
2024 Predictions on Tech, Business, and the Election
Kara Swisher (host), Scott Galloway (host)
In this episode of Pivot, featuring Kara Swisher and Scott Galloway, 2024 Predictions on Tech, Business, and the Election explores 2024 Forecast: Geopolitics, AI Disinformation, Housing Fallout, and Biden’s Fate Scott Galloway and Kara Swisher trade rapid-fire predictions for 2024 across geopolitics, the global economy, technology, and U.S. politics. Galloway forecasts Saudi–Israel normalization, a U.S.–China thaw that acts as a massive “tax cut,” an AI-driven disinformation wave, and a boom in travel driven by a pessimistic generation abandoning homeownership. Swisher predicts Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump, that Trump is likely to face jail time, and that the DOJ will prevail in its antitrust case against Google. They close by debating public sentiment, polling reliability, the impact of third-party candidates, and the potential financial upside of a Google breakup.
2024 Forecast: Geopolitics, AI Disinformation, Housing Fallout, and Biden’s Fate
Scott Galloway and Kara Swisher trade rapid-fire predictions for 2024 across geopolitics, the global economy, technology, and U.S. politics. Galloway forecasts Saudi–Israel normalization, a U.S.–China thaw that acts as a massive “tax cut,” an AI-driven disinformation wave, and a boom in travel driven by a pessimistic generation abandoning homeownership. Swisher predicts Joe Biden will defeat Donald Trump, that Trump is likely to face jail time, and that the DOJ will prevail in its antitrust case against Google. They close by debating public sentiment, polling reliability, the impact of third-party candidates, and the potential financial upside of a Google breakup.
Key Takeaways
Saudi–Israel normalization could anchor regional peace through economic incentives.
Galloway argues that formal ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel in 2024 would create strong financial motives on both sides to maintain relative peace and stability, even though current leadership makes it difficult.
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A U.S.–China thaw may function as a de facto global tax cut.
He predicts renewed cooperation between the two largest economies will lower prices by marrying U. ...
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AI will supercharge disinformation early in the 2024 election cycle.
Galloway foresees a “massive amount” of AI-generated disinformation in Q1 and Q2, intensifying voter confusion and manipulation during a pivotal political year.
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Young adults may redirect failed homeownership dreams into travel spending.
With home prices and interest rates making ownership feel unattainable, he expects 20-somethings to spend their would-be down-payment savings on travel, boosting companies like Airbnb and Expedia.
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Biden is likely to win in 2024 as voters reject Trump fatigue.
Swisher believes that as Trump becomes more visible, voters will associate him with past chaos, overlook some of Biden’s weaknesses, and “bite the bullet” to stick with the incumbent.
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Trump faces real legal jeopardy and could go to jail if convicted pre-election.
Swisher says most lawyers she speaks with see conviction as likely; if it happens before the election, it creates a constitutional and political crisis, while a post-election conviction could be blunted by self-pardons.
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A DOJ win against Google could paradoxically enrich shareholders.
Both suggest that if antitrust remedies force a breakup, standalone units like YouTube and an AI/cloud arm could be valued higher in sum than Google is today, leading the stock to outperform other Big Tech names.
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Notable Quotes
“The American dream is now a hallucination for most people when it comes to home ownership.”
— Scott Galloway
“The fastest way out of inflation and to renew economic growth across the largest and second-largest economies in the world are for the two to kiss and make up.”
— Scott Galloway (on U.S.–China relations)
“I don't think Donald Trump is gonna be the President of the United States. I think Joe Biden's gonna win, and I'm gonna say that now.”
— Kara Swisher
“I think people want to move on. And there should be... the only caveat is this, is these third-party things, and we'll see.”
— Kara Swisher
“If the remedy looks like it's gonna be a breakup... Google stock will outperform every other big tech stock in 2024.”
— Scott Galloway
Questions Answered in This Episode
If Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations, what practical economic projects or alliances would most effectively lock in peace incentives?
Scott Galloway and Kara Swisher trade rapid-fire predictions for 2024 across geopolitics, the global economy, technology, and U. ...
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How should policymakers balance national security concerns with the economic benefits of a U.S.–China ‘bear hug’ in 2024?
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What regulatory or technological safeguards could realistically mitigate AI-driven disinformation before it distorts the 2024 election?
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How might the long-term social fabric of the U.S. change if an entire generation replaces homeownership with travel and consumption?
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If the DOJ wins its Google case and a breakup occurs, how would that reshape competition and innovation in search, video, and cloud services?
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Transcript Preview
Now, it's time for our predictions, of which we're not ready at all. But go for it, Scott. You start and I'll think of one while you're talking.
Uh, okay. So I'm just randomly picking three, uh, and I can't help but play, um, a geopolitical commentator on television. So, um, I've said this before, I think that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel are gonna normalize relations, and I'm, I'm, I'm... I'd like to think that peace and prosperity have a- are gonna have a second chance or new- newfound vigor as the two largest economies normalize relations. I think, I think that President Biden sending these carrier strike forces has ring-fenced the conflict. I think the whole world is coming to the important recognition that you can have empathy for one side, and that doesn't immediately prohibit you from having empathy for the other. And I'm, so I'm, I'm just hopeful that, uh, the normalization of relationships, uh, relations between the Kingdom and Israel will create a lot of economic incentives to maintain something resembling, uh, peace. And I'd also say that it's not possible with the current leadership on either side, but I know it's no longer a conversation. Normalization of, normalization of relations-
Yeah.
... in 2024 between the Kingdom and Israel. I believe that the world's largest tax cut, uh, in history is about to take place in 2024 as the US and China and Chinese relationship, uh, relations thaw. I think there's gonna be a new bear hug. I think that inflation in the United States is an existential threat across not only the United States, but governments are overthrown... If Roe v. Wade is overturned, people are upset about it, but only a small, a very small number of households are actually impacted. Inflation hits people every day, and it's literally the number one cause of why governments are overthrown or, or political parties are thrown out of office. So the US ha- and the West have an inflation problem. China has hit real roadblocks economically.
Mm.
Whether you look at their stock market, some of their biggest real estate, um, companies going out of business. And with a one-party system, if you have economic calamity, you re- you, you tempt or you risk revolution. And I think that while two years ago, they were definitely feeling, um, very emboldened, I think China now recognizes that, uh, their, they cannot take their economic growth for granted. They have had real economic issues the last two years. And the fastest way out of inflation and to renew economic growth across the largest and second-largest economies in the world are for the two to kiss and make up. And the IP and innovation of the US combined with the industrial and manufacturing might of China creates every single product (laughs) in the world for a lower price and a higher quality. And the, that chocolate and peanut butter of 88% of your toys under the Christmas tree, which come from China, being a little less expensive every year, uh, is going to, uh, the incentives are lining up for both parties to put their differences aside and re-embrace each other. So, normalization, or-
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