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SpaceX’s $2T Case, Nvidia’s Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?

(0:00) Gavin Baker joins the show! (0:30) Andrej Karpathy joins Anthropic; hypergrowth and profitability (12:42) Why Americans have turned on AI, anti-human perception (27:22) Trump pulls AI EO, US-China AI relationship, dystopian AI layoffs (45:19) SpaceX S-1 tear down! Breaking down the three major businesses and the case for a $2T valuation (1:11:22) Nvidia smashes earnings but stock falls, why people are shorting chips (1:22:25) Market update: Flashing red signals, oil, inflation, yields up (1:32:45) China trip flops, or was progress made behind the scenes? Follow Gavin Baker: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Apply for Summit 2026: https://allin.com/events Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/anthropic-hires-openai-cofounder-andrej-karpathy-former-tesla-ai-lead.html https://github.com/karpathy/autoresearch https://github.com/multica-ai/andrej-karpathy-skills/stargazers https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/19/openai-co-founder-andrej-karpathy-joins-anthropics-pre-training-team https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-propel-anthropic-into-its-first-profitable-quarter-7edbf2f4 https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1dxYljYVREYJX https://apnews.com/article/trump-ai-executive-order-ee318f35acc8a2c43e47f3ebf26cb459 https://x.com/wallstengine/status/2057378437485216031 https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/2056842597117636890 https://x.com/lulumeservey/status/2057239284487201043 https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-closing-market-cap-above https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2057228707606196434 https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1181412/000162828026036936/spaceexplorationtechnologi.htm https://s201.q4cdn.com/141608511/files/doc_financials/2027/Q127/NVDA-F1Q27-Quarterly-Presentation-FINAL.pdf https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/leopold-aschenbrenner-investment-shift-agi-over-ai-chips-1797606 https://polymarket.com/event/may-inflation-us-annual https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/inflation-rate-projected-to-hit-6percent-in-the-second-quarter-top-economic-forecasters-say.html https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026 https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/18/treasury-yields-inflation-bond-rout-oil.html https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y #allin #tech #news

Jason CalacanishostGavin BakerguestChamath PalihapitiyahostDavid Friedberghost
May 22, 20261h 41mWatch on YouTube ↗

At a glance

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

AI backlash, SpaceX IPO thesis, Nvidia debate, and macro risks unpacked

  1. Andrej Karpathy’s move to Anthropic is framed as a major bet on recursive self-improvement and continual learning, potentially accelerating model progress beyond current human-driven iteration cycles.
  2. The hosts argue the U.S. is experiencing an AI “PR crisis,” driven by fear of job displacement and tone-deaf corporate messaging, and they propose shifting attention to frontline user benefits (healthcare, manufacturing, safety).
  3. SpaceX’s S-1 discussion highlights three business lines—Starlink profitability, launch losses, and a fast-growing AI/compute segment—supporting a credible route to a ~$2T valuation if data-center build speed and demand persist.
  4. Nvidia posts extraordinary growth, margins, and capital returns, but debate centers on cross-market “valuation inconsistency” across AI infrastructure players and the lack of transparent benchmarks from rival ASIC ecosystems.
  5. Macro conditions flash warning signs—oil-driven inflation, rising global yields, and Japan’s long-end stress—yet panelists differ on whether this implies imminent crisis or simply higher volatility while AI fundamentals strengthen.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Karpathy’s hire signals Anthropic is prioritizing compounding model improvement loops.

The conversation treats recursive self-improvement and continual learning as potential “frontiers” that could unlock order-of-magnitude progress, especially if models can meaningfully contribute to their own training and iteration.

AI backlash is less about “AI itself” and more about power asymmetry and job fear.

Friedberg argues people see benefits accruing to a small elite while the broader public lacks clarity on personal upside, creating a narrative of extraction; others add that layoffs attributed to AI amplify this fear.

Corporate communication is becoming a material risk factor in AI adoption.

Chamath criticizes memos like Cloudflare’s “measurers” framing and Meta’s monitoring/training narrative, arguing tone-deaf messaging converts operational decisions into reputational and political liabilities.

A practical pro-AI narrative should be built from end-user stories, not model-maker hype.

Examples include an LLM-assisted rare-disease drug repurposing story and the suggestion (via Palantir’s Shyam Sankar) to spotlight factory workers, nurses, and scientists seeing measurable gains.

SpaceX’s $2T case relies on speed-to-capacity in compute plus Starlink’s scalability.

Baker emphasizes SpaceX’s rapid data-center build times and the strategic value of being able to energize GPUs fastest; combined with Starlink’s profitability and growth, this supports aggressive valuation underwriting.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

I think this idea of recursive self-learning puts these models on a combination of overdrive and autopilot.

Chamath Palihapitiya

I think that there's, like, an underlying view that technology creates leverage for a small group of people, which creates power imbalances, and nothing represents that more than AI.

David Friedberg

You reduce humans to a label called the measurer, and then you're like, "I'm gonna lay off all the measurers."

Chamath Palihapitiya

Crime is now a choice.

Gavin Baker

Because what he creates is a capital moat that then accelerates a technology moat, that then accelerates an execution and a learning moat.

Chamath Palihapitiya

Karpathy at Anthropic; recursive self-improvement; continual learningAI public backlash, comms failures, and “anti-human” perceptionRegulation/KYC for frontier models; U.S.–China AI détenteSpaceX S-1 teardown; Starlink economics; “Elon Web Services” computeOrbital compute and Starship rapid reusability timelinesNvidia earnings, buybacks/dividends, and ASIC benchmarking disputesRising yields, inflation/oil shock, and bond/credit-crisis scenarios

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