EVERY SPOKEN WORD
125 min read · 25,368 words- 0:00 – 0:58
Intro
- KSKara Swisher
Scorched earth is his kind of policy in lots of ways. He doesn't care. (instrumental music) Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher, and this episode is sponsored by IBM. Scott is off today sailing in some place, maybe Ibiza. Who knows? So in his place, I brought someone actually smart, a fantastic co-host, uh, Kristen Soltis Anderson, who is a pollster, a contributing opinion writer for The New York Times, and co-founder of Echelon Insights. I was on the Chris Wallace Show with her, um, and she is a Republican pollster. I am obviously, well, I don't know what I am. Anyway, welcome, Kristen.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Thank you so much for having me. I miss our weekly get-togethers, uh-
- KSKara Swisher
I know.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... with, with Chris Wallace refereeing.
- KSKara Swisher
Yes, I know. They're, they're quite good, but you're never really. Like, you're always so reasonable, and then you convince me of things I don't want to be convinced of. So, that's why (laughs) I'm having you here today. Um, but there's
- 0:58 – 7:21
Polling in the Age of Trump
- KSKara Swisher
a ton going on. What, what are you up to mostly right now? I mean, obviously, you've been inundated with information as a pollster, right, because there's so much constant information.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
There's a ton of stuff going on. So you've got, uh, the tariffs that next week we will see. 90 bill- 90 deals, 90 days, does that work out? So, lots of people interested in what's public opinion on tariffs and the economy. Everything that's going on in the Middle East. Do people feel safe? Do they feel unsafe? What's their reaction now that we've had a little bit of time to digest what happened? Um, and then, of course, what's going on with one big beautiful bill, and the many different ways you can try to gauge, do Americans even know what this bill is? And from what they've seen, do they even like it?
- KSKara Swisher
Right, which they don't, right? I mean, we'll get to that. We'll get to all those things. Um, do you... Right now, when you are doing polling, there's so much polling out there, and there's so much internet polling and everything else. Talk just a tiny bit about the business 'cause people, like, don't trust polls, but they're glued to them at the same time. So, give me an idea of how you figure this out when you're in, in this pool of info.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
You're right. It's very much one of those, like, the portions are terrible and so small kind of situations where people will say that, "I hate polls. I don't trust polls." But they seem to know exactly what's going on in the polling averages. Uh, look, distrust of polls or skepticism of polls is completely natural. I, I understand it. Um, oftentimes polls are used to do something they are not built to do. They are not actually great at predicting down to within a point or two how a fluid situation might turn out a week or two down the road. And so, uh, uh, I get why people are skeptical. The other challenge we're facing is technology makes it easier for me as a pollster to find you and ask you questions, and it makes it easier for you as a respondent to evade me, ignore me, block me, and so on. And then you add to that the way that AI is gonna change our industry. Um, it's gonna make it so that you have, uh, more hurdles to jump through as a pollster to try to make sure, are the people that I'm contacting and surveying really legitimate, or are they bots? Are they bots that look an awful lot like people digitally? Um, these are challenges that we as an industry are facing, um, and really right now the big thing that I am watching is, uh... There was a great Atlantic article I think a week or two ago that was about how teenagers are asking for landlines again.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Um, and, gosh, the return of the landline would be like the greatest thing ever for pollsters. (laughs)
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs) 'Cause people answer the phone. 'Cause people do. I never answer my phone. But I mean, I-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
No one answers the phone anymore.
- KSKara Swisher
Right, n-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
No one answers the phone.
- KSKara Swisher
Not at all. But wh- when you have so many of them out there too when they're doing them online, Elon Musk just did one. We'll talk about that in a minute, like about whether you should start an America Party, did one around a lot of things this week. He does it all the time, but he's not the only one. Everybody seems to have a hot take or, "I've polled these people." How do you stand out as an actual pollster with actual standards?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So, there are a couple things you can do to stand out. One of them is you're not just looking for the cheapest, fastest data you can find. Um, the reason why these panels exist of people that you can survey is not actually mostly for political purposes. It's because every brand under the sun has a marketing department that's trying to gauge, "How's our new ad campaign going? What do people think about our new consumer product?" And so on and so forth. So, most of these polling panels that a pollster in the political space is using don't first and foremost exist for political purposes.
- KSKara Swisher
Right, it's like having like this Clorox or whatever.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So, if you want to stand out as a political pollster-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, like what...
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah, you have to be good at knowing how to take this, these panels that are made mostly to gauge what do people think about bleach or sneakers or anything, and make it into something that looks really like what an electorate will look like. What we do at my firm, we use the voter file. It's the publicly available list of everybody who's a registered voter. It's pretty frequently updated in most states, and that can at least give you some ground truth of who is and isn't registered to vote, how often do each of those people vote or not vote, and that can help you have some sense that the people you're talking to are real people, they're registered voters, and you have a good idea of how often they are a voter.
- KSKara Swisher
And, and last question, you do this thing for the New York Times where you have the same people that you talk to. Um, is that, is that helpful, uh, 'cause you're trying to gauge their opinion over time, correct?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So, for the New York Times, what's really fun is that's qualitative. We are bringing in, you know, eight to 12 people depending on the, the group to just talk to them for 90 minutes about what they think about a key issue. And there you know you're getting real people. Uh, you know you're not getting bots. You're looking at each other face to face. You can see how they react to each other, and what's neat there is we have, as you mentioned, had times where we bring the same people back, you know, a year later. We did one like that around, um, January 6th. We had some Republicans come one year after January 6th and tell us, "Okay, a year later, how are you feeling about this horrible thing that happened in our country?" Um, and then we had those same people back a year after that to see, okay, how has, had the horror of the day converted into belief in a conspiracy theory or just a belief it's not that big a deal and so on and so forth.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, that's interesting. Now, one, one more question. Do- is there beefs between pollsters? There's beefs between journalists, that's for sure.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
(laughs) For the most part, pollsters are all friends, and that includes pollsters across the political aisle, so Republican and Democratic pollsters, we generally all view each other as part of the reality-based community who are trying to live in a world that is driven by data. And so, you find a lot of these fun partnerships between Republican and Democratic pollsters that do not exist anywhere else in the political consulting space. You don't find Republican and Democratic, like, ad makers working together that often, but you will find that in, in polling. The beef is less, you know, your right versus left, and it's more quality versus people who are peddling garbage, um, and they... The folks that are peddling garbage make it harder for the good pollsters to do their job, because they quote lower prices, they set different market expectations, and then they're the ones that are out there sort of pushing narratives that you either-
- KSKara Swisher
Performing the hand waivers.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... have to debunk or... Right.
- KSKara Swisher
Right, right, and it doesn't really matter if they're right or not, right? They don't... They just g- move on to the next thing. Um, all right. So, we've got a lot to get to today, and you're bringing us some stats too. Um, we're also going to talk about The Paramount's settling with Trump, and Trump's latest target, New York City mayoral candidate, uh, Zohran Mamdani, uh, who did spectacularly
- 7:21 – 20:30
Elon/Trump Feud Returns
- KSKara Swisher
well now that the results are in. But first... So, President Trump is hitting back at Elon Musk after days of Elon railing against Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. He's continuing to do so, which just passed the Senate. Trump took aim at the government subsidies that Elon's companies receive and said the country would save a fortune without them. He also threatened to sick Doge on Elon and said it would, quote, "take a look at deporting," uh, "Elon" when asked about that. Uh, he also said Doge would eat Elon for some reason. I'm not sure why. After those comments, Elon said it was so tempting to escalate, but he would re- refrain for now, and (laughs) I, I had predicted that he was gonna slap back over this bill because he, he really... I, I know him pretty well in previously, and this would bother him. He's been ramping up the rhetoric, posting on X that Republicans who vote for the bill will, quote, "lose their primary next year if it's the last thing I do on this earth." Okay, and after declaring that we live in a one-party country, the Porky Pig Party, Elon renews his calls to form a third party, the America Party, if the bill passes. So, we're gonna talk about the bill in a moment. Let's start with the return of the feud. Now, I am not surprised that Elon erupted like this. I said he would when he did his first eruption and then apologized, but Tesla shares took a tumble on Tuesday, falling 5%. That's ahead of Q2 earnings where analysts expect to also see declines in actual car sales. Now, he's expressing regret over his chainsaw stunt, saying it, it lacked empathy, you think? Um, so l- he's threatening this third party. Let's stop, start with this. You have some brand new polling on third parties in the United States, which has been tried and tried again, although it has happened in the United States several times.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah, polling, uh, on this really shows that a lot of Americans don't think that the two existing political parties are meeting their needs, but there's really not a lot of consensus about what a third party would look like. And the bad news for Elon Musk is that this kind of libertarian-type viewpoint is most likely not where you would find a real viable third party spring up.
- KSKara Swisher
Hmm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Um, so I've been doing, uh, research at my firm for the last number of years where what we do is we ask people, "Do you think of yourself as liberal or conservative?" But then, we also ask them a bunch of issue questions to get their sense of, you know, "Are you picking the conservative position on 10 out of 10 economic issues or 10 out of 10 social issues?" And then, we kind of plot everybody out on a chart, and we see where do people fall, and only 11% of voters are strong conservatives, right? They're picking the right-wing position on almost everything, and only 13% of Americans pick the strong liberal position on everything. There's a lot of people that choose a little from column A, a little from column B, but the problem for the libertarians is only about 5% of people tend to choose a bunch of liberal social positions and a bunch of conservative fiscal positions.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, wow, so not many people.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
There are significantly more people who are the opposite, who take a more sort of socially, culturally conservative viewpoint, but then also believe that, yeah, we should have robust government safety net and those sorts of things. So, the problem that Musk is gonna run into is, yes, Americans don't love the two-party system. Yes, there's a hunger for a third party, but no, it doesn't necessarily look exactly like what I think Musk's politics look like.
- KSKara Swisher
Right, so what would that look like? Uh, l- like, that they're socially conservative, r- th- that's interesting. Uh, usually it was the socially liberal and fiscally conservative. That used to be kind of a thing from a lot of people in the Senate.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Right, and, uh, you know, I do a lot of presentations to business leaders, and I'll ask, you know, "How many of you in this room would describe yourselves as fiscally conservative but socially moderate to progressive?" And tons of hands go up, and like, the bad news for those folks is in the data, it's actually a very small portion of the electorate. Um, we tried asking it a different way where we, uh, gave people five different hypothetical parties to choose from. One is kind of a far right, nationalist, populist-type party. One is a more center-right, maybe old school Republican Party. One is a center-left Labor Party. One is a Green Party, and then one, we jokingly call it the Acela Party, but, like-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... that's not really what it's called, but it's this kind of Mike Bloomberg, like, socially-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... moderate centrism.
- KSKara Swisher
Squeegee.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And that only gets 13% of voters. Um-
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, wow. Wh- which one gets the most?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... which is nothing, but it's-
- KSKara Swisher
Which one gets the most?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
The most is the Labor Party, uh, 31%-
- KSKara Swisher
Hm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... of Americans, and part of that is because demo-
- KSKara Swisher
So, Bernie Sanders. The Bernie Sanders gang.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, so I, I don't know if I would say that's Bernie Sanders. I would think of it more almost as a like, maybe a John Fetterman, uh, uh, setting aside like-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I know he definitely has some views that are at odds with the Democratic, uh, majority on a couple cultural issues these days, but this idea of like middle class economics, labor unions, tax the rich a little bit, um, support programs for those less well off, but it's not like, uh, break up big corporations. Like, that's what we said for the Green Party, and that only got 6% in our polling.The more interesting thing, I think, to me, too, is that the right is really split. So while most Democrats coalesce into that kind of labor party-type model, Republicans are very divided between this more old school, you know, th- three-legged school- stool of conservatism, right? Strong military, strong families, uh, limited government, versus a, like, "We're cracking down on illegal immigration, we're stopping political correctness, America first." Like, that really does divide the right in our polling.
- KSKara Swisher
No foreign intervention, that kinda thing. So, so they, are they headed for a crackup in that way? It seems like it once Trump is removed from the situation, there's a real crackup about to happen.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
It feels like Donald Trump is holding a lot of pieces together, that in the absence of a strong, dominating personality who has just captured this party entirely, those cracks would begin to show. A lot of this Musk feud reminds me of the Tea Party days. I think I described it on air once as, like, the reheated leftovers of the Republican Party's inter-family drama from, like, 2011. That these fights feel familiar, but they feel old. They feel like they come from an era before Donald Trump came in and said, "It's my way or the highway."
- KSKara Swisher
Right. So, so, but is there a chance for him to have a party in here? What would it be? If you were ma- if he said to you, uh, "Kristin, I want you to create a party for me," what would you advise him? And he, he's gonna give you a pile of money and you'll do it, right? Uh, and I don't know if you would, but, uh, you should (laughs) 'cause you'd be a good influence on him. Um, i- what would you advise him? "Elon, this is the party you need to start."
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So I think he's got some good instincts in the sense of, uh, anti- being anti-establishment, right? I think the problem that too many attempts to start a third party have had is that they have been too captive by existing establishment, or it's, like, e- elites driving it, and so your sort of average American is like, "Well, I- I want a third party," but maybe not that. Um, he is, of course, an elite himself, but I think he is more comfortable breaking out of that sort of elite bubble. And I- I, so I think there's something about the anti-establishment vibe you would need to pull this off. But I do think that this idea of just, like, slashing government and that being the main thing you're all about, that's tough to build a party around. Because, you know, Republicans l- they love to cut spending. Um, they love to talk about it at least, but the political reality of the popularity of cutting spending is very different. And so if you can talk a big game about it, but then when push comes to shove, what is it that you wanna cut, you know, Doge has already cut most of the things now that were politically, uh, low-hanging fruit. Um, and we c- I think we're gonna see some thermostatic backlash to some of this too. Like, foreign aid is something I've seen in poll after poll was pretty popular to cut. Well, now that we've cut it, we're gonna see the consequences of that. Wouldn't surprise me if all of a sudden funding for foreign aid becomes more popular than it was five years ago precisely-
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... because we've now cut it.
- 20:30 – 33:57
The Fate of the “Big Beautiful Bill”
- KSKara Swisher
for himself. So let's- let's move on to where things stand with the Big Beautiful Bill, which in most Americans, according to several polls, I think some of your own, aren't exactly thrilled about. The bill narrowly passed through the Senate on Tuesday in a 51 to 50 vote, with three Republicans siding with Democrats and Vice President JD- D. Vance having to break it with a tie, break it, the tie itself. As of the recording, the bill is now back in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson has vowed to get the bill over the line. He's been very successful previously in doing this. Um, by the time you're listening to this, this may or may not have happened. Now, I wanna note a few things about this Senate bill. The latest estimate from the Congressional Budget Office has it adding more than $3 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years. The bill cuts about $1 trillion from Medicaid and other healthcare programs. It also makes cuts to SNAP. Nearly 12 million people will lose healthcare coverage i- if it becomes law. Um, what jumped out at you over the last few days when we saw this debating and negotiating in the Senate? Obviously, Sen- Senator Lisa Murkowski, who I'm calling The Quisling, said it was an agonizing to vote for the bill, and yet she did. She kept trashing it as she was voting for it, which is, of course, typical of her. Talk a little bit about what jumped out at you and then th- this data you have.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah. So this bill is, uh ... It- it was always going to be a massive challenge, because it is the, like, Cheesecake Factory menu of conservative priorities that some people in the coalition love and some people in the coalition hate, but you're kind of asking them to eat everything on The Cheesecake Factory menu all at once. Um-
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs) Ew. Ew. (laughs)
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And so you- the- the thing you may love, like I might love my 1,600-calorie Santa Fe salad, uh, but in order to get that, I have to agree to try a little bit of everything on the menu, and that's- that's the legislative situation they've all found themselves in. There's three things that are making this bill move, even though the polling isn't great. The first is the power of Donald Trump. He says, "This is my agenda. This is my bill. You're with me or you're against me." And he's a very powerful force in the party. Nobody wants to cross him. He could, m- more so than Elon Musk, cause people problems in a primary. The second thing that's driving them is Republicans love cutting taxes. They like the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act from 2017. Their regret is only that they didn't do it earlier in that year, in 2017, that instead of doing it at the end of the year, they should have done it earlier, so it could have, in their thinking, helped them in the 2018 midterms. So they're like, "We love this. We want to get it done. Even if it is loaded up with all this other stuff that we might have questions about, the core thing is the tax cuts, and we've got to get it done." And that's the carrot that's dragging everybody to this bill, even if they have other reservations. But the final thing is that I think Republicans, not un- incorrectly, believe that they will be able to turn these numbers around. So because this bill contains so many multitudes, in a poll, how do you even begin to ask about it? It is a Medicaid reform bill. It is a spending cuts bill. It is a tax cuts bill. It, for one t- point in time, was an AI regulation or non-regulation-
- KSKara Swisher
Right, which came out.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... bill.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
It- it- it's an EV tax credits bi- I mean, it is a child tax credit increase. It is ... The number of different ways you can describe this bill is almost infinite, and so the question is gonna be Republicans have started to coalesce around, "We're gonna describe this as it's a tax cut."... and or preventing a tax hike, and it is focusing on making sure we're putting America first, and they describe that as, "We're funding stuff for border security. We are putting in these wo- work requirements on Medicaid," which in and of themself test well. Democrats believe-
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, lazy me- lazy Medicaid people, right? That, that message.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
That's the, that's the Republican message.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
The Democratic message, on the other hand, is, "You're calling these people lazy Medicaid people. In reality, it's gonna be hardworking people who can't figure out how to file the paperwork, and they're gonna get dropped from their healthcare because they can't navigate your new requirements." Um, and that's gonna be, as you mentioned, it's gonna be 12 million people, many of whom you would say are deserving or are your neighbor or did vote for Donald Trump. And so, the reality is, like, R- Republicans do have a message that can work, but if the reality of it is that the economy's not actually doing better by next November, or that these policies in states that begin to try to implement work requirements earlier, if that creates snags and causes people who voted for Trump to lose healthcare, there could be really big backlash to that to create... that would create problems in a midterm.
- KSKara Swisher
Why right now is it polling so badly?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I think it's polling badly because if you don't-
- KSKara Swisher
Like, really badly, right?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... like Donald Trump, you know you don't like it.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And so, you're-
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... already starting off with almost half of America right there that's like, "Oh, it's Trump's bill? I'm out."
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And then of those voters who do like Donald Trump, there's not unanimity that it is a good thing, because for some-
- KSKara Swisher
Hm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... of them, they're like, "Well, I like Trump, but this has some things that I'm not crazy about." So, it's easy for the opponents to all be unified against it. "We don't like Trump. This is Trump's aga- agenda. Trump bad, bill bad. Done." But for the supporters of it, you've got the criticisms from the middle, the Murkowskis, the Mike Lawlers of, in the House, but you've also got attacks from the right, from the Chip Roys-
- KSKara Swisher
Marjorie Taylor-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... the Thomas Massies. And so, it's like a two-front war-
- KSKara Swisher
Marjorie Taylor Greene was just-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... this bill is fighting.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yes.
- 33:57 – 42:18
Paramount Settles with Trump
- KSKara Swisher
is what you were dovetailing is, it's better to keep your head down. Paramount has agreed to pay $16 million to settle a lawsuit with President Trump that alleged a 60 Minutes interview with Kamala Harris was deceptively edited. The settlement does not include a statement of apology or regret, as, and in fact, Paramount had said this is just a ridiculous case, as did most lawyers think that. Asides from legal fees, the payment will go towards Trump's future presidential library. The settlement comes as, uh, Paramount seeks to complete a merger with Skydance Media, which requires approval from the Trump administration. Reminder that ABC News has agreed to pay Trump a $16 million to settle a defamation case late last year, which is a much stronger case. In this case it's, it's not. It's just not. So talk about this, the, the repercussions. I mean, obviously they wanna get this deal, uh, through. It has the feel of a shakedown and a bribery that has been brought up against Shari Redstone. Um, it feels very, uh, Orban, autocratic, very f- strange and, and, uh, you know, lawfare, which is what's something that conservatives complain about. And it's also heinous, uh, on many levels. Your thoughts?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So, I can't help but think about this in the context of a couple of other lawsuits that have proceeded further down the road against media organizations, n- not necessarily from Trump himself. But I think a lot about the Fox News defamation case, and how much they had to pay out, uh, regarding, um, you know, the Dominion, Smartmatic, all of that. And then, you know, CNN where, uh, I'm a contributor-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... where, where we met doing Chris Wallace Show. I mean, they, they have, I believe, had to settle a case around, um, some stories earlier this year about someone, uh, who was trying to evacuate refugees from Afghanistan. At any rate, a, a lot of these media organizations, I think, feel like they are nervous about what happens when even if you feel like you've got a really good case, and even if you feel like, "I'm just doing good journalism. It's not fair. I shouldn't be in this position," it just feels like a moment where the climate is not on your side. And so, do you just do the settlement, save yourself the embarrassment of discovery and going through a trial and all of that pain and suffering, um, even though it's gonna cost you a pretty penny, and even though you're gonna have to swallow your pride? Like, which is the least painful path forward? But I also think that things like this are part of why, if you look over a long enough trend line, uh, do you trust the news media? I mean, those numbers-
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... have been declining for a long time.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
But most recently, the decline is not actually coming from Republicans. It's coming from Democrats.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
It's coming from Democrats-
- KSKara Swisher
Interesting.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... whether they think that the media has become too soft on Trump, or they've normalized Trump, or that they are too sensationalist or what have you. Like, the decline in trust in the media from Republicans happened a l- while ago, and that has kind of bottomed out.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
The declines that we're continuing to see overall are actually being driven by Democrats who say, "I don't know that I trust that these organizations are doing the right thing either."
- KSKara Swisher
Right. So in this case, I get the idea, "Oh, let's just let it go away," right? That kind of thing. And I do, I understand. In the case of Fox, they had a good case, right? There was so many emails. There were like... It was like, (laughs) it was frightening how bad they behaved in that situation. They knew just, they had all the elements of proving it, and they'll probably lose their next several cases in that area. So, that was actually really egregious behavior on the point of p- uh, on the part of that news organization, and they deserved to lose, really, in many ways. In the case of ABC, probably, I suspect, there was some emails that weren't so great, or texts, or something like that, you know? There was, and there was an obvious mistake. It was e- when he had the information that, of how to say it, and we have had to correct s- you know, we have changed stuff when we edit stuff if it's said wrong. Um, so you have to really be careful. Whether he, they could've proved there was malice, that's a different situation. In this case, it's just not the case. And they have a, a brand, 60 Minutes. Two people have left the company. The staff is obviously d- I don't know what they'll do today or, or w- whatever day. But it's a real problem of sort of collapsing what is a trusted institution, which is 60 Minutes, over something that isn't, isn't a problem, right? Is that, is that dangerous in the longer term, or does it not matter at all?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Yeah. I'm, I never love the use of lawsuits to try to achieve an end, especially if it's potentially gonna have the effect of chilling free speech. I mean, this is one of the things that these days frustrates me a lot about the right is, I think, over the last decade, there have been a lot of very legitimate questions r- raised about the existence of free speech in this country and the protection of free speech in this country, especially from, you know, when conservatives say we're being silenced. Like, I'm sympathetic to those charges that you, you need free speech and that has to include even speech that you think is offensive or, um, is out of bounds. But then, once you get the reins of power deciding that you actually do wanna just, like, stop speech, uh, that you don't like or s- you know, chill speech, that does make me very concerned. Another case that I, I sort of think of as part and parcel of this, it's very (laughs) personal to my industry, is the lawsuits against Ann Selzer, uh, the poster in Iowa-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, which dropped, right?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... and the lawsuits against The Des Moines Register. Um-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... the fed- the, the case, I believe the federal case was dropped in, but I believe it was refiled as a state case. And it was done a day in advance of the anti-SLAPP laws coming into effect in Iowa that are supposed to protect against the use of, like, lawfare to go after people who engage in speech you don't like. Um, so that's a case that I'm watching very closely, because the idea that someone can come after you and sue you because they think that your poll was wrong, um, and that you, it was reported on, you know, f- in a way you didn't like in a paper, that's very, very, very concerning.
- KSKara Swisher
Wh- where does it go from here? Is this, is this embolden Trump to do? 'Cause they're doing it all over the place, like anything he doesn't like. He threatened CNN the other day, he threatened for, for reporting on an app, like, that there exists, the existence of an app. They didn't say, "Please buy this or use it." It's about ICE, this ICE app. Um, th- does this, wh- what happens here? Does, is there a point where people say, "No more," or, or they overreach? Or not at all if it works? I mean, if this works and these people, especially if you're a company that wants something, and you always want something from the government, right? Or is this just once it stops working, it's gonna be hell to pay, I suspect, for, for Republicans?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I, I don't know where this ends. Um, and this is where not being a lawyer, you know, I'm, I'm unsure of what the, uh, what the strategy is in terms of, like, continuously trying to push people in courts, and, like, how much pain do you incur if you do try to fight back? Um, I'm less familiar with that, but I know that if you look at sort of Trump's target list, he is picking targets that are not beloved by the sort of general public, whether it's the media, Ivy League institutions, you know, big powerful law firms. Like, he's picking targets that your sort of median American goes, "Yeah, I don't really like them that much anyways." Um, and I, that has been, I think s-... at least savvy political strategy on his part, setting aside that I— I had— I don't feel qualified to comment on it as a legal strategy.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. Right. And- and- the- is there any chance the media's image will bounce forward in any way? What would d- what would happen to do that?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, I- I do think that you're right, that at least in the short term, much the same way that we were talking about with Musk earlier, that, like, he- he lost his credibility with Democrats and now he's picking fights with Republicans. But he's unlikely to, at least in the short term, see, like, a resurgence of, uh, love and admiration among the Democrats that he has alienated over the last couple of years. I sort of feel like this may be the same way, at least in the short term, that, like, by doing this, it's not as though you're going to suddenly have a bunch of Republicans who are like, "Fantastic!"
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
"These news organizations have all made big donations to the Trump Library. We love them."
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. (laughs)
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Like, at least in the short term, it just means that kind of everybody's mad at you, even if for very different reasons.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, absolutely. You don't win at all. I don't know. I think fighting is probably better of it, but they want this deal. They want this deal to happen. Um, there have been threats later to go back at them as a bribe someday. I doubt they'll get to that, but, so they- they're making that calculation that Democrats won't s- wreak revenge once they get back in power.
- 42:18 – 45:50
Trump Says He Has a TikTok Buyer
- KSKara Swisher
Um, but we'll see. Maybe they will. They have long memories. And President Trump says he's- also has a buyer for TikTok, another thing that he's doing in the media. Let's listen to a clip of the announcement on Fox News, an interview with Maria Bartiromo.
- NANarrator
We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way. I think I'll need probably China approval, and I think President Xi will probably do it, you know? Who's buying? I'll tell you in about, uh, two weeks. (laughs) A b- big technology company there? Very, very wealthy people. It's a group of very wealthy people.
- KSKara Swisher
The potential buyers reported the same investor consortium before the first bid stalled amidst trade talks, Oracle Corp, Blackstone Inc, and Andreessen Horowitz. The president recently signed an executive order extending the deadline for a third time. The law requires ByteDance to divest from the platform, so we'll see. Polling in- a few months ago showed support for TikTok bans standing at 34%. Not great. Um, w- w- where are we on polling? Has it, have people forgotten, given all the other news happening?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Polling on the TikTok ban has been fascinating because a couple of years ago, when you did polling around something like TikTok, there were real concerns about it, right? Is this Chinese propaganda? Is this warping kids' minds? Is it taking too much of their attention? Um, and, you know, when this was initially proposed and passed by Congress, it- it was reasonably popular. Um, really, the only people who were particularly mad about it were the kids who used TikTok. Um, but TikTok very, very smartly was able to marshal their users and, uh, to make the case, "How can you take this from us?" And I think because Donald Trump perceives that he won his election in part by doing well among some of these disaffected Gen Z-ers who may be using a lot of TikTok, he's not inclined to tick off that constituency. And so he loves to be viewed as a deal-maker. Um, he- his position on China is fascinating because he likes to talk about being tough on China, but he also likes to talk about, you know, coming to deals with- with Xi. So this is sort of ready-made to be the kind of thing where even though being tough on China is almost never a losing position within the Republican coalition, on this one, the very particular constituency of who really loves TikTok is a group that Trump is trying to win over.
- KSKara Swisher
And so it's good if he comes to a deal, even if he hands it over to people or- or not. If he doesn't, what happens? If China says, "Fuck you. Like, no way we're doing this."
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, I'm- I'm curious about how legally this can all proceed because-
- KSKara Swisher
Exactly.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... my understanding is that Congress was pretty clear that this has to happen.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And so I- I expect if Trump does, you know, how much longer can he keep saying like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, Congress, you passed this law, but I'm kind of not gonna follow it because I don't really feel like it."
- KSKara Swisher
Congress is so good at protecting its interests, but-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Like, at a certain point, doesn't the- the court have to intervene?
- KSKara Swisher
No. You- you'd think Congress would do its job, but they seem to be abrogating a lot of that.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, Congress is saying that they already did their job.
- KSKara Swisher
Right.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
And so that's, like- this is now, you know, they've already passed a bill saying Trump has to do this.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. Yes. They hold him to account over so many things, Kristen. (laughs) Just like, come on.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
(laughs)
- KSKara Swisher
It's like down the list. Like, I don't know. He doesn't listen to them in otherwise, but it'll be interesting to see if he gets a real bump, if something really comes off, even if he's handing it over to his friends, whether it's Larry Ellison, um, or Marc Andreessen, correct? I mean, n- nobody cares about that, that these rich people are getting another break, essentially.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
He will just love that he can say, "I made another deal." And it will-
- KSKara Swisher
"I made another deal."
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... just add one more piece to the puzzle of his kind of brand image on that front.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. Right. So that works more- more than the particulars. All right, Kristen, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, I'm very excited to talk to you about this, Trump
- 45:50 – 56:45
Trump Threatens to Arrest Mamdani
- KSKara Swisher
targets New York City mayoral candidate Zoran Mamdani. Kristen, we're back. Official results are in for New York City's Democratic mayoral primary, and Zoran Mamdani took it away with a massive 12% lead. Mamdani still faces a general election, which will include incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and potentially Andrew Cuomo again. Meanwhile, President Trump was asked about Mamdani at a press briefing on Tuesday and made some pretty bold claims. Let's listen to a clip of Trump's response to being asked what he would do if Mamdani blocked ICE raids in the city.
- NANarrator
Well then, we'll have to arrest him. Look, we don't need a communist in this country, but if we have one, I'm gonna be watching over him very carefully on behalf of the nation.
- KSKara Swisher
Trump then took things a little further, saying this.
- NANarrator
A lot of people are saying, uh, he's here illegally. He's, uh, uh... You know, we're gonna look at everything.
- KSKara Swisher
Mamdani was naturalized as a US citizen 2018. He responded on social media saying, "Will not accept this intimidation." Any big takeaways from Mamdani's official win, Kristen? And also these threats, which are troubling, I would s- to say the least.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
In terms of the win, first...I cannot imagine why this sort of Democratic establishment thought that selling Andrew Cuomo with all of his baggage was going to work. Um, it is, in some ways, kind of appalling and an indictment of New York's (laughs) Democratic establishment that they couldn't come up with a better alternative. Um, but I also don't wanna take anything away from Mamdani here. Um, I think making the number one issue the number one issue, which is cost of living, stuff costs too much and it should cost less, is, it is, that's the right strategy. And he paired with, and this is something w- that I also think AOC is so good at, despite the fact that, like, I don't agree with her on a ton of policy, but I, I rate her very highly as a political communicator. She's very good at showing up where voters are and speaking to them the way voters wanna be spoken to. It's not condescending-
- KSKara Swisher
It's very substantive.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... it's not overly fancy or overly technical, but it's not dumb. It's not dumbed down, so to speak. It's just speaking normally, and, like, most politicians are just allergic (laughs) to doing that for reasons I cannot comprehend, and he's very good at it. The video of him talking about, like, "Make halal $8 again," like, is, it was a really great video. Like, stuff like that's so good.
- KSKara Swisher
You liked him a little bit, didn't you? You liked him. You liked him. You're like, "I like him. I don't know why."
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
(laughs) I, I think that populism plus T- uh, not even TV-savvy, but, like, media-savvy is a very potent combination, and I think he has it. Um, and s- but I would also say I think there's a lot of, like, over-reading into this about what it means ideologically. There was a quote from a Democratic strategist, like, the morning after the win that was something like, "Ugh, our base, they're always voting for these-"
- KSKara Swisher
Sure.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
"... insane ideas and these far left lunatics," and it was this, like, real contempt for the Democratic base coming from this, like, centrist Democratic strategist. But I don't actually think that the Democratic base on the whole is super ideologically to the left. Um, on economic issues, like, they are very open to a robust role for government, but I don't think that actually the majority of the Democratic electorate is, like, truly DSA-aligned. Um, and so what works in n- a Democratic primary in Manhattan is not necessarily transferrable anywhere. The other thing that I think is very valuable though to learn from Mamdani's win, if you looked at the age breakouts of people who voted in this primary, younger voters were, like, the biggest group of voters. That almost (laughs) never happens in, especially in a primary, which is always, like, a really low turnout sort of thing. It's exactly the kind of contest young voters typically sit out. He turned them out, so I take nothing away from him on those grounds, even though I, I disagree with him on a lot of policy. I think this feud between him and Trump is, uh, it's probably going to benefit both parties involved, as much as I think, like, the whole idea of trying to denaturalize someone because you don't like what they're saying I think is terrible, everything I said earlier about free speech, right? W- we should not be in the business of, of trying to punish people's speech and saying, "We don't like what you said." People do not want p- people generally just, like, deported because you are, you know, left-leaning or you said ... Even, even in the cases where you've said something that's really offensive. Like, if you are a naturalized US citizen, being deported, I cannot imagine is something that would be popular. At the same time, Donald Trump is going to love the elevation of Mamdani as, like, the face of Democratic Party. He will think that is a very advantageous dynamic for the White House. At the same time that it's probably good for Mamdani politically to be coming under fire from Trump, because to the extent that there were any, like, wavering establishment Democrats or centrist Democrats who were like, "Ugh, maybe we just vote for Eric Adams because we can't with this crazy guy," if all of a sudden he is, like, the poster child for, "I am taking the fight to Trump," that probably does pretty well to unify the Democratic base behind you as you move into a general election in November. So, it's not to say that there was, like, a Republican candidate who I think was gonna win and become (laughs) mayor of New York, but, um, to the extent that there are independent challenges, it's probably good for Mamdani to have, to be in the line of fire from Trump.
- KSKara Swisher
The ratings are good, as Trump would say. But w- we talk about where he, he did well. He did well with young people. He go- what kills me is that, like, they're like, "Young people don't vote," and then they vote. They're like, "We don't like how young people vote." (laughs) And, like, it was sort of like they're voting, and it's their, it's up to them to decide what they want. Um, do you see ... Y- you know, the, the, the Democratic reaction has been really interesting and sort of they're upset. They're largely upset around globalize the Intifada. He won't push back on that. That seems to be the focus. But they also were sort of shocked by this in a way that I n- I wasn't shocked or, or other people weren't. But what's interesting to me is that they, um, continue to dismiss these movements, which often can be very powerful, whether it's Mamdani or AOC or Bernie Sanders, very popular, including across party lines, right? Sanders was very popular with people who then, then became Trump supporters.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Well, this reminds me a lot of the sort of freak out that a lot of Republican, uh, strategists had when the Tea Party movement was getting going in the sense that it was very, like, it felt like, "Oh, these people are kind of off-putting to me, and they're gonna drag our party in a direction that's gonna make it impossible for us to win elections." And that wasn't 100% true, um, and I think the same thing is the case here, that I think there are certain positions that the, the sort of further left wing of the Democratic Party takes that have been a big political problem for Democrats. I think it is true that they pulled Democrats to, too far to the left on a number of things that gave Trump this big opening. Um, but with that said, like, I think in the case of New York City-The idea that suddenly, like, somebody like Mamdani is gonna win a primary for, like, the South Carolina senate seat, yeah, if that happens, then Democrats aren't winning the South Carolina senate seat. Like, that's true, but you also have to adapt to, like, what's, what's the right candidate for my area? And, like, who are, who are the voters there? What do they care about? Um, and so something that is okay in New York may not be okay if we're trying to pick up a swing congressional seat in Iowa. But smart parties are able to, to understand that different electorates exist in different places.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. And so, M- Mamdani's approach could be used by a centrist, right? It just depends if you're genuine. W- the, the qualities here are genuineness. And one of the things I was struck by is Bill Stepien, who's a very well-known, uh, Republican, um, campaign person, um, said, "Don't make fun of this guy." He's, like, in a similar way, people are like, I used to say, "Don't make fun of Trump." Like, Trump is interesting, right? Um, do you see that at all? He, it was interesting that he said that when they were sort of touting, "Oh, no, now we've got them," I'm like, "Do you?" Because he's really attractive, like, in so many ways.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I 100% agree with Stepien on this one. I, I think communication savvy, genuineness, as you described it, that matters so much. There is so much noise and there is so much stuff that politicians say and do that just sounds the same, and it just washes over people. Um, people can pick up a talking point from 1,000 yards away, and if you are able to communicate in a way that does not sound like you're just regurgitating talking points, that doesn't sound like it's something you've, you know, you're, you're just saying because, like, you've been fed it by a consultant, the benefit that... Uh, the thing that makes Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders similar is that you actually believe they believe the things they are saying at some level, and that goes a long way. Like, I believe Mamdani believes the things that he says. So even if I don't agree with them, like, at least that's, you get, you get some points for that.
- KSKara Swisher
What about freshness? Is that something that's important? What, do you think they're calling it an earthquake for the Democratic Party. Do you think that's the case?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I would caution everybody from reading too much into a primary election in New York, but I think it ought to be a wake-up call for anyone who thinks that you can just defend the status quo. Um, that this is a wake-up call that in order to win elections in 2025, you have to be the candidate of change. You have to be. You had to be the candidate of change in 2024, which was a big reason why Joe Biden was in trouble and then the handoff to Kamala Harris was ultimately unsuccessful. You have to be the candidate of change. You have to be the candidate of what's new. And Mamdani was able to channel that very, very, very effectively.
- KSKara Swisher
Now, one last question. What would you advise him to do now if he... Uh, you know, he's gonna do what he wants to do, but, eh, what's the most important thing he do?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I would advise Mamdani to focus in on the cost of living question relentlessly. Do not get pulled in these other directions. I'm, he has said and done a lot of things in his past that his opponents did not dredge up in the primary that are gonna get dredged up now, but I think if he keeps his moat, his message focused on cost of living and does not become over consultantified and keeps his message, uh, pretty focused on, "We need New York to be a livable city again," I think he will succeed. Now, if he ultimately becomes mayor and he tries to implement these policies and things like city-run grocery stores or rent freezes have all of these second and third order negative effects that folks on the right think are inevitably gonna happen, then the backlash will come. But for the moment, I do think that Republicans should be wary of thinking, "Oh, let's just elevate this guy, and, like, it'll be great that he's the face of the Democratic Party." I think media savvy populism really sells, and be careful of thinking that you can make that really, really, really unpopular.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. I al- always see them put up lists on Fox News, and I'm like, "That sounds good." (laughs) Like, it was just, I'm like, "Are you trying to get him elected?"
- 56:45 – 1:01:05
Predictions
- KSKara Swisher
It's, it's kind of funny. All right, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions. Okay, Kristen. Let's hear a prediction.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I predict that the F1 movie starring Brad Pitt, which came out a week ago and did very well at the box office, both domestically and globally, I think it's gonna have legs. Um, I know this weekend, it is going up against a new Jurassic Park movie, but I think this F1 movie is fantastic. I'm a big F1 fan. I saw it last week. I almost never see movies in theaters anymore, but it was so worth it. My prediction, this movie is gonna have legs.
- KSKara Swisher
Uh, I'm excited to see it. Um, my prediction has to do with Mark Zuckerberg's creation of Meta Superintelligence Labs this week. This is the group that'll be focusing on Meta's AI efforts. He's been on a hiring spree, grabbing, uh, top talent. Uh, Zoe Schiffer from Wired had a great scoop, "Zuckerberg offered pay packages up to $300 million over four years. One OpenAI staffer told Wired, 'That's about how much it would take for me to go work at Meta.'" Though, Meta is saying, "The size and structure of these compensation packages have been misrepresented all over the place." That's not, uh, he is trying very hard to do this. I do not think he's going to be successful. I mean, I don't think they did a lot of due diligence on Scale AI as much as they should've. I think it's a lot more internally, um, uh, kind of a chaos. I think there's gonna be a lot of chaos here. And just grabbing all these people and creating, like, an Avengers team, that's what they're calling it, uh, I don't think it always works. I don't think doing that is, is particularly smart. He has had a lot of misses, although the stock is at an all-time high. Let's be clear. They're doing great in the areas they've always done great in. Um, but, you know, he, he, he re- renamed the company Meta in order to go into the metaverse, and that was a $10, 20 billion disaster, and they can afford it. Um, I just don't think he has the same sense of innovation that someone like Elon Musk or, or even OpenAI or other companies has. So I think this might be, um, I think he can afford to do this, but I think it's really the wrong way to go about doing innovation. So, I'm not so sure it will pay off in the way he thinks it will. We'll see. How does he poll? Not well, I guess. Correct?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
I, I think, uh, most of the...... tech billionaire, uh, type folks have not polled particularly well. I think, like, 10 years ago, there was a sense of, like, cool and excitement around them, uh, that now has, has sort of faded.
- KSKara Swisher
Has waned. Yeah, yeah. I know, he's leading the way. Anyway, and the m- the wedding, the wedding probably didn't poll well, did it? Did you do a poll on the wedding?
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
(laughs) I have not... You know what? I haven't polled on it, but we're actually putting a survey in the field next week.
- KSKara Swisher
Put it in there.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
So if you think of any question you would want me to ask (laughs) the American public-
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs) .
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
... about this wedding, you let me know.
- KSKara Swisher
Was this a heinous display of wealth in the most grotesque and tasteless way? There's my question right there. Okay, but i-
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
If you had gotten invited, would you have gone? That might be an interesting question.
- KSKara Swisher
(sighs) You know, of course.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
That would be a fun crosstab, if nothing else. (laughs)
- KSKara Swisher
Of course. You wanna see this ridiculous traffic accident up close, I mean. And for the bag alone, the swag bag alone, I suppose, I guess. I don't know. I'd wanna see it, um, but I would be terrible and take pictures and put them out the whole time. I'd be terrible. The, I'd be the worst guest ever.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
You would be, you would break the rules right away? (laughs)
- KSKara Swisher
You remember wedding, wedding, uh, the wedding guests on the, The Wedding Crashers? That's Kara Swisher. Anyway, um, we wanna hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com/pivot to submit a question for this show or call 855-51-PIVOT. Okay, s- that's the show. Kristen, thank you so much. I find you to be so smart. I, like, I could almost become a Republican.
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
Oh, thank you for having me.
- KSKara Swisher
(laughs)
- KAKristen Soltis Anderson
It's just an honor to be on the big show.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, the big show. You're on the big show. You did, you delivered with all kinds of information. Scott should hang his hat. You have so much good data. And that's what's important to our listeners to get the real deal, um, and, and to really say what's happening, which is really important. Anyway, thanks for listening to Pivot, and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel, which is fast-growing actually. We'll be back next week. I will read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kevin Oliver. Ernie Enderdot engineered this episode. Thanks also to Kate Gallagher. Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
Episode duration: 1:01:05
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