PivotThe Right-Wing “Redemption Tour” Is Here… But Is It Real? | Pivot
EVERY SPOKEN WORD
60 min read · 12,120 words- 0:00 – 0:14
Intro
- KSKara Swisher
See? We've had a good discussion about this. We're still getting dragged online, and I get dragged with you.
- SGScott Galloway
[laughs]
- KSKara Swisher
Thanks, Scott. [upbeat music] Let's get to the news.
- 0:14 – 24:54
Tucker Carlson and Right Wing Redemption
- KSKara Swisher
Uh, first, Tucker Carlson, one of Trump's biggest supporters over the last few years, now says he regrets helping, uh, get Trump elected. He offered an apology on the latest episode of "The Tucker Carlson Show" while speaking with his, uh, brother Buckley, a former Trump speechwriter. Uh, uh, Tucker and Buckley. Oh, my goodness. [chuckles] Let's, uh, let's, uh, listen.
- SPSpeaker
You wrote speeches for him. I campaigned for him. We, we're implicated in this, for sure.
- SGScott Galloway
Yes.
- SPSpeaker
It's not enough to say, "Well, I changed my mind," or like, "Oh, this is bad. I'm out." It's like in s- very small ways, but in real ways, you and me and millions of people like us are the reason this is happening right now.
- SGScott Galloway
Yes.
- SPSpeaker
So I do think it's, like, a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. Uh, you know, we'll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be. And, and I want to say I'm sorry for misleading people, and it was not intentional. That's all I'll say.
- KSKara Swisher
So Tucker might be tormented. Uh, is he trying to pull a Joe Rogan? Is he going back to Trump to, to... when he needs something? I mean, he's done this before in those emails during that tr- uh, the, the, um, the, the, uh, the trial that Fox had and lost. Uh, he would call them demonic. He was-- He's been here, and I don't think Trump has been anything but explicit about what he is for a very long time. So I'd love to talk about this and the idea of redemption, like, that Rogan was trying to do. And of course, the minute he gave him his psychedelics, he shows right up. And H- and Greene is one. You know, you got a lot of pushback for, uh, for your Ben Shapiro comments this week. This week, I've gotten a l-
- SGScott Galloway
Not my comments, my interview.
- KSKara Swisher
Your interview, excuse me, but also what you said a-about him and stuff. So these people seem to be moving this way in a way that's... Is it real? Is it not real? How much should we hold people responsible for the things they've said previously? Greene has been terrible. Ben has been many things or not s- This stuff, especially around trans and people of color, h-has been repugnant to me, at least. Um, gay people-
- SGScott Galloway
But you would put Ben and Tucker in the same category?
- KSKara Swisher
I'd put them, I'd put them all in a different way because I think a lot of what Ben has said previously is really, if I read it... I mean, I can read it to you if you'd like. I want to talk about the bigger idea of giving people space. They are obviously, Tucker is, and Rogan is, and Theo Von is, and Marjorie Taylor Greene are trying, e-even Megyn Kelly, on this sort of redemption tour in a weird way, and I don't... I, I not necessarily believe it. But I want to talk about this issue of when you let people say, "I made a mistake a couple years ago when I said this heinous thing. Forgive me." That, which is what Tucker's asking for here.
- SGScott Galloway
Look, uh, this is sort of do as I say, not as I do, because I think the right thing is be careful shaming people for saying they were wrong and coming back into the fold. Uh, uh, you know, because that's how we, that's how we maintain our virtue and indignance in elected, elect J.D. Vance. I think we just need to be a little bit more... When people say, "I fucked up, and this guy is bad," fine, welcome them. I, I, uh, that's the smart thing to do. I have a difficult time resisting calling, you know, telling Marjorie Taylor Greene or a difficult time not telling her to sit down when all of a sudden, you know, when it no longer matters, and h-he doesn't get his support or endorsement to run for Senate, she's all of a sudden decided that he's bad. For me, when I saw those comments from Tucker, I-- it seemed to me to be a... I, I thought, I, I think I absolutely know what's going on here.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
He's running for president, Kara.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah. Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
And do you realize what an enormous lane there is for somebody who has very conservative values, an enormous media platform, an enormous army of acolytes that he could weaponize right away and, by the way, is anti-Trump and anti-the war in Iran, which a huge swath of Republicans are now. Who occupies that lane right now? And I, I disagree with Kalish here on this. I think here and now, Tucker Carlson is the most likely GOP nominee for president in 2028. Put him on stage with Rubio and Vance, he's gonna slice and dice them. So, uh, uh, uh, we do, I believe, as Democrats, and I realize I bring some bias to the table, I think he could go six, seven people deep. I think, you know, the, the eighth mo-most likely person to get the nomination, like a Senator Klobuchar or, uh, an Ossoff, they are 10 times better than the person leading in the prediction platforms for the Republican Party, J.D. Vance. We are-- We have a deep bench. As deep as our bench is, theirs is that shallow. J.D. Vance? I mean, he makes... Jesus Christ, he makes Goebbels likable. I mean, the guy, uh, uh, the, the guy is unattractive. They're gonna have a field day taking all of his statements and his gymnastics and his hyp-hypocrisy and his weirdness, whether it's saying that the Pope should be more careful to speaking to notions of, of, of religion. W-W-- I mean, he's said so many ridiculous things that they're gonna have a field day with.
- KSKara Swisher
Yes, he's shifted rather a lot. But is, is-
- SGScott Galloway
And then they'll connect them, and they haven't even started connecting him to Thiel and that fucking weirdness.
- KSKara Swisher
Well, do, do you-- But the shifting-ness of this Tucker thing, for example, I mean, I, uh... Didn't he know, or why did he suddenly know? Or was it just because it's Israel and, um, uh, and this Iran war? What, w-what, what is it? It's like, how do you believe-
- SGScott Galloway
It's calculated. It's strategy.
- KSKara Swisher
It, in this case, it's calculated, 'cause I think he's already said this privately, and it got out in those legal filings. And so-
- SGScott Galloway
He's always, he's always hated Trump. I think anyone-- I think Tucker's a smart guy.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
I think anyone who's intelligentAnd whatever you say about Tucker, I, I don't know. He, he's an intelligent, impressive media figure. He is very good at what he does, and he could not stand Trump, and then saw that his audience was going there, and that's the way he was gonna make money, was to be just blindly supportive of Trump. Now he sees an opening. Uh, he's the, he's the leading candidate for president.
- KSKara Swisher
How does he escape the heinous things he's said? Like, there... A lot-- Look, Greene has-
- SGScott Galloway
He's trying to recast himself. He's apologized, and now he has two years to take on an anti-Trump, uh, Republican. He has two years to basically carve out and cement a lane of, "I am anti-Trump. I'm an anti-Trump conservative that was anti-war," that neither Vance nor Rubio can carve out. He's, he's very well-positioned.
- KSKara Swisher
Right. But then how do you... Uh, I, I wanna talk about the bigger picture-
- SGScott Galloway
Sure
- KSKara Swisher
... of escaping this, like the Marjorie Taylor Greenes. Uh, and m- and Shapiro was doing that. And, and, uh, y- you know we've gotten some, a lot of fl- I get the ear flak, too. Um-
- SGScott Galloway
Bring it on.
- 24:54 – 36:44
End of the Tim Cook Era
- KSKara Swisher
people we may have to forgive, Apple will have a new CEO for the first time in 15 years come September. Tim Cook is stepping down as CEO and will move into a new role as, as Apple's executive chairman. Trump praised Tr- uh, Cook in a post on Truth Social, also saying, quote, "I was very impressed with myself to have the head of Apple calling to kiss my ass," unquote. Unfortunately, this was accurate. Uh, John Ternus, the head of Apple's hardware engineering, will succeed Cook, first product person running the company in a while. He's been with the company for 25 years, overseeing the engineering of the iPhone, iPad, and Mac. Uh, talk about the legacy, and you, you will have to include sort of being tainted by this relationship with Trump, including recently the statue and the Melania thing. And Ternus is joining Apple as the company is fighting for a space in the AI race and product innovation. Um, talk a little bit about predictions for the Ternus era and looking back at the Cook era. May I start?
- SGScott Galloway
Of course.
- KSKara Swisher
I have to say, he's 10X the amount, the value of the company. When, when Steve gave him the reins and then died, everyone thought it was curtains for the company, and that has not been the case. He has been innovative with AirPods and Watch and not, just not as sexy as Sc- as Steve Jobs has been or s- as visionary. So I think he's been a great, um, a, a great leader for them. At, that said, he was tarnished by some China st- uh, all the China manufacturing stuff, for sure, um, because he's a logistics guy. He, he was maybe too much of an automaton on that, those human rights issues. And then the President Trump stuff is not a great look, but I think he was taking one for the team, would be my guess in that regard. Uh, as a person, I really like him. He's, he's been, he's a really, um, calm person. I think he could've been slightly more outspoken about gay issues [laughs] , but that's his choice. Again, I don't, I don't force gay people to have to talk about it. But he's a good, um, role model. Probably could've talked a little bit more about it, that's my only... But that's, again, his choice. Um, and I get why people don't want to. So your thoughts?
- SGScott Galloway
I think pe- people's careers are, you know, the second in the blink of a, the, of the corporate world and the universe, that second, 35 millimeters, right? It, it, no one gets all 35 millimeters perfect, and Tim Cook's running at 34 and a half. So to not... This is his legacy. Tim Cook is the most successful successor in corporate history. He-- Uh, talk about a guy that was set up to fail by virtue of the idolatry of the person he was taking over for. There were immediately second-guessing Tim Cook.
- KSKara Swisher
And the record. His record [laughs] was pretty amazing.
- SGScott Galloway
Well-
- KSKara Swisher
The record itself, not just idolatry.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah, it's like, okay, who inherits Jesus's man-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
Steve Jobs was the new Jesus because we had shifted from idolizing our athletes and our government officials to the idolatry of innovators, as identified and marked by Steve Jobs, and then who was taken from us early, like Jesus. I mean, it was just, he was, he has become a mythical godlike figure.
- KSKara Swisher
He certainly has.
- SGScott Galloway
So any guy [laughs] taking, you wanna talk about the biggest shoes to fill in history, and what did Tim Cook do? He took the stock up tenfold. Operationally, he built the most, probably the most robust, impressive supply chain in history. He figured out a way in a foreign nation to take advantage of the collision between advanced manufacturing and low wages and somehow get 2,000 parts to one place or different places for assembly and build a supercomputer for $400 that if you tried to build it anywhere else would cost $4,000. He figured it out. He also, uh, created, and people say he wasn't a new product guy. My favorite technology in history, in history-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... these things.
- KSKara Swisher
The AirPods. You love your AirPods.
- SGScott Galloway
And AirPods, if they were their own business, would be a Fortune 50 company.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
And it's, I think of it, it's the most successful piece of jewelry in history and the highest margin. In addition, what he decided to do was to say, "Okay, I'm not gonna launch new products. I'm gonna take existing products and applications and take a phone and evolve it to a supercomputer where you have payments, where you have music."
- KSKara Swisher
So an ecosystem is what you're talking about, creating an ecos-
- SGScott Galloway
But he, he took the iPhone from a phone-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... to a supercomputer in your pocket that was media, transactions-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, ecosystem
- SGScott Galloway
... and, and it became, the iPhone pulled off the impossible, and that is if you want really high margins like Ferrari, it's a niche with limited volumes. If you want super high volumes like a Toyota, you have to price it to get low margins. The iPhone is the only product in history that's managed to get the production volume of a Toyota with the margins of a Ferrari. The iPhone has created more gross margin dollars than any product in history. Arguably speaking, the iPhone is the most successful product in history. There's been nothing like it. He did it with a lot of grace. There wasn't anyone shit posting or leaving or filing lawsuits, and if you wanna talk about Apple's ascent past, say, Samsung or AndroidGo buy a phone, an Android phone. You're, you're talking to a guy with a name-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... tag named Roy who's living with his parents in a-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... bad place with bad carpeting. And then you walk-
- KSKara Swisher
They're still not great, I'll tell you that. There's, there's some beautiful form-
- SGScott Galloway
They're still awful.
- 36:44 – 46:30
SpaceX IPO & Tesla Earnings
- KSKara Swisher
we're back. As SpaceX blockbuster IPO approaches, the company is doubling down on AI, striking a deal with Cursor, a coding startup for a possible sixty billion dollar acquisition. Uh, also some new details from the IPO filing. Elon and a group of insiders will have control of the company through a dual stock, uh, a dual class stock structure. What a surprise. Elon increased his stake in SpaceX last year, buying one point four billion dollars worth of stock from current and former employees. He stands to get sixty million more in shares if SpaceX market cap reaches six point six trillion dollars and the company completes a plan to build data centers in space. Slight hitch, the IPO prospectus warns that data centers and plans for the Moon and Mars rely on unproven tech and might not be commercially viable. Um, it-- Let me just add, um, uh, talk about these plans. In, in other news, Tesla is out with its latest earnings, reporting better than expected numbers, but still way below levels from a few years ago. One bright spot, the company said demand around the world is growing obviously because of rising fuel prices, increased demand for EVs, and they're the frontrunner in that. Shares initially rose in extended trading, but gave up those gains since Elon warned that significant increase in capital CapEx, which he noted was gonna start at twenty-five billion dollars for robots and all sorts of large, ambitious projects. I don't really care the deals. That was cool. If it would work, great. If they don't, too bad, or, you know, shareholders. Um, uh, you know, again, it's the Tesla-- the car business is not the business anymore, so he's gotta reach for something else. I don't fault them for that. Um, any, uh, any thoughts about the IPO and then Tesla?
- SGScott Galloway
Well, the, the, the news is their acquisition or announced acquisition of Cursor, and my sense is that xAI has not figured out a way to develop a revenue model or a product that garners revenue well-
- KSKara Swisher
Well, all the, all the founders have left, except for Elon, I think. There's nobody left
- SGScott Galloway
... and Cursor is their attempt, I think, to bolt on a front end that has a commercially viable product.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, you're right.
- SGScott Galloway
The, the other observation I would make is that, you know, liars use-- statisticians lie and liars use statistics. Some of these numbers are just such bullshit. So when OpenAI said they were raising money at eight hundred and fifty billion, okay, call it a trillion if you guarantee me a seventeen percent preferred return and I have a liquidity preference. I don't care what number you put on [chuckles] the, the press release. And then, you know, I mean, Anthropic here now is worth more than, um, than OpenAI, but according to OpenAI's press release, they're worth two and a half times. The number that's a lie here that I'd wanna know more information about is a sixty billion dollar acquisition price, and I would bet it's structured something along the lines of the following, that if we go public and get a one and a half or two trillion dollar, um, market cap, we're gonna give you options worth three percent of the company, which da-da-da, is sixty billion dollars. They don't have sixty billion dollars in cash anywhere. So-
- KSKara Swisher
And also Andreessen's all mobbed up with that one, I think, and a whole bunch. They're all the same people.
- SGScott Galloway
But they wanna put out a headline number of sixty billion dollars-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm. Sure do
- SGScott Galloway
... to connote more value in this thing than is probably there. Let me be clear. No one, no one is cashing a check for sixty billion dollars right now. [chuckles] So, uh, look, I think that, uh, like Musk with respect to business and what I'll call perception and pulling in a narrative around getting access to cheap capital to pull the future forward, he's likely the best in history, maybe with the exception of, I don't know, Netflix and Amazon played that game really, really deftly as well. But his ability to kinda continue to say, "No, look over here," as I stuff the rabbit into the hat. Oh, wait, you figured out Tesla is like just a mediocre auto company with low mar-- Wait, look over here. Oh, SpaceX has only got twelve billion in revenues and one and a half... Oh, wait, look over here. I mean, it's just... A-and integrating space connectivity, broadband, satellites, AI, autonomous-
- KSKara Swisher
Data centers in space
- SGScott Galloway
... it's all-
- KSKara Swisher
Not a bad idea. [chuckles]
- SGScott Galloway
It is like every eight-year-old boy's dream.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
I mean, it's like a company-
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah
- SGScott Galloway
... envisioned for an eight-year-old.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
But he is very good at this. He's very good at, in creating one plus one plus a little bit of jazz hands equals one and a half trillion dollars. And, uh, I look at this acquisition, makes no fucking sense. It's bullshit, the sixty billion, uh, dollar number. It's probably a good idea 'cause xAI needs more human capital, and it needs something. It, it... Quite frankly, it just needs more product management.
- KSKara Swisher
He has to hide things in things. That's why Twitter went into Grok, right, into xAI, because he had to hide it in there, like the losses and the declines and whatever. It's still m-m-- hugely influential for him. Same thing with this, his, his Grok thing, like all the people who he started it and touted it with have left. Um, so he's gotta make... You know, he, he makes, uh, shit into a very tasty shit sandwich sometimes. Um, and, and spending... You know, you're just gonna get what you get with this guy. He's gonna always advantage himself. Um, he wants to do cool things. He's gonna take your money to pay for it. And th-these numbers are insane, but they'll probably go up. So, uh, we don't-- we can't say don't invest, but the fact of the matter is they're, they're, you know... R- Are there gonna be a million robots in their homes? You can... And you can... By the way, there's a million movies of him talking about, uh, full self-driving, and I'm-- I didn't even get into this year, but it didn't happen. Like, everything he said was gonna happen didn't happen. But he's really good at raising money. He's really good at innovating certain things, but then he moves on. And so I think you just have to go with... Uh, y- And then he has the Starlink in the middle of it, and so that's, that's what you get with this guy. Um, the question is, is it rabbits and, and silliness, or is it the real thing? It-- and does it hardly matter given the spheres go up?
- SGScott Galloway
See, this is a problem. When you control a board and you have made [chuckles] all the board members a lot of money, you end up doing deals that have no fiduciary oversight. So in this instance, and this shit is boring, but no one pays attention to this stuff.It, it, it was a share for share deal when, when SpaceX acquired xAI, and they valued xAI at seventy-six bucks and SpaceX at five hundred and twenty-seven. If SpaceX had a board that could push back, they would say, "No, xAI is not worth in any way, um, two hundred and seventy billion," which is the value they're putting on Twitter with an AI veneer. Uh, no, it's not worth that, so we're not taking that dilution. But because Elon owns equally large amounts in each, he doesn't care.
- KSKara Swisher
He doesn't care.
- SGScott Galloway
So but meanwhile-
- KSKara Swisher
That's why he's gonna have control, right? That's why.
- SGScott Galloway
But meanwhile, SpaceX shareholders, in my view, are getting fucked to try and bail out xAI.
- KSKara Swisher
And Twitter before that. Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
And Twitter and, and bail out-
- KSKara Swisher
And Tesla at some point. [chuckles]
- SGScott Galloway
And is bailing out Twitter shareholders-
- 46:30 – 55:04
News Rundown
- KSKara Swisher
Now let's end with a news rundown of other stories I'd like to hit quickly. First, Health Secretary RFK Jr. made quite an impression as usual this week testifying before Congress, besides heavy breathing on the microphone, which was disturbing. Let's hear a clip of him defending Trump math while Senator Elizabeth Warren tries to ask a question.
- SGScott Galloway
There's two ways of calculating percentage. If you have a six-hundred-dollar drug-
- KSKara Swisher
Mr. Kennedy-
- SGScott Galloway
... and you reduce it to ten, that's a six hundred percent reduction.
- KSKara Swisher
Mr. Kennedy, I understand, but you- He just kept going on the math. Elizabeth Warren wasn't having any of it. Meanwhile, a report showing the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines has been blocked from being published in the CDC and Prevention's scientific journalists, the second time they're doing... trying to pretend these vaccines didn't work. Um, thoughts very quickly?
- SGScott Galloway
I think Hegseth is doing more damage to people outside of the US than any person in reas-recent history, and I think RFK Jr. is gonna do more-- cause more death, disease, and disability amongst Americans than any person in recent history, and President Trump has to take credit for that. But when you listen to the guy talk, he just... He absolutely has no qual- If there's one... [scoffs] I mean, you just did... You're, you're doing a show on this. If there's one place you need to defer to the experts, and folks, expertise is an actual thing, it's around health. And they have clearly decided, "All right, this guy is a fucking loose cannon talking about raccoon's genitalia," and they have basically said, "Keep this guy out of the news." What's interesting is that if he had ovaries, they would have fired him by now.
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
I mean, they seem to be quick to fire women. [chuckles]
- KSKara Swisher
Women.
- SGScott Galloway
Uh-
- KSKara Swisher
So the dirty mouth lady left the Labor Department.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah. I mean, what... The three people now that have been let go, all women. Anyway-
- KSKara Swisher
There was one guy, Fallon, who's fighting with Hegseth.
- SGScott Galloway
Oh, the N-Na-
- KSKara Swisher
But go ahead.
- SGScott Galloway
The Navy Secretary.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah. So look, i-i, I, I think RFK Jr. is... I, and I... This word's overused. RFK Jr. is dangerous.
- KSKara Swisher
Murderous.
- SGScott Galloway
And no one loves, uh, you know... N-No one loves RFK Jr. more than measles. And we're about to see, in my opinion, and we've already seen it, a potential comeback of some of the most devastating diseases which we had eradicated because of just junk science, head up your ass, um, beliefs, and conspiracy theories. The fact that this guy has been charged with the health of America and oversees the CDC is gonna set us backUh, years if not decades
- KSKara Swisher
Decades. Decades. And also, he's just such a suck-up to Trump, except let me just tell you, he's running for president too, by the way, with his heavy breathing.
- SGScott Galloway
They're all running for pre-- They all wake up in the morning-
- KSKara Swisher
He really is, and those Ma- MAGA people will stick with him.
- SGScott Galloway
They all wake up in the morning, look in the mirror and say, "Hello, Madam or Mr. President."
- KSKara Swisher
He really is-
- SGScott Galloway
All of these people
- KSKara Swisher
... cannot be our president. [laughs] Like, oh God, if I had to pick, I, I don't know what I would do. And I'm not gonna have to pick. I won't pick any of them. Um, cryp- very quickly, crypto billionaire Justin Sun has sued the Trump family's crypto venture, accusing criminal extortion for freezing digital tokens over his refusal to invest more money with the company. Over at True Social, Devin Nunes has departed as the company CEO after four years in the role where they made, I don't know, five million dollars a year. In one year, he was paid forty-six million dollars. He's an incompetent moron. Thoughts on that? Just what a surprise, Justin Sun. You tried to pay to get out of an SEC thing, and they fucked you. What a surprise. Mobsters are gonna mob. I don't know [laughs] what else to say, and the Witkoffs are involved somewhere in here, one of the children.
- SGScott Galloway
It goes to the notion of reckoning. I think it should be done to the letter of the law, but I, I think right now, uh, the, uh, many of the people running for president or just many of our, our fine people serving in government in the Congress should be outlining and putting out plans to work with, to coordinate with states' AG. That, that somewhere has to be a crime, and I think we have to start signaling we are going to pursue these crimes, and the statute of limitations, I believe, on, uh, the emoluments cl- whatever it is, this is probably, this is probably, uh, I bet there's some very serious crimes this could potentially, under defense threats. So, uh, uh, but the fact that I went to an event where Stephen Witkoff, I spoke right after him, I just can't get over, and the vice president, Vice President Gore was there. I mean, this guy is engaging in naked criminality, and so, a- and by the way, I don't think it should be political retribution. I think we also should go after some Democrats, specifically around insider trading.
- KSKara Swisher
Well, let me get to that. For the prediction market news, Kalshi has fined and suspended three congressional candidates, uh, not, uh, both Democrats and Republicans, uh, for betting on their own races. That's not allowed over there at Kalshi. Uh, thoughts? They're, they're... That... All these rules have to go in place. A lot of companies are doing them now. Um, do not be, do not be betting on stuff like this. It is insider trading. I'm glad Kalshi called it out as that.
- SGScott Galloway
It was a brilliant move on Kalshi's part. I mean, okay, so there's good and really bad here. The good is that Kalshi has said, a- and this will cost them, the politicians will come out against them. They said, "You're not allowed to do this. We're fining you." That's the good part, good for them, smart move politically, strategically for, um, Tarek, the CEO of Kalshi. This is what's wrong with it. We shouldn't need [laughs] companies to regulate themselves. We... The fact that, uh, you know, the marketplace hates a void. It hates a vacuum. There's so little regulation that the company itself is fining people. It's like it... If, what if, what if all of a sudden Chevron said, "Okay, you're manufacturing our oil and putting too much carbon into the air because we are so fucking freaked out about the lack of an, an EPA"? That's where we are right now. The only regulation that's come down the pike in this stuff has usually been regulation to stop regulation, and so when companies feel... Everybody hopes that a company's gonna weigh in and regulate themselves. That is not the way to run industry or a country.
- 55:04 – 59:36
Predictions
- KSKara Swisher
gonna do some predictions very quickly so people know. Warner Brothers shareholders just approved the deal with Paramount, although it's facing a lot of regulatory scrutiny. I suspect it'll get through, but it's gonna be a lot bumpier. And, um, so that's gonna be an interesting thing. There's a lot of pushback from Hollywood, all kinds of regulators, um, so even if it's just reached this step, um, I got my thing in the mail. I own some Warner shares. Um, thanks for the money, David. Uh, uh, it, it's, uh, it, we'll see where it goes. I, I don't know. There might, it might be a little rockier than, than people think, but they'll probably shove it through because they've only got a few months to, before Trump loses a lot of power. Your, your prediction?
- SGScott Galloway
By the way, it's, it right now on the prediction markets, it's saying that the likelihood it closes is around seventy-two percent, which is less than I thought.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah.
- SGScott Galloway
They're saying there's a real-
- KSKara Swisher
That's some, some rocky-
- SGScott Galloway
There's like a one in three chance it doesn't close.
- KSKara Swisher
Yeah, there's some rockiness there. Anyway, go ahead.
- SGScott Galloway
My prediction is that when the SpaceX value-- when the SpaceX IPO goes out-
- KSKara Swisher
Mm-hmm
- SGScott Galloway
... you will see an almost, not an equivalent, but a proportionate decline in the value of Tesla.
- KSKara Swisher
Hmm.
- SGScott Galloway
Because right now investors-
- KSKara Swisher
Wow
- SGScott Galloway
... are paying for that Elon premium, and that is a, an inflated multiple in exchange for Musk charisma and vision. And right now, Tesla's forward P/E is a hundred and eighty-five. That's 12 times higher than the auto industry. And basically they're, they're paying 12 times what anyone else is garnering in the auto industry for a car company that has posted sales declines for two years in a row. And abroad, BYD has surpassed Tesla as the lo- largest seller of EVs and eating away at European share. In addition-
- KSKara Swisher
New battery technology they're doing in China right now that looks really promising. Go ahead.
- SGScott Galloway
In addition, Robotaxi and Optimus are long shot bets that may not pay off for five years, if at all. So essentially, all of a sudden, retail investors are gonna have an opportunity to buy into some of that Elon vision and magic, but with SpaceX. And so I think that magic acolyte worship of, that creates that a hundred and eighty-five times earnings of Tesla is gonna massively deflate. 'Cause I think all of that idolatry revenue is gonna go into SpaceX.
- KSKara Swisher
Oh, that's interesting.
- SGScott Galloway
So-
- KSKara Swisher
So boom
- SGScott Galloway
... what you'll see is-
- KSKara Swisher
What if he merges it in?
- SGScott Galloway
[sighs]
- KSKara Swisher
They need robots at their data centers in space.
- SGScott Galloway
You've predicted that for a while.
- KSKara Swisher
I, I was right about the last one.
- SGScott Galloway
Yeah. You predi-- I, well, okay, that's a whole different ballgame, but if they're, assuming they maintain distinct capital structures, you're gonna basically see just a massive transfer of market cap from Tesla to SpaceX.
- KSKara Swisher
So Te- the, the n- the stuffing gets knocked out of Tesla. They're not gonna make the robots that are gonna run the data centers in space?
- SGScott Galloway
I-- look, I think industrial, industrialized robots are incredibly exciting. I, I think the notion that you're gonna have a robot in your house bringing you your soup or whatever, I just don't, I don't, I don't see that happening long term.
- KSKara Swisher
I'm gonna have that for you when you're old, in case you're in-
- SGScott Galloway
I've already got a Filipino man named Manny with well-moisturized hands lined up.
Episode duration: 59:37
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