A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans

Benedict Evans is an independent analyst and former partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he spent years as their in-house “thinker” tracking the most important technology trends. For the past six years, he’s been publishing deeply researched presentations on where tech is heading, most recently focused on AI’s transformation of the economy. His work is read by founders, investors, and operators trying to make sense of a noisy field. His most controversial opinion: AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big. *In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:* 1. Why we’re in “1997” for AI—early, exciting, and deeply uncertain about what comes next 2. Where value will actually accrue in the AI stack 3. The anti-AI backlash, and where it may lead 4. The surprising boom in consulting and professional services at AI companies 5. Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat as software gets easier to build 6. Why the right question about your job isn’t “What percent can AI do?” but “Is this a task or a job?” 7. Why things will probably be okay—and what you need to do to prepare *Brought to you by:* WorkOS—Make your app enterprise-ready, with SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and more: https://workos.com/lenny Vanta—Automate compliance, manage risk, and accelerate trust with AI: https://vanta.com/lenny *Episode transcript:* https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-rational-conversation-on-where *Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts:* https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0 *Where to find Benedict Evans:* • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans • Newsletter: https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter • Website: https://www.ben-evans.com *Where to find Lenny:* • Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com • X: https://twitter.com/lennysan • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/ *In this episode, we cover:* (00:00) Introduction to Benedict Evans (02:19) What people aren’t pricing in about AI’s impact (06:24) Why we’re in the 1997 moment of AI (09:44) The unexpected boom in professional services and consultants (17:44) Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat (23:17) The coming job transformation: what’s real vs. panic (27:33) Why AGI definitions keep shifting (38:11) Where value will accrue: models vs. applications (42:55) Distribution wars: Google, Meta, Apple, and OpenAI (48:12) The anti-AI sentiment and backlash (53:11) How to raise kids in an AI future (58:27) What jobs to steer toward or away from (59:20) The question nobody’s asking about AI (1:06:25) How to be successful in this coming future (1:08:43) AI corner (1:11:43) Lightning round *Referenced:* • Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com • AI Eats the World: https://youtu.be/niJpDnNtNp4 • VisiCalc: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc • McKinsey & Company: https://www.mckinsey.com • Bain & Company: https://www.bain.com • Accenture: https://www.accenture.com • Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox • Benedict’s post on LinkedIn about Excel: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benedictevans_younger-people-may-not-believe-this-but-activity-7303217994459938816-PNqu • The AI-native startup: 5 products, 7-figure revenue, 100% AI-written code | Dan Shipper (co-founder/CEO of Every): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-every-dan-shipper • Dario Amodei on X: https://x.com/DarioAmodei • Marc Andreessen: The real AI boom hasn’t even started yet: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/marc-andreessen-the-real-ai-boom • Frame.io: https://frame.io • Food Marketing Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_Marketing_Institute • Llama: https://www.llama.com • Steven Sinofsky on X: https://x.com/stevesi • Drake meme: https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/343699919/Drake-Hotline-Bling-Transparent-Background • Ex-Google CEO Gets Booed While Discussing AI in Commencement Speech | WSJ News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNH43a1EI7s • Jonathan Swift’s quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9838985-you-cannot-reason-a-person-out-of-a-position-he • George Carlin’s quote: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/george_carlin_391403 • Fujitsu: https://global.fujitsu • O*NET OnLine: https://www.onetonline.org • Pete Holmes’s website: https://peteholmes.com • The Seventh Seal: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976 • Ericsson R310s phone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson_R310s • i-mate phone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-mate *Recommended books:* • Three Men in a Boat: https://www.amazon.com/Three-Men-Boat-Jerome-K/dp/1512099899 • Nature’s Metropolis: Chicago and the Great West: https://www.amazon.com/Natures-Metropolis-Chicago-Great-West/dp/0393308731 _Production and marketing by https://penname.co/._ _For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com._ Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.