The Twenty Minute VC

Niklas Östberg, Founder @ Delivery Hero: Competing with Uber and Doordash in a Capital Arms Race

Niklas Östberg is the Founder and CEO of Delivery Hero, a global juggernaut now present in over 70 countries across four continents. In Q4 2024, the company announced GMV of $49BN with $12.8BN in revenue and $750M in EBITDA. They have made an astonishing 35+ acquisitions including $2BN for Glovo. Before launching Delivery Hero, Niklas co-founded Pizza.nu, leading its expansion across Sweden, Poland, Finland, and Austria. ---------------------------------------------- In Today’s Episode We Discuss: How Skiing Prepared Me For Life As An Entrepreneur Losing $200M on Gorillas Investment Quick Commerce: Does the Business Model Work? How to Master M&A: Lessons from 35 Acquisitions Evaluating Acquisitions: The Glovo Example Cohort Analysis: Lessons from $49BN in GMV Growth Strategies: What Worked? What Did Not Work? Competing Against Uber and Doordash Is Cash a Weapon in the War for Food Delivery Why Are Emerging Markets a Good Investment? Why Are European Markets Broken? Are Regulators Killing Europe? ---------------------------------------------- Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3j2KMcZ... Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Follow Harry Stebbings on Twitter: / harrystebbings Follow Niklas Östberg Anil on Twitter: / niklasoestberg Follow 20VC on Instagram: / 20vchq Follow 20VC on TikTok: / 20vc_tok Visit our Website: https://www.20vc.com Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://www.thetwentyminutevc.com/con... ----------------------------------------------- #20vc #harrystebbings #NiklasÖstberg #DeliveryHero #CEO #Founder #venturecapital #banking #onlinebanking #uber #doordash

Niklas ÖstbergguestHarry Stebbingshost

Mar 11, 20251h 12mWatch on YouTube ↗

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Delivery Hero’s Niklas Östberg on Greed, Resilience, and Sustainable Scale

Niklas Östberg, CEO and co‑founder of Delivery Hero, reflects on building a global food and quick‑commerce giant, the dangers of overconfidence, and how capital market cycles reshaped his thinking on risk and valuation.
He explains why they chose debt over equity at the peak, how stock price collapse exposed that decision, and why disciplined cohort economics and sustainable unit economics matter more than rapid, subsidized growth.
Östberg argues most performance is driven by internal execution, not competition, and details contrarian bets like selling their German home market, doubling down on logistics and quick commerce, and aggressive M&A of small local players.
He also discusses maintaining speed at scale, authentic leadership, retaining founders post‑acquisition, and his nuanced views on regulation, Europe’s startup ecosystem, and the real long‑term impact of AI and automation on the industry.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Avoid greed-fueled capital decisions; over-raising debt can be fatal when cycles turn.

Delivery Hero chose debt over equity at a €30–35B valuation because they felt “unstoppable” and feared dilution on the way to a perceived €100B outcome; when the stock dropped 50%+, equity became inaccessible and debt became a heavy constraint.

Sustainable cohorts and unit economics matter more than explosive top-line growth.

Östberg repeatedly points to cohort behavior as “gravity”: discount-driven spikes (e.g. Thailand’s surge to 400k daily orders) revert to trend when subsidies stop, so growth must be built on lasting customer value and rational pricing, not vouchers.

Great leaders must be willing to be contrarian when their judgment is strong.

He cites doubling down on logistics in 2015, heavy investment in quick commerce, and selling their German home market as deeply unpopular but ultimately value-creating moves that improved customer experience and sharpened global execution.

Execution and culture drive outcomes far more than competitor behavior or balance sheets.

He estimates performance as “80% our execution, 20% competition,” arguing that even powerful rivals like Uber Eats and DoorDash are constrained by the same return thresholds and cannot sustainably overspend if your service is strong.

Speed at scale requires radical simplification, clear ownership, and local accountability.

Östberg emphasizes splitting goals to the smallest accountable units (e.g., by country), aligning metrics closely with what teams control, and avoiding organizational complexity that kills pace; most decisions should be reversible and iterated quickly.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

We thought that we were unbeatable, unstoppable… We got greedy.

— Niklas Östberg

In the end, cohorts are almost like gravity. They always work.

— Niklas Östberg

Great leaders follow their beliefs. When they do, people follow them.

— Niklas Östberg

I saw it as 80% competition, 20% our own execution. I’ve learned it’s 80% our own execution and 20% competition.

— Niklas Östberg

Complexity is a killer of speed.

— Niklas Östberg

Resilience, purpose, and authentic leadership as a founder‑CEOCOVID boom, capital markets, and the equity vs. debt mistakeContrarian decisions: logistics, quick commerce, and selling the home marketCohort economics, sustainable growth vs. discounts and “bubble” behaviorM&A strategy, buy‑vs‑build, and retaining entrepreneurial foundersCompetition dynamics with Uber, DoorDash, Getir, Rappi, and othersRegulation, Europe’s strengths/weaknesses, and future of AI, drones, and robotics

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