Futurist Amy Webb: Insights from her 2024 Tech Trends Report | Masters of Scale

1. 0:00 – 2:18

   Introducing Amy Webb

   1. AWAmy Webb0:00

      I was in Tokyo-

   2. JBJeff Berman0:01

      Okay

   3. AWAmy Webb0:01

      ... 2002. So Japan and Korea for a while were much further ahead than everybody else in mobile.

   4. JBJeff Berman0:08

      That's Amy Webb describing one of the first revelations that put her on a career path to being a futurist, an entrepreneur, and a popular author.

   5. AWAmy Webb0:18

      I had a phone, um, in the early 2000s that was connected to the internet. It had a camera. Um, at, at the same time that Americans were, were basically using the old Nokia 50, I think it was a 5190.

   6. JBJeff Berman0:32

      Mm-hmm.

   7. AWAmy Webb0:32

      Right? Which was very analog. You could play Snake.

   8. JBJeff Berman0:34

      Mm-hmm.

   9. AWAmy Webb0:34

      That was the most thrilling thing-

   10. JBJeff Berman0:35

       Yep

   11. AWAmy Webb0:35

       ... you could do with it.

   12. JBJeff Berman0:36

       Yep.

   13. AWAmy Webb0:37

       But my phone was really advanced, and, um, all I could see was a future where everybody was gonna have phones that had cameras that were connected to an internet, where you could take pictures and you could share pictures, and therefore, given what I knew about technology and components and costs and everything else, like, it just seemed very obvious that the future of the internet was more distributed. The future of content was less one-to-many and more sort of many-to-many.

   14. JBJeff Berman1:06

       Being early to insights like this has established Amy Webb as a memorable public thinker. As an advisor, her roster of clients includes global companies and governments. Amy's also a highly sought-after speaker. People literally camp out to hear her annual talk at South by Southwest. It's kinda like the tech entrepreneur's version of the Taylor Swift Eras Tour. In this episode, you'll get a front row seat where you'll hear her latest insights about what the future may hold and how to prepare for it. [instrumental music] This is Masters of Scale. I'm your host, Jeff Berman. Our guest today has a job title that's not something you'd encounter at a typical career day at a school. She's a futurist. As the founder and CEO of the Future Today Institute, Amy is a global leader in strategic foresight. She teaches her craft at NYU's business school and is the author of several influential books and papers. Her latest work is all about the convergence of innovation that's leading to what she calls a technology super cycle. We'll dig into that in a bit, but first I wanted to learn more about where Amy's obsession with predicting the future began.

2. 2:18 – 5:59

   Amy Webb’s journey to becoming a futurist

   1. JBJeff Berman2:18

      Amy, welcome to Masters of Scale.

   2. AWAmy Webb2:20

      Thank you.

   3. JBJeff Berman2:20

      Um, I'm super curious about so much of what you do, but I wanna start by asking how one becomes a futurist.

   4. AWAmy Webb2:31

      So, uh, there are many paths. You can go to school.

   5. JBJeff Berman2:35

      They'll teach you to see the future?

   6. AWAmy Webb2:37

      There are courses. Um, I actually teach one at Stern, NYU Stern, the MBA program. Um, so it is, uh... There, there is a... It's an academic discipline, um, so, so you can study it. Um, but a lot of people wind up in professions from different backgrounds, so I actually did not study foresight in university.

   7. JBJeff Berman2:56

      What did you study?

   8. AWAmy Webb2:57

      Game theory and economics. Actually, my dream job, which probably only you and nobody else listening to this podcast will appreciate, was solicitor general.

   9. JBJeff Berman3:06

      Oh my God.

   10. AWAmy Webb3:07

       So, right? So that-

   11. JBJeff Berman3:08

       Of the United States of America

   12. AWAmy Webb3:09

       ... that was my... As insane as this sounds, like, uh, that was my dream job when I was in fifth grade. You know, I was like, "Well, I... Why would I wanna be president? The president just manages things for a handful of years. I wanna set pre... Like, I wanna be the person that makes the laws that are here forever." Um-

   13. JBJeff Berman3:25

       And you're like six, and this is your, your mission in life.

   14. AWAmy Webb3:27

       Well, I was, I was like 10.

   15. JBJeff Berman3:28

       Yeah.

   16. AWAmy Webb3:28

       No, but I was like-

   17. JBJeff Berman3:29

       Yeah

   18. AWAmy Webb3:29

       ... "That's what I'm doing."

   19. JBJeff Berman3:30

       Wow.

   20. AWAmy Webb3:31

       So, uh, from that point forward, everything was about law school.

   21. JBJeff Berman3:34

       So what, what took you from game theory and economics away from law and-

   22. AWAmy Webb3:39

       Yeah

   23. JBJeff Berman3:40

       ... into the world you're in?

   24. AWAmy Webb3:41

       So there is this thing called the LSAT-

   25. JBJeff Berman3:44

       Yes

   26. AWAmy Webb3:44

       ... which is a fun test-

   27. JBJeff Berman3:46

       Mm-hmm

   28. AWAmy Webb3:46

       ... that, uh, [laughs] you have to take to get into an American law school. And I got through the first two sections without a problem, and as it turns out, I got a perfect score on those two sections.

   29. JBJeff Berman3:56

       Uh-huh.

   30. AWAmy Webb3:56

       And I-
3. 5:59 – 7:54

   Founding the Future Today Institute

   1. JBJeff Berman5:59

      Amy left the news business and started a new company, the Future Today Institute.

   2. AWAmy Webb6:05

      We are a- Uh, organization that just does one thing, and that is strategic foresight. Strategic foresight is a data-driven way of seeing the future, uh, for the purpose of making better strategic decisions. So our mission really is to empower businesses, governments to do long-range planning in a way that helps them grow, but, uh, also make sure that we all wind up in a good spot. We're also very, very good at dis- uh, at disruption.

   3. JBJeff Berman6:36

      Mm-hmm.

   4. AWAmy Webb6:36

      So figuring out where there is risk. Um, and, uh, and we do that on behalf of organizations all over the world.

   5. JBJeff Berman6:44

      Yeah.

   6. AWAmy Webb6:44

      There were never any investors, and I do not... Look, I, I come from a very, very modest background. There was no family money whatsoever.

   7. JBJeff Berman6:51

      For so many of our audience, th- there's this, this cold start problem.

   8. AWAmy Webb6:56

      Mm-hmm.

   9. JBJeff Berman6:56

      It's, it's, "Okay, I have the idea, but I don't have the resources personally. I can't afford to go spend a year not taking a salary." How did you even figure out who to go talk to, h- what to ask for?

   10. AWAmy Webb7:08

       Um, I think this is actually pretty important for this audience.

   11. JBJeff Berman7:11

       Yeah.

   12. AWAmy Webb7:12

       I run across so many founders right now whose... And, and I'm sure you already know what I'm gonna say 'cause you're smiling. I run ac- across way too many people whose sole, whose sole desire is to exit.

   13. JBJeff Berman7:23

       Mm-hmm.

   14. AWAmy Webb7:23

       And if your, if your desire in life is to exit, then you should be doing something else-

   15. JBJeff Berman7:29

       Mm-hmm

   16. AWAmy Webb7:29

       ... because your motivation is in the wrong spot. Um, and that means, uh, you're gonna be making decisions that are never in the best interests of the one, the one great thing that must be created. Your motivation is always gonna be making a pitch deck, getting to the right VC, getting to the right private equity guy so that you, so that you c- you know, whatever, so that you can get that exit done. You know, that's a, that seems to me like a terrible way to go through life.

4. 7:54 – 19:09

   The three technologies that will shape the future

   1. JBJeff Berman7:54

      So a- among the things that you do to shape public discourse but also to market your work is you publish.

   2. AWAmy Webb8:01

      Mm-hmm.

   3. JBJeff Berman8:02

      You have a paper that just came out.

   4. AWAmy Webb8:03

      Yep.

   5. JBJeff Berman8:04

      Uh, can you tell us about the paper?

   6. AWAmy Webb8:06

      Sure. So, um, everybody is talking about artificial intelligence.

   7. JBJeff Berman8:11

      Really?

   8. AWAmy Webb8:11

      I'm so happy to hear that. I don't know if you've heard it before.

   9. JBJeff Berman8:13

      Uh, no. It doesn't come up anywhere.

   10. AWAmy Webb8:14

       Um, nope. Right. So suddenly, a decade later than they should have been talking about it, everybody's finally, like, aware of AI. Um, and they're certainly talking a lot about GPT.

   11. JBJeff Berman8:26

       Mm-hmm.

   12. AWAmy Webb8:27

       There's actually a different GPT that's very important. Um, that GPT is a general purpose technology, and I bring that up because, um, it turns out that artificial intelligence, while important, is actually not the only technology shaping the future. There are two others. Um, and if you were to look at each one in a silo, you could start mapping productivity, you could start mapping impact on GDP and things like that. But, um, most businesses, most governments would discount a lot of what's happening because it feels too far away, so, j- j- which is the same story of what happened to AI.

   13. JBJeff Berman9:03

       Mm-hmm.

   14. AWAmy Webb9:03

       So it turns out in the course of our research, um, artificial intelligence is a general purpose technology, which is defined as, um, you know, something that has a profound and lasting impact on the economy. The engine is a general purpose technology.

   15. JBJeff Berman9:19

       Mm-hmm.

   16. AWAmy Webb9:19

       Uh, electricity, you know, the internet, and so artificial intelligence qualifies similarly. Okay. There's two others. Uh, it's, uh, advanced sensor technology-

   17. JBJeff Berman9:32

       Mm-hmm

   18. AWAmy Webb9:32

       ... and biotechnology.

   19. JBJeff Berman9:34

       Mm-hmm.

   20. AWAmy Webb9:35

       Um, and if you look, if you, if you ca- if you look at them and the impact and, and think about them as platforms, we're starting to s- to see some of the same patterns. The reason that all of this matters is because you may not think, you know, you might be a investment banker or have a digital media company and not think biotech has anything at all to do with you.

   21. JBJeff Berman9:57

       Yeah.

   22. AWAmy Webb9:57

       It does. Um, but individually, these, these groupings of technologies, these general purpose technologies aren't important. It's the convergence-

   23. JBJeff Berman10:05

       Mm

   24. AWAmy Webb10:05

       ... we discovered that matters, and what's happening is, um, improvements in one begets improvements in the other, so there's this sort of flywheel effect. Um-

   25. JBJeff Berman10:15

       Before we get into the convergence-

   26. AWAmy Webb10:17

       Yep

   27. JBJeff Berman10:17

       ... I'm gonna be Denzel Washington from the movie Philadelphia-

   28. AWAmy Webb10:20

       Mm-hmm

   29. JBJeff Berman10:20

       ... and ask you to explain the biotech and the sensors-

   30. AWAmy Webb10:24

       Sure
5. 19:09 – 20:39

   How to act on future developments today

   1. AWAmy Webb19:09

      could be.

   2. JBJeff Berman19:09

      We have a broad range of audience, a lot of early stage founders, and a lot of people who work at big companies who, um, are or aspire to be entrepreneurs. Um, uh, and I, I- I'm imagining them listening to you and going and reading your paper and then trying to figure out, "What do I do with this?"

   3. AWAmy Webb19:29

      Mm-hmm.

   4. JBJeff Berman19:30

      What's your advice to, to them about w- how would they, how do, how do they take what you're putting out there and actually make it actionable?

   5. AWAmy Webb19:36

      So there, there is, um, a framework that can be used within an organization to start tracking convergences and also to sort of benchmark yourselves. But, um, being aware of the technology super cycle isn't enough. You have to start developing capabilities in foresight.

   6. JBJeff Berman19:54

      Mm-hmm.

   7. AWAmy Webb19:55

      Um, having the idea isn't enough because the idea can be wrong or can be influenced by bias or, um, recency f-

   8. JBJeff Berman20:03

      Mm-hmm

   9. AWAmy Webb20:03

      ... you know, um, phenomena. You, you need to make sure that you're heading in a good direction.

   10. JBJeff Berman20:11

       Mm-hmm.

   11. AWAmy Webb20:11

       So for that, it's a matter of tracking signals, um, knowing the difference between what's a trend and what's trendy.

   12. JBJeff Berman20:18

       Mm-hmm.

   13. AWAmy Webb20:19

       Um, uh, opening yourselves up to uncertainty.

   14. JBJeff Berman20:22

       Mm-hmm.

   15. AWAmy Webb20:23

       Uh, which means what are all of the things that you yourself cannot contr- your organization can't control?

   16. JBJeff Berman20:28

       Mm-hmm.

   17. AWAmy Webb20:29

       Signals and trends are what we can know. Um, uncertainties are what we cannot know.

   18. JBJeff Berman20:34

       Mm-hmm.

   19. AWAmy Webb20:35

       And then using that information to map out scenarios.

   20. JBJeff Berman20:38

       Yeah.

6. 20:39 – 26:02

   Using storytelling to convey complex issues

   1. AWAmy Webb20:39

      And-

   2. JBJeff Berman20:39

      And th- there are a lot of companies out there that make a ton of money-

   3. AWAmy Webb20:43

      Mm-hmm

   4. JBJeff Berman20:43

      ... that have been making a ton of money for a long time. They do things the way they do them.

   5. AWAmy Webb20:47

      Yep.

   6. JBJeff Berman20:47

      They evolve really incrementally, and-

   7. AWAmy Webb20:51

      Yes, we, we know some of those. [laughs]

   8. JBJeff Berman20:53

      Right, and you, and you were in it as a journalist-

   9. AWAmy Webb20:55

      Yeah

   10. JBJeff Berman20:55

       ... banging your head against the wall.

   11. AWAmy Webb20:56

       Yeah, yeah.

   12. JBJeff Berman20:56

       Why won't anyone pay attention to what's coming-

   13. AWAmy Webb20:58

       Yeah

   14. JBJeff Berman20:58

       ... and even have the conversation? Um, what have you found to be effective in moving leaders who are stuck in the old way of doing things to, to open the door to, to your way of thinking?

   15. AWAmy Webb21:09

       So let's go back to Herman Kahn.

   16. JBJeff Berman21:11

       Uh-huh.

   17. AWAmy Webb21:11

       So Herman Kahn was early days at RAND Corporation, being tasked with, um, helping advise the US military, it was the Air- Air Force specifically, on, uh, w- how to make decisions during the Cold War. So he had all of, all of this data, and at that point, it was, uh, what, what, what his colleagues were doing was saying, "Well, you've got a 90% chance of this and a 20% chance of that," and, uh, and these were sort of probabilistic mathematical outlooks that bored everybody to tears. Herman Kahn decided to do something different.

   18. JBJeff Berman21:49

       Mm.

   19. AWAmy Webb21:50

       He imagined what would happen a- in the aftermath of dropping a nuclear bomb. Not like, "Here's how the world..." Like, "It'll destroy 20, you know, all these homes, and all these people will die." Not that. What would it look like, let's say, a year afterwards? And so he started telling these stories that were so visceral.

   20. JBJeff Berman22:11

       Mm.

   21. AWAmy Webb22:11

       Every milk carton in every school child's lunch will have a list of how much radiation is in that, you know, milk container and how much you can, you know, and h- here's how to keep track, you know, using arithmetic-

   22. JBJeff Berman22:25

       Mm-hmm

   23. AWAmy Webb22:26

       ... of how much radiation you've had.

   24. JBJeff Berman22:27

       Your recommended daily allowance-

   25. AWAmy Webb22:28

       That's right

   26. JBJeff Berman22:29

       ... of radiation.

   27. AWAmy Webb22:29

       These were, so these were stories that were immediately understandable and relevant-

   28. JBJeff Berman22:36

       Mm-hmm

   29. AWAmy Webb22:36

       ... to the, you know, the, his end consumer, who were military leaders, right?

   30. JBJeff Berman22:41

       Mm-hmm.
7. 26:02 – 31:13

   Should the government regulate AI?

   1. JBJeff Berman26:02

      thread, um, uh, I got my start in the private sector of MySpace. Um, uh, suffice to say, super optimistic at the time about the power of social media, the doc- democratization, access. Everyone's got a platform, everyone's got a voice. Um, net-net, hasn't been great for the world. Um, there's so many reasons to be optimistic about not just AI, but the convergence that you're talking about, um, and in the wrong hands, this is dangerous.

   2. AWAmy Webb26:34

      Mm-hmm.

   3. JBJeff Berman26:34

      So, and some of those wrong hands are actually well-intentioned, but are going to do things that just have foreseeable consequences.

   4. AWAmy Webb26:42

      Mm-hmm.

   5. JBJeff Berman26:43

      What's government's role in regulating this?

   6. AWAmy Webb26:47

      So this may come as a surprise to you. Um, I don't think regulation is the right way, and I-- this is a tough pill to swallow, so let me try to explain what I mean by this. Um, if you use the heavy hand of regulation, and we've already seen this in Europe, uh, you don't get compliance, you get lawsuits.

   7. JBJeff Berman27:10

      Mm-hmm.

   8. AWAmy Webb27:10

      And part of the problem with regulation is that it's inherently a reaction to something that's already happened from my point of view.

   9. JBJeff Berman27:18

      Historically, yes.

   10. AWAmy Webb27:19

       Okay.

   11. JBJeff Berman27:19

       That's largely what it is. Fair.

   12. AWAmy Webb27:20

       So the problem is, especially with trying to regulate using traditional mechanisms for regulation, uh, traditional mechanisms that we have for regulation, the problem is that we don't entirely know how things are going to evolve. So I'm very good at this, right? My team and I, I've got a team of 20 people, this is all we do, we are the best at it, but even we cannot tell you exactly what the world looks like 10 years from now.

   13. JBJeff Berman27:46

       Yeah.

   14. AWAmy Webb27:47

       In order for regulations to, to work, you have to have enforcement mechanisms. You have to have continual monitoring. And, you know, you have to get it right or you're creating regulation, uh, language that's so broad that it's hard to implement or can be contested, right?

   15. JBJeff Berman28:02

       Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely.

   16. AWAmy Webb28:03

       I mean, you tell me, you validate if I'm-

   17. JBJeff Berman28:04

       Yeah, yeah

   18. AWAmy Webb28:05

       ... am I off on this?

   19. JBJeff Berman28:05

       100%. No, you're 100% right.

   20. AWAmy Webb28:06

       Okay.

   21. JBJeff Berman28:07

       Yeah.

   22. AWAmy Webb28:07

       So now we've got AI, which is tricky. Advanced sensors, we've got the CHIPS Act, maybe it'll stay, maybe it'll go, hard to tell, right?

   23. JBJeff Berman28:14

       Bipartisan.

   24. AWAmy Webb28:15

       Bipartisan. We'll see. But now we've got generative biology, and biology doesn't... You can't geo-fence biology.

   25. JBJeff Berman28:24

       Right.

   26. AWAmy Webb28:24

       Right? Biology tends to, like, continue on regardless of what you're gonna wanna do. Um, you also have, uh, different frameworks, different countries, different levels of what's okay, not okay, a- and strong economic incentives to play things forward. So isn't now a good time to entertain, to, to challenge our cherished beliefs and come up with alternatives to regulation that still compel companies to make the best choices on behalf of everybody?

   27. JBJeff Berman28:53

       I, I, I-

   28. AWAmy Webb28:53

       I think the answer is-

   29. JBJeff Berman28:53

       ... I love this

   30. AWAmy Webb28:54

       ... I'm not saying to get rid of the existing laws that govern. So in the Unit- this is also super tricky, and it would take us 37 hours to go through all of it, but in the United States, we govern product versus process. In other countries, the governance system is around the process for biology-
8. 31:13 – 33:27

   What Amy Webb is most excited about for 2025

   1. JBJeff Berman31:13

      Last question, um, uh, and I'm asking you this as a human, as much as a futurist, what are you most excited about for the year ahead?

   2. AWAmy Webb31:23

      Um, I'll give you two answers. Uh, one is a personal answer 'cause why not? Um, I got into something called Unbound, which is a very popular gravel race.

   3. JBJeff Berman31:36

      Gra- gravel ride in Kansas.

   4. AWAmy Webb31:37

      And, uh, you're absolutely right.

   5. JBJeff Berman31:39

      Uh-huh.

   6. AWAmy Webb31:39

      So, um, it's a bunch of crazy people, and so I'm, I'm doing it and I-

   7. JBJeff Berman31:42

      The 100 or the 250 or the-

   8. AWAmy Webb31:44

      Um, well, there's a 350

   9. JBJeff Berman31:45

      ... 350?

   10. AWAmy Webb31:46

       Uh, no, it's my first at-bat on this-

   11. JBJeff Berman31:48

       Yeah

   12. AWAmy Webb31:48

       ... so I'm gonna do the 50.

   13. JBJeff Berman31:49

       Good.

   14. AWAmy Webb31:49

       Uh, I do between 50 and 80 miles anyways-

   15. JBJeff Berman31:52

       Mm-hmm

   16. AWAmy Webb31:52

       ... um, every weekend, so the distance is not a thing. It's just, I haven't-- I don't know. I'll do the 50.

   17. JBJeff Berman31:56

       It's also a ride that's notorious. You can have bad weather.

   18. AWAmy Webb31:59

       Oh, yeah.

   19. JBJeff Berman32:00

       It can be brutal.

   20. AWAmy Webb32:00

       It's, uh, it's brutal. There's no support either.

   21. JBJeff Berman32:03

       Yeah. Yeah.

   22. AWAmy Webb32:03

       Um, so I'm-- but I will do the 100 if I get into the lottery again the f- the following year. This is my test ride.

   23. JBJeff Berman32:08

       I love this.

   24. AWAmy Webb32:09

       Um, so very, very excited about that. Uh, I would say the other thing I'm excited about is, um, we don't know what the future is yet. I mean, I, uh, I know it sounds kinda strange, but it's been a tough year. It's been a tough quarter, I think, for a lot of people, uh, for many, many different reasons. You know, the future is not pr- set in stone. I don't believe in fate or destiny or anything else like that. So the thing that gives me hope and the thing that I'm looking forward to is, in a lot of ways, um, it's like somebody took the chessboard and shook up all the pieces and now, now we get, we get to play a new game.

   25. JBJeff Berman32:45

       Mm-hmm.

   26. AWAmy Webb32:46

       And we'll see what happens, you know? Uh, if you make good strategic moves and you are thinking ahead, you're gonna be, next year at this point, looking back, feeling pretty great. So that is what makes me excited.

   27. JBJeff Berman32:59

       Can't think of a better place to wrap. Thanks for being on Masters of Scale.

   28. AWAmy Webb33:02

       Thank you.

   29. JBJeff Berman33:03

       Amy Webb's data-driven approach to making sense of our fast-changing world is both grounding and exhilarating. Her work provides an essential reminder that all of us inside businesses need to plan strategically for the future and be nimble enough to change when circumstances shift beneath our feet and our plans have to adjust accordingly. I'm Jeff Berman. Thank you for listening.

Episode duration: 33:36