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Dalton + MichaelDalton + Michael

Shockingly Good Predictions

Most people focus on predictions that were too optimistic. But some of the most interesting moments in tech are when reality completely blows past expectations. In this episode of Dalton + Michael, the two discuss times when an expectation was off in this way. Topics discussed include the investing outside of Silicon Valley, Sam Altman’s nuclear energy vision, Sam’s hiring advice, and the extent to which customers of a product care more about growth potential than cost savings. Dalton + Michael is brought to you by @Standard_Cap Dalton Caldwell on X: https://x.com/daltonc Michael Seibel on X: https://x.com/mwseibel

Dalton CaldwellhostMichael Seibelhost
Feb 16, 202620mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. DC

    Companies like Google could become completely irrelevant.

  2. MS

    Yeah.

  3. DC

    Or they could just become juggernauts even-

  4. MS

    Yeah

  5. DC

    ... more.

  6. MS

    Yeah.

  7. DC

    They're not like institutions that are gonna last no matter what happens. That's what I'm trying to say.

  8. MS

    Yes.

  9. DC

    I think they seem, like, infallible.

  10. MS

    Yes.

  11. DC

    They felt like, I don't know.

  12. MS

    They have to keep winning.

  13. DC

    Yes. [laughs]

  14. MS

    [laughs]

  15. DC

    Yes.

  16. MS

    This is Dalton + Michael. Today, we're gonna talk about predictions that turned out way better than we ever could have imagined, specifically ones that maybe in hindsight look a little bit more obvious, but at the time o- one or both of us didn't quite rock. I remember one of YC's LPs, um, very large LPs, said to me, "Historically, the venture market, something like 97% of returns are generated in the US market." And I remember thinking to myself, like I always do, like, "Eh, that doesn't really align with my current thesis, so I don't believe it." [laughs]

  17. DC

    [laughs] Discard. Opinion discarded.

  18. MS

    [laughs]

  19. DC

    Brr.

  20. MS

    You know, it's a superpower for a startup founder. [laughs]

  21. DC

    Brr.

  22. MS

    I'm embarrassed I didn't realize how good the US was. We're so privileged to live in a market that is kinda just really big.

  23. DC

    Yep.

  24. MS

    That I could just blind myself to my own privilege and be like, "No, it's just as easy to build a billion-dollar company somewhere else." And it's like, is it? No. It's not. Not that you can't do it. It's just not just as easy.

  25. DC

    It's definitely not.

  26. MS

    It's not just as easy. What were your thoughts, by the way, back then? 'Cause, like, we invest in a lot of international companies.

  27. DC

    Yeah, we did. Um-

  28. MS

    So, domestic.

  29. DC

    I think-

  30. MS

    Some of them are doing really well.

Episode duration: 20:51

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