What the Latest Polls Tell Us About the 2024 Race
Kara Swisher (host), Dan Pfeiffer (guest), Scott Galloway (host)
In this episode of Pivot, featuring Kara Swisher and Dan Pfeiffer, What the Latest Polls Tell Us About the 2024 Race explores polls Show Biden Vulnerable As Trump Strengthens, But Voters Fluid Dan Pfeiffer joins Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway to unpack 2024 polling that currently shows Donald Trump with a slight lead over Joe Biden, and Biden’s approval at a low point. He argues the numbers are serious but not destiny, with Trump largely consolidating his 2020 voters while Biden underperforms with his own former supporters and young voters. They discuss why Nikki Haley looks strong in general-election matchups yet remains highly unlikely to win the GOP nomination in a MAGA-dominated party. Pfeiffer outlines strategic imperatives for Democrats: make 2024 a clear choice, not a referendum on Biden; meet voter economic anxieties on prices rather than macro stats; and reframe Trump’s “strongman” appeal around his weaknesses and concrete harms to voters’ lives.
Polls Show Biden Vulnerable As Trump Strengthens, But Voters Fluid
Dan Pfeiffer joins Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway to unpack 2024 polling that currently shows Donald Trump with a slight lead over Joe Biden, and Biden’s approval at a low point. He argues the numbers are serious but not destiny, with Trump largely consolidating his 2020 voters while Biden underperforms with his own former supporters and young voters. They discuss why Nikki Haley looks strong in general-election matchups yet remains highly unlikely to win the GOP nomination in a MAGA-dominated party. Pfeiffer outlines strategic imperatives for Democrats: make 2024 a clear choice, not a referendum on Biden; meet voter economic anxieties on prices rather than macro stats; and reframe Trump’s “strongman” appeal around his weaknesses and concrete harms to voters’ lives.
Key Takeaways
Biden’s main polling problem is soft support among his own 2020 voters.
Trump is retaining about 92% of his 2020 voters while Biden is only holding around 87%, and that small gap appears consistently across polls; re‑mobilizing these prior Biden voters is the most straightforward path to making the race competitive again.
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Nikki Haley is electorally strong in theory but structurally weak in the GOP.
She performs well against Biden in head‑to‑head general-election polling, but only about 28% of Republicans list her as a first or second choice, compared with far higher numbers for Trump and DeSantis, making her a factional, non‑MAGA candidate in a MAGA party.
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Democrats must turn 2024 into a choice, not a referendum on Biden.
Polls show voters are currently thinking far more about Biden than Trump; Democrats need to refocus attention on Trump’s record, temperament, and plans, reminding voters what a second Trump term would actually look like rather than just defending Biden’s record.
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Economic messaging should center prices and wages, not macro indicators.
Voters care less about job numbers or the rate of inflation and more about the concrete price of goods and their cost of living; Democrats should use their policy record as proof they can lower costs and raise wages, especially in contrast to Republicans’ alignment with the wealthy and corporations.
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Talking about Trump as “strong” feeds his brand; emphasize his weakness and self-interest.
Pfeiffer argues Democrats should avoid amplifying Trump’s strongman image and instead portray him as weak, deferential to CEOs and dictators, and primarily motivated by fear of legal consequences, while tying his abuse of power to tangible harms on issues like abortion, workers’ rights, and the environment.
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Bad national polls and good Democratic election results can both be true.
Special and midterm electorates are smaller and more Democratic-leaning than the larger presidential electorate, where Trump currently overperforms among infrequent and 2020 nonvoters, so Democrats winning ballot measures and off-year races doesn’t automatically translate to 2024 safety.
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A Trump conviction before the election could decisively shift a small but crucial slice of voters.
Polling suggests only about 6% of voters would move away from Trump if he were convicted, but in a close race that margin could be enough to tip the election, making his legal outcomes a potentially major late‑stage game changer.
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Notable Quotes
“These are the polls that a Democrat should take seriously but not literally.”
— Dan Pfeiffer
“Nikki Haley is a non‑MAGA candidate in a MAGA party.”
— Dan Pfeiffer
“We have to stop… it doesn’t really matter what the macroeconomic numbers say. It matters how people actually feel.”
— Dan Pfeiffer
“What he is trying to do is to say, ‘I am gonna be an authoritarian, but I’m gonna be an authoritarian for you.’”
— Dan Pfeiffer (on Donald Trump’s ‘dictator on day one’ comment)
“The best thing that could happen for Joe Biden and democracy would be Donald Trump being convicted in the January 6th trial.”
— Dan Pfeiffer
Questions Answered in This Episode
If Biden’s central task is winning back his 2020 voters, what specific messages or policies are most likely to re-engage those disaffected supporters?
Dan Pfeiffer joins Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway to unpack 2024 polling that currently shows Donald Trump with a slight lead over Joe Biden, and Biden’s approval at a low point. ...
Get the full analysis with uListen AI
Given Haley’s strong general-election numbers but weak primary base, is there any plausible scenario or shock that could realign the GOP away from Trump and DeSantis?
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How can Democrats make the threat of Trump’s authoritarianism feel personally relevant to swing voters without inadvertently reinforcing his ‘strongman’ appeal?
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What concrete adjustments in economic policy or communication could most effectively convince skeptical voters that Democrats are reducing everyday costs, not just reporting good statistics?
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How might a Trump conviction or major development in the Gaza conflict interact with youth disillusionment and third-party candidacies to reshape the 2024 electoral map?
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Transcript Preview
Dan Pfeiffer is the co-host of Crooked Media's pod Save America. He's also the host of a new podcast, Poller Coaster, ha ha-
(laughs)
... which is launching this week and will feature analysis on the latest polls and voter trends. Welcome, Dan.
Thanks for having me.
So, since you're the expert here, let's start with some polling. Over the weekend-
(laughs)
... the Wall Street Journal released a new poll with voters giving Biden the lowest job approval of his presidency at 37%. In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Trump beats Biden 47 to 43%. Now, I, we know it is early. Um, uh, the poll also shows, uh, Trump continued to dominate the Republican field, with nearly 60% supporting him. That's not new. Uh, but Nikki Haley has numbers that are s- a stronger general election candidate, beating Biden by 17 points. Uh, so t- talk to us about this latest one 'cause there's been a slew like this. It's-
Right.
... early, again. Go ahead.
It, it, it is early, and there's been a, uh, consistent set of, you know, these numbers were all kind of in the neighborhood. S- slight Trump-
Mm-hmm.
... lead, Biden under 40 approval rating, Trump advantages on the economy, immigration-
Hm.
... crime, Israel/Gaza, with Biden holding an abortion on, holding an advantage on, generally, abortion and democracy and, you know, the civility, those sorts of issues. And I think it is, like, these are the polls that a Democrat should take seriously but not literally, right? That-
Mm-hmm.
... w- there is no question that if the, that Democra- that Joe Biden is in, if the election were held today, Joe Biden would be in trouble, and you can, and would lose. But if you-
Mm-hmm.
... there's a very simple, I think, explanation, like, in pure math as to why Trump is winning and Biden is not, is that in the, like, the Wall Street Journal poll is that Trump is getting 92% of his 2020 voters, and Biden's getting 87%. And that five per, and that is consistent across all of the polls. And-
Mm-hmm.
... if, and it's, that is both, that is alarming, but that, if you're loo-, if you're the Biden team and you're looking for a silver lining, those are the easiest voters to get back, are the ones who've already cast the ballot for you. And that's-
Mm-hmm.
... gotta be what the focus is heading into next year, is beginning to rebuild that coalition. If you do that, then we are headed for a v- once again, a very, very close election, but one that is very winnable for Joe Biden.
Okay. So, we keep hearing also about Nikki Haley momentum, but realistically, is there any scenario where she gets the nomination?
(clicks tongue) I would say no. I think that, if you look, N- Nikki Haley is a non-MAGA candidate in a MAGA party. Uh, there is a, a whole bunch of polling shows that f- Ron DeSantis is actually a much more likely Republican nominee than Trump. In, in-
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