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Why HubSpot’s Co-Founder Is Betting Against the SaaSpocalypse

As frontier AI labs expand into applications, where should startups build? a16z Partner Joe Schmidt joins HubSpot co-founder and CTO Dharmesh Shah to explore why the software opportunity is growing, and how founders can stay off the…

Dharmesh ShahguestJoe Schmidthost
Nov 10, 202659mWatch on YouTube

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At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

AI is the new OS, but software opportunities keep expanding

  1. Dharmesh Shah describes the current AI moment as “best of times, worst of times,” emphasizing that it’s the most fun he’s had building software because AI enables higher abstraction and faster iteration.
  2. He argues founders should stop over-indexing on rigorous upfront idea analysis and instead ship quickly to learn, because successful companies rarely resemble the initial idea.
  3. He explains HubSpot’s expansion from marketing software to CRM as a response to discovering that 60% of paying customers weren’t using any CRM, leading HubSpot to build an easy CRM and make it free to remove intimidation and cost barriers.
  4. He outlines how HubSpot built a developer ecosystem by prioritizing trust and treating ecosystem work like product work, focusing on developer “time to joy” and “first dollar.”
  5. He says frontier AI tools are becoming a new “OS/browser,” models are trending toward infrastructure, and durable opportunity exists off the “Yellow Brick Road” by building domain software and compounding loops rather than chasing temporary gaps.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

AI creates a renewed, familiar mission: make a transformational technology approachable for SMBs.

He frames the current moment as a once-in-a-career platform shift similar to the early internet era, where the technology is powerful but still intimidating for the same SMB customer base HubSpot originally served.

Great startup idea selection is less analysis and more rapid testing and iteration.

He argues founders can’t reliably judge idea quality up front and should instead optimize for short, cheap learning loops—getting something into users’ hands quickly and iterating based on reality rather than spreadsheets.

HubSpot’s CRM wedge was driven by an observed customer gap (the “missing CRM”), not an original master plan.

HubSpot’s move into CRM came from observing that most paying customers weren’t using any CRM, concluding that intimidation and cost were blockers, and launching an “easiest CRM” that was free to remove both obstacles.

Ecosystem durability comes from developer trust plus a deliberate developer experience.

He says platforms often “stomp over” developers over time; HubSpot aimed to earn trust by being transparent about where it might build, and by treating ecosystem-building like product-building—compressing “time to joy” and “time to first dollar” for developers.

Avoid competing on gaps that frontier AI labs can close; choose incentives/constraints-based whitespace.

He warns against startups building features that frontier-model products don’t do “yet,” and suggests evaluating both the product and the company behind it, while choosing opportunities that frontier labs are unlikely to pursue due to incentives or constraints.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

I've been building commercial software for thirty-plus years now- like literally, like every day. Um, and this is the most fun I've ever had, um, in terms of building things. It's, uh, this-- what a time to be a builder.

— Dharmesh Shah

But, like, tell me what you're gonna do in the first thirty days.

— Dharmesh Shah

It's like, create customer value before you try to extract it.

— Dharmesh Shah

If you can just append, uh, the word "yet" to it, uh, and it still holds water, that's a problem. It's like, "Oh, ChatGPT can't do that yet."

— Dharmesh Shah

The actual thing that's valuable is the work that's happening. The interface is a means to an end.

— Dharmesh Shah

Read the available transcript
AI as higher abstraction for building softwareStartup idea selection and rapid testing loopsSMB market strategy and product wedge evolutionHubSpot’s move from marketing suite to free CRMPlatform ecosystem trust and developer experience“Yellow Brick Road” strategy vs frontier AI labsModels as infrastructure; AI as the new OS/browser

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SPEAKERS

  • Dharmesh Shah

    guest

    Co-founder and CTO of HubSpot, long-time commercial software builder focused on SaaS and AI-driven product strategy.

  • Joe Schmidt

    host

    a16z podcast host and Andreessen Horowitz investor who interviews founders and operators about technology and business strategy.

High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.

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