EVERY SPOKEN WORD
25 min read · 5,278 words- 0:00 – 0:49
2025 hot takes setup: a different kind of year-in-review
- MSMichael Seibel
Hot take, depopulation. Is humanity gonna make it, Dalton? And will it be too few people or too many?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah. I mean-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... the graphs look bad.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] They look really bad.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
[upbeat music] This is Dalton + Michael, and, uh, this feels gonna be a little different. We're gonna do a little bit of a 2025 in review. What are hot takes from 2025?
- DCDalton Caldwell
The hottest of takes, Michael.
- MSMichael Seibel
The hottest of takes. Dalton was inspired by the Colin Jost, Michael Che end of the year SNL skit-
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
... where they give each other extremely challenging jokes to say out loud that will get themselves canceled.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Let's not do that.
- MSMichael Seibel
We're not gonna do that, no.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
But it's a cool idea. Maybe next year.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Anyways, where do you wanna start? Where, where, what's the first, first hot take topic?
- 0:49 – 2:56
San Francisco narratives: ignore Twitter, and stop over-crediting politicians
- DCDalton Caldwell
So let's start with, um, San Francisco, Michael. Let's start at the, the hottest of-
- MSMichael Seibel
Ooh, yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... hot takes. So what's your hot take on the status of the city and politics and, like, the whole shebang?
- MSMichael Seibel
My hot take is, like, if you're reading it on Twitter, it's like, it, it's, there's a greater than 50% chance it, it's wrong.
- DCDalton Caldwell
In what way?
- MSMichael Seibel
Just, just wrong. Just, like, just assume anything that is meme-ing about San Francisco, either positive or negative, on Twitter is wrong.
- DCDalton Caldwell
So is it better? You're just saying it's different.
- MSMichael Seibel
It's just different. It's just, like, it's just, like-
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
... there's no signal. Like, the signal that you're getting on the things that are meme-ing is, like, you should ignore that signal. It's the fuzz. It's not real signal.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I'm sure they're all gonna listen to you. You sol- you solved it, Michael.
- MSMichael Seibel
Solved the problem.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Thank you. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Nothing's gonna trend re: San Francisco.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
I think my second hot take, people give politicians way too much agency. I don't care who the people leading San Francisco were, if you have COVID, if you have the emptying of downtown's office spaces, and if you have, um, a defund the police movement, you're gonna be in a challenging situation. I don't care who's leading a city, if you're emerging from those things [laughs] -
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep
- MSMichael Seibel
... [laughs] you're gonna be in a better situation. And all too often I feel like humans need, like, viral narratives to explain simple things. And, like, yes, there are, you know, there's more work to be done and blah, blah, blah, all these things, but, like, those two trends are generally gonna hold, and probably the people running the city are just trying to do best with the general [laughs] situation that they're in. What's that phrase where, like, the king goes down to the thing and Charles is, "I'm gonna show all of my citizens how powerful I am, and I'm gonna, I'm gonna command the tide to go out." [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
And the tide doesn't move. And he's like, "That's, that's my power." [laughs] That's what I-
- DCDalton Caldwell
I don't know that one. All right.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Tell me.
- MSMichael Seibel
Those are my moves. So anyways, I think that's my hot take on San Francisco.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
The, the Twitter narrative is basically completely incorrect. All right.
- DCDalton Caldwell
What do you got for me?
- 2:56 – 5:09
Depopulation panic: from ‘population bomb’ to fertility decline
- MSMichael Seibel
Um, hot take, depopulation. Is humanity gonna make it, Dalton? And will it be too few people or too many?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah. I mean-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... the graphs look bad.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] They look really bad.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs] I remember a long time ago when I was a, like, an undergrad at Stanford, I remember seeing a building on the campus.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And there was a dumpster next to it.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And it was full of books that had clearly been thrown out of the building.
- MSMichael Seibel
Interesting.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And of course this evoke my natural curiosity-
- MSMichael Seibel
Stanford throwing books. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... to like, why would you throw a bunch of books-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and journals into a dumpster?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And it was all, uh, from something called, I think the Stanford Food Research Institute.
- MSMichael Seibel
Okay.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I looked into it a little bit at the time, and basically it was a whole department/think tank-
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm
- DCDalton Caldwell
... that as far as I could tell, again, I could m- maybe get some of the subtlety wrong-
- MSMichael Seibel
Sure
- DCDalton Caldwell
... but it was basically encouraging people to stop having children because there wasn't enough food to feed people in the world.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
So there may be more to it than that, but-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... I guess Stanford shut that down, which is why all the journals that were studying the, like, theory of this ended up getting shut down. Obviously, this theory became very popular in certain countries. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
I might argue it became part of public policy-
- DCDalton Caldwell
It did
- 5:09 – 7:10
Why incentives fail: immigration, environmental beliefs, and ineffective pro-natal policies
- DCDalton Caldwell
It looks bad. It looks bad for Japan. I mean, I don't know. Look, I, I'm not-
- MSMichael Seibel
It looks not my level of work.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Let me- crazy, it looks bad for Amer-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, I love how it's like y- I, I see these graphs where it's like China popul- depopulation is gonna, like, kill everything, right?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And then, like, America, fine, and then it's like America fine includes immigration. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And you're like, well, g- great. Like, that's not-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yep
- DCDalton Caldwell
... repopulating, uh, the world. That's just [laughs] -
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... us opening our doors, which I love immigration, but, like, it's not solving the larger problem. I, I wanna give PG a little bit of credit here. I think that, you know, going to Yale and kinda seeing people talking about ideas who didn't always seem that smart, I think I kinda just dismissed the power of ideas a little bit.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I think I dismissed academia a little too much.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I remember kind of, you know, PG talking about some things around, like, hey, this stuff happened. Like, I, I just feel like, oh, we just ignore college campuses. Just ignore that. That's like, you know, whatever. Who cares?And like, it's like there's some ideas that when they take hold, they can have a lot of power.
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I think this is one of them.
- MSMichael Seibel
You would assume at some point someone would do the math and be like, "No. No, folks." Like, I think there's still people who aren't having kids today-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... 'cause they believe that we are, like, gonna overpopulate. It's bad for the environment.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah, like environmentalism.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. And it's like-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Well-
- MSMichael Seibel
... wow, that's a powerful idea.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And what's crazy is, like, the solutions are all kind of random from government. So like, "Well, we'll give people a tax credit." Like-
- MSMichael Seibel
The solutions are not good [laughs] .
- DCDalton Caldwell
The, the solutions are-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- 7:10 – 9:06
AGI progress vs AGI hype: models improved fast, timelines feel similar
- MSMichael Seibel
All right. So that's one. Um, next one, AGI, Dalton. January 1, 2025, did you think we were gonna be closer or further from AGI than you believe today?
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think it depends on how you define it.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think the models improved faster than I would've expected January 1, 2025.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Just in the past two or three weeks-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... there have been a bunch of new models that dropped. Literally in the past two weeks-
- MSMichael Seibel
Google's coming on strong
- DCDalton Caldwell
... everyone put out new models-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yep
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and they all seem pretty good. And the other funny thing about the new models is it takes a while to know how good they are.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yep.
- DCDalton Caldwell
You can't just run the benchmark and automatically know if they're good.
- MSMichael Seibel
No.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so I think the rate of improvement is higher than I expected.
- MSMichael Seibel
Okay.
- DCDalton Caldwell
But I'm not sure, depending on how you define AGI, this is way better than I would've expected at the beginning of the year. I still think the timelines are similar-
- MSMichael Seibel
Okay
- DCDalton Caldwell
... to where we started the year.
- MSMichael Seibel
I'll answer the same way, but I think because I was skeptical of AGI in January, and I'm skeptical now.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Okay.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. I think that, like, AGI is such a cool and almost viral idea, and such an impactful idea, that it can, it can suck up all the oxygen in the room.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
I remember talking to a founder August, and she was like, "Oh, you know, I talked to all the people working on this stuff," and they're like, "Yeah. You know, we're, like, six to no more than 18 months away-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep
- MSMichael Seibel
... from just super intelligence." And you know, they were sitting there just imagining what the world would be like as if they're making plans, you know? [laughs] Like-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Oh, I'm there
- MSMichael Seibel
... near-term plans, right? It's weird. I feel like that did not help this founder at all. One, I think that those people, while making their plans, were not operating their businesses as if AGI was six months away. So it was, like-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Mm
- 9:06 – 10:05
Self-driving as the cautionary parallel: right direction, wrong timeframe
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think this is related to our next hot-take topic-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... which is self-driving.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yep.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so let's start by, by what I think the parallels are-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... is, man, in 2015-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... it felt like we were at the precipice of self-driving working.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I spent a lot of time being like, "Man, my kids are never gonna need to learn how to drive." [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, it's like, like... And, and remember, we had a colleague who didn't know how to drive.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And he pre-ordered a Tesla full self-driving in, like, 2016-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, 'cause-
- DCDalton Caldwell
'Cause he was like, "Oh, well, this-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... is gonna self-drive in, like, 2017."
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so I think we were living in an environment where it really did seem like ubiquitous self-driving would happen in 2017, 2018.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yep.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Your former co-founder, Kyle, was the founder of Cruise.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And, and so I just, I think we were, like, really drinking the Kool-Aid.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think with hindsight, we were totally right.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I think in hindsight, it took longer than we thought.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- 10:05 – 12:42
Humans in the loop: teleoperators, ML replacing rules, and what ‘solved’ means
- MSMichael Seibel
The tricky thing though is, like, I would say it's, like, it's, it's not, it's happening. It's started to happen.
- DCDalton Caldwell
It's happening in the Bay Area.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Not across the US.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I took a-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I'm in the Tesla Robotaxi beta.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I took one here.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I take Waymo constantly.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. Yes. I would still give that a maybe. What is the ratio of teleoperators to cars on the road at Waymo?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah. I still think this would've been within the range of what we would've satisfied us in 2017. I'm not saying I know the number.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
You don't think it is?
- MSMichael Seibel
I-
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think it is.
- MSMichael Seibel
I think that in 2015 to '17, I... No, no, I think I thought self-driving was going to be a solved problem. There are no humans in the loop when I'm doing Google Search.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
And then to your point, and then of course, have we rolled it out to yet any, like, to-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. Right. So to me-
- DCDalton Caldwell
And, and actually there was a technical bottleneck. Again, this is the other parallel-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... of AI. It's my, my understanding of people that work on this, when I've spoken with them, is that they ended up deleting a lot of, like, hard-coded C++ rules, and it's just all ML stuff that wasn't even invented.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Computer science had to catch up is my understanding. Again, maybe someone in the comments will disagree, but that is my understanding from people that work on this stuff.
- MSMichael Seibel
I think that's what kind of frustrates me about these topics is that, like, if we're dex- directionally correct, but the timeframe's off, it really impacts how you should, like, operate your life. There's a meaningful difference between an AI model that can do a lot of work for you that, like, makes you a superpower, a meaningful difference between, like, let's say an AI model or a foundation model company that can make every person feel like they get the value that Cursor gives an engineer. There's so much distance between that and super intelligence.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- 12:42 – 14:13
Space in 2025: Starlink mainstream, funding surge, and ‘cheap launch’ hasn’t arrived yet
- DCDalton Caldwell
strategies about their life- Yes ... assuming we're on an 18-month timeline- Yeah, delaying having kids, say. [laughs] Yeah, yeah. [laughs] Yeah. I'm like, eh, like... [laughs] The timeline caveat's a large caveat, [laughs] I would say. Yeah. I would say. All right. What's the next one? Space. It's been an interesting year for space. We have seen Starlink basically go mainstream. Yep. We've seen a lot more space startups being funded. Yep. We've seen space defense kinda take a little bit. What's your space- Yeah. I, um, I think I put out a, a YC video request for startups about this. Yes. But basically, as a side effect of SpaceX working- Yes ... the cost per pound to get something into space- Yes ... is dropping rapidly. It's like Moore's law, where remember the number of transistors in a chip was doing this, the cost to send something to space is doing this. Yes. So it's getting exponentially cheaper. Yes. So now you can do all sorts of wacky stuff 'cause you can get- Yes ... things in space. Sounds like the SpaceX IPO is real. Yeah. So I think this is a really exciting time. My space hot take is very similar, which is, like, we haven't experienced cheap launch yet. Yeah. People who've been in the space industry for a while are like, "Oh my God, we finally have cheap launch," and I think we're gonna look at, back at this time and be like, "God, that was expensive launch." [laughs] Yeah. [laughs] If you told me we've reached the iPhone moment where it makes sense to start building iPhone apps, I would believe you. Mm. If you told me that we haven't yet, I think I still might believe... Like- Yeah ... I still might believe Starship is the iPhone moment. I'll give you another one that was interesting, though, re: space. What
- 14:13 – 14:43
Second-order effects: competing with SpaceX/Starlink for launches
- DCDalton Caldwell
do you think about space companies having to compete with SpaceX for launch space, right? It's a tricky- Sounds hard. I have multiple companies now that have gotten bumped off their launches, and I'm like, "Oh, can you, like, negotiate, like, who was it?" And they're like, "It was, it was SpaceX." [laughs] "It was Starlink." Wow. And I was like, "Yeah, I guess you can't really negotiate, can you?" So what you're saying is we should buy SpaceX stock at IPO? No, no. There's no- This is not Investment Advice. [laughs] It's not Investment Advice, no.
- 14:43 – 16:14
Remote vs in-person after COVID: startups vs big-company reality
- DCDalton Caldwell
No. Another big topic from the COVID days, what's your hot take on in-person versus remote? Obviously in person is better, and it's depressing how much of big company stuff is putting the toothpaste back in the tube and when they went remote. I do think there's stuff that stuck from that era that was probably good, where people are way more willing to do Zoom meetings now. I think the norms changed in some ways in a positive, where imagine how weird it would have been to try to do nothing over Zoom. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That wouldn't... Like, I'm glad I can just, like, hop on Zooms- Yes ... and do certain types of meetings. I agree. It got... That's way better. Yep. Real-time communication, chat got way more popularized. Yeah. I am torn about this in-person versus remote. I think this is what I've come to believe. I think large companies are always remote. You know, you get over some number of employees, and the chances that the three people you work with most closely are... have their desks next to you basically goes to zero. Yeah. So I never really thought this was a fair debate, 'cause I think the debate was really for startups. It always seemed obvious that, like, you should be in person. Yep. And so I felt like this was a fight that we had to fight for a while, which was just kinda silly, and now it's like, okay, can we go back to the normal? [laughs] Like... Have we not run this experiment involuntarily? Yeah. [laughs] Yeah. But to me, I think that was the shocking thing was that, like, a bunch of startups that did not want
- 16:14 – 20:14
Are we in an AI bubble? Adoption is early, but infrastructure debt is the risk
- DCDalton Caldwell
to run like big companies were copying the best practices of big companies. Yep. What do we have left? Are we in a bubble, Michael? I think that, like, as long as there's another bubble that keeps whatever bubble's going inflated- Keeps it r- yeah, yeah. Yeah. There's always gonna be a new bubble. Yeah. I'm gonna say no, and I'm usually the skeptic. I don't think we know the amount of impact that even today's AI tools can have in business. Yeah. I think we are so early in the adoption cycle that even if all AI development stopped today- Like, we would still get, like, tons of improvement, 'cause, like, adoption is- Yeah ... very, very small. I think my nuanced take is the following. As a founder, I learned that debt is bad, because debt, like, causes startups to blow up. I ask PG about this, right? This is one of his, like, evergreen topics, which is never put debt on your startup. Yes. It feels like free money. It feels like cheap money. Yeah. There's all these covenants in the contract that comes when you take debt- Yeah ... so that when debt goes bad, it goes really bad, and you lose your company. Super fast. Yep. Okay? So debt in startups is, like, a bad mix. Yes. And then if you look at prior bad economic cycles- Yes ... debt is in there somewhere. Yep. Like, I think if you go all the way back to, like, the 1929 stock market crash, people were, like, taking out loans to buy equity. Yep. So taking out debt to buy equity I think we can say is probably a bad idea if you don't know what you're doing. I mean, the, the great financial crisis was very similar. [laughs] Right? It was, it was debt-driven. Yes. And so my nuance here is of all the things that I see that kind of concern me- Yes ... it would be debt issuance to finance data center spend to finance buying graphics cards, and that is downwind of all the stuff we do. Again, we're not in that business, man. Yeah. But if you look at the whole machine-There's a lot of debt that's being issued right now
- MSMichael Seibel
If we were to reframe it, like, was the internet a bubble? No. Was there a bubble in the deployment of-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Fiber optic cables?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Did the people in the business of laying the fiber optic cable lose their asses?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yes. They definitely did.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And we, as consumers, benefited-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... from the fiber optic cables getting laid. You know, hooray. Our startups benefited-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... from these things. We're all downwind of it.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
But the actual people that were in the business-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... of financing that fiber optic ca- cable, that was, that was bad.
- MSMichael Seibel
I am quite positive that somebody is over-building or inefficiently building at some level-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... of the AI stack. Like, it seems like a- almost impossible-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... that wouldn't be the case.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so that does worry me, but that doesn't mean that the stuff doesn't work and isn't solving problems for customers and all that-
- MSMichael Seibel
No
- DCDalton Caldwell
... on the, like-
- MSMichael Seibel
No, no
- DCDalton Caldwell
... user-facing stuff. But I do wonder how much debt is actually in this thing. That worries me, man.
- MSMichael Seibel
I mean, from the perspective of a participant in the stock market, those kinds of things can have short-term negative impacts on the stock market.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
But in terms of the long-
- 20:14 – 24:37
Abundance vs affordability: governance truth vs campaign message
- MSMichael Seibel
All right. And the last one, this is probably secretly my favorite. Uh, abundance versus affordability. Let me, let me set this up. The Democratic Party is searching for a message. The Trump era, theoretically, is coming to a close or a change, and it seems like there's two competing messages. There is more of a moderate abundance, can we make government work better? And there is more of a progressive affordability, what are the things that happen in the economy or amongst business or even in the government that makes it harder for you to pay for everyday things? How do you think about this dichotomy here?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Technology has consistently delivered us, um, abundance.
- MSMichael Seibel
Sure.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And if you just think about all the cool stuff we get, like smartphones and-
- MSMichael Seibel
Sure
- DCDalton Caldwell
... good healthcare and cheap clothes, like, all this good stuff, we live in an age of abundance, and it's only, um, increasing.
- MSMichael Seibel
It's funny you say that, 'cause like, I think somebody that was, like, examining the fossil record would obvi- I think would agree with you. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah. If you're like, like, what kind of-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
What was life in the 1930s like?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Well, I don't think they had all this stuff, man. I, I don't think- [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] Objectively, I... [laughs] But like, what's weird is that, like, isn't it interesting the idea, like, what percentage of the population of America would say, "I feel like I'm living in a time of abundance"?
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think stuff used to be cheaper. And again, this isn't, this isn't my area of expertise, but-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... the housing stuff-
- MSMichael Seibel
It's not great
- DCDalton Caldwell
... is clearly an affordability type... There is not an abundance of cheap housing.
- MSMichael Seibel
Nope.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I think it's easy to look at the past with, with rose-colored glasses and gloss. Remember when gas used to cost whatever a per gallon-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and when a house cost $100,000-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and not admit that there's a trade-off that you had to live without the internet or... You know?
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like, there's all these other trade-off you... [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes, yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think it's easy to, like, forget that there was a trade that we all implicitly taken. Maybe some people would say, "I don't wanna make that trade. I'd love to go live in-
- MSMichael Seibel
Well, like-
- DCDalton Caldwell
... 1986 again," right? Uh-
- 24:37 – 26:18
2026 political prediction and closing: dueling populisms and AGI jokes
- MSMichael Seibel
We're talking about '25. What does that mean for 2026? What does that look like in practice?
- MSMichael Seibel
That means I believe the Democratic Party will have a populist message that, like, bad people make things too expensive.
- MSMichael Seibel
Wow.
- MSMichael Seibel
Just like I think the Republican Party has had a bit of a populist message that immigrants make the country worse.
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm.
- MSMichael Seibel
And it's a little scary that we're gonna have kind of two populist messages kind of fighting each other that I think are, like, kind of hiding the real facts. But, uh, you know, it's not the first time we've had populist messages [laughs] right? Like, you know, it's like, it's like, yeah, we've gotten through this stuff before.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
When people are like, "Oh my God, social media's making things horrible," like Amer- there's never been a worse time in America. Like, I'm like, eh, is that ... Eh. [laughs] Like, just pick a buck.
- MSMichael Seibel
I don't wanna be that guy, but-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] Like, you know, it's like I know these are problems, but like we, we've dealt with worse problems. [laughs] Like-
- MSMichael Seibel
That one's hard. It's, it's, uh ... Especially for a process-oriented person like me.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, you're on the fair lines, man.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
I'm, I'm glad this is not my ... Yeah, I don't have to go fix this one. Well, I guess that was 2025. We'll see what happens when, uh, AGI takes us over. This will be produced by AGI in 2026. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
They have enough footage of us. They can definitely replicate it.
- MSMichael Seibel
They do. They do. And I've been saying thank you every time I use a foundation model, so we'll be safe. [laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] Great chat, Dalton.
- MSMichael Seibel
All right. Thanks, man. [upbeat music]
Episode duration: 26:18
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Transcript of episode jVDb1h2vveg
