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On with Kara SwisherExperts explain what’s really happening in the U.S. economy
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At a glance
WHAT IT’S REALLY ABOUT
Why the economy feels worse than the data suggests right now
- The panel argued that Americans’ negative economic mood reflects not only inflation and affordability problems but also political disgust, media dynamics, post-pandemic trauma, and a persistent sense that “the next shoe could drop.”
- They described a paradox where consumers remain able to spend thanks to a still-stable job market, yet feel strained by elevated prices and the constant effort required to manage household budgets.
- Housing was framed as the central affordability crisis with limited federal levers, local political barriers to building, and the possibility that lower interest rates could rekindle demand without meaningfully reducing prices.
- The discussion portrayed tariffs and other erratic policy moves as imposing broad costs—through direct price effects and through uncertainty that forces businesses to divert time and resources into constant contingency planning.
- On AI, the guests said job-displacement claims are difficult to verify in the data so far, while warning that the AI boom’s market concentration and opaque, non-bank financing could amplify broader economic fragility if sentiment or valuations reverse.
IDEAS WORTH REMEMBERING
5 ideasEconomic pessimism is being driven by both real price pain and broader institutional distrust.
Catherine Rampell said people have been soured for years because elevated prices and inflation have persisted, even if the intensity of public pessimism seems larger than the economic data would imply. Annie Lowrey added that today’s sentiment measures are also capturing media, politics, and social distrust—not just household balance sheets.
Consumers haven’t fully pulled back spending, but inflation has made everyday choices feel like work.
Catherine Rampell described a disconnect: people are angry about high prices but keep spending because many still have jobs. She and others framed the added “mental tax” of constantly price-comparing and re-optimizing household decisions as exhausting even when spending levels remain high.
Housing affordability is the sharpest pressure point, and there’s no quick fix.
Annie Lowrey argued housing is “far and away” the biggest affordability problem, including for people who are technically paying an “affordable” share but still making major life compromises (roommates, unwanted neighborhoods, delaying family decisions). She said even if interest rates fall, pent-up demand could keep prices from dropping.
Monetary policy is constrained by sticky inflation, housing dynamics, and political pressure on Fed independence.
Claudia Sahm said it’s too soon to judge new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, noting inflation won’t return to target quickly just because leadership changed and that the Fed faces tough choices about whether rate hikes are necessary. Catherine Rampell warned that political pressure from Donald Trump undermines the Fed’s independence and can weaken its credibility on inflation control.
Tariffs and policy volatility function like a hidden tax—especially on smaller businesses.
Catherine Rampell said tariff policy is being made erratically and imposes major logistical and planning burdens on businesses, not just tariff costs, because firms must react to sudden shifts. Annie Lowrey called continued tariffs “really bad,” emphasizing that small businesses lack the resources to adapt and can be pushed into bankruptcy, and she predicted Trump will keep doing it because he “cares about it sincerely.”
WORDS WORTH SAVING
5 quotesI would say it's a combination of high inflation, kind of stagnant economy, and frankly, um, a lot of political disgust that sort of ends up as referred pain towards the economy.
— Catherine Rampell
It takes a lot of effort to go do the bargain shopping, to go do, you know, try to figure out the way to deal with this. Do you go get a new job? Do you not? Like- and that is like, it's like a tax on people.
— Unattributed
It is absolutely a tax on businesses to have to deal with, you know, basically having to watch a mo- have, to have someone full-time monitoring Trump's Twitter feed or his Trump su- uh, Trump, uh, Truth Social feed rather, uh, because that's how policy is being made.
— Catherine Rampell
This is bad. This is really bad.
— Annie Lowrey
The second is that the AI build-out has been so expensive that these companies are going into debt.
— Annie Lowrey
SPEAKERS
Annie Lowrey
guestStaff writer at The Atlantic and author focused on economics and affordability issues.
Kara Swisher
hostHost of "On with Kara Swisher" and longtime technology/business journalist and interviewer.
Catherine Rampell
guestEconomics editor at The Bulwark and MSNBC Now contributor.
High quality AI-generated summary created from speaker-labeled transcript.
