Mike Baker: How CIA tradecraft reads China, Iran, Russia

1. 0:00 – 2:04

   Intro

   1. MBMike Baker0:00

      (instrumental music plays) China is at war with the West already, we just don't see it. And when I look at a map like this, I see a lot of problems. Here is one issue. Over there, Putin is threatening nuclear weapons. And then this regime has been engaged in assassination plots on the president-elect. And then over here, this is looming, right, it's a major issue.

   2. SBSteven Bartlett0:18

      Who's the real enemy of the West in your opinion?

   3. MBMike Baker0:20

      I've talked to a number of experts and their take is-

   4. SBSteven Bartlett0:23

      It's them. How do you think this ends?

   5. MBMike Baker0:27

      Um ... (clears throat)

   6. NANarrator0:29

      Ex-CIA officer, Mike Baker, spent decades in the field mastering the spy skills you need to achieve success in business and everyday life.

   7. SBSteven Bartlett0:36

      And offers unique insights into the looming geopolitical threats that's facing the West. When you left the CIA, you started being a spy for companies. Why?

   8. MBMike Baker0:45

      Because at its core, the CIA's responsibility is to get intelligence. Because without that, you cannot make smart, strategic decisions. And if you can sell the idea to somebody that they should commit treason on their country and betray their family to gather intelligence and protect US national security interests, then that's an incredible skill to use in selling a business. And there's a lot of ways you can do this. People are capable of it, more so than they realize. But there's a lot of similarities between what I used to do in the spy world and what you do in business. There's targeting, manipulation, psychology of how people think, identifying weaknesses and leverage, how to close the deal. The most important thing I took away was what I refer to as getting off the x, and that's how you get companies to stay with you for 20 years.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett1:26

      Let's go through all of them.

   10. MBMike Baker1:28

       First of all, you start with ... (music stops)

   11. SBSteven Bartlett1:30

       This has always blown my mind a little bit, 53% of you that listen to this show regularly haven't yet subscribed to the show. So could I ask you for a favor before we start? If you like the show and you like what we do here and you wanna support us, the free, simple way that you can do just that is by hitting the subscribe button. And my commitment to you is, if you do that, that I'll do everything in my power, me and my team, to make sure that this show is better for you every single week. We'll listen to your feedback, we'll find the guests that you want me to speak to, and we'll continue to do what we do. Thank you so much. (instrumental music plays) Mike,

2. 2:04 – 2:34

   Who Is Mike Baker?

   1. SBSteven Bartlett2:05

      who are you? And give me a couple of sentences on the journey of your career and what it's exposed you to.

   2. MBMike Baker2:15

      I'm, uh, a dude who's been very fortunate in life. Um, I started with the CIA, uh, at an early age, not necessarily expecting to start with the CIA in the operations directorate.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett2:27

      And you, you joined the CIA at 22 years old?

   4. MBMike Baker2:30

      Yeah, basically. Um, early '80s, beginning of the '80s.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett2:33

      What was

3. 2:34 – 4:07

   What Is The CIA?

   1. SBSteven Bartlett2:34

      your ... How would you sort of encapsulate your mission into a couple of sentences during that time?

   2. MBMike Baker2:39

      This is gonna sound really weird. To do whatever I was instructed to do, um, to further, um, the mission objectives. So, and what I mean by that is, that's not just me or another officer or somebody else in there, that's their job. So the CIA doesn't set priorities, it doesn't set, uh, tasking, right? That's done by the White House, um, and those in the White House, in the government at the time, the administration at the time, for setting the priorities, tasking. And that's, in part, obviously guided by intelligence provided by the intelligence community, so it's, it's a symbiotic relationship. But the tasking comes into the agency and the agency says, "Fine, get on with it." And that could be a collection of intelligence on a particular subject, and so you could be talking about, "We need to know what, uh, Putin's plans and intentions are." Or, "We need to know what's the, uh, breakout time for the Iranian regime to actually, uh, reach, uh, weapons capability for their nuclear program." Whatever the tasking is, right? It comes into the agency, the agency then, "Fine, let's get busy with it." And there's other elements of the intel community all working very hard to accomplish that same thing. So it could be NSA is also working on it, it could be military intelligence is also working on it. There's, there's a lot of moving parts. But, uh, my part was, was at the agency.

4. 4:07 – 4:21

   Did Mike Spend A Lot Of Time Overseas For The CIA?

   1. MBMike Baker4:07

   2. SBSteven Bartlett4:07

      So did you have to spend a lot of time overseas? And if so, if you were overseas, what were you doing overseas?

   3. MBMike Baker4:12

      Yeah, uh, I spent, uh, my entire time, um ... I never had a, what we would call a headquarters tour, so I spent all my time overseas traveling.

5. 4:21 – 8:17

   What Was Mike's Day-To-Day Like At The CIA?

   1. MBMike Baker4:21

   2. SBSteven Bartlett4:21

      What was your day-to-day like? Because it's just, it's just a world so far away from anything that I know, so I'm like, you spend all that time in the CIA overseas. When you wake up in the morning, are you, are you undercover? If you're in a foreign country, presumably they don't know that you're part of the CIA.

   3. MBMike Baker4:36

      Well, no, we have different types of, of operations and different types of things. I mean, so you can, you could end up living in a, in a foreign country for two or three years, right? You got a home there, and you're, you know, you're working there. And, and, um, other times it could be a short one-off operation where you're just dropping in to do something in particular. Maybe to meet an asset, or whatever it might be.

   4. SBSteven Bartlett5:00

      What's an asset?

   5. MBMike Baker5:00

      An asset is a, is a source. Uh, is a recruited source. So, um ... that's a good point. There's, there's misconception sometimes in vocabulary, right? So they'll say, "CIA agent." Well, in reality, it's a CIA officer. The agent is the person that's been recruited, or the asset, um, the, the human source. And so that's, and that's a, that's a, an incredible skill, right? To be able to go out and you have to, you have to identify, first of all, you start with what's, what's the information you're looking for? And that's the fascinating thing. This, it turns out that what I used to do and, and what we do in, in my business, which is, you know, intelligence and investigations, um, security services, is pretty much the same thing. What information does a client, in the CIA's case that's the US government, what information does the client need? Uh, where does it reside? Who has access to it? And how can you get ahold of it appropriately, right? So how can you get that information?You identify the target, then you figure out, you know, what you need to do to, uh, develop potentially a relationship. You develop that relationship, then you r- if you're fortunate enough, you recruit that asset, that person. Could be a deputy foreign minister, could be a senior military officer. It could be, could be a cab driver, you know, who, uh, can tell you everything that's happening in a particular neighborhood of interest. Whatever it might be. Um, but that process of that, that recruitment cycle, um, of the spotting, you know, targeting, development, recruitment, running. Then you've gotta maintain that relationship. And the interesting thing is, um, oftentimes, particularly when you're talking about a really, a really important asset, someone who's in a position of access, um, maybe because they've risen up through their own government, right? That, that window from the minute you get them on board, you set the hook, you get them recruited, and they start reporting, taking tasking, that window starts to close. And there's a clock that, that's ticking, because usually that's a ... It can be a corrosive thing on, on a person's in- you know, character, right? On, on, on their, on their, their being, right? So, you recruit a, you recruit a Russian, right? Um, you're, you're always in the back of your mind thinking, "Okay, you know, how long do we have here, right? Before ..." Because it, it, it's ... Unless they're a psychotic, right? (laughs)

   6. SBSteven Bartlett7:37

      (laughs)

   7. MBMike Baker7:37

      Then, then, then they don't care. They don't give a shit.

   8. SBSteven Bartlett7:39

      Mm-hmm.

   9. MBMike Baker7:39

      They'll, they'll be happy to, to, to do this. But it's not a normal thing, right?

   10. SBSteven Bartlett7:43

       Mm-hmm.

   11. MBMike Baker7:43

       So, to be able to convince somebody, to sell the idea to somebody that they should, uh, they should, um, c- essentially commit treason on their country, right? Um, is, is a remarkable thing. I've always felt, anyway. So then when I went into business, you know, the idea of, of business development, of selling, seemed like, f- sure. (laughs) That's a, that's an easy lift, right? Because you know, that's, that ... Anyway, I'm disappearing down a rabbit hole.

   12. SBSteven Bartlett8:16

       No,

6. 8:17 – 13:01

   How Does Mike Convince Someone To Become A Spy?

   1. SBSteven Bartlett8:17

      you're not. I mean, this is exactly the rabbit hole that I wanted to go down, because I mean, this is The Diary of a CEO, so I do want to understand how you think about selling, because that seems like the hardest thing to sell. To get s- you know, p- potentially a Russian to commit treason against their country, I'm thinking, "God, what are, what are you offering them in te- in terms of an incentive?" Um, so would, would your job in that be to convince them, or would it be to go and meet them to collect the information, or would it be s- something else?

   2. MBMike Baker8:43

      Could be all of those.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett8:44

      All of those things. Okay.

   4. MBMike Baker8:44

      Could be all of those. And then part of it depends on where, what location. I mean, sometimes you have, you have difficult places. Obviously, it's more difficult to work in, in, um, a challenging environment like ...

   5. SBSteven Bartlett8:56

      Mm-hmm.

   6. MBMike Baker8:57

      Um, pick a place. I mean, right now, current conflicts, think about working in, uh, Lebanon, right?

   7. SBSteven Bartlett9:02

      Yeah.

   8. MBMike Baker9:02

      If you're developing or working with a source. I don't ... There's not a lot of potential recruits for Hezbollah right now. (laughs) They don't ... Even though there's headroom, they don't ... I don't, I don't think there's a lot of willing people wanting to take some of those jobs. But, but the point being is, is, uh, that, um, you could end up doing all of those things. You might have spotted somebody. You might develop them, you might recruit them, right? And you're gonna handle them for a while. Uh, maybe then you're gonna head off someplace else, and someone else is gonna come in and take over that relationship. That's also a crucial point, right? Because you know, if you've developed a, a, a personal relationship with somebody, uh, to the point where they're going, "Yeah, I guess I can do that. I can provide you with intelligence on this or that," right? Because think about it. They're not just betraying, they're not betraying their country, right? I've always thought about this, uh, particularly when we're talking about traitors here, uh, in the States, right? When we, you, uh, you know, Edley Howard, uh, Jim Nicholson, right? Um-

   9. SBSteven Bartlett10:00

      Who are these people?

   10. MBMike Baker10:00

       Hanson. These are all traitors to the US, right?

   11. SBSteven Bartlett10:03

       Oh, okay. So-

   12. MBMike Baker10:03

       So, um, moles, whatever you wanna call them, within the, uh, agency. Hanson was a, at the FBI, one of the most destructive traitors we ever had. But-

   13. SBSteven Bartlett10:13

       What did he do?

   14. MBMike Baker10:14

       Um, he, uh, interestingly enough, um, was a longtime FBI agent who, um, w- he was responsible for, uh, counterintelligence to some degree, uh, for a big degree, uh, related to the former Soviet Union and to Russia. Um, and so he had a tremendous amount of knowledge about how the Russian service worked, right? And then eventually, he ended up, uh, allowing ... Uh, he wasn't even recruited. He offered his services. But he offered them in such a way, because he understood how they worked, that he was able to do it without the, the Russians knowing who he was, right? So, it was a very remote relationship, and he controlled it, which is fascinating. Which allowed him to then do this for a very long period of time, and, and betray a number of, of, uh, of, of our Russian assets. And those people didn't have a happy ending. And so, um, but the, the idea is that you look at those people, or you look at anybody who does that, right? They're not just betraying their country. They're betraying their, their service. They're betraying their family, they're all ... All these things, because it's a, it's a fascinating psychology, and if you don't think about that, if you don't understand that, then I think it's hard to, to, to close the deal w- with anybody. Um ...

   15. SBSteven Bartlett11:37

       What is that deal? So in the case of the gentleman you mentioned who was a traitor to the US, is he getting paid? Is it money that they're doing it for?

   16. MBMike Baker11:45

       Yeah, he was, he was getting paid. He had some issues. He was, he was kind of a quirky individual. He was spending a lot of money on a mistress, or someone who he imagined to be his mistress.

   17. SBSteven Bartlett11:53

       Oh.

   18. MBMike Baker11:53

       And, um, motivation can be a difficult thing, right? Sometimes. And sometimes it's a very straightforward thing. It's usually not ideology.

   19. SBSteven Bartlett12:02

       Interesting.

   20. MBMike Baker12:03

       Yeah.I know, that, that, I, I had the same thought when, when I first started. And, and they kinda went through this process of saying, "What are motivations?" Well, money is a big one, so you've got... You know, and then, ideology, not so much. Uh, sometimes it could be something as simple as they've got a sick kid and they can't get treatment for the kid in whatever country they happen to reside in. Sometimes it's, it's, it's more base than that. They just, they, they don't feel like they got enough hugs from their employer, or they feel disrespected by their-

   21. SBSteven Bartlett12:35

       Mm-hmm.

   22. MBMike Baker12:35

       ... their, their, their, their government or whatever. You, you have to be able to identify those weaknesses, and then you have to be willing to, to play on 'em, quite frankly.

   23. SBSteven Bartlett12:43

       And so on the point of identification-

   24. MBMike Baker12:45

       Mm-hmm.

   25. SBSteven Bartlett12:46

       ... if you met me-

   26. MBMike Baker12:47

       Mm-hmm.

   27. SBSteven Bartlett12:47

       ... and I was an asset? Is that... That's the word, right?

   28. MBMike Baker12:51

       Um, you would be, y- I mean, uh, you know, if we had just met-

   29. SBSteven Bartlett12:53

       Yeah.

   30. MBMike Baker12:54

       Yeah. You would, you would be a potential, a potential source-
7. 13:01 – 19:37

   How Mike Recruits A Source

   1. SBSteven Bartlett13:01

      got... I'm a cab driver and I drive a high-ranking official, and every day in the car he's telling me everything that's going on, he's just offloading.

   2. MBMike Baker13:08

      Mm-hmm.

   3. SBSteven Bartlett13:09

      So you wanna recruit me, right?

   4. MBMike Baker13:10

      Yeah.

   5. SBSteven Bartlett13:11

      So how would you go about recruiting me?

   6. MBMike Baker13:13

      Well, theoretically it's, it's just gonna be, I'm gonna find something that you're interested in.

   7. SBSteven Bartlett13:17

      How?

   8. MBMike Baker13:18

      And then I'm gonna be a... A conversation. It's as simple as that.

   9. SBSteven Bartlett13:20

      So you might get in my cab one day?

   10. MBMike Baker13:22

       Yeah. And then I'll, I'll just get in your cab and we'll start talking. And people love... Y- this, you, I mean, you're probably on planes as much as I am, um, people love to talk, right? And they love to talk about themselves, right? So if you get, if, if you just ask questions, right? If that's all you do. You don't have to say anything about yourself, right? I don't know how many thousands of conversations I've had where, you know, someone says, "So what do you do?" And I said, "Eh, I just..." You know, I'll give them some bullshit. I mean, not now, but, you know. Y- and, uh, as soon as you give them something that doesn't sound interesting, then fine, now you got a, a runway. Then you just turn it on, onto them and say, "So what do you do?" People wanna talk about themselves. It's, it's, it's striking sometimes. And, I mean, we find this all the time and it's just information gathering, right? Like if we, if we have a client and they say, uh, "We've got a, a business in..." Pick a place. Let's, just, just for grins let's say China. "We've got an investment that we've made in China." Uh, but it doesn't, it's not making sense, right? We're not seeing what we thought we were gonna see from the revenues or from the, the, the production, whatever. "What's going on?" Well, if we have someone rock up at that factory or that manufacturing facility or whatever, and outside the, outside the factory is just rows of, of noodle shops or whatever, you know, food trucks, or whatever you wanna call them. But there's a, maybe there's a security guard or, you know, some people just sitting around. They love to talk, right? Because they've got nothing else going on in their day, right? And so the information you can get from people, whether it's a security guard sitting in a booth all day long who's suddenly gonna tell you, "Well, no, the plant is only up and operating Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays." Or, you know, "This is, this is the number of trucks that are coming out." The, you know, little benign stuff that, that no one's gonna think anything of. The amount of information you can gather from people, um, maybe it's someone who's working as a cleaner in a building, maybe it's a cab driver, it doesn't matter. Um, you know, it's, it's a secretary in a business, right? You're, you're looking for people with access who, um, they're just gonna be inclined to talk, right? Uh, it, uh, it sounds odd sometimes, but you get that conversation going, you find things that the person's interested in, then you start mirroring that perhaps. "Maybe that, oh, m- you know, I'm interested in that too. Maybe I'm not, maybe I find it boring as hell."

   11. SBSteven Bartlett15:48

       Mm-hmm.

   12. MBMike Baker15:49

       There was one where it was like chess. It was like, "Goddamn, I hate chess." But-

   13. SBSteven Bartlett15:53

       (laughs)

   14. MBMike Baker15:53

       ... but the guy was really into chess, right? And, uh, it was overseas and, and, uh, we were drinking and, uh, bumped into him at the bar and, and, uh, you know, we started talking and, uh, turns out that his, his passion was chess. Suddenly my passion is chess. (laughs) Problem is, you gotta demonstrate there, right? (laughs) And I sucked at it. So-

   15. SBSteven Bartlett16:16

       (laughs)

   16. MBMike Baker16:17

       ... that was a quick, a quick, uh, crash course in how to at least make myself-

   17. SBSteven Bartlett16:21

       Get interest.

   18. MBMike Baker16:22

       ... look somewhat reasonable. Um, but then, and then you're just looking for other points of, of, of, of access. And, and what that turns into is points of leverage. So that sounds... Uh, you know, if you, once you take it far enough down the, the, the walk, it can sound very mercenary, right? And it is. You're talking about, again, asking people to do something that's not necessarily in their best interests, but you're doing it for a very stated purpose. Now, a- again, a lot of people will listen to this and go, "That's just bullshit. You're just doing it for the man, right? You're doing it for the government." And okay, well, you know what? Nations that are hostile to US interests or UK's interest or Australia's interest or Canada's interest or Europe's interest, they're doing this all the time, and they're doing it a lot more aggressively and with no guardrails-

   19. SBSteven Bartlett17:14

       Mm-hmm.

   20. MBMike Baker17:14

       ... about how they behave, right? So yeah. Yeah.

   21. SBSteven Bartlett17:19

       So I'm that cab driver. I start offloading to you because you've got me talking. You've told me your, your, you know, you've said your career's not interesting.

   22. MBMike Baker17:25

       Mm-hmm.

   23. SBSteven Bartlett17:25

       I start talking. At what point do you l- seek out that leverage? So at some point you're looking for him to maybe say his son's sick or something, right?

   24. MBMike Baker17:33

       Mm-hmm. Well, I mean, y- yeah. Uh, it, it's something along those lines, or you're just looking for... You're looking for, um, y- you're building a profile of the person's personality, right? So you're trying to understand what's important to them, you're trying to understand what drives them, you're trying to understand where their problems are, you know? Uh, you're trying to understand if they have any grievances. You're looking for... You're really just building a, a, a, a map of what this per- person is like.

   25. SBSteven Bartlett17:57

       You're not gonna get that in one taxi ride though, are you?

   26. MBMike Baker17:59

       Oh, no, no, no. Not at all. Not at all. So what do you wanna do? You wanna, you wanna have a, you wanna have a reason to, uh-... ud, uh, meet up again, right? You're always looking at the- in simple terms. You know, you get that first (slaps hands) encounter. What do you want? Well, you want a second encounter, so you gotta find some reason for that. Now, sometimes it's easier than other times, right? Like, so, you know, you can't, um, uh, you know, you can't always get that, but that's what you're looking for, another reason to meet back up with that individual, seemingly just for no other reason than it just happens, right? Or, or, uh, y- I mean, uh, it's like y- This morning, I got in a car, right? Um, it was an Uber, and at the end of the, the, uh, the drive, the guy gives me his card. He says, uh, "Hey, uh, you know, if, if you ever need a ride, whatever, um, you know, I've got a couple of cars, and so I, you know, this is kinda what I do. Plus I do the dri- Uber. I like that as well." Um, and so now, yeah, fine. I can give him a call back, right? And, and I've done that overseas in cases where I've said, "Look, I'd, you know, I need to know that I can get from point A to point B tomorrow. Can I just call you rather than hope that I catch a cab?"

   27. SBSteven Bartlett19:10

       Mm-hmm.

   28. MBMike Baker19:10

       There's a lotta ways you can do this. It's not, uh, uh, it's not rocket science, you know, but it can be, um ... it can be, uh, difficult when you're talking about a high value target.

   29. SBSteven Bartlett19:22

       Yeah.

   30. MBMike Baker19:22

       Right? Yeah, yeah.
8. 19:37 – 21:36

   What Do They Train You To Be Good At In The CIA?

   1. MBMike Baker19:37

      Yeah.

   2. SBSteven Bartlett19:37

      Yeah. So your training, they, they f- they find you at 22 years old, I hear. What do they train you to be good at?

   3. MBMike Baker19:45

      There's everything from, um, tradecraft, which is a key part of it, and tradecraft encompasses a lot of things, right? It's, it's how do you conduct yourself overseas? How do you do clandestine communications? Um ...

   4. SBSteven Bartlett19:58

      How do you go undercover?

   5. MBMike Baker19:59

      How do you go undercover? Um, use of disguise, uh, there's surveillance, counter-surveillance. Uh, there's, there's a lot to when I just say tradecraft, what that involves. Um, and then there's other training. There's paramilitary training and, and other things that you do as-

   6. SBSteven Bartlett20:19

      What about people skills?

   7. MBMike Baker20:20

      Mm-hmm.

   8. SBSteven Bartlett20:20

      What are the people skills they try and teach you?

   9. MBMike Baker20:22

      There's a lot of talking about, um, um, the psychology of the recruitment process, uh, which means you're diving into, you know, profiling individuals, the psychology of, of how people think, um, what that process does to an individual. I mean, and, and there's, um ... It's interesting. I mean, there's, there's, there's some folks who, who I think struggled with that more than others, and I think the idea of, of, of, of getting people to that point, of recruiting people, I think. Some folks, I think, found it, uh, n- difficult, maybe problematic, right? Because of, of the manipulation involved. Um ... You know, I, I, I didn't, I, again, not necessarily being a deep thinker, I didn't sit a lot of the time, you know, at home angst-ridden over, you know, whether I was being manipulative or not. I would just, "I have a task. I'm gonna do the task and, and, and then move on." But, um, the training can take quite a while. It can be, you know, a couple of years, um, before they feel like you're ready to, to go out.

9. 21:36 – 22:09

   Why Did Mike Leave The CIA?

   1. MBMike Baker21:36

   2. SBSteven Bartlett21:36

      So you eventually leave the CIA-

   3. MBMike Baker21:39

      Mm-hmm.

   4. SBSteven Bartlett21:40

      ... um, after a very, very long career there. Why did you leave?

   5. MBMike Baker21:46

      My daughter was young, and, um, uh, I was in the process of, uh, of getting a divorce, uh, which took a while. My ex-wife, great person, but we're not compatible by the end. I think I'd, my career was a little difficult. Um, and so I needed to do something that kept me closer to home.

10. 22:09 – 24:10

    Mike's Transition To Becoming A Spy For Companies

    1. MBMike Baker22:09

    2. SBSteven Bartlett22:09

       You started doing corporate espionage thereafter.

    3. MBMike Baker22:11

       (laughs)

    4. SBSteven Bartlett22:12

       (laughs)

    5. MBMike Baker22:12

       We call it, we call it strategic intelligence and investigations. (laughs)

    6. SBSteven Bartlett22:16

       Okay. So-

    7. MBMike Baker22:17

       Yeah.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett22:17

       ... for someone that doesn't know-

    9. MBMike Baker22:18

       Yep, yep.

    10. SBSteven Bartlett22:19

        ... what strategic intelligence and investigations/corporate esp- espionage is-

    11. MBMike Baker22:22

        (laughs) Yeah.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett22:22

        ... it's effectively being a spy for companies.

    13. MBMike Baker22:25

        It could be. There could be an element of that, yes. I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna deny that. Look, it's, it, there are corporations out there that are very aggressive in understanding what other companies are doing, right, in particular. Um, but what we got started in, um, was primarily a company will come to you and say, "We're making an investment in a country we've never operated in before." Pick a country. "Um, tell us everything we need to know. What, what are the problems? What are the risks? What are the threats? What are, you know, how do you assess that?" Uh, it could be, "We've had a fraud. We've had a, and, and, and now we've had theft of intellectual property. We need to know how bad it is." Um, it could be, "We're doing a joint venture, and we just need to know about who we're investing in," right? You, you never know. It could be that they're saying, "Look. We're, we're not having any success in ..." Maybe they're in the mining sector. "We're not having any success in Africa where we're trying to pick up these licenses, and yet these other companies are picking them up left and right. What are we doing wrong? What are they doing right? Who are they dealing with?" So now, we're getting closer to what you referred to as corporate espionage. Um, but you have to ... Because you're not working for a government, you know, the, the guardrails have now shrunk, right, in terms of what you can do. And so you have to know what is, uh, legally appropriate in each jurisdiction, and that changes, right? What you can do over here is different than what you could do in the UK or in France or in the US or wherever. So as long as you know what the parameters are, um, then you, you, you do that, right? To gather information that's gonna benefit the client.

    14. SBSteven Bartlett24:09

        Did you

11. 24:10 – 25:07

    Did Mike Ever Go Undercover?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett24:10

       have to go undercover in terms of-

    2. MBMike Baker24:11

       Mm-hmm.

    3. SBSteven Bartlett24:12

       ... in physical disguises?

    4. MBMike Baker24:13

       Mm. Yeah, yeah, on, on occasion, which was great. Yeah, I mean, if you, like, if you ... I, I love the acting part of it, right? 'Cause y- you'd be, you'd be ... I would get completely absorbed in it, right? And then, uh ... And I, I loved it, so I, I didn't have a problem. Sometimes people don't enjoy it or they don't ... It's, it's not ... I- if you, if you're not confident, if you don't have ... I- if you put on a disguise, whether it's a full overhead mask or whether it's just, you know, a disguise kit or whatever, uh, if you're not comfortable doing that, it'll show out, right? But if you're walking down the street in disguise, nobody on that street is thinking, "Oh, that guy's in disguise."

    5. SBSteven Bartlett24:50

       (laughs)

    6. MBMike Baker24:50

       It's not how people think, right?

    7. SBSteven Bartlett24:52

       Yeah.

    8. MBMike Baker24:52

       So unless you do something stupid, it's not gonna show out.

    9. SBSteven Bartlett24:55

       Did you ever wear a mask?

    10. MBMike Baker24:57

        Yeah. Yeah. That's a pri- ... Look, we had Hollywood makeup artists, uh, there that ... I mean, their, their disguise unit is legendary. Amazing what they can do. Yeah.

12. 25:07 – 27:00

    Is Mike's Job Dangerous?

    1. MBMike Baker25:07

    2. SBSteven Bartlett25:07

       Wh- why did you write Company Rules?

    3. MBMike Baker25:09

       I felt like, for me, over a short period of time, after I'd been involved in private sector for, for quite a while, it suddenly occurred to me that I was ... Th- the reason why we were able to keep a business breathing was because of some of these things that I absorbed from the company, right? Th- these rules. These ... And it's not like there's a book. They don't hand you a book and say, "Here's your company rules on day one," right? It's ... They're implied, they're, they're kind of embedded in the training process.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett25:39

       Of the CIA?

    5. MBMike Baker25:40

       Of the CIA, right. And so what I hadn't realized was I had ... Because I thought when I got out ... Look, people asked me when I said I was gonna leave ... I, I didn't retire. I was too young to retire. Uh, I was leaving, right? I left behind my pension and everything. I didn't have ... There was no financial reason to do what I did. W- and, um ... So they were, their question was always the same, which, "What the hell you gonna do?" Uh? I d- and I, I didn't have an answer, which probably should've been a, a red flag. But, um, I knew I was gonna have to go into kind of th- this world of gathering information, of security services, because I, I don't think I'd fit anywhere else. And so it took me a long time to realize that the reason why I was able to build a business ... And I couldn't have built a business without a, a very, very close friend of mine, uh, Nick Day, who came out of, of, uh, um, SBS and, and, uh, uh, MI5. Um, but we couldn't have done that if I hadn't absorbed some of that training and those rules, as I put them, from the agency. And so that's why I wanted to k- try to say, look, this is why I was able to do this, um, and keep a business breathing. Look, we haven't built a mega corporation, but we've built a nice life for a lot of people, right?

    6. SBSteven Bartlett26:59

       And what are the most sort of

13. 27:00 – 31:27

    What Are The Transferable Skills From The CIA To Business?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett27:00

       transferable rules that you are able to transfer from your time as a CI- ... Working in the CIA to the world of business that you were like, "Oh my God, this is exactly the same game here, the same technique"?

    2. MBMike Baker27:12

       I mean, first and foremost it was, um ... We'll start out with the, the first one that I put down, which (laughs) , which is define the mission, right? So the agency does that very well at the very outset. You spend a lot of time sitting in classrooms, listening to people explain how the agency works, why it works the way it does, where it fits within the government, what its purpose, what its e- what its mission is. And if you don't know that, right, then whether it's the CIA or whether it's your business, then you got a problem. You probably shouldn't really get started. And then you had to communicate that mission, and that's what they did very, very well. And so m- I took that away, and I was always very simple-minded in terms of a business. I always knew what I wanted to do, which was provide, again, the best quality product possible. That's how you get companies to stay with you for 20 years, right? They know you're gonna bust your ass and you're gonna overproduce and you're gonna do everything within, again, within the bounds of what you can do to give them the best information so that they can then win in whatever they're working or operating. And then we, we ... You know, I think if you, if you hire smart (laughs) people, um, and you explain the mission, you communicate that properly to them, then y- you know, your battle's half won, right? You've really ... You know, you, you, you've cracked that, that, uh, that nut. But then other parts of it are, um, you've gotta know your, uh, your risk appetite, and the agency spends a lotta time ... I guess that was my point from earlier is that a lotta people think the agency just goes out and does shit, right? "Let's just go blow that building up." Or, "Let's go pick up that high value target," or, "Let's go ..." Whatever it is we're gonna do. And they don't give any thought to it, because that's how the movies operate, right? And they just like, "Yeah, go do this shit." Um, there's a lotta time spent on risk versus gain. Um, and what's the potential blowback? What do those scenarios look like? So you have to know your risk appetite, and you have to communicate that, because everybody has to be on the same page as to what's allowable and what's not allowable. And that's true in, in, in, in private sector as well. We have to know you can't do this. You can't have a, a one-party conversation and record it in particular jurisdiction, or, you know, no, you can't, can't do the following because the information you're gathering is gonna end up in court. It's gotta be, you know, e- evidentially proper. So things have to be done in a, in a, in an appropriate way. So if you don't know all those things, then you're gonna get yourself, you know, crosswise somehow. Um, know your operating environment is a key thing. Uh, this is a, a constant surprise sometimes with, with some companies that we start working with where you realize that they don't necessarily understand the operating environment, the ... where they're working, what the market restrictions are, what their competitors are doing, right? What the, uh, the government is like in that particular country, what the instability issues are, whate- whatever it may be. You put all that together, you know your operating environment, you know your p- your risk, um, you defined your mission, and then at some point you gotta ...... uh, make decisions, right? And I think that's the, again, long-winded answer to your question, which is, eh, probably the most important thing I took away was, uh, what I refer to as getting off the X, and the X is the ambush site. So in, in the old days, you don't wanna l- end up on the ambush (laughs) site. That's a bad place to be. Um, and there are indicators, right? Whether you're talking about being in, in Mexico and rolling up on a cartel ambush or you're talking about being overseas, eh, in a place like, um, Iraq and you're in a convoy movement and you have to understand what the indicators are that something bad is, is going to happen if you don't make a decision. You're never gonna get all the information you want in business, right? But there are a lot of people who get paralyzed by that. They want all the data, you know, they wanna be able to think through. And that's, uh, you know, that's a good thing if that's your mindset, but something bad's gonna happen or you're gonna miss an opportunity. It's gonna pass you by. And so, one of the things that the agency taught was just make a damn decision, right? With the information that you've got, you're always gonna want more, but with the information that you've got, whether it's imperfect or not, understand the nature of that information, but then just make a damn decision, right?

    3. SBSteven Bartlett31:26

       How do they get

14. 31:27 – 35:14

    Why Is Decision-Making Crucial For Businesses?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett31:27

       you to do that? 'Cause there's a lot of people listening now that may be paralyzed in their own personal lives with a decision to leave a job, to leave a city, to leave a partner-

    2. MBMike Baker31:35

       Yeah.

    3. SBSteven Bartlett31:36

       ... you know?

    4. MBMike Baker31:36

       Yeah. That's a-

    5. SBSteven Bartlett31:36

       Or a big strategic de- decision.

    6. MBMike Baker31:38

       That's actually (laughs) really good. That's a good point. Yeah. Uh, I, I has... The agency teaches you through sort of repetition and, and, uh, and understanding that w- sorry, you waited too long. (laughs)

    7. SBSteven Bartlett31:54

       (laughs) .

    8. MBMike Baker31:54

       This is, this is not good. You, you, uh... But in a, in a better sense, I think what I've learned also is... Look, I tell my kids this all the time. Um, I tell my boys, uh, and my daughter this, is, is that... (sighs) There's never that many options on the decision tree, right? Not that life's completely binary, but we tend to overthink everything and we tend to overcomplicate things when we're faced with a decision, whether it's do I leave my, my job, uh, do I move, whatever it might be. Do I, you know, take a big strategic decision for my company? You tend to, you tend to overcomplicate, right? Life, I, I've always found (laughs) and maybe I, maybe I'm simple-minded, but one of the things that I, I took away from the agency is that life sometimes is just as simple as it seems, right? A- and again, well, I'm not a big conspiracy theorist, theorist, but... Um, so if you narrow it down and say, "Look, I'm not faced with an endless array of options here." You know, I may have on any big decision, I may have two or three options, right?

    9. SBSteven Bartlett33:00

       Mm-hmm.

    10. MBMike Baker33:01

        I'm gonna take this job. Okay. What does that mean? Well, it means I'm taking a chance. Take the... Okay. People talk about writing your positives and your negatives down. I, I don't know whether that's really a helpful thing or not, right? Because then you get lost in this list, and then you start imagining positives and negatives, and then it's like... So I always try to say, look, you gotta, you, you don't act just for the sake of acting, right? That's sometimes has its own negative consequences. But you, (laughs) you take the information you've got and then you just, you, you make a decision, right? Because if you... Again, if, it's the inertia of not acting. If you're, if you're in an unhappy relationship and you say, "You know, what do I do? Do I stay in this unhappy relationship 'cause maybe it's gonna get better?" Okay, what are the odds of that happening, right? It's been going on for 10 years, maybe you're not happy. Get the hell out, right? Do something different. If you're w- thinking about changing your job, if you're not happy in your job, which is a... It's a quality of life issue, right?

    11. SBSteven Bartlett33:55

        Mm-hmm.

    12. MBMike Baker33:55

        And, and I tell that to, to my folks all the time. If you think you would be happier somewhere else, you gotta go give it a try. If you think you'd be happier going out and starting a business, you should do that, right? But you gotta, you gotta jump in. And I know I'm, I'm... This is probably not as detailed as a, you know, psychiatrist would give, but I really do honestly believe that any, any major decision, you can distill it down to a very, very limited number of options, and that makes it easier. But if you just sit there staring at it, and people do, I would see this in operations all the time, people would just start imagining all the different scenarios. And I thought, "You know what? Honest to God, when the, the," (laughs) "when the whistle goes, right? And the ambush starts..." And usually you shouldn't start an ambush with a whistle. Um, you know, it's gonna go o- you know, one way, another way. You don't, don't, don't get bogged down in what could happen, what might happen. That was another thing I think I, I did well at the agency was I didn't ever sit around and stare at my belly button and think, "Well, I wonder what, what would've happened if I'd done this." No. You live with your mistakes, you live with your consequences, you live with the good things. Life is tough enough as it is, right? And, and we just, we just seem like we wanna make it tougher, and I don't ever understand

15. 35:14 – 37:56

    Will The Election Have Global Consequences?

    1. MBMike Baker35:14

       that.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett35:15

       It's an interesting time in the United States at the moment.

    3. MBMike Baker35:17

       (laughs) Is it?

    4. SBSteven Bartlett35:18

       To say the least.

    5. MBMike Baker35:19

       Why? Something happened?

    6. SBSteven Bartlett35:19

       Yeah. I mean, it's an interesting time in the world, to be honest, when you think about everything that's going on. Very, very unique times. But Trump has just been elected. He's now president-elect of the United States. Is that consequential? And if so, how would you believe it to be consequential?

    7. MBMike Baker35:37

       (laughs) Yeah. Uh, what do they say? Don't talk about politics, religion, or taxes. Um-

    8. SBSteven Bartlett35:43

       (laughs) .

    9. MBMike Baker35:44

       So, yes, I think it is consequential. Um, I think it was something that, um, very few people predicted the, the size of the, of the victory. Uh, look, he, um, he took all the swing states, right?

    10. SBSteven Bartlett36:00

        Mm-hmm.

    11. MBMike Baker36:01

        Um, he turned, uh, a surprising number of, of districts, uh, in favor of the Republicans in states that he didn't win.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett36:09

        Mm-hmm.

    13. MBMike Baker36:09

        Um, he outperformed in most categories, right? Uh, the demographics were rather shocking, right?

    14. SBSteven Bartlett36:19

        Mm-hmm.

    15. MBMike Baker36:19

        And people wanted to talk about how, "Well, it's gonna be the wo- it's gonna come down to the women voters." Well, it didn't, right? Fewer women voters voted for Kamala Harris than they did...... previously for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, right? And so, and he gained in, uh, in suburban voters, women voters. So, it's consequential in reshaping, at least in, (laughs) in the short to mid-term, people's understanding of the, uh, the electorate, I think.

    16. SBSteven Bartlett36:47

        Mm-hmm.

    17. MBMike Baker36:48

        Now, it's probably not consequential in the fact that I don't know that the Democrats... They don't seem to be doing it yet. I don't think they're gonna be particularly, um, uh, self-aware or introspective, right? They spent months, longer than that, referring to a large portion of the population as, uh, as moronic, as unintelligent, as sexist, as racist, as, um, as, as, as garbage, as fascists, as Nazis, right? They... You... How you do that and then not r- u- u- understand how you've just gotten kicked in the ass during the election, I'm not quite sure. But they seem incapable right now of any sort of reflection on what they need to do as a party, right, to maybe turn things around. So, I don't know consequentially whether it's gonna change the Democrat Party for the next election, um, but yeah, it'll be... And, and then you have to ask yourself, okay, the policies that, you know, that, that are important, um, from a national security perspective, from foreign policy, you know, what are we looking at differently here with Trump coming in?

16. 37:56 – 40:34

    Will Trump End The Wars?

    1. MBMike Baker37:56

    2. SBSteven Bartlett37:56

       Do, do you think he's gonna end some of these wars, like the war in the Ukraine and Russia? Do, do you think he's gonna end that? 'Cause, I mean, he's, he's pretty much said in the election cycle that he was gonna call Putin and end it on day one or s- something like that, so-

    3. MBMike Baker38:11

       (laughs)

    4. SBSteven Bartlett38:11

       ... so.

    5. MBMike Baker38:11

       Uh, yeah. I've, I... That's right. I forgot about that. He's gonna end it on day one and stop this war. Um, yeah. With... Set Trump over here to the side for a second.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett38:26

       Mm-hmm.

    7. MBMike Baker38:26

       And you have to look at the, what's happening on the ground, right, with Ukraine and Russia. 'Cause that will determine whether Trump's gonna be successful in any move that he makes. So, the problem that Ukraine is facing right now is, A, they're going into winter, and, uh, a massive percentage of their, uh, energy infrastructure has been destroyed by, by Russia. So, it's gonna be a very hard winter. Um, if you look at the resolve of the Ukrainian people... And, uh, uh, an institute in Kiev does these very interesting, um, surveys of Ukrainian citizens in, in, in... Throughout Ukraine, not just in Kiev, on a regular basis. And they ask questions like, you know, um, "Are you willing to fight indefinitely? Are you willing to stay in the game? Are you willing to give it your all, you know, for however long it takes?" And to that question, to that phrasing, uh, at the beginning of the year, 73% said yes, right, of the citizenry. Uh, last month it was, uh, 63%, right? It's... And so that's... A 10% drop is significant when we're talking (laughs) about the fate of your nation. Um, they, they're losing... Um, they're losing soldiers at a, an alarming rate. And they have a significant, uh, disadvantage to the Russians in terms of manpower. Russian manpower has, depending on who you talk to, maybe a three-to-one advantage in terms of available combatants. Um, the Russian military is gaining ground in the eastern part of Ukraine, in Donetsk in particular. It's a... The, the, the front, the frontline is about 600 miles long, 620 miles long. Um, in... Overall, right now, if you said, "Stop the war, stop the fighting," right now Russia controls 20%

17. 40:34 – 45:11

    Why Did Russia Start The War?

    1. MBMike Baker40:34

       of Ukraine.

    2. SBSteven Bartlett40:35

       Good time to-

    3. MBMike Baker40:36

       And-

    4. SBSteven Bartlett40:36

       ... get my little map here.

    5. MBMike Baker40:37

       Oh.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett40:38

       So you can show me what you're talking about there. (paper rustling) Why, why did Russia start this war?

    7. MBMike Baker40:50

       Well, I mean, if you, if you, if you wanted a, sort of a theoretical 30,000-foot answer-

    8. SBSteven Bartlett40:58

       Mm-hmm.

    9. MBMike Baker40:58

       ... um, Putin has repeatedly, uh, referred to the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest disaster of the 20th century. And he meant it, right? And so he's been trying, and he hasn't been shy about it, ever since he's, he's been in charge, which seems now like about 100 years, um, to recreate the glory, the strength of the former Soviet Union in some capacity. Not, not, you know, entirely. He's not, he's not crazy. But he is completely jonesing for some form of, of, uh, of a stronger Russia. Um, and to... In his mind, that means he's got to have a buffer zone between him and NATO, right? And so, this is, this is part of that. He also considers... If you, if you think about it, right here, he's basically saying, "This is mine," right? If you think that-

    10. SBSteven Bartlett41:55

        Which is the east of-

    11. MBMike Baker41:56

        This y- this is the eastern part of Ukraine. Right here is just Ukraine.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett42:01

        Mm-hmm.

    13. MBMike Baker42:01

        Um, frontline, this is not... I mean, you know, I'm simplifying this, but frontline stretches about 600 miles. Uh, he's also annexed, of course, Crimea, but that's, that's another issue here. And that's, that's the only port for their Black Sea fleet, which Ukrainian military has, frankly, destroyed almost, um, at this stage of the game. But they own... At this stage, they've got about 20% of, of, uh, Ukraine. If you were to say, you know, "Stop the shooting now," and...... then the, the, the problem is that at the outset of this, this war, Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government, uh, said, you know, the only answer here is total victory. We have to get all our territory back, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, uh, Zaporizhia, uh, we have to get it all back. And that is not... Again, it's not satisfying to say this, but it's not possible, right? So the problem that is being faced right now is when this war got started in the first year, year and a half, everybody was... You know, they're putting their flags, Ukrainian flags on their porch, they were putting a little flag on their, (laughs) their X site, their Twitter site, um, and (stutters) oh, here we go again. And there's no doubt, the Ukrainian military has been incredibly courageous and the population of Ukraine has put up with a great deal. Look, the months of September and October of this year, those two months, there's only been one night when Kyiv hasn't been under attack by Russian drones, right? The, the... Which is, if you think about it, it's insane, right?

    14. SBSteven Bartlett43:49

        Mm-hmm.

    15. MBMike Baker43:49

        And that's just Kyiv. They... All the other, their major cities have also been under attack by the Russians. They've destroyed much of their energy infrastructure. Um, now, a bright spot was for, for the Ukrainian military, was that they did a surprise offensive into Kursk, which is Russian territory. And in doing that, that was the first time there were foreign troops on Russian turf, right, since World War II. Um, and that really shocked the hell out of Putin and, and the Russian military. And they acted as if they really didn't know how to respond, didn't have the resources to respond. But this is a game of attrition, right? We're going into our th- you know, full third year, uh, early this coming year, um, and what's kept them in the fight is US support and EU or NATO support. The EU has done very good job. I mean, look, they've, they've picked up, uh, a great part of the, of the, the, uh, the effort. Without that support, this thing would never have lasted this long. Never. And so I think Putin, in part, has been very surprised. He miscalculated a lot of things, but he miscalculated the sort of support that Ukraine would receive from NATO, in particular. Um, and now-

18. 45:11 – 52:55

    Why Is It In NATO's Interest To Support Ukraine?

    1. MBMike Baker45:11

    2. SBSteven Bartlett45:11

       And why is NATO giving so much support? Why is this in their interests?

    3. MBMike Baker45:15

       Well, think about where Ukraine is.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett45:17

       Yeah.

    5. MBMike Baker45:17

       Think about where Poland is. Look, Russian missiles have flown errantly into, into Poland. (laughs) Um, their history tells them or informs them that if Putin takes this...

    6. SBSteven Bartlett45:31

       Ukraine.

    7. MBMike Baker45:32

       Yeah, takes Ukraine, then it's not as if he's gonna say, "Okay, I'm done. I'm finished," right? They believe... Now, whether they're right or not, this is... But this answers the question about why such strong NATO support, they believe that that's not his inclination, right? It's not in his, his character to say, "That's all I want. I'm good."

    8. SBSteven Bartlett45:51

       What do you think?

    9. MBMike Baker45:52

       I take him at his word when he says he wants to recreate the former Soviet Union in a fashion. Do I think this is enough of a buffer from NATO for him? I don't think so. Do I think he might, uh, consider moving a little bit further north? Look, he already has. This is Belarus. Belarus is a solid ally of, uh, of Putin. Um, but is there a chance that, you know, he says to himself, "Well, well, you know, maybe over here." He's already made verbal threats up here, so-

    10. SBSteven Bartlett46:20

        Is that Latvia?

    11. MBMike Baker46:21

        Latvia, yeah. And so I, I think I understand what their mindset is. It's like Israel, right? We, sometimes we... It's like, "Oh, my God, why is Israel acting the way they do?" Well, because they're surrounded by a ring of terrorist proxy that all are there to serve the purpose of the Iranian regime, which is to destroy Israel. So that's their mindset, right? We don't live there. We don't understand it. So to say, "Okay, well, that's ridiculous," for someone in the US to go, "Uh, it's ridiculous. That's Putin." Okay, you know, well, fuck off. You don't live here, right? You're not in Poland watching this if he takes over Ukraine. And so-

    12. SBSteven Bartlett46:56

        And World War II wasn't so long ago.

    13. MBMike Baker46:59

        Mm-hmm. Exactly.

    14. SBSteven Bartlett46:59

        And it wasn't until I studied World War II, which actually wasn't very long ago, it was about six months ago-

    15. MBMike Baker47:04

        Mm-hmm.

    16. SBSteven Bartlett47:05

        ... that I understood the sort of geopolitical backdrop as to why you need to defend Ukraine. Because when you see... You can probably explain it better than me-

    17. MBMike Baker47:13

        Mm-hmm.

    18. SBSteven Bartlett47:13

        ... but what Hitler did, and he just took a little bit. Was it like Czechoslovakia?

    19. MBMike Baker47:17

        Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    20. SBSteven Bartlett47:17

        Just a little bit. And then-

    21. MBMike Baker47:18

        Just take this piece. That's all we want.

    22. SBSteven Bartlett47:19

        And a little bit more.

    23. MBMike Baker47:20

        Yeah, yeah.

    24. SBSteven Bartlett47:20

        And then he took a little bit more and then a little bit more. And by, by the end of it, he was trying to take the UK, he was trying to take Russia, he was trying to take the lot.

    25. MBMike Baker47:26

        Over here in the States, right, you had this isolationist feeling. So World War II is happening, um, and they don't want any of it, right? They went through World War I, they sent a lot of their boys over, and they're like, "No, screw it." You know, "Look, we got this big ocean here, you know, we don't have to worry about it." And, yeah, that's, that would... that's a problem. And, but you see that now. There's some of this, this isolationist attitude, which is, why do we even care? And that's, uh... Okay, fine. That's a great question to ask. People should ask questions like that. But, um, (laughs) I'm telling you, having, having worked against Russia for, for a long period of time, uh, it's a mistake not to take Putin at his word, right? And, and we tend to always mirror our values. It's like when we were talking about the cab driver. How do you get him in a conversation? Well, you start to mirror your values, right?

    26. SBSteven Bartlett48:14

        Mm-hmm.

    27. MBMike Baker48:14

        And we do that as a nation sometimes in the US where we imagine that people are gonna react the same way or think the same way about freedom or democracy or what... And, and it's not how the world works. So, uh, uh, just going back here to, to the incursion into, um...... into Russia, that the Ukrainian military did. So they- they've ho- they're holding territory up there. Maybe it depends on who you talk to, maybe, um, 500 square miles, uh, it- it varies. But they've stretched their resources relatively thin and that's a problem because it all goes back to war as long as we've known war, which is supply lines, right? If you, if you can't maintain your supply lines, you- you've, you know, lost the plot. And so what we're seeing right now is Putin has amassed about 40,000 Russian troops and about 10,000 North Korean troops and that's another, that's another story. So North, (laughs) North Korea, because Kim Jong Un of North Korea is best buddies now with Putin, he has sent upwards of 12,000 troops to Russia and they are now on the front lines essentially, they're already in combat, but they're an important part of- of- of Putin's effort and I th- I think what he's trying to do... Trump has won, takes us back to our original point of, okay, what's Trump gonna do and what's this gonna look like after the, uh, inauguration? Trump's won. I think there's a calculation here. Putin could be saying, "I've gotta do everything now, I've gotta throw everything I can to gain that Russian territory back before sitting down at a negotiating table and coming up with a deal, because I don't wanna sit at a negotiating table if Zelensky and NATO are saying, 'Well, we have part of your Russian territory.'" You want it back? Well, we- we're gonna need, we're gonna need this back. We're gonna need Eastern Ukraine back or we're gonna need Crimea back. I don't think he's ever giving back Crimea, right? But it's likely, I think, if you have to make these decisions and without real insight into his mindset, um, it's- it's true, it's all speculation. But I- I wouldn't be surprised if what he's calculated right now is I gotta throw all these troops to regain this Russian territory the Ukrainians surprised us by taking ahead of sitting down and doing a negotiated settlement, which again, is gonna be very unsatisfying to all those people who put Ukrainian flags on their porch and, "Ah, they're gonna get all their territory back." No, they're not. They don't have the ability to do that. And- and I hope that what we don't see is if Trump w- w- when one Trump comes into office, um, I think he and the people that he will ra- have around him working on this issue will be sufficiently convinced that they have to maintain a level of support that allows Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table from at least a position of relative strength, right? Um, otherwise, they're just sitting and they're asking, you know, for whatever they can get in this deal and that's not, that's never gonna sell. Zelensky's gotta sell this to- to the Ukrainian population. This is an incredible moment in time, right? This is- this is an invading, (laughs) this is- this is an invading force from Russia into another country, an independent country, um, and there's- there's so much complexity here. It's hard to explain and, you know, without saying, okay, we're gonna take the next five or six days to talk about it, but it- it's an incredible moment in time. And so yes, it matters a great deal about w- you know, is this consequential? It's consequential if worst case scenario, um, the next administration says, "That's it. We're cutting off all assistance and all aid." Well, the rest of NATO will definitely stay in the game, right? Because they view it differently 'cause they're right here.

    28. SBSteven Bartlett52:04

        (laughs)

    29. MBMike Baker52:04

        But US support is critical and it's critical to get a settlement and if what you want is to end war, to stop the- the killing, um, and if you're pragmatic, you have to, uh, you have to assume this is gonna be a settlement that means that Russia's gonna keep maybe not all of this, maybe they'll keep this much and this will be maybe a demilitarized zone, right? Uh, patrolled by UN peacekeepers or whatever to act as a buffer. But then you have other issues. Is Putin going to say, "No, part of this deal has got to be that Ukraine never joins NATO"? And that's, I'm sure that's gonna be a part of his deal.

    30. SBSteven Bartlett52:44

        Mm-hmm.
19. 52:55 – 57:56

    How Does The Ukraine War End?

    1. MBMike Baker52:55

       uh...

    2. SBSteven Bartlett52:55

       How do you think it ends if you had to be- if you had to bet?

    3. MBMike Baker52:59

       I think, uh, look, part of the reason why, um, part of the reason why the- the North Korean troops have ended up in- in- in Russia, which is again, is an astounding thing, um, is because Putin desperately doesn't want to do another conscription. He knows that's vastly unpopular with his- with his folks.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett53:20

       Which is when you ask your...

    5. MBMike Baker53:22

       You basically just-

    6. SBSteven Bartlett53:22

       ... everyday people...

    7. MBMike Baker53:23

       ... round up more people, right? "I'm- I'm gonna need, I'm gonna need another 150,000 soldiers." 'Cause he runs what's essentially called a meat grinder operation. He just throws people in the front, right? As cannon fodder. I mean, the- the- the Russian casualty rate has been ridiculous, right? Compared to, um, the- the Ukrainians, but they've been willing to sacrifice, um, all those people. So I think the- the- the idea being, look, Kim Jong Un, he's making money off of this deal, sending troops up there. He's getting the troops that survive anyway will get combat experience and he doesn't have a military with any combat experience right now, and he's also getting weapons technology transfer from Russia. So he's getting part of a deal here. What's Putin getting? I think Putin's just getting bodies he can throw out there ahead of the next wave, which will be Russian troops, right? So I think, I think those 10,000 North Koreans, uh, soldiers are fucked.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett54:18

       There's been a- a rising sentiment in the United States that we should stop sending money to Ukraine and why are we bothering and this isn't our problem, et cetera, et cetera.

    9. MBMike Baker54:27

       Mm-hmm.

    10. SBSteven Bartlett54:28

        What do you say to those people? Because that sentiment is rising and it's rising...... from my opinion, it's rising on the right side of politics.

    11. MBMike Baker54:35

        Mm-hmm.

    12. SBSteven Bartlett54:35

        I hear it more and more on some of the big podcasts. I hear it more and more on, um, X and Twitter.

    13. MBMike Baker54:40

        Mm-hmm.

    14. SBSteven Bartlett54:40

        And again, it's only because I, I researched what happened in Nazi Germany in World War II that I suddenly go, okay, actually, uh, this is much more complicated than you think. And you can embolden someone if you don't resist their, them invading a local country.

    15. MBMike Baker54:55

        Yeah.

    16. SBSteven Bartlett54:56

        And why stop at one?

    17. MBMike Baker54:57

        Right. Well, look, I mean, this... And, and the thing is, I mean, (laughs) the world, the world is shrinking, right? The world is, and, and has been and continues to shrink. Nothing happens in a bubble. So what's happening right here is being watched by, uh, you know, Xi Jinping in China, right, in terms of Taiwan. I mean, he's sitting there saying, "Okay, here's Taiwan." This is Strait of Taiwan. There's no distance whatsoever. He's just conducted... Xi Jinping and, and the Chinese regime has just conducted the largest military exercise around Taiwan ever, basically blocking it off, blocking the ports and, uh, you know, patrolling the airs, airway, uh, airways. So the idea being, he just wanted to show that he could do that, right? And so he's watching what's happening over here in terms of the US response and NATO response, and he's, he's saying, "Okay, a- at what point does it make sense for me to do this?" Because at the end of the day, Xi Jinping is tied to his desired legacy, which is the reunification. And, and in his mind, this belongs right here. And so...

    18. SBSteven Bartlett55:57

        So let's...

    19. MBMike Baker55:58

        Mm-hmm.

    20. SBSteven Bartlett55:58

        We'll move on to China then.

    21. MBMike Baker55:58

        Yeah, yeah.

    22. SBSteven Bartlett55:59

        Um, question was, how do you think it ends, if you're a betting man? How do you think the Ukrainian war ends?

    23. MBMike Baker56:04

        I think in this coming year. I think in part... I know I've talked a lot about what the Ukrainians are suffering from, but there's, there are reasons why Putin is gonna need to, uh, figure this out as well. I think part of it is his economy is, is, is suffering. Um, and so I think it finishes with a negotiated settlement at some point during 2025. And I think that means, uh, the lines are going to look... Again, I keep using the word unsatisfactory, but that's the way it's gonna feel to a lot of people. Uh, the lines are gonna look a lot like they did before the invasion. Uh, maybe, uh, some additional territory being held by the Russians. And then I do think that there will be some agreement to have a buffer zone, uh, that will be essentially under the auspices of UN peacekeeping troops somehow. Um, you know, a no-fly zone, whatever you wanna call it as well. I think that's how it's gonna end up. I think Kursk, that region in, in, in, uh, in Russia goes back to the Russians. I think the problem's gonna be, I think, in the short order, um, I think they're gonna wanna move quickly, right, before we get into the teeth of winter. Um, I think that's gonna be a mess. So that's gonna be a major... When they start that offensive, and we're talking again potentially 50,000 troops thrown at, uh, a relatively thin line, um, I think that territory goes back to Russia, and-

    24. SBSteven Bartlett57:31

        In the next month?

    25. MBMike Baker57:34

        I would, I would suspect, yeah. I mean, basically you don't, you don't put troops there, you know, with all those resources without intending to, to use them. Um, and I think the longer those North Korean troops sit there, the more trouble they will have in terms of commanding control. So they're gonna wanna get them into the, uh, into the, into the canon as quickly as possible.

    26. SBSteven Bartlett57:55

        So you mentioned

20. 57:56 – 1:00:50

    What Is China's 2049 Plan?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett57:56

       China. China feel like Taiwan is theirs. Taiwan is this little island off the coast of China.

    2. MBMike Baker58:00

       Mm-hmm.

    3. SBSteven Bartlett58:02

       I, I hear about this, um, this plan that they say China has, which is the 2049 Plan. What is China's 2049 Plan?

    4. MBMike Baker58:13

       Well, part of that was based around a timeline, um, for, uh, however you wanna refer to it. The reunification, the absorption of Taiwan, the taking over of Taiwan. Nobody really knows what that will look like because there's a, a concern, um, you know, is it going to be a completely kinetic... Uh, is it gonna be a, a military operation? Uh, is it gonna be more of a soft takeover? Uh, sort of like a, you know, there's... It's a good example right here, Hong Kong. Um, you remember there used to be democracy in Hong Kong, and now there's not. Um, and it... That happened over a period of time, but they basically just squashed all remnants of democracy, particularly during the pandemic. So what's it gonna look like when they do take over Taiwan? That's the, that's the big question. But the timeline has shrunk. So there now, there's some feeling that the movement on Taiwan will be during the course of Xi Jinping's tenure, right? So what are you looking at? Well, that depends on his grip on power, which seems very solid. Um, it seems like it depends on his health, which, you know, again, I'd be speculating, but... So I don't see him riding off into the sunset willingly without finishing that project that, that in his mind is so important. Um, he's consolidated power in, in China like nobody since Deng Xiaoping or, or Mao Zedong. You know, so I think, um, I think he's serious. Again, take, take certain leaders at their word. Some, you know, some bluster a lot. Some, some make very big pronouncements. Donald Trump would be one of them who tends to just speak off the cuff and throw things out. I think the danger sometimes is, is the, the Democrats, for example, take him at his word, right? For everything he says, right? They take everything he says literally. Um, but there are other leaders, uh, Putin, Xi Jinping, I think you need to pay real close attention to exactly what they're saying. So I think when he talks about the, uh, you know, absorbing Taiwan and, and making it part of the motherland again, I, h- he's not kidding around.

    5. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:16

       Why does he want Taiwan? It looks like such an insignificant part of that part of the map. It's so small in comparison to-

    6. MBMike Baker1:00:22

       (laughs) Right. I know, it does-

    7. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:23

       ... China.

    8. MBMike Baker1:00:23

       It's a good point. When you look at the map, you go, "Eh, do you really need to bother?"

    9. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:26

       Yeah.

    10. MBMike Baker1:00:27

        Um, you know what? It's, uh, part of it is, is, is the history, right? Uh...You know, ever since the, the, you know, the Chiang Kai-shek and, you know, the separatists and then, then the m- escaping to Taiwan and raising it as a separate nation, it's just, it, it's, it, it's hard to explain but it's a very emotive subject, right?

    11. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:49

        Wh- why

21. 1:00:50 – 1:05:31

    Why Does The US Care About Taiwan?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett1:00:50

       does the US care so much about Taiwan?

    2. MBMike Baker1:00:52

       Oh, um, that's a better question too. Um, okay. Part of that is, part of that is, uh, I don't want to say emotional, but it's the idea of, look, they're democratic institutions, um, it's an ally, you know, how could we possibly stand by and watch a communist regime, you know, step on it and, and, and destroy it? Part of it is, um, practical. It's like, you know, it's, it's an important chip manufacturing center. (laughs)

    3. SBSteven Bartlett1:01:22

       Yeah.

    4. MBMike Baker1:01:23

       So, you know, there's a couple of elements to it. Um, honestly, look, if, if, if all the chip manufacturing on Taiwan was re-shored over to California somewhere, um, would we care quite as much? Well, we would still care on that sort of emotional values-based, uh, side, but we could probably, we could probably overlook it in the long run. Now, are we gonna send boots on the ground over to defend Taiwan if it's, if there's a military action? Um, you know, going back to are you a betting person, I would bet no, no matter who's in office.

    5. SBSteven Bartlett1:02:00

       But they will say they're going to defend Taiwan, which everyone-

    6. MBMike Baker1:02:04

       Yeah.

    7. SBSteven Bartlett1:02:04

       All of the, like, the US presidents are always asked, "Would you defend Taiwan if Russia invaded?" And you probably know some of the quotes better than I do, but they've all said that they would.

    8. MBMike Baker1:02:12

       Yeah. Yeah, they only slip up at one point was, uh, uh, Biden where he, uh, I don't think he really meant to say what he said, which was, you know, sort of ambiguous towards the, the defense of Taiwan, but then he corrected it. Um, so do I honestly think that we would send, uh, troops over? No. No, I don't. Um, do I think that we would do what we're doing with Ukraine? Sure, yeah. Uh, we provide resources, but this is a much different, uh, situation, right? Um, and so I think while I get, uh, the concept, uh, I just don't know that there's be follow through because th- that is a very tough sell to explain why we're sending troops over to face down the Chinese military, which is about a stone's throw away from Taiwan. And look, this is gonna be an interesting situation, right, because the folks over here, the, the folks in China, they don't view the folks in Taiwan as Taiwanese, they view them as Chinese, right? So are you gonna have, you know, Chinese military shooting Chinese? I don't know. Maybe it's gonna be a softer takeover, maybe there's gonna, there's more influences or massive disinformation campaigns that go on on Taiwan courtesy of the Chinese regime. There's all sorts of efforts there to, to s- undermine, uh, Taiwanese leadership, but it, this is, uh, again, the, the point being is this is a crisis that look, this is already, this is a mess and has been and it's underway and it's-

    9. SBSteven Bartlett1:03:49

       The Ukraine situation.

    10. MBMike Baker1:03:51

        Yeah, it's, and Ukraine situation, but over here, this is looming, right, as a major issue and, and if you think about it, there are other activities. This is, is what's referred to as the South China Sea, right?

    11. SBSteven Bartlett1:03:59

        Which is below Taiwan.

    12. MBMike Baker1:04:00

        It is, yes, and it's, it's, um, eh, this is the Philippines here, uh, Vietnam over here. China has always viewed this as their territory, right? This, they, this is their backyard. Well, ever since World War II, the US has essentially patrolled and, and maintained security in the South China Sea, right? In the interests of international free trade and, you know, freedom of movement. Um, there are increasing numbers of encounters between the, the Chinese navy and the Philippines, uh, and Vietnamese over, um, this, this sea because again, they view this as theirs. They're constantly in here pushing, they're building, uh, uh, artificial islands there for ports. Um, there's a, there's a major flashpoint here, right, for, for potential conflict and China... I've talked to a number of experts that I really value and their take is, and I think it's not incorrect, is that China is basically on a war footing with the West already, right? We just don't see it or we don't feel it or we don't want to acknowledge it, and I don't mean like they're gonna launch missiles, but in their minds, they're at war with the US already and they're, they're acting in a sense as if that's the case and we act as if, well, they're just a, an economic competitor, but it would be nice if we could all get along. Um, so I think we may be misreading the, the tea leaves.

22. 1:05:31 – 1:12:34

    Who Is The Real Enemy Of The West?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett1:05:31

       Who's the, the real enemy of the West in your opinion? Who, who would you... If you were the president of the United States, who would you be most concerned about?

    2. MBMike Baker1:05:40

       (sighs) Well, this is, uh, this is our biggest, this is our biggest concern, right? China. China is the, is I think is the top line concern because of their, their abilities, their resources, um, and, you know, again, the sort of the increasing aggressiveness in this region, um, their desire to, uh, reshape the, the global structure, right? They don't want the West to be in charge. They, you know, they view this as, you know, how do we realign this so that we get what, you know, the bricks and, and, uh, uh, a different realignment of, of world order so that the US and its allies are, are not at the top of the food chain. So in a sense, that doesn't mean that I think that we're gonna be in a, in a, in a shooting match with China anytime soon. I don't actually believe that's going to be the case, but that's where we have to focus a lot of our concerns when you talk about identifying and resolving and, you know, prioritizing threats. Um, in the short term, um, right here-... is Iran and... Look, the Iranian regime has been engaged in, uh, assassination plots to try to kill (laughs) , uh, now the President-elect, uh, as well as several other, uh, US officials whom they, uh, believe were responsible for the targeting back in 2020 of Qasem Soleimani, who ran the Quds Force and was a very close, uh, ally of the Supreme Leader, uh, Khamenei in Iran.

    3. SBSteven Bartlett1:07:13

       You think Iran have tried to kill Trump?

    4. MBMike Baker1:07:15

       Oh, they have definitely, yeah, there's no doubt that, that they've been engaged in... They have a hit list, and they've actually been engaged in trying to get, uh, plots underway, um, to, uh, you know, to, uh, target not just him but Mike Pompeo, uh, Mark Milley, former head of the, or, uh, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Esper, former Secretary of Defense Brian Hook, uh, and others. So, but I guess, you know, from a, uh, you know, setting that aside, setting aside the bizarreness of this state with a hit list of US officials, right? And th- that's just saying that out loud should make people think, "Well, that is bizarre." But what they've done in terms of, uh, establishing and building over the years this, this network of, of proxies, the Houthis, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Hamas, um, Iran has stated numerous times, they've been very clear about it, their desire, their objective is to wipe Israel from the face of the, the Earth. So, they've set up their proxies with the same objective, and the idea being, "Okay, we'll let the proxies do the dirty work. We're not gonna take accountability. We're not gonna be in the direct line of fire." Now, that's happened a couple of times, right? There's been this, this direct, you know, back and forth between Iran and Israel. Um, so this is a, this is a very serious problem that will not be s- resolved as long as the Iranian regime and the, uh, Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC maintain their belief system that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the Earth. As long as they believe that, they will continue to be the primary cause of instability, um, in, uh, the Middle East. Uh, so we talk about getting ceasefires in Gaza, talk about ceasefire with Hezbollah in, in Lebanon, not that there's much left of the Hezbollah leadership. But that's just putting lipstick on a pig, right? Because you're not solving the problem. And, you know, I don't know that you change the belief structure of the Iranian regime and the IRGC. So, in that case, what do you hope for? Well, you hope for internally that there will be, uh, at some point the population will just say, "We've had enough," right? I mean, there have been... How many cases do we need where, you know, women go out on the streets to protest, right, the new morality laws and they disappear, right? They're just, they're... It, it's brutal, yet you don't hear any of that. You don't hear people, you know, you don't hear activists in the States going on college campuses and protesting the treatment of, of women in, in Iran. No. It's always, you know, "Oh, G- my God, look what Israel's doing."

    5. SBSteven Bartlett1:09:47

       Those protests in Iran, do the United States fuel those protests? Do they cause disinformation in that country to try and destabilize it, to try and get a coup so that they can throw out the leadership? Is that how the world works?

    6. MBMike Baker1:09:59

       Um, you know what? It, I'm gonna, what I'm gonna say, uh, I think a lot of people who, uh, would look at my background and go, "Well, of course that son of a bitch is gonna say that." (laughs) This is, what I would say is that what happens, um, is... Okay, let me put it this way. Y- in years past, yeah, that's what would've happened. We would've tried to say, "Okay, how do we get that, that uprising? How do we get that?" But now it's more, "How do we get information into those people?" And then if there is a protest that develops, "How do we support it? What do you do to support that?" Uh, that, I would argue, has, you know, not worked. Um, the Green Movement and, and a, few other un- you know, unsuccessful attempts by people to kind of get out on the streets and protest have been brutally put down. And, and the US and the UN and others-

    7. SBSteven Bartlett1:10:52

       Mm-hmm.

    8. MBMike Baker1:10:52

       ... for the most part, you know, they're gonna protest and write a nasty memo, but none of it helps, right?

    9. SBSteven Bartlett1:10:59

       How do you get information to the people in a country like that?

    10. MBMike Baker1:11:03

        You know, they have, they have access to some degree. Most of it's locked down, I guess, but, but they have access to some degree. So you try to, you try to push information out. Look, Voice of America is, is probably the best example over the years. VOA was for years, its whole purpose was, "How do we get information about what happens in the world, um, into Russia, into the Soviet Union?" And nowadays, you know, you could argue you've got more possibilities 'cause of technology. Um, that's outside my scope. I mean, we start talking about how do you, you know... Uh, aside from dropping leaflets, um-

    11. SBSteven Bartlett1:11:38

        Mm-hmm.

    12. MBMike Baker1:11:39

        ... (laughs) which, which bizarrely enough in South Korea and North Korea they still do. South Korea drops leaflets using balloons over North Korean territory to convince people that Kim Jong Un is bad and that life could be better. Um, but yeah, I, the, the worst p- part is with Iran is you just... Look, these people are under the thumb of the mullahs in the IRGC, and they are brutal, right? It's like, it's like Hamas. Hamas has ruled Gaza with an iron fist, and they've been brutal against anyone that they disagree with, LGBTQ activists, women, name 'em. And, and yet, you know, you never see protests outside the country about how Hamas, you know, how they beat, um, you know, uh, a, a gay activist. It doesn't happen, right? You c- campus protests are all about Israel. Israel surrounded by a ring of, of proxies built by Iran that wants to destroy them. So yes, they're going to think differently than we do.

23. 1:12:34 – 1:15:08

    What Happened At The Start Of The Israel Conflict?

    1. MBMike Baker1:12:34

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:12:34

       What happened in Israel on that day where, I mean, people rushed into the co- their country and thousands of people died?

    3. MBMike Baker1:12:42

       Mm... Yeah, eh-

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:12:43

       Can you tell us about that?

    5. MBMike Baker1:12:43

       Yeah. Their estimate was 1,200, and then, uh, 250 were dragged off into, uh, into Gaza.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:12:49

       I just don't know how that, that's possible when that, that state is so unbelievably paranoid about invasions and attacks and they have the, the Iron Dome.

    7. MBMike Baker1:12:58

       Mm-hmm.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett1:12:59

       How does that happen? How did... And h-

    9. MBMike Baker1:13:01

       Yeah. It, that was a, um, it was a long-term, uh, project that was very well-orchestrated by Hamas, uh, with Iran. The IRGC was fully aware of what was going on. The IRGC provided some of the training to some of the Hamas fighters that eventually ended up in, inside southern Israel. Um, so, probably the best way to put it would be, they lulled the Israeli government to sleep and the, the military to sleep. They made them believe that they really weren't interested in violence anymore, and what that did, w- an- and that what they really wanted was, "Okay, we just wanna, like, try to build up our economy, right, and, and try to make a better life." Well, that was horse shit on Hamas's part. That's what the Palestinians would like, but that was horse shit on Hamas's part. Um, what they were doing was lulling them to sleep in that then they kind of took their eye off the ball. The Israeli government, in particular, started looking more inward. You know, you had a lot of internal political battles going on, um, and they were doing that because they viewed that they didn't have the same existential threat on their doorstep that they had been dealing with, right? They, they sort of took the bait, and it was an intelligence failure. There's no doubt about it, in part because the, uh, the people running that operation dumbed down their communications, right? They deliberately stopped using communications that they felt could be compromised or had been compromised, mm, and we've s- we've seen that over the years. Um, Al-Qaeda's a good example. Once Al-Qaeda understood, uh, the extent to which we could intercept their communications, you know, they went back to the old days, right, handing handwritten notes, right? "This is my cousin. I want you to take it to that person over there who's his cousin. Only give him that note," right, "and don't talk to anybody." Very hard to intercept, right? Very... and so you, you... Now, it's very hard to conduct your operations. It takes a lot more time, um, but that's the extent to which they went to try to get this thing done, and, uh, yeah, unfortunately, they were very successful.

24. 1:15:08 – 1:17:07

    Is US Support Waning For Israel?

    1. MBMike Baker1:15:08

    2. SBSteven Bartlett1:15:08

       How are you thinking about the world's perception, specifically the United States' perception, of what's going on in Israel and Palestine? Eh, you know, we talked about how support seems to be waning for providing support to Ukraine.

    3. MBMike Baker1:15:18

       Mm-hmm.

    4. SBSteven Bartlett1:15:19

       Is support waning, do you believe, for Israel and the plight of Israel? Because there's been-

    5. MBMike Baker1:15:23

       Mm.

    6. SBSteven Bartlett1:15:23

       ... a lot of information around the amount of innocent people that have been killed in Palestine.

    7. MBMike Baker1:15:28

       Yeah. I would be more concerned about, um, Ukrainian support than I would be losing, um, the level of, uh, Israeli support.

    8. SBSteven Bartlett1:15:37

       Why?

    9. MBMike Baker1:15:38

       Because I think, um, it's a little bit of a different dynamic, right? There's, Israel has always kind of had this, this interesting s- place within US psyche, I guess, and, um, and it's also, uh, look, there's a massive Jewish American community, right? I mean, there's no doubt about that. So, there's, there's a level of support there that, that Ukraine doesn't have, um, and, and also just the length of support. Look, we've been, we've been close allies of Israel for generations, right, ever since it all, it started. Uh, you can't say the same thing about Ukraine. So I guess I'm hopeful that moving into the next administration... And I know people say, "Oh, my God, you know, you sounds like you're a warmonger." Well, no. Again, I go back to with Ukraine, if you want peace, if that's what you want, if you don't want the conflict, then my (laughs) argument is they've gotta be able to sit down at a negotiating table. If Putin feels like he's winning, right, if he feels like the US is backing off, he's not gonna negotiate. He's just gonna move forward. He doesn't, he doesn't give a shit about his soldiers. He just keeps throwing 'em into the front lines, right? So, if you want peace here, then you need to continue support sufficiently to get them to the table. And I do think we're, w- we're, we're, we're close because, again, I don't... You know, Russia, yes, they're making headway here, but a long-term, you know, meaning another two or three years, I don't think, I don't think Putin can sustain that with the Russian population. So-

    10. SBSteven Bartlett1:17:06

        How does Israel-Palestine's

25. 1:17:07 – 1:21:56

    How Does The Israel War End?

    1. SBSteven Bartlett1:17:08

       war end?

    2. MBMike Baker1:17:10

       Unfortunately, I, I... Again, being a cynic, um, I think it ends the way a lot of these have ended, which means we're just putting a Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound, and they'll come up with a ceasefire. Um, I think Hamas, they'll figure out a way to bring in the Palestinian authority to govern, uh, Hamas or, uh, sorry, Gaza. Um, I think, um, I think sort of the linchpin there is if they can get a ceasefire with, uh, with Gaza, with Hamas, that will make it infinitely easier for the Houthis to say, "Okay, we'll back off. We're not gonna keep screwing up the Red Sea, firing missiles at international trade and US and allied naval ships." And I think that it also allows for Hezbollah. Look, I think the Israelis look at Hezbollah leadership now. I think we've pretty much taken everybody out, um, and there's more of a structure in, in Lebanon. I think it's, it's always been problematic, but I think the Lebanese government could, um, you know, could, uh, deal with the problem if there is a, an, an official ceasefire with Hezbollah. So I think it all comes down to, um... A- and I guess what I mean by the Band-Aid on a sucking chest wound is that's all well and good. We'll stop the conflicts, right? I think those will stop relatively soon. Um, I don't think Iran is interested in getting into a bigger shooting match with Israel because I, I think they understand there's no way they do that without the US entering. The US has already got, you know, carriers forward deployed out here, a big show of force, right? We moved B-52 Fortresses out there, and nuclear capable. I mean, not that they would drop nukes, but it's a show of force that I think Iran understands, and the mullahs, the mullahs, the IRGC in particular, which has its fingers in every part of the Iranian economy and has made itself wealthy, much like the Hamas leadership made themselves wealthy by stealing billions, that leadership in Iran is very similar to Putin in a sense, and very similar over here (laughs) to Xi Jinping. The one thing they want more than anything else is to retain control.So, the Iranian regime is gonna look at this and go, "Can we really afford to get into a shooting match with the US and Israel?" And the answer is no. They can't win that. So, I think they're not inclined to, to do this. So, we're gonna get these ceasefires, and then we're just kicking the can down the road.

    3. SBSteven Bartlett1:19:35

       But if they get nuclear weapons-

    4. MBMike Baker1:19:36

       Mm-hmm.

    5. SBSteven Bartlett1:19:36

       ... then they can hold their weight.

    6. MBMike Baker1:19:38

       Absolutely. Absolutely, yeah. And that will, that will completely change the, the calculus in terms of, how do we deal with them and the negotia- So, and again, this is gonna make me sound like a warmonger-

    7. SBSteven Bartlett1:19:48

       (laughs)

    8. MBMike Baker1:19:48

       ... but that last, um, that last, um, uh, retaliatory strike by Israel into Iran, they focused on missile production facilities and, uh, air defense systems. Now, that's smart in that destroying a, a significant portion of their missile production capabilities impacts their ability to both attack directly Israel, but also then to provide those missiles to their proxies. The air defense, you could argue, is setting the table, right? If they decide that that breakout window for the Iranian regime to get a nuke is tightening, uh, to a point where it's not really acceptable, and if you, if you basically destroy their air defense systems and they're somewhat naked in that regard, then you're talking about, you know, dropping and trying to disrupt their, their weapons capability. Now most of that is significantly underground.

    9. SBSteven Bartlett1:20:43

       How do we know they don't have a nuclear weapon?

    10. MBMike Baker1:20:45

        I don't think they coulda kept their yaps shut. They would have told us. Because for what you're saying, which is, okay, now what, right? Um, I don't think that, I don't think they could've m- kept that secret. Plus, also, we rely on our liaison partners, so the Israeli intelligence, Jordanian intelligence, Saudi intelligence. We rely on a, sort of a input from a lot of the players. But the, the Saudis, the Jordanians, and others, would they be upset if the Iranian regime were to change? No. They would, they would li- What do they want? They want, they want stability, right? Because that leads to economic prosperity. That's better for their populations, keeps their folks happy. Um, and so, you know, uh, uh, you know, are they gonna come right out and say it? No. But there's a lot of reasons. So, I think the, the, the problem with these ceasefires is not... Again, it's, it's good. You, you wanna end conflict. Um, you don't want people suffering. It, it, it would be fantastic if the Palestinians had a much better opportunity for a, a great life. But you don't get there as long as the Iranian regime and the, and the IRGC are saying, "We wanna destroy Israel, so we're gonna keep pushing at it." Um, that's not really a recipe for long-term stability. So, that's why I say they're kinda key to this whole problem.

26. 1:21:56 – 1:23:31

    Why Is The US Concerned About Iran Getting Nuclear Weapons?

    1. MBMike Baker1:21:56

Episode duration: 2:15:43