Mike Baker: How CIA tradecraft reads China, Iran, Russia

Baker’s CIA work revolved around identifying who holds critical information, understanding their motivations and weaknesses, building trust, and then ‘closing the deal’ by persuading them to betray their own side. In business, the “client” is a company instead of a government, but the process is the same: define what information or outcome is needed, map where it resides, who controls access, and carefully develop relationships that surface usable intelligence or opportunities. Founders and salespeople can consciously adopt this cycle—spotting, developing, recruiting, and maintaining relationships—rather than treating sales as improvised charm.

Whether with cab drivers, cleaners, security guards, or senior officials, Baker consistently gets people talking simply by asking questions and revealing little about himself. Most people want to talk about themselves, especially if they feel unseen or bored, and will freely give away valuable operational details (e.g., plant schedules, traffic patterns, frustrations) if someone shows genuine interest. For professionals, deliberately cultivating this habit—ask, then shut up—can dramatically improve how much you learn about clients, markets, and competitors without overt interrogation.

The CIA invests heavily in clarifying mission and acceptable risk before any operation; Baker argues most companies skip this. Leaders must explicitly define what success is, communicate it relentlessly, and set clear boundaries on what is and isn’t acceptable legally, ethically, and operationally. Once those are in place, waiting for perfect data becomes dangerous. Baker’s concept of “getting off the X” (the ambush point) means acting on incomplete information when indicators say inaction will be worse—whether that’s pivoting a business, leaving a job, or adjusting a strategy.

Baker notes Russia currently holds about 20% of Ukrainian territory, has superior manpower, and is grinding through a war of attrition while Ukrainian resolve and energy infrastructure erode. He expects a settlement around 2025 that leaves Russia with some of its current gains, possibly backed by a demilitarized buffer zone and UN peacekeepers, and conditions like blocking Ukraine from NATO. Western publics and leaders should adjust expectations away from ‘total victory’ narratives and toward how to structure, sell, and secure an ugly but stabilizing deal.

Citing experts he trusts, Baker argues Beijing views itself in a long-term struggle with the US‑led order and is acting accordingly: militarizing the South China Sea, rehearsing blockades around Taiwan, investing in space and directed-energy weapons, conducting massive cyber and economic espionage, and pushing disinformation. Meanwhile, Western publics mostly see a trade partner and an app ecosystem. Policymakers, businesses, and citizens should stop framing China merely as an economic competitor and start viewing its actions as part of a broad, coordinated campaign to reorder global power.