EVERY SPOKEN WORD
25 min read · 4,870 words- 0:00 – 1:11
Why they won’t do AI doom-and-gloom clickbait
- DCDalton Caldwell
It would be way easier for us to get on this video and say crazy doom and gloom things
- MSMichael Seibel
You're gonna die tomorrow-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Right?
- MSMichael Seibel
Because of AI
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like we, we could just say really provocative statements-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... that sound like sci-fi, that sound like The Matrix-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and that would surely get more clicks-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... than us being like, "It's gonna be fine."
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
I'm gonna go separately. It's gonna be great. [upbeat music]
- MSMichael Seibel
This is Dalton + Michael, and today we're gonna talk about, controversial topic, why humanity will be great with AI. You heard it here first. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
So, um, I'm sure people watching have consumed the news that, you know, it's this weird kind of human American thing, like we're racing towards advancing AI, which we all know will destroy civilization. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
It's a little confusing, Dalton. [laughs] And so we thought maybe we would make the case on how the world would be a better place for this thing that we are racing towards. What do you think?
- DCDalton Caldwell
We are all bombarded with messages-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... about the negative ways that AI is going to hurt us constantly.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- 1:11 – 2:37
How fear shaped AI labs: OpenAI’s origin story and ‘Google will lock it up’
- DCDalton Caldwell
And maybe to start with, let's talk about the history of the labs, and let's talk about the history of AI, 'cause I think this will help give context to how we ended up here. The reason OpenAI was started was-
- MSMichael Seibel
Fear
- DCDalton Caldwell
... fear-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... that Google would create a super intelligence-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and that it would be locked up inside of Google.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And it'd be like if Google had, you know, the infinite money glitch-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and they didn't give it to anyone else.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And that would probably be bad for humanity.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so the very original pitch for the nonprofit was let's create a nonprofit that is open, hence the name OpenAI-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and that the innovations of AI would be shared with humanity.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
It would also be more likely, uh, safe.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
It would be more likely pro-social for humans-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... if it was done in like a nonprofit consortium-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... than locked inside of a corporation.
- MSMichael Seibel
We all think of AI as almost a consumer product now, but it, I don't think that was, the form factor wasn't understood.
- DCDalton Caldwell
No.
- MSMichael Seibel
So when people were afraid of Google having it, it wasn't even clear that they would give it to be honest.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Right. Who would they, what would they use it for?
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] Like it was, it was, that wasn't clear.
- 2:37 – 3:20
Safety culture and the Anthropic split: why ‘AI is dangerous’ became default
- DCDalton Caldwell
Combine that with a lot of the researchers that worked in this stuff, the-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... the LessWrong community and all those folks, safety was a key part of the message boards that the researchers creating this stuff were really worried about.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I'm not saying that's bad, by the way. I'm just saying this infected their brain. This was a huge part of getting into AI, was debating safety-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... constantly. In addition, um, Anthropic, which ended up being pretty important, when it split off from OpenAI, it was the safety folks who I believe at the time argued that they would be more safe than OpenAI and that OpenAI was not safe enough in their approach. Did I, did I miss anything there?
- MSMichael Seibel
That was an explicit argument.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- 3:20 – 4:42
The media incentive problem: algorithms reward fear over nuance
- MSMichael Seibel
And all the news or the vast array of news we consume on AI is filtered through social networks that gets more clicks on negative stories than positive stories.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
So all the original kind of stories were based on fear. All of the way that we consume things, we see more eyeballs based on fear.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep. If you think about the way, um, recommendation algorithms work, [laughs] it is much easier, it would be way easier for us to get on this video and say crazy doom and gloom things
- MSMichael Seibel
You're gonna die tomorrow-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Right?
- MSMichael Seibel
Because of AI
- DCDalton Caldwell
Like we, we could just say really provocative statements-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... that sound like sci-fi, that sound like The Matrix-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and that would surely get more clicks-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... than us being like, "It's gonna be fine."
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
I'm gonna go separately.
- MSMichael Seibel
It's gonna be great. It's gonna be great.
- DCDalton Caldwell
That, that is such a harder thing, um, to have go viral.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so even the, the fundamental algorithms that are recommending content to us are rewarding-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... clickbaity-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... super negative stuff.
- MSMichael Seibel
If you're a normal person, this must be so confusing, right?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
'Cause it's like why are we racing towards the thing that even the creators of the thing think's gonna kill us all?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
That's gotta be the most confusing thing in the world. Whereas I actually think that the other story a lot of people believe and just nobody talks about.
- 4:42 – 5:36
Misinformation case study: the ‘AI drinks all the water’ meme
- DCDalton Caldwell
And simple stories that are easy to understand go more viral-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... like AI is gonna kill us all. One, one example of this is the water thing. I think a huge percentage-
- MSMichael Seibel
Oh, my God
- DCDalton Caldwell
... of people-
- MSMichael Seibel
Ugh
- DCDalton Caldwell
... if the topic of AI comes up-
- MSMichael Seibel
Fuck
- DCDalton Caldwell
... think that, like, the water is-
- MSMichael Seibel
AI drinks water.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs] And if you go and actually, you know, do your own research on this one, the original research had like a, um, numerical error, I believe-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... on how much water was used, and it's like a tiny fraction of how much water, like, golf courses use.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so what, do your own research on this one, but basically somehow if you just talk to normal people-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... they are convinced that AI is gonna evaporate all the water on Earth-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and that they should use, you know, ChatGPT sparingly to save water. [laughs] And so, so again, I'm, we're just setting this up. This is a tricky, um-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... narrative zone that we're in.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. [laughs]
- 5:36 – 6:08
A practical mandate: learn to explain purpose and optimism in an AI future
- DCDalton Caldwell
Um, and so even though it is harder to articulate a positive view of the future with all of these starting conditions, we're gonna try, and we think you all should too.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And that I would argue to prepare yourselves, your children, uh, if you're running a company, your company for the future-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... being able to explain what role and purpose we have in the future and why life matters, and you should be excited about things, is ... completely necessary. [laughs]
- 6:08 – 8:26
Micro benefits: AI as a force multiplier for civic research and parenting creativity
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. I think before getting to the macro, I'd like to start with the micro, right? So with my personal usage of AI, I have been surprised. You know, about a year ago, I started exploring the challenges of the city of San Francisco, and to be honest, without AI, I would've been screwed, right? I had to do effectively years' worth of public policy research to understand our budget, where we spend our money, our health price crisis, like all of these things, and without AI, I would've been stuck.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
I was trying to consume information that no one person had, and so just being able to use AI to do research, to research all of the reporting that the city does, academic reporting, comparative reporting on how other cities deal with drug crises, incredible. The other thing that I was able to do is so much of San Francisco city data is being made available through API online. I'm a business guy. That was useless to me until the last year, and with Claude, suddenly I can see what the city's 311 response time is. I can see how dirty different parts of the city are. I can see which departments are faster or slower. Like, there's so much stuff that I can see to understand what's happening in the city. So for my personal usage, I was just like, well, obviously this is making me more productive. [laughs] Like, it's hard to think that I was a productive person before this. And then watching my kid use AI, you know, I've got a, an, an eighth grader, I'm sorry, eighth grader, an eight-year-old who uses AI, and the amount of creativity, it, it's so weird. Like, in some ways, the amount he's able to explore his imagination, the amount that he's reading, the amount that he's thinking, like he wants to design video games. All kids love designing video games who like video games. He can do it now. And so from a micro perspective, at least in my life, it's like it's so clearly been empowering that like I have to take a step back and basically be like, "All right. Let me separate the narrative from reality. If it's being really empowering in my life and my kid's life, let me maybe search for how it could be empowering for humanity." I don't know. How do you get to this?
- 8:26 – 9:59
From Office Space to meaning: AI could eliminate ‘fake work’ and restore agency
- DCDalton Caldwell
The way I think about it is the following. Um, I think pop culture reflects back to us, like pretty good-
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm
- DCDalton Caldwell
... critiques of what's going on in the world.
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And if you think about-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... great movies like Office Space-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... [laughs] or television shows like The Office-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... I think if you s- if you think about them-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... what they're poking fun at is people that are just like you and me that have agency-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... that wanna do good work-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and that wanna have purpose and meaning in their lives.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And they are trapped in an environment-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... that is stupid and meaningless, and their work has nothing to do with outcomes.
- MSMichael Seibel
No.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And it's just this like, it's literally comedic. It's funny how there is no purpose-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... [laughs] in the work that they do and their coworkers do.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Customers don't matter.
- MSMichael Seibel
No.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Their work doesn't matter.
- MSMichael Seibel
They have perfectly good brains, and their companies are not using them.
- 9:59 – 11:25
Rebuilding org design: empowering the people closest to the problem
- MSMichael Seibel
I would double down on this. You know, in my experience in big companies, the people on the ground who have at least authority of what is built or done often have the most contact with the problem and the customer.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
And we've kind of built companies so the people up here decide what's done, and the people here know what's going on. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs] And like that's-
- MSMichael Seibel
That's modern organizational design, and I would say there's probably a good reason for that because the people down here in one reasonable week of work could only do so much. It was relatively hard for them to have a wide set of skills, et cetera, et cetera, so you gotta compartmentalize, and so you have to coordinate, and people are expensive and da, da, da. And so I don't think this organization is dumb. I think it evolved from the best we could do. Now that person on the ground has the capability of a lot more people.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
To your point, now the person on the ground has a lot more time. I really am excited about how organizations will be built when the people who are closest to the problems have 10X the ability and 10X the time. We shouldn't think that the solutions we have today are good. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Like, like we don't think the solutions we had 100 years ago were good.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
100 years from now, they're gonna look at the stuff that we think is solved today, and they're gonna be like, "That was the dark ages." [laughs]
- 11:25 – 13:26
Labs as a window into the near future: tiny teams, fast shipping, real purpose
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think if a founder were asking me about this in office hours, I think what I would tell them to do is to look to the labs-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... as a little window into the future, maybe not the far future, but maybe 12 months, 18 months ahead of us.
- MSMichael Seibel
Sure.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so let me be specific. How many people that work at the labs have fake email jobs? Maybe more than zero. I don't know, but I'm gonna guess that most people, if you interview them like, "Oh, what do you do at Anthropic?" They're not gonna be like, "Oh, I create PowerPoints."
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. I push paper. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
I push paper. Probably there are not a ton of those people-
- MSMichael Seibel
No
- DCDalton Caldwell
... would be my assumption. Maybe I'm wrong.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I'd also would say that the labs keep hiring people, and that when someone is like Dalton, like, "There's not gonna be any jobs, like these companies are all gonna have one employee, and they're gonna be unicorns," I'm like, "Well, maybe, but-
- MSMichael Seibel
Ooh
- DCDalton Caldwell
... I think the, if the labs keep hiring people- That, that's probably a signal that that's a good idea.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And my mental model for that is if someone is worth more than their salary, if they generate more revenue or more value for the company than what it costs to pay them, why wouldn't you keep doing that? If you're worried about job loss, it's that you don't think that certain job functions could be done on an incremental basis by humans anymore.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah, yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And I don't know, I think that lacks vision [laughs] . Clearly, the labs are, are turning people... So again, to be specific, think about the people that I know being hired at the labs. They're on these tiny teams.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
They're, you know, I know the people working on Codex and other people working on Claude Code, they're on a tiny team, they're talking to users, they're using their own tools, and they're shipping really fast, and they're having a really good time.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And they certainly have a lot of purpose.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And we could argue perhaps too much, but they all-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Just kidding. I'm just saying they all feel like they're on a mission.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so they're so fired up-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... they're working so hard, and they can understand how their personal effort is helping the company and helping the users. And I would argue that is a perfect blueprint for what every company should be th- should be doing or thinking, right?
- 13:26 – 15:23
Incumbents vs AI-native companies: pushing responsibility down vs top-down control
- MSMichael Seibel
Well, and I think this is what's so interesting about startups and about companies that are built from the ground up with AI, is because you can imagine that. Y- you don't even have to imagine it. Like, that is what will organically happen if you believe in AI and you're starting a new company. I think this also represents the challenge in talking to existing companies, right? You know, if I'm trying to pitch AI to a bunch of MBAs that run a large company, and I'm trying to say, like, "Imagine a world where you can have a hundreds of small autonomous teams that can make massive impact," that sounds scary as shit.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
Whereas if I say to them, "Imagine a world where we can fire half your employees," they're like, "Well, stock price, this, that-"
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... "da, da, da, da." I think the companies that embrace these new ways of organization, that embrace pushing responsibility down-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... are gonna thrive. But like we've seen with every tech transformation, some dinosaurs have to die.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Well, and as we're recording this, um, it recently came out that Meta apologized to their employees for dehumanizing them and going so nuts into AI.
- MSMichael Seibel
In a top-down way.
- DCDalton Caldwell
In a top-down way. And so the difference between labs hiring people and giving them-
- MSMichael Seibel
Responsibility and resources [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... is very different than like, "Hey, cool, you work at Meta. Um-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... install this spyware on your computer so we can track your click stream, and now you're on the data labeling team." Not great. And so again, I, I would argue institutions of the future are going to find a way to translate their employees' jobs into giving them meaning, into giving them purpose-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... into giving them agency-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... um, along with the tools to do so, and the people that do that are gonna win. [laughs]
- 15:23 – 16:58
Managers need AI too: using AI to see ground truth and enable delegation
- MSMichael Seibel
Well, and, and I think the big companies that have fear right now, it's like so silly because I understand how you would have fear in a large company where to get information from the ground up, it has to go through eight people's hands, and it's gonna get, the, the, the turd will be shined-
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
... over and over again, right? So you can't really trust the information you're getting, right? But if you're an executive, especially inside of a tech company, you can use AI now to get ground information.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
Right? Like, you have access to your own databa- like you have access to raw customer data. You can monitor what's happening in your company in a way that should give you the confidence to push responsibility down, and like you just have to learn how to use the tools, you know? And, and it was funny, as I was talking to somebody who was at a large t- tech company, and this company was going through a like, "Oh, we need to get all of our employees using AI," and he said something really interesting to me. He's like, "It's probably more important to get the managers using AI than employees."
- DCDalton Caldwell
Hmm.
- MSMichael Seibel
"Because once the managers realize how much the organization can change if they're using AI, like that's when you're gonna actually see the real change, right? If that manager is not AI pilled-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... it almost doesn't matter that their employees are." And I was like, huh, I don't see any company advertising how much does our senior team-
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
... use AI, right? Right? No, but we're the... That's not-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... for us, right? How is it gonna help us? It's gonna help the employees, right? [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
You know, a little bit of what this reminds me of, I, I forget if I've talked about this one in our videos before.
- 16:58 – 19:05
Narratives that attract talent: plumbing, private equity, and making work legible
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm-hmm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
But there was a blog post from a writer at Bloomberg a few years ago that stuck in my brain for years, and he talked about how a lot of businesses in the world could use really bright people to run them-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and that there's actually a lack of talent to run certain businesses where the owners are retiring.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
So the example this writer used was plumbing businesses.
- MSMichael Seibel
Oh, great, yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
You know, there's all these plumbing businesses, the owner needs to sell them, the owner needs to retire, and it's pretty hard to go to the Harvard campus and be like-
- MSMichael Seibel
"Do you wanna do this?"
- DCDalton Caldwell
... "Do you wanna go?" And so his argument is that what private equity is is a whitewashing-
- MSMichael Seibel
Oh
- DCDalton Caldwell
... to put, um, to say like, "Oh, do you want a job in private equity?" And you're like, "Of course, I want it."
- MSMichael Seibel
You can do a plumbing roll-up. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
And, and that a lot of the actual jobs-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... like what you actually do when you go work in private equity is often to work on plumbing companies.
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs] On traditional businesses, yeah.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And that, um, making a job in plumbing legible to-
- MSMichael Seibel
Hmm
- DCDalton Caldwell
... super smart people is actually the function in society-
- MSMichael Seibel
That's interesting
- DCDalton Caldwell
... that private equity firms are producing.
- MSMichael Seibel
I love that because you know what? We still need fucking plumbers. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
It's actually really important.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
And so, so again, where I'm going with this is that the narrative matters so much.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
And that if an organization wants to attract top talent and have that talent feel this is worthy of their time-
- MSMichael Seibel
Hmm
- DCDalton Caldwell
... you have to be- Make it legible to them. You have to give them-
- 19:05 – 21:53
AI as the next ‘science helps’ wave: health, safety, and more time for meaning
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. To wrap this up, if we look back, I, uh, Neil deGrasse Tyson said something that really was funny. He was, like, doing some video on how, like, science actually helps.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Mm-hmm.
- MSMichael Seibel
And he was like, "You know, humanity for thousands and thousands of years, like, our, um, lifespan did not increase. And then, like, in the last 150 years it's increased a lot, and that was science." And like, you're told all these things like plastic or, like, the new agriculture, like, all these things are killing you, but like, objectively [both laughing] like lifespans increased as these things were invented. Science helps. What do you think is the world our kids or grandkids might live in that was made better by AI? Like, what are some of the things that we take for granted right now that our kids or grandkids are gonna be like, "I can't believe-"
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... "that was cool"? [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Well, I mean, to start with healthcare alone and lifespan-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and solving cancer and heart disease, I mean, that's already happening and will only increase-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... of, you know, producing new drugs and new interventions that-
- MSMichael Seibel
How many diseases do we live with today as fait accompli-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... are gonna, people are gonna look back and be like-
- DCDalton Caldwell
100%
- MSMichael Seibel
... "That's weird." [laughs] How about car fatalities?
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yes.
- MSMichael Seibel
Like, there will be a moment when-
- DCDalton Caldwell
It, it's barbaric how many people die right now-
- MSMichael Seibel
[laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
... in car accidents. It's horrible.
- MSMichael Seibel
I remember I used to commute in New York City, and it was just like there is a fatal accident every day.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
And it's on the news, but not, like, as a tragedy, as, like, here's how the traffic [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah
- MSMichael Seibel
... as like, [laughs] here's, here's which highway to take to avoid it. That's gonna seem barbaric.
- DCDalton Caldwell
I think the bar is going to be raised on finding meaning in life, and I think people are gonna have more time and tools to find meaning in what they're doing-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... and to feel like they have the mind space to be creative. Again, if you look at humanity, humans used to have to be, like, farming until the sun went down if you-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yep.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs] There was not a lot of time to do stuff-
- 21:53 – 24:31
Escaping pessimism: Factfulness, skepticism of ‘ulterior motives,’ and a utilitarian takeaway
- DCDalton Caldwell
I, actually, you know what? I think the pushback would be authority figures, people that would go and make a video about a topic like this-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes
- DCDalton Caldwell
... have some deep ulterior motive and agenda of trying to screw people. Like, I think people have this-
- MSMichael Seibel
Mm.
- DCDalton Caldwell
It, you know, somehow every new thing that's gonna come out is somehow gonna screw them. I, somehow that's just baked into people's minds.
- MSMichael Seibel
I'm trying to i- let's say we're the authority figures here for a moment.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah, yeah. We're try-
- MSMichael Seibel
For the purpose
- DCDalton Caldwell
... somehow we're putting out messages that are like we have some devious, uh, intention.
- MSMichael Seibel
Oh, I have to think hard-
- DCDalton Caldwell
That's what they would say
- MSMichael Seibel
... in another video we will describe. [laughs]
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
We have to think hard about our devious intent.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
It's, it's-
- DCDalton Caldwell
But I'm just trying to say, like, when new stuff comes out-
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah
- DCDalton Caldwell
... it's like, oh, they're not really telling you, you know, big, big oil is behind this. There, there's some ulterior motive.
- MSMichael Seibel
And, and, and I just hate this 'cause it, it kinda, it comes back to this narrative that pains me that I think is somehow an American narrative, that, like, things are getting worse when they're actually getting better.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep.
- MSMichael Seibel
And it's, it's, I might have brought this up before. There's a book called Factfulness, and in the beginning of this book there's, like, this 10 or 20 question quiz, and the whole funny part about this quiz is that the author tells you before he gives you the quiz that you will guess pessimistically on all of these questions. And the questions like the average education level of yada, yada, or, you know, the accessibility of electricity, yada. They're all these kind of, like, population global, like, how we're doing questions. And the, he gives you the answer. He's like, "You're gonna guess pessimistic, so whenever you pick an answer, just, like, make, pick more optimistic." And still the vast majority of people underestimate how good the world's doing right now.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yeah.
- MSMichael Seibel
And so I think our kids and grandkids are gonna look back at this hysteria with a little bit of laughter, but also a little bit of sadness, and they're gonna be like, "These backwards people." [laughs] Like they-
- DCDalton Caldwell
They were getting all this good stuff, and they were convinced it was a trick.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yeah. They thought, like, you know, it'd be like us being, like, people who are afraid of electricity. It's like, what are you doing? [laughs] Like, we need that.
- DCDalton Caldwell
[laughs]
- MSMichael Seibel
Can we get like... I will say this. If you're watching this video and, and you're just trying to be utilitarian about it, having a positive view on AI is certainly gonna help you more-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yes
- MSMichael Seibel
... because you're gonna learn how to use it, you're gonna learn how to thrive with it, and you're gonna be around people who might not be.
- 24:31 – 25:36
Closing challenge: build your own optimistic AI story by using it on real problems
- DCDalton Caldwell
I would just challenge everyone in your own life to articulate why you're excited [laughs] and optimistic about how these changes are going to help you to help the next generations and help make that a reality.
- MSMichael Seibel
Yes. Yes.
- DCDalton Caldwell
You know? I-
- MSMichael Seibel
And I, I would say don't take a one-off experience with AI a year ago and make it your entire experience with AI, right? Like, understand this is changing. For any of you who are kind of as old as us, like, the internet got a lot better in the '90s, and then it got a lot better in the 2000s [laughs] and, like, if you just took a snapshot of the internet in 1995 and you're like, "That's internet," you're kinda missing-
- DCDalton Caldwell
Yep
- MSMichael Seibel
... the boat here. And so I actually think one way to get really positive about AI is to use it to solve a problem in your own life, and, like, you might be shocked, [laughs] um, how good it can be.
- DCDalton Caldwell
Cool.
- MSMichael Seibel
Cheers.
- DCDalton Caldwell
All right. Thanks, Michael. [upbeat music]
Episode duration: 25:37
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Transcript of episode M-4mLXkkxPA
