All-In PodcastE61: 2022 Predictions! Business, politics, science, tech, crypto, & more
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 5:11
COVID at Sacks’ party: testing, blame, and Omicron jokes
The episode opens with the besties teasing Jason about catching COVID and whether the party was a “GOP superspreader.” They argue (comedically) about who tested, incubation timing, and whether Jason brought it himself, before moving on to the predictions format.
- •Back-and-forth over whether Jason tested at the door and who flouted rules
- •Debate about incubation windows and when different guests tested positive
- •Omicron’s inevitability as a backdrop to assigning blame
- •Jason describes mild symptoms and still testing positive days later
- •The bit sets the tone: comedy first, then predictions
- 5:11 – 6:09
Setting up the 2022 predictions format (after the 2021 awards)
Jason transitions from the COVID riff into the structure of the episode: a 2022 predictions show following their 2021 Bestie Awards. They do a playful ‘warp speed into the future’ intro and tee up the first category: political winners.
- •Quick debrief on the prior week’s Bestie Awards episode
- •Announcing a structured set of prediction categories for 2022
- •Comedic ‘space/warp speed’ transition into the future
- •Jason frames the political section and needles Sacks about Tucker Carlson
- •The group prepares for rapid, round-robin picks
- 6:09 – 11:42
Biggest political winner: DeSantis, Putin, Xi—and a debate about China’s stability
Each host names a ‘biggest political winner’ for 2022, quickly widening into geopolitics. Picks include Ron DeSantis, Vladimir Putin (via US-China tensions), and Xi Jinping, triggering an argument about China’s internal risks, supply-chain leverage, and Evergrande contagion.
- •Sacks: Ron DeSantis cruises to re-election; becomes GOP frontrunner via COVID approach
- •Friedberg: Putin benefits from US-China rivalry and leverage in NATO/Ukraine
- •Sacks: Xi Jinping ascendant as ruler-for-life with critical supply-chain power
- •Jason pushes back: Xi consolidating due to fear; China facing real-estate debt risks
- •Consensus thread: China may be strong for Xi but economically volatile for others
- 11:42 – 17:04
Biggest political loser: Biden/Trump, Pelosi, progressive left, and ‘US influence’ concerns
They pivot to political losers with Jason predicting pain for both Biden and Trump, while Sacks targets Pelosi post-midterms. Chamath argues the progressive left will be exposed as policy failures, while Friedberg frames the broader loser as declining US geopolitical influence.
- •Jason: Biden loses midterms; Trump damaged by Jan 6 and may bow out
- •Sacks: Pelosi as casualty of a ‘red wave’ and Build Back Better fallout
- •Friedberg: US global influence at risk from potential cascading events
- •Chamath: progressive left becomes mainstream political liability (cities, unions, schools)
- •Discussion of Biden’s path to recovery via moving back to the center (Clinton-style)
- 17:04 – 19:07
Populism vs centrism: what drives 2022 politics?
A short but dense detour examines whether populism is fading or swelling. Friedberg argues anti-elitism and wealth concentration will intensify populist movements globally, while Chamath reframes ‘populism’ as what becomes popular—possibly centrism.
- •Populism defined as anti-elitism and backlash to concentrated power/capital
- •Argument that low rates and liquidity have kept social strain ‘at bay’
- •Chamath: a silent majority may reassert itself, making centrism ‘popular’
- •Global examples (Brazil, Europe) as signals of broader populist pressure
- •Implication: politics will be shaped by distributional conflict and inflation
- 19:07 – 25:45
Biggest business winners: small businesses, Stripe IPO, ‘rise of the rest,’ and Gen Z/Millennials
The business-winner round focuses on decentralization of opportunity—from small businesses to new tech enablers and geographic migration. Picks include small businesses and platforms like Shopify, a blockbuster Stripe IPO, the ‘rise of the rest’ outside CA/NY, and younger generations’ increased leverage and entrepreneurial drive.
- •Chamath: small businesses win as megacorps face policy/tax/competition constraints
- •Friedberg: Stripe could deliver the biggest tech IPO ever (direct listing rumors)
- •Sacks: ‘rise of the rest’ powered by migration to low-tax states and SALT reality
- •Reshoring and domestic industrial buildout (e.g., Samsung Texas foundry) as tailwind
- •Jason: Disney as corporate winner; broader winner is Millennials/Gen Z empowerment
- 25:45 – 34:30
Biggest business losers: crypto shakeout vs payment-rails disruption and Fed liquidity withdrawal
They name business losers and split into two main concerns: an overhyped crypto ecosystem facing a fundamentals reckoning, and legacy payment networks threatened by Web3 alternatives. Sacks broadens the category into a macro warning: markets addicted to QE may struggle as the Fed withdraws liquidity.
- •Jason + Friedberg: non-delivering crypto projects face ‘put up or shut up’ shakeout
- •Friedberg: dot-com style bust—most fail, a few become massive winners
- •Chamath: Visa/Mastercard and fee-based payment rails peak and get disrupted by Web3
- •Discussion of Amazon restricting Visa in the UK as a ‘canary’ and developing-world leapfrogging
- •Sacks: end of QE reduces liquidity; speculative assets (crypto, collectibles, growth) vulnerable
- 34:30 – 37:58
Contrarian predictions: AOC primary loss, Clinton re-evaluation, and demographic realignment
The ‘contrarian belief’ segment begins with Chamath predicting AOC challenges Schumer and loses, framing it as a test of progressive power. Sacks predicts Democrats rediscover the Clinton ‘triangulation’ playbook and warns demographic assumptions break as Hispanic and Asian-American voters behave more like swing voters.
- •Chamath: AOC runs in NY primary against Schumer and loses
- •Sacks: post–red wave, Democrats adopt Clinton-era centrism strategy
- •Shift: Hispanics and Asian-Americans as true swing blocs moving rightward
- •Jason: cultural mismatch between ‘handouts’ rhetoric and immigrant work ethic/pride
- •Progressive vs pragmatic liberal fault lines become central to party strategy
- 37:58 – 41:47
Friedberg’s contrarian trio: conflict risk, China’s climate narrative, and catastrophe tail risk
Friedberg offers three unconventional bets: rising probability of global conflict, a reframing of China as a climate mitigation leader via nuclear buildout, and an underpriced risk of major natural catastrophe. The group briefly riffs on media narratives and how ‘black swan’ events get ignored until they happen.
- •Increased likelihood of proxy conflicts (Ukraine/Taiwan) amid inflation and politics
- •China investing heavily in nuclear and positioning for carbon neutrality by 2060
- •Potential for China to gain global soft power as a climate ‘leader’
- •Natural catastrophe as low-probability, high-severity expected loss markets underprice
- •Theme: society reacts after-the-fact; conditioning and incentives drive surprises
- 41:47 – 48:51
Jason’s contrarian optimism vs Sacks’ ‘media flips on COVID’ prediction
Jason argues against the prevailing pessimism, predicting American exceptionalism and economic dynamism rebound through generational transition and capital transfer. Sacks counters with a media-focused contrarian take: mainstream outlets will abruptly soften COVID fear narratives ahead of the midterms, reframing lockdowns and ‘living with COVID.’
- •Jason: Millennials/Gen Z independence plus Gen X leadership drive renewed US strength
- •Boomer retirement and wealth transfer as economic accelerant
- •Sacks: media ‘180’ on COVID—memory-holing past stances, promoting ‘live with it’ framing
- •Claim: election incentives shape narrative; reverse-engineering desired outcomes
- •Debate: Omicron’s lower severity vs political/media incentives behind tone change
- 48:51 – 57:17
Underreported story: COVID policy damage to kids—and media incentives vs accountability
The conversation turns serious: Friedberg and Chamath argue the biggest missed story is the harm to children from school closures and restrictions. They cite mental health crisis indicators, learning loss, and disproportionate impacts, then debate why legacy media and local governance failed to surface and amplify these consequences sooner.
- •Friedberg: kids had lowest medical risk but paid biggest social/educational costs
- •Mental health stats: rising depression and suicide attempts; unequal impacts on communities
- •Chamath: YouTube/podcasting lacks incentive/breadth to amplify critical civic stories
- •Jason: media couldn’t reconcile ‘shelter in place’ narrative with ‘keep schools open’
- •Broader critique: editorial incentives favored fear/rating/power over accountability
- 57:17 – 1:02:00
School choice as a 2022 flashpoint: breaking union power and rebuilding learning
They discuss what it would take to repair the damage to kids and converge on competition as the lever—especially school choice. Sacks predicts a major California ballot initiative for per-pupil vouchers, with massive spending on both sides, and the group commits to supporting it and making children’s education a major pod theme.
- •Jason: rebuilding lost learning and mental health should be a national priority
- •Sacks: teachers unions won’t acknowledge learning loss without competitive pressure
- •Prediction: CA school-choice ballot initiative with ~$13k vouchers per student
- •Group commits to backing the initiative (including using summit profits)
- •Jason: small-group/homeschooling models could use pooled vouchers to hire teachers
- 1:02:00 – 1:04:19
Best performing assets of 2022: battery metals, venture stage bets, and energy/defense hedges
The show returns to rapid-fire market calls. Chamath picks battery metals; Sacks and Jason pick early-stage venture (with focus around Series A/just before Series A); Friedberg emphasizes energy commodities/stocks and defense names as conflict hedges, with a nod to Bitcoin as potential defensive allocation.
- •Chamath: lithium/nickel/cobalt/graphite basket as EV supply chain bet
- •Sacks: Series A as ‘chokepoint’ with better pricing than overheated seed/growth
- •Jason: early-stage startups remain the best asymmetric return asset class
- •Friedberg: energy and defense perform in conflict scenarios; gold historically, Bitcoin possibly
- •Macro framing: inflation/conflict/labor dynamics influence asset performance
- 1:04:19 – 1:22:29
Most anticipated trends and media in 2022: Web3 payments, political infighting, longevity biotech, and All-In Media
They close with trend and media predictions: peer-to-peer/Web3 payments (especially from Africa), an intensifying Democratic civil war, and a biotech ‘fountain of youth’ gold rush around cellular reprogramming. For media, they preview big franchise shows/films, and Chamath teases ‘All-In Media’ expanding beyond the podcast and summit.
- •Trend: decentralized peer-to-peer payments erode legacy rails; Africa as innovation locus
- •Trend: Democratic split between progressives and pragmatic liberals (SF/NY/DC examples)
- •Trend: Yamanaka factor cell reprogramming drives longevity breakthroughs and hype cycle
- •Media picks: Thor: Love and Thunder, House of the Dragon, Obi-Wan, Star Wars slate, LOTR prequel
- •Chamath: launch of All-In Media and Miami summit; discussion of ad-free ‘truth’ incentives
