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Scott Galloway: Why young men quietly leave the Democrats

Republicans pulled young men from 35 percent in 2016 to 48 percent. Galloway blames rage algorithms, deficit silence, and a masculinity vacuum.

Scott GallowayguestSteven Bartletthost
Nov 4, 20241h 54mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:002:04

    Intro

    1. SG

      The election's gonna be decided based on who presents a more aspirational vision of masculinity. And what you have on the far right is this vision of being provocative, aggressive, speaking your mind. The far left, their vision of masculinity is being more like a woman. And if any of them resonates, it's the right. That could swing the entire election.

    2. SB

      What happens to America if Trump wins? Are you scared of that America?

    3. SG

      Scott Galloway is back, giving his objective, no-nonsense analysis...

    4. NA

      ... and what the upcoming US election means for the future of America and the world.

    5. SB

      Objectively, what has Trump done well?

    6. SG

      He's unpredictable. Look, I've publicly endorsed Vice President Harris, and one of the things I hate about my party quite frankly is we've become (beep) humorless. Everything's offensive and people are just so sick of that (beep) . And then he showed up and started saying these really offensive things that felt raw and felt authentic, and really appealed to people. And then if you go to the Democratic Party's website, there's a section that says, "Who we serve," and it lists 16 demographic groups, but not one mention of the group that has fallen furthest in the United States, and that's young men. Three out of four homeless people are men. Three times as likely to kill themselves, 12 times as likely to be incarcerated, and yet they're fighting for everyone except for them. But they feel seen by the Republican Party and Trump, even though under Trump, we'll probably have the largest tax increase in history on young people, and that has a lot of unfortunate ramifications. And I don't think young men realize this.

    7. SB

      Who do you think is gonna win?

    8. SG

      I'll tell you what I'm doing this afternoon. I'm gonna bet $358,000 on (beep) .

    9. SB

      This has always blown my mind a little bit. 53% of you that listen to this show regularly haven't yet subscribed to this show. So could I ask you for a favor before we start? If you like this show and you like what we do here and you wanna support us, the free simple way that you can do just that is by hitting the subscribe button. And my commitment to you is if you do that, then I'll do everything in my power, me and my team, to make sure that this show is better for you every single week. We'll listen to your feedback, we'll find the guests that you want me to speak to, and we'll continue to do what we do. Thank you so much.

  2. 2:045:19

    What Are You Thinking About At This Moment

    1. SB

      Scott, what are you thinking about at the moment?

    2. SG

      I'm thinking that I've been on this thing four times and I didn't get a jacket, and that you used to send this fat van with... for me with these lights and music and a little fridge. And today you sent me this Joey bag of donuts Uber.

    3. SB

      Oh really? Did we? Oh.

    4. SG

      So I feel like your side piece that you're... have kind of taken for granted. That's what I'm thinking about.

    5. SB

      The, the, the nice car will take you home after. He's outside.

    6. SG

      I appreciate it. What am I thinking about? Um, well, we're on the precipice of a, uh, what feels like an important election. Every election people say that in the US. The thing I can't get over, I just got back from the US, is how tense it is. Political parties used to be these organizations that tried to grow their membership through policy arguments. Now they've become these quasi-religions that attempt to sanctify your beliefs, and it feels like we're in a bit of a holy war. I couldn't get over how tense, and quite frankly how ugly it feels, uh, in the US. I was at a fundraiser last Saturday night in Miami, actually just south of Palm Beach and I was talking about teen mental health, and someone yelled out, "Trump 2024," which inspired someone else on the other side of the room to start booing. And we're talking about teen mental health. Things are so polarized, uh, in the US. So I'm, I'm anxious, um, and it feels like the US, despite all of its blessings, is kinda coming apart from the inside. It feels very polarized and very ugly right now in the US. That's what I'm thinking about.

    7. SB

      Every election cycle in the US people say that this is the most important election-

    8. SG

      Yeah.

    9. SB

      ... of our history, this is the most important election of our time. Do you believe that? Do you believe that this one's important?

    10. SG

      I would argue this one's more important. I don't like the catastrophizing from both sides. Each side would have you believe that it's the end of the Ame- uh, the end of America if the other side wins, which doesn't... which lacks historical context 'cause the US has endured, I would argue, much worse than him or her, regardless of what you believe. And America's actually doing quite well. Our institutions... You know, America's gonna be around in four years regardless of who wins, I believe. It does seem pretty consequential though, because this issue around bodily autonomy is a pretty big deal, whereas bodily autonomy has all headed towards a woman's right to determine her own bodily autonomy, you know, in, in Mexico, in, you know, Poland. I mean there... distinct of a few nations, almost every nation has gone one way and that's towards granting people more rights. And in the US it's the first time we've taken a right away. So that feels, that feels like a pretty big deal. And also we have an individual who has never conceded the election, so this notion of the peaceful transfer of power being pretty central to democracy but at the same time if people vote for an autocrat, that's their democratic right. And so, if America decides to go that way, it's gonna feel pretty odd, I think. And obviously I'm... I should put up front, I'm, I've publicly endorsed Vice President Harris. You know, perfect's not on the menu. She would not have been my choice for the Democratic nominee, but it does feel strange that we are so polarized and it's sort of a, uh, it feels like

  3. 5:1911:12

    What's Happened For Us To Get To This Point?

    1. SG

      an election between who America thinks would be less bad.

    2. SB

      What are all the, like, macro pieces here that have come together to create this sort of storm that we find ourselves in? 'Cause I think of some of them. I think about the role that Elon buying Twitter played in this. I think about-

    3. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    4. SB

      ... um, you know, Andrew Tate's rise in culture.

    5. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    6. SB

      I think about, um, the economic backdrop of what's going on, um, and all these pieces, you know, then Biden and then the inflation issues because of, like, COVID and the stimulus check, all of these pieces. What are those pieces that you think are most pertinent that have landed us in a situation where as we sit here, you know, with the election happening tomorrow in America-

    7. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    8. SB

      ... it's looking likely that Trump is going to win if you look at some of the-

    9. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SB

      ... the odds, but also young men in particular-... have s- s- for the first time in the last, you know, couple of decades, really seem to have abandoned the Democratic Party-

    11. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    12. SB

      ... and have gone for Trump? What are those macro pieces?

    13. SG

      There's a lot there. So first off, there's some dissonance between the perception, people have called it a vibe session, and that is if you look at the economic data, it's strikingly different than the perception. Uh, the majority of Americans think that America's headed in the wrong direction, and usually that has something to do with the economy. Since, um, I think it's 2019, the American economy has grown 12.5%. Uh, that's double of any G7 nation. In 2009, our stock market was a third of the total market capitalization of all stocks globally, now it's half. NVIDIA is worth more than the entire German stock market. China has shed several trillion dollars in market cap over the last five years, America has added several trillion dollars. We're the largest energy producer in the world. I mean, the just, uh, the economic... There's 190 sovereign nations in the world, 189 would trade places with us. If you take our poorest state, politicians always talk about Mississippi because it's our poorest state with the worst outcomes, the average household income in Mississippi is greater than it is in the UK, Germany or Japan. So our poorest state is doing better than many of what we would consider our competitors. No one's lining up for vaccines from Russia or China or flying to Dubai or to Seoul for AI software. Uh, America on any objective metric, lowest unemployment historically since 1968. It's just killing it. The problem is that prosperity, similar to what William Gibson said about the future, is here, but it's not evenly distributed. And you also have a lot of disruption, a lot of people who aren't, who feel like their way of life has been undermined, um, you have a lot of people who aren't doing as well as they used to. A lot of that prosperity is crowded in the top 1%. An economist did a study and said if you took out the top 1% of American earners, France has grown household income faster than the US. The bottom 99 aren't doing as well, but the top one are doing so well that quite frankly it creates this illusion of greater prosperity than there is. So for example, we look at the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ, 1% of America owns 90% of the stocks.

    14. SB

      Hm.

    15. SG

      So the Dow Jones is really just an indication or a metric on how the wealthy are doing. And spoiler alert, the wealthy have hit 76 new all-time highs in the last year, which is what has happened in the market. So you have this fissure between perception and reality, but also a lot of people aren't doing as well, and 210 times a day on their phone it's shoved in their face how well everyone else is doing. I think there's also the fundamental breakdown in the social compact in America is that for the first time, and we've talked about this before, the 30-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30. And that not only impacts the 30-year-old, it impacts his or her parents. It creates rage and shame. Uh, one out of three young men is living with their parents under the age of 25. One in five are still living with their parents at the age of 30. Uh, there's an absence of connection at a young age. Only one in three men has a girlfriend under the age of 30 because women are dating older because they want more economically and emotionally viable men. People are opting out of America, especially young people. Uh, 40 years ago, 60% of households with a 30-year-old in it, or 60% of 30-year-olds had at least one child, now it's 27%. S- so the ultimate expression of optimism in a society is you meet someone, you need to decide to have kids. And so that optimism has been cut in half. So you have this consumer dissonance or fissure between the economic reality and what's going on because a lot of people aren't doing well, and the social media algorithms love to pit people against each other. You have young people especially not doing well. The average 70-year-old is 72% wealthier than they were 40 years ago, the average person under the age of 40 is 24% less wealthy, and when young people or your kids aren't doing well, it impacts absolutely everybody. And then I would say just psychologically, when you are making more money at your job and now wage growth is growing faster than inflation so purchasing power is going up, prosperity is going up in the US, when you get a raise, you think it's because of your character and your grit, but when the price of cereal is up 40% in the last five years, you blame the administration. So you have social media algorithms pitting us against each other, you have the political parties who have taken on sort of this r- religious-like feel where the other party is literally the enemy, young people not doing as well, all sort of overwhelm the notion that America is the least bad in the world right now economically. On any metric,

  4. 11:1215:41

    Personality For Presidents Is More Important Than Ever

    1. SG

      like I said, every nation would kill to have our problems.

    2. SB

      I was just thinking as you were speaking about this idea as, of perception versus reality and then you mentioned algorithms and social media, and as you said that I thought to myself, do you know what's interesting? Now that algorithms and social media have made our politicians more visible than ever, if you go back 50 years you only saw them stood at the podium, right, making the speech, now you see them multiple times a day. If I scroll on Twitter, X, whatever, YouTube, I see Trump doing 10 speeches a day, I get to know him more. And I was wondering i- in this digital age, is personality now more important than ever when I'm not just seeing you at the podium, I'm seeing you for three hours on Rogan, then two hours later I'm seeing you in another state, then I'm seeing you on a clip, I'm seeing you at McDonald's? And so the old politicians of the past were very like straight.

    3. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    4. SB

      And you'd see them on the podium, how polished was that speech?

    5. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    6. SB

      Now it's actually, it seems the algorithms are going for lo-fi politicians and personality seems to be more important than principle.

    7. SG

      Yeah, we've definitely replaced politicians who were sort of pragmatists and practitioners who used to go to Congress and legislate and pass laws. We've replaced a lot of them with performers.

    8. SB

      Yeah. In the UK as well, we've just had a series of them.

    9. SG

      You always gotta look at incentives, and the person who raises the most money is almost always reelected. And the incumbent, 92% reelection rate despite the fact that Congress has an 8% approval. So the incentives are to raise a lot of money, and the easiest way to raise kind of a lot of money is small dollar donations. It's actually easier than trying to get money from a PAC or big money. And the way you do that is you say something fairly incendiary that tickles the censors of your tribe by making the other side look stupid. You say something, "Jewish space lasers," or, "Biden is a war criminal." That ends up on TikTok, and the hard left or the hard right see that and start sending in money. And so you have some of the most famous legislators in U, in US Congress have never passed a bill, but are outstanding at getting on TikTok and raising a lot of money. So it's gone from politicians to performers.

    10. SB

      I was just thinking about have I ever seen a boring politician on, go viral on TikTok, and I've nev-, I've just never seen it. I've never seen a boring... But even in the case you said where if you say something incendiary, it's both sides send you viral-

    11. SG

      Yeah.

    12. SB

      ... which is interesting.

    13. SG

      Well, look at Trump.

    14. SB

      (laughs)

    15. SG

      If he says, you know, if he says, um, something crazy that, "I'm gonna protect women whether they want it or not," that goes viral, and then everyone including on my podcast, we're talking about it instead of having a discussion about inflation. Or if Trump gets into office, his current economic plan shows triple the deficits of the Harris economic plan. That is essentially what we, what we've been able, unable to do, or the left's been unable to do is help young people connect the dots, that the deficit, uh, under Trump will probably be ultimately the largest tax increase in history on young people. Because I'm not gonna be around. We, we're fine for the next 20 or 30 years probably, 'cause of our creditworthiness and our ability to borrow money. But at some point, shit's gonna get real, and the Chinese or foreigners are gonna stop showing up to buy our Treasuries. Interest rates are gonna skyrocket, and you'd have massive inflation. And at some point, you know, that debt is gonna come due, right? Um, you know, so I've had every lie is a debt, and at some point it comes due. But y- we haven't been able to connect the dots for young people that these deficits will in fact be a tax on young people, because it's a wonky, boring conversation, and we'd rather talk about this outrageous thing you said. So these outrageous things people say take oxygen out of the room around any real discussion around policy. And in the US, I don't know if it's the same way in the UK, but politicians love their jobs, so they gerrymander it, gerrymander every district. Every congressional district is very hard red or hard blue. So we send kind of the crazies from the far left and the far right. It's no longer the general election. It's the primary. So it's a war, it's an election between Republicans or an election between Democrats. So they all try to out, out-conservative or out-progressive each other, and we've sent a group of people to, to Congress who fundamentally have a entirely different worldview than one another. And also it's minority rule. In the US, 20% of our population is 80% of the senator, senators. And the majority of Americans are somewhere in the middle-

    16. SB

      Mm-hmm.

    17. SG

      ... and that i- does not describe

  5. 15:4118:54

    What Has Trump Done Well?

    1. SG

      the representation. So we have sort of minority rule now.

    2. SB

      What has Trump done well? So if you were objectively analyzing his ability to capture votes and to get people to believe and come with him, what would you s-, if you, if this was a marketing class, and you had-

    3. SG

      Yeah.

    4. SB

      ... marketing students in front of you, and they were trying to learn from him-

    5. SG

      Yeah.

    6. SB

      ... as to how to market their products and their lives, what would you say to them?

    7. SG

      Well, the, the ultimate business strategy is when everyone's barking up the same tree, when everyone's zigging, you zag. So I'll just, uh, the notion that Amazon was the biggest e-commerce company, the model was you own the consumer data, you build the biggest platform, and then you slowly but surely start increasing your take. And then Shopify comes in and says, "Your packaging, your data." I mean, the opposite of Amazon. "We're not about the customer. We're about you're the customer, you're the client. You want to sell on our platform? You own everything. We're just here to service you." They kind of zag. Um, that's the ultimate business strategy when everyone's going one way to go the other. For the last 40 or 50 years, politicians have been very PG-13, trying to appeal to every group, worried about offending everybody. And people over time just felt like, "This guy's really slick and makes me feel good, but he or she's lying to me." And then he showed up and started saying these really offensive things that felt raw and felt authentic and really appealed to people. Like, "This guy's unafraid. He's telling it like it is." And he kind of tapped into this sort of grievance and anger that had been bubbling up and started saying these really off-color things. "I'm gonna ban Muslims from entering the country." And a lot of people s-, even if they don't believe that, said, "Well, you know, he's not a politi-, he wants to burn it down, and he doesn't like", he, he "wants to burn down his own party." So he really tapped into this authentic zeitgeist of zagging while everyone was zigging. He's k-, he's absolutely the most non-traditional politician. Uh, I think in person he is charming. Um, he's done a great job with social media, capturing attention. You know, we're in an attention economy, right? And he every day is in the news cycle, realizing that... It's like Umberto Eco, the Italian philosopher said, "The new economy is about being famous." It doesn't even matter what you're famous for. And he's captured that. So he s-, comes across as authentic, unafraid, politically incorrect in a sea of political correctness that kind of infected both sides. He has great political instincts.Um, so he's, he's kind of zagged while everyone was zigging and, um, and people found it refreshing. And even if people don't like him, they, uh, a lot of people are under the impression that because he's a business person... I, I think 40% of America goes into the voting booth and just votes on who they think will put more money in their pocket, full stop. They're like, "Government's ineffective. I just want them out of my pocket." And I think correctly or incorrectly, more Americans believe that they'll have more money in their pocket because he's a businessman and will lower taxes, even if we kick the can down the road in terms of deficit. He's convinced

  6. 18:5422:11

    Trump On Joe Rogan

    1. SG

      Americans that he's better on the economy than the Democrats.

    2. SB

      You watched him on Joe Rogan the other day?

    3. SG

      I saw some of it.

    4. SB

      That whole strategy of getting out and doing the podcast circuit, I think is, this is the first election cycle where I've seen podcasting become so important. And that-

    5. SG

      100%

    6. SB

      ... that Joe Rogan-Trump moment I think is a real defining moment in podcasting, but also, like, um, political strategy. What did you think of that move?

    7. SG

      You're, you're absolutely right, Steven. This, so every election brings a new medium to the forefront. Kennedy and TV, FDR and radio, um, Obama and Google, uh, Trump and Twitter. This will be the election, the podcast election, 'cause the last time there was a presidential race, since the last presidential rate- race, cable TV is down 22% and podcasts are up 30%. So by going on Joe Rogan, 11 million people, 40 million people have seen that on YouTube. The average cable show gets about a half a million, a, a primetime cable show gets about half a million people. So going on Rogan for Trump is the equivalent or reaches the same number of people as if he went on MSNBC, CNN, and Fox every night during primetime for an hour, every day for an entire week. He will reach more people going on Rogan. You might get 300,000 or 400,000 going on CNN maybe for a 6-minute or 10-minute or 20-minute interview, so this is definitely this, the election of podcasts. They have become dominant. I would argue the seminal podcast was actually, uh, Vice President Harris going on Call Her Daddy, because not only would, did they not go on this medium, they wouldn't have gone on that type of podcast. But for a week, the entire zeitgeist in the US was talking about that podcast. It wasn't talking about her interview on Face the Nation or... It was talking about her on this podcast. So this is the election of, of the podcaster.

    8. SB

      For me, as an objective marketeer, watching that Rogan interview, I thought that Trump's team did a masterstroke. I thought it was-

    9. SG

      Yeah, 100%.

    10. SB

      I thought they, I thought it was absolutely the, the perfect thing to do, because-

    11. SG

      100%.

    12. SB

      ... it absolutely humanized Trump in a way-

    13. SG

      Softened him.

    14. SB

      ... softened him in a way that I hadn't seen before. And funnily enough, I won't name their name, but I know a lady who's, um, a very strong feminist and is very anti-Trump and is very liberal, and she said she watched it. And the next day I said to her, "What did you think of it?" And she said to me, "I burst out laughing, like, 10 times. He's so funny."

    15. SG

      He's a charming guy.

    16. SB

      That's what she said to me.

    17. SG

      And he talks about, you know, when he was on The Apprentice and it softened him, made him seem more human, which is what he needs. Um, so it's a big mistake. Occasionally, I hear from the campaign and they ask for advice and... Whenever a campaign calls you and asks for advice-

    18. SB

      Which, which campaign?

    19. SG

      Well, I've... The only people who've ever contacted me have been on the Harris side.

    20. SB

      Harris.

    21. SG

      I got contacted by the Trump campaign in the last cycle, but not this one. I think they've figured out who I'm supporting. And whenever, by the way, I want to be clear, when they call you and ask for advice, that's Latin for please send us money. They pre- I think they pretend to care what you think. Uh, so I don't want to pretend that I'm having any sort of influence, but my one piece of advice to anyone I can talk to who's remotely linked to the Harris campaign

  7. 22:1131:41

    Why Are Men Choosing Trump

    1. SG

      is that she get on a plane, go to Austin and do Rogan.

    2. SB

      Why is it in your view that men are... 'Cause, you know, Trump's assembled this kind of, this group of interesting individuals to, to be part of his campaign from RFK to Elon to-

    3. SG

      Yeah.

    4. SB

      ... Vivek to Tulsi Gabbard now and, and himself. And this has drawn in, it seems like young men, it seems like a lot of the... I actually did a poll in my group chat the other day, three or four days ago, so it's six men in there. And I polled them all, I said, "Who do you want to win the election?" And four of them said Trump. My position actually, which I've not really ever shared publicly, is that I, I see no great option.

    5. SG

      Oh, perfect's not on the menu?

    6. SB

      Yeah. I see no great option.

    7. SG

      Yeah. Yeah.

    8. SB

      So I'm like... And the, the things that, again, I think a lot about are the, the war, the wars that are going around the world-

    9. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SB

      ... so I ask myself, who will stop the wars? And I think a little bit about the economy and then also just from a selfish perspective, think about my ability to build businesses, to get visas in the US-

    11. SG

      Sure.

    12. SB

      ... and those kinds of things.

    13. SG

      Yeah.

    14. SB

      And I also think about re- women's reproductive rights 'cause I think that's a, an issue that's quite close to my heart, but why are men choosing Trump?

    15. SG

      So this is an unusual election in the sense that neither of these candidates, based on their metrics, has ever been elected before. We've never had since, I think since maybe, uh, Roosevelt, was it Roosevelt or Truman actually, have we had a president, an incumbent party be reelected when they're, have less than a 50% approval rate. So we... If Harris gets elected, it's a, almost a first time occurrence that an incumbent administration this unpopular gets reelected. Trump never cracked 50% approval. No, no presidential candidate who has never been above 50% has ever been reelected. So whoever wins, it's un- it's an unprecedented election of someone who typically does not get reelected. In terms of men, uh, what you've seen is young men are going more conservative, young women are going slightly more progressive. And that has a lot of unfortunate ramifications because again, it's another reason why young people are not getting together and mating. It's yet another reason not to date somebody. When I was your age, I was thinking about this when I was dating-... for the life of me, if I went through every person I've dated in my 20s and 30s, I don't remember what their political affiliation was. I didn't care. We didn't talk about that. It was like, you know, "Are you fun? I'm fun. Are you attracted to me? I'm not... you know, like, let's go out. Let's drink. Let's do it. Let's see where this goes." We didn't talk about politics. So it's a shame because now politics is now kind of a gender divide.

    16. NA

      Mm-hmm.

    17. SG

      So it's having social ramifications. I would argue that young men are not going to the Republican Party. They're actually less conservative or... People have this image of young men that their knuckles are dragging along the ground. They actually are almost as in favor of gender rights as young women. What I would argue is that they're leaving the Democratic Party because if you go to the DNC, the Democratic Party's website, there's a section that says, "Who we serve." Click on it. And it says, "These are the constituents in America that we serve, that we advocate for," and it lists 16 demographic groups ranging from, um, Asians and Pacific Islanders, the disabled, seniors, Black Americans, um, veterans. It goes through all of these groups. And I tried to add it up, and I think it adds up to 76% of the US population. But similar to kind of the DEI apparatus on campus now or on university campuses, when you're purposely advocating and trying to advantage 76% of the population, you're not advantaging 76% of the population or advocating for them. You're discriminating against the 24%. And that 24% are squarely one group. It's young men. And if you look at the Democratic National Convention, it was a parade of demographic groups, but not one mentioned the group that has fallen furthest, fastest in the United States, and that's young men. Families and young men feel this, right? We don't have an opioid or a homeless crisis in the United States. We have a male opioid and a male homeless crisis. Three out of four opioid addicts, three out of four homeless people are men, right? Three times as likely to kill themselves, 12 times as likely to be incarcerated. Women under the age of 30 are now making more money than men. More single women own homes than single men. And by the way, we should never do anything to get in the way of that. That's a remarkable victory for us. But a lot of young men and their families feel that they are... these young men are really struggling, and they are not seen by the Democratic Party. Because the Democratic Party, I would argue that our big failure over the last 20 years is we've become sort of these self-appointed cops of social justice and have tried to, tried to lecture the nation on what is the right social policy or behaviors and that America has pretty squarely rejected this. Um, um, the example I use is the University of Michigan, amazing university, has invested $150 million in DEI, social policy, and the number of complaints about racism is up thirtyfold. The sentiment, the feeling about America has all gone down. And so the Democrats have decided, "We're about social policy as opposed to the economic policies that are actually gonna impact you," and a large part of America has sort of rejected it. Young men do not feel seen by the Democratic Party. And it's not only just young men, but it's their families. SoI would argue it's not so much they're moving to the Republican Party as they're moving away from the Democratic Party. But there's just a... to use this overused term, young men do not feel seen by the Democratic Party. It's like, "You're fighting for everyone except for me. And let's be honest, my group is not doing well." The group that has ascended the fastest globally is women. Um, twice as many women in the last 30 years elected to some form of parliament. More women globally now are seeking tertiary education than men. By the way, again, a huge victory for all of us. Fantastic. But there's this analogy that, uh, uh, Chris Williams, the p- podcaster, kind of reminds me a little bit of you, uses, and he calls it the high heels effect. And that is 50% of women say they won't date someone who's shorter than them. I bet it's more like 80%. It's just an embarrassing thing to say. And it's very instinctual because women at some point are more vulnerable because of pregnancy and raising kids, and they want someone who instinctively they feel could physically protect them. So they tend to be not attracted to a man shorter than them. Metaphorically, women are getting taller and taller each year, making more money, more college attendance. They're just killing it. More and more people elected to positions of power and influence. Men are getting shorter and shorter. So in sum, you know, we've talked about this, women mate socioeconomically horizontally and up, men horizontally and down. The pool of horizontal and up among men is smaller. And when men don't have the prospect of a romantic relationship, they come off the rails. Women oftentimes will reinvest that energy in friendships and work. Men reinvest that energy in vaping and video games and porn. I mean, men without the prospect of a romantic relationship... I mean, look at the most violent, unstable places in the world. They all have a preponderance of things, and that is a bunch of men with very little economic or romantic opportunities. And so you have a cohort of not only young men, but families that are upset and angry about this cohort, maybe unfairly expectant around what they should expect from, uh, the American economy. But they're not doing well, and they feel seen by the Repub- the Republican Party and Trump, who are pushing back on many of these social policies that the snake is eating its own, its own tail, that it's gotten so far to the progressive that, at the end of the day, it's no longer promoting the rights of non-whites, for example. 60 years ago, 12 Black people at Princeton, Harvard, and Yale. That's a problem. Uh, two-thirds of Harvard's freshman class now identifies as non-white.... and somehow, as a non-white male that's not making as much money, that's more inclined to be an addict or gambling, that owns fewer homes, somehow I'm still the enemy. I'm still, like, I've been told by media that I'm kind of, should have collective guilt because of the privilege my dad and my granddad received. So there's a, I think, justifiable anger and a feeling that the Democratic Party has really moved away from young men.

    18. SB

      It's interesting 'cause you, you make the case that you're not necessarily convinced it's entirely young men are choosing the Republican Party versus them being pushed out of the Democratic Party. That kind of summarizes your thoughts. And The Wall Street Journal, um, did a piece showing that, uh, the Republican Party have gained more young men over the last couple of years. In 2016, they had 35% of young men. By 2023, they had 48% of young men, and that's a 13-point increase in just seven years. And I mean, that's the stat from 2023, so I can't imagine what those numbers look like in 2024 based on this election cycle. Um, it made me think a lot bec- it made me think a lot about the, the DEI narrative and how the Democratic Party could champion women without pushing away young men because we all want somewhere to belong.

    19. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    20. SB

      So if you, if you tell me that

  8. 31:4139:33

    What Is That Trump Is Saying To Make Young Men Vote For Him?

    1. SB

      I don't belong there and if I'm guilty of something, then I'm gonna go find somewhere. And what is it that the Republican Party have done? Because if that 13% increase towards the Republican Party for young men is true, there's something the Republican Party are saying-

    2. SG

      Yeah.

    3. SB

      ... which is making me think I belong over there.

    4. SG

      Sure.

    5. SB

      What is that?

    6. SG

      Well, to a certain extent, I mean, the strange thing about this, or one of the strange things about this election is that a lot of people thought it was gonna be a referendum on women's rights, bodily autonomy. I would argue those voters are already decided. If you're fiercely, uh, around, uh, focused on bodily autonomy, you're going for Harris. If it's not a big issue for you, um, you're probably Trump. Or if you're pro-life, you're definitely Trump. I actually think the election is gonna be decided based on who presents a more aspirational, effective vision of masculinity. And what you have on the far right is this vision of masculinity that I would argue is kind of, they would, they would s- say it's being provocative, aggressive, speaking your mind, strength, right? Toughness. But the far right is basically saying be a little bit coarse and cruel, is how I would describe it. The far left, their vision of masculinity is be more like a woman. And neither of those seem to be resonating with men. If any of them resonates, it's, it's the right, uh, around young men, around this vision of masculinity. What I would argue is that what we should (sighs) or the way to position it, you said that you were passionate about bodily autonomy, is the Democrats have not done a good job of convincing young men that bodily autonomy will affect them, specifically a lack thereof. If you wanna be kinda cemented in poverty, have an unwanted child as a man. That's not gonna help you economically. The case I've been making to young men when I did an endorsement of Vice President Harris is that I think if you polled, uh, a bunch of men under the age of 30 and said, "Would you rather have more opportunities for sex or less opportunities?" I think the majority would say, "I'd rather have more opportunities for sex." What is gonna happen to random opportunities for sex when if a woman gets pregnant, she might end up in an emergency room parking lot because the doctors won't treat her? Th- say she's having a failed pregnancy and she's in sepsis. There are now s- instances where an emerg- emergency room doctors are worried about treating her for fear that they're gonna be criminally prosecuted. What's gonna happen if a young woman gets pregnant and has to carry the baby to term? Do you think she's more inclined to have random sex? So, I think what we needed to do and we failed to do on the progressive side is to say that bodily autonomy affects men almost as much as it does young women, and that the economic policies of Harris will also give you... I mean, if, I think about masculinity as being a provider, a protector, and a procreator. Provider. Who's gonna give young men the chance to be the better provider? People think it's gonna be Trump, that he's a better business person. He did have a strong economy under his administration. Not as strong as the Biden administration, but the general view is he would offer a better economy. Which atmosphere am I more likely to be a good provider in? And they've done a better job of articulating that, even though I would argue the evidence is that if, whether it's Goldman Sachs or any investment bank that's done the math, they've said that the economic growth under the Harris policies would probably be stronger, especially when you take into account that if, if Trump enacts the tariffs he's talking about, 60% on all Chinese goods, and does anything resembling the war on immigration, legal and illegal, that he's articulated, that's a recipe for inflation. So, I don't think, I think the Republican Party has done a better job of convincing men, "You're gonna have an easier time being a provider under our administration 'cause look at him, he's a billionaire. We're about cutting taxes. We're about economic growth. Drill, baby, drill," when I would argue the data does not reflect that. Protector. This is where I think we really blew it, and that is, and Michelle Obama gave a very powerful speech. I think your first instinct, your operating system as a man should be, your default operating system should be move to protection. Like, real men break up fights at bars. They don't start them. Real men protect their country. They don't shitpost it. Real men have a real s- a real instinct, a reflex instinct. I felt this way very strongly when I was younger. It was very motivating for me, to protect the women in their life, right? You know, uh, I don't know if you, are you close with your mother?

    7. SB

      Not really.

    8. SG

      Uh, I'm sorry to hear that. Um, I was very close with my mother, and the first time I ever thought, "I need to get my shit together professionally," was when she got sick. And I had this immense feeling of, like, failure as a man 'cause I couldn't take care of my mom at the level I wanted to. I think that's a really good default setting for a man, to move to protection.... you don't need to understand the LGBT community, you don't need to understand trans rights, you don't need to understand the nuances of legal or illegal immigration. But when you see a group being demonized, your default setting should be to protection. I think it comes naturally to men. Men are more inclined on the battlefield to run out and save a comrade and get shot than women. Women are more thoughtful. They're more like, "Is that a good idea? Wouldn't we be better retreating, planning, and then kicking the shit out..." They're more, they're more thoughtful. They look at the fruit and say, "Is there pesticides in this?" Whereas a guy sees movement in the bushes, grabs his spear and tries to go kill the thing and bring it back. They're more prone to... They're more risk aggressive. And I think this default setting of protection is really powerful for men and we haven't connected... And I thought Michelle Obama did an outstanding job trying to make the case that men need to have a default setting around protecting women. And women's rights are under real serious threat in the United States. It is becoming a little bit Handmaid's Tale. 21 states now restrict, to some extent, abortion. And the most mendacious thing about that is it's not a war on women, it's a war on poor women. Because if you have money and someone, your niece or your daughter gets pregnant, you'll figure it out. You'll get your, you'll get a medical abortion, you'll have a- access to misopstrone, mis- I don't know if I'm saying that correctly, or, uh, can get her on a plane to a city where she can terminate the pregnancy. It's the 15 or 17-year-old Black girl who gets pregnant, doesn't have access to resources, single mother, doesn't have money, is embarrassed, and no one knows it until she's five months pregnant, that person is really screwed. So I- I would argue that the second leg of the masculinity stool here around protection is, uh, not been made that strongly or as forcefully as it should be around the Democratic policies.

    9. SB

      I was trying to think through the lens of someone, a young man in the U- in the USA who is looking at both candidates and thinking, "Which one is g- gonna allow me to be the protector better?"

    10. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    11. SB

      And again, this is where the economy comes back in because I think to myself, "Well, if I'm rich then I can take-"

    12. SG

      You can protect.

    13. SB

      "... care of my mother."

    14. SG

      100%.

    15. SB

      "If I'm rich, I can take care of my family. So if I want to be the big strong protector, then I need to vote Trump because I'm going to get rich."

    16. SG

      I think that's their message, and I would argue the data actually says, uh, something different. That if you look at the economic policies, uh, the- the- the clearest signal we have of what policies would be under Harris would be to look at Biden's policies the last four years. As a matter of fact, she made a huge mistake on a big show called The View. They asked her how she would differ, how her policies would be different-

    17. SB

      I saw.

    18. SG

      ... from Biden, and she says, "I can't think of anything."

    19. SB

      Yeah.

    20. SG

      And it's like, well, we didn't want to elect him again. Why would we want to elect you? It was a huge gap. And by the way, she's not good on her feet. I mean, we don't like to say that on the left. She's gotten better. She was outstanding in the debate because you could tell she practiced and had the split screen. She destroyed him during the debate. But on her feet, she's not nearly as good as him.

  9. 39:3341:12

    Trump Speaking His Mind Is A Super Power

    1. SG

      He comes off... He says stupid things, but he's likable and funny and-

    2. SB

      She thinks too much.

    3. SG

      She's just-

    4. SB

      You see her trying to mold for the perfect answer, whereas he just goes, "Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba."

    5. SG

      Yeah.

    6. SB

      "I walked into the room and I told Putin..." (laughs) Stop that.

    7. SG

      Yeah. "I said way."

    8. SB

      (laughs)

    9. SG

      I mean, like, you said way to the President of Russia? And also, if you want to see real sexism and misogyny in America, there's just no getting around it. She is graded on an entirely different curve than him. If she had ever been accused of sexual assault, if she'd said half the crazy shit he's said, it just would be like everyone's hair on fire. She'd be totally disqualified. You know, Van Jones, who I admire a lot, said, "He's lawless. She has to be flawless." I mean, people are parsing her words and then, you know, he says, uh, he says the most... The strangest, weirdest things that make no sense and seem sort of just, you know, just ridiculous. So she's graded on an entirely different curve than him. But provider, right, they've done a better job. Protector, I think men are s- young men are starting to see that this is getting really serious around bodily autonomy and we're heading in the wrong direction. And then procreation and all these things are tied together. She's pro- You know, she's offering a first-time home buyer's tax credit, small business loans. She... Her tax policy would probably be better for young people, worse for older rich people, right? So I would argue that... And also, uh, at the end of the day, bodily autonomy. Uh, I go back to what I said earlier. Guys, if you're looking to have sex, you gotta give women control o-

  10. 41:1242:41

    You're Judged By The Character You Build

    1. SG

      dominion over their... domain over their own person.

    2. SB

      There's a, there's a few things that I thought as you, as you were talking through that then. One of them is, um, in life generally, you've got to be careful what hill you build yourself. And what I mean by that is, if Kamala Harris has built this hill of perfection and polish, then that's what she's graded on. And it's the same for all of us. M- I remember having a conversation with my friend who was taking to the internet to talk about environmental issues and stuff like that, when I knew he didn't really give a fuck about those things. And I said to him, I said, "Be very careful because if that's the brand you build for yourself, that's the... also the brand you'll be attacked based on, because no one wants a contradiction. So be careful." You might not want to be perfect. I think the, the best, the sort of most protective position you can take in a world of cancel culture and wokeism is to admit how shit you are at everything-

    3. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    4. SB

      ... and admit how imperfect you are and how much you don't recycle, because then at least nobody can call you out. And what Donald Trump has built is this hill of like kind of sloppiness, off-the-cuff, so we're so desensitized to it and we don't actually hold him to the standard of the law anymore.

    5. SG

      Yeah.

    6. SB

      And so he is... he's almost impossible to attack because it's so consistent.

    7. SG

      Well-

    8. SB

      It's so consistent.

    9. SG

      ... if you're gonna be accused of assault by a woman, the key is to be accused by 28. Uh, you know, you don't, you don't say one offensive thing, you say offensive things every time you open your mouth.

    10. SB

      Rappers are the prime example. No one comes at them for what they say.

    11. SG

      No, but if some... If Taylor Swift said something off-

    12. SB

      Oh, God.

    13. SG

      ... I'd be like, "Whoa." You know, it... So it's flood the zone, but he seems authentic.And I also think that this is

  11. 42:4150:56

    We Should Move Away From Identity Politics

    1. SG

      a lesson for the Democratic Party, I think, to get out of identity politics. I don't think we should have that page identifying policies based on y- your race, your sexual orientation, your gender. I- I- I think the sun has passed midday on that. I think-

    2. SB

      On DEI, the whole DEI thing?

    3. SG

      ... I would argue that affirmative action is a wonderful thing, and it made sense for it to be race-based back in 1960.

    4. SB

      What is that, sorry?

    5. SG

      Well, DEI, or affirmative action, so essentially in America, we've decided to advantage certain people from a very young age. We give them money, we give them preference getting into college. We're told we hire them based on their gender, their sexual orientation, the color of their skin, so we give, we, uh, advantage some people, which there's just no getting around it, disadvantages others. So the question is, most people agree, Democrats and Republicans, that some people have had so many headwinds in their face, they deserve a hand-up. The question is, how do you identify them? What's the metric for qualifying for a hand-up? And traditionally, it's based on D... The DEI apparatus built on campus has been based on identity politics. You know, are you gay? Are you non-white, right? Where... And what I would argue is that we need to move past that, get out of identity politics, still have affirmative action, but it should be based on color, and that color should be green. And that is, in America, and this is wonderful, today, you'd rather be born non-white or gay than poor, and there's all sorts of evidence. And so Harvard now, two-thirds of their freshman class is non-white, but 70% of those non-whites came from upper-income homes with dual parents. So letting in the Taiwanese billionaire private equity daughter is not diversity. So where I think we need to head in the nation is to move away, in the Democratic Party, from identity politics and say, "You know what? We're here to, to continue to reinvest in the greatest innovation in history, and that's the middle class, and we're here to give people from, uh, lower income homes a hand-up." And by the way, 70% of the people who now benefit from affirmative action would still get it, because we do still have a bit of an economic apartheid in the US. Black and Latino households, average net worth around 20, 25 grand. Average white household, 150, 160 grand. So what you would do is, the people who would lose in a new construct would be non-whites from wealthy households, and the people who would gain are white kids from Appalachia who come from low-income homes. But you tell some white kid being raised by a single parent in Kentucky whose dad has been incarcerated that, "Oh, no, you don't deserve any sort of help," uh, that family is pretty pissed off. So I... Uh, and I have a bias here. I'm a beneficiary of affirmative action. I got something called Pell Grants. I was raised by a single immigrant mother who lived and died a secretary. Our household income was never over $40,000, so I got grants, not loans, based on my household income, and that... Obviously, I'm a big fan of that, and so I think the Democratic Party would be well-served to move away from identity politics and just talk about things like the middle class, talk about helping people who are... You know, if you, if you are from a top 1% income earning household, you're 77 times more likely to get into an elite school. The best thing that can happen to you in the US, the smartest thing you can do is decide to be born to rich parents. It's an, a different life. And so I believe what the University of California system did in 1997, 27 years ago, is the right way to go, and that is they banned race-based affirmative action, and they have what's called an adversity score now. And they say, "Has this kid shown resilience and an ability to overcome obstacles in his or her life?" And I think that's the right way to run, quite frankly, government policies, because when we get into identity politics, I think it just creates more... It's now creating more problems than it's solving.

    6. SB

      I completely agree, and I'm obviously, you know, I think people would consider t- me to be a Black man 'cause my mother's, um, Nigerian. I was born in Africa, but... And, you know, we had a tumultuous start, uh, in, in... to my, to my life, I guess, in a, in a way, 'cause we, we didn't have money in the household. We struggled economically, but now, I'm good.

    7. SG

      Yeah.

    8. SB

      So my future Black kids aren't requiring any kind of advantages (laughs) because they're gonna be born into a different class.

    9. SG

      100%.

    10. SB

      So you don't need to give my future Black kids adv- like, uh, any leg up in the world when they've started with a dad who can... who is... can open doors for them and can get them into whatever school he wants to get them into. So my belief has been, and it's a real belief that's grown, grown in me over the last couple of years, is that we should be doing this based on class, as you say-

    11. SG

      Yeah.

    12. SB

      ... and benefiting those at the very bottom of the socioeconomic ladder, um, with those advantages, and not people like my future kids-

    13. SG

      That's right.

    14. SB

      ... who absolutely will not need it in any regard, and I do think their... the DEI conversation's a bit problematic, and I've tried to keep it away from my, my companies, but at the same time, we do want a diversity of opinion. We do want a, a diversity of lived experience because we're in the creative industries, and we wanna see... we want to represent the world. But we don't wanna be disproportionately handing out opportunities based on factors like race alone or, or gender alone.

    15. SG

      It's encouraging to hear you say that, but also, I also have to acknowledge I've been the beneficiary of massive bias. I didn't even... I... When I was raising money for my companies in the '90s, I didn't even acknowledge it. Why are the only people getting funded in Silicon Valley white dudes? All white dudes. 98% of the capital was going to not men, white men. It's like, okay, I didn't even notice, and it's gotten a lot better, but I... when I was raising money for my last company, L2, the venture capital firm that backed us, they have a standard, and that is you have to meet with all the partners in, um, one big meeting, 27 partners. My two co-founders, both women.... I'm in there, I didn't even notice, meeting goes well. In the middle of the meeting, my co-founder, who's not a dramatic person, goes, "I need to speak to you." We walk out and she's like, "We can't take money from these guys." I'm like, "W- why? What's happened?" She's like, "You haven't noticed? All 27 people are men. There's not a single woman in the partnership of this venture capital firm. Not one out of 27." And I, it di- it didn't even dawn on me that all of this prosperity and opportunity had been crowded into basically 23% of the population. Now having said that, that was 2014. 10 years later, I think a quarter to a third of their partners are now female, because they got the memo and things have changed dramatically. And I would like to think that we made enough progress around affirmative action, around identity that we can move to what you're talking about. And that's economically driven affirmative action.

    16. SB

      And the great thing about this as well is, as you said a second ago, the people who are in those minorities, because of the statistics, will be included within a class-based system.

    17. SG

      The majority.

    18. SB

      The majority, yeah.

    19. SG

      Yeah.

    20. SB

      Um, which is really, really encouraging. You talked about this October surprise, being Tony Hi- Hinchcliffe's, um, speech at the Madison Square Garden-

    21. SG

      Rally, yeah.

    22. SB

      ... um, rally the other day.

    23. NA

      You know, there's a lot going on. Like I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. Yeah. I think it's called Puerto Rico-

    24. (laughing)

    25. Okay. All right. (laughs) Okay. We're getting there. It's absolutely wild to see. And in Texas, stuff is really, really crazy. We're right there by a wide open border. Where are my proud Latinos at tonight?

    26. (cheering)

    27. You guys see what I mean? It's wide open, there's so many of them. It's absolutely incredible. Believe it or not, people, I welcome migrants to the United States of America with open arms. And by open arms, I mean like this.

    28. (laughs)

    29. (laughs) It's wild. And these Latinos,

  12. 50:561:04:02

    The October Surprise

    1. NA

      they love making babies too, just know that. They do. They do. There's no pulling out.

    2. (faintly) Knock it off!

    3. They don't do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country.

    4. (laughs)

    5. (laughs) Republicans are the party with the good sense of humor.

    6. SB

      I, I, I feel like I'm in two minds about it-

    7. SG

      Go ahead.

    8. SB

      ... because I think mind one is I go, he's a comedian and-

    9. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SB

      ... everybody knows he was telling a joke.

    11. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    12. SB

      Everybody knows that, A, it wasn't Trump that said it-

    13. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    14. SB

      ... and B, everyone knows that he's a comedian there to say inappropriate things, if you've listened-

    15. SG

      Yep.

    16. SB

      ... to his Kill Tony show, that's what he does.

    17. SG

      Yeah.

    18. SB

      He's not... I, there's no part of me that thinks, "God, he hates Puerto Ricans," or whatever. And then the other part of my mind goes, they should have known that in that context, any word would be used as an opportunity to create a marketing campaign. Do you think... what do you think of that incident?

    19. SG

      Uh, so there's common ground with this. I think comedians should be cut a really, a really wide berth. I think when Dave Chappelle says offensive things about the trans community, he should be given a wide berth. When Michelle Wolf at the White House Correspondents Dinner says really off-color things, I think she should be given a wide berth. Though comedians play a really important role, and that is they say provocative, sometimes obnoxious, offensive things to soften the beach to get you to think. And they're comedians. So I agree with you, they should be given a wide berth. In my view, whether you think it was racist or not, I don't think that's an important conversation. It's... uh, 10 days before the election, t- uh, art is getting away with it. If you say something offensive, it better be funny. I say a... w- well, part of the success of my podcast with Kara Swisher is I say very offensive things, you know. She's a lesbian and I'm like, "You know, how's the German shepherd in the Subaru?" And there's a pause, an uncomfortable pause, and then she laughs and it gives everyone permission to laugh. And the majority of the times I say something offensive, it's a little bit, "Oh God, I don't want to laugh, but that was funny." I get away with it. That's art. He did not... he, that was not art, it wasn't funny. I mean, the worst, the most offensive thing about what he said was it wasn't funny. If it had been fucking hilarious, people would be like, "Oh my God," they'd be like... and they would have forgiven him. His jokes did not land. And when he said things like, "We welcome immigrants with open hands and what we say to Mexican immigrants is, 'No, not here.'" And, uh, "And by the way, they have kids, they come inside just the way they came inside..." And it's just like... it just wasn't that funny. It was offensive. If you're going to be offensive, you better be funny. And he wasn't. And just tactically speaking, when you say that there's this floating island of garbage in the sea and it's Puerto Rico, and there are 400,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, and if 10,000 more who might have sat on the couch that day actually get up and kind of, you know, soles to polls, feet on the street, get to the poll, those people could swing Pennsylvania, which is a tossup right now. And Pennsylvania could swing the entire election. So just tactically speaking, whoever's in charge of his campaign, when they saw the teleprompter... By the way, they knew what was going on. This was on a teleprompter. On a risk adjusted basis, they should have said, "No, we're gonna put the jokes about Puerto Ricans aside for now, because if, for whatever reason, on a risk adjusted basis we offend them, we could lose the entire election." So I don't even think of it as an argument around whether comedians should be given a wide berth or not, I agree with you. I don't, I don't think a conversation around whether it reflects racism on the part of, of the Trump administration or the fact that they, quite frankly, have a really appealing sense of humor. One of the things I hate about my party, quite frankly, is we've become fucking humorless.

    20. SB

      (laughs)

    21. SG

      Everything's offensive. Everything is...I mean, unless it's a dad joke, everything is offensive or triggers people. It's... People are just so sick of that shit. A post-racist society, I have... M- majority of my close friends are gay, and they constantly make fun of my sexual orientation, and I make fun of theirs, and it's a form of affection. It's not mean-spirited. And the Democratic Party feels just so sensitive and so weak on this shit. So, whether you think that's the right way to go, to be a, a touch offensive, sometimes very offensive in the auspices of comedy, I'm down with that. Tactically, it was stupid, and I believe it might be the October surprise. I'll be very curious. I have friends who are canvassing. And I, I wanna be clear, a lot of it is confirmation bias. I'm seeing ghosts where I wanna see them, right? Because I'm really hoping it's Vice President Harris. But I have talked to people in the Harris campaign. We have 300,000 people, feet on the street, walking people to the polls. Trump supposedly has 50,000, somewhere between 30 and 50,000. So, for every one person knocking on doors for a Trump voter and saying, "Did you... Have you gone to the polls? Do you need me to walk there? Do you need a ride there?" there's 10 people in these states, these swing states, working for Harris. I think they might get another 5 or 10,000 Puerto Ricans who weren't gonna vote to the polls, and that could swing the entire election. I just think tactically, on a risk-adjusted basis, it was a really stupid move.

    22. SB

      Yeah, 100%. On a... Strategic, tactical, giving the other side an opportunity to run ads with the Trump-Vance little placard thing there, with someone insulting Puerto Ricans. Peop- most people wouldn't have seen the rally, so all they're gonna see is this cli- hundreds of millions of people are gonna see that clip and they're gonna think, "Trump-Vance insulting Puerto Ricans. That's who I am. That's my blood. I can no longer, with good faith, tick that box. I can no longer do it." So they'll either not, not tick it, or they'll go to the polls, and they otherwise wouldn't have done. So tactically and strategically, terrible decision. But it's funny, because I also look at it, as I said, as an incident in an isolation, and I go, it actually put me off a little bit, the, the left, because of the fake outrage. I know you're not that-

    23. SG

      The indignance, yeah.

    24. SB

      ... pissed off. Yeah, yeah. They're like, "Oh, I can't believe-"

    25. SG

      How dare you! (laughs)

    26. SB

      I look at them going, I know you're not that pissed off at that.

    27. SG

      Yeah, we're, we're okay.

    28. SB

      Like, and if you are, I feel really sorry for the life you live.

    29. SG

      Yeah, we're okay.

    30. SB

      Yeah, you know what I mean?

  13. 1:04:021:06:19

    Emotion & Facts

    1. SB

      made his case for why the au- the vaccine doesn't give you autism, went through the stats, the facts, and the figures. And then the neuroscientist said to me, she goes, "And then Trump made his case, and he started his case like this. 'The needle, I've got a friend who was, has a daughter who is this big,' and points to the floor."

    2. SG

      After a vaccine, yeah.

    3. SB

      "And they came to her with a needle this big, and they gave her the injection, and she's got autism."

    4. SG

      Yeah.

    5. SB

      And, uh, the neuroscientist said to me, she goes, "I know he's not telling the truth, but even me, I felt less likely to give my daughter th- that vaccine because of that one emotional personal anecdote versus the stats." And this is what this election looks like to me. The stats don't matter. The facts don't matter. How do I feel? What is the frame telling me when I look at you?

    6. SG

      Yeah. Well, also, it, it reflects a, a, a lack of respect for our institutions, both Republicans and Democrats. The anti-vax movement actually started on the far left. It was sort of a granola, don't put weird things in your bodies, but I think as much as you're talking about wanting to tickle people's emotional sensors so they move, they wanna feel good as opposed to think about the data, we used to come together around data and we used to respect institutions. When the American Pediatric Association said there's no evidence showing a correlation between vaccines and, you know, uh, m- m- myocardia or whatever it is, there's no, there's no cor-... We can't find a correlation between vaccines and autism, the CDC, the American Pediatric Association, the American Health Association, the Journal of Amer- jamp, now people are like, "Oh, you can't trust those folks," because there's a lack of respect, and I do think the right's been more responsible for it for the left, they, they go after institutions, and so people don't know who to trust and they trust their social media algorithm now, which is, feeds them really incendiary, kind of polarizing content. But back to where I think Harris ultimately is gonna pull it out, I think people are exhausted, Stephen, and I think that Trump represents more chaos and exhaustion right now. Do people... I don't know this, but I'm hoping quite a few swing voters are gonna go, "Do I really wanna go back to that? Do I really..." I mean, it was pretty... People, I don't think people... I wonder if people are gonna remember, I like, wish they had those Apple Reels, just how chaotic and tense it was. I mean, think about Biden,

  14. 1:06:191:10:22

    People Seem To Have Forgotten What It Was Like When Trump Was In Office Last Time

    1. SG

      that I lo- the thing I love most about Biden was he was pretty boring.

    2. SB

      Boring.

    3. SG

      You know?

    4. SB

      I think people have forgotten what it was like, that COVID, the, the Black Lives Matters protests, everything being smashed to pieces, the US burning, um, and then the, like, h- whole COVID chaos. And when I looked at the stats ahead of our conversation today about, that asks people, "Are, is your life better or worse than it was four years ago?" most people think their life was better then, bec- and they-

    5. SG

      Yeah.

    6. SB

      ... because they, you have this road, rose-tinted sort of glasses-

    7. SG

      Yeah.

    8. SB

      ... about the past. It's why that question, I can't remember, was it Reagan or one of the politicians who was the pioneer of that election shifting question, which is, "Do you feel better off now than four years ago?" It works every election cycle 'cause people al- almost always think they were worse off four years, um, they were better off four years ago than they are today. They all, like always think that you could say that in any election cycle and it's persuasive. And you go, "Do you know what? Actually, yeah." Even if you have more money, you're doing, your health is better, your's, your education's better, you'll still look back at the past and go, "Those were the good old days."I think it's just a bias of humans. You roast ten glass, you forget the bad.

    9. SG

      Well, and also for, in America, if you're under the age of 45, you've never experienced inflation.

    10. SB

      (laughs)

    11. SG

      And when you look back and think, "Wow, a hotel room at the Beverly Hills Hotel, you're going to LA, is up... has doubled in the last four years?" And it has.

    12. SB

      Yeah.

    13. SG

      The cereal I buy is up 30 or 40%. Again, you get a raise, you think it's your grit and character. The price of cereal goes up, you blame, you blame the government. But I don't... uh, I mean, I'm hoping Harris wins, and I'm finding reasons why I think she will. It's total confirmation bias. What I also really hope happens is that whoever wins, I hope it's decisive. Because political parties... You know, in the '30s, we had kind of the New Deal from Democrats. '80s, we had the Republican Revolution. People kinda came together and admitted this is where America wants to go. Things... The worst thing about... And you can argue the worst thing, the thing that's ailing America is what's ailing the Middle East. There's never a definitive winner. (laughs) There's never someone... There's never a party that... That kinda... And I don't wanna say the best thing that could happen, 'cause I- I think one party's got it wrong on things like bodily autonomy and peaceful transfer power, but we need a party to kinda come in and win 55 or 60% of the votes so there's no arguing over the direction America wants to go right now. Because if it's really close, there's just gonna be so much... I mean, the amount of money that's being lined up and the number of lawyers lined up to contest the election on either side right now is just crazy.

    14. SB

      Mm-hmm.

    15. SG

      And one of the things I love about the UK, you guys start and finish an election in eight weeks.

    16. SB

      Hmm.

    17. SG

      And it also kinda seems like, whatever this guy's name is, people don't like him but they don't hate him. It's sort of like, "Okay, it's over. Keep calm and move along." In the US, it's, it's gotten so... It's like we're so spoiled by our blessings and our prosperity, uh, the one algorithms have taken us away from each other. Also, and I realize I'm paranoid but it doesn't mean I'm wrong, I think the CCP and Russia cannot beat us kinetically, they cannot beat us economically, so they're weaponizing social media platforms to divide us from one another. And I think they're doing a really good job. And Americans are easier to fool than convince we've been fooled. And I think there are bad actors, foreign actors who weaponize these platforms to, quite frankly, start getting us to hate each other. The easiest way to defeat Native Americans was to get them warring with each other and have them kill 30% of each other, and then come in for a clean-up operation, and I think that's happening in the US right now. If you go on TikTok, there's 52 pro-Hamas videos for every one pro-Israel video. And I'm not suggesting the CCP or the GRU are anti-Semitic, I'm suggesting they see an opportunity to polarize people internally in the US and get us hating each other. No one can defeat us right now. We are, we are undefeatable from a, a military or an economic standpoint right now. The way to defeat us and de-position us strategically, internationally,

  15. 1:10:221:16:31

    Russia And China Are Using Social Media Algorithms Against Us

    1. SG

      is to get us hating each other, and I think they're doing a good job of it.

    2. SB

      Th- That's the most convincing argument I've actually ever heard for why China played a role in TikTok, and why also they don't care about owning it. It's because they set up an algorithm which is so unbelievably brutal. Um, we always... I- from a sp- I come from a social media background where we worked in social media for 10, 15 years now, and the one defining thing about this, the TikTok algorithm is if you post something, regardless of how many followers you have, it'll either get 1,000 views or seven million.

    3. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    4. SB

      It's the on- only algorithm with such extreme variance. And what that tells you is that the algorithm is basically saying, "Okay, take that and show it to everybody. And actually, that's not good, so show it to nobody."

    5. SG

      Yeah.

    6. SB

      And because it's doing that, y- you can imagine the, the amount of sort of division where polarizing content on this side is going to everyone.

    7. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    8. SB

      Nuance goes to no one. Nuance, like unemotional nuance, nuance takes goes to no one. And then polarizing content on the left or the right also goes to everyone. So if I was... Actually, thinking about it, if I was brainstorming in China and I wanted to tear the West apart, what I would do is I, I would introduce an app that has an extreme algorithm either way, and I wouldn't care about owning it. I wouldn't care about... The- they can run it. I'll give them all the, all the shares. Just get it into their society. While over there in China, we control our algorithm.

    9. SG

      Well, we don't... And we don't allow foreign actors anywhere near-

    10. SB

      Yeah.

    11. SG

      Let... I'm gonna list now every American media company in China. Okay, I'm done.

    12. SB

      (laughs)

    13. SG

      They just, there's just no way they're gonna let us over there. And yet we have a neural jack implanted into the wet matter of our youth that's more dominant than CBS, ABC and NBC were in the '60s. So would we allow, would we have allowed the Kremlin to own CBS, NBC and ABC? That's what we're doing right now with TikTok. Kids spend more time on TikTok now under the age of 25 than they spend on all broadcast media, uh, combined. This is also true of Meta. And the primary fuel for that algorithm, what the algorithm tries to suss out... The thing that used to be the ultimate gangster move in marketing used to be sex, sex sells. Show hot people playing volleyball and people think, "Well, if I drink more beer, I too will be hot." Right? "If I have this car, I'm more likely to have a random sexual experience. I would really like to have more random sexual experiences so I'll buy the new Chrysler Cordoba with original Corinthian leather," right? It used to be sex sells. Basically, Meta figured out there's something better than sex, rage. So if you have a long, hour-long conversation with a epidemiologist that says, "Yeah, we rolled out the polio vaccine too quickly in the '50s and '60s and a bunch of people died, but generally speaking, vaccines, uh, are probably... have pre- probably prevented more unnecessary death than anything in..." I mean, a long, thoughtful conversation that's data-driven, them algorithms hate that shit. But if you're RFK Jr. and you're on a podcast, he leans in, he says, "Steven, the best thing you can do when you see someone with a baby is to say to them-"... "Don't get her vaccinated." Like, he- he's this handsome, charming guy, and he looks at you and says, "That's the best thing you can tell a new mother." Oh my God, the algorithms love that, because the people who have been worried about vaccines and have- have- and- and believe that conspiracy love it, and people like me get fucking outraged and shit post him. More comments, algorithm, "Oh my God, more comments, more interaction, more Nissan ads, more shareholder value. So let's take the most incendiary shit and give it way more reach than it would get organically." So it's happening naturally, even among US companies. But then if I wrap it in cute dance videos and I can put my thumb on content that's really incendiary, whether it's a conflict in the Middle East or income inequality or the lack of opportunity... I mean, just a lot of my content around how young people are not doing well has gone viral on TikTok, and I'm kind of playing into the algorithm. "Oh, this guy's saying young people should be angry. We like that." Thumb on the scale. I just think it's so ridiculous that we don't think we're being played. What would we do in the West? If we had an opportunity to dial up anti-Islamic Republic content in a social media platform in Iran, you don't think we'd game that shit? We have a division of the army called PsyOps. That's all they do, is try and spread our media content that's very pro-American and anti- our adversaries across different mediums across the world. The problem is, we're not used to them doing it to us. And it's so genius. Meta involved, um, uh, I finally got... After seven years, I finally got an original scripted series on big tech green-lighted, and it's gonna be on Netflix. And I'm really enjoying putting together certain scenes and scenarios. And a scenario I believe has happened over and over is that Zuckerberg goes in front of Congress and gets pilloried. No concern for young people, skyrocketing teen suicide. They get their TikTok moment. Then he goes into a confidential security hearing and he says, "Guys, do you want me to continue to help you kill terrorists?" Meta is the ultimate espionage vehicle. The Mossad, the CIA, the GRU would kill to have control of Meta. I can tell someone's relationships, their vulnerabilities, where they are, I can GPS locate it. I bet he says, "Do you want me to continue to help you kill terrorists?" And they say, "Yeah," and then they, he's like, "Then back the fuck off." And what do you know? There's never been a law passed regulating social media. I think that is what is happening after these congresspeople get their TikTok moment. We're writing a scene right now where I believe that a lot of the drone strikes against terrorists in Yemen and other places have been aided by social media platforms tracking people down. Your 14-year-old has their phone out and they're on Instagram, and their dad or their uncle at the wedding of bad people doesn't know this kid's on their phone. They've all been told... I mean, everyone is on these platforms. So I think we're doing it, and the CCP would be stupid not to be dialing up content that makes us angry at each other such that we're not focused on whether China invades Taiwan or not. They have a... They'd be stupid not

  16. 1:16:311:20:21

    Does Age Matter In This Election?

    1. SG

      to be doing this.

    2. SB

      Do you think age matters in this election? Trump's age, what's he's gonna be 80-something years old by the time-

    3. SG

      Well, he- he'll be, he- he's, he'll be, if he's elected, he'll be older than when Biden was elected. The difference is he presents as more roba- and we don't like to admit this as Democrats. He presents as more robust than Biden. I mean, remember when Biden made the trash comment and he like, he popped up out of nowhere? I'm like, "Oh, Biden's still around."

    4. SB

      (laughs)

    5. SG

      It felt to me like a video of someone about to go into hospice saying how much they love their great-great-grandchildren, and like-

    6. SB

      He, he stuttered over the- the previous two sentences, then managed to get the words out. And I, I said, "Oh gosh."

    7. SG

      And his voice is weak. He just, he feels like it's past his expiration date. And on the Democratic Party, we're so politically correct, we thought we were being ageist. And if- if Harris loses, I don't think Ha- I don't think it's gonna reflect well on Biden. Biden did not want to drop out. We have this myth that he dropped out. No, he was booted out.

    8. SB

      Yeah.

    9. SG

      Nancy Pelusi walked, Pelosi walked up, Speaker Pelosi, and said, "If you don't drop out..." She saw the down ballot was gonna be terrible with him at the top of the ticket. "Every day for the next 10 days, I'm gonna have more and more people come out against you in your party." He did not want to leave. They haven't spoken since that conversation.

Episode duration: 1:54:47

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