E25: Biden's vaccine mandate, "equity" in distribution, NFT speculation, impact of inflation & more

1. 0:00 – 11:00

   Biden's vaccine mandate, California's mishandling of the vaccine rollout, cancel culture impacting vaccine distribution

   1. JCJason Calacanis0:00

      Does anybody have any thoughts on this? (Trombone music plays)

   2. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:03

      I mean, I think it's incredible, um-

   3. NANarrator0:05

      (dog barks)

   4. JCJason Calacanis0:05

      ... where you'll be-

   5. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:08

      So does Friedberg's dog. (laughs)

   6. DFDavid Friedberg0:10

      Going all in.

   7. DSDavid Sachs0:11

      Let your winners ride.

   8. DFDavid Friedberg0:14

      Rain Man, David Sachs.

   9. I'm going all in.

   10. And I said-

   11. DSDavid Sachs0:19

       We open sourced it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it.

   12. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:22

       Love you, man. Hi.

   13. DFDavid Friedberg0:23

       Queen of Quinoa.

   14. I'm going all in.

   15. JCJason Calacanis0:27

       Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody welcome to another episode of the All In Podcast. It's been a week, it's been a minute. With us today, of course, the Queen of Quinoa, David Friedberg and the Rain Man himself, calling in from a non-descript mansion in one of 17 cities-

   16. CPChamath Palihapitiya0:44

       (laughs)

   17. JCJason Calacanis0:44

       ... the Rain Man himself, David Sachs.

   18. DFDavid Friedberg0:47

       (laughs)

   19. JCJason Calacanis0:47

       And cackling like a dictator who got his two billy back and he's back in the game, Chamath Palihapitiya, for those of you-

   20. DSDavid Sachs0:57

       He's re- he's re-billionized.

   21. JCJason Calacanis0:59

       He re-billionized?

   22. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:00

       (laughs)

   23. JCJason Calacanis1:01

       Is he gonna get a car with doors that go like this?

   24. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03

       Doors that go like this-

   25. JCJason Calacanis1:04

       Doors that go like this. (laughs)

   26. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:06

       ... doors that go like this. (laughs)

   27. DFDavid Friedberg1:06

       (laughs)

   28. JCJason Calacanis1:07

       Let's talk a little bit about the vaccine. Biden says everybody w- who's an adult is qualified by May 1st. He's instructed the states to do that. We are now hitting, uh, two-point-x million a day. We had a three million shot day, I believe, Friedberg. And, uh, obviously the $1.9 billion COVID/uh, everybody gets a big slice, uh, bill got passed.

   29. DFDavid Friedberg1:31

       1.9 trillion, with a T.

   30. JCJason Calacanis1:32

       Sorry, that's what I said, 1.9 trillion.
2. 11:00 – 19:24

   Vaccine efficacy, "inequity" of distribution

   1. CPChamath Palihapitiya11:00

      I just have a quick science question because I, I was trying to find the answer to this, but I, I would love for you to tell us. What is the real efficacy of the vaccine and what is your transmitability? Like, your, your carrier status once you've gotten... For example, like, you know, let's just say you take the, the Pfizer vaccine, right?

   2. DFDavid Friedberg11:20

      Yeah.

   3. CPChamath Palihapitiya11:20

      Um, if you get the Pfizer vaccine, how many days until this is, like, pretty good and, you know, h- like, what is really the risk profile between the first shot and the second shot?

   4. DFDavid Friedberg11:31

      I'll share this link and then we can post it on the, um-

   5. CPChamath Palihapitiya11:35

      Show notes.

   6. DFDavid Friedberg11:35

      ... uh, on the, uh, on the show notes and people can take a look at it, but it's an excellent paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine showing basically a population of unvaccinated against Pfizer-vaccinated with half a million in each population. Half a million people.

   7. Yeah. Day eight.

   8. And, um, yeah. And they showed basically the accumulated infection rate, severe hospitalization rate, and death rate, um, of each of the two populations over time, and that really kind of, I think, highlights the efficacy of the vaccines and at what t- time period they become efficacious on each of those metrics. And by the way, even after the first dose, across a population of half a million people, the margin of error on death-

   9. JCJason Calacanis12:13

      ... um, shows that there may even be complete protection against death after the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, uh, within seven days of getting that shot. Pretty powerful statistic. Um-

   10. What... Just to describe the chart for those people listening, you have two populations, and one's in blue, one's in red. And it's, the time is, you know, in days on the bottom axis. And when you get to day eight, one line goes sideways, and the other one goes sh- keeps going straight up. So it's day eight after the Pfizer that you're basically protected, according to this chart. Um, and that's on the first shot. And like, I think it adds, like, one or two cases.

   11. Yeah, that's right.

   12. But there have been zero deaths. So I think day eight is the day, and the second dose seems like, to me, you know, it's just this unbelievable extra. Uh, another amazing chart, which maybe we can jump into show notes, is what's happening in San Francisco. We hit 10,000 shots a day at the end of February, March 1st. We're doing now 2,000 shots a day. So we literally have dropped 70% or so, we're at 3,000 shots, I think, from the peak.

   13. Yeah.

   14. So this crazy wokeness is resulting in, you know, in this, this virtue signaling that, you know, "Oh, we can't give any shots to anybody unless we get this group first or that group first," is now leading to everybody hacking the system. The hack that I've heard is, since teachers are getting it, childcare people and food service people are getting it, people are now starting to get jobs at DoorDash or saying they're a teacher, and if you check that box, according to, you know, the back channel that I've heard, you go get the shot. And you don't get... They don't ask you for anything-

   15. By the way, they, they're, they're not checking.

   16. ... other than your driver's license.

   17. No one's checking.

   18. It's just a driver's license. Yeah.

   19. The pharmacies, the grocery stores, the mass vax sites, the SF DPH, California DPH administered sites, the federal sites, no one's checking. You sign up, you check a box on the website, it says, "I attest that this is true," and then you go and show your ID and get your shot. And so, a lot of people have kind of initially started skirting around the rules by going to be a DoorDash driver for a day or what have you, and then saying, "I'm a food and ag worker." And then now, generally, people, I think, are just clicking on the box and going in and getting a shot. Now, the, sorry, the... Just to go back on the previous question, Chamath, I, I shared it. Figure 2, uh, Nick, in this, uh, paper I shared, particularly Box E, shows the deaths due to COVID-19 of a vaccinated population and non-vaccinated population, and then it shows documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. And you'll see that you basically have almost no incremental infections in the vaccinated population, starting around 28 days after your first dose. And so, you know, that's really when you could say you've got, you know, really good kind of protection from the vaccine, and you're already starting to get the benefits early on. Antibody studies have also shown that there's this big jump up that happens around that period of time. Um, and so, call it three weeks after your first shot, and then, in particular, the fourth week, uh, you're really kind of like locked in with a, uh, a protective, um, you know, capacity. Now, your question around transmissibility is one that's still being studied, which is, if I've got a vaccine, am I gonna be able to pick up the virus and transmit it to someone else? Um, right now, you know, they're saying, "Well, we don't have evidence one way or the other," but, I mean, generally, the way that the virus is spread is you develop an infection in your body, your body then makes lots of copies of the virus, and then you cough and spit them out in the air, and that's how people get it. So theoretically, you could carry some virus on your mouth or on your nose where those cells don't have immunoprotectiveness and, you know, the vaccine, the virus is still alive, but it's not spreading in your body. You're not creating a lot of superfluous virus to s- to spread in, in the world. Yeah.

   20. So, you know, the, the basic science of it is, you should not be spreading COVID if you've been vaccinated, right? I mean, you may have some on your skin or in your nose or something for a short period of time, but you're not gonna develop a systemic infection that you're then gonna kind of start exerting everywhere. Um, so I think we should-

   21. Yeah.

   22. ... we, we should, we should start to transition to this world of feeling really good and safe and enjoying ourselves. Yeah.

   23. Mm-hmm.

   24. We hit 500,000 shots a day, sacs, in California, and now we're down to 150,000. We've literally gone down two thirds-

   25. It should just be-

   26. ... under the management-

   27. Yeah.

   28. ... of Governor Hair Gel. It's unbelievable.

   29. Yeah, I mean, look, 'cause, because, you know, and, and what was his, in his state of the s- the state speech, which went over like a lead balloon, hi- the, the, the most notable quote was, "We're not going back to normal. Normal was never good enough. Normal accepts inequity." So because there might be some inequity in the world, around the wrong person in line getting these doses, we're never going back to normal. And he's basically ensuring that result by taking forever with these vaccines. But let me, let me, um, let me go back to, to, to this point about, um, efficacy. So I think Friedberg gave the stats on... Look, the bottom line here is that vaccines work. That is the message we should be getting out to people, is that they work. And the thing I've been really surprised by, in the reactions that I'm seeing to my own tweets on Twitter about this, is how loud the anti-vax voices are, and how loud and sort of-

   30. When you say anti-vax, you, you don't mean not take the vaccine. You mean the vaccine doesn't work and we're never getting rid of COVID.
3. 19:24 – 33:38

   Success vs. privilege, Meghan Markle vs. The Royal Family

   1. DSDavid Sachs19:24

      that's a great point, um, around the language that gets used, and I have a similar, uh, concern about the way that the word privilege gets used. We used to have a term in this country called success.

   2. CPChamath Palihapitiya19:34

      Yeah.

   3. DSDavid Sachs19:34

      You know, people were successful or not, and, you know, success had a connotation of being earned, whereas privilege has a connotation of being unearned. Well, I mean, now sometimes privilege is earned success and sometimes it's unearned and, you know, but, but when you start using the word privilege to describe all success, it implies that there's something, you know, unjust or unearned about it and it needs to be reallocated. So, you know, I, th- that to me is another one of these political words is, we shouldn't be confusing success with privilege.

   4. CPChamath Palihapitiya20:03

      Yeah.

   5. DSDavid Sachs20:04

      They're two very different things.

   6. CPChamath Palihapitiya20:05

      I have an example of this. Oprah Winfrey is successful. Prince Henry is... (laughs) has privilege.

   7. DSDavid Sachs20:12

      (laughs) Has privilege.

   8. CPChamath Palihapitiya20:13

      Has privilege. I shoehorned-

   9. DSDavid Sachs20:15

      Right.

   10. CPChamath Palihapitiya20:15

       ... the, uh, Meghan Markle story finally here.

   11. The, uh, I- I mean, I do wanna talk about the Meghan Markle story actually at some point before the end-

   12. DSDavid Sachs20:21

       Yeah.

   13. CPChamath Palihapitiya20:21

       ... of this podcast. But before we do that-

   14. DSDavid Sachs20:23

       Let's do it right now. Yeah.

   15. CPChamath Palihapitiya20:23

       Uh, okay, uh, uh, Joe Lonsdale actually also had a tweet, um, a pretty unapologetic-

   16. Oh, yeah.

   17. ... set of tweets around, you know, the miscasting of this, this concept of privilege and I thought it was really on point. I really agreed with what he was saying. And it's effectively what you're saying, David. It's like, people right now, I find, are just so... Well, not, not people. The people that take the time to wallow in Twitter, um, mostly, at least as I interact with them, um, are just so bitter. And I think that there is no, um, magnanimous happiness for other people's success anymore. It p- it... I think, I think, like, we live in a culture now where everybody feels it is so zero sum when it's not, in fact, zero sum. Um, and people just begrudge other people's success, especially, by the way, when it's earned. And the reason is because there's an entire generation of people of all different ages and, you know, but this, this last five or 10 years, who tapped themselves out. Now, some were legitimately prevented from success, but there's a lot of people that bought into this narrative of, "Well, it's a whole conspiracy that's set up against me, so I'm not even gonna try." And they are often the loudest and the most embittered.

   18. Absolutely. Yeah.

   19. Um, and, and the reason is because, you know, everybody wakes up in their 40s and 50s and starts to rationalize their choices and their lives, and what they really feel deep down inside is, "Oh my God. I just let an entire decade go by of blaming other people." And I, and I think there's-

   20. DSDavid Sachs21:54

       Yeah, it's a surprisingly large amount of that. This ideology of victimization doesn't teach people the right things because you start to think that, you know, if you're wallowing in your oppression, then you don't have agency over your own life, you're blaming other people for not being successful and not getting ahead when what you should be doing is focusing on working and improving your own life and getting ahead. And so it's like-

   21. CPChamath Palihapitiya22:14

       Or also just redefining what happiness means. Happiness doesn't mean what that other person has and then saying, "Because I don't have that, I have nothing." Happiness is really, like, introspectively figuring out, like, what really makes you complete. And I mean, not to get too syrupy about it, but it's like, that's what we've also lost the script on. So when you, when you put all of these things together, there's just a bunch of people that sit on the sidelines. They either are too scared to enter the arena or they don't want to enter the arena. They don't want the failure that comes from it, because they've grown up in a culture where, you know, they had the kindergarten soccer ball handed to them, the gold star in everything they've ever done.

   22. Participation trophy.

   23. Um, and now what we really need are people in the arena more than ever. Folks trying and failing-

   24. Solving the problem.

   25. ... and it's okay. And there's just not enough of them. What instead is, there's just a lot of people who just wanna bitch and complain.

   26. DSDavid Sachs23:05

       And I think this is the backlash to the Meghan Markle interview is, is that this miscasting, that this is an extremely privileged person, or, you know, Harry and Meghan both are very privileged, and, but, but I think what they're trying to do by making all these sort of accusations of racism against their own family is they're trying to ground that privilege in victim status. And, and this is the thing about privilege, is privilege is a social concept. It's got nothing to do with, with success, which is either earned or unearned. And so the way that people get, uh, to maintain their privilege is, is they, again, they ground it in some sort of a victimization. Um, it's, it creates these very perverse incentives.

   27. CPChamath Palihapitiya23:44

       My reaction to the Meghan Markle, uh, Prince Harry interview was the following. I had a lot of, um, sympathy, uh, for, um, what she was saying. Um, but on the other side, I also thought, "You must have known what you were getting into on the way in." And there was, it was be... And now, and look, I'll say this as a Canadian and a Sri Lankan. So the queen and the monarchy is an increa... Like, it's, I can't describe to you guys 'cause you're not part of the Commonwealth, but it is just a, a definitional, definitional part of who we are as we grow up.And I don't know what the equivalent American construct is. I guess there isn't one, really. Um, and so, you know, the monarchy is an incredibly important thing. But we all know that it's this kind of, like, anachronistic thing-

   28. JCJason Calacanis24:35

       It's bullshit.

   29. CPChamath Palihapitiya24:35

       ... that just kind of... Uh, I don't, look, for us it's not bullshit. Like, I mean, like, if you said to me, "Despite all my bullshit and raging-"

   30. JCJason Calacanis24:41

       Yeah.
4. 33:38 – 48:00

   NFTs, speculative markets, blockchain as a ledger

   1. JCJason Calacanis33:38

      there's so much money in the system that an NFT just sold for $69 million after we talked about the previous one Bill Lee bought for $6 million. I don't know that he bought it for $6 million but somebody bought one last week. NFTs seem like a real thing, it's reasonable to trade stuff but $69 million for a-

   2. CPChamath Palihapitiya33:55

      I, I've, I think, I think it's incredible. I mean like, like the, the, I saw the breakdown of like the number of bidders. Here let me actually just get this, uh, data up because I think you guys will find it really incredible.

   3. JCJason Calacanis34:05

      My thesis on this, or my theory rather is, um, that there are a bunch of people who have stakes in these crypto assets and then they all premeditate, decide to buy up these NFTs to get the market started and then once it's started-

   4. CPChamath Palihapitiya34:22

      But Jason, that's, honestly, Jason-

   5. JCJason Calacanis34:23

      ... like, you know, other people do with art, right? That's what people do in the real art world.

   6. CPChamath Palihapitiya34:25

      Look, you know, you know this, but I've been buying art for a decade plus and-

   7. JCJason Calacanis34:28

      Yeah.

   8. CPChamath Palihapitiya34:28

      ... this is exactly how it works in the art market. You know, we go in there, certain people will go and buy, and then what the gallerist says is, "Oh, did you know that Chamath just bought this piece?" Or such and-

   9. JCJason Calacanis34:38

      Yes.

   10. CPChamath Palihapitiya34:38

       ... such a person bought this other piece and then all of a sudden the price spins up and then they feed into it. I mean, this is where, you know, an enormous amount of money has been made by gallerists over the last 20 or 30 years. Now it just happens in a different medium. So the, the bidding breakdown, by the way, of this NFT is incredible. 33 active bidders, 91% of the bidders were new to Christie's, 55% came from the Americas, 27% of bidders were from Europe and 18% were in Asia. The age breakdown is the most interesting. 6% were Gen Z, so '97 to 2012, 58% of bidders were Millennials, ninet- born between '81 and '96.

   11. JCJason Calacanis35:16

       Wow.

   12. CPChamath Palihapitiya35:17

       33% Gen Xers and 3% Baby Boomers so this is really like a transitional change in, you know, basically deciding what's valuable. And I don't think this, I don't think this was any different than, you know, when you had this transition from, you know, sort of impressionist in the art world. Like if you moved from the body of work where, you know, these impressionist paintings were just going for high tens, low hundreds of millions of dollars and I think it peaked around Van Gogh, um, and then, you know, basically it went from there off of a cliff where you can basically give away impressionist paintings, uh, and everything went to contemporary and, you know, sort of like this post-modern stuff. And that was a decisional change by Boomers and-

   13. DSDavid Sachs35:56

       What does, what does giveaway mean to you, Chamath? (laughs)

   14. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:00

       (laughs) Hey, you know, tens of millions.

   15. JCJason Calacanis36:02

       (laughs) Yeah.

   16. DSDavid Sachs36:04

       (laughs)

   17. JCJason Calacanis36:04

       Oh, God. Oh my Lord. (laughs)

   18. DSDavid Sachs36:04

       So, okay, look, I, I, so I think on, on the NFT stuff an- and, and, and Beeple, he's, Beeple is the artist, there's two things going on, right? So one is, on a technology level, NFTs, non-fungible tokens, they're, they are, it's a legitimate technology for creating provenance on a blockchain. You know, if a piece of art, um, basically gets put on a blockchain, you have perfect provenance but that doesn't mean that all NFTs are valuable. In fact, most of them won't be. It's just a technology. Then you have the other thing that's happening is on an art level what these sort of, um, these sort of prestige galleries and so on, they're saying that Beeple is now a major artist-And there's... And, and the reason someone becomes a major artist is because they usher in like an- or become representative of some new wave of art, like Chamath is saying. You've got impressionism, you've got modernism. I mean, the reason why Jackson Pollock sells for, whatever, $100 million-

   19. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:57

       No, no, no.

   20. DSDavid Sachs36:58

       Is that-

   21. CPChamath Palihapitiya36:58

       Three- $300 to $600.

   22. DSDavid Sachs36:59

       Three- Okay. It's because he represents an important wave in art and some of those waves fizzle out and they turn into Ponzi schemes and some of them become real. And people are speculating that this digital art will be a major wave and they're saying that Beeple is the most important artist and they're kind of betting on that. Now, do I think it's gonna last? Um, I don't know. I mean, ha- hard, hard to say. Probably-

   23. CPChamath Palihapitiya37:21

       You said that... No, you said the key thing though. The key-

   24. DSDavid Sachs37:23

       Mm-hmm.

   25. CPChamath Palihapitiya37:23

       ... feature of NFTs, which I think is amazing, is that you can actually have ownership and provenance written into a blockchain. Now you take that abstraction, you can apply it to all kinds of surface areas and it makes a ton of sense. Any kind of other asset would make sense. If you own a car, if you own clothes, if you own watches, if you own wine. Um, what happens if you own a house? Now all of a sudden if you can prove ownership over this stuff, not only can you trade it, but you can also borrow against it. And I think that that is a really interesting idea where once you financialize all of these physical assets that we own, you do eliminate an enormous amount of inequality- (laughs)

   26. JCJason Calacanis38:02

       Oh. Oh.

   27. CPChamath Palihapitiya38:02

       (laughs)

   28. DSDavid Sachs38:02

       Yeah.

   29. CPChamath Palihapitiya38:02

       ... in the system because you can actually get real transparent pricing. Like now could you-

   30. DSDavid Sachs38:06

       Yeah. Blockblockchain's blockchains are a ledger, right? They're a perfect ledger system. And so e- like everything... Uh, every type of possession that relies on title should eventually be blockchained.
5. 48:00 – 1:01:20

   Impact of inflation on wealth inequality

   1. DFDavid Friedberg48:00

      with the stimulus bill and where we started, which was, is this even necessary? Um, we have, uh, stimulus checks going out in the amount of $2,000 per individual in households with under 150K, I believe is, um, the income level, which means people who were not impacted by financially in any way by what's happened under COVID are gonna get, in a family of five, $10,000 checks. Uh, even if nobody was laid off or there was-

   2. DSDavid Sachs48:27

      But that's only, that's only like 9% of the bill, Jason.

   3. DFDavid Friedberg48:31

      I, yeah. I- I mean, so it's, that's not a great-

   4. CPChamath Palihapitiya48:33

      It was 400... It was 450 million out of 1.9 trillion. Um-

   5. DFDavid Friedberg48:36

      So what do we think the impac- we sort of have two questions.

   6. CPChamath Palihapitiya48:38

      I have a working theory. Oh, sorry. Go ahead, Jason.

   7. DFDavid Friedberg48:40

      What are your general thoughts on this? Is it necessary? And then two, what's the, what, what are the second order effects that we each predict will happen over the next 18 months when all of this capital gets injected?

   8. CPChamath Palihapitiya48:52

      So the, the latter is what I've been focused on trying to figure out. And I saw some really interesting data, which basically, I'll ask you guys the question 'cause maybe you guys know the answer, but-If you measure wealth and equality, when do you guys think was the most recent period where there was the least wealth and equality? The least.

   9. DFDavid Friedberg49:12

      Uh, well, sorry, how do you define that?

   10. CPChamath Palihapitiya49:15

       Uh, you can measure it like the GINI index or you can measure it as, like, you know, the, the gap between the te- top decile and the bottom decile, in terms of, uh, wealth and accumulated assets.

   11. DFDavid Friedberg49:25

       Well, would it be before the robber barons?

   12. CPChamath Palihapitiya49:27

       No. It was the, the, the period-

   13. DFDavid Friedberg49:28

       Or between the robber barons and now?

   14. CPChamath Palihapitiya49:30

       The period of the least inequality in m- in recent history was in the late '70s, which is an incredible stat to say where, like, the gap between the top decile and the bottom decile was, like, you know, kind of like on, on an index, like, 60, 65, whereas today it's sort of, like, at 100.

   15. DFDavid Friedberg49:46

       Oh.

   16. CPChamath Palihapitiya49:46

       Um, now what happened then? And it's... This is really interesting.

   17. DFDavid Friedberg49:51

       Wasn't that an inflationary period?

   18. CPChamath Palihapitiya49:53

       There you go. So what happened? And a- as it turns out, inflation is a phenomenal way to decrease-

   19. DFDavid Friedberg50:00

       Levels the playing field.

   20. CPChamath Palihapitiya50:01

       Absolutely. It decreases-

   21. DFDavid Friedberg50:03

       Yeah.

   22. CPChamath Palihapitiya50:03

       ... people's richness. So it makes rich people poorer. That's really the most effective tool that you have to recalibrate. It's very, very hard to redistribute money and I think every attempt at doing that has largely failed. But the one consistent way, and if you go back periods before that, you know, into the beginning of the-

   23. DFDavid Friedberg50:22

       But, uh, in an inflationary environment, borrowing costs go up, so, you know, businesses and people that rely on borrowing to grow their net worth, or investing assets to grow their net worth, kind of suffer more than people that what? Have a home, have a... You know, w- wages go up in an inflationary environment, right? So when-

   24. CPChamath Palihapitiya50:37

       Wages go up, which, which actually-

   25. DFDavid Friedberg50:39

       Yeah.

   26. CPChamath Palihapitiya50:39

       ... if you think about, like, uh, what you said before, like, you know, a- as people get wealthier, they, they move their money into, you know, essentially, financial assets and away from sort of, like, working assets. And when, you know, interest rates go up and the, the risk-free rate goes up, then the attractiveness of those assets go down.

   27. DFDavid Friedberg50:55

       Yeah.

   28. CPChamath Palihapitiya50:55

       And so what happens is shares in technology companies go down. But what a- what actually also happens is that you, your cost of capital for a traditional business, because it's higher, they have to then charge more, which means that they're paying their employees more. And those folks, um, on a marginal basis, tend to then, you know, take those dollars and spend those dollars. So inflation is this very productive mechanism of actually redistributing wealth. And actually-

   29. DFDavid Friedberg51:21

       And home- homeowners benefit.

   30. CPChamath Palihapitiya51:23

       Homeowners benefit as well.
6. 1:01:20 – 1:07:46

   SPAC/Direct Listing talk

   1. JCJason Calacanis1:01:20

      All right, as we wrap here, lot of SPACs going out. We obviously saw, um, another, I guess, Roblox was a direct listing. Um, just curious what you-

   2. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:29

      Only, only underpriced by 50%. (laughs)

   3. JCJason Calacanis1:01:32

      Oof. Oops.

   4. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:32

      It's the same, same problem as the IPO, but just with a-

   5. JCJason Calacanis1:01:35

      So, so, but basically what you're saying is Bill Gurley's on his headset walking around El Camino Real-

   6. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:41

      No, what I'm, what I'm saying is-

   7. JCJason Calacanis1:01:43

      ... calling journalists? (laughs)

   8. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:43

      What, what I'm saying is, uh, irrespective of what the, the goals of the direct listing were, the result is the same as a traditional IPO.

   9. JCJason Calacanis1:01:51

      There you go. Um, well, let's, let's get to the market life. Yeah.

   10. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:53

       Can I, can I give a shout-out actually to a company that David Sacks, um-

   11. JCJason Calacanis1:01:56

       Sure. Oh, Pipe?

   12. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:01:59

       Yes.

   13. JCJason Calacanis1:02:00

       Congrats.

   14. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:02:00

       Which is a, an incredible company that basically, like helps you capitalize your contracts with your customers. And it's this, it's this, basically this incredible thing that I'm seeing and it's... And there's a couple of others that do it as well. Um, Clearbanc is another one. But you can fund your company non-dilutively. And, uh, at some point, I think we should actually talk about the state of the union in venture. Maybe we can do that in a couple of next episodes. I have a lot of thoughts on where I think venture capital is going. And when I see things like Pipe, I'm just like completely so happy 'cause I just think it, it's, uh, it's, it's con- it's gonna change the, the, the way in which venture investing is done. It's gonna-

   15. JCJason Calacanis1:02:36

       It's a, it's a very brilliant idea. You can go to pipe.com/twist to get 12 months free. Um, pipe.com (laughs) is a two-sided marketplace. If you have reoccurring SaaS revenue or any kind of reoccurring revenue... Somebody did it with a SubStack. So I think Pompliano, the guy who pumps, uh, Bitcoin, he has a newsletter that makes, whatever, quarter million dollars a year. Um, he sold, uh, for 95 cents on the dollar his forward-looking subscriptions for the year and bought Bitcoin with it when it was at 35. (laughs) So he's like doubling down. But if you're a SaaS company, and we have many of them in our portfolios, you could take all of your monthly contracts, sell them on the marketplace to somebody else. Not Pipe. Pipe doesn't buy it. It's some other financial person who says, "I'll give you 94 cents on the dollar. I'll give you 92 cents on the dollar. I'll give you 85 cents on the dollar." And so if you're... if you have a $10 million book of business paying monthly, you can get that 10 million now and deploy it-

   16. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03:33

       But Jason, I think, I think-

   17. JCJason Calacanis1:03:35

       ... to acquire more customers. It's brilliant. Brilliant.

   18. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03:35

       ... this is a good, this is a good maybe way to end, but I think let's agree that the next pod... Let's tal- let's start with the future-

   19. JCJason Calacanis1:03:41

       Yes.

   20. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03:41

       ... of venture capital.

   21. JCJason Calacanis1:03:42

       100%. I mean, it's changing dramatically.

   22. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:03:44

       It's changing dramatically. And I, I think these non-dilutive ways of growing a company will completely impact pricing, you know, pre-money, post-money, the amount of equity that employees can and should own in these businesses. You know, what is the value of brands? Like, you know, it, it... Like, people will know who David Sacks is, uh, who Harry Hurst is. People necessarily don't even care anymore, like, you know, hey, if I'm calling from Sequoia, what does that mean anymore? Um, they're gonna say, "Who from Sequoia is calling?" Uh, so these are all really interesting topics that I think are worth talking about.

   23. DFDavid Friedberg1:04:14

       Another path is just the public markets, you know. Right? I mean, public markets are becoming the new late stage private market. And it's really, you know, both the SPAC and early stage IPO and direct listing models are, um, are, are changing dramatically. And it's, um... And there's more speculative risk-seeking in the public markets in a way that I don't think we've ever seen. Um, and it's, uh, it's creating an opportunity for companies that are still w- w- m-... you know, what in a traditional f- um, kind of sense might be called, you know, early stage or still businesses with a lot of risk, being able to go public and, and, you know, kind of take their companies out. And let the public markets wager on, um, on how well they're gonna execute and, and how well they're gonna be able to develop their product or their market. Um, and it's... And by the way, it's something we've seen historically with biotech, where there's kind of very binary kind of bets that happen, uh, and binary outcomes because the markets are known. And you don't need to kind of productize or build a business around it. But now we're actually taking both business risk, market risk, technology risk, product risk, um, to the public markets-

   24. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:05:11

       At all stages.

   25. DFDavid Friedberg1:05:11

       ... at all stages.

   26. CPChamath Palihapitiya1:05:11

       At all stages.

   27. DFDavid Friedberg1:05:11

       And I, I think you're gonna see these, um, these scenarios where people will build public portfolios, public busi- uh, public company portfolios that will perform a lot like venture portfolios, right? You'll have one or two businesses that'll have a 10-bagger and, you know, a, a chunk-

   28. JCJason Calacanis1:05:25

       Zeroes.

   29. DFDavid Friedberg1:05:25

       ... a chunk that'll go to zero and a chunk that'll have some modest return on them. And it's gonna be... Yeah. And it's gonna be this, this tremendous learning experience, 'cause a lot of people will put all their money into one stock-

   30. JCJason Calacanis1:05:34

       Yes.
7. 1:07:46 – 1:09:58

   Yung Spielburg's newest track: RED PILLS

   1. JCJason Calacanis1:07:46

   2. DSDavid Sachs1:07:46

      (laughs)

   3. JCJason Calacanis1:07:46

      Red, red pills got me lit. Red pills got me lit. (singing) Red pills got me lit. Red pills got me lit. (singing) Red pills got me lit. Red pills got me lit. I'm ready to go. Red pills got me lit. Red, red pills got me lit. Red pills got me lit. I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... Man, I thought Arrow was good, but... (laughing) God, these Miami, Zebra Boy, Pete, Peter Chino, Stamford red pills got me lit. I'm ready to go. Woo! Balance. I'm ready to go. All right, anybody give a shit about NFTs? Yup. I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but... I've been on a bender on these red pills, but...

Episode duration: 1:09:58