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Neal Stephenson on the Future of the Metaverse

When Neal Stephenson coined “the metaverse” three decades ago, his book Snow Crash was found on the shelves of “science fiction”. While the book remains in that category, many of its concepts are now found in reality… Fast forward to 2022, where numerous companies are now building toward their version of the metaverse, including Neal himself, working on his latest venture Lamina1, drawing on his experience as a builder at MagicLeap, Blue Origin, and more. While the present metaverses don’t perfectly mimic that from Stephenson’s early imagination, we get the unique opportunity to discuss the various design decisions that he’s making, but also the intersection between the metaverse and gaming, the involvement that AR/VR might play, the evolving role of IP, how artificial intelligence fits in, what he’s building and why, and where he gets all of his ideas from. Topics Covered: 0:00 - Introduction 1:20 - Tech's highest impact position 4:45 - What is the metaverse? 7:04 - Interoperability 9:17 - Incentive alignment 14:00 - Immersion requirements 17:37 - VR engineering challenges 21:35 - Skeuomorphism 26:07 - Commercial VR/AR applications 29:44 - AI and gaming 33:38 - The value chain 42:02 - Right of refusal 46:25 - Good and bad tech 51:08 - Fighting “free” 54:44 - Building Lamina1 1:05:26 - Neal’s design designs 1:11:48 - Inspiration for Snow Crash 1:18:21 - Looking ahead from 2022 1:21:45 - Science fiction writing 1:23:36 - Carbon removal Resources: * Neal’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/nealstephenson * Lamina1’s website: https://www.lamina1.com/ Stay Updated: * Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z * Find us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z * Subscribe on your favorite podcast app:https://a16z.simplecast.com/ * Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithio Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Neal StephensonguestSteph Smithhost
Nov 22, 20221h 28mWatch on YouTube ↗

Summaries, chapters, transcripts, and FAQs on this page are made by uListen, not YouTube.

CHAPTERS

  1. 0:00 – 1:28

    Can a Science Fiction Novel Align a Company?

    Steph Smith opens with a tweet calling science fiction novelist the highest-impact role in tech. Neal Stephenson explains how a novel can act like a magnetic field that aligns teams more effectively than PowerPoint decks and meetings, and mentions the Hieroglyph anthology.

    • •Novels can serve as roadmaps for companies or open source groups
    • •Corporate alignment burns energy on decks and endless meetings
    • •The magnetic-field analogy: everyone who reads the book gets it
    • •Distant-future novels may not be applicable for this
    • •The Hieroglyph anthology was created to have this kind of utility
  2. 1:28 – 7:52

    What Is the Metaverse? One Space, Not Many

    Smith asks what the metaverse actually means given how loosely the term is used. Stephenson says anything widely used today is probably pre-metaverse, and that a core idea is a single unified space, citing Tony Parisi's rule that there is only the metaverse.

    • •Current popular things are probably pre-metaverse on-ramps
    • •Tony Parisi's rule: there is only the metaverse, not metaverses
    • •One space can still hold a hugely diverse range of experiences
    • •You can always move from one experience to another within it
  3. 7:52 – 14:38

    Interoperability and the Game Developer Backlash

    Stephenson sees ad hoc cooperation emerging among games like Fortnite, Roblox and Minecraft. He explains why game developers and crypto advocates talk past each other, and distinguishes finely tuned worlds from mashup games.

    • •No top-down boss; ad hoc arrangements between companies
    • •Fortnite, Roblox and Minecraft are leading candidates for bridges
    • •Developers object on engineering and aesthetic grounds
    • •Mashup games like Fortnite are where interoperability will begin
    • •Interoperability won't be mandatory for worlds like Valheim
  4. 14:38 – 21:23

    Do We Need AR and VR? Immersion and Motion Sickness

    Asked about immersion, Stephenson says AR and VR are not required for the metaverse. He describes how billions already access 3D spaces through flat screens, why VR motion sickness persists for 5-10% of users, and how AR differs because it is tied to the environment.

    • •Doom showed flat screens can deliver 3D worlds
    • •WASD and mouse controls work despite being primitive
    • •VR motion sickness dropped but didn't reach zero
    • •He prefers VR sessions of 30-45 minutes
    • •AR must react to the physical environment, as at Magic Leap
  5. 21:23 – 26:06

    Skeuomorphism: Why Virtual Worlds Copy the Physical

    Smith asks why virtual worlds replicate physical structures like houses and happy hours when they needn't. Stephenson says avatar size norms and familiar shelter forms keep experiences coherent for a mass audience, while niche spaces can break the rules.

    • •Avatar sizes need shared understanding
    • •Wildly inconsistent spaces appeal only to enthusiasts
    • •Tim O'Reilly: the metaverse is a communications medium
    • •People are comforted by roofs and walls, perhaps for evolutionary reasons
    • •Niche spaces can follow any personal aesthetic
  6. 26:06 – 33:39

    Lessons from Magic Leap and Baby Goats

    Stephenson describes his content-creation work at Magic Leap, where devices scan the environment and populate it with assets. He explains the Baby Goats project and how AR forces AIs to devise their own plans in unknown living rooms.

    • •He chose content creation to build rather than just theorize
    • •Most of his work targeted general audiences, not enterprise
    • •Devices use machine vision to recognize floors, walls and doors
    • •Baby Goats was an ambient, non-game experience
    • •AR requires AI agents to act without pre-programmed maps
  7. 33:39 – 42:01

    AI, IP Ownership and Value Chains

    Prompted by Smith on AI and IP, Stephenson discusses the ethics of AI image tools trained on artists' work. He describes provenance-tracking smart contracts, the Shrapnel game, and a Hollywood-style waterfall replaced by automatic revenue distribution.

    • •AI image tools ingest work from millions of artists
    • •Jaron Lanier's value chain idea for rewarding contributors
    • •Movie waterfalls work but are slow and cumbersome
    • •Smart contracts could route revenue automatically
    • •Shrapnel is building smart contract templates for this
  8. 42:01 – 46:25

    Right of Refusal and Licensing in the Next Wave of NFTs

    Stephenson argues creators need a feedback loop to reject unwanted uses of their work, with rating systems or third-party evaluators. He says current NFT marketplaces ignore licensing and that the next wave will address it.

    • •Creators need a right of approval over derivative uses
    • •Examining every site is impractical, so rating systems or evaluators are needed
    • •Smith compares this to photographers, Unsplash and copyright watchdog sites
    • •Art bought for display could be reused as a brand logo
    • •Current NFT marketplaces don't handle licenses
  9. 46:25 – 51:08

    Technology for Good and Bad: Snow Crash and Revenue Models

    Smith asks how to design technology toward good outcomes. Stephenson says technologies carry no built-in bias, but social media's revenue model baked in harmful feedback loops, and he hopes the metaverse can use a more transparent one.

    • •Snow Crash is both a dystopian novel and a parody of one
    • •Technologies like the metaverse and Earth have no inherent bias
    • •Social media engagement loops stem from the revenue model
    • •He hopes for a more obvious and transparent revenue model
  10. 51:08 – 54:43

    Fighting the Pull of "Free"

    Smith asks whether people will opt into non-ad models. Stephenson calls the attraction of free very hard to overcome, compares it to free mobile games, and points to Jaron Lanier's union-like collective bargaining idea for data.

    • •Free mobile games range from transparent ads to slot-machine tactics
    • •The draw of free stuff can lead to negative social effects
    • •Lanier proposes union-like structures to sell data collectively
    • •Stephenson says he lacks a clear answer
  11. 54:43 – 1:08:18

    Why Lamina1: A Layer One Chain for Creators

    Stephenson explains Lamina1 as a new layer one blockchain aimed at creators, integrated into the tools they already use. The conversation covers creator payment transparency, the stance of Unity, Unreal and major game companies toward crypto, and the specific problems it targets.

    • •A layer one chain lets you control features and engineering
    • •Crypto and fiat will both be used in the metaverse
    • •Integrate payments into game-engine toolchains so creators needn't become crypto experts
    • •Big game players are currently avoidant of blockchain; Minecraft stated opposition
    • •Value chains and cumbersome cross-border payments are the main targets
  12. 1:08:18 – 1:14:25

    Carbon Neutral by Design

    Smith asks about making the chain carbon neutral. Stephenson links it to his novel Termination Shock, explains proof of work versus proof of stake, and says node operators will need to show they've bought legitimate carbon credits.

    • •Termination Shock made a carbon-emitting chain seem inconsistent
    • •Proof of work is energy-intensive; proof of stake is far more efficient
    • •Node operators must demonstrate purchased carbon credits
    • •Carbon credit quality varies, with ratings agencies assessing it
    • •Separate, early carbon sequestration ideas are being pursued
  13. 1:14:25 – 1:18:54

    Where Ideas Come From: The Origins of Snow Crash

    Smith asks where Stephenson gets his ideas. He says hands-on contact with technology helps, such as his graphics coding before Snow Crash and engineering numbers for Termination Shock, and explains how 1980s Japanese management and lone-hacker culture shaped Hiro.

    • •Direct involvement with technology supplies ideas and plot devices
    • •Snow Crash grew out of a computer graphics coding project
    • •Running the numbers on stratospheric sulfur informed Termination Shock
    • •The Japanese economic miracle influenced the white-T-shirt office detail
    • •Hiro is framed as the last of the freelance hackers
    • •The book was written around 1989 and published in 1992
  14. 1:18:54 – 1:28:46

    Looking Ahead: Polarization, Carbon, and Science Fiction's Pace

    Stephenson names carbon and societal polarization as the key issues for the next 30 years. He says no one has a solution to polarization, and that science fiction now trails digital developments. He closes with optimism about Terraform Industries and views on geoengineering.

    • •Carbon and polarization are the two most important issues
    • •Polarization is being weaponized by bad actors, and no one has a silver bullet
    • •Science fiction now lags behind internet developments but still leads in big engineering
    • •Terraform Industries uses photovoltaics to turn atmospheric carbon into synthetic fuel
    • •He suspects a country will eventually try stratospheric sulfur as a stopgap

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