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No Priors Ep. 87 | With Co-CEO of Waymo Dmitri Dolgov

In this episode of No Priors, Dmitri Dolgov, Co-CEO of Waymo, joins Sarah and Elad to explore the evolution and advancements of Waymo's self-driving technology from its inception at Google to its current real-world deployment. Dmitri also shares insights into the technological breakthroughs and complexities of achieving full autonomy, the design innovations of Waymo’s sixth generation driverless cars, and the broader applications of Waymo’s advanced technology. They also discuss Waymo's strategic approach to scaling amidst regulation, deployment in cities like Phoenix and San Francisco, and the transformative potential of autonomous driving on car ownership and urban infrastructure. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @Dmitri_Dolgov Shownotes: 00:00 Introduction 00:15 History of Self-Driving at Google 00:29 DARPA Challenges and Early Involvement 01:39 Formation of Waymo 01:53 Industry Lineage and Early Skepticism 03:05 Initial Goals and Milestones 4:33 Pivot to Full Autonomy 04:50 Scaling and Deployment 05:29 Generational Breakthroughs 06:59 Choosing Deployment Cities 09:26 Technological Advancements 11:01 Evaluating Safety 14:41 Regulatory Stance and Trust 16:52 Future of Autonomous Driving 23:19 Business Strategy and Partnerships 26:06 Changing Urban Mobility Trends 26:40 Challenges and Misconceptions in Self-Driving Timelines 28:43 The Role of Traditional OEMs in an Autonomous Future 30:54 Designing Cars for Autonomous Ride-Hailing 33:42 Scaling Responsibly 35:18 Generalizability and Future Applications of AI 37:10 The Complexity of Achieving Full Autonomy 42:58 The Importance of Data and Iteration in AI Development 46:13 Reflecting on the Journey and Future of Waymo

Sarah GuohostElad GilhostDmitri Dolgovguest
Oct 24, 202444mWatch on YouTube ↗

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  1. 0:000:15

    Introduction

    1. SG

      (music plays) Hi, listeners. Welcome to No Priors. Today, we're hanging out with Dmitry Dolgov, co-CEO of Waymo. Waymo started as the Chauffeur Project within Google back in 2009, and eventually

  2. 0:150:29

    History of Self-Driving at Google

    1. SG

      spun off as its own company. Now it provides over 100,000 paid rides each week across San Francisco, LA, Austin, and Phoenix. I love taking Waymos, and I'm regularly campaigning for better South Bay coverage. We're excited to dig

  3. 0:291:39

    DARPA Challenges and Early Involvement

    1. SG

      into all things robo-taxis, self-driving, what it takes to deploy this technology on a mass scale, and what's next for Waymo.

    2. EG

      Hi, Dmitry. Thank you so much for joining us today.

    3. DD

      Thank you for having me.

    4. EG

      Yeah. Uh, maybe we can start off with just a little bit of a history of, um, self-driving at Google, how you got involved, and how things have evolved over time.

    5. DD

      I've been do- doing this for, you know, quite a few years. I think, uh, about 18 now. I got started in, uh, around 2006. Uh, this was the time of the DARPA Grand Challenges. Um, this was when, you know, DARPA organized, uh, a few competitions, uh, that they called the Grand Challenge in robotics, uh, uh, for the, uh, with the purpose of advancing research in autonomous vehicles, right? So the first competition they had was the first Grand Challenge. This was, uh, the challenge there was to create a car that could drive autonomously in a desert. I just completed this deck and why I'm gonna, you know, drive for about 100 miles. Uh, nobody succeeded, but, you know, there was a lot of great progress that was made, and then they repeated the challenge, and a few teams succeeded. So on the heels of that, they created another challenge th- called the DARPA Urban Challenge, uh, where the setup was, uh, kind of a mock,

  4. 1:391:53

    Formation of Waymo

    1. DD

      uh, city that was supposed to imitate, you know, what driving on public roads is like. And that's the one, uh, that, uh, I was involved in. I was on Stanford's team. This was kind of my, you know, uh, moment where it clicked for me.

    2. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DD

      I saw the, you know, the future and

  5. 1:533:05

    Industry Lineage and Early Skepticism

    1. DD

      the benefits, and I've never looked back. That's what I've been doing ever since. Uh, and then, uh, we started this project at Google in 2009. Uh, it was just me and a small group of us, uh, and then that grew into what now is Waymo, uh, when we started the company, uh, in the very beginning of 2017.

    2. EG

      All right. Yeah, it seems like a lot of the, um, lineage or history of this field all traces back to a handful of labs. You know, it's like Sebastian Thrun's lab at Stanford and a few others, and it seems like the founders of a lot of the companies that ended up eventually existing in this ecosystem all came out of the same sort of cohort of people, which I always think is fascinating to think about in terms of lineages.

    3. DD

      Yeah, yeah. No, definitely a, definitely a small world. The CMU team and the Stanford team, there was, uh, a few, uh, people who came and started this project at Google-

    4. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    5. DD

      ... in, in 2009, uh, came from those teams.

    6. EG

      Mm-hmm. I think when you started working on this, this was considered a little bit of a crazy thing to do, right? It was early on. A lot of parts of the waves of deep learning hadn't really quite happened yet, um, in terms of o- applications across all sorts of areas, like AlexNet hadn't existed yet, like all these other sorts of things that-

    7. DD

      No, nothing existed, right? (laughs)

    8. EG

      Yeah, yeah, yeah.

    9. DD

      Uh, and you're, you're absolutely right. Uh, people, uh, you know, heard a lot about us being crazy and it's, you know, never going to work. In all honesty with ourselves-

    10. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    11. DD

      ... we're not exactly

  6. 3:054:33

    Initial Goals and Milestones

    1. DD

      sure if, you know, we are just a little bit crazy or, you know, completely, yeah, insane, uh, when we're trying to go after this problem.

    2. SG

      Did you treat it as an open-ended research project, or you treated it as like how you had an idea in your mind of, like, an end point date where this would be viable on public roads?

    3. DD

      More of the former, but it was not, it was not research, right? So no, you know, and then the kind of the university DARPA Challenge date, it was a research project. Uh, yeah. Uh, then when we started Google, it, you know, was u- under the belief that, you know, we can make it work. Uh, and if we can, then the impact, the positive impact of this technology on the world and the mission is, is worth it. Uh, but it was early days, so we actually, you know, uh, had very little data to, you know, go by in terms of, you know, uh, you know, thinking about how long it's gonna take and how hard the problem is going to be.

    4. EG

      How long did you think it was gonna take? Like, at the time that you started working on this?

    5. DD

      Uh ...

    6. SG

      In a-

    7. DD

      Oh, I, I don't know if we had, you know, a specific date, but I think that was actually the first question that we posed.

    8. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    9. DD

      It's like, let's not build a product, right? In the first, you know, couple of years or so-

    10. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    11. DD

      ... we didn't have, like, a, you know, product in mind or, you know, uh, a target date in mind. The first order of business was to explore the space, right? So we, you know, towards that end, we created some milestones for ourselves, uh, with the goal of prototyping and learning and just understanding. So after those two years, we said, "Ah, okay, you know, there's something there. Let's start talking about, you know, what the product could be." And actually, our first product that we thought was gonna be viable, uh, was, you know, what nowadays you would call kind of an advanced driver

  7. 4:334:50

    Pivot to Full Autonomy

    1. DD

      assist system, right? And we had some expectations of, you know, a, a small number of years that it would take for us to get there. Uh, when, you know, we, after working on it for a while and making more progress on kind of the core of the technology, we decided that was not the, you know, right path for us, that we want to go after full autonomy. That was, you know, that made that pivot around 2013.

    2. EG

      You're

  8. 4:505:29

    Scaling and Deployment

    1. EG

      now doing something like 100,000 rides a week, so five million rides a year sort of annualized out, which is incredible. What was the inflection point, or what suddenly caused that sort of volume to happen or all these things to come together? 'Cause it feels like a reasonably recent phenomenon in some sense.

    2. DD

      Yeah, you're right. Uh, but th- those are discrete, you know, some discrete jumps. So yeah, kind of if, you know, we rewind the clock a little bit, I think in my mind there were a few kind of generational discontinuous steps-

    3. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    4. DD

      ... on kind of that progression from, you know, that point in 2013 when we said let's go for it to where we are today. Right, so exactly right, you know, 100,000 trips per week, more than a million miles per week and growing, you know, exponentially.

    5. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    6. DD

      So some interesting ones were, you know, in, uh, uh, 2015, that was kind of our zero to

  9. 5:296:59

    Generational Breakthroughs

    1. DD

      one moment. This is when, you know, for the first time, we put a car on the road. Uh, there was that, you know, our, what we call the, you know, third generation, uh, of our system. This was the, uh, third generation of our, you know, self-driving, uh, hardware suite, you know, sensors, computer, and we put it on a custom-designed vehicle that we called the Firefly.

    2. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DD

      Right? We took a few rides with nobody behind the wheel, zero to one moment. Uh, then the next, uh, evolution in that kind of generational step was our fourth generation of our driver. Those are the Pacifica minivans.

    4. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    5. DD

      Um, uh, with the fourth generation of the Waymo hardware suite. And we deployed those, uh, uh, in a full autonomous mode in Arizona i- in Chandler, and we actually opened it up to the public in 2020.Right? Uh, but at that point, uh, we... The focus was on doing it, uh, repeatedly, right? And the focus was on, uh, maturing the, you know, the technology, the building of the driver, the evaluation of the driver-

    6. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DD

      ... and of doing releases in a regular cadence, getting it out to real customers, hearing from the customers, right? Understanding the feedback, you know, and iterating. So that was the focus of that fourth generation, was not, you know, to grow and scale and capture the market, right? And then at that point, we, uh, made the decision to jump to what, you know, we now call the fifth generation of the Waymo Driver. It's on the JLR, uh, IP. This is what you see in, you know, in the fleet today, in, in those four cities, uh, uh, Phoenix, San Francisco, LA, and you know, Austin.

    8. SG

      I thought it was very smart actually, that you started in Arizona, um-

    9. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SG

      ... versus in California. And I think, you know, for example, um-

    11. DD

      Mm-hmm.

  10. 6:599:26

    Choosing Deployment Cities

    1. SG

      ... I, I think crews ran into some issues in San Francisco where there was activists like putting cones on the cars and trying to stop them and doing other things. And so it seems smart to, to start in Arizona. I was just sort of curious what are the criteria that led you to-

    2. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    3. SG

      ... to start that as a sort of a test bed or a place to-

    4. DD

      So I guess, you know, it depends on the different time, you know, horizons. So in, you know, in the fourth, on the fourth generation, we picked, uh, a deployment area that was kind of medium complexity. Uh, and the goal there was, as I mentioned, is to kind of go end to end.

    5. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    6. DD

      So we picked an environment where we thought it was, you know, we check enough of the boxes to, you know, help us learn the most important things that we wanted to learn and de-risk, right? While... And that was a deployment. Uh, and then there's the development of the system. So for the development of the system, you wanna go after the hardest problems possible, right? You wanna go after the densest environments, you wanna go after the harshest weather.

    7. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    8. DD

      So we've kind of in parallel been doing that. So we've made a decision to deploy, you know, in Chandler in 2020-

    9. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    10. DD

      ... you know, to learn from the end-to-end system, while, you know, pushing on developing the system. Then when we, we've, uh, you know, learned enough and we made that discontinuous jump to the fifth generation of our driver, and then we said, "Okay, like that's the platform we believe that we wanna take to scale."

    11. SG

      What's the hardest environment for a self-driving car?

    12. DD

      So, density matters.

    13. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    14. DD

      Speed matters.

    15. SG

      Yeah.

    16. DD

      Uh, weather matters.

    17. SG

      Okay.

    18. DD

      So kind of, you know, where, you know, those come together-

    19. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    20. DD

      ... uh, is, uh, where most complexity is, right?

    21. SG

      Mm-hmm. So New York in the winter is really bad. And then-

    22. DD

      Yeah.

    23. SG

      ... you know.

    24. DD

      That's right.

    25. SG

      Yeah.

    26. DD

      That's right. Uh, but then this is why we picked San Francisco is that, you know, it's good for learning, uh, advancing the driver. It is a very interesting, you know, commercial market. Uh, we also in the same time went, uh, after downtown Phoenix. It has, you know, a different mix, more, more of the higher speed roads. And, uh, that gives us, you know, kind of, uh, the way we think about it at terms of the development and evaluation of the driver is kind of in the space of the operating domain, not necessarily areas or zip codes. And then you kind of take cities and you map that to the operating domain and, and you deploy, right?

    27. SG

      Hm.

    28. DD

      And then looking forward is the kind of in terms of how we think about, you know, future cities. It is, you know, the, a few lenses. It is market.

    29. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    30. DD

      Like, you know, is, is there a good, you know, uh, market from the commercial perspective? Uh, what is the technical, uh, complexity, you know, what is the, you know, regulatory environment? Uh, and so-

  11. 9:2611:01

    Technological Advancements

    1. DD

      that's, that's a boost, right? Really, it's all about, you know, AI as you mentioned.

    2. SG

      And what, what specifically in AI was the, the shift or change that was important? Was it moving to sort of end-to-end DL for everything? Was it the transformer backbone? Was... I'm just sort of curious, like was there a specific thing that-

    3. DD

      So for that last jump, the models, you know, transformers, as you mentioned-

    4. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    5. DD

      ... played a huge role, right?

    6. SG

      Hm.

    7. DD

      Before that, you know, we had the big breakthrough before that, you know, it was, uh, ConvNets, you mentioned AlexNet that was-

    8. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    9. DD

      ... around 2013.

    10. SG

      Yeah.

    11. DD

      So that gave us a big boost, but was still kind of a plateaued at kind of, you know, the wrong place.

    12. SG

      Hm.

    13. DD

      And then it was a few of those things coming together, right?

    14. SG

      Hm.

    15. DD

      It is, you know, transformers, uh, it is, you know, bigger models, more compute coupled with kind of the whole, you know, evaluation measures. We often talk about the architectures and what's really m- more important kind of the machine surrounding the architecture. You need to ask, you know, the architecture is an enabler-

    16. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    17. DD

      ... but really to make it work at the level that we care about, you need like everything around it, the data engine that will, you know, flywheel of, you know, training the system, evaluating it. And you kind of have to think about the problem of evaluating the driver in tandem of building it, right? And, uh, you know, you need to simulate it, you need data. So all of those coming together I think is what leads to-

    18. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    19. DD

      ... uh, you know, the, the breakthrough and discontinuity that you're seeing-

    20. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    21. DD

      ... with, uh, where we are today.

    22. SG

      Yeah. Can you explain how you guys think about evaluation internally and then also, um, you know, how that might differ from how regulators evaluate this from the safety case perspective?

    23. DD

      So the in- that's a big question, uh, but in, uh, I think, I'm glad you're asking about because it is a super important and an like insanely difficult problem, right? We often talk again about the building of the driver, but there's two problems. The building of the driver and the evaluation of it. And they go, you know, hand in hand. So, you know, internally it starts with,

  12. 11:0114:41

    Evaluating Safety

    1. DD

      you know, figuring out what metrics you care about, then, uh, bringing the data to support the evaluation of those metrics, you know, which we, you know, have hundreds.

    2. SG

      Hm.

    3. DD

      Uh, then you need all the infrastructure, uh, including things like the simulation. There are some things you can evaluate in open loop, you know, kind of, and some things you need closed loop simulation for. So you need to build, you know, a s- a realistic scalable simulator to support all of that, right?

    4. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    5. DD

      There are, you know, all of these metrics that guide our, you know, development of the system that, you know, help us, uh, improve and kind of train, uh, the, the Waymo AI, the Waymo driver, and then it funnels into what we call validation and evaluation. The aggregate of the evaluation and validation methodology is what we call the readiness and safety framework.

    6. SG

      You know, if you look at-

    7. EG

      ... uh, miles driven in an urban setting, or-

    8. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    9. EG

      ... you know, some comparison to human drivers in a given city that you operate in-

    10. DD

      Yeah.

    11. EG

      ... what is the relative safety level of what Waymo's doing versus a human driver at this point?

    12. DD

      We are pretty proud, uh, of our record. I think we have now, now that we've driven, you know, tens of millions, uh, of miles in fully autonomous, what we call rider only mode-

    13. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    14. DD

      ... uh, and driving, you know, today more than a million miles, uh, per week-

    15. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    16. DD

      ... I think we can, you know, with pretty good confidence in empirical data say that we are, you know, better than human's benchmarks.

    17. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    18. DD

      So we published some of that, you know, very recently, uh, on what we call the Safety Hub.

    19. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    20. DD

      Uh, the latest data point that we shared was based on 22-

    21. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    22. DD

      ... uh, million fully autonomous rider only miles.

    23. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    24. DD

      And, uh, we compared our performance-

    25. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    26. DD

      ... uh, versus human benchmarks, uh, by, you know, different severity levels of, you know, context of collisions, different severity levels. So we see, depending on the severity level, we see that, you know, for the lowest severity, lower severity outcomes were about, um, you know, uh, a factor of two better-

    27. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    28. DD

      ... than the human's benchmarks.

    29. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    30. DD

      And as you look at more severe outcomes-

  13. 14:4116:52

    Regulatory Stance and Trust

    1. EG

    2. DD

      ... at a, at a, at a good rate. Uh, but the main thing, uh, is-

    3. EG

      What is the total number of miles that are driven in the US per year?

    4. DD

      Uh-

    5. EG

      I'm sorry to put this on a fractional basis.

    6. DD

      All, all vehicles, I think it's, uh, you know, in different modalities-

    7. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    8. DD

      ... you know, large vehicles, small vehicles, I think it's, uh, just over three trillion miles.

    9. EG

      Okay.

    10. DD

      So quite a bit.

    11. EG

      Yeah.

    12. DD

      We ha- we ha- we ha- we have-

    13. EG

      (laughs) We have that on our way.

    14. DD

      (laughs) But the way, again, you know, the way we think about it is that it's important for this to be kind of an iterative process where we earn trust.

    15. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    16. DD

      It is not a thing where, you know, you-

    17. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    18. DD

      ... you- you know, build it and then you, uh-

    19. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    20. DD

      ... you know, just turn on the switch and-

    21. EG

      Sure.

    22. DD

      ... that's great, right? It needs to be something new, different. There needs to be a dialogue. It needs to be like we, you know, talked about establishing, uh, the safety-

    23. EG

      Sure.

    24. DD

      ... record, right? And we needed to build up to that, right?

    25. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    26. DD

      We collected in tens of millions miles. Now, we feel pretty good about that. So then we, you know, that gives us confidence-

    27. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    28. DD

      ... that earns us, you know, trust.

    29. EG

      Yeah.

    30. DD

      Uh, so you have to be transparent about where we are, and then we, you know, uh-

  14. 16:5223:19

    Future of Autonomous Driving

    1. DD

      And that's what we have today, right?

    2. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DD

      So far, we, we have, you know, achieved good quality-

    4. EG

      Sure.

    5. DD

      ... of the driver. We have built all the machinery to evaluate it and know-

    6. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DD

      ... what it takes. So now for us, it's an optimization.

    8. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    9. DD

      Right? It's a, it's an optimization, simplification, and if we have that, you know, that, uh, the thing that works, and you have a good mechanism-

    10. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    11. DD

      ... to evaluate it, then, you know, it, it really is drastically different-

    12. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    13. DD

      ... in terms of, you know, how fast you can move.

    14. EG

      Yeah.

    15. DD

      And I guess I've been in, in this other mode for years-

    16. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    17. DD

      ... where we have not solved the kind of the, haven't cracked the nut, right?

    18. SG

      Yeah.

    19. DD

      And you're kind of hypothesizing what it would take and, like, you know, yeah, what is the yield of this technical breakthrough? And you're kind of climbing uphill, right? And this is, you know, old analogy of, you know, going to mountain. You see the peak.-

    20. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    21. DD

      ... Then you get there, and you thought it was the summit, but no.

    22. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    23. DD

      Now you see like the, you know, the, the landscape. And that's what it felt like for us, you know, for many years. That's kind of the trend that the in- industry usually follows.

    24. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    25. DD

      And I just find it that it's a qualitatively different place to be in when you've cracked the nut-

    26. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    27. DD

      ... and you have the evaluation, and now you can optimize and scale.

    28. SG

      As part of your optimization, um, do you think of, like, reducing or simplifying the sensor suite as an important priority?

    29. DD

      Every generation of the hardware, you know, it, uh, increase capability, but also simplify-... drastically, and then, uh, the cost comes down-

    30. EG

      Mm-hmm.

  15. 23:1926:06

    Business Strategy and Partnerships

    1. DD

      hailing business, right? We don't build our own vehicles, right? We partner, we partner with-

    2. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DD

      ... Tier One's, we partner with Williams, we partner, you know, with, uh-

    4. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    5. DD

      ... other companies who help us on our operational side, you know, we partner with companies-

    6. EG

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DD

      ... who help us on the network side, so forth and so on.

    8. EG

      How do you think car ownership will change over the next decade or two? So if, uh, you know, it's- it's very exciting to see this ramp in terms of, you know, driverless rides that are happening.

    9. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    10. EG

      And one could argue at some point some proportion of the population, just like people flip to Uber to, um, you know, ferry them around in major cities versus driving or taking taxis or other things, there could be a flip here to- to autonomous systems versus owning cars, right? You should just be able to order something on demand, have it show up at the right time and you just get in and it takes you wherever you need to go.

    11. SG

      Do you view that as a 10% use case, a 30%? I'm just sort of curious-

    12. DD

      Yeah.

    13. SG

      ... like, what proportion of miles do you think will convert over time?

    14. DD

      Uh, I think over time, we'll see more and more as, you know, as, uh, technology matures, as, you know, it gets deployed-

    15. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    16. DD

      ... in more of these, uh, different products and modalities.

    17. SG

      Yeah.

    18. DD

      I think you're starting to see, uh, some of that, uh, even today in ride hailing, right?

    19. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    20. DD

      And it's not uniform, right? But even in kind of the densest cities, if you look at, you know, the people who live in San Francisco or, you know-

    21. SG

      Sure.

    22. DD

      ... people who live in New York, even, uh, before, you know, autonomy, right, uh, there was a shift of, you know, fewer people wanted to... in those areas, wanted to, uh, own cars, especially the younger generations, right? It's, uh, uh, not- not what they're excited about, right? Mm-hmm. Uh, and I think with, you know, with autonomy in those areas, in kind of the densest cores, you will see, you know, more of that evolution and continued trend, right? And then- then, you know, over time, it will expand, and so on, and so on.

    23. SG

      Yeah. Right.

    24. DD

      But, you know, the thing that I'm most excited about is in all of those modalities, we'll be bringing the safety benefits-

    25. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    26. DD

      ... of this technology, uh, to the ecosystem.

    27. SG

      One of the reasons I ask is I remember, um, talking with people in the self-driving world, I don't know how long ago, eight years ago, nine years ago, whatever it was. And at the time, everybody thought this wave was coming. I think a lot of people were off in terms of the timeframe-

    28. DD

      Yeah.

    29. SG

      ... in terms of what actually happened, and there was sort of a flurry of startups all getting up and running at that time. And a lot of the conversations were around how urban environments would change over time.

    30. DD

      Mm-hmm.

  16. 26:0626:40

    Changing Urban Mobility Trends

    1. DD

      is the primary one that we're very focused on. You know, we've talked about as kind of the North Star, as the mission, as the vision for, you know, many years, uh-

    2. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DD

      ... but, you know, it was always kind of with this caveat, once we get to scale. So I think today, we're starting to actually earn the right to talk about, you know, starting to realize that mission, right?

    4. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    5. DD

      You know, uh, tens of millions of miles behind umbrella, but, you know, more than a million per week.

    6. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DD

      We... And the benchmarks, the safety benchmarks that are, you know, statistically significant to seem, you know, empirically unambiguous-

    8. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    9. DD

      ... can talk about actually, you know, real, tangible safety benefits and,

  17. 26:4028:43

    Challenges and Misconceptions in Self-Driving Timelines

    1. DD

      like, inducing- reducing, you know, harm and injuries that are happening on the road today. So that's our primary focus, and as, you know, I think that's the primary, uh, benefit that we'll see. And then beyond that, I think there's going to be auxiliary ones like the ones we mentioned now.

    2. SG

      What do you think is the role of, uh, traditional OEMs in- in this world, um, uh, when, you know, I'd- I'd say functionally, like, a car takes you from point to point, ride hailing takes you from point to point with like, you know, different tiers of comfort level. But, uh, you know, very large industry has been built around people buying passenger vehicles for, like, you know, industrial design or brand or all these other things, um, that, uh- uh, you know, you really need a Ford Raptor to run around the Bay Area, right? Um, well, how do you- how do you think that evolves-

    3. DD

      Uh...

    4. SG

      ... when- when, you know, perhaps one of the more primary, um, drivers of value is now AI and the ability to do this autonomously?

    5. DD

      Right. But I guess, you know, we think of what we're doing as building the driver.

    6. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DD

      And...

    8. SG

      And the driver could still drive different cars.

    9. DD

      And the driver... Exactly.

    10. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    11. DD

      You put the driver, but you still need the car.

    12. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    13. DD

      And different form factors, you know, whether it's, uh, a car that's good for ride hailing in certain, you know, urban environments, whether it's, you know, a- a different vehicle that you need for good transport or truck or, you know, something that you want to take on longer trips with, you know, family.

    14. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    15. DD

      You know, we will need different cars. We'll need different form factors. And, uh, I think it's very, very complementary-

    16. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    17. DD

      ... what we're doing and what, uh, you know, the, uh, the car industry, uh, is building.

    18. SG

      Perhaps to Elad's point about how cities will change, the answer has clearly been given the efforts to change both drivers and cars and the environment to just change the driver, right? Um, which is what- what you guys have done. Do you think there are arguments still to change the infrastructure, right? Like, you can make, for example, in the public transport space, right, there's other form factors that require the participation of the public sector in order to deploy.

    19. DD

      Uh, absolutely. Sustainability is- is, you know, very important for us. Safety is the primary thing, but, uh, I think all of those modalities can coexist. Uh, in fact, uh, just, uh, in the last couple of days, we, uh, announced,

  18. 28:4330:54

    The Role of Traditional OEMs in an Autonomous Future

    1. DD

      um, uh, something that we're doing where we are incentivizing people to take Waymos in, uh, the cities where we operate to public transit hubs.

    2. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    3. DD

      And then, you know, everybody benefits.

    4. SG

      Sure. How do you think about the form factor of the car itself? I know that there was companies like Zoox that Amazon bought where-

    5. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    6. SG

      ... they kind of hollowed out the inside of the car because you no longer needed the steering column and everything else.

    7. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    8. SG

      And they put seats facing each other, almost like a London cab.

    9. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    10. SG

      Uh, do you have any thoughts on what that experience will look like in the future as more and more things move to autonomous self-driving ride hailing systems?

    11. DD

      Yeah. So designing a car, uh, around the passengers makes total sense.

    12. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    13. DD

      Right? Like, we, you know, uh, in the past, we've designed cars around, you know, primarily the- the driver.

    14. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    15. DD

      Right? Uh, if, you know, it's the Waymo driver, it's all about the- the rider experience.

    16. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    17. DD

      Right? So we have, uh, done, you know, quite a bit of work on the sixth generation of the, you know, the Waymo driver and the car. And the car is designed, uh, around with- with the passenger in mind, right?

    18. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    19. DD

      So it is more spacious. Uh, it is all about the user experience. You know, you have, you know, flat floors. You have, you know, lower, uh, floor for entry. You have doors that slide to the side. So it's all about, you know, getting in, so absolutely.

    20. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    21. DD

      You know, there's different aspects of it, like, you know, we don't have cars facing each other.

    22. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    23. DD

      I think there's... You know, it's an open question. Like, some people get, uh, you know-

    24. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    25. DD

      ... nauseous when you do that.

    26. SG

      (laughs)

    27. DD

      Like, you kind of want to... You know, there's benefits on, uh, facing forward. But, you know, all of that, I think, will be for us as an industry to figure out as, you know, as we move forward. But I think the- the key- the key point, it becomes, you know, much more, like, the design is around the rider-

    28. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    29. DD

      ... not around the driver.

    30. SG

      It seems like it could do very interesting SKUs too where, you know, I've always wanted a car with like a Peloton in the back or something.

  19. 30:5433:42

    Designing Cars for Autonomous Ride-Hailing

    1. DD

      calling into meetings from Waymos. Oh, yeah. So it is... (laughs) But it, it is, you know, actually, you know, like, uh, we, we joke about it, but it, uh, it gets to the point of privacy. Uh, it just becomes, you know, in this, if you don't have another human in the car, right? You can, you know, you can do a work meeting. You can do a, you know, call. You can, like, listen to your favorite music, uh, on full volume and not worry about, you know, that, that interaction of, like, having another human that you're sharing the spaces. So we are seeing, that was one of the, you know, hypotheses of the benefits, uh, of, of our product. And we are, you know, seeing very positive feedback from our Mm-hmm. ... RAs today, uh, uh, you know, along, along that specific dimension as well.

    2. SG

      You know, as just somebody excited to see this technology expand coverage range, is the blocking factor to, let's say, you know, a billion miles a week, is it, like, putting more cars on the road from a capital perspective? Is it just operationally this can only happen so fast? Is it your view of, um, like, what you wanna see from a safety and trust perspective, like consumer trust perspective? What's the bottleneck?

    3. DD

      Primarily, it's the latter.

    4. SG

      Okay.

    5. DD

      So we, we always, you know, our playbook has been to, uh, you know, go about it responsibly and gradually and-

    6. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    7. DD

      ... earn trust every step of the way and have this transparent dialogue. Again, this is a very new thing, new technology, new product, you know, very different from what people are used to. I think it has to be this

    8. EG

      process. And again, you know, trust is this thing that's hard to, you know, earn-

    9. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    10. DD

      ... but very easy to lose. So that's the main thing, right?

    11. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    12. DD

      Uh, and you s- we see that. We see that, like, in places where, you know, we operate, uh, and we've engaged with the communities, and there's riders who have, you know, used Waymos. It is, uh, there's a lot of trust. There is, you know, people, you know, use the word magic a, a lot about the experience. Uh, and then you go to a different place where people have not experienced it, and there's more anxiety- Mm-hmm. ... and less trust. Mm-hmm. So you can't, uh, just get there in one step. You have to do it- Mm-hmm. ... kind of responsibly and iteratively. So that, that's, that's the main thing that

    13. EG

      Yeah, it sends us back when, uh, they had elevator operators, getting rid of the operator was a big deal, right? 'Cause you used to have somebody-

    14. DD

      Yeah.

    15. EG

      ... in the elevator who would close the door for you and push the button and control that experience. That's interesting to see that evolution of different types of technology over time or people's interpretation of it. Um, how do you think about generalized abilities? You mentioned you're building a general-purpose driver that could potentially port into other types of vehicles. Do you think there's other extensions into other forms of robotics with what you're building? Or do you think those are all more specialized models? Or how do you think about where this could go from that perspective?

    16. DD

      On the driving part, uh, we have kind of designed it to be generalizable, and we're v- very happy, you know, with what we're seeing, especially with the fifth-generation driver, and, like, the AI generalizes really well, you know, based on, again, we've been using, you know, data from a very broad ODD to build it, even, you know, if we're deploying- Mm-hmm. ... you know, responsibly and gradually once we, you know, believe that we've achieved the level of performance that we require for a certain ODD, which maps to, you know, certain

  20. 33:4235:18

    Scaling Responsibly

    1. DD

      areas and ZIP codes. And to get you the other part of the question of, you know, going beyond autonomous vehicles, some of the stuff, like the nature o- of the problem and the complexity, I think the, some of the research that we do, uh, is pretty foundational- Mm-hmm. ... uh, when we talk about, you know, perception, right? You know, you can be in a car. You can be in a different, uh, modality in a, like, operating in the physical world. Uh, a lot of the research that we've published and a lot of work we've done, I think can, you know, benefit those communities as well when we talk about, you know, AI, uh, being deployed in a kind of real-time system, in a safety-critical system. A lot of the work that we have done, I think, you know, can translate, uh, to others and, you know, so forth. When we talk about the evaluation of the system, kind of what, you know, many robotics applications, you know, beyond autonomous vehicles need a good realistic scalable simulator, you know, that, that, that, you know, fundamental work translates, so on, you know, so forth and so on. Mm-hmm. We are very focused on the- Mm-hmm. ... you know, trillions of miles where we can have the positive benefits. So for us, uh, like, I focus, I, I think focus is very, very important. So we are being very laser, you know, laser focused on, uh, driving.

    2. SG

      Can I, um, ask, go back and ask, like, perhaps a, um, a more technical question here? Like, a while back, you said, um, you wanted to, you know, focus on the full autonomy problem. There were, uh, there are many other teams who actually, you know, have some lineage in the, like, you know, Waymo, Chauffeur, Google, um, programs that chose, uh, a use case that looked like it was going to be easier, trucking, like long-haul trucking, uh, deliveries. It's not clear that's much easier. Do you think there's a lesson to be learned here? Or, or at least,

  21. 35:1837:10

    Generalizability and Future Applications of AI

    1. SG

      you, you know, there are more miles being driven autonomously on the road in passenger vehicles by Waymo than in these other applications today.

    2. DD

      Yeah, uh-

    3. SG

      What, what lesson is there to be learned?

    4. DD

      Yeah, no, no. Uh, I think that's, you know, great question. You know, kind of the big differentiation that I would draw, and this is, like, orders of magnitude, and the difference between full autonomy-

    5. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    6. DD

      ... verse- at scale-

    7. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    8. DD

      ... versus, uh, you know, a driver assist system.

    9. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    10. DD

      Uh, and th- that, that's the big, like, that's the chasm. To your question, uh, of, you know, different vehicle platforms, different operating domain. You can have, you know, uh, slower speed, uh, applications where, you know, you do local deliveries, or you can have, you know, a trucking application, uh, on, you know, uh, freeways. Um, and they're a little bit different, but if we're talking about full autonomy, maybe there's second-order differences, but the first-order complexity is still there. Mm-hmm. Right? You can, uh, like, the, if you think about, you know, the core, the heart of the problem of, you know, building a generalizable and safe driver and, you know, being able to evaluate it, and the incredibly high bar of safety, the, you know, complexity of the noisy, messy physical environment and the long tail of, you know, people, you know, doing all kinds of, you know, weird thing, uh, and, uh, the necessity of making real-time decisions where milliseconds, you know, matter, and, like, how hard that AI problem is, uh, it's, you know, the, the, the distribution, the contours change a little bit if you're, you know, talking about, you know, freeways or lower speed. But the fundamentals are, like, you, you don't get, like, there's no silver bullets. You don't get to skip the, you know, core complexity. Mm-hmm. Now, for example, freeways, on a nominal case, they're a bit more structured.

    11. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    12. DD

      Right? Like, you know, but, uh, you still, uh, encounter with lower frequency, but at higher speeds where the severity is high, you encounter-... all kinds of things. You encounter, you know, construction zones. You encounter, you know, grilles and mattresses and all kinds of stuff falling off of the cars in front of you. You encounter cars, uh, you know, having getting into accidents and kind of spinning out in front of you. You encounter, uh, you know, people driving recklessly, you know, uh, whether they're in cars, whether they're on motorcycles. You encounter, you know, pedestrians

  22. 37:1042:58

    The Complexity of Achieving Full Autonomy

    1. DD

      jaywalking. You encounter, you know, uh, all kinds of things, right? And it happens much less frequently. So this is where, you know, it might be unintuitive. If it happens, you know, at once per million miles, none of us have seen, you know, examples like that in our world, so it kind of, it can lead to this, you know, early stage optimism about like, okay, there's, there's the simplification. But if you wanna do it full autonomously, and you wanna do it at scale, that complexity is still there. It's just, you know, (inaudible) .

    2. SG

      And why is it breaking from, like, um, you know, uh, let's say, advanced driver assistance that, uh, seems to work in more and more scenarios-

    3. DD

      Mm-hmm.

    4. SG

      ... versus, let's say, full autonomy?

    5. DD

      What's the, what's the delta?

    6. SG

      Yeah.

    7. DD

      It's the number of nines, right? And it, it's the nature of this, this problem, right? If you think about, you know, where we started in 2009.

    8. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    9. DD

      Uh, one of our first, uh, you know, uh, milestones, one of the goals that we set for ourselves was to drive, you know, uh, 10 routes. Each one was 100 miles long, all over the Bay Area. Um, you know, freeways, uh, Downtown San Francisco, around Lake Tahoe, you know, everything. And you had to do 100 miles with no intervention. So the car had to, you know, drive autonomously from beginning to end. That's the goal that we created for ourselves. It was, you know, about a dozen of us. Took us maybe 18 months. We achieved that.

    10. SG

      (laughs)

    11. DD

      2009.

    12. SG

      (laughs)

    13. DD

      No ImageNet, no Continets, no transformers, no big models, com- tiny computers, you know, all this... Right? Very easy to get started. It's always been the property. And with every wave of technology, it's been al- you know, very easy, uh, to get started. But that, the hard problem, and it's kind of like, that, that early part of the curve has been getting, like, you know, even steeper and steeper.

    14. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    15. DD

      But that's not where the complexity is. The complexity is in the long tail of the many, many, many nines. And you don't see that if you go, you know, uh, for a prototype, if you go for, you know, a driver assist system, uh, and this is where, you know, we've been spending all of our... That's the only hard part of the problem, right? And I guess, you know, nowadays, it's always been getting easier with every technical, uh, uh, kind of, uh, cycle. So nowadays, you can take with, like, all of the advances of... in AI, and especially in the, you know, generative AI world and the LLMs and VLMs, you can take kind of an almost off the shelf... Uh, you know, Transformers are amazing.

    16. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    17. DD

      VLMs are amazing. You can take, uh, kind of a VLM, uh, that, uh, can accept, uh, images or video, and is, you know, has a decoder where you can give it, you know, text prompts and it will output text, and you can fine-tune it, you know, with just a little bit of, you know, data to go from, let's say, camera data in a car, to instead of words, to trajectories. Or, you know, whatever decisions you wanna make. You just, you know, take the thing 'cause a black box-

    18. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    19. DD

      ... you know, you take whatever's been trained for

    20. EG

      You find too it a little bit and like not without, you know, 'cause I think if you ask any good grist in, in computer science to build, you know, NAV today, this is what they would do.

    21. SG

      Yeah.

    22. DD

      And out of the box-

    23. SG

      That's amazing, yeah.

    24. DD

      ... you get something that... It- it's amazing, right?

    25. SG

      Yeah.

    26. DD

      Like, the power of Transformers-

    27. SG

      Yeah.

    28. DD

      ... the power of VLMs is mind-blowing.

    29. SG

      Mm-hmm.

    30. DD

      Right? So with just a little bit of effort, you get something on road, and it works. You can, you know, drive it on tens, hundreds of miles and it just, we'll, it will blow your mind. But then is that enough? Is that enough to remove the driver and drive, you know, millions of miles and have a safety record, you know, that is demonstrably better than humans? No. Right? And I guess this is, you know, with every tech, you know, evolution of technology and any breakthrough in AI, we've seen kind of that reshaping.

  23. 42:5846:13

    The Importance of Data and Iteration in AI Development

    1. DD

      where we are, the momentum, and the future. Right? And I've been doing this, well, for close to two decades. Uh, the vision was always there, all right? But we had these big existential questions. Can we build the thing? Can we, you know, figure out what's good enough, and how do we evaluate it? Uh, can... will people wanna use it? Can we do it in a way that's, you know, commercially viable, you know, uh, and so forth and so on? Uh, and, you know, can we go the distance? And like now, where we are today, you know, operating at the scale we are and scaling ?1:50:03 ] we've, we've, we've demonstrated that we can build a thing. We are proud of our safety record, figured out how to evaluate it. We see that people wanna use it, and we get very positive feedback, and people are excited about it. We see that we can do it in a way that's cost-efficient and kind of likely, you know, viable. Uh, so I am super excited about, you know, what the future holds, and we're starting to talk about realizing the mission of actually, you know, making, uh, you know, realizing those safety benefits. So now it's all about, you know, optimization, scaling, and bringing this technology to more people and more places.

    2. EG

      Amazing. Yeah, very exciting. Thank you again for joining us today.

    3. DD

      Thank you for having me.

    4. SG

      And congratulations-

    5. EG

      Thanks for the, really good-

    6. SG

      ... on, uh, you know, the breakthrough progress over the last, you know, small amount of time.

    7. DD

      Thank you. Thank you. (instrumental music)

    8. SG

      Find us on Twitter @nopriorspod. Subscribe to our YouTube channel if you wanna see our faces. Follow the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. That way, you get a new episode every week. And sign up for emails or find transcripts for every episode at no-priors.com.

Episode duration: 44:30

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