Will Election Betting Markets Get It Right? | Pivot

Former president's, uh, Trump's Truth Social was briefly worth more than Elon Musk's X, which has been declining in value as we've talked about before. Truth Social parent company was shortly valued over $10 billion, while X Holdings is valued at $9.4 billion, and that's probably being generous. Uh, the Trump media stock was briefly halted several times this week for moving so sharply. It's gone up and down, really is interesting. I, there's a lot of weird movement in this stock. I'd love to really actually see the transactions. Meanwhile, the parent company lost more than $16 million in the quarter ending June, and, uh, doesn't have very many, uh, people on it, which of course this is not about, it's, it's fundamental business issues. However, on Wednesday, Trump, this, the shares, Trump Social lost 1.3, Trump himself lost $1.3 billion in net worth after the worst trading day ever, for the, uh, for the company. We do disagree on why this is happening. I think there's a lot of gaming going on here, and I would love to see the logs (overlapping conversation)

But, say more about what you mean by that.

Well, if you're someone who wants to support Trump, like, th- these poli markets, everyone's like, "Oh, Peter Thiel owns it." Like, people... and it turned out there was one trade in France from one guy, uh, you know, that made, made it go up. So, we're all like, "Oh, Trump's winning," but he's not because one guy did it, right? And so, I worry this stock is being manipulated by, uh, uh, Trump-adjacent people, and who knows who they could be, to make it go up and down. I don't think this is a bunch of, like, uh, maybe it's Wall Street gaming the situation? Um, it feels very gamed, like, on some level the way it's gone up, because, uh, uh, getting away from the fundamentals of this company, which both of us absolutely agree is a piece of shit, right? It's a shit sandwich inside a shit, you know, pie, whatever. Um, it s- it seems unusual that this is happening. I don't think it's popular sentiment. It's some other sentiment. And you think differently. You think differently.

It's an interesting thesis, and that is that if, if a stock or a poll indicates that Trump is likely to win, that it gives people confidence or incentive or momentum on the Trump side. And then I've also heard a counter theory, and that is it's being manipulated by a Dem- a wealthy Democrat who wants to give Republican voters a sense it's in the bag such that people stay on the couch.

Oh, interesting.

I can see-

Oh, I didn't hear that one. That's fascinating.

Yeah, that was my friend Whitney Tilson who sends out a really thoughtful email almost every day.

Hmm.

Um, I can see someone manipulating... Well, let me back up. This is what I think is going on. Poli Market, uh, Calsha is that what it's called? Cal- uh, anyways, there's a bunch of 'em, um, that are basically wagering sites where you can bet on, amongst other things, every state, you can bet on margin of victory, and you can bet on the election. And right now on Poli Market, it has, uh, Trump at 62, approximately 62 or 63, and Harris at 37 or 38%. That is, that is a wide margin. And I think the logical thesis, or the most obvious one and kind of Occam's razor, I think the one that probably is correct, is that the kind of person that goes to a site and bets on an election is probably younger, probably more male, and those people skew heavily Trump. I mean, the majority of the data across the A+ list polling sites says that it's pretty much a toss-up.