Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and the Political Calculus of a Trump Victory | Pivot

1. KSKara Swisher0:00

   Elon is, uh, randomly awarding a million-dollar daily prize to registered swing voters who sign his PAC's petition supporting the First and Second Amendments. Federal law says it's a crime to pay people with the intention of inducing a reward and be... cast a vote or get registered, but election law experts are split over whether his actions cross the line. See, I think this is just risk assessment by Elon. Now, they're not gonna come after him, and if Trump wins, it won't matter. Uh, h- his allies argue 'cause he's not directly paying for registration, but for a petition signature, it's not illegal. It's very typical of him. This is a very typical risk he would take easily, including attacking Dominion Systems, which I think is probably not a great wis- risk to necessarily take. But go ahead. Finish what you were saying about him.

2. SGScott Galloway0:38

   It all comes down to incentives and the algebra of deterrence. The whole point of our criminal justice system is that criminals do the math, or when you're about to commit a crime, you do a math, and it's the following: the likelihood on caught times the potential penalty has to be greater than the potential upside.

3. KSKara Swisher0:58

   Mm-hmm.

4. SGScott Galloway0:59

   In certain key sectors and com- components of our economic system, the algebra of deterrence is all fucked up, and I'll give you a couple of very... three stark examples. If I'm, if I'm Meta and I know... I h- I sit on top of research that is showing that there is a direct correlation between usage of my platform and teen depression and self-cutting, and I continue to engage in this, or I violate my consent decree and I knowingly violate my consent decree, I know that the likelihood I get caught, the delay and the size of the fine are vastly smaller-

5. KSKara Swisher1:37

   Yeah, far too significant.

6. SGScott Galloway1:38

   ... than the upside of continuing to break the law.

7. KSKara Swisher1:41

   Yeah.

8. SGScott Galloway1:41

   In taxation, all really wealthy people have an incentive to be so fucking aggressive with their taxes because their taxes are so complicated. And the IRS has been, till Biden, so underfunded that the likelihood you'll get caught and the penalty are vastly overwhelmed by the amount of money you're going to save.

9. KSKara Swisher2:03

   They can come get you in way bigger-

10. SGScott Galloway2:04

    Yeah, by being incredibly aggressive on your taxes. And now let's go to Musk. Who gives a shit if it's illegal? They're not gonna, they're not gonna put him in jail. They're not gonna say to Trump, "You're no..." The, the... All of our election laws are the following: lie, cheat, break the law, get in office, and then it'll be embarrassing, and the Election Commission will fine you, and they'll shame your election, your campaign manager, and you're still the fucking senator. So the, the incentives, until they say... until there's some sort of com- uh, real risk that they can shut down, for example, all your media spending, if they say, "Okay, if, if this guy engages in this, he could go to jail," or the campaign has to stop all media spending, like, you could get an injunction if it's really blatant, what incentive is there for Musk not to do this?

11. KSKara Swisher3:00

    Yeah, I agree. I think everyone's like, uh, "Can you believe it?" I was... been asked to be on T-... I was like, "He, he can... he doesn't care. He's not gonna pa-" If, if she... if he wi-... if Trump wins, he's scot-free. This is a scot-free risk that he takes. And if he loses, she's gonna have a hard time going after him, and she probably won't, right? And so, uh, I think, uh, our, our laws, especially election laws, do not anticipate shameless fucks. Like, they just don't. And this is Trump, and this is, you know, as you're saying with the penis joke, it just... I don't thi-... I think, mmm, I think a lot of women, woof, yuck, eww, bleh. Um, a- and I agree with you paying attention to him, but I think it brings to question whether he's cognitively stable, and that's a negative. That is showing up on poll after poll after poll, is, is he Biden 2.0, dirty Biden, essentially. And those numbers are s- showing some real resonance. We were showing off some stats about that. Is he too old to... And then therefore, you're voting for, for, for J.D. Vance, who is, uh, paid for by Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, essentially. Um, so I do think it's a risk for Musk to take, and he will take it 'cause he... it will be advantaged. And if she wins, I think he's... he... the risk will be problematic for him, but not, uh, not fatal for him, you know. He'll just, he'll just behave. Although saying she hates Christians and stuff like that shows that he's really... he's also mentally... has some mental problems. I think the real quiet winner in this is Peter Thiel, and I think he will take down all of them because he quietly... he's very sharp. He sits behind the scenes. H- he and Elon did not get along before this, by the way, at all, in a way that was significant. So I suspect if Trump wins, there's gonna be one ugly... there's gonna be one ugly fight going on among those people.

12. SGScott Galloway4:47

    There's about a one-in-three chance if Donald Trump is reelected that, that he dies in office just based on his age and his body mass index. That means there's a guy who was a mediocre entrepreneur, VC at best, served four years in the Marines, which he should be honored for, got elected to Senate, what, two years ago?

13. KSKara Swisher5:09

    Mm-hmm.

14. SGScott Galloway5:10

    And this guy is bought and paid for by Peter Thiel. It's not his service in the Marines. It's not he's a smart guy. It's not his book. It's not any of that. There's two reasons that Senator Vance could be a heartbeat from presidency, and basically the president. There's two reasons.

15. KSKara Swisher5:27

    Oh, he could maybe be president.

16. SGScott Galloway5:27

    The first is Peter. The second is Thiel.

17. KSKara Swisher5:30

    Yep. That's the one I'm watching. I... You know, I, I think Elon's in more trouble in a Tr- presidency than a Kamala Harris p-... I think he's got issues, you know, Democratic issues of investigation and regulatory. There is gonna be an ugly fight at the top there if, uh, if Trump wins. I wouldn't want to be Trump. I think he's among some very difficult characters.

18. SGScott Galloway5:55

    I didn't see that. That's interesting.

19. KSKara Swisher5:57

    Yeah.

20. SGScott Galloway5:57

    I didn't, I didn't see that, but... 'cause the way I see it, and again, it just all... in my opinion-

21. KSKara Swisher6:01

    They're not gonna get along.

22. SGScott Galloway6:01

    ... I'd love to write a book called Incentives. I just... Some people-

23. KSKara Swisher6:04

    Oh.

24. SGScott Galloway6:04

    ... connect the dots.

25. KSKara Swisher6:05

    Yeah.

26. SGScott Galloway6:06

    But here are the incentives, and this is what's so dangerous about not immediately having a gag reflex around a move to autocracy.There's greater incentive to support Trump than Harris if you're famous or you're... Uh, because here's the thing, if you're, uh, Elon Musk and you support Trump very, very visibly and Harris is elected, they're not going to... They're not going to punish your company. They're not going to put you in jail. They believe in rule of law. Donald Trump is saying, "If I'm elected, I'm gonna prosecute Google to the full extent..." Or, "Jews, it's your fault if I don't get elected." So, all of the incentives are, "Okay, if I root for this clown and he doesn't win, I'm okay, because the people on the other side believes in rule of law." They're not gonna-

27. KSKara Swisher6:55

    Mm-hmm. That's what I said. That's-

28. SGScott Galloway6:55

    They're not going to go after personal persecution. But the autocrat might come after me. So-

29. KSKara Swisher7:00

    I think that is what's exactly gonna happen. That's exactly-

30. SGScott Galloway7:04

    So, say more. What do you mean, Kara?

Episode duration: 8:29