Modern WisdomThe Shocking Research On Sexuality They're Trying To Hide - Michael Bailey
CHAPTERS
- 0:00 – 2:35
Retraction fallout: why the paper was pulled and why it backfired
Bailey explains that his recent academic article was formally retracted, which he says is typically associated with fraud or major errors—but claims neither applies here. He argues the retraction was driven by political pressure, and that it produced a major Streisand effect with unusually high downloads and media attention.
- •Article retracted from Archives of Sexual Behavior; Bailey says no fraud/plagiarism/mistakes
- •Claims activist pressure influenced the publisher’s decision-making
- •Retraction framed as a ‘sham’ and ‘meaningless’ to the evidence presented
- •Streisand effect: ~100,000 downloads and significant press coverage
- •Bailey encourages people to read the paper despite the stamp
- 2:35 – 4:29
How to find the ‘forbidden’ open-access article (and what to search)
Chris asks where listeners can locate the retracted paper. Bailey notes it was published open access (no paywall) and provides specific search terms to find the Springer-hosted version.
- •Open-access publication funded to be freely readable
- •Retraction does not block access—just adds a ‘retracted’ watermark
- •Search suggestion: “Diaz Bailey ROGD”
- •Select the Springer link to read on the publisher site
- •Bailey treats the retraction label as a ‘badge of honor’
- 4:29 – 7:48
What the cancelled topic was: defining Rapid Onset Gender Dysphoria (ROGD)
Bailey introduces ROGD as a proposed explanation for the sharp rise in adolescent gender dysphoria, especially among girls with no childhood history of dysphoria. He describes a pattern involving prior mental health/social issues and peer/ideological influence leading to sudden identification and requests for transition-related interventions.
- •ROGD proposed to explain surge in cases over the past decade
- •Emphasis on adolescent girls with no earlier dysphoria indicators
- •Often preceded by mental health and social difficulties
- •Influence of progressive/ideological peer groups and ‘explanatory’ narratives
- •Escalation to demands for medical interventions (testosterone, mastectomy)
- 7:48 – 9:59
Inside the study: parent survey findings and reported outcomes after transition
Bailey summarizes his team’s survey of 1,655 parents who believed their children fit the ROGD pattern. He highlights reported temporal ordering (mental health issues preceding gender issues), associations with social/medical transition, and parents’ reports that social transition was followed by worsening wellbeing and family closeness.
- •Sample: 1,655 parents; ~75% of cases were girls
- •Parents reported mental health issues preceded gender concerns by ~4 years
- •Higher problem severity correlated with higher likelihood of social transition
- •Medical transition reported as rarer (~7%) vs social steps (~60%)
- •Parents reported children became less happy/less close and ‘decompensated’ after social transition
- 9:59 – 12:49
Why activists reject ROGD: the Littman precedent and ‘just believe them’ framework
Bailey situates his paper within the broader controversy following Lisa Littman’s 2018 work, describing institutional and professional repercussions. He argues ROGD threatens a belief system that treats dysphoria as always authentic and rapid transition as the preferred path, and he calls for more research rather than censorship.
- •Lisa Littman’s 2018 paper as the first major ROGD study; heavy pushback
- •Claims of personal/professional consequences for Littman
- •ROGD seen as contradicting ‘always real’ dysphoria and ‘rapid transition’ norms
- •Bailey stresses the evidence base is early (his is second major study)
- •Argument: critics should conduct studies instead of trying to silence research
- 12:49 – 21:20
Competing explanations for the trans identification surge: acceptance vs social contagion
Chris lays out the ‘left-handedness’ analogy (greater acceptance reveals true prevalence) versus a ‘social contagion’ model that may affect adolescent girls disproportionately. Bailey agrees both can coexist and discusses how cultural incentives and identity/victim-status dynamics might shape choices.
- •‘Left-handedness’ argument: reduced stigma increases open identification
- •‘Social contagion’ framing: peer effects and trend susceptibility
- •Bailey: both forces may operate; key question is which predominates
- •Discussion of incentives, status, and ‘cred’ associated with identity claims
- •Concern about coupling transgender identity with victim status as a social reward
- 21:20 – 25:16
Psychological vulnerabilities and the ‘epidemic’ analogy to recovered memory/MPD
The conversation turns to comorbidities (autism, anxiety, depression) and why certain psychological profiles might be more susceptible to adopting identity explanations. Bailey compares the current phenomenon to the 1990s recovered-memory and multiple-personality ‘epidemic,’ arguing peer-driven belief adoption can produce real behavioral changes.
- •Autism link debated; Bailey is skeptical due to broadened diagnostics
- •Study participants showed elevated anxiety and depression diagnoses
- •1990s parallel: recovered memories and MPD clustered around suggestive therapy
- •ROGD difference: younger onset and peer-driven rather than therapist-driven
- •Identity disturbance (e.g., borderline traits historically linked) as possible vulnerability
- 25:16 – 30:59
Next steps: a prospective, multi-year study with Littman and Zucker + IRB controversy
Bailey describes upcoming longitudinal research recruiting adolescents and families directly, aiming to track outcomes over years and compare wellbeing for those who transition versus those who don’t. He also explains the publisher’s stated reason for retraction—ethics/IRB and informed consent technicalities—and argues it was a pretext.
- •Planned large-scale recruitment of dysphoric adolescents and families
- •Extensive baseline survey: mental health, gender history, transition steps
- •Longitudinal follow-up (5+ years) to assess happiness/outcomes
- •Retraction justification: IRB/informed consent procedural issues (per Springer)
- •Bailey argues parents understood purpose; future work is ‘fully covered’ ethically
- 30:59 – 37:48
Sexual orientation patterns in trans populations: historical baselines and two MtF types
Bailey outlines what sexology typically reported decades ago: most FtM were female-attracted, while MtF included a ‘homosexual MtF’ group (male-attracted and feminine early) and an ‘autogynephilic’ group (aroused by the idea of being female). He frames these as distinct etiological pathways and notes the political sensitivity of discussing them.
- •Historical claim: FtM mostly female-attracted; minority male-attracted
- •MtF described as two types: early-feminine male-attracted vs autogynephilic
- •Autogynephilia defined as arousal to the idea of being a woman
- •Discusses adolescent onset patterns (cross-dressing fantasies, body transformation wishes)
- •Notes controversy and claims activists try to suppress discussion
- 37:48 – 41:38
Autogynephilia debates: stigma, ‘autoandrophilia,’ and pornography’s role
Chris asks about a female analogue to autogynephilia. Bailey discusses the term ‘autoandrophilia’ and explains why he’s skeptical it occurs comparably due to sex differences in sexuality. They also address claims that certain porn (e.g., ‘sissy hypno’) causes autogynephilia; Bailey argues it more likely attracts those already predisposed.
- •Female analogue term: autoandrophilia; Bailey remains unconvinced
- •Argument: male sexuality tends to be more focused/fixed, enabling certain paraphilias
- •Autogynephilia likely has biological underpinnings (Bailey’s strong intuition)
- •Porn causation claim rejected; Bailey suggests selection rather than induction
- •Discussion of how taboo topics become politicized or treated as ‘narcissistic injury’
- 41:38 – 47:04
Attraction to ‘she-males’ (gynandromorphophilia): how common and how it maps to straight/gay
Bailey defines gynandromorphophilia as attraction to trans women who retain male genitalia, and notes its visibility in pornography and sex work contexts. He describes lab findings suggesting these men are much closer to straight men than gay men in arousal patterns, with some stimulus-specific differences.
- •Definition and the contested terminology around it
- •Visibility via porn categories and escort markets; anecdotal observations
- •Lab paradigm: compare arousal to female-female vs male-male stimuli
- •Finding described: arousal resembles straight men; not aroused by male-male porn
- •Difference: slightly higher arousal to ‘two shemales’ vs typical straight men’s pattern
- 47:04 – 54:04
Female arousal patterns, ‘genital indifference,’ and sexual fluidity vs male fixity
Bailey discusses research indicating straight women show relatively non-specific genital arousal patterns to male-male and female-female erotica, while lesbians show clearer category-specific responses. This leads into broader claims that women’s sexuality is more fluid and men’s more fixed, which Bailey links to the higher prevalence of male paraphilias.
- •Straight women: flatter/less category-specific genital response in lab stimuli
- •Lesbians: stronger alignment between subjective and genital preference for female stimuli
- •Methodological challenges comparing male vs female arousal measurement
- •Lisa Diamond’s ‘female fluidity’ and shifting identity/attraction over time
- •Bailey’s claim: male orientation is more fixed; explains greater male paraphilia prevalence
- 54:04 – 1:00:20
Why more men develop ‘strange’ sexual interests: paraphilias and inward/outward ‘inversion’
The discussion broadens into paraphilias (including attraction to amputees, animals, extreme obesity) and the phenomenon where some individuals are aroused both by a target and by becoming the target. Bailey references ongoing/accepted work and prior research on autopedophilia as an example of this mirrored structure.
- •Examples of paraphilias studied: acrotomophilia, zoophilia, lipophilia
- •Finding: many subjects also aroused by becoming the object (amputee/fat/animal)
- •Reports of rare cases pursuing real-world body modification (amputation)
- •Autopedophilia research: arousal to being a child; mirrored sex-of-target pattern
- •Discussion of how these patterns suggest structured, not random, sexual interests
- 1:00:20 – 1:10:16
Environment and culture: how much can sexual orientation shift (men vs women)?
Chris asks whether ecological or cultural forces can reshape orientation, referencing sex-negative cultures and changing mating markets. Bailey answers speculatively that men’s orientation is less culturally responsive, while women may be more responsive to experience and context, while noting cases where straight men engage with feminine-presenting natal males in certain cultures.
- •Bailey’s speculative stance: men’s orientation less responsive to cultural pressure
- •Examples: Fa’afafine in Samoa; Thailand ‘ladyboys’—straight men may engage sexually
- •Claim: such engagement is driven by feminine presentation, not attraction to ‘men’
- •Women may be more responsive to cultural factors and negative experiences with men
- •Distinguishes behavior from identity labels; emphasizes sex differences in plasticity
- 1:10:16 – 1:14:35
Gaydars and ‘gay accents’: how people detect orientation cues
Bailey describes research suggesting people can identify gay vs straight men at above-chance levels using subtle cues rather than overt femininity. They discuss movement and speech patterns, including the idea of a ‘gay accent’ and even a ‘lesbian accent,’ and debate whether these arise from social modeling or neurobiological differences.
- •‘Gaydar’ performance is better than chance but imperfect
- •Key cues: movement and speech patterns more than clothing or facial features
- •‘Gay accent’ and ‘lesbian accent’ as described patterns of expressiveness/articulation
- •Hypotheses: modeled behavior during development vs partially feminized brain traits
- •Chris connects to communication advantages in media/commentary spaces
- 1:14:35 – 1:21:20
Mate value malleability, depression differences, and closing plugs
Chris and Bailey revisit older work on sex differences in mate value and how changeable attractiveness/status may be for men versus women, tying it to online ‘who has it worse’ debates and broader cultural shifts. They close with reflections on uncertainty, concerns about academic freedom, and where to find Bailey’s work and contact him.
- •Older paper: mate value linked to accomplishments (men) vs looks (women) as a depression hypothesis
- •Chris discusses broader research (e.g., strength controls) and internet mate-market debates
- •Bailey views cultural change as substantial but is unsure how to steer it
- •Academic freedom concerns recur as a major theme
- •Where to find him: Google Scholar, ResearchGate, or email jm-bailey@northwestern.edu
