All-In PodcastE110: 2023 Bestie Predictions!
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 2:15
New Year catch-up, fan in-jokes, and why the pod sets the agenda
The besties kick off 2023 with travel banter, community shout-outs, and a quick reflection on how topics they discuss often show up later as mainstream financial press narratives. They set up the annual predictions format and recap prior-year calls.
- •Cold-weather vacation jokes and New Year reset vibes
- •Listeners/fans ‘open sourcing’ show bits and community nicknames
- •Chamath notes recurring pattern: WSJ later covers topics the pod debated (VC distributions, Citadel)
- •Framing the show as Silicon Valley’s ‘backchannel’ conversation
- •Setup for 2023 prediction categories
- 2:15 – 12:27
Prediction #1 – Biggest political winner: affirmative action case, Saudi influence, and GOP jockeying
The group debates who gains the most politically in 2023, spanning US domestic policy, geopolitics, and Republican primary dynamics. Picks range from Asian American college applicants benefiting from a Supreme Court ruling to MBS consolidating global leverage, plus a contrarian GOP spread trade.
- •Sacks: Asian American college applicants win as SCOTUS likely strikes down race-based admissions
- •Chamath: affirmative action became classism disguised as racism; expects repeal and meritocratic reset
- •Friedberg: MBS as major geopolitical winner via oil/yuan leverage and US-China-Russia balancing
- •Chamath spread trade: long Nikki Haley, short Ron DeSantis (moderates vs early frontrunner risk)
- •JCal’s Trump scenario includes indictment/strategy speculation and weight-loss joke segue
- 12:27 – 17:26
GLP-1 detour: Ozempic/Wegovy, metformin, and ‘wonder drugs’ discussion
A political prediction tangent turns into a health and longevity conversation about GLP-1 drugs, statins, and metformin. They discuss personal experiences, potential broad public-health impacts, and add disclaimers about medical advice.
- •JCal and Sacks mention trying Ozempic; JCal describes weight-loss experience
- •Chamath: GLP-1s show extraordinary early data beyond weight (insulin response, cardiac health)
- •Statins and metformin positioned as proven/valuable longitudinal interventions
- •Emphasis on doctor supervision and not taking health advice from podcasts
- •Speculation these therapies could ‘change the world’
- 17:26 – 22:04
Prediction #2 – Biggest political loser: debt stress, the IMF, and California’s budget hangover
They shift to political losers, focusing on the consequences of global debt burdens and local fiscal mismanagement. The IMF is predicted to become a lightning rod during emerging-market debt stress, while California and San Francisco face looming deficits as tax bases weaken.
- •Friedberg: global debt + higher rates triggers sovereign stress; IMF becomes scapegoat
- •IMF ‘can’t win’—too slow vs too aggressive, inflation vs growth tradeoffs
- •Sacks: California/SF face massive shortfalls after blowing 2021 surplus; volatile capital gains dependence
- •Commercial real estate weakness hits SF tax base particularly hard
- •Chamath/JCal: DeSantis framed as political loser (peaked early + party chaos)
- 22:04 – 30:44
Prediction #3 – Biggest business winner: space launch, OpenAI platform effects, and startup founders from layoffs
Business winners span frontier tech and labor-market shifts. Chamath backs Relativity Space’s upcoming launch and SpaceX dominance, Friedberg calls OpenAI the obvious breakout, Sacks highlights US natural gas (LNG) strength, and JCal predicts laid-off builders become elite founders.
- •Chamath: Relativity Space launch is inflection; 3D-printed rockets could slash costs; $10B order book unlock
- •Friedberg: OpenAI catalyzes startups; potential Microsoft mega-deal; platform/AWS-like role
- •Sacks: US natural gas/LNG wins as Europe rapidly builds import terminals and decouples from Russian gas
- •JCal: laid-off tech workers form teams and start companies; gig platforms benefit from labor supply
- •Humor: using ChatGPT for parenting scripts and pod talking points
- 30:44 – 42:02
Prediction #4 – Biggest business loser: capital-intensive growth startups, strained consumers, and Google Search disruption risk
They argue 2023 punishes businesses needing big follow-on financing and consumers living on expensive credit. Chamath adds an AI-driven competitive threat to Google Search profitability, while JCal expands the loser list to include ‘surplus elites’ and overstaffed white-collar roles.
- •Friedberg: Series B+ capital dries up; many high-burn companies hit a funding wall; dot-com-like wipeout risk
- •Sacks: ‘the consumer’ as loser—record credit card rates/debt, mortgages >7%, layoffs, recession likelihood
- •Chamath: toxic preference stacks + valuation resets; converts/warrants obscure reality and hurt employees
- •Chamath: Google Search could lose meaningful usage as AI answers spread across platforms
- •JCal: white-collar workers without hard skills lose bargaining power; layoffs cascade via vendor belt-tightening
- 42:02 – 52:39
Prediction #5 – Biggest business deal: Starlink IPO, Russia–China mega-trade, petro-yuan, and Apple’s wildcard acquisition
Deal predictions range from capital markets reopening via a Starlink spinoff to geopolitical energy/currency realignments. Friedberg floats Apple making an out-of-character acquisition (content or auto) under manufacturing and antitrust pressure; JCal predicts Amazon health consolidation and TikTok divestment under US duress.
- •Chamath: Starlink goes public; could be valued ~half of SpaceX; gives Elon financial flexibility
- •Sacks: Russia–China expands ‘no limits’ partnership into energy/agriculture/minerals; could be trillion-scale
- •Friedberg: petro-yuan (Saudi oil sold in yuan) as seismic global reserve-currency signal
- •Friedberg wildcard: Apple buys something ‘outrageous’ (Disney/auto) to diversify amid China/App Store pressure
- •JCal: Amazon builds a ‘fourth pillar’ in healthcare; TikTok forced divest/IPO due to bipartisan pressure
- 52:39 – 1:03:03
Prediction #6 – Most contrarian belief: Ukraine endgame rift, sticky inflation, and dollar reserve status erosion
Contrarian calls focus on geopolitical and macro turning points. Sacks predicts a Biden–Zelensky divergence after a spring counteroffensive, Chamath expects inflation to stay stubborn via wage pressures, and Friedberg argues the dollar may start trading more like a risk asset as non-dollar trade grows.
- •Sacks: US-Ukraine alignment frays—stalemate triggers negotiation pressure; success raises Crimea/nuclear risk
- •Chamath: inflation has chapters (energy → goods → wages); labor gains keep inflation persistent
- •Friedberg: large non-dollar trade blocks weaken dollar reserve privilege; USD may behave more like a risk asset
- •JCal counters with ‘American exceptionalism’ via freedom/entrepreneurship; dictators self-sabotage
- •Sacks: BRICS want off dollar, but US power remains ‘on turbo’ and alternatives aren’t ready
- 1:03:03 – 1:07:50
Prediction #7 – Best-performing asset: seed investing vs T-bills, and ‘real economy’ compounders
They debate whether the safest return (short-duration Treasuries) beats riskier venture bets. JCal picks seed-stage investing as the best asset class, while Sacks and Friedberg argue short-term T-bills offer compelling risk-free yield; Friedberg adds infrastructure/industrial compounders as long-run winners.
- •JCal: seed/Series A returns improve as late-stage cap tables become toxic
- •Friedberg: cash + front end of yield curve; prefer preserving optionality over picking a bottom
- •Sacks: ‘set it and forget it’ short-term T-bills if rates hit ~5.4%
- •Friedberg: infrastructure beneficiaries (semi capex, oilfield services, heavy equipment, pharma tools)
- •Theme: resilience, ROIC, and multi-year spend cycles vs near-term market chop
- 1:07:50 – 1:14:45
Prediction #8 – Worst-performing asset: energy fatigue, junk debt, SF office towers, and consumer credit defaults
Worst-asset calls converge on credit stress and commercial real estate. Chamath targets junk debt as variable-rate burdens bite, Sacks spotlights San Francisco office towers as toxic and bank-bound, and Friedberg predicts consumer credit breaks as spending habits collide with higher rates.
- •JCal: energy may be overcrowded after 2022 run; recession reduces demand
- •Chamath: junk debt cracks as floating-rate coupons jump; restructurings and failures rise
- •Sacks: SF office towers—high vacancy, lease roll-offs, homelessness impacts; major fire sales likely
- •Chamath: Blackstone BREIT redemption limits signal CRE stress; refinancing at higher rates worsens math
- •Friedberg: consumer credit defaults as ‘muscle memory’ spending meets high interest expense
- 1:14:45 – 1:21:33
Prediction #9 – Most anticipated trend: austerity mindset, Trump’s waning GOP control, and cell/gene therapy scale-up
They forecast cultural and political shifts toward belt-tightening and changing power centers. JCal and Friedberg embrace ‘austerity’ as a lifestyle and corporate operating mode, Sacks predicts Trump’s influence fades inside the GOP, and Friedberg highlights cell and gene therapies moving toward mainstream adoption and infrastructure buildout.
- •JCal: ‘austerity’ becomes the vibe—less waste and more cost-conscious behavior
- •Friedberg: household budgets and spending discipline return as inflation shock sets in
- •Sacks: Trump endorsements lose potency; midterm outcomes reduce GOP tolerance for 2020-election fixation
- •Discussion: populism persists but may need a different candidate to unify party wings
- •Friedberg: cell/gene therapies—27 approved, 1,000+ in trials; delivery/manufacturing infrastructure is the bottleneck
- 1:21:33 – 1:26:56
Prediction #10 – Most anticipated media: Oppenheimer, Marvel’s Kang arc, Dune Part Two, and AI-generated entertainment
Media picks mix blockbuster films, franchise TV, and emerging AI creativity. JCal leads with Nolan’s Oppenheimer and a slate of TV returns, Sacks bets on Marvel’s next villain build-out and Loki S2, Friedberg calls Dune Part Two the obvious hype title, and also predicts a breakout year for AI-generated novels, music, and interactive experiences.
- •JCal: Oppenheimer; Succession return; Ahsoka; Ted Lasso S3; Michael Lewis SBF book anticipation
- •Nolan filmography tangent (Tenet confusion, Memento praise)
- •Sacks: Marvel Phase focus—Kang, Ant-Man, Loki S2; plus Cocaine Bear as chaos pick
- •Friedberg: Dune Part Two as big-screen event; emphasizes cinematic style of Part One
- •Friedberg: generative-AI media—AI-written novels/symphonies and interactive game worlds
- 1:26:56 – 1:38:06
Breaking news – OpenAI tender at ~$29B: valuation debate, defensibility, and the coming copyright fight
They close on a fresh report that OpenAI may be doing a tender offer around a $29B valuation, sparking a heated debate about fundamentals, platform monetization, and legal risk. The conversation crystallizes around training-data rights, derivative works, and how AI products might need new web standards or legal frameworks.
- •Report: Founders Fund/Thrive involved; JCal skeptical of $29B valuation without clear revenue economics
- •Friedberg: sees infrastructure/platform upside; could become a $300B company
- •Chamath: defensibility depends on unique data or tuning; otherwise models converge given similar training sets
- •JCal: predicts lawsuits over unauthorized training data and derivative works; suggests citations/attribution
- •Idea: ‘AI.TXT’ analog to robots.txt; plan to bring on experts (e.g., Karpathy/Sam Altman)
