SpaceX's Financials Leaked: Is it Worth $2TN | Meta Debuts Muse Spark: Are They Back in the AI Race?

I don't buy Dario anymore. He may well be the second greatest founder of all time behind Elon, but I am just so burnt out of the Boy Who Cries Wolf

Starting off on the agenda, Anthropic unveils Mythos, but withholds it from public release because it's too good at hacking. Number two, public software stocks tumble to new lows with Citi saying there really is no floor. Optimistic. And then finally, Meta debuts Muse Spark. It's Alex Wang's first model from Meta's Super Intelligence Labs. Does it save Meta in the race to catch up?

So I'm pretty bullish actually on OpenAI and the enterprise.

I think it's a two-way fight. Anthropic has the advantage of clarity and focus. OpenAI has the advantage of the consumer business.

If your agents are only 60% as good, you're in a slow death spiral. It appears to be the most expensive IPO at scale of all time.

The Elon discount rate is zero, and the Elon probability of failure rate is zero to get to $2 trillion.

I can't open the Strait of Hormuz myself. I can't do this. Like enough already. Let me just use my tokens. Ready to go?

[rock music] Guys, I am so excited for this show. Uh, as we always, uh, have, we're gonna start with Anthropic. What else could we start with but Anthropic unveiling Mythos with the preview withheld from public release because it is too good at hacking. Discovered thousands of zero day vulnerabilities. Admittedly, some were quite old. Um, how did we think about this? Did it deserve the reaction that it got?

Which reaction are you talking about, Howie?

I would say widespread fear that, that was then shown in a loss of market cap of a lot of public companies in the US.

Let's leave to one side the was it a marketing stunt or did they have not have compute? Let's focus on what Mythos does in terms of cybersecurity and what your correct response to that would be. And, you know, if you read a lot of the stuff, it, it finds a whole ton of vulnerabilities, including some that have been literally there for years, right? So that's kind of the, oh my God, that's scary. And then you see... A-a-and that's why they withheld it and shared it with a bunch of security vendors, right? And then you see a bunch of kind of counterarguments that basically some version of this, which is using older models and using them well, you can actually get to the same outcome, right? You can find the same security vulnerabilities, right? And that's the counterargu- And there was a whole bunch of Twitters that said, "Eh, this is not a big deal." And, you know, I'm processing through from the outside and, and, and my conclusion is those people who said it's not a big deal are wrong, and Anthropic is right. And I was thinking about the metaphor here today, right? Because what they were saying is... And it's actually very interesting about the whole agentic revolution. It's kind of a microcosm that allows us to talk about a lot of things. It's like, basically, they are right, which is... Sorry, the, the, the naysayers are right, which is that you can take an older model, you can point it at some of these issues, you can kind of query, you can direct it a couple of times. And someone actually did the exercise of here's how I found the same bugs. I had to steer the model a little bit, and you got it, right? Um, but the comment is, Mythos just kicked off on its own, agentically, goes and looks at all the code and finds them on its own, right? And the metaphor I was trying to look at here is very simple. It's like, it's the difference between a rifle and a machine gun. In one sense, both of them can kill someone, right? But one shoots one bullet and then stop and reload, and the other just spews guns, bullets out. And in the First World War, you know, we all tragically learned that machine guns are... It might be the same thing, but quantity makes a huge difference. And I think that's what's really going on here. The speed at which this can process reason across large code bases means that they're just gonna find more bullets. They're gonna shoot more bullets. So it's not... So the kind of the, the Twitter cynical, it's not that different isn't true because it's the, it's the capabilities to do so much so quickly with such human direction that makes it definitely a quantum step difference in terms of real capability. My big aha was it's, it's, it's not overblown in the sense it can find stuff.