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The Diary of a CEO

Billionaire's WARNING: I'm SELLING. The Crash Is Already Here!

The man who predicted the dot-com crash and the 2007 housing collapse warns that the AI bubble is the biggest in American history.

Steven BartletthostJeremy Granthamguest

Jun 25, 20261h 45mWatch on YouTube ↗

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CHAPTERS

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Chapter summaries

Cold open: ‘Don’t own US stocks’ + sell US tech, avoid crypto, SpaceX skepticism
Steven opens with rapid-fire investing questions and Jeremy Grantham delivers blunt, headline-grabbing answers: avoid US stocks (including the S&P 500), sell big US tech exposure, and steer clear of crypto. Grantham also pokes at SpaceX’s valuation narrative, setting the tone for a conversation about bubbles and hype.
- •Advises against owning US equities, including the S&P 500
- •Says investors with large US tech positions should consider selling
- •Calls crypto unnecessary/volatile and predicts Bitcoin goes to zero eventually
- •Frames SpaceX as an example of euphoric narrative and exaggerated markets
Grantham’s 60-year track record and why bubbles keep happening
Grantham recounts his long career managing institutional money and explains his core edge: a long-term lens and skepticism about perpetual growth. He argues humans are systematically short-term, optimistic, and prone to extrapolate good times—fertile ground for bubbles.
- •60 years investing; peak AUM cited earlier as $165B
- •Long-horizon, high-level “what are people missing?” approach
- •Humans are biased toward optimism and avoiding unpleasant truths
- •Compound growth on a finite planet is a flawed assumption
AI as a world-changing technology—and why that makes it perfect bubble fuel
Grantham argues that the biggest bubbles form around the most transformative ideas (railroads, internet), because capital floods in faster than real returns can justify. He warns the AI trade shows classic late-bubble characteristics and could peak soon on a historical timeline.
- •Great bubbles cluster around defining innovations, not scams
- •Railroads/internet changed the world yet still produced stock crashes
- •AI described as the biggest US investment bubble by his indicators
- •Timing is uncertain, but “compatible with history” for a near-ish peak
How he built an investing empire, became a billionaire, and gave most away
Grantham outlines his early career, the evolution of modern investing styles (value, small-cap, indexing), and the growth of his firm. He also explains his philanthropy: giving ~90–95% of his wealth to an environmental foundation investing in climate solutions.
- •Entered investing in 1968; describes professionalization of the field
- •Helped popularize value, small-cap, and early indexing concepts
- •Personal wealth exceeded $1B; emphasizes he paid tax on it
- •Grantham Foundation focuses on environmental protection and green tech
If the bubble breaks: what crashes look like and a practical diversification playbook
Grantham describes how ‘high flyers’ typically fall the most and connects major historical busts (1929, Nifty Fifty, Japan 1989) to long, painful aftermaths. He then shifts to actionable basics: diversify across cash, bonds, metals, and be cautious about property at today’s prices.
- •High-momentum AI/tech names historically decline the most in busts
- •Cites precedents: Nasdaq -82% in 2000; Japan took decades to recover
- •Diversification: cash, bonds, and a small allocation to precious metals
- •Explains bonds plainly and how individuals can buy Treasuries directly
Why he says ‘avoid US stocks’—and why advisors won’t tell you that
Grantham argues US equities are exceptionally overpriced versus the rest of the world and that forward returns could be poor for years. He claims the advisory industry is structurally disincentivized from recommending market exits, and shares a story from the 1999 bubble to illustrate the conflict.
- •Prefers non-US markets on valuation grounds; says they’ve recently outperformed
- •Warns US equities could deliver negative real returns over long windows
- •Advisors rarely say “get out” because it’s bad business and career-risky
- •1999 anecdote: analysts privately expected a valuation mean reversion but public messaging stayed bullish
Entrepreneurs: raise cash now + Keynes, momentum, and why markets aren’t ‘efficient’
Steven asks what founders should do if capital tightens; Grantham endorses raising money while it’s available and building conservatism. They discuss Keynes, the limits of efficient-market logic, and how momentum and psychology often dominate price.
- •Founder advice: lock in funding; prepare for tougher conditions
- •Markets driven by psychology and ‘what the other guy will pay’
- •Momentum attracts buyers until it doesn’t—fuel for bubbles
- •Career risk and institutional incentives reinforce herd behavior
The real risks of AI: benevolence, moral constraints, and the ‘paperclip’ problem
The discussion turns from markets to AI safety: experts disagree on whether AI brings abundance or catastrophe. They debate whether ‘benevolence’ can be built into systems without creating competitive disadvantages, and unpack the classic misalignment ‘paperclip maximizer’ scenario.
- •No consensus among top experts on AI outcomes—utopia vs existential risk
- •Benevolence is hard to define and implement across cultures/values
- •Examples of AI becoming ‘parental’ or judgmental through alignment attempts
- •Paperclip thought experiment: literal goal pursuit can cause catastrophic unintended consequences
Magnificent 7: from separate monopolies to a brutal AI arms race
Grantham contrasts the Mag 7’s past dominance in distinct markets with a future where they collide head-on in AI. He frames the current moment as an expensive battle for survival—massive capex, borrowing, and uncertain winners.
- •Backward look: each Mag 7 firm had a strong moat/near-monopoly
- •Forward look: all competing in the same AI arena with huge spending
- •Capex escalation and borrowing increases fragility and pressure
- •Unclear winner; some may try to opt out rather than fight
Sponsor break: building content systems and sales systems
Steven pauses for sponsor segments covering AI-assisted content creation and CRM systems. The interlude is positioned as practical tools for creators and founders.
- •Stan Store’s ‘Stanley’ tool for AI-assisted social posting
- •Pipedrive as a sales CRM for visibility and process management
- •Emphasis on systems that reduce dependence on the founder
- •Return to AI’s societal impact afterward
Robots, jobs, and SpaceX: why Grantham calls it peak-euphoria storytelling
Steven describes rapid progress in robotics and asks about job displacement; Grantham agrees disruption is likely and worries about energy demand and societal danger if everything scales fast. They then debate SpaceX/Elon: engineering brilliance versus hype, valuation narratives, and what it signals about a market top.
- •Humanoid robots + cheap AI imply significant labor displacement risk
- •Grantham prefers slower tech rollout to ‘buy time’ for governance and adaptation
- •SpaceX framed as exaggerated ‘addressable market’ storytelling and bubble behavior
- •Elon/Tesla example: stock narrative can finance real outcomes (self-fulfilling prophecy)
Most valuable skills for the future—and signs society may be fraying
Asked what he’d advise young people to learn, Grantham emphasizes practical, resilient skills (engineering, repair, food systems) and climate-related work. He argues modern life is getting harder—housing, services, and social cohesion—and people should plan for a tougher baseline.
- •Skill advice: engineering, practical trades, science, climate work
- •Preparedness mindset: build cash buffers and useful capabilities
- •Uses public-service degradation (e.g., ambulance times) as a ‘fraying edges’ signal
- •Community and local networks matter more in unstable periods
Inequality and the ‘reset’ risk: taxes, history, and how to build wealth anyway
Grantham and Steven examine wealth inequality, why it destabilizes societies, and what history suggests happens when gaps get extreme. They discuss policy levers (more progressive taxation) and pivot to personal wealth-building: riding major waves like AI, taking risk, but investing defensively in a bubble-prone market.
- •Inequality since ~1975: gains concentrated at the top; middle discontent rises
- •Historical ‘resets’ often come through war/collapse/revolution rather than gentle reform
- •Policy suggestion: restore more progressive tax-and-transfer balance
- •Personal wealth: learn the frontier (AI), work hard, take calculated risk, distrust authority-by-default
Sponsor break then the baby bust: sperm-count collapse, microplastics, pesticides, and what to do
After a brief sponsor interlude, the conversation shifts to fertility decline and environmental toxicity. Grantham cites accelerating sperm-count drops, links them to endocrine disruptors (plastics, PFAS, BPA/phthalates) and pesticides, then offers practical mitigation advice—especially for pregnancy. They close on the ‘social contract,’ where to live for safety nets, and Grantham’s ambition to write a ‘Silent Spring’-style book on toxicity and family-friendly societies.
- •Sperm counts: large long-term decline; projections imply major fertility strain within decades
- •Primary suspects: plastics/microplastics, endocrine disruptors, PFAS/BPA/phthalates, plus pesticides
- •Action steps: prioritize detox during pregnancy; reduce cosmetics; choose organic for ‘dirty dozen’ produce
- •Regulation gap: EU bans far more chemicals than the US; ties to health/life expectancy outcomes
- •Social contract and safety nets: Denmark/Japan/parts of Europe cited as stronger models; ends with desire to write an influential book on toxicity and pro-family society

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