The Diary of a CEO

Bustamante and Jacobsen: A non-kinetic World War III is here

How proxy wars, viral AI fakes, and Iran nuclear leverage could spark catastrophe; they argue a non-kinetic World War III is already quietly underway.

ABAndrew BustamanteguestBRBenjamin RaddguestAJAnnie JacobsenguestSBSteven Bartletthost

Jul 10, 2025·2h 35m·Watch on YouTube ↗

📖 CHAPTERS

1. 1
   0:00 – 8:40

   Opening: Are We Already in World War III?

   The conversation opens with Andrew’s assertion that World War III has effectively begun, though it looks nothing like previous world wars. He emphasizes how nuclear annihilation could be triggered by a single miscalculation or even a viral AI fake, and the host frames the discussion as a response to a pervasive sense of global anxiety.

2. 2
   8:40 – 21:00

   Expert Backgrounds and Nuclear War Experience

   Each guest explains their personal and professional background, anchoring the discussion in lived experience of conflict, intelligence, and nuclear command. Annie outlines her book that walks readers through a nuclear exchange; Andrew describes physically holding a nuclear launch key underground; Benjamin shares his family’s escape from revolutionary Iran.

3. 3
   21:00 – 38:40

   Redefining World War III and Proxy Warfare

   The panel reframes modern conflict as continuous since the early Cold War, but increasingly non‑kinetic. They define proxy warfare and debate whether conflicts like Israel–Iran and the U.S. invasion of Iraq qualify, emphasizing that wealthy states now prefer to weaken adversaries indirectly.

4. 4
   38:40 – 59:20

   Information Warfare, Polarization, and Post‑Truth Societies

   The conversation pivots to the information environment: how social media, fragmentation of news, and deliberate disinformation create a ‘post‑truth’ world. The experts explain how domestic ignorance and polarization become exploitable vulnerabilities, and how diplomacy itself has gone public via social platforms.

5. 5
   59:20 – 1:16:40

   Domestic Politics vs National Security and the Tension Economy

   They examine how U.S. partisan warfare undermines national security, as politicians prioritize domestic point‑scoring over coherent strategy. Trump and Biden’s differing approaches to intelligence are scrutinized, and the role of attention as a kind of power in the modern ‘economy of attention’ is discussed.

6. 6
   1:16:40 – 1:48:20

   Iran–Israel, Proxies, and the Logic of Targeting Iran’s Nuclear Program

   The panel dives deep into Iran: the revolution’s origins, the regime’s ideological pillars, and why diplomacy has hit a wall. They argue over whether recent U.S. strikes on Iran were justified, how Israel and Mossad conduct covert action, and why both deterrence and regime survival drive Iranian nuclear choices.

7. 7
   1:48:20 – 2:08:20

   Great‑Power Competition, Unipolarity vs Multipolarity, and Economic Warfare

   Zooming out from the Middle East, they discuss U.S. hegemony, the instability of a unipolar world, and how economics, supply chains, and rare earths now drive strategic conflict. China’s leverage over critical minerals and shipping routes is framed as a likely catalyst for non‑kinetic escalation.

8. 8
   2:08:20 – 2:31:40

   Russia–Ukraine, China–Taiwan, and the Expanding Conflict Map

   The host enumerates multiple simultaneous crises—Russia–Ukraine, Israel–Gaza–Iran, China–Taiwan—and worries about normalization of invading sovereign states. The experts describe how China can pressure Taiwan without a full amphibious assault and why Western fatigue and distraction might leave Taiwan effectively alone.

9. 9
   2:31:40 – 3:23:20

   Nuclear Command, Deterrence, and the Rising Risk Landscape

   This core segment dissects nuclear command‑and‑control systems, deterrence logic, and the difference between strategic ICBMs, tactical nukes, and dirty bombs. Historical near‑misses and Russia’s recent missile use are analyzed to show how little margin for error exists when leaders have minutes to decide on launch responses.

10. 10
    3:23:20 – 3:38:20

    What Nuclear War Would Actually Look Like

    The discussion moves from systems to consequences: nuclear winter, agricultural collapse, and human survival. They debate whether humanity would be extinguished or merely shattered into small, desperate pockets—and whether surviving the aftermath is even desirable compared to instant death.

11. 11
    3:38:20 – 4:01:40

    AI Weapons, Autonomous Drones, and Nuclear Terrorism Scenarios

    Benjamin introduces a recovered Iranian Shahed drone in Ukraine containing NVIDIA hardware and autonomous capabilities, illustrating how AI, stolen Western tech, and Eastern collaboration intersect. Andrew walks through nightmare scenarios of tactical nukes on drones or smuggled devices and ambiguous attribution that could paralyze deterrence.

12. 12
    4:01:40 – 4:30:00

    Safe Havens, Billionaire Bunkers, and the Ethics of Escape

    The group briefly entertains the idea of geographic safety, billionaire bunkers, and New Zealand as a nuclear refuge. This segues into diplomacy and moral responsibility: whether to work for de‑escalation or to focus on personal exit plans.

13. 13
    4:30:00 – 4:50:00

    Deepfakes, Scam Ads, and Teaching People to Spot Manipulation

    The host shares personal experiences with deepfake ads using his likeness to scam fans, including a single mother who lost £3,000. Benjamin describes his experimental curriculum where students actually fabricate manipulative content so they can recognize the methods being used against them.

14. 14
    4:50:00

    Personal Responses: From Diplomacy and Teaching to Leaving America

    In closing, each guest describes what they personally are doing about the risks they’ve outlined. Annie leans into diplomacy and nature, Benjamin into teaching curiosity and civics, while Andrew reveals concrete plans to emigrate and lower his public profile for his family’s safety.