Joe Rogan Experience #1888 - Michael Shermer

1. 0:00 – 15:00

   (drumming music plays) Joe Rogan podcast,…

   1. JRJoe Rogan0:00

      (drumming music plays) Joe Rogan podcast, check it out.

   2. MSMichael Shermer0:04

      The Joe Rogan Experience.

   3. JRJoe Rogan0:06

      Train by day, Joe Rogan podcast by night. All day. (rock music plays)

   4. MSMichael Shermer0:13

      (laughs)

   5. JRJoe Rogan0:13

      ... Spears. Michael Shure.

   6. MSMichael Shermer0:15

      Icon-bearing signed gifts for you, sir.

   7. JRJoe Rogan0:17

      Thank you very much.

   8. MSMichael Shermer0:17

      (laughs) I hope that's all right.

   9. JRJoe Rogan0:19

      Why the Rational Believe the Irrational.

   10. MSMichael Shermer0:22

       Right.

   11. JRJoe Rogan0:23

       Why is that?

   12. MSMichael Shermer0:24

       (laughs)

   13. JRJoe Rogan0:24

       Is it simple? It wouldn't be this big of a book-

   14. MSMichael Shermer0:27

       N- no.

   15. JRJoe Rogan0:27

       ... if it was simple.

   16. MSMichael Shermer0:28

       Yeah, it's not that simple, but, uh ... Well, first of all, my argument is that it's not irrational to believe conspiracy theories, because enough of them are true that i- it pays to err on the side of assuming more of them are true than actually are than missing real conspiracy theories, and then that's a, a costlier err- error to make.

   17. JRJoe Rogan0:49

       That's a rational perspective.

   18. MSMichael Shermer0:51

       Yeah.

   19. JRJoe Rogan0:51

       Uh, the, the term conspiracy theory got thrown about ... There was the first, the first introduction of it into the zeitgeist was during the Kennedy assassination, correct?

   20. MSMichael Shermer1:00

       Yeah. Well, uh, around that time, right? It, it, uh ... Before that, before World War II really, conspiracy theories were kind of common knowledge. Everybody knew that things were going on behind, uh, closed doors and it was just ki- commonly known and we just kind of tried to figure it out. It didn't become really fringey until right after the JFK thing that it, it, it kinda got a, as a meme that you're crazy to think these conspiracy theories are true. It became pathologized.

   21. JRJoe Rogan1:27

       Yeah.

   22. MSMichael Shermer1:28

       You know, Richard Hofstadter's, you know, the Paranoid Style in American Politics kind of m- put that on the map as conspiracy theories are something delusional. You ... It's a, it's a pathology in your brain. Whereas, before that, it wasn't. It was just ... I mean, even the Declaration of Independence, it's a conspiracy theory. It's saying, "Look, the British are doing this whole train of abuses and usurpations, and here's what we think they're up to, and here's what we think they wanna do, and we're against that." That's printed right there in the Declaration.

   23. JRJoe Rogan1:54

       Yeah.

   24. MSMichael Shermer1:54

       So it's not fringey, right? It was, it was kind of commonly known that these things happened.

   25. JRJoe Rogan1:58

       The term as a pejorative, though, was ... It was introduced into, like, sort of the American m- m- culture around the Kennedy assassination.

   26. MSMichael Shermer2:08

       Yeah. Yeah, that's an interesting story, because, um, I'm, I'm convinced Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone. I'm not a-

   27. JRJoe Rogan2:14

       Really?

   28. MSMichael Shermer2:14

       Yes, I am. Yeah.

   29. JRJoe Rogan2:15

       What makes you convinced of that?

   30. MSMichael Shermer2:16

       (laughs) Uh, well, I have a whole chapter on it, and we can get into that in a second. But, uh, the, the, the twist about it where it seems like there was something up was that John ... President Johnson was worried that if it looks like there's a conspiracy afoot with the Cubans or the Russians, that that could lead to a nuclear exchange, so we don't want the American people to think that this is some kind of vast conspiracy of the, of the Russians so we can avoid war.
2. 15:00 – 30:00

   Right. …

   1. JRJoe Rogan15:00

      adding a bunch of stuff to what they've experienced in just the chaos of the incident. "I, I've-"

   2. MSMichael Shermer15:07

      Right.

   3. JRJoe Rogan15:08

      "... heard explosions. I saw this."

   4. MSMichael Shermer15:09

      Hey, right?

   5. JRJoe Rogan15:09

      "I saw that." And you know that p- in times like that, of great distress, people and eyewitness testimonies are some of the most unreliable, because people are so blown away by the extreme moment that they can't-

   6. MSMichael Shermer15:23

      Right.

   7. JRJoe Rogan15:23

      ... really recall things correctly.

   8. MSMichael Shermer15:25

      Okay. Let's just do a counter, another counterfactual. Like, what would be true if this really was a conspiracy? Well, there should be some documentation somewhere.

   9. JRJoe Rogan15:33

      There is, and that's why they won't release it.

   10. MSMichael Shermer15:35

       Yeah. (laughs) Well, okay. So this is the problem. Release it, damn it. Right?

   11. JRJoe Rogan15:38

       Yeah. Well, why do you think ... But what possible reason-

   12. MSMichael Shermer15:42

       I thought Trump was-

   13. JRJoe Rogan15:43

       ... in, in good-

   14. MSMichael Shermer15:43

       I thought Trump was gonna release it.

   15. JRJoe Rogan15:44

       I don't think-

   16. MSMichael Shermer15:44

       I was quite surprised.

   17. JRJoe Rogan15:45

       I don't think they wanna let anybody release that stuff.

   18. MSMichael Shermer15:47

       If, if it's anyth- if I had to guess, it would be something like what the CIA was up to even more than what we know about, you know, over- overthrowing, rigging elections in South American-

   19. JRJoe Rogan15:56

       Mm-hmm.

   20. MSMichael Shermer15:56

       ... countries, assassinating communist dictators.

   21. JRJoe Rogan15:59

       Real conspiracies.

   22. MSMichael Shermer16:00

       These are real conspiracies.

   23. JRJoe Rogan16:01

       Yeah.

   24. MSMichael Shermer16:01

       These things happened. We found out about this in the '90s.

   25. JRJoe Rogan16:03

       So why are you so convinced-

   26. MSMichael Shermer16:05

       And-

   27. JRJoe Rogan16:05

       ... that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone?

   28. MSMichael Shermer16:06

       Okay. So let's just pull back for a second.

   29. JRJoe Rogan16:08

       Okay.

   30. MSMichael Shermer16:08

       All right? Uh, uh, I'm not God. You're not, either. I'm not omniscient. We don't know for sure what happened. Nobody does.
3. 30:00 – 45:00

   Y- yeah, but through…

   1. JRJoe Rogan30:00

      find planets all the time.

   2. MSMichael Shermer30:02

      Y- yeah, but through telescopes.

   3. JRJoe Rogan30:04

      We are aw-

   4. MSMichael Shermer30:04

      Not, not visiting.

   5. JRJoe Rogan30:04

      Right, telescopes and satellites-

   6. MSMichael Shermer30:06

      Right.

   7. JRJoe Rogan30:07

      ... and all sorts of, you know, things that we send into space. But we find planets all the time that are in the Goldilocks zone.

   8. MSMichael Shermer30:14

      Uh, I think.

   9. JRJoe Rogan30:14

      And we have a very relatively unsophisticated in terms of like what we'd expect from something that's capable of intergalactic travel, rel- relatively simple technology in comparison to what we would think if you-... took what we have today and you in- increased our capabilities, you know, a thousand years from now. Uh, you could imagine that-

   10. MSMichael Shermer30:36

       Yes.

   11. JRJoe Rogan30:36

       ... it would be quite easy for someone to at least send a drone from another planet to visit Earth and observe.

   12. MSMichael Shermer30:42

       This is the Fermi paradox-

   13. JRJoe Rogan30:43

       Yes.

   14. MSMichael Shermer30:44

       ... uh, that you know of. And, uh, where are they? Well, of course, m- most scientists like him d- don't think that they're here. So I separate two questions-

   15. JRJoe Rogan30:51

       Most scientists?

   16. MSMichael Shermer30:51

       Most scientists.

   17. JRJoe Rogan30:52

       Michio Kaku thinks they're here.

   18. MSMichael Shermer30:54

       Uh, he's been a little fuzzy about that. He's not totally committed to that. He- he- he-

   19. JRJoe Rogan30:58

       He's totally committed.

   20. MSMichael Shermer30:59

       ... you think so?

   21. JRJoe Rogan31:00

       He was here. He was here, and he talked about it on the podcast. He said for the longest time, he was a skeptic.

   22. MSMichael Shermer31:05

       Oh, yeah. That's right. Okay, he has kinda come down on that side a little bit.

   23. JRJoe Rogan31:08

       But why would you be firm on that? When you think about the fact that there's hundreds of billions-

   24. MSMichael Shermer31:13

       Okay, hang on, hang on.

   25. JRJoe Rogan31:13

       ... of galaxies in the known universe.

   26. MSMichael Shermer31:15

       Yes, yes, yes. Let's separate two questions.

   27. JRJoe Rogan31:17

       Okay.

   28. MSMichael Shermer31:17

       Are they, are they out there? Have they come here? Are they out there? Almost certainly.

   29. JRJoe Rogan31:21

       Right.

   30. MSMichael Shermer31:21

       I would say, you know, 99.9% they're out there, yeah.
4. 45:00 – 1:00:00

   Yep, it's coming. (laughs)…

   1. JRJoe Rogan45:00

   2. MSMichael Shermer45:00

      Yep, it's coming. (laughs)

   3. JRJoe Rogan45:01

      Yeah.

   4. MSMichael Shermer45:02

      It's, it's, assuming we live o- our lives long enough. So if-

   5. JRJoe Rogan45:04

      So if you think of a lifeform that exists out there, you know, millions of light years away, that has achieved this sort of advanced technology, do you think that they would want to be visiting us and be interested in us with our nuclear power and a- all of our chaos and our territorial behavior, and the fact that we have these thermonuclear weapons-

   6. MSMichael Shermer45:27

      Yes.

   7. JRJoe Rogan45:27

      ... we're pointing at them each other, and I think-

   8. MSMichael Shermer45:29

      I-

   9. JRJoe Rogan45:29

      ... they'd be pretty interested.

   10. MSMichael Shermer45:30

       Or, i- the plot of many of these, like, The Day the Earth Stood Still, warning us-

   11. JRJoe Rogan45:34

       Yeah.

   12. MSMichael Shermer45:34

       ... "Let's stop doing this, or else." (laughs)

   13. JRJoe Rogan45:37

       Or intervening.

   14. MSMichael Shermer45:38

       Yeah, yeah.

   15. JRJoe Rogan45:38

       You know, there's been discussions about them hovering over nuclear facilities.

   16. MSMichael Shermer45:41

       Yes, I know about that, um, but that may be a selection bias of where the cameras are located or where the, you know, monitoring of that... Of course we have more monitoring around our nuclear sites.

   17. JRJoe Rogan45:51

       Sure.

   18. MSMichael Shermer45:52

       Missile sites. So, it could, that could just be an artifact of measurement. But nevertheless, the, your, your larger point, yes, maybe. (laughs)

   19. JRJoe Rogan45:58

       Yes, maybe.

   20. MSMichael Shermer45:59

       Yes, maybe. This is not all-

   21. JRJoe Rogan46:00

       Gotta be skeptical.

   22. MSMichael Shermer46:01

       Well, uh, uh, not, not in principle just because you're a cynic or, you know, a nihilist. Not that, not, not for that reason. The question is, is, you know, what should we believe, you know, justified true belief? What should I believe as true? Some things are true, some things are not. I don't, I want to believe the correct things. How do I know, right?

   23. JRJoe Rogan46:20

       Mm-hmm.

   24. MSMichael Shermer46:20

       So this is what, you know, s- uh, science has kind of developed, science and rationality over the centuries. Okay, so we know we're biased, we know we have to be careful about the confirmation bias and the hindsight bias and so on, so we have to set up some kind of system where it's not just me claiming it. You, you, you have, you can look at it too, you could run the experiment.

   25. JRJoe Rogan46:37

       Mm-hmm.

   26. MSMichael Shermer46:37

       Here's how I did it. You do it. Right? And when that's not done, we, we have all kinds of problems, like the replication crisis in psychology and, and medical science over the last decade or so. You know, the, some significant two-digit percentage of these experiments can't be replicated even though they went through peer-reviewed, um, professional journals and they were done by professional scientists at real universities and so on. And, uh, so this is a pro- it's a hard, it's hard to know what to believe, right?

   27. JRJoe Rogan47:03

       But there's also a problem of basing science on falsified studies, like the Alzheimer's issue that they're dealing with now.

   28. MSMichael Shermer47:09

       Mm-hmm.

   29. JRJoe Rogan47:10

       You know, the whole amyloid plaque thing, where they found out that a lot of... Like, what is the... I don't want to butcher this, 'cause obviously I'm not a scientist, but this, there's a series of Alzheimer's drugs that were based on research that was falsified.

   30. MSMichael Shermer47:26

       Mm-hmm.
5. 1:00:00 – 1:09:45

   Mm-hmm. …

   1. MSMichael Shermer1:00:00

      do. Before the OJ trial, this was the longest, most expensive trial in California history, that McMartin Preschool Case, but it launched this kind of satanic panic around America. There's one of these cults in every city.

   2. JRJoe Rogan1:00:09

      Mm-hmm.

   3. MSMichael Shermer1:00:09

      And finally the FBI got involved and said, "All right, we better look into this." And they, you know, found nothing or... Okay, y- you can always find some weirdo who's a Satanist, right?

   4. JRJoe Rogan1:00:18

      Right.

   5. MSMichael Shermer1:00:18

      And maybe they do some weird things with a cat or something.

   6. JRJoe Rogan1:00:21

      Mm-hmm.

   7. MSMichael Shermer1:00:21

      Or a cat gets mutilated by a dog and then you got the Satanist, he's, uh, over there, and then the mutilated cat was found over there. There must be-

   8. JRJoe Rogan1:00:28

      Mm-hmm.

   9. MSMichael Shermer1:00:28

      ... some connection and before you know it, you get this spiraling moral panic.

   10. JRJoe Rogan1:00:32

       Right.

   11. MSMichael Shermer1:00:33

       And it was similar to the recovered memory movement in the '90s, that, uh, when we started in '92, we started covering this 'cause it, it, it was the same kind of thing where these were adult, mostly women, going into therapy for various issues; sleep problems, depression, weight issues, whatever. And the therapists who, who had bought in all this Freudian stuff that you suppress, you, you suppress your memories, you... And we, we can get them out, as if memory is like a video recording and you can watch it on the little, uh-

   12. JRJoe Rogan1:01:02

       Right.

   13. MSMichael Shermer1:01:02

       ... Cartesian theater of your mind as if there's little homunculus in there looking at the screen. Okay, play it back for me what your father did. Now, they don't start off like that. They just go, "Okay, so what are your issues?" And-... client says what the issues are. "Well, you know, um, some people that have those symptoms were molested when they were children." "Well, no, that, that didn't happen to me." "Well, I, I know you don't think it happened to you, but, in fact, we know about repressed memories, that you repress the memory of that trauma because it's so traumatic." "Really?" "Yeah." "How do I know?" "Well, okay, have you ever had a dream or ever had fleeting thoughts about this, this, and this?" "Yeah, I think I might have." You know? So six months later, now the person thinks, "I think this actually happened to me."

   14. JRJoe Rogan1:01:40

       Right.

   15. MSMichael Shermer1:01:40

       And then there's this big moment of confrontation with the father, grandfather, uncle, whoever it is and, you know, of course, they're just in a state of shock. Like, this, but this is horrible. And then it got worse where they were actually, uh, tried, put on trial for-

   16. JRJoe Rogan1:01:53

       Yes.

   17. MSMichael Shermer1:01:53

       ... and, and some of these guys were convicted based on nothing other than one of these recovered memories.

   18. JRJoe Rogan1:01:58

       Yeah, that's an, that's a real issue with hypnotic regression, right, that you can introduce thoughts into-

   19. MSMichael Shermer1:02:02

       Right.

   20. JRJoe Rogan1:02:02

       ... people's minds. You know, that was an i- that was an issue with John Mack's work.

   21. MSMichael Shermer1:02:07

       Yes.

   22. JRJoe Rogan1:02:07

       You're-

   23. MSMichael Shermer1:02:07

       Yes.

   24. JRJoe Rogan1:02:07

       ... aware of John Mack?

   25. MSMichael Shermer1:02:08

       Oh, yeah.

   26. JRJoe Rogan1:02:09

       John Mack, who was a psychologist out of Harvard. He wrote a book called, it was called Abduction, I believe it was.

   27. MSMichael Shermer1:02:15

       Abducted, yeah.

   28. JRJoe Rogan1:02:15

       Abducted, and it was all about-

   29. MSMichael Shermer1:02:17

       The abduction thing.

   30. JRJoe Rogan1:02:17

       ... UFO abductees.

Episode duration: 2:49:12