EVERY SPOKEN WORD
130 min read · 25,868 words- 0:00 – 0:02
Intro
- JRJoe Rogan
[upbeat music]
- 0:02 – 4:34
Six years later: AI accelerates from side topic to civilization-scale force
- JRJoe Rogan
Joe Rogan Podcast, check it out. The Joe Rogan Experience. Train by day, Joe Rogan Podcast by night. All day. [upbeat music] It's great to see you again.
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh, yeah. Good to see you.
- JRJoe Rogan
So, um, since the last time we talked-
- NBNick Bostrom
[clears throat]
- JRJoe Rogan
... we, we spent a lot of time where you were trying to explain to me simulation theory, and why the probability of simulation theory is, uh, more likely than it not being a simulation.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, yeah, it was what? Five years ago or something?
- JRJoe Rogan
I think it was six.
- NBNick Bostrom
Six, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Five or six. Somewhere along those lines.
- NBNick Bostrom
Some- somewhere along... I mean, a lot of things-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... happened in the world since then.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes, yes. A lot of things. I mean, um, for example, back then I think we... Did we even talk about AI?
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh, it probably came up a bit, but it feels like a different era, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Not... It wasn't, it wasn't this thing looming over civilization, which is really kind of fascinating when you think about the fact that it's only been six years, and in six years, like what a, a massive jump in-
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh-huh
- JRJoe Rogan
... some new technology in our life. Like, sort of like the internet, where it like crept up on us. We just a- accepted that it's a thing, but that the, this, this thing has g- gotten, uh, massively entangled in every aspect of society, and every aspect of people's lives in a very short period of time.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, I mean, things are... Like, so much is happening now that it's kind of a full-time job just to monitor the situation.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
And w- well, you're... y- one of the things that you're talking about is the positive aspects of it, right? You're talking about, like, that this is probably going to be a net good for humanity-
- NBNick Bostrom
Hmm
- JRJoe Rogan
... for all this to happen.
- NBNick Bostrom
Hopefully. Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Hopefully
- NBNick Bostrom
... I mean, I think I, I take both, uh, cases seriously, the, the sort of the risk side and, and the big unlock, uh, if we get things right. Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
I feel like w- we have the potential, like we're on a white water raft. We have the potential to get to our destination, but we also have the potential to flip over and try to figure out how to get to shore in freezing cold water-
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, absolutely
- JRJoe Rogan
... and sort of rebuild.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Uh, that seems about right. Yeah.
- 4:34 – 6:21
Beyond job loss: what happens when machines can do almost everything?
- NBNick Bostrom
... you know, travel. All kinds of things. And like a tsunami of wealth just kind of flows through and lifts all boats. Um, and then the idea of human work becomes an anachronism, and, uh, where, where you have machines that can do everything that we can do physically and mentally, and do it much better and cheaper. Um, and so I think in those scenarios where this really works, um, it, the transformation is a lot deeper. I mean, so that kind of layers to the onion. So like the most superficial level is, well, they automate your job, so what are people gonna, uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
What are they gonna do for purpose?
- NBNick Bostrom
How are they gonna work? Yeah, well-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... well, that, that comes a little bit deeper. First, like the, the most superficial level is people just wonder where will I get a job if the robot-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... replaces me. And then the superficial level of that conversation, I think, is, well, you need to retrain workers so they can work in other fields, and maybe there needs to be, I don't know, employment insurance whilst they are being retrained or something like that. Um, but, but once you think through where this ultimately leads, it's... You think, like it's not just a few jobs, I think, but it's really everything that, that humans can do to, um, a good approximation. Um, w- with maybe the exception being where, like the consumer has a direct preference that the particular product or service be done by a human, like-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm
- NBNick Bostrom
... priest, prostitute, and politician.
- JRJoe Rogan
[laughs]
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, and so those-
- JRJoe Rogan
The three Ps. [laughs]
- NBNick Bostrom
Those might survive. Uh-
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, politician, hopefully not. Hopefully AI can handle that all without any corruption.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, but somebody's gotta take credit for it.
- JRJoe Rogan
This is true. And code it. Yeah. It's, um-
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, and so then, then you get to these, uh, like more, uh, profound questions, I think, about meaning and purpose and like what does a human life look like-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... at technological maturity, uh-
- 6:21 – 10:30
Virtual reality temptation: the phone as a weak preview of the Matrix
- JRJoe Rogan
Right. Uh, also, what is experience? Is ex- does experience have to be, um, measurable? Like w- can- do you have to touch it? Do you have to measure it and weigh it? Or is a virtual experience still experience? Like, if you have a very full and enjoyable and fulfilling virtual life, is that enough? You know what I mean?
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, do, do you have to do everything in the material world, or can you find happiness [laughs] in a virtual wor- world that doesn't currently exist, but we could clearly see the technology if it expands, it's going to... There's going to be the possibility of experiencing a Matrix-type reality.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. I, I, I think I see where you're going with this.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh, but, uh, yeah, and I mean, I think, like, different strokes for different folks. If you imagine, um, a world where presumably these virtual worlds will be very rich-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm
- NBNick Bostrom
... uh, and deep and fascinating, but some people might just like the idea of, you know, climbing the real Mount Everest rather than, you know, being in a-
- JRJoe Rogan
Most certainly, but however, there, there could come a time where people are locked out of regular reality. Like, this is worst-case scenario with AI, is that you, you, you have your needs taken care of, but there is no purpose. There's nothing to do. There's nothing to do because AI is taking care of all aspects-
- NBNick Bostrom
Right
- JRJoe Rogan
... of society.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Other than recreation, there's nothing to do, and then this one recreation comes along that's not reality, but it's way more fulfilling and exciting than any other aspect of reality. And you know, an example of that would just be, uh, in a very minor way, your phone provides you with that sort of an escape, and it's not even that thrilling, and yet it's massively addictive. The, your phone-
- NBNick Bostrom
Right. Yeah
- JRJoe Rogan
... people are on their phones six hours a day.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
If you, if we come up with a virtual reality that's way more exciting than regular reality, everyone's gonna hop on in.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. I mean, I think to, to some extent, this, uh, will maybe be the case whether you go the virtual path or the physical path. I mean, you could imagine a future where there are, like, re- resorts and people are sort of lying in beach chairs-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... sipping drinks all day long, and like, that's also a kind of checking out, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, well, that... Yeah. That's not fulfilling. You know, the, what, the thing about a virtual reality is you don't have to even live within our physics. I mean, you can fly. You can do anything.
- NBNick Bostrom
It's a larger space of possibilities.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's complete-
- NBNick Bostrom
But either way, it could be, like, a passive existence in physical reality, where you're, like, lounging at the beach, or-
- JRJoe Rogan
Or it could be like a video game
- NBNick Bostrom
... climbing mountains, or in, in video games. Like, it could have, like-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... a really intense, every s- straining every fiber to try to succeed in this virtual environment, or, like, one where you're just kind of floating on some cloud in a drug-like state.
- JRJoe Rogan
But I don't think people are gonna be interested in that 'cause just the way the human mind works. Like, what kind of video games are people attracted to? It's 'cause a video game is essentially approxima- it, it, it's an approximation of that. You're just watching it on a screen, but you're sort of forgetting the fact that you're watching it on a screen, and you're just concentrating on this 3D reality that you're running through with a machine gun or whatever you're doing, right? That's what people are interested in. They're not interested in these games where you just, like, float over the earth and, like, fly and, and, and just l- eat bananas. No, they're, they're interested in thrilling things.
- NBNick Bostrom
Oh.
- 10:30 – 11:57
Technological maturity includes self-modification: redesigning desires and rewards
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. Well, I mean, I, I think there are, like, some, some personality differences in what path you would take there, but either way, I think a lot of the choices that people would make currently, uh, uh, depend on what they are sort of designed to respond to by feeling good about it. So, like, if you enjoy-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... one thing, you choose that. If you enjoy another, that. In this condition of technological maturity, if we imagine sort of a future civilization that has developed all possible technologies to their maximum-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... um, then amongst the, uh, affordances, amongst the things they could do is, like, they wouldn't just have control over the external environment, um, things around them, but, but also their own biology and brains. So if you were one of these people, and like maybe right now the only way you get enjoyment is by, you know, getting, like, crazy drunk or doing sort of things you don't really approve of maybe, but that's, that's actually what sort of, um, uh, lights your fire. Like, you could imagine redesigning yourself to take the same kind of pleasure, but in some kind of contemplating the beauty of the universe or, like, appreciating the goodness, uh, in the heart of others or, like, some, some more sort of noble aspiration. Um, like solving abstract mathematics rather than, you know, playing first-person shooters. You would have a choice, like-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm
- NBNick Bostrom
... whether you would get your, your thrills from, from one kind of activity or the other.
- 11:57 – 21:13
Do we need struggle to value goodness? Work, dignity, and ‘slavery light’
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, which brings us to the question, like, what does it mean to be human? Like, for people finding beauty and joy in, i- you know, interesting and fascinating things and b- you know, how to be a better person and all, all, all the different aspects of- ... human life that we think about when we think about people, when we think about noble aspects of humanity. But doesn't that have to exist in conjunction with the worst aspects of society for us to appreciate it? I mean, it seems like this is a part of the human condition, is that we have to have crime so that we can appreciate peace. We have to have war so we could appreciate peace. We have to have hate so we could appreciate love. And it, we're never without one or the other. They're always both together in constant conflict, and we're always nobly hoping that the good wins out over the bad. And this is part of the struggle of being a human being. And if we just like completely eliminate that struggle, we're gonna have to find some... W- we're gonna have, we're, we're gonna have to be a different thing, 'cause what we are is this very strange territorial primate, and who's endlessly curious. And this territorial primate is m- moving in a certain direction, and that direction seems to be a better society. It seems to be over time, if you look at statistics from thousands of years ago to today, there's less violence, there's better medicine, there's better education. It's moving in a better and better and better direction. But it's in a struggle. That's part of why it moves. But if all of a sudden there's no struggle and everyone is this wonderful enlightened being, like what are we? 'Cause we're gonna be a different thing than what-
- NBNick Bostrom
Mm-hmm
- JRJoe Rogan
... we are right now. And if you love music, and if you love art, and if you love m- you know, novels and all these different things that come out of the human condition, well, what, what they, those things come out of struggle. Those things come out of confusion and pain and heartbreak and, and love and joy and all that stuff all piled up together. Without that, like what are we? And so if we are moving in this direction technologically and we're not moving as fast biologically, do we merge? Because that seems-
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. Uh
- JRJoe Rogan
... to be what I think. I think that if this thing goes the way it continues to go, the bottleneck is gonna be human biology.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. Yeah. There, there is a kind of paradox, uh, embedded in, in our efforts to make progress. So like there are all these kind of scientists and people working to develop better technologies, and throughout the economy, you know, you're in some company, maybe you try to figure out how to make some process a little bit more efficient so you can serve customers better. And all of this is designed to solve problems, right? To... Like if, if you sort of extrapolate that to its logical endpoint, right? You would imagine we would have perfect technology that can do everything, solve all the problems, like presumably with AI and automation.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, but then you end up in this condition where there is kind of nothing left for us to do, you might think. And so although it looks like we have these strong reasons to push forward in this direction, if you actually look at the endpoint if we succeeded, to many people it will look kind of unpalatable and like this kind of future where, you know, all the problems are solved. And, um, nevertheless, that, that does seem to be, you know, the direction that we are headed in. Probably the direction that we should be headed in. Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. Wouldn't that be a better goal if there was zero murder-
- NBNick Bostrom
Zero murder
- JRJoe Rogan
... zero violence-
- NBNick Bostrom
Zero war
- JRJoe Rogan
... zero crime-
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah
- JRJoe Rogan
... zero lying-
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh-huh
- JRJoe Rogan
... zero corruption.
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh-huh, uh-huh, uh-huh.
- JRJoe Rogan
And human beings all worked in coordination with each other-
- NBNick Bostrom
Right
- JRJoe Rogan
... just like in a, a se- a sense of unique syncing and harmony.
- NBNick Bostrom
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
That would be way better.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. Um, I, I think so-
- JRJoe Rogan
But we're-
- NBNick Bostrom
... but, but it does... Like if you actually stare at that situation, it does have these slightly unpalatable-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, because for us
- NBNick Bostrom
... uh, quality. Because you might think it looks kind of bland then, right? If it's-
- JRJoe Rogan
Not necessarily, though. It's just, it looks bland if you think about what we're experiencing now, like all the, the excitement and the weirdness of uncertainty and of not knowing, y- you know, and, and also the negative aspects of our life in conjunction with the positive aspects of our life. So we contrast the two of them, and you really appreciate good people after you're around a bunch of fucking assholes. You know, if... That doesn't, but it doesn't have to be that way. This is just what we-
- NBNick Bostrom
Right
- 21:13 – 23:55
Education for a leisure society: curiosity, friendship, arts, and wellbeing
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. So you, you could about it, for example, the education system in, in this world where we no longer need to work. Like-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... presumably it would need to be redesigned from, from, from, from scratch basically because right now it's a kind of machine, right? So you take children coming in kind of on a conveyor belt-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... and then some processing is done. Like, sit at your desk, here is this assignment, here is your grade, and then they come out with a quality label attached.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Right? And then they are meant to be productive workers that you could put in an office and they will... Um, so, so this, it kind of is an unfortunate, uh, fact about the current condition that, I mean, the world needs a lot of these office workers that can do all these tasks in the economy. So like it's, we have to have some-
- JRJoe Rogan
Until it doesn't.
- NBNick Bostrom
Until it doesn't, and at that point it would be absurd to keep doing this, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Then you could imagine changing education so that it would be, uh, much more about like how, how can you learn to, uh, live well a life of leisure? Like you imagine-
- JRJoe Rogan
You're right. Right. Stay stimulated
- NBNick Bostrom
... uh, like cultivating like, you know, the art of conversation, appreciation for art and music-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... hobbies, physical wellness, like nature. Um, the ability to set your own goals and take your own initiatives to-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm
- NBNick Bostrom
... um, you know, to develop true friendships with people. Like the- these are things that are not taught in school, but you could imagine that being the curriculum, like spirituality, like all kinds of-
- JRJoe Rogan
Sure
- NBNick Bostrom
... things that would then equip people to sort of use their freedom, their wealth, uh, their free time for, uh, you know, some kind of, you know, actually, um, meaningful and beautiful activities.
- JRJoe Rogan
For su- for, for sure preemptively we should be kind of teaching people like that now. Like if young people are coming up now, the world that they're... If you're in first grade right now, 12 years from now when you're graduating from high school, like the world is a totally different place. And this idea that being a productive worker who can sit still for eight hours a day is, that's the, the best way we should teach kids, that seems crazy if we're really like seeing the world that you're describing and that most people seem to think is oncoming.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, yeah. And I, I guess the, the timeline is a little bit uncertain. So you, you don't wanna end up-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... in a situation, right? Where you, you sort of now you find yourself, you're 20 years old, it's time to go out in the world. You have no skills. The AI revolution hasn't yet quite happened. It's kind of 50 years off.
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, isn't that a liberal arts degree anyway?
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. [laughs] And, and so how is that go-
- JRJoe Rogan
There's a lot of silly degrees-
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah
- JRJoe Rogan
... that people get right now that are useless anyway, and they spend a, a tremendous amount of time working on Getting it, and then when they get out, there's no jobs for that degree.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. So, so they, they were a little bit too early maybe in hoping on this maybe.
- JRJoe Rogan
Maybe.
- 23:55 – 28:16
Purpose without paychecks: status games, hobbies, and learning as play
- JRJoe Rogan
Or, you know, there's also traps. There, there's, there's things that you can get really excited about and do. Like if you wanna play professional bowling, you wanna bowl professionally, like well, the amount of money you're gonna make is very limited, 'cause the best bowler in the world... Like what does the best professional bowler in the world make? Let's guess. I say-
- NBNick Bostrom
That's a... I didn't even know there were professional bowlers
- JRJoe Rogan
... $100,000.
- NBNick Bostrom
Is that the kind of professional bowlers?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes, there are professional bowlers.
- NBNick Bostrom
Professional, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
We used to knew, know a guy, Ari's friends with a guy, uh, Tommy. God, I can't remember his last name. Do you remember his last name, Jamie? He was a professional bowler, but he used to come to the comedy store and hang out, really nice guy.
- NBNick Bostrom
Mm.
- JRJoe Rogan
And just loved comedy. And like Simon-
- NBNick Bostrom
But I imagine like maybe the very best one makes a pretty decent living, and then-
- JRJoe Rogan
I bet barely
- NBNick Bostrom
... like the third-best, like it's just-
- JRJoe Rogan
I bet barely
- NBNick Bostrom
... barely scraping by.
- JRJoe Rogan
I bet the best guy probably makes maybe 100 grand or 200 grand-
- NBNick Bostrom
Oh
- JRJoe Rogan
... at the most. And that means like the 30th guy in the world is fucked.
- NBNick Bostrom
Will make nothing, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. There, you have to have another job to pursue that.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, well, but then i- in, in this-
- JRJoe Rogan
What does he make? Oh, 200K? Oh, 400K in big season.
- NBNick Bostrom
Oh, wow.
- JRJoe Rogan
450, including prize money and sponsorships.
- NBNick Bostrom
But then like what does the-
- JRJoe Rogan
EJ Tackett made $437... Fuck yeah, EJ. EJ Tackett made, uh, $437,540 for the 2025 season, with several others between 190K and 270K in prize money alone, top tier. So the top-tier guys make a good living.
- NBNick Bostrom
But is this-
- JRJoe Rogan
But how many guys are there? You know, you know what I'm saying?
- NBNick Bostrom
No, it's probably like a very thin sort of-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... peak, and then-
- 28:16 – 42:33
From exercise to neurochemistry: depression, coaching, and better future medicine
- NBNick Bostrom
And, and at, at least to some extent. Now I think there's probably also some differences in how different folks are wired. Like some people-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes
- NBNick Bostrom
... get bored very easily. Others find everything fascinating.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes.
- NBNick Bostrom
Some people are like just naturally depressed or have low mood. Others are sort of ebullient.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, but those people that are naturally depressed, how much would their life change if they were coached at a very ear- early age the value of exercise, and if they started running, if they started doing yoga, and they started feeling much better, and they weren't naturally depressed anymore? And then you change their diet, and you start adding in vitamins-
- NBNick Bostrom
Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah
- JRJoe Rogan
... and nutrients and stop giving them processed foods, and all of a sudden they feel better. Because the concept even of depression, like what does that mean? Well, it's, it varies so wildly, and when you're talking about people that aren't taking care of their bodies, and that's not thought of as a primary factor in why depression exists in the first place, well, this is a very unscientific approach then. Because we know that it has a profound impact on human beings.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
So we're pretending that there's like this one size fit all. No, I think that should be also a part of teaching people how to be a human being. Chase your curiosities, but also this is why you're not feeling well, and that if you just develop this ability to get some momentum going and just show up at that yoga class every day-
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah
- JRJoe Rogan
... you'll feel way better.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
And you don't have to take a pill.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, no, I, I'm, I'm... I think, yeah, uh, m- many could be a lot improved if-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes
- NBNick Bostrom
... they were taught to sort of take care of their basic physiology and-
- JRJoe Rogan
Everyone can be improved.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
All 100% of them can be improved. It's a part of being a human being.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, yeah. Well, I, I mean, I don't know. I think there is also some people who might just have, you know, some, you know, imbalance of some neurotransmitter because of some genetic mutation or something.
- JRJoe Rogan
100%. That's possible too.
- NBNick Bostrom
Or maybe they don't even have the energy to engage in these activities that would make them feel better. But then I think there would be much better medicines for, uh, helping those people.
- JRJoe Rogan
That's where Adderall comes in. Let's go. Give them some Adderall. [laughs]
- NBNick Bostrom
Well-
- JRJoe Rogan
Get them fired up
- NBNick Bostrom
... um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Get them to start running I'm kidding. But, uh, but what we're saying is all doable. We're not asking people to breathe underwater, right? We're, you're, we're saying is that s- there are people on Earth that live like that, and this idea that living just for a paycheck so that you can cover your food and your housing, which we've always thought of as being a, just an undeniable part of being a person, an adult. This is what you have to do. You have to pay for your food, pay for your housing. But if we, we do get to a point where the structure of society is now run by hyper-intelligent artificial intelligence, uh, you would, wouldn't need most jobs that people have to do that suck, and w- in order to get our society to this point, if you wanted an iPhone, you needed some people that were in a factory somewhere putting it all together. You needed someone who's designing it. You needed someone who's sitting there in the office trying to figure out how to market it. You needed all those jobs. But when we don't need all those jobs anymore, then things are gonna be very interesting, and that, that's what I'm saying, we need to become a different thing. Like, it's kind of true and kind of not. Like, you, you, you can be a human being and live in that world, but we're gonna have to re-educate people how to be a human being. It's, it's gonna... This... Our, our education system specifically in this country is just designed to make factory workers.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
It's specifically. Like, there's a, there's a real history of it. Like, we, we know why they made it this way. They made it this way, and they got people in really early so they could get people set up for jobs. They just want people to work.
- 42:33 – 45:19
Shortcuts to everything: downloading knowledge and ‘post-instrumental’ life
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, I am. I, that I think that-that's kind of in-inspiring and, but, like, I think the train doesn't stop there. So if we think even more, uh, farther into this kind of condition of technological maturity, I think in, in addition to sort of freeing up people, you know, like, making it easy to produce the food, and the houses, and, like, cars that go faster and don't pollute, and all of this stuff, like, if you think through what maybe a technologically mature civilization could do, like, so a lot of these, um... Like learning, for example, is something that gives people purpose, but maybe you would have the ability to sort of download knowledge-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm
- NBNick Bostrom
... um, at the click of a button. So rather than... Like, if you wanna learn advanced mathematics, now you have to study year, like, for years, right? Do, like, books with exercises and apply yourself, and then eventually you sort of unlock-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... um, but, like, maybe at technological maturity there would be like, "Okay, understand mathematics. Okay, I'm gonna press that button." Boom. Now-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... you understand mathematics.
- JRJoe Rogan
Like The Matrix.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
"I know kung fu." Remember when he did that?
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. Yeah. So if, if you had, like, you know, maybe some kind of nanobots that could infiltrate your brain and then change the synapses in just such a way that you are not the same as you were before, except you have these concepts from abstract mathematics-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes
- NBNick Bostrom
... uh, you know, after 20 minutes or something like that. Some superintelligence works out how to change your synapses to this new condition. Um, and if you were inclined to do various things because they give you joy and pleasure, uh, like, you could also think, "Well, I could do those things and get the joy and pleasure, or I could just push this button that's like activates the same joy and pleasure."
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm.
- NBNick Bostrom
So there would be these shortcuts to everything, and it looks like you would have a post-instrumental condition where there would, at least at first sight, seem to be no reason to do anything for the sake of achieving something else because there would always be this, like, shorter path to that other thing that pressing the button.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, and so that's a kind of deeper form of redundancy. It seems that all forms of human instrumental effort would become unmotivated. Uh, you, you could still, you know, go to the gym, uh, uh, every day and sweat for an hour, uh, or you could just take the pill that induces exactly the same physiological effects and the mental effects, like the calm or whatever you feel after.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, so maybe-
- JRJoe Rogan
Or maybe even better, genetically engineer someone-
- NBNick Bostrom
Or genetically, yeah. In other words-
- JRJoe Rogan
... so you don't have to take a pill.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, yeah. Um, and so, so then I think you're getting more into these, like, fundamental questions of value.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Philosophical questions about what ultimately is it that makes a life good, um-
- JRJoe Rogan
And what makes a life good for a primate, 'cause that's what we are.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, yeah.
- 45:19 – 58:08
Post-human trajectories: engineered evolution, ‘grays,’ mind-reading, and UFO tangent
- JRJoe Rogan
Or a primitive version of primates. I think we're gonna become something different, and if we do it through technologically induced evolution or biologically induced evolution, we're still moving in a general direction. Just biologically there... I mean, if you look at ancient hominids and look at us, we're clearly very different, so we're moving in a general direction anyway. And when you look at the grays, like these, uh, prototypical aliens that everybody sees with the big heads and the skinny bodies, what do they look like? Well, they look like if we keep going, that's what we're gonna look like.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
We're gonna be these genderless, sexless, muscleless little skinny things-
- NBNick Bostrom
[laughs]
- JRJoe Rogan
... with giant heads that communicate telepathically, which is probably where we're moving. And if we're moving that way, uh, maybe we, you know, we think of them as being an alien from another p- m-maybe that's not e- maybe that's just the general direction that primates go once they figure out technology. They eventually realize, well, all... First of all, the idea of having to have a male and a female is kind of crazy, right? Why? Well, because we have to reproduce. Well, what if we don't reproduce like that anymore? What if all reproduction is done through engineering, and there's no more, uh, there's no more sex, so there's no more lust, so there's no more jealousy, so there's no more ego? There's no more anything. And then there's a hive mind because technology has advanced to the point where the reason why they have these big, giant heads, they're, they're essentially locked into everybody all around them all the time.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. Well, is that what we would want, though?
- JRJoe Rogan
Not us, but I don't think we'll be us anymore. I think this i- like, if you went to chimps and you said, "Hey, dude, one day you're gonna be on a plane eating peanuts, flying over the ocean," they'd be like, "Fuck that. I don't wanna do that. I'll just stay here where the fruit is."
- NBNick Bostrom
Right.
- JRJoe Rogan
"You guys are nuts. Like, why do you wanna do that? And you'll be, uh, addicted to kratom, and you'll be, uh, watching YouTube all day long."
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, "No, I don't wanna do that."
- NBNick Bostrom
No.
- JRJoe Rogan
"That's not... It doesn't sound fun." But-
- NBNick Bostrom
We'd have, we'd have a lot of bananas, though.
- JRJoe Rogan
[laughs] Maybe, or you have to get killed by the other chimpanzees that want the bananas. You know, they have chimp wars. They come in and kill each other. So I think we're gonna be something different, and I think that's inevitable anyway. If you believe in evolution, it's inevitable anyway that we become something different.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
We're not a finished product.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. No. I think, I think that is true. We are not the finished product. No. The question is the thing that we become or that becomes, is that, um, a result of us choosing how we wanna be, or is it just these kind of impersonal forces like evolution selecting certain types-
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm
- NBNick Bostrom
... that might then end up, uh, leading to outcomes that we actually don't want? And so I guess the hope is that we would be able to develop along a path that preserves and develops, uh, the things that we actually value about being human-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... maybe amplifies them, then maybe adds other things. Um, so there are many different possible things you could develop in the future, but that we sort of select those that actually make us better rather than just randomly different, um, that we can sort of grow into our ideals.
- JRJoe Rogan
But it's so funny how much value we put in human condition. How much value we put in meaning, 'cause w- it, it is valuable to us. When you think about, like, what that means in terms of the amount of energy it produces, the amount of impact that it has, versus the structure of the universe itself, versus black holes and stellar nurseries and things that are just infinitely more spectacular than the human condition. But to us, it's like, "Oh, what is meaning? What is meaning? What is meaning to me?"
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Like, well, what is m- meaning to me- you is you're a, a finite biological organism that has to find meaning because you're sort of tromping around through this weird world where eventually you're gonna die, and you're gonna leave your mark, and maybe reincarnation's real and maybe the afterlife's real. Nobody fucking knows, so you gotta have meaning. But the universe itself, like a human only lives 100 years. How much meaning can you have in 100 years?
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, yeah, no, that is ... I, I think we kind of die prematurely. I mean, we think of us as like, so first, first you become stronger and more capable for 15, 20 years, right? Uh, then biologically you stagnate, and then maybe you keep accumulating sort of knowledge and skills for another few decades.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- NBNick Bostrom
But, like, just as you have started to acquire, like, a modicum of wisdom, like, your brain starts to rot.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yep.
- NBNick Bostrom
And then, uh, everything is erased-
- 58:08 – 1:05:47
Life extension as moral urgency: defeating aging and escaping ‘Stockholm syndrome’
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah, no, for sure. Uh, fixing aging and reversing it would be amongst the things that a technologically mature civilization would be able to do. And-
- JRJoe Rogan
We just have to get people out of the idea that it's vain. Why do you want to live forever?
- NBNick Bostrom
Well, that's-
- JRJoe Rogan
Come on
- NBNick Bostrom
... what they say now, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
But when somebody actually has the, uh, therapy, and you could, like, oh, here, you could either continue to get, you know, worse kidneys and more painful knees-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... and wrinkles, and you start to forget things, or you can take this, uh, this rejuvenation serum that everybody else is using, and they are, like, full of energy and running around and doing stuff. Like-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... do you still think it's a vain? So I think a lot of this is Stockholm syndrome, that, like, you are kind of faced with the inevitability of aging and decay and have been for thousands of years. So you develop a kind of romantic-
- JRJoe Rogan
Romanticizing
- NBNick Bostrom
... scaffold that-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes
- NBNick Bostrom
... reconciles you to the inevitable.
- JRJoe Rogan
I like it.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Stockholm syndrome
- NBNick Bostrom
... which is, is maybe adaptive, but on- only up until the point where there actually might be something you could do to escape, right? Then if you're too stuck in this mindset, it might sort of prevent you from taking advantage to, to regain your freedom.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, and I think we are now at that stage. We don't yet have the therapies, but there are certainly, like, investments and research and stuff we could do that would hasten the arrival. Um, and I think, in fact, we should have started on a big sort of, you know, Manhattan Project to defeat aging, like, decades ago, and maybe we would have better therapies by now then. But for a long time, aging was not seen as a problem, only the specific diseases that are the result of the aging.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yes.
- NBNick Bostrom
And they, they got all this funding, right? Like, so you have, like, huge research projects for Alzheimer's and for heart disease and for cancer.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- NBNick Bostrom
But if you look at the, the, the main common cause of most human disease, it's senescence. Like, you're much more likely to get any of these when you're 80 than when you're 20 because your cells gradually decay and gunk builds up.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Your arteries clog up. You know, your, your DNA mutates. Your methylation pattern gets scrambled.
- JRJoe Rogan
Your brain shrinks.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, so, so rather than just trying to put out the fires one by one after they occur, like, at some point, you just need to sort of try to, to prevent... Like, maybe you need a bit of rain to sort of prevent a-
- JRJoe Rogan
It's kind of amazing-
- 1:05:47 – 1:23:17
From Dyson spheres to superintelligence: timelines, takeoff speed, and ‘what is consciousness?’
- NBNick Bostrom
You could have, uh, you know, like a Dyson sphere. You've heard of this concept, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Mm-hmm.
- NBNick Bostrom
It's basically like using the output of the sun for energy generation. And you could have, like, you surround the, the sun by solar panels that then powers a civilization infrastructure. Maybe like a computer. Like, imagine the... Like, al- already we have, like, AI computes growing at, like, 240% per year or something, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Like, with this. And then, like, imagine the kind of mind that could run on that sized computer. Um, so people are wondering whether, like, could machines be conscious and, like, discussing that, right? Right now, uh, uh, I think, like, maybe the more pertinent question is, like, are, are we really conscious? I think barely.
- JRJoe Rogan
[laughs]
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh, so you're driving on, on, like, the road for two and a half hours, a motorist, right? And, like, driving past thousands of people, and homes, and, like, mothers with their strollers. And then after, does he, does he remember any of that? Like, was he even really aware of any of this while he was driving? It's like a little diffuse sense of body and some murky perceptions floating through, uh, maybe some confused abstract idea that we don't really understand. That's kind of the consciousness that can fit into this coconut sized biological organ-
- JRJoe Rogan
[laughs]
- NBNick Bostrom
... that we think, and we think, "Wow, we are so conscious." But, like, imagine this Dyson sphere consciousness.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Or, uh, like a mind that maybe spans a galaxy. I think the difference between the sort of awareness that it could have and, and our awareness might be, like, bigger than the difference between our awareness and, like, whatever a flea has or something like that.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Way bigger. Um, so it could be this, like, transition where we develop super intelligent minds that for the first time is really life, uh, waking up and becoming truly aware.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, and, and that we are a little bit sort of, uh, over pride- proud in, in our own specialness when we think that, like, we have achieved something close to the maximum level of, uh, uh... That we are the standard by which consciousness should be measured and, and we, we are this kind of feeble, confused, murky glimmer that is barely sentient at all. Um, so, so that's like I think maybe the big challenge for our, uh, e- era, like giving birth to super intelligence, and then hopefully shaping and nurturing it and steering it so that it becomes a positive thing, uh, both for us, ourselves, uh, and also for it itself, and also for whatever other... If there are other super beings somewhere in, in the world or in the cosmos, that it sort of is able to get along with us and, and contribute positively at, at the cosmic scale. Um, and that's, that's a very multifaceted challenge, but I think that's kind of seems to be what's going on.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, and it's hard for people to think that far ahead. You know, you just think of intelligence being something superior to what we currently experience. But when you're talking about a computer or, a, um, a, a, a, an, a, a being, a conscious being that is infinitely more powerful than anything we can imagine, that seems to be what... I- if everything keeps going in the same general direction, and AI increases its power, and we figure out new ways to power it, and then... Uh, 'cause one of the things that AI needs that's so interesting is it needs enormous amounts of power. And so the... just these AI centers that they're developing now, they're dev- like Google's doing one where they're developing their own nuclear power. Do you want some coffee?
- NBNick Bostrom
Are you stir?
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, right here, dog.
- NBNick Bostrom
Oh, let's get a little-
- JRJoe Rogan
I saw you reaching for your cup.
- NBNick Bostrom
Oh, yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
You shouldn't be drinking out of paper cups anyway, man.
- NBNick Bostrom
No, I don't usually do that.
- JRJoe Rogan
[laughs] So, I know, I don't either, but occasionally I do, but they're so bad for you.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
But-
- NBNick Bostrom
I'm, I'm usually quite conscientious with like-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... becoming a little bit obsessed with this
- JRJoe Rogan
Even when I go on the road, I've started taking a little, uh, Yeti, uh, coffee cup with me so I could b- buy coffee and just have them put it in that. This is-
- 1:23:17 – 1:47:26
Alignment vs. governance: US–China race, regulation attempts, and why pausing is hard
- JRJoe Rogan
Is... There's also the fear that, uh, America doesn't come up with it first. This is our fear-
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. That, that's-
- JRJoe Rogan
... over here
- NBNick Bostrom
... like, mo- mostly a fear in, in America.
- JRJoe Rogan
America. Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
Like in, in China, for example, it's [laughs] probably-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... a different concern
- JRJoe Rogan
... America comes up with it first.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah. I mean, it's re- it's really just America and China that are at the forefront of this race, right?
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Russia a little bit, but not-
- NBNick Bostrom
Not-
- JRJoe Rogan
... on the same level
- NBNick Bostrom
... not, not Russia.
- JRJoe Rogan
No? Not Russia.
- NBNick Bostrom
Not really, no.
- JRJoe Rogan
Who else is it? Did you see this last week? Ford hiring 350 engineers after AI failed shows... Failed shows human value in AI era. It's a really big- What does that mean? No. That's... I tried to find the only one that didn't, and I just did it. Um- They rehired a bunch of engineers they fired after their AI [clears throat] wasn't matching the quality they needed. Oh. And this is Ford. Yeah. That's interesting. Mm-hmm. They probably jumped the gun. You know? Yep. They probably fired them too quickly. Yeah. And now these people that they rehire, these people are gonna like, "Oh, how much time we have left? Six months before AI figures out how to do this just as well?"
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. I mean, we don't know. I mean, it, it's, it's also possible that, uh, things, timelines could extend if... And, like, one, one way that could happen is... So, so the progress we've seen in the last 10 years, which has been remarkable, right? It's, to a substantial extent, driven by the advances, the, the increase in compute that is being used to train and run these systems. Like, it used to be that you had a cutting-edge AI system if you were some academic, like, running on your PC in your office. Like, that, that was kind of the amount of computing power that was applied to, like, doing AI stuff. And now, of course, you have these kind of tens of billions of dollar data centers, like hundreds of megawatts.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Uh, like just massive funding. So the chips have gotten better, but also just the amount of funding, like, you're just building many more of these chips. And so as you apply more and more compute, like, performance improves, and that's, like, has been a big driver. Now, at some point, uh, the, like... You might not be able to keep increasing the amount of money you spend on it because, like, you, you can, you can go from, like, $1,000 PC to, like, a million dollars quite easily. And you can go from a million dollar to a billion dollars. And, uh, maybe you're spending on the order of a trillion dollars, uh, across the world to build data centers per year. But you can't really- Do like three orders of magnitude very easily. There, there's like not a thousand trillion dollars to spend on it. So at some point, just expenditure has to kind of slow down. So if we haven't achieved superintelligence by then, then maybe that will mean progress gets slower if, if the main driver is the scale-up of compute. Now, it is also true that some of the progress is driven by algorithmic advances, like just kind of clever algorithms. Um, so that, that might continue. But if one driver stalls out, then that could result in faster progress. Uh, and then of course, there's a possibility that, um, the pe- the people who wanna, uh, uh, pause or regulate AI, uh, gain enough traction to kind of get regulatory inhibitions.
- JRJoe Rogan
How would they do that, though, if, if there really is some sort of a Manhattan Project-style race between the United States and China? And what, what other countries are developing AI right now that are close?
- NBNick Bostrom
Well, I mean, those are the-
- JRJoe Rogan
Those are the two big ones?
- NBNick Bostrom
... the big ones.
- JRJoe Rogan
Is it possible that someone could sneak up on us and develop superintelligent-
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, well-
- JRJoe Rogan
... AI first?
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. I mean, it's possible if there were, like, some big algorithmic breakthrough, for example, that made it a lot more efficient to run-
- 1:47:26 – 1:54:24
Information warfare and collective sanity: AI reshapes discourse like writing and mass media did
- JRJoe Rogan
I'm glad you brought that up 'cause that, that's a, one of the major fears that a lot of people have is that human beings will develop ideologies based around AI, that there'll be, like, an AI god that someone develops.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, yeah, and I mean, I think all... That's, in fact, I would add that to the list of, I've mentioned nuclear and bio, uh, terrorist risk as, like, background existential risks. Like, another is, like, some form of insanity, like collective insanity. I, I feel our, our civilizational sanity already is kind of, uh, a little bit precarious. I think we're just kind of maybe barely holding ourselves together.
- JRJoe Rogan
Uh-huh.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, and it's amazing how well the world functions despite how crazy people are and how much they loathe their opponents and so forth.
- JRJoe Rogan
Well, there's-
- NBNick Bostrom
And we still manage to somehow get it to work
- JRJoe Rogan
... there's also manipulation of the zeitgeist that's clearly being done by bots. So you've got a bunch of people online that are having arguments on Twitter, and they're not even talking to people. There's a bunch of ideas that are being pushed out on Twitter and a lot of these social media platforms. It's not even human beings tweeting about it. It's not, it's not. It's, there's, there's algorithms. There's AI. There's people that are hired to do it. There's people that are working for certain organizations that are hired to muddy up the waters, gaslight people, create problems, have people argue with each other. And so it's like if AI recognizes how easy it is to manipulate people, do whatever it wants, that's a fear as well.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um, yeah. So whenever you change the basic parameters of sort of the social, cultural, political discourse, um, new dynamics will emerge, and we don't have the kind of social science that is able to predict what happens if you change some of these knobs.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
So we've seen in the past, like you invent... Like, let's go all the way back, like somebody invents writing. Okay? So that turns out to have had a huge effect, uh, not just on people writing, like, literature and stuff, but, like, on political systems. So you could now have states that could keep tax records, right? So you could have larger political units with writing, and then they can hire standing armies, and now you have, like, large scale war. You have social stratification. You could have, like, the, the ruler of a large area could have, you know, enormous wealth, and you could have- ... a soldier caste that, like, protects against internal and external. So, like, just the way that human societies are politically organized changes as a result of this change in the rules of communication, when you can have written texts, right? And then you have the printing press, again, where, like, like, you know, 100 years of religious wars in, in Europe, like reformation and all of this stuff, is possibly... And then, like, forms of democracy later on are also coming out of this, and the scientific revolution. Um, then you have, like, mass media in the last century with, like, radio and stuff, and you have kind of demagogues that take advantage of being able to simultaneously talk to millions of people, 'cause that was never possible before, right?
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
You could have some charismatic kind of guy who's like, rallies up the whole nation and then new ideologies become memetically fit in that situation that might never have... If, if it were people writing kind of letters to the editor, like, it's kind of a different s- type of idea that works there than if you're giving a kind of stump speech that goes out to millions simultaneously. And now, with social media, of course, we have another one of these, and you do see that starting to change culture in different ways.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
And, and now with AI being the next wave of this, that will also change. You have, like, bots, you have new ways of finding information, you have maybe AIs that can themselves be super persuaders. That will also change, presumably, in some unknown, un- unknowable way, the, the way that, like, social discourse pans out. And for any one of these, I guess it could turn out to be a lot better. We could become more informed having AI advisors. I think that's a fairly likely scenario, but it's also possible somehow the dynamics shape out in a different way, and we kind of go collectively insane in some way. Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Back to the whitewater raft
- NBNick Bostrom
... um, white to backwater raft, yes, and it, it all becomes kind of totalitarian, or we sort of fragment into, like, political warring tribes, or we become kind of completely unhinged. Every one of us becomes convinced of their own little nutty theory that they then, like, their AI or feed just serves them more material to kind of fuel their conviction. There, there are different ways in which this could go badly, but, um-
- JRJoe Rogan
But don't you think even if that happens, ultimately the progress of AI won't stop? And so the, the... Again, I keep going back to this thing, but I think this is really what it is, is we have to change, like, what it means to be a person. All those things are only problems if people stay what we are now, which is territorial primates with desire to possess material goods for some strange reason, even though we're a finite life form. If all that changes, if we change what it means to be a person, which seems inevitable-
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. But-
- JRJoe Rogan
... then, then it won't matter. Then if we all... Like, w- if we, if there's no... If we could figure out a way to literally engineer out all of the issues that humans have with greed and violence, and all the, all the different things that trouble society, if the desire for that is no longer a part of being a person, which is, that's doable. That's, that seems like if we're gonna continue to evolve past, you know, Australopithecus to Homo sapiens 2026, if that, if we continue the same amount of time in the future, we'll probably won't be like that anymore. The best versions of people aren't people that want to steal your house, and steal your land, and shoot you, and take your resources. That's... The best people are the people that contribute, and they're interesting, and they, they make you excited to be around them, and you like it. The, uh, if that keeps going on, and the, and if that is aided by technology, if we recognize that there's actual patterns of human thinking and behavior that can be changed, and that w- if we all agree to subscribe to this algorithm, to connect to this computer program, connect to this external device, or maybe not even external, maybe, maybe it's internal, that allows us to communicate with each other telepathically. Like, all that, all that changes, and then it doesn't matter. It, it doesn't matter if there's any guardrails for AI or not, because we're not the same thing anymore. Like, all the problem, the worry that we have about AI, the worry we have about power, manipulation, and the abi- the, the ability to influence people, all that kind of goes away if people don't behave the way they behave currently.
- 1:54:24 – 2:14:41
Choosing the destination: utopias, dystopias, unintended consequences, and ‘artificial purpose’
- NBNick Bostrom
Mm-hmm. Well, I guess here is one, uh, difference with your, like, whitewater rafting metaphor that, uh... So the one, uh, with this, in, in that metaphor, it's kind of we need to hang on. Like, there's a risk we could smash ourselves on the rock, but if we don't do that, then there's kind of one way we end up, right downstream.
- JRJoe Rogan
We end up in a nice lake.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah. But-
- JRJoe Rogan
Wee
- NBNick Bostrom
... I think in reality, what might also be the case, that in addition to trying to not smash ourselves on the rock, there might be, uh, places where the choices we make affect the ultimate destination.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
Go left or go right.
- NBNick Bostrom
Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah.
- NBNick Bostrom
Or-
- JRJoe Rogan
Which stream do you follow?
- NBNick Bostrom
... and, but maybe, maybe a more mul- Yeah.
- JRJoe Rogan
Mul-
- NBNick Bostrom
Um-
- JRJoe Rogan
... yeah, multipath
- NBNick Bostrom
... and where, like, if, if you steer in one direction, you, you might end up in, in one place ultimately, in some sort of strange post-human world, and maybe it's really beautiful, and people have the chance to grow into their true self, and we love each other and are creative and take initiatives, and go a different way. Maybe, uh, you have a pi- paperclip maximizing AI, or maybe that just everything is paperclips, or going a third way, maybe you have, like, a totalitarian system with, like, a small elite on top and everybody else-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... um, or just-
- JRJoe Rogan
Sci-fi movie
- NBNick Bostrom
... kind of... Yeah. Or, or, and then, and then there are many m- more possibilities, and, and maybe some that kind of we would think would look kind of good if we chose now, but then in reality they have some hidden flaw that we didn't think of. So if we chose those, it would sort of be a mistake.
- JRJoe Rogan
Right.
- NBNick Bostrom
And then maybe others that don't look that appealing to us now if, if you just presented them in a brochure to you, like, but then actually if you thought hard about it, maybe you would realize that actually would be a really nice place to live. Uh, because like in, in, in the current world, there are, there are places that are nice to visit that are interesting, but then tho-those are not necessarily the same places we would wanna live and raise a kid, right? So there's-
- JRJoe Rogan
Right
- NBNick Bostrom
... there are like novels and movies that are really fun to watch, but you wouldn't wanna live in those worlds.
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah, you wouldn't wanna live in Blood Meridian.
- NBNick Bostrom
And so, so there's a difference between the kind of what makes-
- JRJoe Rogan
Yeah
- NBNick Bostrom
... for the good, interesting story and the place where you actually wanna spend the rest of your life. And so I think there would be possibly a lot of opportunities to make foolish choices, uh, or unwise choices or conflicts that sort of thwarts the, the process and makes us end up... Not, not just that we go extinct before we reach there, but that the there that we reach might depend on the level of wisdom and kindness that we have during the process.
- JRJoe Rogan
And there's always unintended consequences with every solution that we try to find for any problem that we have. There's always some new thing that comes up. We're like, "Oh, we didn't see that coming." I mean, certainly when, whenever we're dealing with nature, like whenever they've, uh, brought in an invasive species to handle other invasive species, it always a giant disaster, you know?
Episode duration: 2:14:41
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Transcript of episode 8qTZLqY-cnI
