The Founders Who Left Tesla to Rebuild America | a16z

1. 0:00 – 0:47

   Intro

   1. TCTurner Caldwell0:00

      The US is 50 years behind on critical mineral supply. We are too slow at designing, building, and ramping up new minerals capacity even after we have license to operate.

   2. DBDrew Baglino0:09

      Even though there's so much innovation happening at the edge of the grid, on the other side of the wire, there's really been no change.

   3. EPErin Price-Wright0:14

      You both came out of Tesla. What does the Tesla model give you that a traditional industrial company doesn't have?

   4. TCTurner Caldwell0:19

      The belief that you can innovate on systems that are old and archaic. If the outcome is worth it, Tesla will fight through the challenges of getting to that outcome. We're making a big bet on autonomy in refineries, where we use reinforcement learning to actually remove humans from the loop in determining how refineries operate.

   5. DBDrew Baglino0:37

      The world's leading producer of silicon carbide, which is a key power semiconductor, is based here in the US, and so we should be leveraging the applications of that technology here first, manufacturing here at

2. 0:47 – 2:23

   AI Needs Physical Infrastructure

   1. DBDrew Baglino0:47

      home. And if we don't-

   2. EPErin Price-Wright0:50

      Now, it's tempting to talk about the AI race as a competition of models and chips, but the truth is that AI dominance and re-industrialization more broadly are physical projects. They are energy projects. They are mining and refining projects. They are manufacturing projects. They are grid-scale projects. Every breakthrough model, new factory, and autonomous system that we'll talk about here today has a real-world requirement underneath it: materials, energy, and the ability to move electricity where it's needed, when it's needed. We increasingly hear concerns that AI will put an undue strain on an already faltering grid, will demand more energy than we can give, more build-out than we can keep up with. And in many ways, these are fair concerns. But rather than taking this at face value and putting our pencils down on progress, we see this as a call to action, an opportunity. We can do great things in this country. We have rallied around national projects before, accomplished things few dreamed possible, and we can do so again. This is the next chapter of American dynamism. If we want to rebuild the industrial backbone of the United States, we have to rethink the entire stack, from critical minerals to energy generation, to transmission, to how we build and interconnect new infrastructure at the speed that it's needed.

3. 2:23 – 3:11

   Meet the Builders

   1. EPErin Price-Wright2:23

      This next conversation brings together two incredible entrepreneurs building across that stack to talk about what it will take to do just that. Please join me in welcoming co-founder and CEO of Mariana Minerals, Turner Caldwell, and founder and CEO of Heron Power, Drew Baglino. We'll spend a lot more time in this room today, uh, talking about AI, but the constraint on America's AI future, and in, uh, uh, as I mentioned, I think re-industrialization more broadly is in many ways atoms and not algorithms. So, you know, you two are both building, um, piece-- fundamental pieces of this physical infrastructure for the, that the future AI economy can't live without. So maybe just for the audience to get started, why don't you briefly explain what you both build and w- and why these physical industries matter?

4. 3:11 – 4:19

   Mariana Minerals Explained

   1. TCTurner Caldwell3:11

      Uh, yeah. So, uh, Mariana Minerals is a software-first minerals mining and refining company. Um, when I say software first, what that means is that about a quarter of the company is software engineers, machine learning engineers, uh, that are developing three core operating systems, uh, to accelerate project delivery, uh, and, uh, increase the amount of autonomy that we see in minerals operations and, and in refining operations. Um, Capital Project OS is basically a product lifecycle management tool, uh, is the way to think about it, but that goes from process development and mine development all the way through engineering, construction, and procurement, um, and doing agentic workflow automation kind of through that stack. Uh, Plants OS is how we use reinforcement learning to control refineries, uh, and Mine OS is again, how we use reinforcement learning to control, do short-interval autonomous control of mining operations. Um, but we do not sell software. We are not a SaaS company. Uh, we develop, uh, we, we engineer, build, and operate minerals projects. And so we have a copper mine that's operating in southeast Utah that's producing high-grade copper materials today, uh, high-purity copper materials today. Uh, and we're building a lithium refinery in Texas with the goal of building 10 projects in the next 10 years.

   2. EPErin Price-Wright4:18

      How about you, Drew?

5. 4:19 – 5:31

   Heron Power's Grid Upgrade

   1. DBDrew Baglino4:19

      Yeah. So, uh, first, thank you for having me today here representing the Heron Power team. So at Heron Power, we build, um, power electronics to accelerate the electricity sector. Um, over the last four decades, you know, in parallel with the, uh, Moore's law improvement of transistors in compute, there's been a similar improvement in power transistors. Uh, and over those decades, it's enabled, uh, more and more applications. You know, we see them in our, how we charge our phones, in telecommunications, uh, in data centers. Uh, but really that, that improvement hasn't been brought to the grid itself. And in a time of growing demand, uh, for electricity for so many different reasons, all of them positive, and the fact that electricity growth and energy growth is correlated with economic growth and prosperity, uh, we need new solutions. And luckily, the power semiconductor space is, uh, is ready to bring those solutions, and I'm excited to do that. At Heron Power, we're focused on, uh, building solid-state transformers to use silicon and software to replace steel, oil, and copper in power conversion at data centers, uh, large-scale energy installations like solar and battery projects, and others.

   2. EPErin Price-Wright5:30

      Amazing.

6. 5:31 – 7:48

   Why Onshoring Matters

   1. EPErin Price-Wright5:31

      Um, so the, the US government has made it a pretty clear and loud priority to reshore critical supply chains from critical minerals, advanced manufacturing, and, you know, there's also been a lot of focus in the AI race against China. Um, so maybe in plain terms, where does it leave us if American companies like yours don't exist and win?

   2. DBDrew Baglino5:52

      Um, yeah, I can take that first. Um, well, this power semiconductor capability that is enabling solid-state transformers actually is the outgrowth of, uh, many decades of partnership between the federal government and, uh, academia and industry. Um, both the DOE and the Navy have focused a lot on advanced semiconductors. Um, so it just makes sense that the place where, you know, this technology was first developed should be the place where it, all the benefits are commercialized. Um, the world's leading, uh, producer of silicon carbide, which is a key power semiconductor, is, is based, you know, here in the US. Um, and so we should be, you know, leveraging the applications of that technology here first, manufacturing here at home. And if we don't, we're basically losing the be- all the benefits that accrue from that technology to other, other coun- other countries, and I don't think we should do that.

   3. TCTurner Caldwell6:46

      Yeah. I think put plainly, um, you know, the US is 50 years behind on critical mineral supply. Uh, and so if we're not innovating in the critical mineral space, we will be perpetually behind. And the things that China does right now to accelerate, uh-

   4. EPErin Price-Wright6:59

      And when you say behind, you mean pr- specifically behind China?

   5. TCTurner Caldwell7:02

      Uh, specifically behind China. But I would say also globally we have a couple of decades of lag. Um, the, the, the things that we can do at the top level are, uh, accelerate permitting, we can make, uh, project level finance more available, but that doesn't actually solve the underlying problem, which is that we are too slow at designing, building, and ramping up new minerals capacity even after we have license to operate. And so Mariana is laser-focused on that phase of project development, which is you have to get things permitted, yes, but once you start building, it can take five years to get something built, and then it can take three or f- three to five years to get something actually operating at rate. Uh, and that's why we're laser-focused on that, so that even if we kind of start to lower the burdens to play catch up with China, we actually have to go faster than China does.

7. 7:48 – 21:09

   Tesla Lessons and Workforce

   1. EPErin Price-Wright7:48

      Yeah. Yeah. Um, y- you know, b- both of you spent a long time at Tesla. Drew, you spent e- 18 years at Tesla. You're like something of a deity among power electronics nerds, I would say. And now you work on grid scale power systems, which is, which is different. Um, so when you looked at the grid, what convinced you to leave Tesla and tackle this problem, this, I, I think seemingly unsexy, u- unsexy problem and in this way? Um, and, and maybe al- adding onto that, what does it actually take in terms of time, cost, regulatory hurdles to, to, to do this in the US?

   2. DBDrew Baglino8:24

      Big question there.

   3. EPErin Price-Wright8:25

      Two questions. I apologize.

   4. DBDrew Baglino8:26

      Yeah. [chuckles] Um, well, I was... I had a front row seat to a- an amazing set of impactful innovations at the grid's edge, right? EVs becoming more affordable, you know, uh, not just more affordable, but more omnipresent around us. Uh, building the supercharging infrastructure, uh, to support those electric vehicles, and then working on grid storage. I was responsible for, you know, the Megapack and scaling the energy business at Tesla. Um, and all along the way, what, what I saw was even though there's so much innovation happening at the edge of the grid, on the other side of the wire, there's really been no change. You know, the, the systems underpinning the grid today are the same mecha- largely mechanical systems that were developed over 100 years ago, and you don't get control, you don't get monitoring. Um, you end up with an overbuilt system that is fragile. Uh, and also there's not a lot of suppliers providing that equipment, and most of them are actually headquartered overseas, and that just doesn't seem like a, a secure position for such critical infrastructure for us to have here in the United States. Um, what does it take to get things done here? Um, I think you can. I mean, I, I built the mega factory, uh, with my team. You know, my team was super awesome, uh, in... Hello. In Lathrop, California, uh, in 11 months. It was a JCPenney warehouse. Eleven months later, the first product came off the line. Um, but ultimately what it comes down to is alignment. You know, when you're working with your local jurisdiction, they can use the process for a code compliant project to say no at every step, or they can say yes at every step. And so how do we, as a collective, you know, gain alignment that building, reindustrializing the US, building critical infrastructure, and supporting our critical supply chains here in the US is a good thing, and, and identifying ways to say yes at every step along the way and really accelerate these processes, uh, versus no. And, uh, when you do find that, it can be magical. Uh, that's been my experience.

   5. EPErin Price-Wright10:22

      And I know in particular you've talked, we, you know, we've talked about sort of labor costs and labor shortages, and oftentimes people point to that as the reason why they can't get things done in the US. But what's your experience been?

   6. DBDrew Baglino10:33

      Yeah. I mean, these, today's factories are really automated. If you're building a new factory today, you know, in China or the US, the labor differential is less than 10% of, of cost of goods sold. It might even be less than 5%. But what actually is driving the competitiveness, um, uh, of the, of the different locations, in my mind, is it comes down to supply chain and how do we develop co-located critical supply chains in the United States where the logistics costs are much, much shorter, um, and much, much lower because the logistics time is much, much shorter. If you look at, you know, China, they are so thoughtful about building these industrial areas. You know, everything that you could possibly need to build a car, which has 7,000 parts in it, you know, is with- within less than a three hours drive. Getting to that kind of co-location of the supply base in the United States would be a major unlock, uh, along with automation, uh, while still providing immense numbers of, of, of like high paying, you know, uh, im- important jobs. Uh, I think that's a vision that I, I'd like to advocate for.

   7. EPErin Price-Wright11:35

      Yeah. And, uh, uh, I mean, when we're talking about jobs on the, w- within factories, this isn't, you know, your gr- grandfather or great-grandfather's supply chain, uh, y- uh, assembly line factory floor. These are, you know, t- technical jobs, might require training, but-

   8. DBDrew Baglino11:52

      Yes

   9. EPErin Price-Wright11:52

      ... you know, ha- have skill and, and, and the pay associated with that.

   10. DBDrew Baglino11:56

       100%.

   11. EPErin Price-Wright11:57

       Okay, Tur-Turner, um, the US government ranks onshoring critical minerals as essential to economic and national security. It's been in the news a lot for the last year, rare earths, critical minerals, you know, uh, these things feel very bottlenecked. Um, yet so much of the processing capacity for these materials sits overseas, especially in geopolitical rivals, namely China. Uh, so given that vulnerability, how does Mariana Minerals work h-help the US reclaim not just the extraction side, the actual mining, but processing and supply chain sovereignty for critical minerals?

   12. TCTurner Caldwell12:30

       Yeah. So, um, you know, we focus on the full chain from mining all the way through refining. Uh, you have to focus on the full chain. That handoff in the middle leads to a lot of actual, like, market inefficiencies. Um, but the... You know, we've-- we're making a big bet on autonomy fundamentally. Like, we're making a big bet on the fact that we can build systems that enable us to engineer things faster using large language models, accelerate the pur- the procurement life cycle, uh, and do autonomous short interval control of construction operations, where you're really doing resource balancing between what materials do you have on site, what's your list of tasks, uh, list of tasks, and what people do you have on site. And kind of like doing that optimization is all things that can be done algorithmically. Um, and then we're making big bets on autonomy in refineries, where we use reinforcement learning to actually remove humans from the loop in determining how, uh, refineries operate. And so when you have a highly variable feedstock, 'cause the earth is heterogeneous, um, you need to constantly be tuning the temperatures, the flow rates, the chemical addition rates, the residence times of a, of a highly complex refining circuit. Um, and we don't have that labor pool here that has that embedded know-how, uh, that can walk up to a refinery and quickly get it operating on spec and then also manage that variability. Uh, and the same is true on the, the mining side of things, where, um, mining... At, at those mine sites, we're making thousands of decisions a day. Um, and when you don't have that labor pool of folks that are able to make the right decisions, the right thousand decisions, that can cascade into low productivity, low availability of equipment, um, and low utilization of equipment. Um, and but the, the software angle is really not enough, and we kind of talked about how we're vertically integrated. The, the, the gate to, uh, software penetration, really not the gate, what sets the rate of software penetration and technology penetration into these p- into these plants and into these mines ultimately is the operating teams. It's like what is the tech stack that they're comfortable with, and then for the most part, it is pen and paper and maybe 150 spreadsheets that are kind of scattered around an operation. And, um, what, what you need to do in order to actually accelerate software uptake in the space is you have to go down into that operating layer, understand the core problems that they're facing, but then also really control the culture and make sure that the, the, the software tools themselves are designed for the folks that are ha- gonna have to be interfacing with them. Um, and that's why we think that sitting the software engineers right next to the operating teams, but not in like a forward deploy engineer type way where everyone has the same incentives, is what's gonna yield the best results when it comes to trying to optimize these assets.

   13. EPErin Price-Wright14:55

       Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Um, now you both, as I mentioned before, you both came out of Tesla. It's one of the companies that proved the template for American dynamism and success, built factories in America for the first time in a long time. Uh, Turner, you led Tesla's, uh, miner- m-minerals and metals team. Drew, you ran powertrain and energy. What does the Tesla model give you that a traditional industrial company doesn't have? Um, and w-what is genuinely different maybe about building in your new respective sectors, uh, that you didn't expect relative to Tesla?

   14. TCTurner Caldwell15:31

       Yeah. I'd say there, I'd say there are three big ones, and they, they might overlap a little bit with, with Drew's. But, um, I think that the general, like, techno-optimism and, like, the what technology can do in this, in these sectors is much, much higher at Tesla, right? The belief that you can innovate on systems that are old and archaic, um, is, like, at the core of the company. Um, the other is a general, like, appetite for risk, which enables super fast decision-making, um, and enables the teams to move really quickly with-without being burdened with, you know, fear of making the wrong decision. Um, and the last is, like, a clear, you know, firm commitment to not giving up on projects that have the outcome... Like, if the outcome is worth it, like, we-- that-- Tesla will, like, fight through the challenges of getting to that outcome. And I think what we see, at least in, in, in the minerals industry, is, like, folks will give it a shot for a year. You know, people have tried to do autonomy in mining for a long time. Um, and generally, a lot of companies will just end up, you know, they'll fail, they'll put it on the shelf, uh, or they'll isolate it into a small team that goes, and they, they don't get really tapped again. Um, and Tesla does a really good job of just, like, barreling through the challenges as long as the outcome is worth it.

   15. DBDrew Baglino16:41

       Um, I would add a couple more, uh, uh, aspects of it. Like, you know, many times in Tesla's history, uh, you know, the company's future success, really, like, whether or not the paycheck will clear, you know, was bet on the team within the company e-executing well. Um, and that is a very, like, focusing reality. Um, and it drives people to do their best work, and I, I... and, and, like, you end up needing to manifest that outcome. You know, it's, I hate to say do or die, but it's equivalent to that. Um, so that's, that's something that exists uniquely within startups. I mean, I think, you know, Turner and I are gonna try to bring that, are bringing that to our own teams, but, um, and, and wouldn't be in an, in a legacy industrial, you know, you know, company. Uh, the other thing is, um, there was always a clear vision of the purpose of the company, and that's like a beacon for talent, right? People are like, "Oh, I, I wanna work on that. That's, like, that sounds amazing." And so you get to basically pick from the best already. Um, and then you're in this high-growth environment. You know, anybody who is excited about their career trajectory and, and, and having it trend in a, in a good direction is also gonna wanna work there and then is also gonna wanna stay there and see it through. Because their, th- their, their impact is real. They see the, the impact of their actions on the outcomes around them, and then those outcomes result in their own growth, right? They t-they move from one part of the company, like Turner did, uh, to another, uh, uh, or, or myself, I mean, my, my, my career history. So I think those are, are, are, are, are in stark comparison to like a c- you know, multi-product conglomer-- industrial conglomerate that's selling the same thing today that they, they were selling, you know, decades ago, or a mining company that's got 150 years of heritage. So, um, that's a hard thing to replicate, not in a startup, and it's a hard thing to maintain within a startup, but I, I think it's really important to getting things done.

   16. EPErin Price-Wright18:38

       Yeah. Yeah. Totally. Um, talking about kind of g-g-getting things done and building that team and, uh, b-being able to hire, you know, one thing that jumps out is both of your companies are building real facilities that will create real jobs. Uh, Turner, your initial lithium and copper projects should add, you know, over 500 construction jobs, um, and additional full-time jobs in the next 18 months, uh, with many more as you scale operations. Drew, uh, your He- Heron is getting ready to build out its first large factory, which should also be something around 500 jobs, and you know, that's just the first factory of many. What have you both learned about building an industrial workforce in the US in 2026?

   17. DBDrew Baglino19:21

       Uh, I think you have to be creative here in the US. We are re-industrializing, and I can't just go to, like, a phone tree of power electronics manufacturing engineers or, or, or production associates. Uh, and I mean, in my background, I, I built, uh, I was responsible for building, along with my team, uh, the 4680 program manufacturing facility, a 50-gigawatt hour battery facility in Texas. And, you know, at that point, there were really not a lot of battery operations in the United States, so you instead have to look for analogs. So I was hiring people out of high-speed bottling plants and out of, you know, uh, syringe manufacturing facilities where they're making billions of syringes. And, you know, if you can get that creative hat going, you c- you find that there's immense depth of talent in the US, and, and people are excited to work in new industries, and, and you, you build that shared vision of the future, and, and, and, and I, I'm, I'm very positive about what you can get accomplished here.

   18. TCTurner Caldwell20:14

       Yeah, I would say that looking at analog industries is a great point. It's the... You know, for, for the mining industry, we're in a similar position where we're kind of we've had 35 years of just meaningful attrition in the, in the labor pool. Um, but the oil and gas sector has a bunch of extremely good talent. Um, and the, the software space, um, you know, a lot of the underlying optimization algorithms that we're writing for our plants, they look very, very similar to, uh, the optimization algorithms that are in dog walking apps and, uh, Uber ride optimization-

   19. DBDrew Baglino20:41

       [chuckles]

   20. TCTurner Caldwell20:41

       ... uh, underwriting loans, uh, ad optimization. Um, and so the, there is transferability in the, in the, like, broader US talent pool. Um, what's important is building that talent magnet. Um, and it's a, it's an interesting one for us because, you know, the, the, the mining industry, um, like the villains in every movie, are the, the resource extraction folks. And so we have to, we have to, like, combat that and kind of say that-

   21. EPErin Price-Wright21:05

       Make mining sexy again.

   22. TCTurner Caldwell21:06

       That... Well, that's, that's right. That's exactly right.

   23. DBDrew Baglino21:08

       Yeah.

   24. EPErin Price-Wright21:08

       [chuckles]

8. 21:09 – 23:25

   Policy Asks and Wrap

   1. EPErin Price-Wright21:09

      Um, uh, f-finally, I know we're at time, but if you had one specific and actionable ask for the people in this room that would materially speed up production, um, onshore manufacturing, create jobs in the next 12 to 24 months, what would, what would you say? You have the floor.

   2. TCTurner Caldwell21:26

      Um, I'll go, I'll go first. I think the, um... You know, if we have a minerals mandate, what we should do is we should look at everything that was done in the last 50 years for oil and gas when we had an energy mandate, and we still have an energy mandate. Um, and you know, that's a lot of asks boiled down into one. Um, but there are a lot of tools in the toolkit. Uh, and I think the most important thing is providing, uh, the right incentive structure that mobilizes the private capital markets behind, uh, these projects so that they're confident that there is a market in the long term, uh, and that the rug isn't gonna get pulled out from, from under them, uh, in an industry that, you know, for the last 30 years really hasn't been built out in the US.

   3. DBDrew Baglino22:03

      Yeah. I, I think durable industrial policy that you can plan around. Um, I mean, I'm very pro, uh, manufacturing in the United States, building these technologies in the United States. Um, but, you know, my suppliers and my financiers are not as certain. So yeah, durable industrial policy driving in this direction. Uh, I think a concerted effort between the federal government and the states to identify areas of, like, energy and manufacturing build-out, like, so you can get those co-located supply chains that I mentioned before, would be a major win. You know, where, where the local jurisdictions are getting to yes with you rather than trying to find ways to say no all the way along the project. And then the last thing, uh, is, um, I-I'm a fan of the electricity sector. I think it's enabling so much growth. I like the idea of a federal highway trust fund for the, for the, for the grid. Um, it never has existed, and that's sort of why we have this patchwork. How do we find a, you know, master plan of build-out of linear infrastructure that maybe connects those, you know, manufacturing energy build-out zones to improve resilience, reduce costs, and really move us forward as a nation?

   4. EPErin Price-Wright23:14

      Awesome. Thanks so much. You heard it here.

   5. DBDrew Baglino23:16

      Great, thanks.

   6. TCTurner Caldwell23:17

      Thanks.

   7. DBDrew Baglino23:17

      Thank you. [upbeat music]

Episode duration: 23:33