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a16za16z Podcast: Best Clips of 2022
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CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 1:22
Introduction to the Best Clips of 2022
Steph Smith opens the year-end compilation, previewing the range of guests from moonshot entrepreneurs to creators and technologists. She asks listeners to suggest guests for 2023 in the comments.
- •Compilation of segments from the 2022 roster
- •Guests range from entrepreneurs to creators and technologists
- •Listeners are invited to suggest future guests
- •A standard a16z disclosure plays after the opening
- 1:22 – 6:15
Marc Andreessen on Red Flag Laws and the Car Panic
Marc Andreessen describes the moral panic around early automobiles, which threatened the social order and industries built around horses. He explains the red flag laws, which required a person on foot to walk ahead of the car, and compares them to today's laws on new technology.
- •Cars were a threat to city layouts, local merchants, blacksmiths and carriage drivers
- •Red flag laws required a man on foot waving flags 50 feet ahead of the car
- •The stated reason was to avoid scaring horses and bystanders
- •The most extreme version required drivers to disassemble the car and hide its parts when a horse approached
- •Andreessen suggests laws on modern technology will look equally silly in 100 years
- 6:15 – 9:59
Balaji Srinivasan on the Internet as a Cloud Continent
Balaji Srinivasan likens the internet to a new continent that people commute to each day, with billions now spending much of their waking hours there. He compares it to the discovery of the Americas and suggests it will give rise to new countries, while most people have not yet come to think of themselves as cloud people first.
- •Screen time has grown from nearly zero in 1991 to hours every day
- •Billions of people have moved large parts of their lives to the cloud continent
- •The internet is compared to the discovery of the Americas
- •Early settlers of the Americas still identified with the old world, as people online do now
- •New countries may emerge from the internet frontier
- 9:59 – 15:45
Neal Stephenson on Whether the Metaverse Needs AR and VR
Neal Stephenson explains that the metaverse does not need AR or VR, since billions already access 3D spaces through flat screens. He discusses the persistence of motion sickness in VR and how AR differs because it is tied to the physical environment.
- •Stephenson once assumed the metaverse would be about goggles but his view has changed
- •Games like Doom showed that flat screens can be windows into 3D worlds
- •WASD keyboard controls work well despite being antiquated
- •Motion sickness affecting 5 to 10% of VR users is a high bar for commercial acceptance
- •AR must be tied to the physical environment, which differs from most metaverse discussions
- 15:45 – 21:20
Karen Cheng on AI Art and the Role of the Artist
Karen Cheng discusses how replaceable an artist is when using AI tools like DALL-E. She uses the Girl with a Pearl Earring example to show that different people get very different results, and says AI will lower the barrier to becoming an artist.
- •People with an artistic eye, patience and the ability to describe what they see do best with prompts
- •Many strong prompters are not traditional artists
- •The hired artist's Pearl Earring result moved Cheng and showed humans are not interchangeable
- •Cheng likens image synthesizers to Peter Pan, giving artistic skill to everyone
- •Steph Smith asks whether prompt engineering becomes the new filter that surfaces the best
- 21:20 – 25:44
Steve Wozniak on Wanting, Inventing and the Inventor Mindset
Steve Wozniak explains that starting Apple came from personally wanting a computer, and that motivation matters more than knowledge. He contrasts government and private industry and distinguishes engineers from inventors, saying Privateer looks for inventor types.
- •Wozniak's teaching experience convinced him that wanting something matters most
- •He built a computer for himself, and luck made it valuable
- •Government approaches are described as stale compared with private industry
- •Inventors prototype ideas quickly, and Wozniak says you are either an inventor or an engineer
- •Privateer is looking for inventor types
- 25:44 – 29:02
Wozniak on Visionaries and Seeing the Future at Apple
Asked about visionaries, Wozniak says vision differs from invention and that inventors build something that does not exist today. He recounts how Apple moved step by step from product to product, such as the iPod and iPhone, and says it is hard to see more than a year or two ahead.
- •Vision is different from invention, and long-range predictions are often science fiction
- •Memory to hold a song once cost a good fraction of a million dollars
- •Steve Jobs pushed the company to do what it could today and a bit more tomorrow
- •The iPhone was based on the iPod, not the reverse
- •Real inventors like to gamble
- 29:02 – 32:41
Privateer on Space Debris and Pollution
Dr. Moriba Jah and Alex Fielding discuss why space pollution is little known and how much debris is up there. Jah describes being shocked in 2006 that most tracked objects were garbage, and Fielding explains that small untracked pieces moving at high speed are dangerous.
- •Most people are unaware of how many satellites have been launched and that most do not come back
- •Privateer's Wayfinder and Astrograph let people see objects in orbit
- •In 2006 there were 1,200 working satellites and 26,000 pieces of garbage
- •Over a million debris pieces smaller than a centimeter cannot be tracked
- •Tracking everything is the first step toward cleanup
- 32:41 – 34:56
Space Collisions, Liability and Governance Gaps
Steph Smith asks how often debris collides and affects Earth. Alex Fielding says collisions are frequent, that liability and insurance exclusions discourage open discussion, and that space law based on maritime law lacks basic rules like right of way.
- •Collisions happen more often than people like to think
- •Liability and risk concerns limit openness in the space community
- •Many space insurance policies exclude debris from covered losses
- •Space treaties were based on maritime law
- •There is no clear right of way in space even as launches increase
- 34:56 – 39:29
Chris Power on the Fragility of American Advanced Manufacturing
Chris Power of Hadrian argues that weak advanced manufacturing is an existential risk for the country. He explains the idea of a lethality mirage, where perceived military strength deters conflict but may not match reality, and says a conflict with China could exhaust ballistics inventory.
- •Power says society's many layers of abstraction depend on a stable, strong America
- •He compares deterrence to bar fights, where a bouncer's reputation prevents conflict
- •A lethality mirage means others think the US is ten out of ten while Power sees about three out of ten
- •The danger is a competitor learning the truth before the US does
- •One major conflict could leave the US unable to remake its ballistics inventory for about five years
- 39:29 – 44:22
Ryan Petersen on How E-commerce Reshaped the Supply Chain
Ryan Petersen of Flexport explains how the internet shifted power to customers who expect wide choice and fast delivery. This forces brands to run distributed fulfillment and balance inventory, and many iconic brands have failed to adapt. Flexport aims to help new brands and transform enterprise brands.
- •In the mass media era, brands controlled a limited number of SKUs and customers had little choice
- •Customers now expect a million choices and very fast delivery
- •Faster delivery needs more fulfillment centers: about 5 for two-day, 16 for next-day, and nearly one per zip code for two-hour
- •Brands must load balance inventory, since too much ties up capital and too little loses customers
- •Flexport helps new brands avoid big logistics teams and helps enterprise brands adapt to e-commerce
- 44:22 – 45:18
Closing Thoughts and Look Ahead to 2023
Steph Smith wraps up the Best of 2022 episode, encouraging listeners to hear the full episodes of guests who interested them. She thanks the audience and asks for guest and topic suggestions for next year.
- •Full episodes are available for each featured guest
- •A full playlist is linked at the end of the YouTube video
- •The podcast is being revamped and is just getting started
- •Listeners are asked to leave guest or topic suggestions in the comments
