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E156: Ivy League antisemitism, macro, SaaS recovery, Gemini, Figma deal delay + big Friedberg update

(0:00) Bestie intro! (3:12) Ivy League antisemitism hearings (21:55) State of the economy for consumers (34:55) Signs of life in SaaS, VC shutdowns, and more (44:59) Why Friedberg chose to take the role of CEO at Ohalo, and the dearth of great leadership talent in tech (1:01:07) Google announces Gemini: Why this is a notable moment for Google, industry impact, and more (1:11:50) Adobe's $20B Figma acquisition has stalled out due to the UK's CMA Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://twitter.com/Jason https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://rankings.thefire.org/rank https://www.ft.com/content/9c7931aa-4973-475e-9841-d7ebd54b0f47 https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/82/1/135/4868126 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/americans-401k-plans-bill-payments/index.html https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/inflation-consumer-spending-personal-income-october-2023-6a1ecb1d https://www.axios.com/2023/11/28/cyber-monday-spending-record-shopping https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/economy/consumer-price-index-october/index.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/21/home-sales-fell-to-a-13-year-low-in-october-as-prices-rose.html https://kalshi.com/markets/fed/fed-funds-rate#fed-23dec https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1730607188341624851 https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1718016818118553622 https://www.saastr.com/carta-startup-shutdowns-are-up-237 https://www.theinformation.com/articles/vc-firm-openview-abruptly-winds-down-as-industry-pressure-rises https://cloudedjudgement.substack.com/p/clouded-judgement-12123-net-new-arr https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1732217863975641389 https://ohalogenetics.com https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4pX1VAxaAI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5tRc_5-8G4 https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai https://twitter.com/chamath/status/1732482646419403077 https://www.figma.com/templates https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/656f3c941104cf000dfa7563/Provisional_findings_report_3.pdf #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostDavid FriedberghostChamath Palihapitiyahost
Dec 7, 20231h 32mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

All-In dissect Ivy antisemitism uproar, economy vibes, SaaS and AI

  1. The episode opens with a long discussion of the congressional hearings on antisemitism at Ivy League schools, criticizing university leaders’ free-speech double standards and the influence of woke identity politics on campus culture and donor backlash.
  2. They then examine the U.S. economy’s mixed signals: solid macro data and asset rallies contrasted with persistent inflation fatigue, rising consumer debt, and sharply partisan perceptions of economic conditions.
  3. The group declares an end to a “software recession,” analyzes the reset in SaaS and startup valuations, and debates how ZIRP-era overfunding fragmented talent while current conditions create a strong vintage for new companies.
  4. They close by reacting to Google’s Gemini AI launch as a major competitive move, worrying about regulators stalling Adobe–Figma on speculative antitrust theories, and highlighting Friedberg’s decision to become CEO of a gene-editing agtech moonshot.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

University free-speech standards appear selectively applied, eroding trust.

The hosts argue Ivy presidents suddenly invoking maximalist free speech for anti-Israel chants contradicts years of speech policing on other topics, suggesting Jews are being treated as an “oppressor” class under campus identity frameworks.

Donor pressure is likely to drive leadership and policy changes at elite universities.

They expect at least one Ivy president to lose their job and foresee applicants and parents actively reconsidering these schools, with large donors using funding leverage to demand moral clarity and institutional reform.

Many Americans feel poorer despite positive headline economic data.

While GDP, employment, and wages look strong and markets are rallying, sustained price level increases have outpaced working-class wage growth over several years, producing “sticker shock” and partisan narratives about a bad economy.

The software and SaaS slowdown is bottoming, but valuations remain structurally lower.

They see net new ARR in public SaaS finally turning positive after a year of contraction, yet expect multiples to stay closer to long-term averages and private equity comps (often 1–5x ARR) rather than ZIRP-era highs.

Overfunding during ZIRP fragmented talent; now is better for either founding or joining winners.

Bubbly conditions pushed many mid-level stars to start under-governed, unfocused startups; the hosts argue today is ideal either for truly exceptional founding teams or for ambitious operators to join early but real “rocket ships.”

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

These should not be debatable difficult moral questions. The places where you send our 18- and 19-year-old kids cannot, at a very simple level, teach the moral clarity to say supporting even the concept of genocide is wrong.

Chamath Palihapitiya

A lot of Jewish people are realizing that they don’t have a home on the left anymore… In the minds of woke ideology, Jews are just successful white people with too much power.

David Sacks

Unless you’re willing to look at the raw data, the risk is high that you will be fed an emotional perspective that amplifies your bias.

Chamath Palihapitiya

We’ve been in a software recession… but I’m calling an end to the software recession.

David Sacks

There’s been this criticism in Silicon Valley that we do too much of the easy stuff. The challenge isn’t capital or ideas, it’s a dearth of talent willing to take on very hard, low-probability problems.

David Friedberg

Congressional hearings on antisemitism and free speech at Harvard, Penn, MITWoke identity politics, Jewish identity on the left, and donor backlashPublic perception of the U.S. economy versus macro data and inflationEnd of the “software recession,” SaaS valuation resets, and PE exit dynamicsFounder talent allocation, ZIRP-era overfunding, and optimal career pathsGoogle Gemini’s launch, AI commoditization, and search monetization risksAdobe–Figma deal delays, UK CMA antitrust strategy, and M&A chilling effectsFriedberg’s new role as CEO of a multiplex gene-editing agriculture startup

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