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The U.S. Can’t Build AI Without These Materials

It can take more than 15 years to permit and build a new mine in the United States - yet nearly every modern technology we rely on, from smartphones to fighter jets to AI data centers, depends on a steady supply of critical minerals. In this episode, Erik Torenberg is joined in the studio by Turner Caldwell, founder of Mariana Minerals, along with American Dynamism general partner Erin Price-Wright and partner Ryan McEntush. Turner spent nearly a decade at Tesla, working his way upstream from factory design to battery materials and mining. Now, he’s building a new kind of mining and refining company - vertically integrated and software-first- designed to meet the demands of our industrial future. We get into why the industry is so broken, what it actually takes to turn rocks into usable materials, and how the U.S. can rebuild its capacity to mine, refine, and manufacture the things that matter most. Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 00:53 The Importance of Critical Minerals 01:54 The Mining Process Explained 04:05 Challenges in the Mining Industry 05:46 Career Paths in Mining 06:40 Personal Journey and Insights 11:16 Tesla's Vertical Integration 12:47 Geopolitical & Market Dynamics 16:24 Technological Innovations in Mining 20:47 Industry Challenges & Opportunities 28:19 Mariana's Product & Thesis in Construction and Mining 29:30 Leveraging Technology in Mining 32:02 Automating Chemical Processing & Optimizing Refining Operations 35:25 Challenges in Scaling & Commissioning Refineries 36:55 Deciding What to Build & Where to Partner 38:05 Supply Chain & Commercial Deployment of New Technologies 40:20 Venture Capital & the Mining Industry 42:59 Critical Minerals & Their Importance 47:45 Permitting & Regulatory Challenges in the US 53:46 International Strategy & Future Goals 54:44 Conclusion: Rebuilding Infrastructure & Capability Resources: Find Turner on X :https://x.com/tbc415 Find Erin on X: https://x.com/espricewright Find Ryan on X: https://x.com/rmcentush Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Turner CaldwellguestErik Torenberghost
Jul 22, 202556mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Critical minerals, vertical integration, and software to rebuild U.S. capacity

  1. Critical minerals (from copper and aluminum to lithium, nickel, and rare earths) underpin everyday electronics, defense, and the rapid growth of AI and electrification, yet the supply chain from ore to finished materials is long and fragile.
  2. Mining and refining are highly bespoke, multistep processes where ore variability, complex flow-sheet design, and long feedback loops make operations difficult to optimize and slow to ramp.
  3. The Western mining ecosystem is constrained by shrinking skilled labor pools, risk-averse incumbents, and slow technology adoption, while China benefits from strong policy support and massive experienced labor capacity.
  4. Mariana positions itself as a vertically integrated, “software-first” minerals project developer/operator, aiming to modernize construction execution and automate plant operations using LLM-driven workflow tools and reinforcement learning.
  5. Policy and capital formation are framed as solvable constraints: streamline exploration and permitting, and use demand-side support (offtakes/price floors) to unlock large pools of private capital for new mines and refineries.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

AI scaling is physically constrained by metals, not just chips.

The conversation ties AI growth to grid buildout and infrastructure, which drives demand for copper and aluminum in particular, plus a broader basket of industrial and battery metals.

Turning “rocks into batteries/magnets” is a long chain with many failure points.

From exploration and permitting to beneficiation, refining, specialty chemicals, and engineered materials, each stage adds complexity, logistics, and quality constraints before a battery pack or motor is possible.

Every mine/refinery is custom-built, and the ore changes over time.

Because flow sheets are designed around a specific deposit and impurity profile, operational settings that work today may fail as ore zones shift—driving a need for more flexible circuits and control systems.

Western incumbents struggle to adopt point solutions; integration matters.

Risk is evaluated at the level of many small changes where any one can cause costly downtime, so pilots are common but commercial rollouts are rare and slow; owning more of the system helps capture the upside.

Construction latency is a hidden killer of megaproject productivity.

Large projects can run with weeks-long delays between field reality and executive visibility due to fragmented data and manual reporting, leading to churn, misprioritization, and slower schedules.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

Critical minerals fundamentally underpin everything that we do every day.

Turner Caldwell

And you are trying to figure out how do you extract, you know, that 1% and get it to 100% purity.

Turner Caldwell

If you wanna have a big impact on the world, you have to build things at scale. Um, that is, that, that's how you get to impact.

Turner Caldwell

Like, to what Seth Turner's been talking about is, like, now we have technology that can actually go and disrupt this, but also as a talent base, people coming from companies like Tesla, SpaceX, Anduril, other sort of hard tech companies working in sort of dirty spaces, willing to go out in the fields and actually-

Turner Caldwell

We have fundamentally lost the ability to build large scale infrastructure, and we have lost the ability to, like, operate complex, um, minerals plants. Like, that's what we have lost.

Turner Caldwell

Critical minerals and AI/electrification/defense dependencyOre-to-metal supply chain and bespoke flow sheetsLabor shortages and talent retention in mining/constructionVertical integration lessons from TeslaAutomation gaps and RL-based plant optimization (PlantOS)Construction execution latency and workflow automation (Capital Project OS)Permitting, demand-side policy support, and commodity-cycle timing

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