Joe Rogan Experience #1888 - Michael Shermer

Shermer frames conspiracies using hits, misses, false positives, and false negatives: it’s rational to be somewhat paranoid because missing a real conspiracy (like Tuskegee or MKUltra) can be very costly, but we should still demand converging evidence before accepting any specific theory.

Shermer argues that grand plots requiring many coordinated actors (e.g., 9/11 as an inside job or a massive JFK cover-up involving multiple agencies) become increasingly implausible because of human incompetence, leaks, and lack of solid documentary trails.

Examples like MKUltra, Operation Northwoods, COINTELPRO, Paperclip, and Tuskegee show that US agencies have committed serious covert abuses; this history rationally heightens public distrust, especially when records (like JFK files) are still withheld.

Both in crimes and disasters (JFK, 9/11, satanic panics, recovered memories), witnesses regularly misperceive and misremember under stress, and investigators can easily ‘lead’ narratives; anomalies and colorful details are common in large events and do not, by themselves, confirm conspiracies.

On UAPs, Shermer accepts credible military witnesses and odd sensor data but insists that blurry videos and anecdotes aren’t enough to jump to aliens or secret super-tech; he wants physical artifacts or clearly verifiable, high-quality data before revising his priors.