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E39: West coast super drought & climate crisis, Nuclear virtue signaling, chaos in SF & more

Show Notes: 0:00 Super drought & climate crisis on the west coast 25:53 Nuclear energy, virtue signaling, cognitive laziness, positive signals of optimism 36:50 Friedberg's "anti-science" theory 44:48 San Francisco chaos, "crime is down" controversy, viral crime videos 59:42 Are Israel's recent COVID vaccine findings problematic? Follow the besties: https://twitter.com/chamath https://linktr.ee/calacanis https://twitter.com/DavidSacks https://twitter.com/friedberg Follow the pod: https://twitter.com/theallinpod https://linktr.ee/allinpodcast Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://twitter.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://twitter.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: Nuclear energy timeline https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GSIb-vyIvZalcE9LCBFqbQjsvE4uu-c-/view?usp=sharing The Grid: The Fraying Wires Between Americans and Our Energy Future https://www.amazon.com/Grid-Fraying-Between-Americans-Energy-ebook/dp/B01DM9Q6CQ CapRadio - Newsom Misled The Public About Wildfire Prevention Efforts Ahead Of Worst Fire Season On Record https://www.capradio.org/articles/2021/06/23/newsom-misled-the-public-about-wildfire-prevention-efforts-ahead-of-worst-fire-season-on-record/ MarketWatch - Target shortens hours in San Francisco due to ‘alarming rise’ in shoplifting https://www.marketwatch.com/story/target-shortens-hours-in-san-francisco-due-to-alarming-rise-in-shoplifting-11625688560 Israel Ministry of Health - Decline in Vaccine Effectiveness Against Infection and Symptomatic Illness https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news/05072021-03 Tweets: https://twitter.com/friedberg/status/1413044148735672322 https://twitter.com/michelletandler/status/1411362359734542343 https://twitter.com/michelletandler/status/1411943649231851522 https://twitter.com/cyantist/status/1412478525014085632 https://twitter.com/briansugar/status/1412507632267534340 https://twitter.com/activeasian/status/1412252070829182976 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1412160046046203909 https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1412163715676327950 https://twitter.com/ThomasSowell/status/1412858750747217922 https://twitter.com/robkhenderson/status/1412899033933307911 https://twitter.com/sfchronicle/status/1409170317826793474 https://twitter.com/briansugar/status/1412507632267534340 #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid Friedberghost
Jul 9, 20211h 10mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:0025:53

    Super drought & climate crisis on the west coast

    1. JC

      What did your doctor give you to make you lose all this weight? What did- what is your celebrity doctor giving you? Tell the truth. Did you get that new shot?

    2. CP

      No, it's like, people- people on Twitter are like, "Your- your Twitter account's sounding a lot more like Jake account." And I'm like-

    3. JC

      (laughs)

    4. CP

      ... "I think we're on the s- I think we're on the same diet. I think that's what's going on here."

    5. DS

      (laughs)

    6. NA

      (instrumental music plays) In three, two- Let your winners ride. Rainman, David Sacks. And they said we open sourced it to the fans and they have just gone crazy with it. Love you guys. Queen of Quinoa. Hey, everybody. Hey, everybody. Welcome to another episode of The All-In Pod. With us today, of course, the Queen of Quinoa.

    7. CP

      (laughs)

    8. JC

      And from his castle in Italy (laughs) , the cackling, uh, dictator, Chamath Palihapitiya, nice gardenias, and back from his big, big battle, his brawl, unblocked and undefeated, the Rainman himself, David Sacks.

    9. CP

      And judging by the comments, uh, I'd say dominant.

    10. JC

      Oh, you read the comments?

    11. CP

      (laughs)

    12. JC

      That's just another sign of your obsession-

    13. CP

      Oh, like you don't.

    14. JC

      ... with how you're perceived.

    15. CP

      Like you don't. Like you don't.

    16. JC

      Don't even. I never read the comments.

    17. CP

      Don't pretend. Don't pretend.

    18. JC

      Rule number one, don't read the comments. We're not doing it again.

    19. CP

      Well, it shows. It shows because you're not listening to the comments, so it makes sense.

    20. JC

      Oh, okay. Go ahead. And- and- and you got your whole troll army?

    21. CP

      But look, we have, we have-

    22. JC

      How many people have you hired on your social media team-

    23. CP

      (laughs)

    24. JC

      ... to troll me from anonymous accounts on Twitter now to prove your points?

    25. CP

      Now you're paranoid too?

    26. JC

      I'm- I'm not gonna-

    27. CP

      Don't be paranoid. Don't be paranoid. Anyway, look-

    28. JC

      All right, he's not gonna let me.

    29. CP

      ... we've patched things up.

    30. JC

      It's patched up.

  2. 25:5336:50

    Nuclear energy, virtue signaling, cognitive laziness, positive signals of optimism

    1. JC

      Trump but Chamath, talk to us about nuclear and what we can do to get, to reverse what these hippy-dippy, well-intentioned, no-nukes concert set us back 50 years and, let's be honest, a lot of the climate change problems we have today, we would not have if we had invested in nuclear.

    2. DS

      Yeah. I, I sent around-

    3. JC

      It's infuriating.

    4. DS

      Well, I sent around an image. Uh, Nick, maybe you can s- stick it in the show notes or something so that people can see it. But if you, if you look at, if you graph the construction of nuclear reactors from like the-

    5. JC

      Oh, this is a great image, yeah.

    6. DS

      ... 1960s, 1960s to today, essentially what... And you color code them by country. What essentially you see is, uh, a transition from the able, from the... frankly, from countries that basically were just right at the, at leading the pack and it was really the United States. Building, building, building and then two things really happened. There was Three Mile Island and then there was Chernobyl. And there was an incredible overreaction to not really understanding either the cause and/or the remediation to two events. Now, could you imagine if there were two airlines that crashed and we stopped flying? How, basically, we would have, you know, retarded the progress of the world? And now you impose it on something like nuclear energy, which has consistently proven to provide an enormously abundant, cheap, and clean form of sustainable energy and it actually solves a bunch of the problems we talked about before. So, for example, if you look at the power consumption for desalination, it's off the charts, quite honestly. Okay? That's why people c- say that it can't be done credibly. If you look at even just like the amount of energy that's required to clean water and to, you know, sanitize water and make it drinkable, the, the, the standards that are defined by the government are incredibly stringent, but the, the implication of it operationally is an enormous amount of power that goes into it. But Jason, you are right, which is that if we have small forms of sustainable abundant energy that can be basically hyper-localized and located where we can do these jobs, the jobs to be done, it's transformational. Now, why doesn't it happen? It doesn't happen because the same folks who really want to sound the alarm bells on climate change, which is the progressive left, are not really willing. They're intellectually lazy when it comes to nuclear. They don't do the work. They make a br- bland sort of broad-based prognostication about how we need to do something about climate, then they will point to solar and wind without really understanding the contamination of the earth that we do in order to mine the rare earths and the actual metal and mineral inputs that are required for solar. It's-

    7. JC

      Yes.

    8. DS

      ... nuts.

    9. JC

      But it sounds better-

    10. DS

      It's nuts.

    11. JC

      ... right? It sounds better.

    12. DS

      It's nuts.

    13. JC

      It's, it's better optics. Oh-

    14. DS

      Oh, the sun-

    15. JC

      ... we're using air and the air-

    16. DS

      ... the sun-

    17. JC

      ... the sun, water.

    18. DS

      ... and it's abundant.

    19. JC

      Yeah.

    20. DS

      And it's like, if I could show you what, what tailings are and like the dirty aftereffects of mining copper and nickel out of the ground, which is what we need for batteries, and how countries like Indonesia are literally dumping it into the ocean, dumping it faster than they can get their hands on it so that they can sell copper and nickel and cobalt, um, to us so that we can make batteries, you would actually say to yourself, if you knew all these facts, you'd actually say to yourself, "You know what? Maybe nuclear isn't so bad and maybe I overreacted to two incidences."

    21. JC

      If you wanna understand this, you just have to look at the laziest group of individuals in society, the French. They want to take the laziest route and do the least amount of work and have the most amount of leisure.

    22. DS

      (laughs)

    23. JC

      Sorry to our French listeners. 70% of the energy in France is from nuclear.

    24. DS

      It's nuclear, yeah.

    25. JC

      They figured this out.

    26. DS

      Yeah.

    27. JC

      They said, "How do we take more time off and not work and have unlimited electro..." 70% nuclear! They're so smart!

    28. DS

      There's a... Well, the, the, the F- the French are actually smart because after Fukushima-

    29. JC

      They're smart!

    30. DS

      ... because after Fukushima, what happened is, if you had, you know, sort of like woke politicians-

  3. 36:5044:48

    Friedberg's "anti-science" theory

    1. DF

      broadly speaking across-... uh, kind of modern culture in the United States. If you remember coming out of World War II, and I think it has its roots in the Cold War, um, you know, out of, w- when World War II ended, w- you know, we were all in it together, uh, you know this country. Everyone bought the same stuff. We all had Rice Krispies every day. We all kind of, you know, were excited about our, our, our homes that look like everyone else's home on the block. And technology was empowering all of this, right? There was a space race on. Um, there were plastics that were suddenly allowing us to make all sorts of amazing things. There were chemicals that were creating new drugs for humans and new applications for agriculture that was making an abundance of food and increasing life spans and so on. But then what happened in the late '60s and '70s is we realized we got ahead of ourselves and, um, you know, there was, uh, uh, cancer from DDT. There was, uh, you know, Three Mile Island. There was, um, a, a number of, um, pollutants that got into the environment that permanently damaged the environment from chemical companies and we started to wake up and say like, "Wait a second. All of this technology that we thought was so great and was giving us this extraordinary abundance, it turns out is really risky and can cause massive unknown consequences." And if you watch, uh, I think I talked about this on our podcast once, but one of my favorite videos to watch, there's a video on YouTube from the Disney Channel History Institute, and they show the history of Tomorrowland at Disneyland. When Tomorrowland opened in 1955, every ride was all about adventuring into space and, like, traveling into the human body, and they even had a ride from Monsanto where you would go into the micro world and look at plastics and stuff, and it was all about this amazing abundance and technology. And the guy, the, the narrator on the video says, "Beginning in the late '60s, early '70s, we changed all the rides." And the rides all became about the fear of technology. It was all about aliens attacking Earth. It was all about, um, Captain EO with, like, you know, the, the world became robotic and got taken over by unnatural things. Even Star Tours was about a robot that went awry, and the robot doesn't know what it's doing so it drove us off course and we had to survive the robot. And so everything became s- you know, subconscious or subliminally a little bit this negative technology sentiment, and I think that that still persists. You know, there is an asymmetry. People take for granted the abundance over time because you get used to it, but you feel the acute pain of the loss when technology goes awry and then that becomes the social conscience, and I think we're still grappling with that, and I, I don't know how you reverse it because-

    2. JC

      Well, you know what, Freeberg?

    3. DF

      ... people are so sensitive to this.

    4. JC

      Where ex- are we not experiencing this right now, everybody, with COVID where there's one group of people who are like, "Oh, my God. The science we were able to deploy in COVID and get through this so quickly is so promising that the world's gonna be better, net net, after the pandemic." Even with all the suffering, you could make an argument that that suffering is gonna lead to more prosperity. And there's another group of people who are like, "The Delta variant, let's get our masks back on." Uh, a- and people wanna take the cynical route on that.

    5. DF

      As a, as an individual, I don't want harm done to me or my kids or my environment. That's, that's the, I think the general kind of conscience, right? And I don't care about the abundance because I've basically taken it for granted. And so now I find myself as an individual saying, "You know what? B- we shouldn't do nuclear because look at what happened at Fukushima," forgetting the fact that you've been living off of free electricity practically for decades or whatever the, you know, the case might be.

    6. JC

      And free water.

    7. DF

      And free water and all these things.

    8. JC

      (sighs)

    9. DF

      And I think the, the, the abundance that technology delivers to humans because humans are only programmed to recognize change. They're not programmed to recognize absolutes. Uh, there's a lot of good sociopsychological and evolutionary psychology on this.

    10. JC

      Give us an example of that. Give us an example of that.

    11. DF

      Like if, you know, if you go to the store every day and you're used to just getting a $1 can of Coke, you don't say, "Oh, my God. I feel, it's an amazing world I live in. I get a $1 can of Coke." You never praise that $1 can of Coke. Now, if you went to the store and the can of Coke went up to $2, you'd be like, "What the heck? Why does Coke cost so much?" And so, um, you know, it, now, but, but, but, but here's the thing.

    12. JC

      So we habituate, we habituate to the great things in our life.

    13. DF

      If the, if the price of Coke dropped to 50 cents, you're like, "Okay, that feels good." And then you get used to the price of Coke being 50 cents, and a few weeks later, if it goes up, you're upset, but you're not as happy on the other way. So human emotion is kind of asymmetrically, you know, defined by these negative consequences, and I think over time, you accumulate these negative consequences as your core psyche and you have an aversion to doing, you know, innovative things. As a whole, not all people, but as a whole, that's how we operate, um, and it's why technology kind of gets land based over, over time.

    14. JC

      Uh, this is the most frustrating t- thing to me, Chamath, is that we have so many amazing things happening in technology and nobody will 10X or 100X on them from the, uh, government perspective or the public. I had a company called Zero Mass on my podcast which I think is now called Source, and you're aware of this company. Maybe you could talk a little bit about the impact hydropanels would make if we just embraced this technology. Well, I mean, s- Source is an incredible, incredible company. Um, basically there's a, there's a guy who runs, a Cody Friesen, who when he was at MIT, basically, um, developed a, uh, essentially a material, a membrane that can absorb the ambient, um, water that's in the atmosphere, um, and basically allow you to collect it and to separate it into its components and to basically create potable salinized or potable drinkable water in a panel that looks like a solar panel. So you put these solar arrays everywhere and out of the back you put a little pipe and it collects the humidity in the ambient air and, uh, and it spits out water. It's, it's an incredible thing and he's able to go and rewire schools and, and the thing is he can go anywhere because again, he doesn't need anything, right? You literally put it on your roof- It's incredible. ... and it makes you, if you... I think he told me at, at the time when I interviewed him two or three years ago, he said, "You could put two of these on your roof and get, like, four cases of bottled water a day no matter where you were on the planet." And by the way, he's moving to a place which is really cool. He told me this. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to say it, but I'll say it anyways. Are you saying this might be b-

    15. DS

      ... now where he's gonna-

    16. JC

      Is it a beep candidate?

    17. DS

      No, he'll have an eventual app where you can kind of direct the, the Hydropanel to make the kind of water that you like. So if you love Evian-

    18. JC

      Oh, alkaline?

    19. DS

      ... or if you love, um-

    20. JC

      Dial it in?

    21. DS

      ... Fiji water, or if you love Smart Water or, you know-

    22. JC

      You're on the Voss, right? Spec- specifically because it's the most expensive one?

    23. DS

      No, I, I love s- I love Smart Water.

    24. (laughs)

    25. I, I, I have a very gratuitous reason why. I remember (laughs) when I met Jobs, he drank Smart Water and I thought, "Mm, it's good enough for him, it's good enough for me." (laughs)

    26. JC

      I'll tell you when I knew Chamath made it.

    27. DS

      (laughs)

    28. I just gotta copy people. Like you gotta copy the good ones. And I was just like, um-

    29. JC

      This is a personal anecdote. This is when I knew Chamath made it. We used to play poker in his garage in his little 3,000 square foot Palo Alto house.

    30. DS

      Little old-

  4. 44:4859:42

    San Francisco chaos, "crime is down" controversy, viral crime videos

    1. DS

      i, the, the... It might be time for a Chesa update because we haven't done that in a while.

    2. JC

      The killer DA?

    3. DS

      The killer DA, yeah.

    4. JC

      Oh, by the way, I just want to say I found the journalist. You know the journalist, Sacks, don't say her name. And she is setting up her LLC and the $60,000 we raised from the GoFundMe is gonna go to her to cover the DA's office for the next six to 12 months in a newsletter website.

    5. DS

      Right. And just to be clear, because I think people kind of misinterpreted what you were trying to do there with the GoFundMe, J Cal.

    6. JC

      Yes.

    7. DS

      This is not for opposition research. This is not digging-

    8. JC

      No.

    9. DS

      This is not digging up dirt. This is reporting on, uh, on public policy, on pu- what should be public facts with respect to what the DA's office is doing, how Chesa is performing in his job.

    10. JC

      Isn't it interesting though how the left journalists, when I hired an investigative journalist to cover criminal justice, accused me of hiring an oppo researcher, and these are investigative journalists?

    11. DS

      Well, they told-

    12. JC

      And I told them explicitly, "I'm just hiring an investigative journalist to cover crime in San Francisco. There's no oppo research here." And they insisted on saying I wanted to get into Chesa's personal life. And I-

    13. DS

      Yeah.

    14. JC

      ... explicitly said, "That's not what this is for."

    15. DS

      Well, let's face it, there aren't too many journalists anymore who are investigative who are actually in the business of turning up new facts about elected officials. They're too busy pushing a narrative. They're engaged in agenda journalism. And actually, we saw a really good example just to tie into, to what's hap- what happened over the past week, is you had this story in the San Francisco Chronicle which is basically pure propaganda. Uh, from, you could see that the, um, the passing from Chesa to this reporter of this, this farcical s- uh, claim that crime is falling in San Francisco.

    16. JC

      (laughs)

    17. DS

      Uh, I mean, this claim is so preposterous. We, this is the same week we saw viral videos of 10 robbers bursting out of Neiman Marcus, you know, with-

    18. JC

      With every handbag.

    19. DS

      ... w- yeah, exactly. And so, you know, plus you had the viral-

    20. JC

      It was scary.

    21. DS

      Yeah. You had the viral video of the, the guy going into CVS and just, you know, it wasn't even shoplifting. He was, is-

    22. JC

      How... Did you see Brian Sugars-

    23. DS

      ... filling up Garbage bags.

    24. JC

      ... uh, video of the person who broke into his house, stole his kids' iPads and everything while they were in the house?

    25. DS

      Right. And Cyan Bannister, who had another home invasion, just tweeted-

    26. JC

      Home invasions are now, um, not prosecutable crimes in San Francisco.

    27. DS

      Well, no, what they're doing is, what Cyan reported about her case is... And by the way, her case is in the public eye, okay? So it's very brazen for the DA to be doing this. But what they did is, they dropped the home invasion charges and they're just treating it as basically a, a theft of, you know, a few hundred dollars. You know? That does not capture the violation of breaking into someone's house and how dangerous that is. But I, originally I thought, "Okay, why is the DA's office doing this?" Originally I thought, "Well, maybe it's just because, you know, Chesa doesn't want to incarcerate anybody." But it's more than that. You see, if they drop the charges down to petty larceny, then he can include it in a different stat. You see home burglaries are up by some gargantuan amount, like 50% year over year.

    28. JC

      Oh.

    29. DS

      They want to be able to claim crime is falling, and so now they're juking the stats by reducing the charges from the more serious crime to the less serious crime. And then what they do is-

    30. JC

      Wow. They're shaping the stats.

  5. 59:421:10:00

    Are Israel's recent COVID vaccine findings problematic?

    1. JC

      We gotta go.

    2. COVID, uh, Delta, people are panicking, but the numbers keep going straight down. Pfizer says... Uh, Israel says maybe Pfizer is 65% instead of 94%. 65% seems pretty great. Are we at any risk?

    3. DS

      Well, I, okay, let me jump into this, 'cause I've been affected personally by it. Um, so yeah, on the last pod, I did, I g- did give the stat, which was that, um, s- a- at that point, the, the best data we had even a week ago was that the, the, the, uh, Pfizer vaccine was holding up pretty well against the, um, Delta variant. It had reduced the effectiveness from about 95 to 88%. That's sort of the numbers. I think, uh, on Monday, Israel released a new study showing that the effectiveness of Pfizer against Delta had been reduced to 64%. Now, it, i- that's against, you know, getting symptoms and, and testing positive. It was still 93% against serious cases requiring hospitalization, but that 93% is down from, you know, 99% plus. So there has been reduced effectiveness by Delta. It's, um, it is a little bit concerning. And as if to underscore this point, someone very close to me ju- who was double-vaxxed with Pfizer just tested positive.

    4. JC

      He did test positive?

    5. DS

      Yes.

    6. JC

      Oh.

    7. DS

      ... so he, he woke up yesterday morning with, um-

    8. JC

      Huh.

    9. DS

      ... c- with cold symptoms. He had, um, sore throat, runny nose, um-

    10. JC

      But he's fine?

    11. DS

      ... and, and a slight fever, which then graduated into a headache. He went and got tested and he tested positive for COVID. So, I think he's fine.

    12. JC

      What city was he in when this happened?

    13. DS

      LA.

    14. JC

      Okay. Let me ask a question to Friedberg. Is it not the best possible situation... I know this sounds like a stupid question, but I am the lowest IQ guy on the pod. Is it not the best situation to have the Pfizer or whatever, have this amazing... then to get a mild case of COVID and then be doubly protected? Is that in some way an ideal situation if there is no long-haul COVID?

    15. DF

      It's not really clear if that's, um, gonna make a difference. You know, again, like remember, um, uh, uh, acquired immunity, uh, is on a spectrum, right? So a virus can get in your nose, it starts replicating, and if you got a ton of antibodies that immediately get to your nose, it'll shut down that virus before you experience anything. If that virus gets in your nose and starts replicating and your, you've got a kind of, you know, uh, your antibodies to that specific virus, um, you know, aren't as concentrated, it's gonna take your body, uh, a little bit longer to fight off that virus, but you're still well ahead of the game is a way to think about it. And so, you know, to some extent what we're seeing most likely is this Delta variant, um, having a greater escape velocity from people that have been vaccinated than, you know, the Alpha variant or any of the other variants we've seen. Um, and so as a result, you know, people are getting, to date luckily, knock on wood, mostly mild and moderate symptoms and only a minority of people, uh, that are exposed are, are getting, um, you know, that condition. Uh, but it's being tracked really closely. I mean, like, like Zach said, in Israel they have now said that, you know, if you're, uh, vaccinated with Pfizer, double-vaxxed with Pfizer, you're now 64%, um, you know, effective and you're, you know... That, that means that if you're exposed to, to COVID, uh, there's a chance you can actually get these symptoms. But the hospitalization rate and the fatality rate is still way, way low because you have built up enough immunity, you've built up enough antibodies to have a good strong defense to keep things from getting out of control. And so knock on wood right now, we're still looking good in terms of fatality and hospitalizations, but there's certainly-

    16. JC

      Chamath?

    17. DF

      Yeah.

    18. JC

      Wh- what do you think of this situation?

    19. DF

      And Chamath, are markets kind of worrying about this? Because I'm kind of w- wondering like as, as, as m- market participants see this stuff, are they trading it in a way that's like fearful and does this lead to some market conditions in the next couple of days and weeks?

    20. DS

      I mean, I think that there's a very good chance that, um, some politicians are gonna try to use this, uh, for another shutdown in the fall. Uh, for fuck's sake.

    21. I don't know. I don't see... I think you're right and I think the teachers' unions, the NEA and the AFT are already p- putting all sorts of demands on going back to school. I don't think this date... So first of all, I think we have to be intellectually honest that this is a bad data point. This is really the first bad data point that we've gotten. Until now, all the data's been good. The protection from the vaccines lasts longer, it had been completely holding up against the variants. But this data point from Israel is not a great data point. I want to see more of them, uh, more data-

    22. DF

      Yeah.

    23. DS

      ... but I don't think that, um, th- this by itself won't w-

    24. JC

      Wait a second. Didn't Isr- Israel only get to like 55, 60% vaccinated?

    25. DS

      Oh, no. They're, they're way higher than that.

    26. No, no, no, no. They're way higher than that.

    27. Yeah.

    28. DF

      Half of the infections they're seeing in Israel are children that were not vaccinated. And then the other half are-

    29. JC

      That's what it is.

    30. DF

      ... the other half are adults. Um, and so if you look at the adult infection rate, it looks like it's something around, um, 15%, uh, of, uh, you know, of these cas- or it's i- I forgot the number, but there's some, uh, statistic that shows that it's not, uh, the majority being vaccinated, there are unvaccinated people that are, um-

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