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Live The Perfect Life, Using Data - Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz is a data scientist, economist and author. Imagine if you had access to millions of data points which tell you exactly what makes people happy, or makes people attracted to you, or what actually influences your child's outcomes in life, or the most reliable way to become rich. Well Seth did, and he wrote a book with all his findings in it. Expect to learn how you can conduct a survey to test different appearance styles to find out which is best for you, what personality traits result in the happiest relationships, which activities which make you most and least happy, the secret industries of people who become rich in America, how to hack luck using data and much more... Sponsors: Join the Modern Wisdom Community to connect with me & other listeners - https://modernwisdom.locals.com/ Get 2 weeks free access to Wondrium by going to https://www.wondrium.com/modernwisdom (discount automatically applied) Get 15% discount on Upgraded Formulas Test Kit at https://upgradedformulas.com/ (use code: MW15) Get a Free Sample Pack of all LMNT Flavours at https://www.drinklmnt.com/modernwisdom (discount automatically applied) Extra Stuff: Buy Don't Trust Your Gut - https://amzn.to/3PkKXyU Follow Seth on Twitter - https://twitter.com/SethS_D Get my free Reading List of 100 books to read before you die → https://chriswillx.com/books/ To support me on Patreon (thank you): https://www.patreon.com/modernwisdom #datascience #happiness #dating - 00:00 Intro 00:25 Seth’s New Book 04:25 How Appearance Influences Success 10:50 Insights from Dating Data 15:58 Physical Attractiveness & Happiness 24:22 Data on What Makes People Happy 38:00 Best Ways to Become Rich 44:58 Becoming a Successful Entrepreneur 52:00 How to Hack Luck 1:00:35 Data on Parenting 1:05:27 Where to Find Seth - Join the Modern Wisdom Community on Locals - https://modernwisdom.locals.com/ Listen to all episodes on audio: Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2MNqIgw Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2LSimPn - Get in touch in the comments below or head to... Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/chriswillx Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/chriswillx Email: https://chriswillx.com/contact/

Seth Stephens-DavidowitzguestChris Williamsonhost
May 16, 20221h 6mWatch on YouTube ↗

EVERY SPOKEN WORD

  1. 0:00 – 0:25

    Intro

    1. SS

      There definitely is a relationship between money and happiness, but it's a pretty small one. So, like for example, doubling your income consistently has about the effect, same effect on unhappiness. So, going from $40,000 to $80,000 a year has the same effect of going from $4 million to $8 million a year. (laughs) So basically, you're in this kind of treadmill where you need to keep on raising it by more and more to get a happiness boost.

  2. 0:25 – 4:25

    Seth’s New Book

    1. CW

      (wind blowing) Dude, your new book is absolutely awesome. This is, this is what people want someone that has access to loads of data to actually come up with and do. It's like, "Look, just, just tell me how I'm supposed to live my life, please."

    2. SS

      (laughs)

    3. CW

      "Can you just give me the Moneyball for my existence? That would be great. Thank you."

    4. SS

      Yeah. That was the motivation for the book is that I l- it's legitimately the book I wanted to read because I'm obsessed with self-help. Like, it's a little embarrassing 'cause I'm supposed to be such an intellectual, and my, my bookshelves are just filled with self-help, like how to get more powerful, when I was single, how to date better, how to be happier, how to whatever. And I'm so frustrated 'cause I read all these books and I'm like, "I just don't belie-..." I'm like, "This isn't really based on very much." You, you just, like, had an idea and you just told me. It's not, like, up to the rigorous standards that I'd come to expect from, uh, you know, data analysis. So I'm kinda just like, "Okay. What would actually be, like, what if you just explored all the areas of life and just said what the data tells you on it?" And like y- you know, like, uh, I've also noticed that a lot of self-help books when they say they're evidence-based or, like, science-based, somebody just has a point they wanna make and they just Google some study that confirms it. (laughs) And, like, that's not how I wrote this book. I literally had no idea what I was saying on any of these topics. I'm like, "I don't know what I'm saying about dating. I don't know what I'm saying about entrepreneurship. I don't know what I'm saying about happiness." And I'm just, like, gonna find the best studies and the best data and the best whatever, and then, like, here, uh, that's what I'm saying now. So, yeah.

    5. CW

      It does make other books feel, uh, in- inconsistent and insubstantial. You're like, "Hang on a second. What, what, what did you s- You just told me a nice story."

    6. SS

      (laughs)

    7. CW

      Like this is just, it's just a story that happens to fit some Eat, Pray, Love narrative that sounds nice.

    8. SS

      I think it's right. I thought it w- I think it's also a misconception that people just wanna read stories. Like, that's kind of a, a, an idea that they tell authors, you know? You just tell stories, tell stories, tell stories. And, like, everybody who's read my book so far, which I'm just gonna say the... You're supposed to say the name a lot, Don't Trust Your Gut, (laughs) so people will remember it. But, uh, (laughs) everyone who's read my book has been like, "I've been enthralled by the tables and the charts," (laughs) which is, like, not... Again, that's not usually what you put in self-help books, like tables and charts. Uh-

    9. CW

      Dude, seduced by a nice bar chart. That's what, that's what people needed-

    10. SS

      Yeah. (laughs) I thi-

    11. CW

      ... needed more of.

    12. SS

      I think people are like, people are, like, coming back with, like, very subtle points, like the, you know, uh, uh, th- where I'm like, "Wow, the closest everybody was reading the book was actually the tables and charts and, and, (laughs) and figures." And I'm like, "Oh." Uh, I think, I think there are misconceptions abouts, like the s- uh, about the audience for books and what they actually want, and I think people do want things that are a little meatier and a little more substantial and, like, a little more, you know, data-driven, so.

    13. CW

      I think a big reason for that is because it is quite counter to much of what gets put out there. There's a guy called Steven Kotler who runs the Flow Research Collective, and he looks at the, um, science of getting your body into a flow state, but he looks at it from a biological level, right?

    14. SS

      Yeah.

    15. CW

      This isn't a philosophical level. This isn't how it contributes to your meaning. It's what is the actual brain wave state you're supposed to be in? What does this mean for your heart rate? What does this mean for your respiratory r- rate? What does this mean for your average body temperature? What are the exercises and the strategies that you can do to influence yourself to move you toward that?" So, and you're like, it felt, meaty is a really nice way to put it. You're reading this book and you're like, "Yeah, there's something firm for me to press up against here." And I think-

    16. SS

      Yeah.

    17. CW

      ... that, I, I think that finding something firm as in the data is a, a good place to, to look. So you decided off the back of said book to do a nerdy makeover, a data-driven-

    18. SS

      (laughs) Yeah.

    19. CW

      ... makeover.

    20. SS

      I'm not following the advice though because, uh, I'm too, I'm, I'm near-sighted, which I- well, near-sight is that you can't see far away. So yeah. (laughs) So I did this analysis.

  3. 4:25 – 10:50

    How Appearance Influences Success

    1. SS

      There's all this evidence, I didn't know about it until I started researching this book, on how much your looks influence your success in life. Uh, so, like, it's really depressing and dark. Like, they show pictures of two candidates, uh, y- you know, gubernatorial elections, senate candidates, and they're like, "Which one looks more competent?" And this research by this guy, Alex T- Todorov and others, and 70% of the elections they can predict just, just based on, like, the candidate who s- people said looked more competent wins. And it's just like, that is so depressing. Like, wha- like, (laughs) we're all in high school basically. We can't... (laughs) We've never escaped high school. And they've done studies like who rises to the top in the military. It's people who just look dominant. And there are like, oh, th- there have been studies that baby f- that, uh, people who look baby-faced, like, are more likely to get off their cri- like, not be convicted of the crime.

    2. CW

      You're kidding me.

    3. SS

      So I was like, "No. Yeah. No, not... Come on. Not that guy." (laughs)

    4. CW

      (laughs)

    5. SS

      And I'm just like, "Are you kidding me? You're..." I, I was reading this, I was getting, like, angrier and angrier, but then I'm like, "Wait a second. There was this other study where they said that the same person can be rated very differently based on, like, little changes they make." So I'm like, "Wait a second." Instead of just whining about how, like, you know, unfair it is, you gotta take advantage of this. You gotta, like, find your best look. And I, I use this tool, uh, yeah. It's a, the nerd... (laughs) probably the world's nerdiest makeover. Uh, FaceApp is this, like, app. Everyone can play around with it. You can kinda change around what happens when I have glasses, what happens when I have long hair, what happens when I have a beard, what happens when I have a mustache, goatee. You can just change everything about you.... and then I asked people to rate like how I look, how confident I looked in these different things. I used this service. The best way to do it now is a site I didn't know about, photofeeler.com. Anyone can do this. Like you can just match what I did. So you go to FaceApp, you create different versions of yourself. You go to photofeeler.com and you can get ratings on them, on how you look on various dimensions. And then for me, there were these like really clear patterns that everyone rated me way more confident when I had a beard and had glasses (laughs) . Uh, and it was just like stark... It was like striking the glass, anything... Uh, striking the day, and everything else I did, didn't matter. Like, oh, you can add like a, a smile. Uh, different smiles, no difference. Different types of glasses, no real difference. Like, uh, even when I shaved my head, it wasn't even that much worse (laughs) , uh, which I may be heading towards because I'm going bald.

    6. CW

      (laughs)

    7. SS

      So, so that was encouraging. I'm like, "Thank God." I'm like whatever like, uh, six on confidence and then with a shaved head, I'm like a two, um, then I'm really screwed because baldness is coming fast for me.

    8. CW

      (laughs)

    9. SS

      Uh, so... Or I guess if I... Based on that, then I would've gotten like a hair transplant, I guess. Uh, but I'm just like, oh, there are these two things, glasses and beard, and they're just the huge difference makers for me. Uh, so now I-

    10. CW

      Why did you want to... Why did you want to optimize for competence?

    11. SS

      Well, (laughs) I say because like atr- ... I, I, I tested a few of them and they were all, they're all pretty highly correlated to like... I said, now that I'm happily in a rela-... If I was single, I'd go attractiveness 100%. I think I didn't go for attractiveness too 'cause I was too scared of the results. I'm like, what happens if I put it in there and everyone's like, "You're a 0.1." I'm like, "Oh, God." (laughs) I'm gonna really get in my head. (laughs) Whereas like I'm confident, maybe like I'll do a little better. I look a little nerdy. Everyone will be like, "You're, you're confident." But I think, uh, you know, I, I did... I focused on competence more 'cause I'm in a rela-... Or happily in a relationship. I feel like I don't really need to win over, you know, people with attractiveness. And then I was talking to someone, uh, Steven Levitt, the co-author of Freakonomics, and I told him this and he's like, "No, no, that is your first mistake. You always need to keep the attractiveness high for your partner." (laughs) Don't get, don't s-... Don't get, uh, you know, lazy on the attractiveness front just 'cause you're in a relationship. Uh, but it was like... It was, it's very clear data. I really think everyone can do this. Like initially, I had to use these tools 'ca-... I didn't know about Photofeeler, I just found out about that recently. But literally, FaceApp plus Photofeeler, anybody could do what I did, like really, really simply. And Photofeeler also does a whole bunch of different traits. So they do competence, and smart, and like all kinds of different things. You get it back really quickly. So I bet you everybody will find out these little things like I did, like it's just beard and glasses are like the game changers for me, so.

    12. CW

      Oh, you think that's for everybody, that all of the women should have beard and glasses as well?

    13. SS

      No, no, no.

    14. CW

      That's just a universal panacea across the board that every woman get yourself a... (laughs)

    15. SS

      No, no, I think... No, I, I think the point is that it's like... The point is there are obviously gonna be individual variation. That's why you gotta do the study. So there are some people that are gonna do well. You know, I think glasses on and competence may be pretty close to universal. Uh, we are just so tricked by glasses (laughs) and like everybody just looks smarter when they have a pair of glasses on. Uh, but, uh, you know, but like beard, I think, there's something about my face that I think is just like a beard like kinda... I have like a full mouth, I think a beard kinda covers it. There are some like men particularly that beards are just like very good on. Like James Harden, the basketball player. I'm always like, "Why does this guy have this crazy beard?" And then I saw pictures before he had a beard and he's like missing a chin. I'm like, "Oh."

    16. CW

      Dude, have you seen... Do you know Khamzat Chimaev? Do you know who that is?

    17. SS

      No, I don't know.

    18. CW

      Uh, so he is one of these... Uh, he's an absolute animal in the middleweight division in the UFC. And this guy is... There's multiple series of videos talking about how he's a legitimate psychopath on YouTube with... And he's... Like, everyone loves him for the fact that he's just ready to go at all times. And if you want to go and have a laugh, google Khamzat Chimaev without a beard, and it is... He has... Missing a chin. There is no chin there.

    19. SS

      (laughs)

    20. CW

      It is, it is simply a beard growing out from his neck. And you're like, "Fuck, dude. (laughs) He's so much more intimidating with a beard than without one." So he's optimizing for intimidation, you were optimizing for competence.

    21. SS

      Competence.

    22. CW

      Absolutely fine.

    23. SS

      But when I did attractiveness, beard was... Got me a higher score as well. So I think there, there... Competence and attractiveness are very highly correlated. Uh, usually the things... Usually like a look is better on, on like every front. It's not like there's... You're, you're usually not trading off like, you know, o- one or the other. Usually like there's a look for you. I think it's pretty clear that glasses and, and beard is my, uh, is my look, uh, so.

  4. 10:50 – 15:58

    Insights from Dating Data

    1. SS

    2. CW

      What were the big lessons that you learned from data about being successful in dating then?

    3. SS

      (laughs) There are like a lot of different lessons. Uh, there... Okay, so one of them is from... I, I love this. P- people may have heard of it, but I... If you haven't, you need to know it. Uh, Christian Rudder wrote this excellent book, Dataclysm, and he made the point that the most successful daters are like... The, the very most successful daters are exactly who you'd expect. They're like Brad Pitt and Natalie Portman, just beautiful people, and they just get like... It's depressing how much better they do than the average person. Uh, like, uh, but then like there are these, there are these daters that do shockingly well, and they are people with extreme looks, like people who shave their head, like w- heterosexual women who shave their head, or have crazy glasses, or blue hair, all these things. And the point is, in dating, you wanna be polarizing. So if you're Brad Pitt or Natalie Portman, you just wanna be yourself and not scare anybody, just like play it very safe, let the goodies flood to you. But if you are not Natalie Portman or Brad Pitt, or you're not like conventionally the most attractive person, you gotta kinda lean into some extreme version of yourself and then...Some people will be totally turned off, but some people will be really into you. And that's kinda what's, that's all that matters. You just need some people who are really into you. And I kinda did that in my old life because I think it's not gonna surprise anybody that, (laughs) like, I'm pretty nerdy. I mean, anybody who read Don't Trust Your Gut? would be like, "This guy's pretty nerdy." Like, uh, there was this one study where they list the happy... They have a chart with the happy, how much happiness every activity gives people. And I literally ordered an iPhone case with that chart on it so I could look at the data when (laughs) I'm deciding what to do with things. (laughs) So I'm like the nerdiest... Like I'm, I'm maybe one of the nerdiest people, (laughs) you know, anybody's encountered. And I think when I was single, like a lot of nerds, I'm like, "Well, what do I do to..." You know, I'm heterosexual, to, you know, attract women? And I'm like, "Okay. Well, I gotta, you know, tone it down. Be less nerdy, uh, be... You know, like, you know, get rid of the glasses. (laughs) Get, get like, you know, stop talking about the charts and the tables and the math, and like, you know, learn... Talk more about, uh, what you're, you're, you're taught that, uh, the average woman is into." And I think the data suggests the exact opposite. Like, nerd it up. Go all in on who you are, and then you'll just be polarizing. But you don't... In dating, you don't wanna be like average to people. You wanna be like the extreme, something that's, uh, the most, the most appealing.

    4. CW

      Well, 'cause you're not optimizing for total area under the curve, are you?

    5. SS

      Yeah. No.

    6. CW

      You only need a couple of winners.

    7. SS

      And... Yeah, and exactly. And no, well, a co- I like how you think a couple of, of winners. (laughs)

    8. CW

      Well, you've got-

    9. SS

      It's like

    10. NA

      (laughs)

    11. CW

      ... you've gotta have a variety, right?

    12. SS

      ... all your

    13. NA

      Uh-huh.

    14. SS

      ... partners.

    15. CW

      (laughs)

    16. SS

      I'm monogamous, so I was just looking for one winner. But (laughs) , uh, but I... You know, and my, uh, girlfriend literally she was, uh, talking to her friends and they're like, "What's your type?" And everyone's going through their type, like tall, dark, and handsome, this, that. And she's like, "My type is nerdy." (laughs) Like, that was her type. And she's not even that nerdy herself. Her type was nerdy, and then, you know... And here I am. If I had not played off my nerdiness, I wouldn't have, have had a chance. And I think the, the thing that... The other big dating thing is you've gotta put yourself out there way more. Uh, so they've done these studies on like what happens when people of different attractiveness or desirability ratings message someone else on a, on an online dating site. So like what happens when a one messages a ten on an online dating site? And before I saw the data, I'm like, "This is a bloodbath. This is..." Like a one asking out of ten, I mean, or messaging ten, we're talking about like a one in a million, a one in a billion, like come on. Like that, that's not gonna happen. And the data says for a heterosexual man, one asking out a heterosexual ten, it's like 14%. And for a heterosexual woman asking out, uh, a one ask going after a heterosexual man, it's like 30%. So like when you actually do the math, the key to getting like if you, if you wanna date out of your league, which I don't necessarily recommend, 'cause I also have a section how physical, conventional attraction is the most overvalued thing in the, in the dating market. But let's be honest, everybody's trying to... (laughs) Like, everybody is curious how can I date someone who's way more beautiful or way more desirable than me? And I think it's a combination of being an extreme version of yourself and then asking tons of people out. Uh, because like if you have a 14% chance on one go, then you actually do the math, if you ask like 30 people out, you have like a 98% chance. So like all you gotta do is just keep on going after it, and a lot of people are gonna be like, "No, no, no, no, no." And eventually, (smacks lips) uh, you're gonna get your, your yes. And then there... Yeah. There, there are other things. I could keep

  5. 15:58 – 24:22

    Physical Attractiveness & Happiness

    1. SS

      going. There are lots of things.

    2. CW

      But what, what was the insight around physical attractiveness and happiness?

    3. SS

      Yeah. So they've done studies of like 11,000 couples and they tried to predict what, uh, d- what predicts romantic happiness. So Samantha Joel led the, led this study. Uh, and it's like the big... It's like a revolutionary study of romantic happiness. They've got... They use machine learning models. There were 86 scientists s- studying it. Uh, like 11,000 couples. They had hundreds of variables, like anything you could s- could consider a test. And the first thing is it's very hard in general to predict who's happy. Like the predictive models are just way worse than you might imagine. It's not like, uh, predicting, I don't know, predicting like the weather tomorrow or something. It's like predicting the weather in like three years. (laughs) Like it's, it's, it's harder than you'd, than you'd guess. But that said, the things that ma- that do have at least some predictive power, whether, uh, whether I'm happy with someone else, whether a particular person can have someone else, the qualities of the other person that seem to have some predictive power are like these psychological variables, so secure attachment style, growth mindset, conscientiousness, satisfaction with life, uh, kind of like good psychological variables. And the things that don't have, that have like basically no predictive power are a lot of superficial things, so conventional attractiveness, uh, the height of your partner, uh, the occup- the particular occupation of your partner, uh, many things like that. And...

    4. CW

      So all of the-

    5. SS

      Yeah, I think-

    6. CW

      ... things that online apps-

    7. SS

      ... that we care-

    8. CW

      ... optimize for on the front end.

    9. SS

      Yeah.

    10. CW

      Yeah.

    11. SS

      Yeah. (laughs) So like, so yeah. So it, it... I think like the ma- the major insight from the data on, on dating and romance is there's just a total disconnect between what people are trying to... Like what people are swiping for or trying to, uh, date and what actually makes people happy. Uh, you know, will people change based on knowing that? I don't know. Uh, I think it may be coded in our DNA that we're drawn to like beauty and, you know, height and status, and uh... But (laughs) like if it... If you can, I really do recommend, uh, overruling some of those instincts, because they're really not a path, uh, to long-term happiness. And...Like, the other thing is- you have to think is that the competition for these traits is so enormous that like even if you win over someone, like if you, if you win over someone who is this, you know, great beauty or a woman, everybody woman's, they're... I think the data is 85% of women, or I- I don't remember the exact number, have like six foot or above on Bumble or... Whatever it is, it's some insane number that-

    12. CW

      Which I think is only 14% of men in the US.

    13. SS

      Yeah. (laughs) Yeah. And it's like- and like, uh... So, the competition for these people are ro- are- is ferocious and you have to think that if you... First of all, if you try to date these people, you may spend a huge percent of your life single and complaining that you're single. Like, I think a lot of people who are perpetually single, they're trying to date the small number of people that everybody's trying to date. Uh, and number two, if you do win them over, you may find that they are... like, that there's a reason that they were single even though they have all these traits that everybody's desiring, so maybe their psychological traits are a little bit (laughs) uh, subpar and they really-

    14. CW

      Well, I would love to see, I would love to see the, um, physical characteristics mapped with the psychological traits. You know, what are the correlates between are taller people, on average, more conscientious or more industrious or-

    15. SS

      Oh, yeah.

    16. CW

      ... more balanced, 'cause that would be fascinating to see 'cause it, it could be, it actually could be that in order to be with someone who's hot, you need to sacrifice being with someone who's psychologically... I mean, it's probably not likely, right? They're probably pretty just s- uh, randomly spread.

    17. SS

      But-

    18. CW

      But that could be the case.

    19. SS

      I think if you're not hot and you wanna date someone hot, then you probably-

    20. CW

      (laughs)

    21. SS

      ... do have to sacrifice-

    22. CW

      (laughs) Yeah. Well, so-

    23. SS

      You know, if you're like- if you're hot yourself, then you're probably like, okay, you're pro- you know, it's probably- it's somewhat of a market. Uh, you're probably in- in better- in better shape there.

    24. CW

      You can always, uh, date across and down. Yeah. Well, I think the interesting thing there is what- what you're kind of saying is similar to what John Berger says in, uh, Make The First Move, where it's- it's- it's not lowering your standards, it's changing what your standards consist of. Because what you're saying is that what you think your standards should be aren't what they should be. You're optimizing for the wrong parameters. What you're optimizing for is something like height and job title and a bunch of things which aren't going to impact the thing that you ultimately want, which is long-term relationship happiness. What you need to do is reset that, and by doing that, you actually open up an entire new market which is less competitive, potentially untapped, and significantly more linear between where you are and where you want to be in terms of happiness.

    25. SS

      Yeah, but nobody wants to hear that advice. (laughs) They just wanna be like-

    26. CW

      No, it's shit, it's shit dating advice. How do I get the hot person?

    27. SS

      Yeah. (laughs)

    28. CW

      So, it's how do I get, how do I get the fitting?

    29. SS

      Which I told you, the way to get the hot person is to be an extreme version of yourself and ask out lots of people. And the on- oh, the other thing I didn't say is take advantage of similarity. So, uh, people are incredibly drawn, th- this is also shown in da- in, uh, dating apps, to people who are similar to themselves, like on every trait you can imagine. So race, uh, people are drawn to the people who are similar to themselves. Uh, religion, uh, like high- height, height to some degree. Uh, even like college, people don't just wanna date someone of a similar education level. They like show a bonus to someone who went to th- to their exact same university. Uh, even if it's like relative to someone in a sim- so similar ranked university, uh, that, you know, there- there's... And then, oh, my favorite example of this is we're 11.3% more likely on online dating apps to match with someone who shares our initials, uh, which is so ridiculous. Like, come on. Initials, like (laughs) sharing your initials is not the path to long-term happiness. But... So th- so I think there's a lot of irrationality in that, but you can take advantage of that, in that tri- like if s- if you share your initials with someone, definitely ask them out 'cause you have this bonus. (laughs)

    30. CW

      Oh, right, you've got like the multiplier, that's the 11.4% multiplier-

  6. 24:22 – 38:00

    Data on What Makes People Happy

    1. SS

      of them.

    2. CW

      (laughs) What about what makes people happy then? You looked at that.

    3. SS

      Yeah. So, (laughs) uh, what makes people happy, I've, I've, I ... There's one- I, I read like a thousand studies on happiness and a lot of them, even f- ones that are really famous, um, like, these studies aren't that good. They, they, like, interview like a hundred undergraduate students and they're like, "So what makes you happy?" I'm like, like, "How, how should I know that these hundred undergrad students are anything like anybody else?" You, you're not, like, doing experiments. It just was very underwhelming. But there are these new projects which are really cool, they're called experience sampling projects, and they basically ping people on their smartphones and they say, "Who, what are you doing, who are you with, and how happy are you?" And they built a dataset of like three billion happy points. The biggest one, Mappiness, George McCharen and Susana Mraado, three million happy, uh, data points. And there are all these cool sites that I get so excited 'cause I just, as I said, very, very nerdy. So I'd read one of these studies, they were like people are happier, the same person does the same activities, the same people are happier when they're in nature by a lake or they're happier when their environment is beautiful or they're happiest going for a hike, or having sex is the number one (laughs) happy activity. And I'm kinda like ... I was telling my friends this 'cause I was working on the, the chapter and I'm like, you know, "Did you hear about this cool study?" And they're like, "Do we need scientists to tell us this?" (laughs) Like, th- that's so obvious, like, all these things that you're saying are painfully obvious. And I think there's profundity in the obviousness of the research on happiness, uh, which is that the things that make you happy, like if you look, I have the happiness activity chart from Alex Bryson and George McCharen, uh, in one of my ... And that's what I s- recommend people get as an iPhone case or hang it on your wall or whatever. And you look at that chart, it's almost like a chart from our hunter-gatherer days. (laughs) It's like (laughs) people are h- happy, like, you know, yeah, ha- having sex, taking walks, hunting and fishing, (laughs) uh, gardening, like, just like these very outdoors, simple activities. And the things that are really low are these, like, very modern things like waiting on a line, (laughs) uh, dealing with a bureaucracy, working, uh, uh, internet, social media, very, very low, computer games, really, really low. When you actually ping people how happy are they, they rank very low. So I think it's good to keep in mind, like, the simplicity of the things that make people happy. And if you're not happy, uh ... Oh, I, I end the book, I say, "What's the data-driven answer to life, uh, based on these three billion, you know, happiness points and, and al- and all this, this new data?" And I go, "The data-driven answer to life is to be with your love on an 80 degree and sunny day overlooking a beautiful body of water having sex." (laughs)

    4. CW

      (laughs)

    5. SS

      I'm like, which is, okay, not rocket science. It's not like they've, you know, scientists have found some, like, gel you put on yourself or some website you visit that's, like, the cure to happiness. It's these very old-fashioned simple things. And I do recommend to people who are not happy, like, think about how far your life is from that, those simple things that, from the data-driven answer to life. So, like, how, how much time are you spending in nature? How much time are you spending o- on the internet in comparison? Uh, how much time are you spending with ... The people that make people happy are friends and romantic partners and, like, everybody else just doesn't make you happy. So how much time are you spending-

    6. CW

      You had a, you, you had a list of underrated activities, the things that tend to make people happier than they predict.

    7. SS

      Yeah, yeah. Yeah.

    8. CW

      Exhibitions, museums, libraries, sports and exercise, drinking alcohol, gardening, and shopping or errands. (laughs) And then the overrated-

    9. SS

      Yeah.

    10. CW

      ... activities that make people less happy than they think, sleeping, resting, relaxing, computer games, watching TV, eating, and browsing the internet. I'm surprised, and I- I was really surprised when I looked at the list of activities, that playing with pets wasn't higher. It's like maybe 15, I think. But dude, if you put a dog in this room, I'm not doing anything for the rest of the day. Like, that's me-

    11. SS

      (laughs)

    12. CW

      That's me and the dog. Someone, "Oh, you wanna have some sex?" It's like, "No, sorry, I'm with the dog at the moment." So again, there's individual variation in this.

    13. SS

      Wait, having ... Ha, it wasn't having sex.

    14. CW

      H- Having sex with the per- No, don't do that.

    15. SS

      Okay. (laughs) Fine.

    16. CW

      So, um, drinking alcohol was an interesting one, and I think that you talk about this. It's not necessarily just about what the activity does, but it's about what you're doing while you're in the activity, right?

    17. SS

      Yeah.

    18. CW

      So drinking alcohol is often associated, it's, uh, socializing, you're spending time with friends, you're having a conversation, maybe you're also at a show or a comedy event or watching a gig or something like that.

    19. SS

      Yeah, I mean, drinking alcohol, w- what you're getting with the pet example is there probably is individual variation in these and you don't have to ... Although I think a danger with happiness is we exaggerate how much individual variation there is. So there have been studies where they be- they've compared introverts and extroverts and they say how much happier they are when they're by themselves or with other people, and both introverts and int- extroverts get the exact same boost from being with other people than being by themselves. Even though if you ask introverts, they're like, "Yeah, yeah, you know, I really like being by myself. I really like being by myself." So I think there's a danger. Like I'd, I'd be, I'd be a little wary if I were you. Like, I'd ask you to actually track your happiness and see if you're getting as much happiness from pets as you might think, because I think we do tell ourself these stories, tell ourselves these stories that are not always correct and, and that we're, like, unique. And, uh, so I, I, I, I don't know. I've, I mean, yeah. I, I think there's also different times then with pets. So sometimes, like, if you're just, like, you know, ru- like, uh, yeah, like petting them, playing catch with them, that's one thing. If you're cleaning up their crap, (laughs) -

    20. CW

      Well, you've got, it's-

    21. SS

      ... uh, that's probably a less-

    22. CW

      ... it's gotta be spread across time, right? One thing that I thought that was interesting, is there a tension between happiness and meaning? So there's this Roy Baumeister study, uh, p- paper that you've probably read about the tension that you have between these two different things, and there's a lot of things that we can do in the moment which makes us feel happy, sort of more on the hedonic side, but long term doesn't necessarily create meaning. Did you think about this?

    23. SS

      I did. Like, I think, uh, yeah, you know, like for example, work scores very low on happiness, and I think, you know, I don't know the answer from that is just quit your job and, you know-

    24. CW

      Live in nature.

    25. SS

      ... or, or, okay, so live in, yeah, I don't thi- I don't, and, and, you know, the, the study that I, that I referenced in Mappiness, uh, isn't following people over three years and being like, you know, "They're, you- you see kinda the in the moment happiness, and you don't necessarily see as much the, uh, you know, the longterm things. I do think it's just, it's just, you can, I think from these studies, you just can nudge yourself a little bit, uh, in the direction of things that make people happy. That- that's kinda wise, without sacrificing everything that's meaningful to you. So don't, you know, uh, you know, if you, if you, if you read, uh, you know, my Don't Trust Your Gut or you read these studies, uh, I don't, and, and then, yeah, you immediately quit your job and move to a lake, like I'd be like, "That may be taking the advice a little too, (laughs) uh, seriously." I, you know, I'd, I'd think, think more clearly. But anybody who reads these studies and then the next weekend is deciding between sitting at home and playing computer games or going for a walk with your friends by the water and is kind of uncertain, like I'd really recommend you went with your friends on the walk by the water, uh, just based on the data, so...

    26. CW

      What did social media use do to people's happiness? You looked at that in depth.

    27. SS

      Yeah, yeah, so, so there, so of, in the Mappiness study, the single, there are 26 leisure activities. The single lowest scoring leisure activity is using social media, uh, which already says, "Wow, that's probably not so good for you." And there have been, there was a famous randomized controlled trial where they paid people to stop using Facebook. Le- uh, they randomly, uh, paid a group of people to stop using Facebook, and they reported an enormous decline in depressive symptoms. So I think there really is pretty, it's almost a cliché to say it, but there really is evidence that social media can make people miserable for the obvious reason that, uh, it's, makes you feel like crap about your life. (laughs) Uh, you, uh, you know, if, if you're seeing on Facebook like the curated version of everybody else's life, uh, I actually, in my first book, Everybody Lies, I talk a lot about that and the difference between like s- social media and real life and Google searches. And on, uh, social media, when people describe their husbands, it's, "My husband is the best, the greatest, so cute and adorable." And, and that's like public. Everyone's seeing it. And when it's on, when they're out searching my husband is, it's like, "My husband is a jerk, annoying, mean," (laughs) uh, like a totally different view of their age.

    28. CW

      Not having sex with me.

    29. SS

      Not having sex with me, yeah. (laughs) Uh, so, uh, there's, so like social media, like it's a cliché to say it, but it's just so true, it really is a dangerous, uh, game to play, uh, from, from a happiness perspective.

    30. CW

      Why do you think it is that we're so bad at working out what makes us happy?

  7. 38:00 – 44:58

    Best Ways to Become Rich

    1. CW

      weather. All right.

    2. SS

      Yeah. They-

    3. CW

      So talking about people that have stupid amounts of wealth, what's the best way to become rich?

    4. SS

      (laughs) So I actually ... There's this study I read. Again, most times I read a study, I'm just like, that's, like, I don't believe the study or I'm like, it's like th- they make these subtle points. You know, like, if, if you read any academic study, like, usually they're just, like, making these very subtle interactions, like, th- theoretical point that only the researcher would care about. But in case that you read is, uh, uh, sentence or study that kind of blows your mind, and I was reading this study, it was from the entire universe of taxpayers, American taxpayers, and they analyzed who's in the top 0.1%. So it's people making, uh, $1.5 million a year. So these are people approaching the level where you can actually just be happy with how much money (laughs) you have. (laughs) And they said that the typical rich American is the owner of a regional business such as an auto dealership or beverage distributor. And I read that, I was just like, "What?" Like, who thinks of an auto dealer owner? Like, auto dealers are just, like, these annoying, like, people with greasy suits who try to sell us, like, things we don't need. You're not really thinking of them as, like, rich people. And then beverage distributor, I didn't even know what that was. Uh, and (laughs) it turns out that, uh ... So, like, the, the, the likely ... So there are a couple of voices. One is you have to own something to get rich by and large. So, like, if you look at the richest Americans, members of the top 0.1%, I think about 84% of them are making their money primarily by owning something, not by paying paid a salary. So there are some people who are just, like, get paid a ton of money by, by own-

    5. CW

      Superstar lawyers, maybe, or stuff like that.

    6. SS

      Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, you know, occasionally, but usually it's people who are owning something. Uh, and then you wanna have, like, some sort of a, a good ... And then you wanna go into a good field. So there all these fields that are awful. Uh, they've done studies of the quickest field, businesses, like, that go out of ... The, the busi- the field where the business goes out of, uh, business quickest. And, like, number one was record store. Uh, the average record store lasts 2.5 years, uh, in comparison to the average dentist office lasts 19.5 years. And basically the problem is everybody wants to own a record store. And there, there are all these movies made about record stores. Uh, (laughs) like, there have been a whole bunch of record store movies. I think probably every time some, that movie comes out, everyone's like, "I'm gonna quit my job and start a record store." And it's just, like, not a good path. And al- like, toy store is an awful business, clothing store is awful business. Uh, uh, uh, so there are some other ones. And ... But then there are things ... You basically want a local, you want a local monopoly where, like ... So auto dealerships, they're, they have, like, legal protections where you kinda have franchise rights to service a particular, uh, car company in your local region. (laughs) And that's a big advantage in business if you have legal protections about s- or against some random person coming in and stealing your business. And I think, now, so I think you can't really read this, this, that and say, "Okay, now I'll just start a local dealer. Or I, I'll, and now I'll just start an auto dealership," 'cause the whole point of auto dealerships is you're not allowed to start a new one and compete with these, these people. Uh, but, uh, I think you wanna be thinking that principle of, like, "What's my local monopoly that allows, like, that allows me to avoid someone just, you know, stealing my entire business or offering a lower price or, or anything?" And even I talk about in the book that, like, independent creatives may be a better bet than I had thought, uh, being kind of like what you're doing, like a podcast host (laughs) or what I'm doing, a writer. And it's, there are, like, a surpri- ... I was surprised by how many people are entering the top 1% or even the top 0.1% as independent creatives. It's still a long shot. Most people aren't. But it's not, like, as big a long shot as I thought. And I think the reason for that is you have a local monopoly. So, like, if, Chris, if, you know, as you're building your brand, you build a fan base. And then, like, everybody ... I could be on 20 different podcasts. Well, your fans are gonna listen to your podcast and watch ... I, I, you can ask me the same questions. You could be like ... Someone else could be, you know, should I play with my pet or, uh, have sex and, and I ... The, the exact same questions, but you're gonna have a- an edge because you've built a fan base. Uh, and similarly, you know, I've written some books and people ... I already have, like, people who bought, liked Everybody Lies, my first book, and now they're gonna give me kind of the benefit of the doubt and, uh, don't trust your guts. You have, you do have this kinda a little bit of a moat as a, uh, creative, uh, that-Like, eh, I think it's a better business than, like, pest control or something. (laughs)

    7. CW

      (laughs)

    8. SS

      You know, where, there-

    9. CW

      Or a record store.

    10. SS

      Y- yeah. Well, record stores, yeah. But, like, even, even some boring businesses like pest control, the data says, like, basically nobody's getting rich from pest control businesses. And the problem with being in the pest control business is you don't... You're... There's no way to build a local monopoly. Like, you're basically competing against everybody and everybody's just Googling for pest control. And you have to... Any profit you have, you're gonna give away in a- in ads on Google to try to get higher up on the list. Like, n- nobody's like... You know, there's no name in pest control or there's no, there's no legal protections.

    11. CW

      I really like Seth's-

    12. SS

      There's no nothing.

    13. CW

      ... Seth's Pest Control because of the personality that he brings when he's getting rid of my cockroaches.

    14. SS

      (laughs) Yeah. Nobody... Yeah, nobody... And, and, like, you don't even hav- have that many repeat customers anyway, so there's just, like, not...

    15. CW

      Yeah. Yeah.

    16. SS

      It's really hard to escape the perfect competition in that field. So, like, to escape per- perfect competition, you either need, like, a legal protect- a legal protection like auto dealerships have. You need a, like, some sort of personal contacts being, like, really deep in a field or you need, like, a fan base and a brand.

    17. CW

      Well, I think it... Yeah. It's a unique way to imprint a difficult-to-replicate competitive advantage.

    18. SS

      Yeah.

    19. CW

      And you see this with, uh, PTs. So, my old housemate, Lewis, is a PT, uh, and he moved, I think, to two or three different gyms in the time that he was living with me. And these gyms were three miles to one of them and then another five miles to a different one in s- around the city. And I was like, "Dude, there is n-" I- I felt really bad. I was like, "What if he loses all of his clients?" Tons of his clients stayed with him. Now, hang on a second. You're talking about someone maybe adding two hours a week onto their commute just to go and train with you two or three times? And people were prepared to go. Brand new facility, different gym, different place, different parking, different route, and they stuck with him because it's a very personal experience, right? People aren't... You're not just being competed out of the market with this very transactional sort of pest control, get rid of my cockroaches thing. It's something very, very specific. Uh, speaking of online coaching,

  8. 44:58 – 52:00

    Becoming a Successful Entrepreneur

    1. CW

      what was that analysis about the best way to sell a product online if you were doing, like-

    2. SS

      Oh, yeah. (laughs)

    3. CW

      ... a sem- a seminar or something?

    4. SS

      Yeah. They did an analysis of, like, uh, uh, is it called Amazon Live? Where they... Where people are kind of making a pitch to try to sell their product, and it was a really amazing study. They used artificial intelligence to translate all the pitches into, like, the facial expression. They, they analyzed the facial expression of everyone making their pitch, and they had all kinds of other data about the pitch, and they knew how much of the product actually sold. And they found that the best way to sell your product is basically a poker face. (laughs) So, like, if you're angry or, like, depressed or, like, sad or, like, you know, then, like, yeah, everyone's just like, "I don't wanna watch this person." But too many people selling their products have smiles, like these goofy smiles on their face, and are too excited, and that actually backfires. So there's, like, this sweet spot where you're not showing too much happiness or too much sadness, a poker face. Uh, I think they say, the authors of the study say, uh, having a poker face instead of a smile is about twice as valuable as free shipping. (laughs)

    5. CW

      (laughs)

    6. SS

      So, uh... Which is, which is kinda counterintuitive. You don't really think, like, uh... You know, I think everybody's instinct is be, like, really excited for what you have. And I- I think there, you know, the, the study didn't get into, like, the, the nitty-gritty. I'm sure if you were... Had the poker face for, like, an hour, everyone would be like, "Show me a smile. Like, lighten up, relax, show some happiness." But it does show the danger, that there is a danger in selling things of being too excited about your product and kind of being a little more even-keeled, uh, and, and honest can, uh, can help.

    7. CW

      What about some of the myths to do with entrepreneurial success?

    8. SS

      Oh, yeah. (laughs) So, entrepreneurial success, there's this famous idea that entrepreneurs are young. So like, Mark Zuckerberg started Facebook when he was 19. Uh, Steve Jobs was 20, started Apple. Uh, Bill Gates, 19 when he started Microsoft. These are kinda the most famous entrepreneurs in the world. And, uh, I think people think... Uh, they're also the most famous entrepreneurs featured in b- the media. So they've done studies of the entrepreneurs in magazines and, like, the median age is 27 or something. So people just love telling the stories of these young people. When you actually look at the data of the entire universe of entrepreneurs, uh, the average successful entrepreneur is 42. And the odds of a entrepreneur succeeding increase until the age of 60. Uh, they look... They're... Which shocks me. Like, you don't think of a 60-year-old. Like, that's the, the total opposite of a successful entrepreneur. And the other... And, like, what it turns out is there's pretty much a formula for being a successful entrepreneur. You just get really deep into the nitty-gritty of a field for many, many years and then you branch out on your own when you're ready. Uh, which again, goes a- against a lot of stereotypes. A lot of stereotypes are like, "Just come from the outside knowing nothing when you're e- 18." And it's not true. Like, if you wanna be an entrepreneur, the best path is, like, take it slow, under- learn about a field, work as an employee, prove your worth as an employee, and then, like, learn some... You'll learn something very particular about that field and you'll really know what to do, uh, w- when you're ready, so, uh-

    9. CW

      Well, yeah. It's, it's such a compelling narrative, that outsider's edge, right? The Elon Musk, he never did a thing before, so from first principles he's gonna do whatever. And you go, "Well, yeah, but the guys that Elon got to design batteries have probably-"

    10. SS

      Yeah.

    11. CW

      "... spent their entire lives designing batteries." You know?

    12. SS

      Yeah.

    13. CW

      He didn't get, he didn't get some dude that did woodwork for the last-

    14. SS

      (laughs) Yeah.

    15. CW

      ... for the last 20 years. And, uh-

    16. SS

      Yeah.

    17. CW

      ... you talk, you talk about, uh, Paul Graham as well and that... Uh, what is it, The Marginal, Marginal Edge or something as well?

    18. SS

      Yeah, yeah, yeah. Power of the Marginal.

    19. CW

      That's it.

    20. SS

      Paul Graham had this es- this essay, and I- I'm a huge Paul Graham fan, but he had this essay, like, there's an advantage to being a bad employee. Because if you're a good employee-... you're not gonna fit in, in entrepreneurship, and it's not true in the data at all. The best entrepreneurs, like, earn in the- in the 99.9th percentile of income before they start their business. (laughs) Uh, so, uh, like, I think a prob- a problem with understanding how the world works is, like, some ideas are almost too compelling that they fool us. Like, we want them to believe, we want to believe them too much, so everybody wants to believe that, you know, "Oh, tomorrow I can just, like, wake up and design a new car or, uh, you know, design some new chemical that's gonna do something really wild," or, uh, you know, there are all kinds of examples you could imagine and it's kinda like that's not really how the world works. (laughs) Uh, and it's, it's dangerous to think the world works there 'cause I think a lot of people screw up their lives, uh, you know, based on some of these ideas. Uh, you know, they're-

    21. CW

      That's ... It's much less compelling though, right? Think about how sticky some of these stories are. This- the stickiness of the story about the average age of a founder in ... uh, an entrepreneur in Silicon Valley is 27 and a half years old or something. Th- that's s- so much more worthy of being pushed around than it's your mid-40s 'cause that's what everybody would have thought. You talk about this. You say it's the, the counter-counterintuitive narrative.

    22. SS

      Yeah.

    23. CW

      And it's so bizarre. Think about the fact that the thing that everybody expects to be the case, work hard in one field, get unbelievable specific knowledge, then branch out on your own once you've got to the complete top, having been a very good employee, and wait, wait a long time until you've got tons of experience. Like, the fact that the media has managed (laughs) to convince us that that is now a revolutionary story-

    24. SS

      (laughs) Yeah.

    25. CW

      ... it's like w- w- we were the idiots.

    26. SS

      But- but- but, yeah, and I- I think, but I think, like, listeners to this podcast, like, you can overrule all that. Like, I think when people have seen that, they've been like, "Oh, yeah." Like, they've made different decisions based on that. And you can just look at these charts and it's like s- something about looking at these charts just clears away the noise a little bit, where I'm just like, "Okay, like now I, I know that I'm just being misled by the media, and I'm gonna just look at these charts and remind myself, uh, when I get these one-off stories that are, uh, you know, tr- like meant to confuse me and, and so sticky." So, uh, I think you can ... I- I agree that it's like, it's harder to get these ideas out, out there, but I think a lot of people have told me from reading that section that they are, like, adopting more of that mindset. They're not gonna quit their job tomorrow and try to do something they've never tried before. And some of them are using this in an optimistic way, where there are a lot of people who are 45 years old, they've been an employee their entire life, uh, and they've had success in that field but they're just like, "I'm too ... It's too late. Like, entrepreneurs are, you know, do it in their dorm room or-"

    27. CW

      20 years younger than me, yeah, exactly.

    28. SS

      Yeah, like, "How- how am I gonna compete against all these youngins?" And I think they'll be particularly drawn to th- this idea because now they can be like, "Well now, now I gotta think about do I wanna go off on my own and start my own business?"

  9. 52:00 – 1:00:35

    How to Hack Luck

    1. SS

    2. CW

      How can people hack luck?

    3. SS

      Uh ... (laughs) Yeah, so there are all these studies. The- the best way to learn about luck is the art world because the art world is so much luck. Like, there are all these p- like, these depressing studies of what it takes to, like, of like what- why a particular art- piece of art is really successful, and there's so much randomness in it. Uh, but there are also these patterns that allow people to kinda allow these random opportunities to, uh, come to them. So for example, there have been studies that the quantity of art, uh, o- of art someone makes is a massive predictor of how successful they are, so just putting a lot of work out in the world is like a- a- a massive predictor of success. And why is that? Well, because there's so much randomness in what particular work catches on, you just gotta kinda flood the market and let luck find you. Uh, you know, if it's- if- if there's a- if- if every piece ... of which piece wins is luck, then I wanna be the one with a thousand pieces, not 10 pieces, right? Because I have, uh, you know, 100 more opportunities to get lucky. Uh, and that's been found in many, many fields, this idea of kinda just putting more work into the world and allowing yourself to get more lucky, applying to more jobs, uh, asking more people out in dating. Like just, yeah, it's- it's a crapshoot, but when it's a crapshoot you want more lottery tickets. (laughs) Uh, and the other thing that's been found which is really cool, uh, in a study of a whole bunch of painters, (laughs) uh, they were trying to predict what painter mi- rises to the top, and they were like, "The biggest predictor by far is how they present their work, and the ones who don't make it present their work to the same place, the same gallery over and over again. And the ones who do, they're like bumblebees. They're just like constantly, they're just like traveling everywhere. You ... I could ... I'll present there, I'll present there, I'll present there, like anyone who will have them, they go and occasionally they just stumble on some big break. Uh, and that's pretty profound. Uh, I think a lot of people make the mistake of just, like not exposing themselves widely enough, uh, to w- with ... A- and exposing yourself widely can dramatically increase your chances of getting that lucky break.

    4. CW

      I was gonna say, what do you think is the lesson for people that aren't artists?

    5. SS

      I think it's, there's probably a lot of similarity in that, uh, the- the mistake of the artists who are presenting s- in the same gallery over and over again is they already didn't get the break there. So don't assume if you haven't gotten your break there that you're gonna get it next year or in two years, or three years. Uh, so kind of stagnating in a place where you're not rising or not ... where nothing much good is happening, uh, you gotta kind of, particularly when you're young, you gotta travel more widely, uh, to find, uh, to find a break I would say, would be the lesson I'd take from it. And (laughs) like traveling to places where you're more likely to get your break as well. Uh, you know, like, uh, m- many of the artists who didn't get their break were presenting in countries that ...... aren't known for discovering artists. And similarly, many, you know, computer, compute tech people aren't in Silicon Valley. That, that may be, you know, a mistake. Going to pl- going to the place where you're more likely to get a break I think can be, uh, very valuable.

    6. CW

      What was that thing that you learned about the Mona Lisa?

    7. SS

      Oh, yeah (laughs) . Th- th- the Mona Lisa, I didn't realize this, I read a book, Vanished Smile, that the Mona Lisa was just an ordinary painting, but then there was, like, this heist and, uh, everybody was trying to understand what happened, uh, why the Mona Lisa was stolen, and it was, like, a worldwide phenomenon. Uh, peop- th- like, the, people thought Pablo Picasso had stolen it, people thought J.P. Morgan had stolen it. It turned out to just be, like, a low-level employee had stolen it, it was underwhelming. But the heist gave it so much attention that now it was the most famous painting, so we ... Everyone thinks the Mona Lisa's the best painting, but it's not really, it's just happened to be, uh, the painting that, uh, got stolen. (laughs)

    8. CW

      Stolen in the right place at the right time.

    9. SS

      Yeah, but the point of that is, if you have 1,000 paintings, you have more chances for one of them to be stolen. (laughs) Uh, you know, like, like, it's, it's pretty, it's pretty clear that just working forever to get your one piece exactly right is not the best strategy. Having lots of pieces and then allowing one of them to get lucky is a better strategy.

    10. CW

      There's that famous, uh, photography class study that was done on this as well, right? That t- two groups were split up, one was told to take as many photos as they wanted and then to submit one at the end, the other group was told that they needed to work on one shot for the entirety of the course. When you compare them at the end, the group that's taken a ton of shots has just iterated so much more effectively. And, yeah, the, the learning by doing thing ties back into what we were saying before-

    11. SS

      Yeah.

    12. CW

      ... about working hard and deep, one particular field, sticking at it for a long time. Like, the un-sexy stuff. What was that thing? You looked at, um, how to become a good athlete if you don't have the genetics to be one.

    13. SS

      Oh, yeah. Yeah (laughs) . It was just, I, I was obsessed with sports. I still am obsessed with sports. But, uh, I was interested in, uh ... But I had no, I had no talent. Uh, n- I didn't have no talent, I was a, I, I rose to be an okay high school baseball player, but, uh, like, I, I didn't have ta- ... Uh, uh, it was also just a s- in a, in a county where there were no good baseball players and it was like-

    14. CW

      The lofty heights (laughs) -

    15. SS

      Yeah. N- like, it was-

    16. CW

      ... of a small town high school-

    17. SS

      I was very-

    18. CW

      ... base- baseball player.

    19. SS

      Yeah. I was very far from being a gre- a great player, but there's actually, uh (laughs) , there's actually an interesting way to think about, uh, genetics, the genetic edge in sports, which is, uh, like, if something's really genetic, there are lots of identical twins, because identical twins share 100% of their genes. Uh, so there are gonna be a lot more genet- uh, identical twins in that sport than even br- like, fraternal twins or just normal brothers or sisters. Uh, so, like, basketball is dominated by identical twins. I know it's kinda ... I'm a big Stanford basketball fan, and we, like, suck for 10 years, and then we recruit a set of identi- seven-foot identical twins (laughs) and we're great again. So it was the Collins twins first and then it was the Lopez twins. It's like (laughs) , it's, it's, it, it works predictably. Uh, it, it saves our, our, our basketball program. And, uh, all, in the cou- course of basketball, uh, they're, they're ... It's just, like, dominated, to a degree very, very few other sports are, uh, by identical twins, which shows that basketball's incredibly genetic, in part because height is one of the most genetic traits and each inch doubles your chances of making the NBA. Uh, l- which is really cool. Like, actually, like, a 6'1" person has twice the chance as a six-foot person, and then a 6'9" person has twice the chance as a six-eight person, a 7'2" person has twice the chance as a 7'1" person. Like, they're out the distribution, uh, you know.

    20. CW

      That's gotta tail off at some point, other else-

    21. SS

      Well, we don't kn- we don't know. Uh, there's not a big enough sample for, like, eight, eight-foot. It pr- yeah. It, it probably does, 'cause I think, like, beyond a certain point it's usually a disease which massively lowers your coordination, so like a thyroid problem, people, like, who are s- seven-five or above, frequently it's a, a, a gro- a thyroid alar- a thyroid issue that leads to that level of growth. Uh, but then there are certain sports, like, uh (laughs) , they're not as exciting as being a basketball player, but, like, equestrianism and diving, uh ... And I have a whole chart on them. But where, there li- there's, like, never, there have never been identical twin Olympic diving and equestrian athletes. And if you actually do the math, it's pretty clear that that means that the genetics just aren't that big a factor, uh, in those sports. Uh, which is why a lot of rich people, kind of, who've had, uh, kids like me who want to be athletes, they're like, "Yeah, go into g- equestrian." It's a-

    22. CW

      (laughs)

    23. SS

      ... uh, and you can become a great equestrian athlete. It's totally true. There's very little to it.

    24. CW

      We know, we know that you're not built for athletics, so let's try and-

    25. SS

      Yeah.

    26. CW

      ... weasel you into something.

    27. SS

      But, yeah. D- diving's an interesting one too, 'cause, uh, Adam Grant, uh, the professor at Wharton who's written wr- a lot of popular b- books, uh, he became a, a very talented diver. Uh, and his coaches told him exactly what the data says, that, like, if you're nerdy ... Uh, he wanted to be a basketball player and they were like, "You're not talented enough, but you are very disciplined and hardworking and passionate, uh, so diving's a good sport for you." (laughs) And the data totally, uh, you know, totally justifies that, that that's, uh, really where you wanna put your energy. (laughs)

    28. CW

      What did

  10. 1:00:35 – 1:05:27

    Data on Parenting

    1. CW

      you learn about parenting? That was so ... This was something that I'd s- I'd seen previously in a discussion, and then to have it brought up in the data again was so interesting.

    2. SS

      Yeah. So, uh, (laughs) the overall effects of parents are, like, ways less than everybody thinks. Uh, s- and the, the studies of that are twins and adoptees. So if you, like, see, you know, identical twins adopted by different parents, they turn out shockingly similar, and then, uh, uh, uh, and then, uh, people adop- uh, adopted to the same parents end up not that similar at all. But then, so, like, uh, so-Uh, parents in general matter very, very little, but there is evidence that the neighborhood you live in matters a lot. Uh, th- basically they've looked at tax records and, uh, compared kind- a- and people who grow up in certain neighborhoods just do way better. And they've done all this clever math to prove that it's really cause- causally certain neighborhoods are making them better. And the big, uh, predictor of that, interestingly, is the adults in that neighborhood. So like adults that fill out a lot of census forms. If a- if you like live on a block with adults that live o- fill out a lot of census forms, your kid's way more likely to have good outcomes. And you're kind of like, "What the hell does- wha- s- like that's the randomest thing in the world." It's basically like good responsible adults. Uh, similarly, if girls move to neighborhoods with lots of female scientists, they're more likely to become, uh, scientists themselves. Uh, so like one of the lessons I took from the data is you can outsource parenting a little bit. Like when you tell your kids to do something, they're just gonna probably rebel against you 'cause, you know, a lot of people think their parents are like the least cool people on the planet. But your friends, they're gonna think they're pretty cool (laughs) probably. Like if I think of my parents' friends, all of them, like yeah those are, you know, there were periods where I thought my- my dad was pathetic and the biggest loser and whatever, but his friends, I'm always like, "Yeah. Th- they're awesome." So basically you just gotta, you just gotta pick friends that you want your kids to turn out to be like and put them i- in front of your kids, uh, and then you may be shocked by how much of an impact, uh, these people are having on your kids.

    3. CW

      It's so interesting the fact that the people that you live next door to are potentially gonna have a bigger impact on your children than you do.

    4. SS

      Yeah. (laughs) Yeah. Yeah, it's weird. (laughs)

    5. CW

      It's wild.

    6. SS

      And so you don't feel like-

    7. CW

      And not even their kids, right? Not even their ... It's not ... Don't worry about-

    8. SS

      Yeah, yeah, yeah. Exactly.

    9. CW

      ... "Oh well, such-and-such's son is a, he's a bit of a naughty boy and he doesn't really listen in class." And it's like, "Yeah, but his dad's cool as fuck and he's a millionaire." You're like, "Just let little Timmy go and play with him a lot."

    10. SS

      Yeah. It reminds me of, I don't know if you saw the book, uh, if you've read the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad.

    11. CW

      Yeah, by Robert Kiyosaki.

    12. SS

      Uh, yeah, yeah. It's exactly that, that his life was transformed by meeting this guy who he thought was way cooler than his dad, uh-

    13. CW

      Could it not be like Cool Dad, Uncool Dad? That might just be it.

    14. SS

      Yeah. Yeah.

    15. CW

      (laughs)

    16. SS

      Uh, and yeah, and then, and then like that transformed his life that instead of kind of this traditional narrow path that he thought he was supposed to take of getting a lot of college degrees and like working for the government, he wanted to become an entrepreneur like his, uh, his rich dad, his friend's dad. So I didn't think about that. ............................

    17. CW

      Well, what about, what about if his dad had been the rich dad and his friend's dad had been the poor dad, Robert would have probably grown up to be poor 'cause he would have listened to the wrong person.

    18. SS

      Yeah. (laughs) Yeah, yeah, yeah. I- it's interesting to think about. I mean, that, yeah. I don't know. Th- yeah. It's, it, you can't exaggerate the extent of this. You know, some parents definitely do have big impacts on their kids, and sometimes kids do think their parents are really cool, but I think, uh, you know, that, I- I think the parents are polarizing figures for kids, whereas like the neighbors tend to be universally, uh, kind of cool. Like now even looking back on it, like the parents in my neighborhood who I know weren't cool, like when I was a kid I thought they were really cool and cooler than my dad. Like (laughs) , uh, you know, like one, one guy, he was just such a show-off. He wasn't even a good basketball player, but he'd just like constantly be dribbling the ball between his legs and doing like weird moves. And I'm like now looking back on it, I'm like, "That guy was pathetic, like trying to impress 10-year-olds with his terrible basketball moves." But at the time, I'm like, "This guy's amazing." Maybe that's why I wanted to be a basketball player, 'cause I grew up near this guy. (laughs)

    19. CW

      This lame basketball guy. What was it-

    20. SS

      (laughs)

    21. CW

      What was that thing about the odds of becoming a celebrity?

    22. SS

      Yeah. Just that, uh, there are more independent artists in the top 1% of earners than I would have guessed, uh, because it does offer this local monopoly. And trying to become an independent, like trying to be a podcast host or a writer or things like that, if you're young and you're willing to do the things that hack your, hack luck to your advantage, uh, may be not a crazy path. So, yeah.

  11. 1:05:27 – 1:06:19

    Where to Find Seth

    1. SS

    2. CW

      Seth Stevens-Davidowitz, ladies and gentlemen. If people want to keep up to date with what it is that you're doing, where should they go?

    3. SS

      Oh, definitely buy Don't Trust Your Gut, uh, and then, uh, my website is sethsd.com.

    4. CW

      I love-

    5. SS

      Yeah.

    6. CW

      ... it man. I appreciate your work. I like the fact that someone who has the, uh, data science chops to be able to ask all of the big questions that we want has decided to go and troll through, whatever, 1,000 academic papers and a ton of data to do it. The- the- the book's brilliant, everyone should go and ch- go and check it out. It'll be linked in the show notes below. Uh, and looking forward to seeing what you do next.

    7. SS

      Thanks, Chris.

    8. CW

      (upbeat music) What's happening people? Thank you very much for tuning in. If you enjoyed that episode, then press here for a selection of the best clips from the podcast over the last few weeks, and don't forget to subscribe. Peace.

Episode duration: 1:06:19

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