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CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 2:16
A Record Year for Space and Meet John Gedmark
Steph Smith opens with a teaser montage and the stat that 2022 was a record year for the space sector, then introduces John Gedmark, co-founder of Astranis. She previews the shift from school-bus-sized government satellites to something very different, and the four billion people still offline.
- •2022 saw 186 successful rocket launches, 41 more than in 2021
- •Gedmark co-founded the Commercial Spaceflight Federation in 2006
- •Astranis sent its first commercial satellite into orbit in May and has a full Falcon 9 booked later this year
- •Four billion people still lack internet access
- 2:16 – 4:19
Starting Out at XPRIZE and the Commercial Spaceflight Federation
Gedmark explains why he wanted to be where the action was in 2006, starting as an intern at the XPRIZE Foundation. He describes how the Commercial Spaceflight Federation was created as an industry group without big defense contractors.
- •Private dollars were starting to fund new space companies
- •The XPRIZE $10 million prize for launching people into space was won by the group that became Virgin Galactic
- •Existing industry organizations were run by major aerospace and defense companies
- •The federation aimed to set policies and standards for emerging companies
- 4:19 – 7:38
Three Eras of Spaceflight and the End of the Shuttle
Gedmark lays out three eras: Apollo, the cost-plus shuttle era, and today's private era. He explains how the shuttle acted like a government monopoly on launch and how its retirement, along with dot-com money, opened the door for new companies.
- •Apollo was a massive government program built to compete with the Soviet Union
- •Shuttle-era cost-plus contracts entrenched major contractors, and the shuttle flew for almost three decades
- •Private satellites sometimes had no choice but to fly on the government-run shuttle
- •Retirement of the shuttle and dot-com wealth created the conditions for startups
- 7:38 – 10:35
Technologies That Made Small Satellites Possible
Asked what else drove the current golden age, Gedmark points to a basket of technologies coming together: lithium-ion batteries, cheaper chips, and propulsion advances. He also clarifies how big small satellites and old satellites are.
- •Lithium-ion batteries replaced heavy lead-acid batteries
- •Moore's Law brought enough compute at low enough cost
- •Skybox was one of the first companies to build a capable small satellite and raise venture capital
- •Small satellites range from breadbox-sized CubeSats to mini-fridge size, versus school-bus or double-decker-sized legacy satellites
- 10:35 – 13:16
Why Astranis Chose Geostationary Orbit
Gedmark explains the founding of Astranis in 2015 and why he targeted GEO, which he calls historically the most valuable orbit. He cites classified multi-billion-dollar programs and the success of broadcast satellite TV, and argues that large opportunities nobody is pursuing deserve investigation.
- •Small satellites naturally started in LEO because higher orbits are harder to reach and operate in
- •GEO is where the bulk of satellite spending has gone, much of it classified
- •Broadcast satellite TV was one of the biggest money makers in space history
- •When an opportunity is big and no one is doing it, figure out why and take a stab at it
- 13:16 – 17:52
Radiation and the LEO vs. GEO Gap
Gedmark describes why GEO is difficult: satellites sit in the Van Allen radiation belts. He also explains the value of parking one satellite over a region, and how the founders underestimated the gap between LEO and GEO components.
- •GEO satellites swim in trapped radiation and ionized particles
- •Electronics must be designed and qualified for this radiation environment
- •One GEO satellite can cover a whole country with broadband
- •Off-the-shelf components built for LEO often wouldn't work, so Astranis found rare parts or designed its own
- 17:52 – 22:57
Backhaul, Cell Towers, and Bridging the Digital Divide
Gedmark argues that connecting people is the most valuable thing to do in space. He says fiber has reached about as far as it will, so the problem is backhaul for cell towers, and that demand grows once capacity is available at the right price.
- •Internet access opens healthcare information, education, and the world's knowledge
- •Fiber is expensive and difficult, so cell towers need a connection to the internet, the backhaul problem
- •Customers include telcos, hospitals, schools, mining, and oil and gas
- •Steph Smith likens added capacity to an extra highway lane that fills up
- •Gedmark believes the economics are at an inflection point and expects scale to lower prices further
- 22:57 – 25:37
The Four Billion Still Offline
Steph Smith raises the lack of competition in many markets, citing the Philippines' 7,000 islands. Gedmark says the number of unconnected people has grown from three billion to four billion, and that the space industry has to solve it since balloons and drones are tough.
- •In many cases there is no competing internet service at all
- •The unconnected population has risen from three billion to four billion
- •Remote areas, islands, and rough terrain make fiber impractical or impossible
- •Balloons and drones face high operating costs and weather issues
- •He compares the problem's scale to energy and food, needing a basket of solutions
- 25:37 – 29:09
Government as a Buyer: Space Force and the Swarm Approach
Steph Smith asks what government buyers want. Gedmark says national security implications are almost inevitable, and that the military needs reliable broadband over multiple paths. Space Force is interested in a swarm of small GEO satellites instead of a few large ones.
- •The US military needs as much reliable broadband as it can get, through multiple channels
- •Traditional GEO satellites cost around a billion dollars each, and only a handful may cover a region like Asia
- •A swarm of small, more maneuverable satellites is harder to take out
- •Space Force got excited about taking the swarm approach to higher orbit
- 29:09 – 33:14
Ukraine's KA-SAT and the Risk of Slow Refresh
Gedmark uses the cyberattack on the KA-SAT satellite on day one of the invasion of Ukraine to show that satellites are real targets. He and Steph Smith discuss how decades-long satellite lifespans and growing satellite sizes run against the miniaturization seen elsewhere in technology.
- •Russia disabled KA-SAT with a cyberattack on day one, cutting comms across almost all of Ukraine
- •Large GEO assets built to last decades may carry 20-year-old vulnerabilities
- •Steph Smith frames the lack of iteration as a national security threat, and Gedmark agrees
- •Satellites have gotten bigger over time while other technology shrank
- 33:14 – 35:53
The Future of the Space Economy: Moon Infrastructure and Beyond
Asked what excites him over the next 5 to 20 years, Gedmark says the sources of value are not yet known, with asteroid mining still uncertain. He foresees a lunar economy needing communications, a lunar GPS, and cargo transport, with room for specialized companies.
- •It is unclear whether asteroid mining will become a big business
- •Government and private programs aim to return people to the moon
- •A lunar base would need communications infrastructure, a lunar GPS, and cargo ships
- •Companies can carve out a specific part of the ecosystem and do it very well
- 35:53 – 38:29
Reflecting on the First Launch and a New Golden Age
Steph Smith asks how it felt to reach the first launch after eight years, and Gedmark says watching a rocket carrying your satellite is special. He looks ahead to the dedicated Falcon 9 launch with four satellites and agrees that this is a new golden age of space.
- •Seeing a rocket with your satellite on it after years of work is something special
- •The next launch is a dedicated Falcon 9 carrying four Astranis satellites
- •The Astranis logo will be on the rocket, which is going up just for them
- •Both agree these milestones deserve celebration and mark a new golden age of space
