All-In PodcastFed Hesitates on Tariffs, The New Mag 7, Death of VC, Google's Value in a Post-Search World
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 9:00
Miami F1, Fan Stories, and Event Recap
The besties open with a Miami F1 recap, including a comped dinner at Shiso, poker at Trophy House, and celebrity encounters. They highlight guest appearances at their live show—Sergey Brin, Tony Robbins, Nico Rosberg, Antonio Gracias, and Mayor Suarez—and tease publishing the Sergey segment separately.
- •Humorous story about a comped group dinner and tipping dynamics at Shiso in Miami.
- •Recap of the All-In live event during F1 with high-profile guests including Sergey Brin and Tony Robbins.
- •Description of the social nature of watching F1 from Trophy House, mixed with poker and sponsor activations.
- •Shout-outs to sponsors like OKX, Solana, Google Cloud, Circle, and Polymarket.
- •Plans for future 200–500 person All-In events at F1 Austin, Vegas, Super Bowl, and NBA Finals.
- 9:00 – 13:00
All-In Summit Plans and Media Appearances
They promote the upcoming All-In Summit in Los Angeles, emphasizing escalating spend on the attendee experience and parties. Jason and Chamath also mention a recent appearance on Megyn Kelly and frame the summit’s mission as hosting the world’s most important conversations.
- •All-In Summit scheduled for September 7–9 in Los Angeles; applications via allin.com/summit.
- •Party budget escalating from ~$900K to ~$2M+ over successive years to create a peak experiential event.
- •Positioning the Summit as a platform for high-impact, consequential conversations.
- •Reference to Jason and Chamath’s appearance on Megyn Kelly as part of their media strategy.
- 13:00 – 23:00
Fed Holds Rates: Data vs. Sentiment and Tariff Uncertainty
The conversation turns to macro: the Fed holds rates at 4.25–4.5% in 2025, citing solid activity but stagflation risks. Philippe argues the economy is stronger than sentiment suggests, while Chamath and Friedberg dissect liquidity signals, political constraints on Powell, and how new tariff structures will feed into Fed decision-making.
- •Fed has paused further cuts in 2025 after 2024 easing; now in ‘wait-and-see’ mode amid Trump’s tariff policy.
- •Philippe’s hard-data vs. sentiment ratio shows unusually strong fundamentals but depressed sentiment, suggesting sentiment is lagging, not leading.
- •Chamath points to subprime lender valuations as early warning signs of liquidity stress, but believes the Fed is politically constrained from cutting ahead of elections.
- •Friedberg notes CPI at 2.4% vs. a 2% target and emphasizes upcoming data releases plus evolving trade deals as key inputs.
- •Early evidence from a UK trade deal shows a 10% import tariff and removal of a tech surtax, indicating tariffs may be a persistent revenue and policy tool.
- 23:00 – 35:50
Tariffs, Trade Deals, and ‘4D Chess’ vs. Chaos
They examine Trump’s tariff strategy, new trade deals (notably with the UK), and how retailers and markets are adapting. Philippe stresses he’s cautious on macro but sees tariffs as a temporary overhang that will eventually be offset by deregulation and tax cuts, at which point AI growth will dominate market narratives.
- •Evidence that not all tariffs are fully passed through: one major retailer expects only ~50% to reach consumers.
- •The UK deal retains a 10% tariff despite the US having a trade surplus with the UK, raising questions about higher rates for less-friendly countries.
- •Markets reacted positively to hints of a more ‘win–win’ tone on China and trade, not just confrontation.
- •Philippe admits uncertainty around sector-specific tariffs (autos, pharma, semis) and their disruptive nature.
- •He frames tariffs as a transient issue likely to be offset by tax and regulatory changes, while AI (‘tokens’) is a secular uptrend.
- 35:50 – 45:00
AI Tokens, Compute Shortages, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade
Philippe introduces his ‘tokens > tariffs’ thesis using Microsoft’s 100-trillion-token quarter and widespread chip shortages as evidence of explosive AI demand. Friedberg and others expand on AI as a once-in-a-generation lever for management productivity and cross-industry disruption, not just a tech-sector story.
- •Microsoft disclosed ~100T tokens processed in Q1, with 50T in March, implying near-vertical growth in AI usage.
- •Reasoning engines and advanced models are driving higher token consumption and CapEx requirements.
- •Both public and private companies in Coatue’s universe report shortages of chips and compute capacity.
- •Friedberg describes AI as an opportunity to rewire every mature market, with management layers among the first to be disrupted.
- •They foresee a new wave of value creation in non-traditional ‘tech’ sectors that harness AI effectively.
- 45:00 – 54:30
Google’s Search Slowdown and the AI Innovator’s Dilemma
The panel reacts to Eddy Cue’s testimony that Apple’s search volume fell for the first time in two decades due to AI tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity. They debate whether Google should panic, given its strong models and diversified revenue, and explore how and where Google must push Gemini to avoid losing the emerging AI interaction layer.
- •Cue reveals Apple search volume dropped for the first time in 20 years because users are moving to AI search tools.
- •Google’s immediate response claims continued query growth, but markets briefly erased $100B in value on the news.
- •Friedberg argues Google has competitive models but is constrained because AI queries are far more expensive to serve than classic search.
- •Chamath warns that moving from a de facto 99% share to 75% over two years could be catastrophic if they don’t proactively integrate Gemini as the front door to Google.
- •Jason emphasizes YouTube and Workspace (Gmail, Calendar, Docs) as ideal surfaces for aggressive Gemini integration that could deepen ad targeting and user value.
- 54:30 – 1:02:00
From Mag 7 to ‘Mag 25’: Rethinking Market Leadership
Philippe critiques the simplistic ‘Mag 7’ trade and suggests a future basket of ~25 critical companies, including private giants like SpaceX and Stripe. The group compares Google’s situation to Yellow Pages vs. blue links, raises the question of whether Google becomes the next IBM or reinvents itself, and underscores the importance of founder-led ‘taste’ in navigating inflection points.
- •Philippe notes Google’s ~$1.8T market cap versus OpenAI’s implied ~$300B, asking if a 6x ratio is sustainable.
- •He recalls how Yellow Pages links were displaced by Google’s blue links, but notes Google’s lack of leverage and large cash buffer make it structurally different.
- •Key tension: does Google become a low-growth ‘IBM’ or successfully re-engineer around AI with businesses like Waymo, YouTube, and Cloud?
- •He posits roughly 25 companies—not 5 or 7—as the real long-term core of the market, spanning both public and private names.
- •Chamath observes that continuing to spend ~$75B/year on AI infrastructure while under-deploying it in consumer products is the worst of both worlds.
- 1:02:00 – 1:09:00
Do Google’s Founders Need to Return? Taste, Courage, and Strategy
The discussion narrows to governance and leadership at Google: can current management execute the necessary product shifts, or must Larry and Sergey reassert themselves? Jason reports on Sergey’s deep, hands-on involvement with Gemini, while Chamath argues only founders have the moral authority to accept pain in a $1.8T business to reposition for the future.
- •Philippe questions whether only the founders have enough ‘gravitas’ to impose disruptive changes on a company this large.
- •Jason recounts detailed product discussions with Sergey about Gemini, YouTube, and local search, portraying him as intensely engaged and back in the building.
- •Chamath insists that at a strategic junction like this, only those who bear the most financial and emotional pain—founders—can credibly drive a risky pivot.
- •He urges Google to proactively ‘paint the death case’ and act before a drip of negative data (like further search-share losses) demoralizes the org.
- 1:09:00 – 1:17:00
Antitrust, M&A Freeze, and the ‘Death of Venture Capital’
The conversation broadens to structural issues in venture capital and tech ecosystems. They argue Lina Khan’s aggressive antitrust posture has frozen M&A and IPO markets post‑2021, undermining the power-law upside that motivates founders and LPs, and threatening America’s innovation flywheel.
- •Post-2021, IPO and M&A volumes have collapsed to levels worse than mid‑2000s ‘normal’ years.
- •Boards reportedly see no point in even discussing acquisitions because of anticipated FTC hostility, especially around big tech buyers.
- •Chamath explains how LPs require illiquid VC to deliver net mid‑20s returns to justify lockups; with exits blocked, VC looks like a bad hedge fund instead.
- •Philippe warns that limiting giant outcomes and M&A removes the ‘lottery ticket’ incentive, reducing risk-taking and long-run innovation.
- •They compare the downstream consequences to under-invested countries like China (recently) and Europe—stagnation, fewer diasporas of experienced founders, and less philanthropic capital from tech fortunes.
- 1:17:00 – 1:26:00
Interval Funds and a Berkshire-Inspired Model for Tech Investing
Philippe lays out the rationale and structure for Coatue’s new interval fund, seeded by the Bezos and Dell families. It aims to combine public and private investing, flexible cash levels, and broad investor access, modeled conceptually on Berkshire Hathaway’s permanent-capital approach but focused on building the next generation tech index.
- •Interval fund basics: quasi-permanent capital, periodic (e.g., quarterly) redemption windows, ability to hold cash, publics, and privates in one vehicle.
- •Fee structure around 1.25% management and 12% carry, lower than standard 2/20 VC or hedge funds, justified by long compounding horizons.
- •Initial seeding of $1B from Bezos and Dell family offices; target launch size surpassing an early Blackstone fund to be the largest first-time fund of its type.
- •Goal is to ‘build the new Mag 7’ (really Mag 25) over the next decade, owning both leading public names and private leaders like SpaceX, Stripe, etc.
- •Vehicle can participate across the capital structure (equity, potentially debt, minority growth stakes, even control in theory), but the North Star is concentrating on future mega-cap winners rather than early-stage spray-and-pray.
- 1:26:00 – 1:36:08
Pricing Private Hype and Balancing Imagination with Discipline
They close with a practical discussion on avoiding overpaying in overheated private markets—especially in areas like humanoid robots—and the importance of combining a ‘telescope into the future’ with the valuation discipline of public markets. The episode ends with some lighthearted AI pope-meme jokes featuring Phil Hellmuth.
- •Philippe emphasizes two filters for privates: high confidence the company will be the category leader, and pricing that makes sense relative to public comps.
- •Cautions against rounds that simply ‘double’ prior valuations without fundamentals, driven by hype or charismatic founders.
- •Argues the best investors blend imagination (seeing future markets early) with a hard-nosed sense of valuation shaped by public market experience.
- •Notes that in publics you get beaten up constantly and learn discipline; in privates, marks can float up until they suddenly collapse to zero.
- •Episode wraps with a humorous AI-generated ‘Pope selection’ bit featuring Phil Hellmuth, Chamath, and Nancy Pelosi as faux popes.
