Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017

Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017

The Twenty Minute VCMay 22, 20231h 29m

Nico Wittenborn (guest), Harry Stebbings (host)

Application of the “adjacent possible” concept to tech investingEconomics and dynamics of consumer subscription apps vs. SaaSCustomer acquisition, churn, and paywall optimization in mobileAdjacent’s fund strategy, portfolio construction, and seed/A focusThe rise, benefits, and limits of the solo GP modelVenture market structure, mega-funds, and future exit pathsPersonal drivers: upbringing, family, and long-term orientation

In this episode of The Twenty Minute VC, featuring Nico Wittenborn and Harry Stebbings, Nico Wittenborn: Consumer Subscription Apps; Using Evolutionary Biology to Invest; Solo GP's | E1017 explores nico Wittenborn Bets Big On Consumer Subscriptions And Solo GP Model Nico Wittenborn, founder of Adjacent, explains how he applies an “adjacent possible” evolutionary biology lens to identify emerging markets and category-creating consumer subscription apps. Drawing on experience at Point Nine and Insight, he argues that mobile consumer subscription businesses are still early, with Calm, Duolingo and others only now reaching maturity since App Store subscriptions began in 2011. He defends the model versus SaaS by highlighting cash efficiency, high margins, and cohort behavior, while acknowledging higher first-year churn and channel volatility. Nico also dives into his solo GP fund construction, views on pricing and ownership, the future of venture, and how family, identity, and values shape his investing choices.

Nico Wittenborn Bets Big On Consumer Subscriptions And Solo GP Model

Nico Wittenborn, founder of Adjacent, explains how he applies an “adjacent possible” evolutionary biology lens to identify emerging markets and category-creating consumer subscription apps. Drawing on experience at Point Nine and Insight, he argues that mobile consumer subscription businesses are still early, with Calm, Duolingo and others only now reaching maturity since App Store subscriptions began in 2011. He defends the model versus SaaS by highlighting cash efficiency, high margins, and cohort behavior, while acknowledging higher first-year churn and channel volatility. Nico also dives into his solo GP fund construction, views on pricing and ownership, the future of venture, and how family, identity, and values shape his investing choices.

Key Takeaways

Use the “adjacent possible” to spot where new categories can emerge.

Nico looks for technological, behavioral, or social shifts that logically enable the “next step” in evolution (e. ...

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Consumer subscription apps can be strong businesses despite high initial churn.

He expects ~50% or more churn in year one, but sees cohorts flattening afterwards to resemble SMB SaaS; if CAC is paid back in year one and the market is large, the stacking of retained cohorts can produce durable, high-margin revenue.

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Design acquisition so CAC is repaid in the first year, ideally via annual upfront plans.

Adjacent companies target recovering CAC from the initial annual subscription payment; this reduces risk from higher churn and makes these businesses surprisingly cash-efficient compared to enterprise SaaS with large salesforces.

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Optimize paywalls aggressively but thoughtfully, using frequency and trials.

Data from infrastructure tools (e. ...

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Diversify acquisition channels early to avoid platform risk.

Nico sees overreliance on a single channel like Facebook/Instagram as a major existential risk; founders should exploit what works but deliberately invest in additional channels and organic loops before it’s too late to transition.

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Seed is the best fit for his model: modest exits can still return the fund.

With a small fund, 20–25 positions, and ~10–11% ownership targets, a $1–3B outcome can return Adjacent one or multiple times; he prefers seed and some Series A, and is cautious about over-raising or chasing valuations that assume $10B+ outcomes.

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Solo GPs can excel by being thesis-driven and deeply aligned with founders.

Nico believes early-stage investing benefits from non-consensus, strongly held theses and fast, single-decision-maker processes; he avoids high-volume deal flow, focuses on fit with a specific type of founder, and is open but not rushed about adding partners.

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Notable Quotes

“I consciously chose an area to focus on that I believed in strongly… If in five years there’s not more companies that we can point to, probably I was not as right as I think I am.”

Nico Wittenborn

“Once somebody is a habitual user of the product, typically they just don’t decide to rip it out of their life.”

Nico Wittenborn

“You write an app, you put it on the App Store, it’s in 200 countries, you charge annual upfront, and with a seed round you get to tens of millions in revenue. That’s crazy.”

Nico Wittenborn

“For me, true venture is thesis-driven and early-stage.”

Nico Wittenborn

“Kids are a very smart invention by nature, a forcing function to make us think long term.”

Nico Wittenborn

Questions Answered in This Episode

How can founders practically apply the “adjacent possible” idea when deciding which product to build next?

Nico Wittenborn, founder of Adjacent, explains how he applies an “adjacent possible” evolutionary biology lens to identify emerging markets and category-creating consumer subscription apps. ...

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What specific signals in early cohorts convince Nico that a high-churn consumer subscription app can still become a great business?

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Where is the line between assertive paywall optimization and user-hostile experiences that damage long-term brand trust?

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How should a small consumer subscription startup think about sequencing expansion from mobile prosumer into web, teams, and API offerings?

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Given his skepticism about $10B outcomes, how might Nico’s fund strategy change if the exit environment for consumer apps significantly worsens or improves?

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Transcript Preview

Nico Wittenborn

There's this term in evolutionary biology called the adjacent possible. And what it says is evolution happens usually as a combination of the existing phenomena and in a relatively deterministic way. So like transformers being developed somewhere within Google, somebody taking that, building that up, and creating OpenAI, then that actually becoming consumer subs application that charges 20 bucks a month, (laughs) with ChatGPT, those things altogether create the breakthrough. If you ask somebody on the street, they're like, "Overnight, AI was created, and it's living in this bot," certainly this was not the case. There were very specific steps leading to this outcome that is now perceived as happening overnight. And this can be technically like the example I just brought, but it could also be behaviorally or, um, socially, like Calm for meditation. Meditation was not as mainstream as it was when we invested, right? And so I- I try to identify these changes and then think about which companies could create a category around that.

Harry Stebbings

Niko, I am so excited for this. It was 2015 when we last sat down together.

Nico Wittenborn

Yes.

Harry Stebbings

I cannot believe it's been eight years. But thank you so much for joining me today.

Nico Wittenborn

Thanks for having me again.

Harry Stebbings

Now, this will be one of the best shows we've done because we're just gonna shoot the shit. We're gonna start as usual. I want to know how did you get into venture first and just set the stage there.

Nico Wittenborn

Yeah. Um, so I started my journey in high school, not in investing, but in the first step towards, um, investing, which was I imported iPhones from the UK, unlocked them, refurbished them, resold them, which then really opened my eyes to entrepreneurship, one, and two, some of the money I made there (laughs) I invested in Apple stock-

Harry Stebbings

(laughs)

Nico Wittenborn

... in 2008 and '09, which, um, I guess taught me two things. One, you can make money online. Two, if you believe in something and you put the money behind it, then that can work out for you. I didn't... You know, it was very little money, and I- I actually took it out pretty soon after for a vacation with a girlfriend-

Harry Stebbings

(laughs)

Nico Wittenborn

... at the time. But it was still, it was still, you know, the learning was there. And so I... At the time that this was happening was at 2008, and when I started studying, I read about a group in Berlin called Team Europe.

Harry Stebbings

Hmm.

Nico Wittenborn

They were a company builder, um, pretty similar to Rocket, smaller. They built Delivery Hero-

Harry Stebbings

Mm-hmm.

Nico Wittenborn

... a couple of other outcomes, and they had a small seed fund on the side with €6 million, and that was managed by Pawel, who was later one of the founders of, um, Point Nine. And so I reached out to them, sent them a cold email, asked if I could do an internship. This is in 2010. And Pawel got back to me and, um, came to visit a town close to where I was studying in Germany, and I had a conversation with him. He liked what I did with the iPhones. I actually just had invested in a company called ƒ4kauf, and that was that model but on a bigger scale, venture-funded. I was just one person. Um, and so I think we hit it off, and he offered me an internship. I worked with him, um, for a couple of months and then continued working for them part-time as I finished my studies in 2011, 2012. And then when I graduated university, they decided to spin out this fund of Team Europe, and Christoph, who was an LP in the fund, joined as a co-founder, (laughs) and they started Point Nine. Um, and I was just, you know, the young kid that was around-

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