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Mike Chalfen: How to Build Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios Today | 20VC #904

Mike Chalfen is a solo GP with Chalfen Ventures and one of the most respected and successful early-stage investors in Europe over the last two decades. Among Mike’s incredible portfolio includes the likes of King.com (makers of Candy Crush), Houzz, Tipalti, Snyk, and Tray.io, to name a few. Some incredible facts on Mike, he has a 15x career track record, he has a portfolio value of over $40BN+ and he joined the venture industry, the year of my birth! ------------------------------------- 00:00 Intro 00:44 How did you get into venture? 04:45 Misalignment with GPs and LPs 06:05 From APEX to Chalfen Ventures 09:58 Why most VCs aren’t good at building firms 11:20 Is the correction as bad as it seems? 13:45 How have prior busts change how you invest 16:52 Do you regret your pace of deployment in ‘21? 18:30 How do you advise new investors seeing this crash? 21:12 Keith Rebois’s acid test 22:45 What problem is Chafren Ventures solving? 26:23 Diversification in your portfolio 29:02 How do you think about market timing? 32:28 How do you think about reserve allocations? 34:35 What do you do if you lose trust in a founder? 37:45 How did becoming a parent change you? 39:47 How do you manage ego? 45:55 How have you changed as an investor? 48:26 Are VCs upfront today? 50:54 Outcome scenario planning 54:27 How do you approach unit economics? 57:16 When have you gotten it wrong? 58:48 Fear Of Missing Out - Why Mike doesn’t have it 1:01:48 Do boards add value? 1:04:59 What mistakes do young board members make? 1:05:54 Time allocation between companies 1:08:40 How should founders prepare for board meetings? 1:10:16 How to keep open communication 1:12:09 Rapid Fire Round - Favorite book 1:13:35 Biggest weakness of venture partnerships today 1:15:14 US VCs entering European deals 1:16:17 Selling on the way up 1:18:55 Pro rata investing 1:20:18 How do you deal with the tough times? 1 21:32 What would you like to most change about venture? 1:23:55 Most recent publicly announced investment ------------------------------------- In Today’s Episode with Mike Chalfen You Will Learn: 1.) Entry Into Venture and The Broken Customer Experience of VC: How did Mike make his original entry into venture way back in 1996? What does Mike mean when he speaks of the difference between “managing your career vs the money you invest”? What does Mike believe are some of the greatest challenges of venture partnerships today? What does Mike believe that the customer experience in venture partnerships for founders is broken today? How did seeing the prior booms and busts impact Mike’s investing mentality today? 2.) Portfolio Construction 101: How does Mike think about portfolio construction today? With 9-10 core positions, why does Mike disagree with the traditional notion of “diversification”? How does the decision-making framework for Mike change when considering new investments vs re-investments? Does Mike believe that pro-rata is a lazy notion? What does Mike need to see on the upside to re-invest? How does Mike feel about the importance of temporal diversification? Why did Mike increase the cadence of his investing in 2021? Does he regret the increased speed? 3.) The Market 101: How does Mike think about the importance of market sizing? If we always underestimate the size of our winners, is this market sizing exercise not destined for failure? Why does Mike believe so many over the last few years have poorly sized markets they invested in? How does Mike assess market timing risk? What market risk is he willing vs not willing to take? What have been some of Mike’s biggest mistakes when analyzing markets in the past? How did it change his perspective? 4.) Boards 101: How would Mike describe his style of board membership today? How has it changed over time? Why does Mike believe that boards at seed are not valuable? When do they become valuable? What is the single biggest mistake Mike sees so many young board members make today? What is his biggest advice to young board members? How does Mike advise founders on preparing for boards? What does he want to see? What are the biggest mistakes founders make when conducting board meetings? ------------------------------------- #venturecapital #venturecapitalist #solovc #MikeChalfen #HarryStebbings

Harry StebbingshostMike Chalfenguest
Jul 7, 20221h 26mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Building Anti-Fragile Venture Portfolios With Discipline, Empathy, And Focus

  1. Veteran investor Mike Chalfen walks through his unconventional path into venture, his evolution from big partnerships to solo VC, and how those experiences shaped his investment philosophy. He contrasts today’s correction with the dot-com bust, emphasizing that good companies remain good but now face faster, more reflexive market cycles and broader macro headwinds.
  2. Chalfen explains how to construct anti-fragile, highly concentrated portfolios: focus on varied types of risk, unit economics, and realistic market sizing rather than chasing momentum or over-capitalizing companies. He stresses frameworks, emotional resilience, and clear time allocation between winners and struggling companies, arguing that craftsmanship with entrepreneurs beats firm-building for many VCs.
  3. The discussion dives into reserves management, follow-on logic, market timing, FOMO, and how solo VCs can deliver high ‘bang for buck’ without dominating cap tables. Chalfen also gives candid views on boards, mentoring, ego, and why painful personal and professional setbacks made him a better, more empathetic partner to founders.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Build anti-fragile portfolios by diversifying *risk types*, not just deal count.

Chalfen targets 9–10 core investments per fund, but ensures diversity across go-to-market models, capital intensity, and whether they’re creating new markets or attacking incumbents, rather than blindly seeking 25–30 lines.

Always ask: “Would I put a dollar in at a zero valuation?”

A lesson from the 2000 bust, this question forces investors to decide whether a company is fundamentally sound or merely a beneficiary of market froth, guiding both new investments and triage decisions in downturns.

Reserve follow-ons for capital that still has 10x potential from *that* entry point.

Chalfen frames follow-ons as fresh 10x decisions; he’ll usually participate but sizes his check to reflect the probability-weighted upside, rather than reflexively doing full pro rata for signaling or relationship reasons.

Design cap tables as teams, not trophies—optimize for complementary value.

He encourages founders to define round milestones first, then construct a syndicate (lead, smaller fund, a handful of targeted angels) that is world-class on different dimensions, instead of overfilling cap tables or over-weighting brand names.

Use frameworks to manage uncertainty and reduce anxiety in volatile markets.

For newer VCs, he distinguishes unavoidable uncertainty from destructive anxiety; having a clear framework for which companies to back and support allows consistent decisions without re-solving everything from first principles.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

The first question is: would you put a single dollar into each of these companies at a zero valuation?

Mike Chalfen

Good companies are still good companies, but it might just take longer and maybe more dilution for them to come out the other side.

Mike Chalfen

I wasn’t managing the money I was investing; I was managing my career.

Mike Chalfen

Poor unit economics mean you’re always relying on the next investor—and ultimately the greater fool.

Mike Chalfen

A lot goes wrong. It’ll be okay.

Mike Chalfen

Mike Chalfen’s journey from Apax and Mosaic to founding Chalfen VenturesDifferences between past crashes (2000) and the current tech correctionAnti-fragile portfolio construction and concentrated, low-line fundsUnit economics, market timing, and avoiding over-capitalizationFollow-on strategy, reserve allocation, and selling on the way upRole of solo VCs, cap table construction, and GP–LP incentive alignmentBoards, mentoring, ego, and the emotional side of being a VC

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