
No Priors Ep. 111 | With KoBold Metals Co-Founder and President Josh Goldman
Sarah Guo (host), Josh Goldman (guest), Elad Gil (host)
In this episode of No Priors, featuring Sarah Guo and Josh Goldman, No Priors Ep. 111 | With KoBold Metals Co-Founder and President Josh Goldman explores aI-Powered Mineral Exploration Reshapes Global Supply of Copper and Lithium Josh Goldman, co-founder and president of KoBold Metals, explains how the company uses AI, novel sensors, and massive geoscience datasets to dramatically improve the success rate of mineral exploration. Rather than operating mines, KoBold focuses on the high-upside, high-failure exploration phase, treating discovery as an information and prediction problem. The conversation covers KoBold’s large global portfolio, its world-class Mingomba copper discovery in Zambia, its custom technology stack, and its philosophy-driven approach to uncertainty and scientific method. Goldman also situates these efforts within the macro need to supply metals for batteries, electrification, and AI-driven data center growth.
AI-Powered Mineral Exploration Reshapes Global Supply of Copper and Lithium
Josh Goldman, co-founder and president of KoBold Metals, explains how the company uses AI, novel sensors, and massive geoscience datasets to dramatically improve the success rate of mineral exploration. Rather than operating mines, KoBold focuses on the high-upside, high-failure exploration phase, treating discovery as an information and prediction problem. The conversation covers KoBold’s large global portfolio, its world-class Mingomba copper discovery in Zambia, its custom technology stack, and its philosophy-driven approach to uncertainty and scientific method. Goldman also situates these efforts within the macro need to supply metals for batteries, electrification, and AI-driven data center growth.
Key Takeaways
Treat mineral exploration as an information problem, not a resource problem.
The Earth has abundant lithium and copper; the real scarcity is reliable information about where economically viable, highly concentrated deposits are located. ...
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Focus on exploration can yield outsized returns compared to mining operations.
With a few million dollars, a successful discovery can create 100–1000x returns, whereas operational mining is more commoditized. ...
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Combine diverse, messy datasets to gain predictive power, rather than betting on a single “silver bullet” technology.
KoBold integrates satellite imagery, airborne surveys, rock and soil samples, historical maps, regulatory filings, and text reports into a unified data system. ...
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Use fieldwork to actively retrain models by targeting uncertainty, not confirmation.
Geologists are directed to locations where models are least certain, collect new ground-truth data, and feed it back daily. ...
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High-grade deposits drastically improve economics and environmental footprint.
Mingomba’s core is over 5% copper versus the global average of ~0. ...
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Robust epistemology and explicit handling of uncertainty are core to KoBold’s culture.
The company formalized an “Epistemology of Exploration,” requires falsifiable predictions in advance of data collection, and develops tools to quantify uncertainty and test multiple alternative hypotheses. ...
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Future energy and AI infrastructure will require unprecedented metal production.
Goldman estimates that by mid-century, humanity will need to mine more copper in 25 years than in all prior human history, and increase lithium production roughly tenfold, driven by batteries, EVs, drones, and data centers powering AI.
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Notable Quotes
“We talk about exploration as an information problem because the scarce resource is not lithium or copper metal in the ground. The scarce resource is the information about where the ore deposits are located.”
— Josh Goldman
“In a commodity business, everybody sells copper for the same price. Our ability to make money depends on what our margin is, which means we need to be a low-cost producer.”
— Josh Goldman
“There is no way to isolate the AI from the HI. There is no way to isolate one piece of data that's uniquely powerful.”
— Josh Goldman
“Cobalt is kind of an epistemic project really. Our business is about making better predictions.”
— Josh Goldman
“To build a future that is powered by batteries and AI, by mid-century we will need to mine, over the next 25 years, more copper than has been mined so far in all of human history.”
— Josh Goldman
Questions Answered in This Episode
How might KoBold’s approach to uncertainty and multiple hypotheses be applied in other industries that rely on sparse, noisy data?
Josh Goldman, co-founder and president of KoBold Metals, explains how the company uses AI, novel sensors, and massive geoscience datasets to dramatically improve the success rate of mineral exploration. ...
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What are the biggest bottlenecks in scaling high-quality exploration for lithium, given how recently it became a primary target commodity?
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How does KoBold balance the drive for discovery with community concerns and local environmental impacts in places like Zambia or the Congo?
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Could KoBold’s full-stack model—custom sensors, proprietary data infrastructure, and AI—create defensible advantages against major incumbent mining companies if they try to copy it?
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What happens to KoBold’s strategy if long-term demand for EVs, batteries, or AI data centers underperforms current expectations?
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Transcript Preview
(instrumental music plays) Hi, listeners, and welcome back to No Priors. Today, we're speaking with Josh Goldman, co-founder of Cobalt Metals. Cobalt is building the world's largest collection of geoscience data, and using their AI tools to better identify mineral deposits like lithium and copper to be a better explorer. Cobalt invests over $100 million annually across 70 projects on four continents today. Josh, welcome to No Priors.
It's a pleasure. Thanks so much for having me.
This is a super interesting real-world business. You run a intelligent mining company. What does that mean? What does Cobalt do?
We explore for minerals. We're looking for lithium and copper and the other metals that we need to build other businesses that are powered by batteries and AI, uh, and we develop AI technologies and we combine AI with human intelligence to be better explorers and more successful at finding the sources of minerals that we need for these businesses.
Are you both finding them as well as actually gonna do the mining? Or is it only a, a tool to find these sorts of assets or resources?
That's a central question. So we, the... Our business is focused on exploration, and it's focused on exploration for a couple of reasons. One is because there's way more value to be created there. And the second is that's where technology can be really differentiating. The economics of exploration are really quite extraordinary. Uh, with a few million dollars of capital, you can create 100 to 1,000 times return. Exploration is a very old business. Think about, you know, gold miners back in, in, you know, in the middle of the 19th century. Uh, if you can get the right claims, you can strike it rich if you can dig in the right places. It's about where you look and how effectively you can look. Uh, and so the unit economics of discovery are really extraordinary. The problem with exploration as a business is that the success rate's really low. You have to try many, many different places before you can find something, and the problem keeps getting harder. Uh, but that's also the reason why technology is so differentiating. We're looking for things that are harder and harder to find. It used to be that you could find minerals literally with your eyeballs by walking across the ground and prospecting. And a lot of the copper ore minerals that form at the surface, uh, that are, are modified by the air and the water and the surface environment turn blue and green like the patina on the Statue of Liberty. Though anything you can find by traipsing across the ground with your eyes has been found by now, and we need more intelligent ways of looking for minerals in places that are concealed, that are literally underground and concealed by the rocks. And so technology, uh, is a way to create differentiation to be a much better explorer. Now, once we find things that there's, there's a continuum from you had a good idea and you collected some rock samples, you found something underground, you have many different holes and you've established that you've got something continuous, to, "Oh, it's gonna be economic to mine this," to, "We're designing the mine," to, "We're building the mine." There's a whole spectrum in the technology that we use to find resources and to find those resources helps set a project up to be a more economical mine as well. So we continue to contribute technology and, and stay involved in projects as they evolve.
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