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70 min read · 14,147 words- 0:00 – 10:38
Cosm’s playground virality
- SPShaan Puri
Okay. All right, so we gotta talk about this. This business is really, really cool. It's a product I wanna use, and I think it's a business that could be kinda big
- SPSam Parr
Re- revolutionary maybe. [upbeat music]
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs] Yeah, you probably saw this because it's been going viral over and over and over again. And I always look for products that have this playground virality, meaning anytime somebody shows you that they're using it or they share a picture of it, it immediately sparks a big reaction. And so I saw... I'm gonna sh- share these three posts. So there's like... Check these out. The first one is this Reddit post. And so I go on Reddit, and I see this post, and it's in the r/damnthat'sinteresting subreddit, which is one of my favorite subreddits. And it's basically a video of somebody inside this venue, and it's like a sports bar meets IMAX. So you're sitting there, you've got a beer, you're just hanging out with your friends, but there's a giant screen, it's almost a dome that's over you, where it looks like you're front row at a football game, in this case. And they're cheering, and the crowd's going crazy. But it, it, it looks like you're in the stadium, but you're not in the stadium. You're just in a bar. And this is called Cosm, or as I'm calling it, the mini sphere. Some people have probably heard, you've probably seen the, uh, the Sphere in Las Vegas. It's this giant, huge dome that's, uh, you know, in the middle of Las Vegas, and it's this insane $2.3 billion project that is, you know, just remarkable. It looks like... It's kinda cool. It's like one of those things where it's like humans built the pyramids, and then we built the Sphere. [laughs] It's like a, this marvel of, uh, of engineering and technology. Well, the Cosm is basically a mini Sphere. So it's like a 2,000, you know, seat venue that you can use for sports games and all this stuff. And now they got a couple of them popping up. I think this is really cool. I think it rides on a bunch of big trends, so it's, you know, uh, out-of-home entertainment I think is a big deal. I think people are looking for places to congregate, to drink, to eat, and to enjoy themselves. And movie theaters are sort of stale. Like, I think streaming has sort of kicked movie theaters' ass in a way, and now this is the out-of-home way of punching back. This thing, I think, is gonna be a much better way to watch live events and live sports than sitting at home.
- SPSam Parr
Yeah, so basically if you're listening, um, if you see the photos, it's as if they... So they build this massive... It's not even a bar. It looks like, it looks like a science center. It's like a huge building that they're building just for this thing.
- SPShaan Puri
Right.
- SPSam Parr
And you go in, and it's like as... Did you ever go as a kid to the science center where it has the, I-
- SPShaan Puri
Planetarium
- SPSam Parr
... was it called Omni- Omnimax? Yeah, like a planetarium where the screen's all above you.
- SPShaan Puri
Well-
- SPSam Parr
That's basically what it is. But they had to raise $250 million to, to build this, 'cause it's like a massive undertaking.
- SPShaan Puri
Oh, no, they just raised that. So they just raised that a few months ago. They built the first two without, or they built the first one at least, without that, 'cause that was in July.
- SPSam Parr
Who funded that?
- SPShaan Puri
So the story of this is there's a guy who's behind it, and he started one of the biggest real estate property management software companies, I think called RealPage. The guy's name is Wynn.
- SPSam Parr
Oh, yeah.
- SPShaan Puri
Uh, something like Wynn. So he has this thing called RealPage. RealPage got bought by Thoma Bravo for, like, $10 billion. This guy made a couple billion dollars out of it. He then starts his own kind of-
- SPSam Parr
By the way, you might be confusing the name. Steve Wynn is the guy from, um, Las Vegas, the casino guy.
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah, I think this guy's name is also Wynn, but it's W-I-N-N.
- SPSam Parr
Oh, really?
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah. So [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
Oh, that's... Okay.
- SPShaan Puri
So it's a different Steve Wynn [laughs] that is, that is behind this one. And so he, uh, he's got this venture capital firm, Merusov Capital. So he basically, what he did was actually pretty interesting. So you said it's like a planetarium. No, no, no. It is a planetarium. [laughs] Do you know the backstory of this?
- SPSam Parr
No. I, no.
- SPShaan Puri
So he went and bought three companies. So he bought the companies that make the science planetarium things for every, you know, museum or whatever, like, you know, science place. So they, he bought that company. Then he bought another company that, you know, did the LED screen part of that. Then he bought another company that was, like, the, like, cameras and technology part of it. So it's a roll-up of three or four companies now at this point that he did. And because of that, they have, you know, they're, they're basically the monopoly on, um... I, I mean, it's not a monopoly as in nobody else can do it, but they're the biggest player in developing this type of technology, these types of screens.
- SPSam Parr
Wow.
- SPShaan Puri
What he did was realize, hey, this is cool, but it doesn't have to just be for, for pl- the planetarium. Like, you could use this for sports if you send your own video crew to go film, like, the, the sort of courtside or field-side seats at these different venues. And so they do- they're basically a full-stack thing. So they have the rights with the leagues, uh, like UFC, for example. They have the rights with the UFC. They have the rights with cer- certain football leagues. And they go, they send a full production crew there. So it's not just what your... It's not just what you see on TV, but bigger. It's its own thing. And so they have, like, crews that are almost like VR where you see, like, they're right there by the end zone. And then as the guy crosses, the camera's turning with him. And then they have a live production team that's basically cutting between the different cameras that they have to show what's gonna be on that huge screen. And so that's how they actually made this. That's the backstory of how they did this.
- SPSam Parr
That's, that's amazing. I did not realize that that's how it started.
- SPShaan Puri
All right. Real quick, I wanna talk to you if you are new to business. If you are just getting started, maybe you're new to this podcast, you're trying to get out there and do your first business, there's a lot of people who listen to this podcast that fall into that category, and HubSpot has made something pretty cool for you. Most people, in your first business, you might do something like freelancing or being a solopreneur. It's an easy way to get started. You don't need to have a lot of money. It's a great way to build skills and build that monthly cash flow. But knowing where to start is not super easy. The folks at HubSpot have created a kit that you can go download. It's a, it's a ultimate entrepreneurship kit for people who are really getting started in this journey. They also have a solopreneurship guide that will give you sort of the mindset that you need to go on this journey. Check it out. It's the Ultimate En- Entrepreneurship Kit. The link is in the description below this video. Check it out and enjoy.
- SPSam Parr
I really wanna go to one of these. I've had a friend who, uh, his name's Hat. I think you, you know Hat. Uh, he went to the one in Dallas, and he sent me a video of it.
- SPShaan Puri
I do not have a friend named Hat. Who's [laughs] ... Who is our friend named Hat?
- SPSam Parr
He d- He, he messaged us about... He hosted the Dallas MFM meetup.
- 10:38 – 18:13
The Tesla of home appliances
- SPSam Parr
tell you something that's gonna sound stupid and ridiculous, but I think it's true and it's gonna make a lot of money?
- SPShaan Puri
Stupid and ridiculous, but I think it's true, it's gonna make a lot of money. Damn, dude. Did you just do a personality test? That was awesome. [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
[laughs]
- SPShaan Puri
Did you describe yourself? Is that your bio?
- SPSam Parr
[laughs] Yeah. Yeah. There's people who are, like, EFGs, whatever. I'm, like, an I-
- SPShaan Puri
EFG [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
... ID. OIT [laughs] .
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs] It's the new Myers-Briggs, dude. That was awesome.
- SPSam Parr
Yeah. IDIOT. [laughs]
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
Uh, what are you? [laughs]
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
Oh, are you an MOR then? [laughs] Um, listen to this. So you know how, like... Let me th- let me think how. What's the best way to phrase this? 'Cause s- we're coming from a moron's perspective. All right. Uh, so there's something that I think has not been, like, touched on for forever, for, or at least in the startup world, and it bothers me. And the reason why it bothers me is because Tesla, when that came about, that was like, "Oh my God, this is, like, the craziest thing ever. No one would ever touch this." But, but it, it has worked. And now Rivian and there's other now car startups. Same with SpaceX. SpaceX, when they started it was like, "This is ridiculous. You can't make a, a hardware company that goes to space. That's ridiculous." Now we have Anduril. We have a bunch of other stuff like that, and they're getting funding and they're proving that, like, this is a good idea. There's a category of products inside your home-
- SPShaan Puri
Hmm
- SPSam Parr
... you probably have used this product today, that it boggles my mind why there's no innovation. So to put this in perspective, I believe... All right. So there's about 15 million cars sold per year- There's about 13 million units of this product sold per year. Basically, everyone in America has them. They cost thousands of dollars. The lifespan of these products is, like, five years, and that is the washer and dryer.
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
It boggles my mind why we've not seen more innovation with the washer and dryer, and yes, I'm gonna say... I say washer, because with an R. That's a weird Midwestern accent. I'm gonna get that out the way, 'cause people are gonna make fun of me. But what's been killing me is, and I've said this for years, that there's not a good 2-in-1 washer and dryer. So this company called LG, they came out with this, like, washer and dryer the other day that is a two- 2-in-1 washer and dryer, and it was on The Wall Street Journal, and it... There's videos on YouTube talking about this washer and dryer. These nerds like me, who are, like, into this technology, they're, like, going bananas, uh, uh, that this technology has actually, is actually coming to fruition, which basically being the main critique of the washer and dryer in one, is that it was really hard to create a... So when you have a washer, that means it has to be water-sealed, but when you have something that's water-sealed, it's hard to increase the temperature. So how do you put heat in there to dry your clothing? And that technology is actually really hard. But these guys have actually... Like, they're slowly getting around to where it's actually working, and it's amazing how big some of these businesses are, uh, that sell just mostly washer and dryers. So if you look at Whirlpool, I believe what... Whirlpool is publicly traded. Last year, they had $22 billion in sales, and about half of that revenue was from washer and dryers.
- SPShaan Puri
Mm-hmm.
- SPSam Parr
And what's crazy to me is that that's compared to Rivian, which is a venture startup, now I think it's publicly traded, $2 billion a year in sales.
- SPShaan Puri
Right.
- SPSam Parr
And so, like, it's crazy to me that a lot of these sexier industries in the hardware space, cars, rockets, self-defense, are getting funded and are, like, popular, but the washer and dryer in particular, I'm making a prediction that in the next 10 years, maybe 15, we're gonna see a lot of movement in this space, and I think the appetite is big. And I'll give you another example. There's this company called Impulse Labs. Have you heard of Impulse Labs?
- SPShaan Puri
No, I've never heard of them.
- SPSam Parr
So Impulse Labs... And you can make the same case that I made for washer and dryers, you can make that case for ovens or stove tops. But if you look at stove tops, the majority of homes in America have electric stove tops, and electric stove tops are a huge pain in the ass because the way they work, I believe, is that there's basically only one temperature, and so it's like an on or an off. And so when you use an electric stove top, even though you put it on high, that just means that it's going to, like, self-regulate to where it's gonna stay on for a certain amount of time and then turn off for a few seconds and then turn back on and then turn back off to a point where it's high. Then with medium, it's gonna turn off for longer and then... You know what I mean?
- SPShaan Puri
Mm-hmm.
- SPSam Parr
It's gonna, like, try and stay at that same time. That's actually, like, makes a huge difference in your cooking if you're into, like, cooking nice meals, and it's a huge pain in the ass. And so these guys called Impulse Labs, they have built this technology to where you have a battery that's charging all of the time, and that battery, when you wanna use your stove, it, like, turbocharges your stove top, so it keeps the heat at a steady temperature and it gets hot really, really fast. And so they've launched these new stove tops, and when I hear their argument about how big this business can be, I kinda have bought into, like, I think this actually can work. Now, the downside is that you have to raise hundreds of millions of dollars potentially. But when you're thinking about stove tops and washer and dryers, these are actually really, really big markets.
- SPShaan Puri
Right.
- SPSam Parr
Like we're... Like this, like similar s- size of car companies, but are drastically underfunded, potentially have, uh, less competition than a lot of these other, uh, industries, because there's not a lot of startups attacking this.
- SPShaan Puri
Well, I think this is pretty interesting, but I'm gonna poke a few holes in your argument. [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
There's many... But this argument that I've presented, it's like sh- We're gonna call this string cheese.
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah. [laughs] Swiss cheese, I think is the one you're looking for.
- 18:13 – 23:11
$100M sleepy industries
- SPShaan Puri
to the car companies before it's gonna go to some of these. That being said, I have the, I have the June thing. Uh, I have the June oven, and I gotta say, it's good, but it's complete overkill. [laughs] And so I think the hard part of this is, like, like, I don't know if you've ever used it, but there's a camera inside of it. So you put a bagel inside-
- SPSam Parr
No, that's stupid
- SPShaan Puri
... and it just says, "Wait, wait, wait, I got it. Bagel." And I'm like, "Yeah, cool. Still gonna push toast." Uh, like the fact-
- SPSam Parr
[laughs]
- SPShaan Puri
... that this camera was in here that recognized the bagel is, like, a cool demo, but ultimately, like, not that important of a feature compared to, you know, just, like, not being $1,000, right? They... The thing, the... I think the June Oven's like $1,000 or more. So yeah, I'm not, I'm not super convinced on these. But I do like where your head's at, which is what are the sleepy industries that need innovation, where size is there, sleepiness is there, but the innovation is super low. That, in general, is a, is a good place to go if you're really determined and can make some shit happen.
- SPSam Parr
You know who kicks ass in one of these spaces is SharkNinja. Have you heard of SharkNinja?
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah.
- SPSam Parr
Like, they make Ninja and Shark. It's two different brands, but under one company, SharkNinja. I believe it's a bootstrap company, started in 1994. Uh, the, it got bought and went public, but within six years they were doing 100 million in revenue, which in, within the year eight they were doing, uh, $250 million in revenue. Based out of Boston, American company. The products that they make, amazing. They have made some of the best products. So, like, their vacuum is amazing. I own the Creami, which is, like, the greatest thing ever. Th- they helped innovate and create the air fryer. Some of these appliance businesses have been shockingly good and surprisingly bootstrapped.
- SPShaan Puri
Well, you know my favorite one of these that's, like, not as hard to do but, uh, also kind of a sleepy industry, is HexClad. Do you have HexClad? Do you, do you have any of their pans?
- SPSam Parr
I'm thinking about buying some. So convince me why I should buy them.
- SPShaan Puri
Well, dude, I don't know. I think the, you know, one of the things here is, like, uh, a customer has, like, a different, like, awareness and sophistication level. So I don't actually know what would make a great pan if there... I'm sure there's people out there who are like, "No, no, no, only cast iron," or, "Only this type of pan," or, "It's all marketing," whatever. But I'm in the bucket that's, like, the fat part of the bell curve where it's like, yeah, marketing just kinda works on me. Um, [laughs] right? Like, I saw that Gordon Ramsay invested $100 million into HexClad, which is-
- SPSam Parr
Wow
- SPShaan Puri
... a stunning amount of money, and I, I, let me make s-
- SPSam Parr
How does Gordon Ramsay have $100 million to invest in a startup?
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah. As I say that out loud, uh, let me make sure that I, I have this right. So I guess it's his-
- SPSam Parr
Their website-
- SPShaan Puri
... studio. So Studio Ramsay Global, a partnership between Fox and Gordon Ramsay, is investing 100 million into HexClad. So not him personally, let's say, but him and his venture studio or whatever, his venture, venture firm.
- SPSam Parr
Their website is beautiful, and I want to buy HexClad right now because of their website.
- SPShaan Puri
So I bought it. The pans are pretty good. Uh, I don't know, again, if they're the best pans ever, but they're, they're good. And the branding is great. The visual of it, so, like, the pan itself has little, um, hexagons a- as the bottom of it, so it's an instantly recognizable product. Like, when I look in my cabinet, I have, like, all my generic pans, and then I can literally s- just see the difference of a HexClad pan, and it's like, ties to the name. And then you have Gordon Ramsay as the influencer behind this. And it's just pans, dude. It's, like, a sleepy industry that everybody needs. It's a high-value, high-AOV product. And these guys crush. They do hundreds of millions in revenue, and, uh, you know, they're in, they're sold in Costco. They have, like, amazing distribution. I think they're one of the biggest Shopify stores overall. And it was such a non, like... I, I don't wanna disparage 'em by calling it non-innovation, but it's not rockets, and it's not electric cars, right? It's, like, non-stick pans. [laughs] But it is, it is very well done, and, uh, I'm, uh, very impressed with their execution, and it's a great business.
- SPSam Parr
Were they just... Was it just a g- a, a person?
- SPShaan Puri
H- here's what it says.
- SPSam Parr
Like-
- SPShaan Puri
In 2013, the two co-founders, Danny and Cole, they had worked for a now-defunct cookware company and decided they wanted to start their own. So they started, you know, working on it. They dabbled with a couple products. They started selling in 2016. 2017, they get a deal with Costco, and the business has doubled almost every year since 2017. They're one of the top Shopify sellers in the world. They have one of the biggest Black Fridays of any, uh... They said, "I have never heard of anyone who's sold more than us on Black Friday," which I think is just pretty dope. It's a very, very well done product. They make you feel elite, you know, by buying this, this pan. Whether the pan is, is elite or not is sorta secondary. It's a amazing example of just, like, what brand marketing and influence can do for you.
- SPSam Parr
Speaking of food and cooking, do you have any plans for the holidays? 'Cause I, I've got some, uh... I got an idea for you.
- SPShaan Puri
Okay. You inviting me over, or what, what's happening right now? [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
It's even better.
- SPShaan Puri
Okay, cool. [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
This is even better. D- uh, y- are you free?
- SPShaan Puri
I'm free. [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
All right. I've got, like, a little, like, eight-week little project for you i- if you're interested. You know, it's no big deal. It's just a little small... It's like a... It's like the equivalent of, like, a super LEGO.
- 23:11 – 40:42
The rise and fall (and rise?) of Weight Watchers
- SPSam Parr
Weight Watchers. Do me a favor-
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
... and Google Weight Watchers stock right now.
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah. Okay.
- SPSam Parr
What's their market cap at?
- SPShaan Puri
Oh, geez, 58 million. What happened? Oprah. What happened?
- SPSam Parr
That's what happened. Oprah left. Oprah's gone. So-
- SPShaan Puri
Are you serious?
- SPSam Parr
Listen to-
- SPShaan Puri
That's what caused this?
- SPSam Parr
Well, and they lost, uh, $110 million last year, and the business declined by 10%.
- SPShaan Puri
Dude, Ozempic hit 'em?
- SPSam Parr
But-
- SPShaan Puri
What, what happened? I think Ozempic hit 'em.
- SPSam Parr
Well, let me make an argument as to why, uh, Weight Watchers is gonna start selling Ozempic and why Shaan is gonna own 10% of the company.
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
So listen, that's your little, your eight-week project, your holiday project. So Weight Watchers was started, I think, in the '60s, and the way it started was, it was, there was this housewife in New York City, and she, uh, was a little overweight, and she got, uh, a bunch of dieting tips on how to lose weight, and then she created, like, an eight-person support group where she got her friends to give her $2 per meeting, and they m- met once a week, and it helped everyone lose weight. They hel- were held accountable, and they loved it. She did it for about a year, and then eventually this one man and his wife, or his, his wife was like, "Hey, you should... You, you need to lose weight. You go to this woman's support group. I bet she'll lose weight." And this guy was a, a businessman, and he was like, "Hey, um, we should definitely make this a thing." Like, her name was Jean. He was like, "Hey, Jean This should be like a business. This was amazing. I actually, like, lost weight and it changed my life a little bit. And so they come up with this idea to franchise the business, and they launched it in 1963. And by 1968, they had a million members, each paying a, a monthly fee in order to t- attend a local meeting that was based off of their dieting advice, but a local meeting where you would go once a week or once a month in order to have, like, your support group. And then by 1968, they sold the business for $350 million and to, uh... They sold it for $70- $71 million then, which is something like $400 million in today's money. Oddly, they sold to Heinz, Heinz Ketchup, which is like the maker of a lot of foods that are the opposite of what Weight Watchers would suggest. But anyway, uh-
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
... they do their thing, and then, uh, Oprah comes into play. And so Oprah comes into play, and when she comes into play, the, the stock, like, takes off to where, like, she buys a bunch of the stock, and then within, like, weeks or something like that, she has tripled her money and it booms and it takes off. Well, over the last handful of years, her Weight Watchers plan has been shedding her Weight Watch, Watchers stock, and she's been losing a bunch of her stock and selling it, and now it's plummeted. And so the stock is horrible. And so my opinion is if I'm Weight Watchers, I think I'm just gonna start selling Ozempic. That's what I'm gonna become. Um, if I have millions and millions of members who are subscribed to me for weight loss tips, if I needed to, you know, just only care about money, my new game is... Well, I, I th- and by the way, they have, uh, 3.8 million, uh, paying subscribers. The name of my game is, "Hey, for an additional $300 or $400 or $500 a month, we really can guarantee that you're gonna lose weight."
- SPShaan Puri
Well, they're, they're definitely going in this direction. So I didn't realize [laughs] this, but, um, uh, do you know who the CEO of Weight Watchers is?
- SPSam Parr
No. Who?
- SPShaan Puri
Her name r- her name is Sima Sistani. And the reason that name sounds familiar is because she was formerly the COO of Meerkat. Do you remember Meerkat? [laughs] The, like, live streaming app?
- SPSam Parr
What?
- SPShaan Puri
Uh, yeah. So she worked with Ben Rubin.
- SPSam Parr
Mm-hmm.
- SPShaan Puri
And when th- they turned into Houseparty, they ended up getting acquired. Sima end, uh, ends up now being the CEO of Weight Watchers, and she recently wrote an email to the, to the team. So this is a couple months ago. And it says, "Team, as this, the week draws to a close, I wanna take a moment to address some of the breathless media coverage I'm sure you guys have seen." And basically it says, "Hey, we're, we're in a good cash position. We have strong liquidity. The work we do matters. Our business is healthy." And it says, "We've repositioned the company to grow with a clear differentiator. We're gonna offer a full spectrum of weight care, from behavioral," which is the thing where they, what they've been doing, "to clinical." And clinical being-
- SPSam Parr
[laughs]
- SPShaan Puri
... the, you know, the sale of, of essentially, you know, semaglutide type products is, is where they're going with it. So I think it's kind of interesting what you're saying because, uh, I don't know what the... What is the price of a Weight Watchers subscription?
- SPSam Parr
[laughs] If you don't have insurance, semaglutide is somewhere between 500 to $1,000 per month.
- SPShaan Puri
Per month, exactly. And so, like, let's-
- 40:42 – 48:54
"What story is the data telling me?"
- SPShaan Puri
Can I finish with just a, a pro tip, a life pro tip, a f- little framework, a little bit of value here at the end? I feel like we gave some dessert, and now it's time for, for a l- a quick vegetable.
- SPSam Parr
All right.
- SPShaan Puri
All right. So I have a friend who is named Stan, and Stan is a Silicon Valley OG. And what's interesting about San- uh, Stan is that for many years, uh, Mark Zuckerberg personally tried to recruit Stan, and he always said, "No, no, no, no, no." And, and Zuck just kept reaching out, kept trying to recruit him, and eventually got Stan to join Facebook, and he ended up running Messenger, the, the bit- you know, the, the multi-billion user product inside of Facebook. The-
- SPSam Parr
What does a recruitment from Zuck look like?
- SPShaan Puri
So he's, you know, he's not a, he's just not one to kiss and tell, so he didn't give too many details and brag about it too much. But I got the sense that not only was he recruited, but he had been... He had reached out to him many times across the years and eventually made him an offer, you know, too good, so good he couldn't refuse. And so he joins. And I asked Stan, and I go, "Stan, what are you... Like, why, why are you so good?" And then I was like, "No, no, no, bad question. Let me ask a better question. Like, what are you doing differently than the average person here in Silicon Valley who has maybe the same skill set as you but isn't having the same result as you?"
- SPSam Parr
Are you asking why Zuck wanted him or why he's had success throughout his entire career?
- SPShaan Puri
I asked... I, I, I knew Zuck wanted him. I didn't ask why Zuck wanted him. I asked him specifically. I said, "Why does somebody who... Why are you having more success than the average person who has the same skill set as you? Like, is it that you're just working 10 times harder? Are you 10 times smarter than somebody, or do you, do you know something or you do something?" And he told me one thing that I thought was interesting. He said a few things, but the one that stood out, this was many years ago, by the way, so I, this still s- sticks with me, is he said, "You know, in Silicon Valley, we're big on being data-driven, and data, data, data, and data's awesome." But he goes, "What I found is that most people, when they look at data, they already have a story in their head About what they think happens or what we need to do, and then they simply just search for data that's gonna confirm that story. Or they just, like, squeeze the data until it fits that cookie cutter story that they want. He goes, "I'm..." He goes, "I'm different because I just do one thing different. I look at the data and ask a simple question. What story is the data telling me?" And what story is the data telling me is a much better question. For example, we were just looking at the Weight Watchers stock, and I was like, "What happened?" And you go, "Oprah." I was like, "Oprah, what happened?" And you go, "Oprah happened." But if you actually look, like the stock falls off a cliff as soon as, like, the Ozempic trend started, right? Like that was the, that was the date. Oprah left, I think, in like 2014 or something. Like she left like a long time ago, but the stock really fell off a cliff when, uh, Ozempic took off. And the data is telling us that something happened in early 2023 that really hurt Weight Watchers' stock. And then you go look at what actually happened. And I've s- I just felt this in one of my companies too where we, in my e-com stores, like we've been beating every month forecast, and then August was the first month we didn't beat. And I asked the team, I said, "What happened?" And my CMO will give one answer, and our chief product officer will give another answer, and then the, the website guy will give a different answer, and how am I supposed to figure out what answer? And the, the r- way I figure it out is I try... I just told them, I said, "Post the data first, and then tell me the story." 'Cause what, what always happens is they tell me the story, and then they'll go find-
- SPSam Parr
Yeah
- SPShaan Puri
... some data that might, some cherry-pick a bit of data that might support that. But they'll leave out a bunch of other data.
- SPSam Parr
Well, it's like, you ever played those things where it's like find a word, uh, in a, like as like the puzzles in The New York Times, like find, find this word.
- SPShaan Puri
Mm-hmm.
- SPSam Parr
It's like if I already know-
- SPShaan Puri
Word search, yeah
- SPSam Parr
... I'm looking for this word, yeah, word, it's like if you- if I know I'm looking for this word, I, I think I can find it, but if, if you tell me that I gotta find a, a variety of words, I might find those first.
- SPShaan Puri
Exactly. Exactly. And so, uh, what we did, I just flipped it. I just said, "Before you give me your, your idea of what hap- what went wrong, can you first just show me the picture of the data, like the full s- full set of the data of what happened? And then it should tell us a story." So then we just started asking the question, "What data, what story is the data telling us?" And I think that that is just a much better way to approach data, uh, decision-making, and I think that is a great hack that this guy who's had am- amazing success in his career says, "You know, this is one thing I do differently that I think it leads to a different result." Because every time I do that, you know, it's like how do you be right more often? One way is just remove a bunch of your bad habits and bad biases that's causing you to make bad decisions, and I think this is a good habit that would lead you to make better decisions, so I wanted to share that.
- SPSam Parr
That's kind of a weird... That's, if, for [laughs] for you to think, for him to think, "Why am I so successful?" Not weird. Weird's the right word. That's a very particular-
- SPShaan Puri
Well, I, I specifically asked, "What are you doing differently?" Not why are you so successful, but what do you do that's different than the average person who's got the same skill set as you? What is it that you do differently? So for example-
- SPSam Parr
I know, it, it, it-
- SPShaan Puri
You know, Sam, you're a great writer
- SPSam Parr
... that's just strange, right?
- SPShaan Puri
I could be like, you know, "Why are you a great writer?" And you might say, "Well, I've practiced a bunch," or, "I read," or, "I naturally have a gift for it." A different question is what do you do differently than other people who also write blog posts or write newsletters? What would your answer be?
- SPSam Parr
I potentially am significantly more honest than most people, and I explain all of the bad sides and the good sides up front in a particular story, which makes people like and trust me more. So, uh, like I try to be the opposite of sensational.
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah. You wrote an email to the mayor, and you said, uh, y- your honest take was, "I- in s- in a small corner of the internet, unpopular. I don't know if that matters to you, but I'm trying to impress you because I, I-
- SPSam Parr
Yeah [laughs]
- SPShaan Puri
... I don't know if that worked, but I'd like to, I'm say that, I say that to impress you." Nobody would say-
- SPSam Parr
Exactly
- SPShaan Puri
... in the email, "I say that to impress you." [laughs] Like, obviously they do that to impress them, but nobody says that out loud. I think your gift is that you are willing to say the, the, uh, the honest part out loud, and that that endears people to you, and that makes it more likable, and that makes it more distinct, and that makes it stand out versus, you know, re- reasons that other people, their writing might stand out. So I think that's a, it's a great example of, like, that question of what do you d- what is it that you actually do that's different versus how do I become successful or, you know, how did you become successful? Like, people have different... They'll give you a different answer depending on the question.
- SPSam Parr
And r- I guess what I'm saying is calling him weird is not the right word 'cause that sounds negative. What I mean is that's such a sh- a particular and unexpected answer of like, oh, you just look at the data and you're, like, not judgmental about it, uh, versus coming to it with an emotion or a story to prove. So it's like you're, you're, like you're black and white, uh, about different information and you're not, uh, coming with an agenda.
- SPShaan Puri
Right. It's a weirdly specific answer, I agree. Now, the caveat is this was like 10 years ago when he told me this, and also I bet if I asked him the same question today he would give me a different answer. [laughs] Maybe that was just top of mind because of what was going on that day in his, his world or what he had noticed recently.
- SPSam Parr
Why did you... Well, why did you just remember this now?
- 48:54 – 53:49
What certainty level is needed to make a decision
- SPSam Parr
often do you question if you are right or wrong? Or put differently, what level of certainty is your average big monthly decision?
- SPShaan Puri
That's a great question. What percent certainty is my average monthly decision? In this, in the situations where I have data, 'cause there's two types of decisions. There's data where there's decisions where we have information, and there's decisions that we'll actually go create information, meaning we're only gonna know this by trying this, and that will gather more information.
- SPSam Parr
Like, here's, here's what I mean. Every month or quarter or so, a business that is in the 5 million, 10 million, 20... Like, the, some range where it's like, all right, this like definitely is working, but I don't know if it's gonna be massive, medium, or it could even go out of business eventually. But like there's something here. So for, for those types of businesses, uh, every quarter or month, there's a decision that can potentially change the trajectory entirely or not impact anything at all. And I've noticed that, like it's like monthly or quarterly, and I ask myself wondering like before I was very certaint- certain, like this, if I do this, I'm gonna do this or, or we're gonna figure it out. Now I'm actually realizing the decisions I make on, for, during those periods can actually be very impactful, both in a negative and a bad way. Like, you can make a decision today that you pay for in 18 or 24 months. And so I, I used to be very confident. Now I'm less confident of like, I think this, but I want everyone to know I don't know anything.
- SPShaan Puri
Right, right. [laughs]
- SPSam Parr
And so what I'm asking for you is are you s- how do you come to these decisions with high certainty or low certainty?
- SPShaan Puri
I don't really think about it like that. If I had to answer that part, it would probably be high certainty for the next phase, the next chunk. Meaning I know that I've looked at what the options are and what the information we have is, and of those two thi- And once I take those, you know, I have the menu of options and I got the, the, uh, the information that we have, I can make the right decision for th- this moment. That doesn't mean it's going to end up being right. It means given what I had, that wa- that ha- that had to be the right decision. There was no o- there was a only other suboptimal decisions from there. But there's still some probability that that's not gonna be true, but I couldn't have known that 'cause I just didn't have the information. I think I've done a good job of hitting the ball into the net, where I look back, 'cause I do this often, I look back and I say, "Could I have known this or did I already know? Did I actually know deep down and I ignored it or did I know or could I have known but I rushed?" And I have cut those down a lot, mostly honestly because I work with Ben and I talk things out loud. And when I'm talking out loud, I can literally hear, like I can litigate against my point. I can hear the holes in my argument, right? And I'll, and I'm comfortable enough with him to be like, to be saying it out loud and not feel stupid to mid-sentence be like, "But actually I think that doesn't matter at all," or, "But actually that might not even be true. I, I might just be saying that." Or I'll stop midway and just say, "But honestly, of all those things, the most important thing I said was this, and that actually wipes out all the other shit, and so ev- nevermind. Let's go for a no instead of a yes." And I'll just edit it midair because he's, he makes me feel comfortable enough and, or we have enough trust built up where it's only about getting it right. There is 0% about appearing right, which in my o- my other companies before, I think I was much, much more tied to having to feel like I needed to maintain some appearance of being smart and in charge and knowing things.
- SPSam Parr
Oh, yeah.
- SPShaan Puri
And even, and I wouldn't, I wouldn't litigate my own thoughts. I would not cross-examine them enough, and I think that led to a lot of bad decisions before.
- SPSam Parr
And the reason I'm bringing that up is I'm feeling this is similar thing. As I, um, get a little bit older and sometimes have more success and sometimes not, what I'm learning is that there's a million different ways to get done differ- to get different things done, and there, like for example, we saw, uh, go viral this founder mode thing, and everyone loved it. And maybe that is the right for certain people. I could point to many examples of successes that are not that.
- SPShaan Puri
Right.
- SPSam Parr
It's the exact opposite. It, it violates exactly what that person is saying is, is the law. And as I grow and start getting to some of these decisions, I'm learning a little bit. I, I'm, it's more becoming, um, I don't know anything. Let's just do what feels good. And so I guess it's like surrendering to like the world-
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
... of like I know nothing.
- SPShaan Puri
Right.
- SPSam Parr
I, and so, you know, you, you, you, you're kind of back to where you were when you were 18 years old, uh, of like I don't know the right way. Whereas when you're a little bit younger, you read all these books. Like according to the start... What's that startup book about lean MVP?
- SPShaan Puri
Lean Startup, yeah.
- SPSam Parr
Uh, Lean Startup. According to L- L- the Lean Startup, we have to do this, this, and this, and so you just do that. And sometimes it works.
- SPShaan Puri
Right.
- SPSam Parr
But there's just, there's so many different ways to make the same thing work. Because of that, I wanna get to some of these decisions. I'm significantly less confident in having the right answer, but I'm kind of okay with it.
- SPShaan Puri
Well,
- 53:49 – 57:22
Confidence vs certainty
- SPShaan Puri
I think there's a difference between confidence and certain. So I'm definitely less certain. That doesn't necessarily mean I'm less confident, meaning I can be confident-
- SPSam Parr
Gotcha
- SPShaan Puri
... that this is the right decision to make, but I can agree that hey, there's low, low, uh, certainty here that this is going to work or that this is correct. One of the things that's helped me is to, uh, figure out some words to describe this. 'Cause what I found was that one of the big leaks was that I was miscommunicating my own certainty to others. Meaning I talk in a very confident way, or I'll say, "Let's do this." And even though in my mind I'm like, "Let's do this, and then we'll know by next Friday, or we'll try it three times and then we'll know after three times whether this was the right path or the wrong path." But I wanna go try it three times, right? I wanna go give it three weeks, or I wanna go give it three months. I know that for certain, but that was coming across to other people like this is the way and this is the right answer, and then they got very, they got a lot of whiplash when that would change. And I'm like, "Why are you getting whiplash? We were looking for, we wanted to try it to know-" If this was the correct path or not, and turns out we're gonna turn. And so I found that I use this phrase a lot now, which is, "Let's turn over another card," which is like a poker term, right? So it's like in poker you operate with, you have your hand, first you have your, your two cards, and you just know, is it, should I fold here or is it worth, worth seeing the flop? So I'll say that. Let's see the flop here. The, let's see the flop is, let's take the call with the person. Let's take the meeting. Let's make the prototype. Let's draft the thing. Um, let's write down, let's, let's write down the, the, the plan and then let's see after that if we wanna do it or not. And then sometimes we'll say, "You know what? Let's turn over another card," which means let's get to the next milestone of infor- information to get to a point where we, we will have more certainty of whether this is the correct thing to do or not. And that language at least taught kinda like my little team, which is, is they know now how much, like, yes, we are doing this, we're committed to doing this step, but we're not committed to doing the next thousand steps because we're gonna turn over another card and we're gonna find out some more information. We're gonna find out, right? "Oh, we think this guy's really great. Should we hire him? Let's turn over another card. Let's do some reference checks and let's give him the project." Right? We don't need to debate more. We've already debated as much as we need to, given the information we have. At this point, it's about getting more information. And the other thing that's helped a lot is be specific about what information. So often, uh, Ben will hit me with a like, "Well, let's see." Or like, um, "Yeah, I just wanna like look into it more," or like, "I wanna try it out." And then we'll just pause and be like, "Cool. W- what, what specific information do you think you lack right now?" Like, if we don't have enough deci- information to make a decision, what is the information we need? And c- and then you often realize, you're like, "Uh, um, uh, and actually it's just I didn't feel con- confident enough to make a decision right now. I don't even really know what I'm looking for. So even if I spend another few weeks thinking about this or exploring this, I'm gonna do it haphazardly because I don't have clarity on even what I'm looking for. I don't know what, what question I'm trying to answer here, so therefore probably gonna have, probably gonna still be as uncertain three weeks from now as I am today." But when you, you kind of try to pin down like, "Well, what do we really need to make this decision? Or what extra information do we need to know?" You might be able to, like, make the decision that afternoon.
- SPSam Parr
Hmm. Yeah, I mean, I guess I'm become old, uh, but like I thoroughly enjoy it. Like-
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
... like, like these are the things I think about lately, uh, is just like, "Am I making the right decision?" Uh, you know, like, uh, what's that one smart dude say? "A life unexamined is a worthless life."
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
What's that dude's name? Socrates.
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs]
- SPSam Parr
Uh, [laughs] uh, and so I'm like examining like some of my, um, decisions and things like that. Um, anyway, I could talk about this stuff all day, but it gets pretty nerdy, I think.
- SPShaan Puri
I have
- 57:22 – 1:03:10
Shaan's monthly impact grid
- SPShaan Puri
another little exercise for you. I do this thing, it, it, it's on the wall over here. You can't see it. But I take every month and I just make a box that's like a 12 box grid, and in it we'll look back and we'll say, "Okay, last six months."
- SPSam Parr
A 12 box grid.
- SPShaan Puri
So it's like January, February, e- each, each month is a box, okay? So I just make a, make a, like a-
- SPSam Parr
Got it. Cool, cool, cool
- SPShaan Puri
... calendar looking thing.
- SPSam Parr
That's pretty good. Yeah.
- SPShaan Puri
And then what we do is we just go and we look and we just say, "What's the one thing we did?" Or like, "What are, what were the things we did that month that were the, the like big s- the things that actually made an impact?" We worked, you know, 24 days out of the month or whatever, and we did so many things, but like when you zoom out and you just look back, you're like, "What were the things that actually mattered that month?" Similarly, we'll say, and, and in that could be a decision. It could be, you know, a lo- a product you launched or a thing you did. It could be a buy/sell decision. It could be a hiring/firing decision. It could be whatever, right? But it's all big font, so it's like ima- it's gotta be something you can read from like, you know, 10 feet away, meaning you can't just write in there your entire to-do list. And when we do that, it's amazing because every month has like an embarrassingly low number of things that actually mattered, like one to three, and everything else was just the cost of doing business. Everything else was just the noise that it took to get to those one to three things that even mattered in a month. And when you do that, you start to... But the good thing about going back and looking at it is the more you go back and look at it, the more that in the moment you start to realize like, "Oh, this is probably gonna be the thing for the month that actually matters. Let me really like focus and get this part right, 'cause it's probably gonna make up for like all the rest of the, the random activity, the random motion that I've been doing this month." Because you see, you start to see patterns of like what, what even could make it into this box? And, you know, those are the things that matter. Okay, this month, this seems like it's probably gonna be the thing that we'll end up writing in the box for the month.
- SPSam Parr
And you never write it before?
- SPShaan Puri
Well, I don't know before exactly, right? Like I just, on a given day I kinda know what I'm focusing on. In a given week I kinda know what would make for a good week. But when I zoom out, it's like, you know, um, the decision to invest in X or the decision to, um, bring on this person, um, this trip that we took that had those five meetings in person that would not have been the same over Zoom. Um, you know, spending that two days with that person who we think is like just awesome value add to our life, just such a fun, awesome person, and going deep with that person rather than keeping it surface level. Like little things like that or it's, um, the decision to stop working on X project, uh, was the main thing we did that month, and that was huge because had we not done that, we wouldn't have had the time and the, the bandwidth-
- SPSam Parr
Oh, yeah
- SPShaan Puri
... to do this thing the next month. Um, so it's usually things of that l- at, at that level.
- SPSam Parr
That's pretty good. I'm gonna start doing that. Is that it? Is that the pod?
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah.
- SPSam Parr
Are we doing a, Sam's List on Wednesdays?
- SPShaan Puri
Yeah, next, next episode we're gonna do Sam's List. I got, I got probably six or seven companies right now, um, that I think are, are good contenders for it. And if you don't know Sam's List, we'll do the teaser here. Sam's wife, Sarah, blew my mind. Me and Sam were entrepreneurs. We're taking maximum risk. We're living off of nothing. You know, like Sam's paying himself like 20 grand a year or something like that at the time. And I just looked at what we were doing, which was this kind of like one in 20 shot of success, mostly eating shit every day, had to be innovative, had to take high risk, and then we looked at Sarah. Who joined, I think, Airbnb and Facebook, companies that were like, we... I could have told you in my sleep that those were winners. And she joined-
- SPSam Parr
Yeah
- SPShaan Puri
... as like employee 400 or 1,000 or something like that. Like, not even betting on it when it was the first 10 employees. And the basic math was that if you get a job that's, let's just say, I, I don't know her number, so I'm just gonna make this up. You get a job where you're making, let's call it $150,000 a year base salary, and then they give you a stock option grant that's gonna give you 40,000 a year of stock on top of that. Um, so you get, let's say, a $200,000-ish stock package, that if that company just basically 4Xs, uh, 5Xs in a four years time span, you've made a million dollars without taking any of the risk that we were taking as entrepreneurs, and she did it multiple times. She did that multiple times, and we realized, wow, there is a set of companies that are like, they're past the point of like, they're out of the, they're-
- SPSam Parr
Going out of business
- SPShaan Puri
... they're out of the, the, the death trap of, or they're, you know, like the, the highly likely to die, you know, area. These are great businesses that will just keep growing, keep compounding. You could join them today as employee 500, and you will become a millionaire without doing any of the entrepreneurial stuff. If you could just identify the kind of like 10 companies a year that fit that mold. And so we take a stab at identifying those 10 companies. Um, and that's, that's what we call Sarah's List.
- SPSam Parr
And that episode we're gonna record Wednesday. Um, so I gotta prepare for it. I got a, a couple, but it's really hard. This is actually a hard list to make because I don't wanna like... You're not exactly giving advice, but some people take it as such. So I wanna make sure that it's good. And if-
- SPShaan Puri
Well, we've also done the look back at the last time we did it, and I think our, our hit rate was pretty good. We'll do it again. We'll go, we'll go look at, we'll go look at an update and see what was the hit rate of the ones we did last time. We do not proclaim to be, you know, that these are all gonna work. No way, right? That's not, that's not it. But-
- SPSam Parr
And the hit rate's good because we pick things that are obvious, and they get big, and it's like, duh.
- SPShaan Puri
But that's the point.
- SPSam Parr
Yeah.
- SPShaan Puri
[laughs] It's all relative-
- SPSam Parr
And that's the point
- SPShaan Puri
... to the current valuation of the company, right? So, oh yeah, that was already a billion-dollar company.
- SPSam Parr
Yeah.
- SPShaan Puri
Cool. It's six now. So it's 6Xed, [laughs] right? Your $200,000 stock package is 6X now.
- SPSam Parr
Um, all right. That's today's pod. We'll talk to you Wednesday. [outro music]
Episode duration: 1:03:25
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Transcript of episode iUuMCM5y-a0
