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The U.S. Can’t Build AI Without These Materials

It can take more than 15 years to permit and build a new mine in the United States - yet nearly every modern technology we rely on, from smartphones to fighter jets to AI data centers, depends on a steady supply of critical minerals. In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Turner Caldwell, founder of Mariana Minerals, along with American Dynamism general partner Erin Price-Wright and partner Ryan McEntush. Turner spent nearly a decade at Tesla, working his way upstream from factory design to battery materials and mining. Now, he’s building a new kind of mining and refining company - vertically integrated and software-first- designed to meet the demands of our industrial future. We get into why the industry is so broken, what it actually takes to turn rocks into usable materials, and how the U.S. can rebuild its capacity to mine, refine, and manufacture the things that matter most. Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 The Importance of Critical Minerals 01:54 The Mining Process Explained 04:05 Challenges in the Mining Industry 05:46 Career Paths in Mining 06:40 Personal Journey and Insights 11:16 Tesla's Vertical Integration 12:47 Geopolitical & Market Dynamics 16:24 Technological Innovations in Mining 20:47 Industry Challenges & Opportunities 28:19 Mariana's Product & Thesis in Construction and Mining 29:30 Leveraging Technology in Mining 32:02 Automating Chemical Processing & Optimizing Refining Operations 35:25 Challenges in Scaling & Commissioning Refineries 36:55 Deciding What to Build & Where to Partner 38:05 Supply Chain & Commercial Deployment of New Technologies 40:20 Venture Capital & the Mining Industry 42:59 Critical Minerals & Their Importance 47:45 Permitting & Regulatory Challenges in the US 53:46 International Strategy & Future Goals 54:44 Conclusion: Rebuilding Infrastructure & Capability Resources: Find Turner on X :https://x.com/tbc415 Find Erin on X: https://x.com/espricewright Find Ryan on X: https://x.com/rmcentush Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Turner CaldwellguestErik Torenberghost
Jul 23, 202556mWatch on YouTube ↗

CHAPTERS

  1. Why AI, defense, and daily life all depend on critical minerals

    The hosts frame critical minerals as invisible infrastructure: essential to phones, laptops, energy systems, defense, and especially the rapid growth of AI. The episode positions mining/refining as both a geopolitical urgency and a technology opportunity.

  2. From exploration to end products: turning rock into batteries and magnets

    Turner lays out the full value chain: exploration, permitting, mining, beneficiation, concentration, refining, chemical conversion, and engineered materials that finally become batteries or magnets. The key theme is that it’s a long, multi-step process with many specialized transitions.

  3. Why every mine is bespoke: flow sheets, impurities, and changing ore bodies

    The episode explains why mineral processing is inherently customized: each ore body has unique grades and impurities, so the processing “flow sheet” is stitched together case-by-case. Operational difficulty increases because feed composition changes over time as the mine advances through heterogeneous geology.

  4. The human stack of mining: roles, skills, and the shrinking labor pool

    They break down the breadth of disciplines needed to run mines and refineries—from geoscience to engineering to on-site operators and back-office staff. The discussion highlights a structural labor shortage across both trades and engineering, worsening operational constraints.

  5. Turner’s path: Tesla, scaling infrastructure, and following cost upstream

    Turner explains how he moved from factory design/construction to cell manufacturing and then upstream into materials economics while at Tesla. He describes how tracing cost drivers leads inevitably to metals and refining, and why solving micron-scale chemistry to build kilometer-scale infrastructure is compelling.

  6. Lessons from Tesla’s vertical integration: incentives, innovation pace, and risk transfer

    The conversation connects Tesla’s early need to vertically integrate with the mining sector’s misaligned incentives. Vertical integration is portrayed as a way to move faster than suppliers and align innovation timelines—while acknowledging it increases risk by bringing partners’ risk in-house.

  7. Why mining tech adoption is so slow: pilots, risk aversion, and long build cycles

    They analyze why point solutions struggle: incumbents are conservative, downtime is expensive, and mines/refineries are built infrequently. Pilots are easy to run but hard to convert into full-scale deployments because commercial build windows occur only every few years.

  8. Geopolitics and China’s advantage: policy support, talent depth, and build speed

    The hosts compare Western and Chinese approaches, emphasizing China’s early recognition of critical minerals and strong top-down support. Turner highlights the scale of skilled labor and faster construction/commissioning cycles as decisive advantages.

  9. Industry structure: juniors, majors, ‘orphan’ projects, and Mariana’s entry point

    Turner describes how juniors primarily explore and aim to flip discoveries to majors, while majors seek only very large projects that justify multi-billion-dollar investments. Many deposits become ‘subscale’ or ‘orphaned’; Mariana’s thesis is to unlock these with better building and operating efficiency.

  10. Mariana’s product: a vertically integrated, software-first minerals developer/operator

    Mariana is positioned not as a SaaS vendor but as an integrated project developer and operator focused on detailed engineering, permitting, construction, commissioning, and operations. The core claim is enabling a smaller team to deliver what traditionally requires massive headcount, especially amid labor shortages.

  11. Capital Project OS: fixing construction latency, data fragmentation, and execution churn

    Turner details construction’s hidden drag: reporting lags, disaggregated systems, and manual data transfer between tools and teams. The proposed solution is workflow automation (LLMs) and better field-to-office data democratization to speed decisions and reduce rework.

  12. PlantOS and refinery automation: RL for multivariable, high-latency process control

    The episode shifts to processing/refining, describing refineries as “big robots” with thousands of control variables and complex recycle loops. Mariana aims to remove humans from the loop using reinforcement learning to optimize energy, reagents, and recovery—especially as feedstock varies over time.

  13. Commissioning and scaling refineries: why the West is slower and how to speed deployment

    They contrast Chinese commissioning timelines (months) with Western timelines (years), noting some facilities still not fully commissioned years after construction. The discussion ties long commissioning to complex recycle systems, delayed process feedback, and limited operational know-how at scale—areas targeted by automation.

  14. Build vs partner: proven unit ops first, supply-chain bottlenecks, and commercialization strategy

    Mariana plans to start with commercially proven unit operations to ease financing and focus innovation on integration and operations. They also flag industrial supply-chain fragility (long lead times for basic equipment) and discuss becoming an enabling customer for novel processing tech by accelerating commercial deployment.

  15. VC perspective and the US roadmap: demand support, permitting reform, and global expansion

    The investors argue mining is one of the last huge markets underpenetrated by tech and that vertical integration is necessary to capture value. Turner closes with policy recommendations (exploration/permitting efficiency and demand-side support like offtake floors), then outlines a global strategy and a 10-project, 10-year goal to rebuild capability.

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