I think, um, America in particular kind of forgot what it stood for because there was nothing challenging it.

    26. RHReid Hoffman41:16

        Hmm.

    27. SSSimon Sinek41:17

        There was nothing standing in op- in opposition. And so I think our science fiction became dystopian because now it was us versus ourselves. It was no longer us versus somebody else.

    28. RHReid Hoffman41:26

        Hmm.

    29. SSSimon Sinek41:26

        And if you look at where we've ended up, it is largely us versus ourselves right now.

    30. RHReid Hoffman41:32

        Mm-hmm.
14. 44:32 – 49:19

    Leadership as moral obligation: preach the future worth building (and LinkedIn’s ‘enemy’)

    1. RHReid Hoffman44:32

       Well, well I think that's a moral requirement of good leadership. It's part of the reason why I talk to the various, you know, very smart, very well-meaning critics, and we also say, "And here is the positive version, the elevation-

    2. SSSimon Sinek44:47

       Yeah

    3. RHReid Hoffman44:47

       ... of humanity." And then by the way-

    4. SSSimon Sinek44:48

       Yeah

    5. RHReid Hoffman44:48

       ... one of the subtle things of it is we would like to, in human condition, I think diminish how much is our condition is beating up the evil people. It's like, no-

    6. SSSimon Sinek44:58

       Right

    7. RHReid Hoffman44:58

       ... how do we, how do we elevate? Like if like, to some degree, if you're a good person, it's, it's how do we elevate people versus how do... Like, like, like it's just the ordering one or two. How do we elevate people? How do we prevent the bad people?

    8. SSSimon Sinek45:13

       Yeah.

    9. RHReid Hoffman45:14

       If you're a good person, that's the order. If you're a bad person-

    10. SSSimon Sinek45:16

        Yeah

    11. RHReid Hoffman45:16

        ... in part, it's the other order.

    12. SSSimon Sinek45:18

        Yeah.

    13. RHReid Hoffman45:19

        Right? It's the-

    14. SSSimon Sinek45:19

        You still, you still need to be able to know what you... I think idealism is ethereal.

    15. RHReid Hoffman45:24

        Yeah.

    16. SSSimon Sinek45:24

        It's hard to see. It's hard to imagine. An enemy is tangible, and it's much easier to know what you stand for if you can see what you stand against.

    17. RHReid Hoffman45:31

        Yes.

    18. SSSimon Sinek45:32

        And even, you know, Jobs back in the day, and I'm curious what you did at LinkedIn, but you know, Jobs, he still had Big Blue, and he still had, you know, Microsoft.

    19. RHReid Hoffman45:40

        Yeah.

    20. SSSimon Sinek45:40

        And he, he still articulated an enemy that was standing in a, in the way of, of, of his idealism, but the idealism came first.

    21. RHReid Hoffman45:49

        Yes. And-

    22. SSSimon Sinek45:50

        So I'm curious what was, you know, when, when, when, as, as you were building LinkedIn, like who, who was, who was standing in the way? What was the grand enemy standing in the way of the idealism that you promoted?

    23. RHReid Hoffman46:02

        Well, it probably were two things. Um, one was kind of a social norm that was bad for society and bad for individuals, which was, um, no one should have a CV online, posted online, public posted online. This is like, it was like, "No, no, you're, you're disloyal to your organization, and so therefore-

    24. SSSimon Sinek46:25

        Yeah

    25. RHReid Hoffman46:25

        ... you know, you shouldn't do that." And I was like, "No, actually, in fact, that's better for the individual's opportunity. That's better for society, maximizing the opportunity of individuals and the creation of, of their best work." And it's a little bit more challenging for organizations because you can't just hold onto your people 'cause no one knows who they are. That was part of-

    26. SSSimon Sinek46:43

        Right

    27. RHReid Hoffman46:43

        ... the reason why they wanted that, you know, that, that, that myth of if your CV is online, maybe you don't get the promotion or bonus or, you know, maybe we fire you, et cetera.

    28. SSSimon Sinek46:54

        Right.

    29. RHReid Hoffman46:54

        I mean, literally very early days of LinkedIn, it was like, "Oh, shit, I wanna be on LinkedIn 'cause maybe I'll get fired for being on LinkedIn." It was like... And you know, um, various, some companies like tried to ban people from being on LinkedIn all this. So there's that, and then there's the old industry. Um, you know, the various, you know, like, um, monster.com and everything else for kinda-

    30. SSSimon Sinek47:13

        Yeah
15. 49:19 – 1:06:31

    Identity after wealth: investor vs philanthropist, status incentives, and Reid’s ‘gift’ philosophy

    1. SSSimon Sinek49:19

       Can I ask you a question that I don't understand?

    2. RHReid Hoffman49:22

       Hmm.

    3. SSSimon Sinek49:22

       I mean, I kind of have a theory, but let-- I'm gonna ask it anyway. Why is it, and maybe, maybe this is not true, but I think it's true.

    4. RHReid Hoffman49:30

       Hmm.

    5. SSSimon Sinek49:30

       Uh, when a male entrepreneur has some sort of liquidity event, company goes public, he sells the company, whatever, and comes into generational wealth, if you ask them, "What do you do now?" They say, "I'm an investor."

    6. RHReid Hoffman49:47

       Hmm.

    7. SSSimon Sinek49:48

       Right? And so now I know they give to philanthropy. I know they do philanthropic works, but they define themselves as investors, which I find funny because you've just made more money than you'll need ever, and you now your goal is to make more money.

    8. RHReid Hoffman50:01

       Hmm.

    9. SSSimon Sinek50:01

       And like, "Oh, you've got a fund now. Oh, wonderful." Uh, whereas when you talk to female, uh, females who have some sort of liquidity event-

    10. RHReid Hoffman50:09

        Hmm

    11. SSSimon Sinek50:09

        ... where they have now generational wealth, and you ask them, "What do you do?" They say, "I'm a philanthropist."

    12. RHReid Hoffman50:14

        Hmm.

    13. SSSimon Sinek50:14

        And of course, they do investing, but they define themselves first as, as philanthropists. Why can't all people who have a, a, who sell a company or go public and come into more money than they'll ever need-

    14. RHReid Hoffman50:26

        Hmm

    15. SSSimon Sinek50:26

        ... why can't every single one of them define themselves as philanthropists first?

    16. RHReid Hoffman50:31

        Well, they certainly can. It's probably the-

    17. SSSimon Sinek50:34

        Why don't they?

    18. RHReid Hoffman50:34

        Yes. It's probably-

    19. SSSimon Sinek50:35

        Why don't they?

    20. RHReid Hoffman50:36

        Like, I, it's not a pattern that I've, um, observed perhaps as clearly as you. Um, but-

    21. SSSimon Sinek50:45

        I could be wrong.

    22. RHReid Hoffman50:46

        Yeah.

    23. SSSimon Sinek50:47

        It's, it's an initial, it's an initial observation.

    24. RHReid Hoffman50:49

        Yeah. But you know what I... My hypothesis would be in that is that what's the fitness function by which you're awarded status-

    25. SSSimon Sinek51:01

        Yeah

    26. RHReid Hoffman51:01

        ... by people around you, which is part of the kind of competitive game.

    27. SSSimon Sinek51:06

        And, and, and, and men, it's money.

    28. RHReid Hoffman51:08

        Yeah. And, and for women, it's more like, do you care about society and community and so on?

    29. SSSimon Sinek51:12

        You're a good person, right?

    30. RHReid Hoffman51:13

        Yes, you're a good person. So like, like that would be my hypothesis. Um-

Episode duration: 1:06:32