Dalton + Michael

Is My Startup Growing Fast Enough?

Founders may have internalized the idea that if their startup isn't growing as fast as Cursor they are going to fail. In this episode, Dalton + Michael discuss if there is any truth behind this feeling, and discuss some of the fuzziness around growth metrics for AI startups. If you want to learn more about Sam Altman's "bubble bet", here is his blogpost from 2015: https://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk Dalton + Michael is brought to you by @Standard_Cap Dalton Caldwell on X: https://x.com/daltonc Michael Seibel on X: https://x.com/mwseibel

Dalton Caldwellhost

Dec 14, 202512mWatch on YouTube ↗

WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT

Benchmark startup growth properly, ignore hype, and focus on fundamentals

AI products and AI-enabled B2B tools are genuinely achieving unusually fast adoption and revenue growth because the capability jump is massive and buyers will pay for clear value.
Publicly cited “ARR” and growth numbers are often inflated or misleading due to annualizing cancellable usage, counting pilots/LOIs, and other creative accounting.
Founders should compare their growth to true direct peers (their category, sales motion, and market constraints) rather than headline outliers like Cursor.
In early, fast-changing cycles it’s difficult even for insiders to predict which companies will be durable winners, so founders shouldn’t overreact to today’s leaderboard.
The right response to slower growth is neither despair nor complacency: use new tools to create more customer value, and pivot thoughtfully if evidence suggests it’s necessary.

IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING

5 ideas

Benchmark against true comparables, not famous outliers.

Investors and markets judge companies relative to direct peers in the same category and with similar go-to-market constraints; comparing an enterprise, non-self-serve product to a self-serve dev tool will distort decisions and morale.

Treat headline ARR/growth metrics with skepticism.

Usage-based spend can disappear overnight, pilots may not convert, and annualizing short-term signals can overstate traction; focus on contract quality, retention, margins, and what is truly recurring.

Real AI-driven growth exists—but it’s not evenly distributed.

Some products are objectively far better than what existed a few years ago, enabling rapid adoption and spend, but that doesn’t imply every startup should (or can) match those growth curves.

Don’t let “if you’re not 10x you’re dead” memes drive strategy.

The episode frames this as self-defeating founder psychology amplified by social media and marketing; shutting down a strong category leader because it’s not matching a different category’s curve is often a mistake.

In early platform shifts, durability is hard to predict—even for experts.

They cite past “declared winners” (e.g., Yahoo, Palm, AOL/Netscape) to argue that today’s leaders can fade and underdogs can emerge, so optimize for learning and compounding rather than scoreboard panic.

WORDS WORTH SAVING

5 quotes

These days, annual recurring revenue is often not annual, nor recurring, nor revenue.

— Dalton Caldwell

You’re gonna be judged relative to your direct peers.

— Dalton Caldwell

We’re not growing as fast as Cursor, so therefore we should pivot or do another idea.

— Dalton Caldwell

When the game’s early… it’s hard to predict what will have staying power.

— Dalton Caldwell

Better tools are coming out every day… Don’t be discouraged… and don’t be accepting of slow growth.

— Michael

AI-era hypergrowth and capability leapsARR definition problems and “creative accounting”Peer benchmarking and comparablesSales motion differences (enterprise vs self-serve)Cycle dynamics: late-stage SaaS vs early-platform erasUncertainty of “winners” and product stickinessPivots driven by better tools and renewed customer value

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