Kara Swisher & Scott Galloway’s 2026 Predictions on AI, Stocks, Trump, and… Lesbians? | Pivot

1. 0:00 – 0:53

   Intro

   1. KSKara Swisher0:00

      (instrumental music plays) I was right. I was fucking dead right.

   2. SGScott Galloway0:02

      We predicted this.

   3. KSKara Swisher0:04

      Scott, you and I predicted in March that we would see a deal like this.

   4. SGScott Galloway0:07

      We predicted he would exit.

   5. KSKara Swisher0:09

      As I predicted last week. As I predicted. I knew this day was coming and how it would go down.

   6. SGScott Galloway0:13

      You did, you predicted it.

   7. KSKara Swisher0:14

      I did.

   8. SGScott Galloway0:15

      A new biography from Kara Swisher. And... dot, dot, dot... I Was Right!

   9. KSKara Swisher0:19

      But the thing is, I was right. (laughs) Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

   10. SGScott Galloway0:35

       And I'm Scott Galloway.

   11. KSKara Swisher0:36

       Scott, we're here for Your SuperCul, our annual predictions episode where we look past some of our past predictions and make some new ones. Are you ready?

   12. SGScott Galloway0:46

       So ready, yeah.

   13. KSKara Swisher0:46

       Okay. You have a lot, I know. I've got a few too, so-

   14. SGScott Galloway0:49

       You do.

   15. KSKara Swisher0:50

       ... you have to listen up to both of us. Okay. We're starting things off

2. 0:53 – 6:32

   AI Predictions

   1. KSKara Swisher0:53

      on the subject of AI, because we have to, we're obligated by... legally to do so. Uh, first, let's listen to a prediction you made on last year's Prediction podcast.

   2. SGScott Galloway1:02

      Okay. So briefly, 2025 will be the year of a new duopoly. It'll be Open-video. OpenAI and Nvidia right now control arguably 90% of all traffic in AI. 90% of the queries, 90% of the queries of the processors that are powering those answers to those queries are those two firms. And so it'll be kind of the new Wintel, and people will start referring it, to it as the most powerful duopoly in the world.

   3. KSKara Swisher1:26

      Well, interesting. That was absolutely true, except now it's Code Red at OpenAI, how things have moved. And obviously, Nvidia's still on top, but facing some, uh, possible competition in 2026. Any thoughts on that?

   4. SGScott Galloway1:38

      Yeah, I don't know if that was that, um, provocative a prediction, because it was already shaping up. The prediction I'm most proud of from last year is that I... every year I have a big tech stock pick-

   5. KSKara Swisher1:48

      Yeah.

   6. SGScott Galloway1:48

      ... and last year I picked Alphabet and it's up 68%-

   7. KSKara Swisher1:50

      Yeah.

   8. SGScott Galloway1:50

      ... since the prediction.

   9. KSKara Swisher1:52

      Mm-hmm.

   10. SGScott Galloway1:53

       But it was already sort of forming.

   11. KSKara Swisher1:55

       Mm-hmm.

   12. SGScott Galloway1:55

       Um, and it, it... but yeah, it, it continued, they continue to sort of be the, the duopoly with-

   13. KSKara Swisher2:02

       But not going forward.

   14. SGScott Galloway2:04

       What's interesting is similar to Wintel, people are coming for them, um, across, uh, you know, on both dimensions, but especially OpenAI. Uh, and I like your analogy that OpenAI might be the Netscape of, um, of our generation.

   15. KSKara Swisher2:21

       Yeah. I'm always waiting. Was it Netscape or Google? I think we're at that moment right now, um. It was Google for a little bit, but now it looks like Google's decided to be Google. And yeah, and you were right about that stock pick. Great one. Okay, time for both of us to have an AI prediction for 2026. Uh, Scott, you got a prediction about AI stocks.

   16. SGScott Galloway2:39

       Yeah, I think there's gonna be a major drawdown and it's because, uh, it all goes back to geopolitics. Uh, essentially Trump has adjusted tariff policy with China 17 times so far in his second term. I think they've pretty much had it with this guy, and they've now said... uh, they're now in the closest thing they could get into, short of a hot war. And so basically China is totally diversifying away from the US in terms of exports. Their export volumes are up 40% since 2019, while imports are only up 1%, and over the same period, the US share of China's exports fell from 17 to 10%. And the reason that... that sets the context here and that's I think China's about to go for the jugular here, and I think that they're going to massively engage in what I'll refer to as AI dumping. And that is these open-way models, including Qn3 max, um... the, the, uh, these models, uh, are just much cheaper, lower power consumption, and everyone from Airbnb to other Fortune 500 firms are starting to recognize that these things are lower cost. And, uh, I think essentially China's gonna say, "Okay, the fastest way to kick this guy in the nuts is that he's made a giant bet on AI, including the S&P and his entire economy on AI, and we're just gonna start dumping AI into the US market." And as a result, I think you're gonna see a massive re-rating down, and also the, the, the harsh truth is, these open-way models coming out of China are getting to technical parity, and the fastest way to build a big business is to offer 80% of the liter at 50% of the price, and that's what they're doing. Uh, so I think you're gonna see massive pressure placed on OpenAI, and I think that is gonna, um... and other US-based models, and I think that's gonna cause a re-rating down of these stocks. And even 80% of A16, uh, Z startups use Chinese open source models.

   17. KSKara Swisher4:28

       Okay.

   18. SGScott Galloway4:28

       Uh, so anyways, I think we're gonna see, uh, a massive re-rating down of the Magnificent Seven-

   19. KSKara Swisher4:33

       Yeah.

   20. SGScott Galloway4:33

       ... at the hands of, uh, AI dumping from China.

   21. KSKara Swisher4:36

       Yeah, that means data centers go down, the whole thing. Oof. Ouch. Watch out below. All right. Mine is, um, in an area that I keep thinking about a lot, I've spent a lot of time thinking about it, which is robotics. And I think the combination of AI and robotics has not been fully plumbed enough, and I really do think the, um... that we are not paying attention to what all the innovation that's happening there, because we get focused on Elon's stupid Optimus robots that are running around doing our laundry. I think they're, uh, uh, in manufacturing, in all kinds of areas, robotics are gonna really start to become really interesting. Cars, I consider that robotics. Um, the smarts of them with- combined with robotics is really where the big changes we're gonna see in our society. I just do. I don't mean... again, a, a bot making your coffee, but it's not gonna look like what you think. That, you know... because I think it's really hard, as many robotics people tell you, to make a hand work, and where we're focusing is so anthropomorphic, um, that I think it's a mistake. I think there'll be robotics in lots and lots and lots and lots of things, and, and especially when combined with AI. One of the things I tested was in Korea, these, um, these, these essentially exoskeletons now have AI embedded in them and they work so much better. And so you can see it being applied all over the place, and these are braces, they look like braces, and before they were mechanical, that would help you walk. Now AI helps decide how you do it, and I think they're nothing short of miraculous. And so that's where you're gonna see some... that's, that's my area in AI, is focusing in on its applications in, in a wide range of different products across robotics.

   22. SGScott Galloway6:08

       I love that, and, and just to add some-... texture that.

   23. KSKara Swisher6:11

       Mm-hmm.

   24. SGScott Galloway6:11

       I think where you will see shareholder gains from AI won't be in AI. It'll be in AI applications, specifically-

   25. KSKara Swisher6:17

       Yeah.

   26. SGScott Galloway6:17

       ... Autonomous.

   27. KSKara Swisher6:18

       Mm-hmm.

   28. SGScott Galloway6:18

       Specifically, Waymo. And as you said, the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics, specifically Amazon, and we'll come back to that.

   29. KSKara Swisher6:26

       Yeah, abs- they- and they have been early to that, by the way. Okay, next category, business. Scott, let's listen

3. 6:32 – 11:58

   Business Predictions

   1. KSKara Swisher6:32

      to a prediction you made back in April.

   2. SGScott Galloway6:34

      I think you're going to see in the next one or two weeks a cadre of Fortune 500 CEOs, Republicans stand up, business leaders stand up and say, "Okay, enough already. While you all claim he's playing 4D chess, at this point we're worried he's gonna start eating the pieces."

   3. KSKara Swisher6:51

      Hm, not so much. Although R- J- Jamie Dimon sort of yelled at Maria Bartiromo the other day, but not so much.

   4. SGScott Galloway6:58

      Yeah. Um, yeah, I don't have any comment. (laughs)

   5. KSKara Swisher7:02

      Yeah, they really have turned out to be profiles in non-courage. That's really something else.

   6. SGScott Galloway7:06

      I just don't- And I still don't get it quite frankly. I still don't understand what's the point of having all this money and if you don't nod to the principles that got you this wealthy... I- I don't- I just don't- I don't get it. I don't understand it. These guys are bulletproof. Why are they- what are they worried about?

   7. KSKara Swisher7:25

      Yep, agree. I think it's just the- one of the most disappointing things you've seen here. I think it's surprised everybody, a lot of people.

   8. SGScott Galloway7:31

      Yeah.

   9. KSKara Swisher7:31

      Anyway, you've got an investment prediction here and then I have one. Go ahead.

   10. SGScott Galloway7:35

       Uh, you mean my stock pick?

   11. KSKara Swisher7:37

       Yes.

   12. SGScott Galloway7:38

       So my big tech stock pick, every year I pick a big tech stock pick, and my stock pick this year is, uh, and when I say outperform, if- if AI- if AI throws up, everything's going down, folks. So what I'm saying-

   13. KSKara Swisher7:50

       Mm-hmm.

   14. SGScott Galloway7:50

       ... is this stock will perform better. That might be down 10 instead of down 50. But my big tech pick for 2026 is Amazon. It's been an underperformer.

   15. KSKara Swisher8:00

       Mm.

   16. SGScott Galloway8:00

       Year-to-date it's only up 7%.

   17. KSKara Swisher8:03

       I like it.

   18. SGScott Galloway8:03

       And also, its revenue per employee is down 28% versus up 49, 56 and 62 at Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft respectively because they have made massive investments that have not yet yielded payoffs in, see above what Kara said, robotics. Um, but what you're gonna see here is that, uh, they've started laying off employees. I'm not saying that's a good thing. But Google's laid off 2,500, Meta 4,600, Tesla 14,000, Amazon's laid off 18,000. And what's just so striking is that Amazon is predicting it can double the revenue in its retail group, which is as big as top line revenue business, with no increase in employees. And I think the chocolate and peanut butter of AI and robotics at Amazon is huge. And Amazon is really the Ford of the 21st century and that is over several years Ford was able to take the- the time to- to manufacture a car down, um, 90% and Amazon just, uh, since its acquisition of Kiva Robots has been able to take down click to fulfill or to ship down by 80%. And if you want to talk about, uh, your prediction around investment in robotics, here is the number of operational industrial robots. Uh, China has two million. The US, excluding Amazon, has 400,000. Amazon has a million operational industrial robots. So Amazon has two and a half times the number of operational robots, industrial robots, as the rest of the nation combined. So they have made an enormous bet, and typically more margin expansion from Amazon has come from its media group, where you have it forced to advertise, or from its cloud group. But you're going to see a margin expansion at the hands of operational efficiencies from robotics and AI in its retail group. It's also, I don't want to say cheap right now, but reasonably priced. It typically trades at a P multiple over the last five years of 58. Now it's at 33 and its enterprise value to EBITDA is usually 23 and now it's 17. So in sum, my- I- I think it's fairly- it's not- it's at fair value right now and I think you're about to see the mother of all margin expansion at the hands of AI and robotics, so my big tech stock pick for '26 is Amazon.

   19. KSKara Swisher10:30

       Yeah, I like it. So Amazon it is. Really interesting. Um, I'm gonna... You know, there's a lot of IPOs coming up. We've talked about, um, SpaceX, a bunch of others. Um, and, uh, I think that's all very interesting, but, you know, you talked about that there was a lot of worry about the stock market declines couple years ahead of the- the- the decline, right?

   20. SGScott Galloway10:50

       Mm-hmm.

   21. KSKara Swisher10:51

       I just feel like with this midterm election coming up, we may have a more of a stock d- market downturn before that. Like, I- I don't like to call these 'cause I'm not an expert in this way, but the- I- it- it- it feel- investors feel very fragile, it seems like.

   22. SGScott Galloway11:05

       Mm-hmm.

   23. KSKara Swisher11:05

       And anything affects them, and I know it's been a surging stock market. It really has, sort of against all the odds and all the deficits and every... It seems to, like, ignore that, but I don't think it could ignore it for two or three more years. I- I think sometime in 2026, maybe at- right after the midterms, which I think everyone needs to be paying attention to, obviously, um, this year, we may start to see, like, maybe the stock market not being so good for Trump. Uh, I- I think that's he- has helped buoy him. And as you said, if China does things like you were talking about, you're gonna see- where you're gonna see the declines are in these tech companies. So I just feel like there's- there's gonna be a real- a lot of volatility around the companies that you talked about in the first place. All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, more predictions. Okay, Scott, let's talk politics. I'm not sure we could have predicted most of the mess that was the 2025

4. 11:58 – 24:04

   Politics Predictions

   1. KSKara Swisher11:58

      politics. We did okay. We did get one thing right about a certain breakup. Let's listen to what, uh, I said on- in November of 2024.

   2. NANarrator12:06

      I think these people can't coexist together in the same room for much- for too long. That's my- that's my sense. Maybe I'll be completely wrong, but I feel like- that Trump likes the attention and Elon likes the attention and there's only so much attention to go around.

   3. KSKara Swisher12:23

      And I had a cold then. Let's hear what you had to say on the matter in February.

   4. SGScott Galloway12:26

      I think Doge is gonna be over and done by the end of the year.

   5. KSKara Swisher12:30

      Okay, we got that one right. We just did. We just knew it. He's sort of back, I guess.

   6. SGScott Galloway12:35

      Yeah, but they, it, they saved $2 billion.

   7. KSKara Swisher12:37

      Yeah.

   8. SGScott Galloway12:37

      (laughs)

   9. KSKara Swisher12:38

      No, he saved nothing. He killed people.

   10. SGScott Galloway12:39

       He's about to unwittingly, and I'm not saying he meant to do this, but he will probably end up on some list along with Stalin, Pol Pot, Hitler. Uh, there will be people... People will start to aggregate lists. I don't know if Trump or Musk will be on that list, but when you look at the hundreds of thousands of people who can be direct... whose fatality or death can be directly linked to a lack or a cutoff of USAID-

   11. KSKara Swisher13:01

       Mm-hmm.

   12. SGScott Galloway13:02

       ... they're gonna end up on some of those lists.

   13. KSKara Swisher13:03

       Yeah. And I think we got the Doge thing right. They're still there. Some of them are still there, but, you know, you know, look, it's fine to want to save money and be more efficient, but the way he did it was so ham-handed and cruel and, and pointless. I, I met some USAID people last night at an event, and they were doing astonishing work, and it was all soft diplomacy, you know, soft, uh, power and stuff. Just the, the damage he's done 'cause he's such a, like, demented addict of some sort was really, really stupid, and I think he just wanted to break, like, me break thing, bye kind of thing. And it wasn't thoughtful. There's thoughtful ways to figure out how to be more efficient, and he didn't use none of them. And it was inevitable that he would fight with Trump. He'll still be hanging around the basket 'cause he's such a toxic figure, and Trump will use him as he wants, but Trump certainly, uh, if only if he has use for him will he be around. Um, okay, I've already made, uh, one politics prediction for 2026. Let's play a clip as a reminder. You know, I'm a big believer, as people know when I covered Silicon Valley and the leak-

   14. SGScott Galloway14:03

       Right. Right.

   15. KSKara Swisher14:04

       ... and I think there's gonna be people leaking this stuff-

   16. SGScott Galloway14:07

       Yeah.

   17. KSKara Swisher14:07

       ... over, and it's gonna be drip, drip, drip, and this is something I think, you know, it'd be super ironic that this guy gets taken down by emails.

   18. NANarrator14:19

       (laughs)

   19. SGScott Galloway14:20

       You love that.

   20. KSKara Swisher14:21

       I feel like we're gonna have President J.D. Vance by the end of 2026.

   21. SGScott Galloway14:25

       Y- you-

   22. KSKara Swisher14:26

       I get it, that he is the-

   23. SGScott Galloway14:27

       So wait, hold on. You think this ends his presidency prematurely?

   24. KSKara Swisher14:30

       Yes.

   25. SGScott Galloway14:31

       Wow.

   26. KSKara Swisher14:31

       He'll be sick. He'll be da, da-da-da, da-da. Yeah.

   27. SGScott Galloway14:34

       See-

   28. KSKara Swisher14:34

       I do. I think he's not-

   29. SGScott Galloway14:35

       I-

   30. KSKara Swisher14:35

       ... gonna make it to the end.
5. 24:04 – 33:02

   Media Predictions

   1. KSKara Swisher24:04

      I said about our favorite movie. Wicked for Good was amazing, I have to say.

   2. SGScott Galloway24:08

      It's a play?

   3. KSKara Swisher24:09

      It's a movie. It's the sequel. It's like gonna be an enormous huge box office this year. Yeah, it's not qui- it hasn't quite reached this- the first one, but yeah, it's huge, just so you know. I think it's $375 million and, uh, and- and less good songs.

   4. SGScott Galloway24:25

      Both those checks are just fucking awful. (laughs)

   5. KSKara Swisher24:28

      Uh, no, they're not. That may be.

   6. SGScott Galloway24:30

      Oh, God.

   7. KSKara Swisher24:30

      I don't care. I'm always right, you know.

   8. SGScott Galloway24:32

      Oh my God, it's a helicopter.

   9. KSKara Swisher24:33

      Oh my God. (laughs)

   10. SGScott Galloway24:33

       We're in a quasi-de- deme, parasocial age.

   11. KSKara Swisher24:36

       Doesn't matter.

   12. SGScott Galloway24:37

       These people... And they weigh 45 fucking pounds.

   13. KSKara Swisher24:39

       Yeah, I know, that is an issue.

   14. SGScott Galloway24:39

       Yeah, they're great role models for a 15-year-old.

   15. KSKara Swisher24:41

       That is, I would say that is an issue-

   16. SGScott Galloway24:43

       Oh my God.

   17. KSKara Swisher24:43

       ... worth discussing. I don't usually like to talk about people's looks, but in that case-

   18. SGScott Galloway24:46

       They're disappearing.

   19. KSKara Swisher24:48

       Uh, all of them, the entire cast. It's really weird. Anyway, uh, I agree, it's concerning. Let's just say concerning. But let me say, I was right. I al- you are never right about what's popular.

   20. SGScott Galloway24:58

       About media? Oh, no.

   21. KSKara Swisher24:59

       Except Pluribus.

   22. SGScott Galloway25:00

       My prediction is that all World War II and color documentaries are the biggest media figures.

   23. KSKara Swisher25:04

       Okay, I understand, Grant.

   24. SGScott Galloway25:05

       (laughs)

   25. KSKara Swisher25:05

       But listen-

   26. SGScott Galloway25:06

       (sighs)

   27. KSKara Swisher25:06

       ... you're right about Pluribus. Oh my God.

   28. SGScott Galloway25:08

       Oh, yeah, Pluribus is good.... Vince Gilligan or Galligan. Vince Galligan?

   29. KSKara Swisher25:12

       HDP, HDP and John Cena. I'm not, we're not... This, this is going in many directions.

   30. SGScott Galloway25:17

       What's HDP? I think I'm on it. Is that human growth hormone?
6. 33:02 – 38:27

   Wildcard Predictions

   1. KSKara Swisher33:02

      oysters. We love them. Uh, I'm gonna go first, okay? I'm gonna go first. Uh, as I said, as you know, Claire Danes on The Beast in Me. You got Rhea Seehorn in, uh, Pluralibus. Uh, and there's a new Hunting Wives coming. They're not just difficult. Lesbians are murderous. Okay?

   2. SGScott Galloway33:19

      (laughs)

   3. KSKara Swisher33:19

      There is gonna ... There's gonna be so much lesbian content. Angry lesbians with guns, angry lesbians who are upset, angry lesbians who are fighting. The h- hive mind. I just ... This is a trend that I like. I like lesbians running shit and taking names and shutting people down. And I love th- My- Rhea Seehorn on ... as Carol, Hello Carol, is my favorite character of all time. I ... Everyone's like, "Oh, she's such an ass," and I'm like, "I love her." So more angry, dyspeptic, go-fuck-yourself lesbians for 2026. That's how I feel. Thank you.

   4. SGScott Galloway33:57

      I know lesbians get divorced faster.

   5. KSKara Swisher34:00

      Yeah.

   6. SGScott Galloway34:00

      Do they show up on the second day with a U-Haul?

   7. KSKara Swisher34:02

      Oh, stop it. Such an old trope.

   8. SGScott Galloway34:04

      It's-

   9. KSKara Swisher34:04

      Now we're angry with guns. You understand?

   10. SGScott Galloway34:06

       It's-

   11. KSKara Swisher34:06

       We're murderous and having a lot of sex. That's what's happening.

   12. SGScott Galloway34:08

       I didn't know you guys dated. I thought you just watched Riverdale, hugged for two hours, and then agreed never to see each other again.

   13. KSKara Swisher34:13

       No, not these lesbians. Oh, no, not these lesbians.

   14. SGScott Galloway34:16

       (laughs)

   15. KSKara Swisher34:16

       Go watch Hunting Wives. Can you please put that on your thing?

   16. SGScott Galloway34:19

       I'm a big fan of, uh, streaming video, uh, with lesbian content. I'm-

   17. KSKara Swisher34:22

       Well, go watch it, 'cause it's sexy as fuck-

   18. SGScott Galloway34:25

       Yeah. Really?

   19. KSKara Swisher34:25

       ... let me just say. Yes, it is.

   20. SGScott Galloway34:26

       What's it called? Who's in it?

   21. KSKara Swisher34:28

       Mallory Ackerman and Brittany Snow. There are guns. There's a lot of lesbian sex, the way, kind you like, as I said.

   22. SGScott Galloway34:34

       I'll see it twice.

   23. KSKara Swisher34:36

       I'm just saying. I'm just saying. Angry, gun-toting, dyspeptic, fuck-the-hive-mind, I-don't-like-LI- uh, AI lesbians are the trend of 2026. Thank you.

   24. SGScott Galloway34:49

       All right. My mind's not as cool as this. Um-

   25. KSKara Swisher34:51

       Mm-hmm.

   26. SGScott Galloway34:52

       Uh, best investment you don't have access to is TikTok.

   27. KSKara Swisher34:55

       Oh, yeah.

   28. SGScott Galloway34:56

       Essentially, um-

   29. KSKara Swisher34:57

       Did you get shares? Have you gotten in there yet?

   30. SGScott Galloway34:59

       Well, no, I'm a Democrat.

Episode duration: 38:27