Nikhil KamathMartin Escobari: Trauma, Chaos & Three Industries Worth $100B | Nikhil Kamath | People by WTF
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
75 min read · 14,983 words- 0:00 – 5:14
Introduction
- NKNikhil Kamath
[upbeat music] [water sloshing] [graphic popping] [siren wailing]
- SPSpeaker
What did you do in New York before the Martin Escobari episode?
- NKNikhil Kamath
I caught up with some kids from Columbia University, eclectic kids, some from Brazil, some from a bunch of really interesting different places. Next question: What scares you today about the future?
- SPSpeaker
I love this question.
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs] Would you like to take it?
- SPSpeaker
Yeah.
- SPSpeaker
I mean, for me, again, the uncertainty is something that I am very scared of. Like, as of today, I think I have a stable job after my school, and, like, touch wood, probably I'll pay [laughs] my tuition fee back. But again, I don't know whether the space that I'm going in is the right space because I don't exactly know what's changing in the future. So that's one thing that I'm scared about.
- SPSpeaker
Um, I would say I'm scared of a world where countries are less friendly to each other. Um, I think that... I'm from South Africa, as I said before, and you know, we were just in South Africa recently on a trip with, meeting with business leaders, and they were telling us all these collaborations they have with American companies. So I really think that that kind of collaboration is what makes the world a better place. It's what makes all of us better off. Um, so I'm really afraid of where the world is going, uh, where countries are becoming more insular.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Would you like to go next?
- SPSpeaker
Yeah. I mean, I think for me, I worry most about climate change, and I worry about rising inequality.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm.
- SPSpeaker
Um, I think the sentiments you're expressing, I'm very worried about, but to me, part, part of the root cause is rising inequality, and those two things, coming from a society that had really extreme inequality, um, your social health, your quality of life, in some ways, is much, much worse as a result of living in a society where people have some- a small minority has a lot, and the majority has very little. It makes me concerned about how well I can live here in the long term.
- SPSpeaker
No, what scares me the most, and, and I think everyone said very similar things, um, is that our current leaders do not have a moral compass. And our leaders should collectively, um, be pushing back on some of the things that have happened in the past years, um, and that there is no moral obligation, it seems like, anymore, and I find that to be a real disappointment, um, not only in this country, but globally. And we should look to our current leaders and say, and hold them accountable. Like, "What are you, [laughs] what are you doing?" [laughs] And so, um, that's kind of what I'm scared of.
- SPSpeaker
Hmm. But Nikhil, what are you scared of?
- SPSpeaker
[laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah. [laughs] I think the, the world feels like it's breaking. [upbeat music] Two hot wars. Trade is collapsing. The rules that held the world together for 80 years are being rewritten. This is a conversation about survival, not the survival of a startup, but the survival of an entire generation. Martin Escobari knows what chaos looks like. He grew up in Bolivia in the 1980s. 35,000% inflation, eleven presidents in 10 years. His family lost everything in a revolution. He moved to Brazil, built through crisis, studied what separates great companies from the ones that don't make it. Martin is the Co-President of General Atlantic, one of the largest growth equity funds in the world. Later, I bring in Aryan. He's 21, grew up in Mumbai, cold emailed Sam Altman, got a meeting, moved to SF, started a company. I wanted to put them together and ask two questions. Let's start with the most important question. One personal: What does it take to survive chaos? Can it be taught? And one for India. We have a billion and a half people, more engineers than anywhere, more capital than before. Why have we never produced a truly global company? What's broken, and what would it take to fix it? [upbeat music] Scott?
- SPSpeaker
Yeah. All right. Um, let's do it.
- NKNikhil Kamath
How do I say your name? Is it Martin or Martin?
- MEMartin Escobari
Martin.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Martin.
- MEMartin Escobari
In India, they call me Martin, but you should call me Martin. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- 5:14 – 8:22
Engineering a happy life
- NKNikhil Kamath
Have you ever gotten into trouble for your last name, through an airport maybe?
- MEMartin Escobari
Oh, many a time.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah?
- MEMartin Escobari
N- not... [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
So it's Escobar and Escobari are different last names.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Right.
- MEMartin Escobari
Uh, one time, when, uh, an immigration officer of a country I, that I will not disclose said, "Are you related to Pablo?" And I corrected him that it's a completely different person.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Right.
- MEMartin Escobari
He didn't think that was funny, and so he sent me to the little room. [laughs] Two hours later, I was fine. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
How are you such a happy person? What is going on?
- MEMartin Escobari
How am I such a happy person? Life is too short, so I don't take myself too seriously. I take my work very seriously. I take my family life very serious, but I don't take myself very seriously And, uh, I try to enjoy every second. We have so few.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm. Has this been the case for a long time, or is this a revelation you had at some point in time?
- MEMartin Escobari
It's gotten better over time, and I have to credit my wife. She's a happy person, very happy.
- NKNikhil Kamath
I heard or read a very interesting story of how you met your wife. Would you like to start with that?
- MEMartin Escobari
I'm Bolivian. I was at Harvard getting my business s- school degree, and I decided I wanted to go work outside the US. The US felt too competitive. It's large, but very competitive. And I said, "I want a country that's large, I want there not to be a lot of competition, and I want there to be beautiful people," because I'm, uh, I'm, uh... I wanted to get married.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Right.
- MEMartin Escobari
Uh, Brazil, top of the list. So I get a job offer with the number one private equity group in Brazil, the 3G guys. They own Anheuser-Busch.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yes.
- MEMartin Escobari
They own Burger King. They're an amazing group of people.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yes.
- MEMartin Escobari
But they made a condition for my hiring, which is I learned s- Portuguese. And I said, "Will you pay for it?" And they said, "Of course." So I call my Brazilian friends and says, "Find me a beautiful, smart Brazilian PhD or master's students, and tell her I will pay her to talk to me."
- NKNikhil Kamath
Wow.
- MEMartin Escobari
And, uh, that first class-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... it was... it actually was an environment like this.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
It was a well-lit environment. We looked in each eyes. I was, like, smitten. I get home. My best friend is Danish.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
His name's Lars. He looks at me and he says, "What's going on?" And I said, "I met a really beautiful person."
- 8:22 – 12:19
Surviving Bolivia’s hyperinflation
- MEMartin Escobari
and a happy person.
- NKNikhil Kamath
How, how is Bolivia, Martin, to live in? How is Brazil? How is Bolivia? I've never been to either of these countries. How is life like there?
- MEMartin Escobari
Very different. So Bolivia in the '80s, Santa Cruz de la Sierra in the '80s was a tough place. I mean, America is freaking out about 5% inflation. In the '80s, we had 35,000% inflation. We had... In a 10-year period, we had 11 presidents. We had three coups d'états, uh, drug violence. Uh, it was a very, very tough place to, to, to grow up. Bolivia is a, i- is a divided country, um, very unequal country, uh, but one with natural beauty, gorgeous people. But my experience growing up in the '80s was e- was an experience of living in chaos. Uh, Brazil, which I arrive in my 20s, um, soon followed my, my beautiful Portuguese teacher, who became eventually my wife three years later, uh, is a happy place. Maybe that also has to do with me becoming happy. It's not just Daniela. Brazil has a happy vibe. I like to say Br- United States is like a salad bowl. They're all here, but they are Irish American, Indian American. In Brazilian, we're... We, and I say we because I bec- I, I identify as Brazilian. I became a Brazilian citizen. I dream in Portuguese. I- it's more of a soup, all the vegetables kind of fused together. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
What is Brazil's GDP per capita? I know India is about 3,000. Yeah, you-
- MEMartin Escobari
It's, it's... I'm gonna get it wrong, but 7 to $8,000.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Right. I was going to come to this question later, but because you've been investing for as long as you have, what changes in an economy when GDP per capita crosses three, and then what changes when it crosses $5,000 per capita?
- MEMartin Escobari
First, in the three to five, consumption explodes, and I know you're big in consumption, and you've got your incubator, and I love that.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Right on. We're there with you. We're... Consumer is a big part.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
From five to 10, healthcare and education explodes.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Because once you've got your refrigerator, once you've got your basic necessities done-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... once you're eating the foods you want to eat-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... the ultimate luxury is to not have to go to the public system of healthcare. The ultimate luxury is to afford your kid a better chance at becoming an entrepreneur, getting a better education. So you'll see those products, uh, rise further.
- NKNikhil Kamath
And what determines the scale at which this change happens?
- MEMartin Escobari
Good governance. India has it. Heavy investments in infrastructure. The last 10 years have been amazing, uh, for, for, for, for, for, for India. Domestic savings and equity culture. People want to own equity, not a fixed income, uh, culture. And perhaps-
- NKNikhil Kamath
How do you inculcate that?
- MEMartin Escobari
Role models. People who come from the bottom without cutting corners, build amazing businesses, and build wonderful lives, and they're not afraid to talk about it.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
And they come on your podcast, and they share that story.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
And that motivates a whole generation of kids that says, "No, I don't wanna go work for a multinational. I don't wanna go work for the government. I want to take risk- Because I will be rewarded with a wonderful life and have the, the pride of having built something that impacts the world in a positive way. So it's beautiful to see.
- 12:19 – 20:17
Trauma as the engine behind every entrepreneur
- MEMartin Escobari
It's happening in India, it's happening in Indonesia, it's happening in Mexico, it's happening in Brazil
- NKNikhil Kamath
I think there's something similar between an entrepreneur and a gangster.
- MEMartin Escobari
Huh. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
So few of them make it. So many die early. The odds of success are so low. Gangsters are celebrated via Hollywood, Bollywood in my case, and entrepreneurs via podcasts like mine.
- MEMartin Escobari
So you're the Bollywood of entrepreneurship.
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
Now I understand your business model. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
I, I wish it was a bit more of a business. Not yet, but maybe someday.
- MEMartin Escobari
Maybe it doesn't need to be a business.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah, I think so.
- MEMartin Escobari
The best things are not businesses. Oh, thank you very much.
- NKNikhil Kamath
I agree with that. I think the most fun things in life cannot start out with the sole intent of making money.
- MEMartin Escobari
Yeah. That's a question I always ask my entrepreneurs, "Why are you doing this?"
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm.
- MEMartin Escobari
"Why is this meaningful to you?" If the answer is, "I wanna be rich"-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... that's a lot less size... satisfying question than, "I wanna change healthcare in India."
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm.
- MEMartin Escobari
"I wanna be... bring affordable products to households in third-tier cities. I want to bring efficiency to the financial sector and digital inclusion." Those answers, a lot more resilient.
- NKNikhil Kamath
And what if I were to ask why again? Why do you want to bring healthcare? Why do you want to do that?
- MEMartin Escobari
Then when you get to the foundational story.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Which is?
- MEMartin Escobari
Your trauma.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm. Everyone seeking validation and, and attention in one way or another?
- MEMartin Escobari
No, not necessarily. Um, this is a controversial position that I have-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm
- MEMartin Escobari
... based on entirely on empirical evidence. Uh, through my work and through my not-for-profit activities, met thousands-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... of entrepreneurs. Hundreds, no, thousands that are successful. The journey of an entrepreneur is so hard because, like the gangsters, so many die.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- 20:17 – 25:31
Built-for-turbulence companies and spear fishing the storm
- MEMartin Escobari
So when my internet company almost died, 'cause the internet, you're too young.
- NKNikhil Kamath
I was alive at, in the 2000s, I was there.
- MEMartin Escobari
But you weren't-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah
- MEMartin Escobari
... an entrepreneur at the time.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
Uh, so the, in the valley of death-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... in the moment of disbelief-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... um, I lost faith-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... in my ability to create in the emerging markets. I thought Brazil is too hard.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
And I thought about giving up.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
But I'm a nerd at heart.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm.
- MEMartin Escobari
And I said, "How about I study this?" Because if I look around, there are some people that have made it in Brazil. I go jogging in the Jardins. There are beautiful houses with very nice, happy-looking people, uh, that are, have done very well for themselves. So I partner with my tutor from, uh, Winthrop House at Harvard, and we wrote a book, which, um, it's, it's, it's called Paired Company Analysis.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Uh, it's a little bit like genetics, where when you, the question of is it biology or is it the environment, you look at twins separated at birth-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... uh, uh, lived separate lives and-
- NKNikhil Kamath
What do you think?
- MEMartin Escobari
Huh?
- NKNikhil Kamath
What do you think?
- MEMartin Escobari
It's both.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Nature or nurture?
- MEMartin Escobari
It's both. 50/50, of course. [laughs] Eh, so we chose 10 companies-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- 25:31 – 31:00
Is America still worth the journey, and what is wealth for
- NKNikhil Kamath
Then why, why is America as expensive as it is?
- MEMartin Escobari
There's very good reasons to buy America.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Which is?
- MEMartin Escobari
It's, it's the most innovative economy in the world, self-sufficient. Pax Americana has produced a system of world trade and finance where the US is, is the captain, and it still attracts the world's brightest and most ambitious people in the world. Half the unicorn founders are foreign-born, but choose this country because in this country they believe they can be, uh, successful. International applications to the elite universities in the United States are down 20%.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
That is a leading indicator of losing some of what made you great.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Uh, I think it's temporary. I think we're living through a moment of adjustment. Um, some of the adjustments hopefully will lead to fairer trade, a safer Europe, uh, more balanced and diverse viewpoints in universities, but this moment of adjustment is one of great angst and anxiety.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm. Because you guys are from different places, has the attractiveness of America gone down in the last three months or up?
- SPSpeaker
[laughs]
- SPSpeaker
I, I think totally. I think that, um, I know a lot of my friends from South Africa who were very excited to come and study in the United States, and I think there's a- an uncertainty that exists in the air right now that makes it really difficult to invest your entire future in a country where not only you're unsure what is going to happen in terms of your own outcomes post your degree, but there's a almost a certain sense that perhaps you're unwanted. Um, and that's difficult, right? And in a world that is still competitive for international talent, I think a lot of my friends are thinking, "What if I go and study in Canada? What if I go and study in the UK?"
- NKNikhil Kamath
You gave me a book earlier today about Chuck Feeney. Tell us a bit about him.
- MEMartin Escobari
So Chuck was a Navy man.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
He, uh, served in the US Navy and, uh, while serving I think the Korea War, he observed something very unusual, which is very rich commerce happening at the Navy bases of the US and the Pacific.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Because these bases-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... were not Philippines or Vietnam, but they were not America either, so there was tax-free trade.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
And he says, "We can do this in airports."
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
And he's one of the pioneers of the duty-free industry.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
Creates a business called World Duty Free, which he sells to, uh, Louis Vuitton Group, uh, for a couple billion.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
And he's confronted with a wealth that he never thought.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
I'm sure you went through this. Uh, and he's like, "What is the purpose of my wealth?" And his answer is a beautiful answer. He says, "The purpose of my wealth is to improve the human condition today, not tomorrow."
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- 31:00 – 37:19
Capitalism, communism, and learning to think critically
- NKNikhil Kamath
Often, when Confucius is cited in society, we're on the precipice of changing from a capitalistic world to some form of socialism and communism. And like you spoke about Bolivia earlier, unequal divided societies like we see today also very often lead to some form of socialism or cap- or communism. You think the world is there now?
- MEMartin Escobari
I think in a s-
- NKNikhil Kamath
And we all have amnesia. We, we didn't grow up in Bolivia. We have never seen it. We've read about it in books.
- MEMartin Escobari
Yeah. Uh, my crystal ball is not perfect, but, um, extreme inequality, in my book, leads to either revolution or taxation.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Extreme taxation in turn also leads to revolution.
- MEMartin Escobari
Potentially. Uh, we're not there yet. Uh, so I, I think we do face that dilemma. And by taxation, it... There are different... Trust busting by Roosevelt was a form of taxation.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
I- it's major restructuring of the rules of the game for leveling a little bit.
- SPSpeaker
Um, I would say I'm scared of a world where countries are less friendly to each other.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Who do you blame that on, if you had to?
- SPSpeaker
Um, I think it has to do-
- NKNikhil Kamath
It doesn't have to be a person. It could be an idea.
- SPSpeaker
Yeah, I'd say it's a phenomenon.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- SPSpeaker
I think it's a phenomenon to do with just, like, economic instability and inequality. I think that people are looking for someone to blame, as they've been seeing, uh, kind of other people get richer and themselves being left out. Uh, technology particularly has left out a lot of people. And so as a result, people are kind of like, "Is it immigration? Is it all these other countries?" And so as a result, they're, they're, they're rebuking, and I think that they're electing leaders who, uh, kind of know and recognize that.
- SPSpeaker
Yeah, I mean, I think the-
- NKNikhil Kamath
It's likely
- SPSpeaker
... the pushback part is why I think a-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah
- SPSpeaker
... direction, a turn towards something medieval or feudalistic is just as likely as a turn towards something socialist.
- SPSpeaker
Yeah
- SPSpeaker
Because there are interests that have a lot of power. There are corporations-
- SPSpeaker
Yeah
- SPSpeaker
... and there are people that have... uh, that are very invested in the system continuing to be as it is-
- SPSpeaker
Yeah
- SPSpeaker
... or escalating to an even more unequal place.
- SPSpeaker
Yeah.
- SPSpeaker
And I think it's very hard to overcome that.
- SPSpeaker
Yeah.
- SPSpeaker
Um, so I, I personally really... I... Sorry. I really worry about-
- 37:19 – 43:02
Submarino, the IPO crash, and the India that almost was
- MEMartin Escobari
Spent two years in New York working in consulting.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Then I went to business school, uh, also at Harvard, and decided I wanted to go into investing-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... and, in Brazil, and that's how I landed in, in Brazil with my girlfriend at the time and, and-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Is it the Spanish teacher still?
- MEMartin Escobari
Portuguese teacher.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Portuguese teacher still?
- MEMartin Escobari
Yes.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Okay.
- MEMartin Escobari
28 years together.
- NKNikhil Kamath
How long did you date before you were married?
- MEMartin Escobari
Three years.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Okay.
- MEMartin Escobari
I know you're not married.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah. [laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm a voice from the future.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah. Maybe I need to learn Spanish.
- MEMartin Escobari
[laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
You know someone? [laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
I recommend Portuguese.
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
But you can also learn Spanish. Uh, let me give you the case-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... for marriage.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
Uh, let's say your life is an adventure.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
And you, you decide to make your life an adventure.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- 43:02 – 51:18
Aryan’s story: cold-emailing Sam Altman from Mumbai
- NKNikhil Kamath
from India. Moved to the Valley, started a company in AI, and I thought you could teach both of us together. So he will ask you what makes sense from the lens of a 20-year-old, and I'll ask you what makes sense from a 39, because I still don't want to say 40. I have a few months left.
- MEMartin Escobari
[laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
Enjoy them. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs] Another thing about Aryan, this is my personal agenda coming in again, and Aryan has an issue. He told me the last time I saw him, he's finding it hard to communicate with girls. I think it's a problem with society today, because everybody's so hooked onto their devices. And I thought, "Why not make Aryan popular-
- MEMartin Escobari
[laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
... and see what changes in his personal life?"
- MEMartin Escobari
[laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
So this will be interesting. So I'm gonna call Aryan in, and then you teach both of us, and we will ask you questions from a 20-year-old and a 40-year-old's lens. [laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
Hi. Hi, Aryan.
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
Nice to meet you.
- NKNikhil Kamath
So Aryan, let's start with the most important question. Since the last time we spoke, what has happened to your dating life?
- MEMartin Escobari
[laughs]
- ARAryan
And this is all gonna be public now?
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- ARAryan
Yeah.
- NKNikhil Kamath
You're building a strategy background-
- ARAryan
Yeah
- NKNikhil Kamath
... right? Like, how to approach it.
- ARAryan
I- I'll- I'll start with the problems.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- ARAryan
Um, and it's, it's not huge problems, but these are what I feel are problems. Uh, and this is also... I... This... If it goes public, then I've never spoken to my parents about this, so this is how everyone finds out. Um, I think... And this is partly a San Francisco problem. I think New York is a little bit different. Um, but, like... And this is a controversy, too. People debate this a lot. But, uh, I feel like people around me, m- plus, minus two years, um-
- NKNikhil Kamath
You're 21 now
- ARAryan
... yeah, um, are not... Like, in, in San Francisco specifically, I think the culture of doing things and, and like, uh, going out, and, uh, being, like, open to being approached and open to approaching is not, uh, what it used to be, at least from what I hear. Uh, and so even if you want to go approach people, or if, if you are interested in dating or, like, engaging in, in, like, a social life, it's not very easy to do it in that s- in that part of the world. I think it helps when you don't think... I think the, the, the biggest thing is just the eight seconds of courage thing. You just do it when you think of it. If you think more than eight seconds, you're not going to do it. Um, and so-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Where do you read this?
- ARAryan
I, I, I mo- more... This, this was some- somewhere. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- ARAryan
And, and then, and like, I, I actually went to Brazil, which was-
- NKNikhil Kamath
There, I did not help.
- 51:18 – 1:01:53
The four mega-trends and where to put 100 billion
- NKNikhil Kamath
So you are my co-host today. We are both going to ask Martin questions, you from your lens, me from mine. So if you had 100 billion and you had a blank slate, Martin is starting afresh. Okay, no baggage from anything you did historically. Where the world sits today, at the valuations of today, you have to allocate the 100 billion, and you can only pick three industries.
- ARAryan
Okay.
- NKNikhil Kamath
What would they be and why?
- ARAryan
The Martin Vision Fund.
- MEMartin Escobari
The Martin Vision... But not the vision fund. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
Uh, listen, I think there are four major waves transforming our world. Transition to a digital economy turbocharged by AI.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Okay.
- MEMartin Escobari
This is the biggest tsunami. The transition to digital is a 25-year wave. AI is a five-year wave. They're one building on each other, and that is fantastic. The second wave is the transformation of the healthcare sector.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Increasing capacity in the south, and healthcare innovation to contain cost and treat the untreatable diseases in the West.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Also, like, export healthcare, in a way.
- MEMartin Escobari
The third is, uh, energy transition away from fossil fuels. Um, and if we needed a reminder of how fragile our dependence on fossil fuels, forget global warming, think Suez. And the fourth one is the rise of the new consumer in the South. Uh, I think for the next 10, 20 years, these four forces will generate tremendous opportunity for anybody who wants to be an entrepreneur.
- NKNikhil Kamath
When you say new consumer in the global south, what do you-
- MEMartin Escobari
It's your question, what, what happens to consumption-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm
- MEMartin Escobari
... from 3,000 GDP to 5,000 GDP and 8,000 GDP.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Do you suspect those new consumers will buy American products or native to their own countries?
- MEMartin Escobari
It will, it, it will be very, very specific, but the cost of launching a new brand has never been lower. The cost of distributing a new brand has never been lower. So the chances that local champions win have never been higher.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Would you say geopolitical tensions from a multipolar world will have inflation present at a rate higher than our historical past, which in turn leads to different kind of opportunities? The geopolitics will remain complicated for the next 10 years?
- MEMartin Escobari
I think geopolitics will remain complicated.
- NKNikhil Kamath
And who will benefit from that? Which industry?
- MEMartin Escobari
It goes back to what I learned with volatility in Brazil in my book. If you're fit, if you have access to capital, and you can move with agility, all this volatility becomes your friend, and your friends at 3G are experts at this. Whenever there is fear, they are not fearful, and they mobilize capital and resources and smart young people to capture opportunities.
- NKNikhil Kamath
And they kinda go all in, right?
- MEMartin Escobari
They go all in.
- NKNikhil Kamath
They don't do much, but they go all in each time they do.
- MEMartin Escobari
They're very focused, concentrated pos- concentrated bets.
- NKNikhil Kamath
You're also concentrated, but not as much as them.
- MEMartin Escobari
Mu- much less Very different business.
- NKNikhil Kamath
So amongst the trends that you mentioned, Martin, which would you rank as the biggest opportunity if the biggest one were to be one, the second-biggest one were to be two, and then three and four?
- 1:01:53 – 1:10:25
Why India has never built a global company
- NKNikhil Kamath
gonna come to the burning question of today. Something relevant for India is we have a billion and a half people. We have more engineers than anywhere in the world. Because you've looked at India so closely, why do we not have a global company that has come out of India?
- SPSpeaker
Ha. Infosys, potentially, you could say is a-
- NKNikhil Kamath
That's services.
- SPSpeaker
Uh, you... A global tech company. I believe-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Actually, a global any kind of company
- SPSpeaker
... I believe it takes a pioneer to create the role model effect. It can be done. There's access to capital, unfair access to human capital that's AI trained at the right time. Uh, you need the courage to do what has never done before.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Why hasn't it happened, though? We've had this for a long time.
- SPSpeaker
I think in, in, in business services, I think the, the, the, the, the BPO companies are relatively global.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm.
- SPSpeaker
Um-
- NKNikhil Kamath
They're more like a labor arbitrage industry, which-
- SPSpeaker
It's global.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hm.
- SPSpeaker
Um, your, your capital markets are ready. I, I really believe in the, in the, in the, in the role model effect. If you have one company that does it, it, it gives courage to others.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Like you have NuBank. Why-
- SPSpeaker
It's a multi-country company.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah, why, why haven't we had that?
- SPSpeaker
Well, you, you, you have Flipkart, you have PhonePe.
- NKNikhil Kamath
They all sell in India only.
- SPSpeaker
Well, India is also 1.3 billion people. You, you, you have the curse of a domestic market, the blessing of a humongous domestic market.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Do you think that's what it is? Because they're-
- SPSpeaker
It starts with that.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hm.
- SPSpeaker
Uh, in... If I asked the same question about Brazil, there, there are very few global... I'm actually very proud that, uh, we have, we have a, a company called Wellhub-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm
- SPSpeaker
... which has become a global leader. It's a benefits, wellness benefits corporate plan. App, app-based. You can go to any gym in the world if you... You, you should... You'd see him in your travel.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- SPSpeaker
I'll, I'll hook you up. Um, he had the courage to move to New York. He had the courage to hire a multi-country team.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- SPSpeaker
Uh, he had the courage to invest heavily in this international expansion. And I think when it goes public, hopefully, it will be an example that it can be done. It is uncomfortable.
- 1:10:25 – 1:16:14
How General Atlantic is built: perpetual capital and pooled bets
- NKNikhil Kamath
Okay. Some things I find very intriguing about GA is its perpetual capital.
- MEMartin Escobari
So we have an unusual fundraising structure where we have standard funds, and that we launch every two, three years. Then we have managed accounts that invest alongside these funds at, that are fundraising at any time. Uh, and then part of these managed accounts are evergreen, so they're always renewing so they can go forever. Uh, the evergreen is innovation because these are people that wanna hold things for longer and are constantly renewing. But this idea of having standard funds and simultaneously have managed accounts have the great advantage, uh, of smoothing out the fundraising cyclicality.
- NKNikhil Kamath
And you have a common pool where all the partners get paid?
- MEMartin Escobari
Yeah, that's a big thing. So, uh, we're the most global of funds. Most of our peers have regional or sectoral funds that are rather independent. Uh, we allocate everything through a central pool. That's super valuable in a volatile world, 'cause you can change your mind and you're not fixed to your boxes. Uh, part of making that work is pooled economics. So when I was running Brazil, my comp wasn't based on what I produced in Brazil. My comp was a percent of the global production, that over time if Brazil did well, uh, would- the percent would go higher, but I'd have no incentive to push Brazil at the expense of other things that were very good.
- NKNikhil Kamath
I interviewed the Anthropic guy last month.
- MEMartin Escobari
He's fantastic.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Dario. He's fantastic.
- MEMartin Escobari
Dario is, uh, one of my favorite people in the world.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Really?
- MEMartin Escobari
Yeah, I really like Dario.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Why is that?
- MEMartin Escobari
He's a biologist.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
He's idealist. He's built an amazing company, and if he does things right, I think history will remember him. Uh, and he's such a humble-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah
- MEMartin Escobari
... idealistic person. And young. He's 41. He's your age.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- MEMartin Escobari
Um, it's, uh... I feel very privileged to have met him and-
- NKNikhil Kamath
39. [laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
[laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
Let me keep it for a few more months. [upbeat music] [upbeat music] So quickly, we have two new friends on the table. I'm gonna give you guys some time to introduce yourself. Maybe Florian, you would like to go first?
- SPSpeaker
Sure. Um, so first of all, thank you for inviting me for dinner. Um, I'm Florian, um, Brandt. Um, started out, uh, as an entrepreneur, I guess many moons ago, or like fif- 15 years ago. Um, and due to, I guess, very personal experiences, uh, with m- seeing friends and family members developing very severe mental health disorders and not finding the help or healing that they were looking for, started a, a mental health, um, drug development company, a biotech company, uh, Atai Life Sciences in 2017, 2018, uh, with a goal to really make a true leap forward for mental health patients, uh, that, uh, often, um, to today's medication that is available, um, or also therapy don't, um, respond very well. And-
- NKNikhil Kamath
I'm gonna ask you a tough question.
- SPSpeaker
Please.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Summarize what you do in one line.
- SPSpeaker
Uh, I'm, uh, a drug developer.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Why do you smile when you say that?
- SPSpeaker
Because I guess you could read into this some controversial, uh, things if you want to. Uh, but yeah.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Elaborate with another line.
- SPSpeaker
That... So, so my passion is really to bring, bring better options, better treatment options to mental health patients.
- 1:16:14 – 1:24:23
Manifestation, the 8-second rule, and the checklist for great companies
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs] Not necessarily.
- SPSpeaker
So were you? Or-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Huh?
- SPSpeaker
Were you?
- NKNikhil Kamath
No, of course not.
- SPSpeaker
[laughs] Last year I was reading a lot of Jung's work-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- SPSpeaker
Mm
- SPSpeaker
... around synchronicity, and you feel like everything's aligning, and things are working out.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- SPSpeaker
And then when things start falling in place, similar to what you said, Nikhil, around the fact that now the next worry once things fall in place is to hold it all in place, so then you start to believe in fate.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Because?
- SPSpeaker
Because should you not, like we talked about in our, in our conversation, should you not, then you worry that it may be taken away from you.
- NKNikhil Kamath
By that logic, very successful people should be the most religious of people. That's not often the case, though.
- SPSpeaker
Mm. True. But then you can also... One can argue if this is correlation or causal.
- NKNikhil Kamath
What do you think is synchronicity according to Jung?
- SPSpeaker
According to Jung, synchronicity is w- the, in the spiritual sense, it's when things line up. Like for example, "Oh, you know, I really wanna meet some great private market guy who can give me great advice on how to build a fund." And then I'm walking down the street and I see him, and I'm like, "Are you Martin?" And then he's like, "Yeah, let's have a coffee." That would be synchronicity.
- SPSpeaker
Mm. Manifestation.
- SPSpeaker
Do you believe in that?
- SPSpeaker
Ooh. Uh, I do believe the power of manifestation, in that if you visualize what would you want, you're deciding that what you want, and that's, is more effective than the eight-second rule. You go for it. What's the eight-second rule?
- ARAryan
No, we were talking about cold approaching and just saying the most useful framework that I've found is just go do it when you think of it instead of thinking so much.
- SPSpeaker
Yep.
- ARAryan
The honest answer is I still don't do it as much, so.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Hmm.
- ARAryan
Doesn't jive-
- NKNikhil Kamath
Why not? Is it ego?
- ARAryan
No, I think that there is a part of it which is I'm shy, which, uh, i- in, with s- in certain s- social situations. I think these settings I'm very open to talking.
- SPSpeaker
That's a generational problem.
- ARAryan
No, it's, it's a him problem.
- SPSpeaker
I think it's his generation problem.
- 1:24:23 – 1:28:36
Failure, dead ends, and the courage to change your mind
- NKNikhil Kamath
Culturally in, say, Israel for example, they like the fact that somebody tried and failed, or maybe in the US.
- MEMartin Escobari
That's-
- SPSpeaker
Same holds true for Germany, by the way.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah?
- MEMartin Escobari
Hmm.
- SPSpeaker
I think that is, you know, currently in Europe, but also in Germany, a big, big thing that holds Europe back, you know, the willingness to start and fail, um, kind of try again. There's a huge c- cultural stigma. Um, I didn't know that actually about India.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Yeah.
- SPSpeaker
That, that this is actually very, very true there.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Do you think that's true, Martin?
- SPSpeaker
Yeah.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Are you more likely to fund a founder who has failed three times versus someone who has never tried?
- MEMartin Escobari
Listen, the, the, the failure creates scars, learnings. How you fail and what you learned determines the answer to your question
- SPSpeaker
They have to be-
- MEMartin Escobari
Like, if you fail because you cheated on the taxes or you... That is a line that's very hard. Like-
- SPSpeaker
Correct
- MEMartin Escobari
... the, there are some mistakes that it's very hard as an investor to forgive, and it goes back to how do we create this positive dynamic? Um, now to how do we change this, is when people like you talk about your failures.
- SPSpeaker
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Successful people who talk... On the road to f- success-
- SPSpeaker
Yeah
- MEMartin Escobari
... there were failures.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Very easy. I have so many. They could all be done. [laughs]
- SPSpeaker
Exactly. So you should start. You have 20 million people listening right now. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
No, you know, I have a theory. If I want the youth of India to change one thing, just one thing, is they need to stop thinking that changing their mind is some kind of hypocrisy.
- SPSpeaker
Agreed.
- MEMartin Escobari
Oh.
- SPSpeaker
Agreed.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Like, hypocrisy has to move from a bad word to a good word.
- MEMartin Escobari
I have a great phrase.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
When confronted with new facts, I change my mind.
- 1:28:36 – 1:33:44
The venture-to-IPO value chain, monopolies, and young revolutionaries
- NKNikhil Kamath
If Aryan were to start a company today, and he comes to Andy, you put a certain amount of money, you buy 20% of Aryan's company. Then you take Aryan to private equity.
- SPSpeaker
Mm.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Martin puts in a little bit more money-
- SPSpeaker
Into the-
- NKNikhil Kamath
... and takes 30% of the company. Now Aryan is left with less. This happens a couple of times over and over again, and when you all are done making money, you come to my market, the public market, and you offload really expensive price to market equity on unsuspecting people like me and colleagues of mine who are in the retail ecosystems in public markets. Do you think that's fair? I think it's happening with AI right now. That's why I'm asking.
- SPSpeaker
I don't know if it's fair, but from a venture side, I took the deal first. I trusted Aryan to say, "I think that kid has something in him. I'm ready to bet on that horse." By the time the horse comes to you, it's won a couple races. Of course the price is gonna be a little jacked up. Whether it's gonna perform again might be the 10th race that breaks the horse. That's my point of view.
- MEMartin Escobari
Fair is a tricky word, because we have free will, and the l- further along Aryan is on his journey, the m- less risk we have. There's more we know, there's more data, and if he's gone public, yes, for the successful companies, a little less return, but a lot less risk.
- SPSpeaker
Mm-hmm.
- MEMartin Escobari
Now, it's very important in any market to have a combination of retail investors and so- very sophisticated institutional investors-
- SPSpeaker
Mm-hmm
- MEMartin Escobari
... who have more resources to just make sure he's doing what-
- SPSpeaker
Yeah
- MEMartin Escobari
... he's supposed to be doing.
- NKNikhil Kamath
No, I presented my question in a certain manner just for effect. I think we need 100 times more risk capital in India.
- SPSpeaker
Yes.
- NKNikhil Kamath
From people like Martin, from people like Andy.
- SPSpeaker
Yes.
- NKNikhil Kamath
Florian can bring in German money, and Aryan can move back. [laughs]
- SPSpeaker
And then, and then there's Nikhil. What is Nikhil doing in all this? [laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
He's collecting his mark commission
- SPSpeaker
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
... to all of it.
- SPSpeaker
And, and then the news reads, "Nikhil Kamath brings investment back to India."
- MEMartin Escobari
Risk free. He wins in every transaction. [laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
What, what else, guys? Anything, anyone have an interesting idea they'd like to share?
- ARAryan
I was gonna say something on the, the public piece, which is, like, now you don't have to go public, right? Because there's enough money in the private markets. I think that's maybe net negative, um, versus this ... Like, there is a little bit of this dump effect where sometimes companies go public at a, whatever, crazy price, and then over time it'll correct down, and then maybe they build back up, maybe they never go back. Like, the 2021 wave was mostly like that. And, but, but there's also, like, a lot of people who, who would like Stripe, but they probably will never get Stripe. Um, and that trade-off is not ... Like, I think it's ... That's maybe ... I, I don't know what the right answer to that is, but it seems that it's net not great for normal people to not have access to things like Stripe and-
- MEMartin Escobari
I agree. Waiting till you're a trillion dollars, like SpaceX, to go public seems like a long time. [laughs]
- ARAryan
[laughs]
- NKNikhil Kamath
[laughs]
- MEMartin Escobari
Your friend, Elon Musk. Um-
Episode duration: 1:33:44
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